U.S. Considers 25 Percent Tariff on Copper Imports

By Metal Miner - Mar 12, 2025

The announcement of a potential 25% tariff on copper imports by the United States has led to a significant surge in Comex copper prices and increased market volatility.

Global copper inventory levels are rising, with a notable increase in Comex stocks due to arbitrage opportunities and anticipation of tariffs, while LME and SHFE inventories show varying trends.

Economic uncertainties, including recession fears in the US and deflation in China, are adding to the risks in the copper market, despite ongoing demand from sectors like renewables and technology.



The Copper Monthly Metals Index (MMI) held sideways, although the upside bias continued to accelerate. Supported by a rise among most of its components, the index increased 2.8% from January to February.


25% Tariff Threat Boosts Comex Copper Price

Comex copper prices remained decidedly bullish, jumping even higher on the suggestion that a 25% copper tariff is on the horizon. In an address to Congress, U.S. President Trump stated, “I have also imposed a 25% tariff on foreign aluminum, copper and steel. Tariffs are about making America rich again. It is happening, and it will happen rather quickly.”

Markets had already started pricing in a potential duty after the White House launched an investigation into copper imports in late February. The move was intended to assess national security risks related to America’s foreign dependence on copper imports and followed a barrage of other tariff announcements and threats.




While the administration has yet to announce a final tariff, Trump’s statements surprised markets, which likely anticipated a much smaller duty. As with other metals, the U.S. requires copper imports to meet demand. However, U.S. reliance on imports has grown considerably over the past two decades.

According to USGS, imports accounted for roughly 45% of domestic consumption. Considering rising electrification needs and ongoing grid developments, a 25% duty, should it come to fruition, would significantly impact the domestic copper market.
Markets Remain Well-Supplied as Copper Floods U.S.

The delta between LME and Comex prices is now as wide as ever. While the two exchange contracts continue to loosely mirror one another, Comex prices hold a substantial premium over LME prices, mainly due to the ongoing tariff threats.



Source: MetalMiner Insights, Chart & Correlation Analysis Tool


On top of a rush to refill inventories ahead of potential tariffs, that arbitrage caused a sharp increase in Comex inventories starting at the beginning of the year. Stocks now sit at their highest levels in over 6 years. This trend will likely continue in the foreseeable future, or at least as long as the delta between LME and Comex prices remains high.



Comex Copper Warehouse Stocks, Source: MacroMicro

As the red metal pours into the United States, LME stocks have started to sink. Despite this, LME inventory levels still suggest a well-supplied market, with stocks holding above where they stood over recent years.

LME, SHFE, Comex Copper Warehouse Stocks, Source: MacroMicro


Meanwhile, SHFE stocks are in the middle of a rebuild. The last rebuild, in 2024, was large enough to calm markets worried about an impending supply crunch. While it remains unclear where SHFE inventories will find their peak, the current uptrend appears sharp. This has helped global stocks across the three major exchanges climb to their highest levels since 2018.
U.S. Recession, China Deflation Add Copper Price Risk

In the meantime, dark clouds have started to form regarding the health of the global economy. Recession fears have returned, with President Trump telling reporters that the U.S. is in “a period of transition.” The combination of fear and economic uncertainty caused a significant drop in the stock market as investors have started to operate with increased caution.

On the other side of the world, China continues to battle deflation. Unlike in the U.S., where inflation remains sticky, China’s CPI in February fell 0.7% year over year. Not only did it miss expectations, it dropped at its fastest pace in 13 months.

While China continues to invest heavily in renewables and copper-hungry technology, the impact of increased U.S. trade barriers and longstanding issues with its property sector remains a significant demand risk.

By Nichole Bastin

UK Industry Faces Steel Tariff Challenges

By City A.M - Mar 12, 2025, 

US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports have come into force, impacting UK exports and creating uncertainty for British businesses.

Industry leaders express disappointment and warn that the tariffs will further challenge the UK's struggling steel industry, which already faces high energy costs and subdued demand.

The UK government plans to take a "cool-headed" approach to the tariffs, engaging with the US while defending national interests, despite concerns about potential trade deficits and market flooding.

UK industry heavyweights have branded Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium imports a “difficult day for transatlantic trade” that will put “considerable pressure” on the UK’s metals sector.

Tariffs on the two widely-used commodities came into force on Wednesday morning, meaning all UK steel and aluminium exports to the US will now be subject to a 25 per cent levy.

The duties were first announced last month, and bosses from the UK’s steel and trade sectors lamented the fact the UK was unable to negotiate an exemption.

William Bain, head of trade policy at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) told City AM that the tariffs represented a “lose-lose scenario” for British and American firms.

“The introduction of tariffs will be a difficult day for transatlantic trade and will plunge businesses, in both the US and UK, into a new age of uncertainty,” he said.

Meanwhile leading figures from Britain’s metals sector branded the levies “hugely disappointing” and warned they will serve only to further hamper the UK’s struggling steel industry.

Gareth Stace, director general of UK Steel, said: “Our steel sector is not a threat to the US, but a partner to key customers.”

“These tariffs couldn’t come at a worse time for the UK steel industry, as we battle with high energy costs and subdued demand at home, against an oversupplied and increasingly protectionist global landscape,” he added.

Nadine Bloxome, chief executive of the Aluminium Federation, told City AM that her sector had already been forced to deal with preemptive shifts in trade patterns.

Semi-finished goods could soon “flood the UK market” undermining domestic producers already contending with high energy costs and burdensome regulation, she said.

On Tuesday, Keir Starmer pledged not to respond with immediate counter-tariffs, in a departure from the approach adopted by the European Union, Canada and Mexico.
UK to take “cool-headed” approach to tariffs

Downing Street’s official spokesman said the the government was engaging “closely with the US administration to make the case for the UK to be exempted from proposed tariffs”.

He added: “When it comes to the UK steel industry we remain prepared to defend the UK’s national interest where it’s right to do so. But we will continue to take a cool-headed approach to any speculation around tariffs.”

The US accounts for just five per cent of UK steel exports, and six per cent of aluminium exports, according to the Office for National Statistics, and steel trade to the US is worth over £400m.

Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds had previously warned that steel tariffs would damage both the UK and US, and Starmer’s decision not to engage in a tit-for-tat response sparked a warning from UK Steel’s Stace.

He said Britain’s steel industry could be left especially vulnerable to US and EU exporters flooding the UK, worsening its trade deficit.

By City AM

Steel at heart of new Trump trade war


By AFP
March 12, 2025


Steel is at the heart of US President Donald Trump's new tariffs - Copyright AFP Geoff Caddick

Isabel MALSANG

US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on steel target a major industry that is found in everything from cars to buildings but was already facing a range of challenges.

The 25-percent tariffs, which also hit US imports of aluminium, came into effect at midnight in Washington, hitting numerous nations from Brazil to South Korea, as well as the European Union.

Washington has framed the tariff moves as a bid to protect US steel and American workers as the sector declines and faces fierce overseas competition, especially from Asia.



– Who exports steel to the US? –



Global steel production hit 1.84 billion tonnes in 2024, a 0.9 percent drop from the previous year, according to the latest figures from the World Steel Association trade body.

China is the biggest producer, accounting for more than half of world output with more than one billion tonnes.

The United States stands in fourth place with 79.5 billion tonnes, which was down 2.4 percent from 2023.

The world’s biggest economy imported 26.4 million tonnes of the alloy in 2023, making it the second-largest market for foreign steel behind the European Union.

Canada tops the list of the United States’ biggest steel providers, exporting 5.95 million tonnes to its southern neighbour last year, according to the US Department of Commerce.

Brazil was next at 4.08 million tonnes followed by the European Union at 3.89 million tonnes, Mexico at 3.19 million and South Korea at 2.5 million.

While China’s total steel exports hit 111 million tonnes in 2024 — a nine-year high — only 470,000 tonnes were shipped to the United States.



– Why is Trump complaining? –



Global overproduction has caused steel prices to plummet in the past year.

Where the steel economy of the past half-century cycled through periods of shortage and plenty, today it faces a structural problem of too much steel being produced, experts say.

That surplus stands at around half a billion tonnes, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Many experts point to China being responsible for most of that overcapacity, and there are suspicions that Beijing has subsidised steelmakers.

This month, China said it would cut output by its massive steel industry to address overcapacity and halt plunging profits in the sector, without providing details.



– Is overcapacity to blame? –



Some analysts argue that overcapacity is not the main culprit.

Marcel Genet, a steel expert and head of the French consultancy Laplace Conseil, said the problems in the industry stem mainly from the lack of competitiveness of old blast furnaces.

Such furnaces produce steel from iron ore and coal, compared to steel made from recycled scrap in electric arc furnaces, which is much cheaper to produce.

Companies with “traditional blast furnaces don’t have the funds to finance their energy transition”, meaning they are unable to replace coal “without massive state aid”, Genet said.

Moreover, US and European steelmakers are under pressure as their exports have been dropping for the past half century as emerging countries develop their steel industries, he added.

Japan’s Nippon Steel sought to buy struggling rival US Steel, but the bid was blocked by former president Joe Biden and now Trump.

In Europe, around 50 blast furnaces remain, Genet said.

Most are operating at under 70 percent of capacity and have halted plans to invest massively in lower-emissions projects.


– What happened last time? –


Trump had already imposed tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminium during his first term in office in 2017-2021.

The last 12 blast furnaces in operation in the United States are owned by US Steel, which is based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and Cleveland Cliffs in the state of Ohio, both key states in US elections.

The move had a very limited impact, said Ruben Nizard, an economist at French insurer Credit Coface.

US imports of steel fell by 24 percent over the period and imports of aluminium by 31 percent, according to a report by the US International Trade Commission.

“No clear benefits have emerged, either in terms of employment or production, and prices have increased,” Ruben Nizard points out.

Trump metals tariffs draw swift retaliation from Canada and EU

Reuters | March 12, 2025 | 

Donald Trump (Photo by Michael Vadon, Wikimedia Commons)

Donald Trump threatened on Wednesday to escalate a global trade war with further tariffs on European Union goods, as major US trading partners said they would retaliate for trade barriers already erected by the US president.


Just hours after Trump’s 25% duties on all US steel and aluminum imports took effect, Trump said he would impose additional penalties if the EU follows through with its plan to enact counter tariffs on some US goods next month. “Whatever they charge us, we’re charging them,” Trump told reporters at the White House.

Trump’s hyper-focus on tariffs has rattled investor, consumer and business confidence and raised recession fears. He has also frayed relations with Canada, a close ally and major trading partner, by repeatedly threatening to annex the neighboring country.

Canada, the biggest foreign supplier of steel and aluminum to the United States, announced 25% retaliatory tariffs on those metals along with computers, sports equipment and other products worth $20 billion in total. Canada has already imposed tariffs worth a similar amount on US goods in response to broader tariffs by Trump.


“We will not stand idly by while our iconic steel and aluminum industries are being unfairly targeted,” Canada’s Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc said.

Canada’s central bank also cut interest rates to prepare the country’s economy for disruption.

Trump’s action to bulk up protections for American steel and aluminum producers restores effective tariffs of 25% on all imports of the metals and extends the duties to hundreds of downstream products, from nuts and bolts to bulldozer blades and soda cans.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Trump would impose trade protections on copper as well.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll found 57% of Americans think Trump is being too erratic in his effort to shake up the US economy, and 70% expect that the tariffs will make regular purchases more expensive.

EU less exposed

The 27 countries of the European Union are less exposed, as only a “small fraction” of targeted products are exported to the United States, according to Germany’s Kiel Institute.

The EU’s counter-measures, due to take effect next month, would target up to $28 billion worth of US goods like dental floss, diamonds, bathrobes and bourbon – which likewise account for a small portion of the giant EU-US commercial relationship. Still, the liquor industry warned they would be “devastating” on its sector.

Nevertheless, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc will resume talks with US officials.

“It is not in our common interest to burden our economies with such tariffs,” she said.

At the White House, Trump said he would “of course” respond with further tariffs if the EU followed through on its plan. With Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin at his side, Trump criticized the EU member country for luring away US pharmaceutical companies.

China’s foreign ministry said Beijing would safeguard its interests, while Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said the move could have a major impact on US-Japan economic ties.

Close US allies Britain and Australia criticized the blanket tariffs, but ruled out immediate tit-for-tat duties.

Brazil, the No. 2 provider of steel to the United States, said it would not immediately retaliate.
Stocks steady, companies spooked

With Wednesday’s tariff increase well flagged in advance, global stocks were barely changed on Wednesday.

But the back and forth on tariffs has left companies unnerved, and producers of luxury cars and chemicals painted a gloomy picture of consumer and industrial health. More than 900 of the 1,500 largest US companies have mentioned tariffs on earnings calls or at investor events this year, according to LSEG data.

“We are in a trade war and when a trade war begins, it tends to sustain itself and feed itself,” Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said on French television.

Shares in German sportswear maker Puma lost almost a quarter of their value after earnings underscored concerns that trade concerns are curbing American spending.

US steel producers welcomed Wednesday’s move, noting Trump’s 2018 tariffs had been weakened by numerous exemptions. The cost of aluminum and steel in the United States hovered near recent peaks.

JP Morgan’s chief economist forecast a 40% chance of a US recession this year and lasting damage to the country’s standing as a reliable investment destination if Trump undermines trust in US governance.

A steep US stocks selloff in March has wiped out all of the gains notched by Wall Street following Trump’s election.
Frayed relations with Canada

The escalation of the US-Canada trade war occurred as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau prepares to hand over power to his successor Mark Carney, who won the leadership race of the ruling Liberals last weekend.

“I’m ready to sit down with President Trump at the appropriate time, under a position where there’s respect for Canadian sovereignty and we’re working for a common approach,” Carney said while touring a steel plant in Ontario.

Other Canadian officials are due to meet with US officials in Washington on Thursday.

The US national anthem has been booed at hockey games and some stores removed US products from their shelves, even before the duties took effect. Travelers are steering clear of the United States, with bookings down 20% from a year ago.

Canadian Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson told Reuters that Canada could impose non-tariff measures such as restricting oil exports to the US or levying export duties on minerals if US tariffs persist.

(Reporting by David Lawder, Philip Blenkinsop, Andrea Shalal, Mark John, David Ljunggren, Jarrett Renshaw, Arathy Somasekhar, Shubham Kalia, Gnaneshwar Rajan and Renju Jose; Writing by Andy Sullivan; Editing by Lincoln Feast, Christina Fincher and Toby Chopra)

Column: Bad news for American beer drinkers as aluminum tariffs kick in

Reuters | March 12, 2025 | 

Image source: Rusty Clark via Flickr, under Creative Commons license CC2.0.

First some good news for US aluminum buyers. President Donald Trump has backed off from his threat to hit imports of Canadian metal with a huge 50% tariff.


Now for the bad news. As of today they will be paying a 25% import tariff, not just for Canadian metal but for all aluminum products from all countries.

Market pricing has already shifted to reflect the Trump administration’s doubling-down on tariffs as a way of reviving domestic smelting capacity.

The CME Midwest premium , reflecting the cost of unwrought aluminum delivered to a US fabricator over and above the international London Metal Exchange basis price, is trading at record highs.

The high premium will flow down the aluminum product chain until it hits the last-stage user, whether it be Ford Motor, Lockheed Martin or one of the country’s many independent brewers.

That’s how tariffs have worked to date and things won’t change while the United States remains so dependent on imports.

CME Premium Contracts for US, Europe and Japan
Tariff hangover

Trump’s original 2018 tariffs on aluminum were set at 10% and within a year the Beer Institute, which represents the nearly 8,000 brewers in the United States, estimated they had already cost the industry an extra $250 million.

A report by consultancy Harbor Aluminum found that $50 million had gone to the US Treasury, $27 million to domestic smelters and $173 million to the fabricators who convert metal to aluminum sheet for beer cans.

What really irked the Beer Institute was that the import tariff was being passed through even though US cansheet typically contains around 70% recycled metal sourced domestically.

But that’s how tariffs tend to work.

Just ask European aluminum buyers. The European Union also imposes import tariffs ranging from 3% on primary aluminum to 6% on some alloys.

Researchers from the LUISS University of Rome studied the impact on consumers and in a 2019 paper found that even though duty-exempt metal accounted for around half of all European Union imports, everyone ended up paying 6% anyway.

Producers are incentivized to “align their prices to the highest possible level – that is, the duty-paid price,” the researchers wrote.

The Beer Institute’s follow-on research in 2022, confirmed this harsh economic reality, finding that even with exemptions for key suppliers such as Canada, beer makers were still paying the full import tariff for their can metal. The cost at that stage had risen to $1.4 billion.

Import dependency

Harbor Aluminum’s finding that the main beneficiaries of tariffs to date have been first-stage processors reflects the imbalanced nature of the domestic US supply chain.

The country has a large base of semi-manufactured product makers but only four operating primary metal smelters to supply them.

The aluminum sector directly employs more than 164,000 workers but only 4,000 are engaged in upstream metal production, according to the US Aluminum Association.


Those four smelters produced 670,000 metric tons of metal in 2024, compared with US consumption of around 4.9 million tons.

Imports of primary metal totaled almost 4.0 million tons, of which 70% came from Canadian smelters.

It’s hard to see how that dynamic is going to change any time soon. Even if all the currently idled smelting capacity of around one million tons per year returned to production – a big “if” given the age and cost structure of the four mothballed plants – it would still leave a big import dependency gap.

Century Aluminum’s proposed new smelter is years away and the company hasn’t yet found a source of competitively priced power to feed the plant’s electrolysis process.

There is much more potential to lift domestic production from domestic scrap but as long as even one ton of extra imported metal is needed to meet domestic consumption, you can be sure that the tariffs will continue to determine the end price for American buyers.

Trading uncertainty

Moreover, as the markets learned on Tuesday, Trump is quite capable of raising tariffs on a presidential whim.

The changeable tariff rhetoric is causing volatility in the CME US premium, which briefly jumped to almost $1,000 per ton over the LME price on the threat of 50% tariffs on Canadian metal before retreating on news of the truce with Ontario Premier Doug Ford.


But it may also be about to generate a major realignment of global trading patterns.

Previous spikes in the US aluminum premium have pulled European premiums higher. This is logical given that Europe, which is also dependent on primary metal imports, must compete for spare units in the global market-place.

Not this time, though. Even as the US premium has surged to all-time highs, European premiums have been falling.

This is counter-intuitive, particularly since European consumers are set to lose Russian supply over the next year as part of the bloc’s latest sanctions package. If anything, the European premium should be even more sensitive to what is happening in the North American market.

The divergence suggests that some suppliers to the United States are already looking to avoid Trump’s tariff tantrums by re-directing sales to Europe.

If so, it will be good news for European beer drinkers, who may raise an aluminum can to their less fortunate American counterparts.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Editing by Jason Neely)

Aluminum premiums for US buyers hit record after Trump doubles tariffs

Reuters | March 11, 2025 | 

Aluminum ingots. Stock image.


Premiums for consumers buying aluminum on the physical market in the United States soared to record highs on Tuesday after President Donald Trump said he would double tariffs on Canadian metal to 50%.


The doubling of levies, in response to the Canadian province of Ontario placing a 25% tariff on electricity coming into the US, take effect from Wednesday.

Consumers buying aluminum on the physical market typically pay the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark aluminum price plus a premium that covers taxes, transport and handling costs.

Traders predict premiums will continue to rise as producers pass on as much of the extra costs of tariffs as they can.

Canadian smelters account for most primary and alloyed aluminum shipped to the United States. Aluminum is vital for the transport, packaging and construction industries.

About 70%, or 3.92 million metric tons of the primary and alloyed aluminum exported to the United States last year, came from Canada, according to information provider Trade Data Monitor (TDM).

The 25% tariff originally planned would have meant the premium would have had to rise to 47 cents a lb or more than $1,000 a ton to cover the extra costs for sellers, analysts have calculated.

The US Midwest duty-paid aluminum premium jumped to 45 US cents per lb, or more than $990 a metric ton, on Tuesday, a jump of nearly 20% from Monday. It has climbed more than 70% since the start of 2025.

During his previous presidency, Trump in 2018 sought to use tariffs on aluminum to encourage investment in capacity.

Given that aluminum smelters take longer to build than political election cycles, analysts were sceptical investors would be confident to spend the large capital sums needed.

“US primary aluminum production has experienced a sequential decline over the past two decades due to often thin or negative margins, and the implementation of tariffs in 2018 has not sustainably helped local supply to recover,” Macquarie analysts said in a note last month.

While premiums for US buyers have risen, industry sources have said they are likely to continue falling elsewhere as aluminum produced in countries where import levies apply are diverted.

In Europe, the duty-paid physical market premium has dropped to $240 a metric ton, the lowest since January last year. It has fallen more than 35% since the start of 2025.

(By Pratima Desai; Editing by Eric Onstad, David Goodman and Barbara Lewis)

Gold price rises as traders digest US inflation, Trump’s metal tariff

Bloomberg News | March 12, 2025 | 

Stock image.


Gold climbed as investors assessed the outlook for the US economy and the Federal Reserve interest-rate path following the latest inflation print and the start of President Donald Trump’s metal tariffs.


US consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in February, welcome news for American households who remain apprehensive about the potential for tariffs to drive costs higher.

Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports came into force Wednesday, triggering concern across export-reliant Asia and immediate reprisals from the European Union and Canada.

“I read the lower-than-expected CPI data as being favorable for commodities, and the precious sector in particular. The market will interpret this as allowing the Fed to ease sooner rather than later,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodities strategy at TD Securities.

“As tariffs hit, however, price pressures may well reemerge.” he added. Lower rates typically benefit bullion as it pays no interest.

Bullion has risen 11% this year, helped in part by haven demand emanating from uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff measures.

Spot gold was up 0.4% at $2,927.27 an ounce at 11:43 a.m. in New York. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was up 0.1%. Silver, platinum and palladium rose.

(By Yvonne Yue Li)

Trump rules out Australian steel, aluminum tariff exemptions

Bloomberg News | March 11, 2025 | 

(Stock image)


Australia has failed to secure an exemption from US steel and aluminum tariffs despite an extensive lobbying campaign by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government, in a blow to ties between the longtime allies.


White House spokesman Kush Desai confirmed in a statement that the planned levies would come into effect from midnight on Wednesday, with no exemptions for any US trading partners.

Albanese told reporters after the announcement that the Trump administration’s actions were “entirely unjustified” and an act of “economic self-harm” on the part of the US. But, he added, Australia would not take any reciprocal measures.

“This is against the spirit of our two nations’ enduring friendship and fundamentally at odds with the benefits that our economic partnership has delivered over more than 70 years,” Albanese said Wednesday in Sydney. Australia will continue to advocate for an exemption, he added.

President Donald Trump had told the Australian prime minister during talks by telephone last month that he would consider an exemption. Albanese, who must hold an election by May 17, had been under intense pressure from local lawmakers and executives to secure a carve out for Australia’s exports.

Albanese said after the announcement that he would be working with the steel and aluminum industries to diversify their exports, encouraging citizens to buy domestically produced products.

“Friends need to act in a way that reinforces to our respective populations the fact that we are friends. This is not a friendly act,” Albanese said Wednesday.

During Trump’s first term, Canberra undertook months of painstaking negotiations with Washington to secure an exemption. However, then-Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull told Bloomberg this week that he believed it would be “a lot harder” for Australia to get a similar deal this time.

White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt had told reporters earlier that Trump had decided against giving an exemption, according to Australian media reports.

“He considered it, and considered against it,” she told the Australian Broadcasting Corp., referring to Trump.

(By Ben Westcott)

Ukraine Could Import Large Volumes of U.S. LNG

By Charles Kennedy - Mar 12, 2025

Ukraine could import significant quantities of U.S. LNG via terminals in EU countries as it seeks to boost supply with domestic infrastructure damaged by Russian attacks, the head of the gas system operator told Reuters in an interview published on Wednesday.

Ukraine could import at least 4 billion cubic meters of gas between April and October this year, Dmytro Lyppa, chief executive at the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU), told Reuters.

DTEK, Ukraine’s biggest private energy company, signed in June a Heads of Agreement (HOA) with U.S. firm Venture Global for the supply of U.S. LNG to Ukraine and Eastern Europe.

Ukraine could import American LNG via the terminals in Germany, Greece, Lithuania, and Poland, according to the gas system operator.

“If we take the political aspect, it is better for us to bring as much (U.S. LNG) as possible to Poland and gradually bring it to us,” Lyppa told Reuters.

Ukraine can import natural gas via pipelines from Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary.

Ukraine will be looking to import as much U.S. LNG as possible via the European terminals, the executive said.

Due to the geopolitical situation, Ukraine could prefer U.S. LNG to supply from competitors, Qatar for example, if the different in prices is not significant, Lyppa told Reuters.

The U.S. has been seeking to broker a ceasefire deal between Ukraine and Russia in recent days. Ukraine on Tuesday “expressed readiness to accept the U.S. proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire,” says a joint statement of Ukrainian and American delegations following their meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

However, the proposed ceasefire is contingent on Russia also agreeing to it.

Russia has been targeting – and hitting – energy infrastructure in Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion in February 2022. Air strikes become more aggressive and frequent during the winter when Ukraine needs more gas and all other sources of energy to keep heating and lights on.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

U.S. Resumes Military Aid to Ukraine

By RFE/RL staff - Mar 12, 2025

US military aid to Ukraine has resumed flowing across the border from Poland after an agreement was reached in Saudi Arabia between US and Ukrainian officials.

The resumption of aid follows a brief freeze and a public clash between the US and Ukrainian presidents, causing concern among Ukrainian frontline soldiers.

A 30-day cease-fire proposal has been adopted by the US and Ukraine and presented to Moscow, with both countries expressing readiness to work on a truce road map.



US military aid to Ukraine has now started moving across the border from Poland, following an agreement between US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia, according to Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski.

Sikorski was speaking to reporters alongside his Ukrainian counterpart, Andriy Sybiha, in Warsaw, as the latter returned from the talks in Jeddah on March 12.

"I can confirm that arms deliveries via Jasionka have returned to previous levels," Sikorski said, referring to a logistics hub southeastern Poland.

Washington had announced it was freezing supplies last week after a public clash in the White House between US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The move caused deep concern in Ukraine, which Current Time documented in interviews with frontline troops.

"Give us more weapons, and we'll guarantee our security," said one soldier, identified by the call sign Sokol, serving in an artillery unit in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region.

"I think things will clear up soon, and we'll keep receiving weapons and other aid."

Sokol was right, with aid having now resumed following the nine-hour meeting that resulted with Ukraine and the United States adopting a proposal for a 30-day cease-fire.

Washington has now presented this to Moscow, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declaring, "We're going to tell them this is what's on the table."

The United States is Ukraine's single biggest arms donor, and Sokol's comments underlined how important the resumption of weapons supplies is to Ukraine's war effort.

"We use a lot of weapons produced in the United States and Europe," he said.

Another soldier in the unit, identified as Odin, said: "We're doing everything we can to keep [Russian forces] out of the Dnipropetrovsk region. We are inflicting huge losses to minimize their movements on our land."

Speaking in Warsaw, Sybiha reiterated his country's commitment to the 30-day truce.

"We are ready to create the appropriate team on our side that will work on this road map on how to get this truce, if it happens," he said.

Russian officials did not immediately respond to the Jeddah proposals.


Speaking on March 12, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, "We have planned contacts with the Americans in the coming days, during which we count on (getting)complete information."

By RFE/RL

Bolivia To Pay for Energy Imports with Crypto As Dollar Shortage Bites

By Alex Kimani - Mar 12, 2025

Bolivia's state energy company YBFB will use cryptocurrency to pay for energy imports amid dollar shortages, Reuters has reported. The shortage comes alongside a fuel crisis spurred by a lack of natural gas exports, which had led to protests across the country.

"From now on, these (cryptocurrency) transactions will be carried out," a YPFB spokesperson told Reuters.

Bolivia is not the first South American country to attempt to use crypto for energy payments. Six years ago, Maduro unveiled the infamous petro cryptocurrency under the so-called PdVSA-Crypto scheme. With Caracas strangled by Washington's economic sanctions, Maduro  launched petro as a last-ditch attempt to raise cash, vowing that Petro would "allow new forms of international financing."The embattled president revealed that 100 million petro tokens worth around $6 billion would be issued.

The petro was to be backed by Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, prompting the Venezuelan parliament to label it an illegal attempt to mortgage the country’s oil. Not to be confused with Signal Capital Management’s re-launched (and genuine) crypto the PetroDollar (XPD), Venezuela’s petro crypto was valued at $60 or 3,600 sovereign bolivars, each. As part of commodity-backed cryptos, petro was probably doomed to fail, mainly due to trust issues. Whereas Venezuela is home to the world’s largest oil reserves, few believed Maduro’s government would keep its word and actually maintain the necessary reserves to backstop the petro.

It, therefore, did not come as a surprise when the petro crypto was shattered in January 2024 and all holdings liquidated amid poor adoption and corruption scandals. Petro’s darkest hour came after officials from PDVSA, the state-owned oil company, sold crude shipments and received payments of up to $20 billion in cryptocurrency and other fiat currencies channeled through Sunacrip, the national cryptocurrency watchdog. However, these funds were never reported to the national treasury. This resulted in the arrest of former PDVSA President Tareck El Aissami and former Sunacrip head Joselit Ramirez.

Further, Sunacrip was forced to enter a restructuring period over a year ago. But Venezuela’s crypto crisis did not end there. In 2023, the country’s National Power Ministry seized over 17,000 mining machines in a bid to lower power consumption as the country went through constant blackouts, forcing hundreds of crypto miners to pull the plug on operations.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

Indonesia mulls tax hikes on miners due to budgetary pressures

Bloomberg News | March 10, 2025 | 

Image: Harita Nickel

Indonesia is proposing hiking royalties paid by miners in a bid to bolster public finances that are being strained by President Prabowo Subianto’s spending plans.


The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is considering increases on the levies paid on the production of everything from copper to coal, according to a public consultation document released over the weekend. Royalties that were formerly flat, such as those paid on nickel ore, may now rise if prices increase.

The proposal comes as Indonesia’s government grapples with the huge cost of Prabowo’s flagship initiatives, including free school lunches and the Danantara state investment fund. Ministries have been asked to cut their budgets to fund the two multi-billion dollar policies after a proposed hike to value-added tax was watered down.

For Indonesia’s sprawling mining sector, which underpins much of Southeast Asia’s largest economy, the potential tax hikes come at a difficult time. Prices of nickel and coal — the country’s two biggest exports — have already sunk to multi-year lows, forcing some producers to weigh cutting back output.

For nickel, the flat 10% tax on ore production will be replaced with levies of 14% to 19%, depending on benchmark prices determined by the government. Taxes on products produced by smelters, such as ferronickel and nickel pig iron, will also be raised, adding to cost pressures that have already caused some plants to slash output.

“The royalty increase might impact Indonesia’s dominance in the downstreaming industry,” Citigroup Inc. analyst Ryan Davis said in a note on Monday. “A generally lower margin in such pricing volatility might have provided further probability of supply response.”

Royalties paid on tin, copper and gold production will also see increases. The impact on coal miners will vary depending on their permit type, with some like PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia likely to pay lower rates, Citi’s Davis wrote.

(By Eddie Spence)

Critical Metals releases S-K 1300 report on Tanbreez rare earth project in Greenland

Staff Writer | March 12, 2025 | 1:55 pm Critical Minerals Europe Rare Earth

Tanbreez Project orebody. (Image courtesy of Critical Metals.)


Critical Metals Corp. (Nasdaq: CRML) released on Wednesday its first S-K 1300 technical report summary on the Tanbreez rare earth project in Greenland, raising its shares by over 10%.


Tanbreez is one of the largest rare earth deposits in the world hosted within – 4.7 billion metric tons of a kakortokite hard rock unit.

The maiden mineral resource estimate of 45 million metric tons resource at 0.4% total rare earth oxides (TREO), includes ~27% of heavy rare earth elements, hosted by the world’s largest currently published rare earth hard rock deposit, Critical Metals said.

Due to the company’s unique ownership structure, it must report all technical reports under the requirements set forth in Regulation S-K 1300 and the JORC Code as required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and ASX simultaneously.

Critical Metals acquired a controlling stake in Tanbreez in June 2024, hailing it as a potential “game-changing” mine project for North America’s rare earths supply chain.

“The release of our first S-K 1300 report for Tanbreez is a significant milestone for Critical Metals Corp as we are quickly advancing the development strategy for this game-changing rare earth deposit,” CEO Tony Sage said in a news release.

“We now have independent verification of what makes this asset truly exceptional, and we believe that the S-K 1300 Report’s findings will help accelerate our discussions with strategic partners and government agencies focused on establishing secure, western supply chains for these critical materials,” Sage said.

“We expect to begin our next phase of verification work in Q2 2025, with further resource drilling, an Independent preliminary economic assessment and end goal of completing our definitive feasibility study by year-end 2025.”

The company also intends to finalise the drilling results from the campaign that was completed late in 2024 and finalizing the 2025 exploration program.”

Critical Metals also owns the Wolfsburg project in Austria, which is set to become the EU’s only battery-grade lithium mine by 2027.

By market close Wednesday, Critical Metals stock was up 10.3% on the NASDAQ. The company has a $194 million market capitalization.

The full S-K 1300 report is here.

Barrick must pay dealmaker Hannam $2 million over Randgold merger, UK court rules

Reuters | March 12, 2025 | 

Tongon mine plant, Ivory Coast. (Image courtesy of Randgold Resources)


Canada’s Barrick Gold must pay British dealmaker Ian Hannam’s firm $2 million plus expenses for his work on the acquisition of gold miner Randgold Resources, London’s High Court ruled on Wednesday.


Hannam was formerly one of JPMorgan’s top rainmakers and nicknamed the “king of mining” for his record of brokering deals in the resources sector, including the merger that created BHP Billiton in 2001 and the 2012 merger of Glencore and Xstrata.

His advisory boutique Hannam & Partners sued over an agreement he says was reached shortly before Barrick’s 2018 acquisition of Randgold.

Hannam & Partners said it was promised a minimum of $10 million, with the figure to increase if the deal was worth more than $10 billion.

After Barrick and Randgold agreed a deal ultimately worth some $18 billion, Hannam asked for $18 million and was rebuffed.

Randgold’s lawyers said there was no written evidence of the alleged agreement and that Hannam & Partners was not due any payment.

Judge Simon Gleeson said in a written ruling that “no contract to provide investment advisory services was ever made”.

But he added: “The claimant’s (Hannam & Partners’) early work in promoting the transaction conferred a valuable benefit on both Randgold and Barrick.

“Both Randgold and Barrick recognized this, and intended to make some payment to the claimant in respect of the value which they felt that they had received. They estimated this as being an amount of $2 million.”

Gleeson said that Hannam & Partners was therefore entitled to $2 million plus its expenses.

Hannam & Partners’ CEO Neil Passmore said the decision was “a seminal judgment for the investment banking industry with a substantial award of fees for work undertaken on a handshake, despite the fact there was no written contract”.

Barrick also claimed the ruling as a victory, saying Hannam & Partners had been awarded “the amount Randgold proposed to pay (Hannam & Partners) in September 2018 for its limited involvement in the transaction”.

(By Sam Tobin; Editing by Mark Potter)

Offline for a Decade, Libya’s Mabruk Field Restarts Production

By Alex Kimani - Mar 12, 2025

Libya has resumed production at the Mabruk oilfield after a decade-long shutdown, the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) revealed on Wednesday. Production officially restarted on Sunday at an initial rate of 5,000 barrels per day, with plans for an increase to 25,000 bpd by July.

According to the Chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corporation, Masoud Sulaiman, Libya plans to increase its oil output from 1.4 mb/d currently to 2 mb/d in 2028. However, ramping output to that level will require considerable capital outlays: Abdulsadek estimates that Libya needs between $3 billion and $4 billion to reach its intermediate goal of oil production rate of 1.6 mb/d, adding that a new license bidding round is expected to be approved by the cabinet before the end of January. The Libyan economy relies heavily on oil, with fossil fuels accounting for more than 95% of its economic output.

"There is momentum in reconstruction and this can only be achieved by increasing the production," Abdulsadek said.

Libya is not the only OPEC producer targeting higher production: Kuwait has revealed ambitions to nearly double its oil output over the next decade.  Speaking at last year’s CERAWeek by S&P Global conference, Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah, CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corp., revealed that the country plans to ramp up crude production from ~2.4 million barrels of crude per day currently to over 4 mb/d by 2035 by cooperating with international oil majors. 

According to Sabah, the emirate has lifting costs onshore of just $10/b but has pumped the brakes on drilling due to OPEC+ production quotas. Kuwait expects the capacity additions to come from the Neutral Zone it shares with Saudi Arabia as well as its domestic fields.

Kuwait is a wealthy petroleum-based economy and the fifth richest country in the world by gross national income per capita. It’s OPEC’s 5th largest producer and is home to 101 billion barrels in proven oil reserves, the 7th largest in the world. Indeed, Kuwait’s oil reserves are considerably bigger than the U.S.’ ~70 billion barrels.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com