Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Calgary Elbow Goes Liberal

Whew this is a horse race. But the Liberals are poised to take Ralph Kleins old riding of Calgary Elbow a long time safe PC seat.

They have been in the lead since the polls started coming in. With 69/77 polls in we are predicting that the Liberals have a winning lead at 44%. Through out they have been ahead of the PC's 43% to 38%.

Like King Ralph's victories this Liberal victory is won by a few hundred votes.

The vote difference between the Alberta Alliance 5% and the Social Credit Party 2% shows vote splitting on the right. Combined they would have had 7% of the vote, while the Green Party got 6%. The NDP a measly 4%. The Independent got 1%. All told this opposition to the Tories was worth 18% of the popular vote. Another good reason for PR.

The impact of the SC, AA and Green vote on the Conservatives have been enough to allow the Liberals to squeak past.

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