And he is serious as are the folks who published his report.
Welcome to Defense and the National Interest. Our aim is to foster debate on the roles of the U.S. armed forces in the post-Cold War era and on the resources devoted to them. The ultimate purpose is to help create a more effective national defense against the types of threats we will likely face during the first decades of the new millennium.Contributors to this site are, with a few exceptions, active/reserve, former, or retired military. They often combine a knowledge of military theory with the practical experience that comes from trying their ideas in the field.
Peak Oil is now a given reality. And its potential threat to create a crisis that needs a military response is no longer thought of as the rantings of just a tiny fringe group. Instead it is a crisis scenario being seriously discussed by military and security wonks.
10/23/07 World Oil Shortage - Scenarios for Mitigation Planning, by Robert L. Hirsch. "The more you think about it, the uglier it gets." Stand by for World War III. [114 KB PDF]
“…it only requires a relatively small amount of oilto be taken out of the system to have huge economic and security implications.”
Robert M. Gates. Oil Shockwave. June 2005.
“The rate of decline after a peak is an important consideration because a decline that is more abrupt will likely have more adverse economic consequences than a decline that is less abrupt.”
GAO-07-283. February 2007.
IEA: There’s Trouble
•“The recent apparent surge in oil and gas investment is illusory, because costs have soared. Real investment in 2005 was barely higher than in 2000.”
•“This energy future is not only unsustainable, it is doomed to failure," because of underinvestment.
•"... we are on course for an energy system that will evolve from crisis to crisis…”
•Excess capacity and demand converge in 2012 (Peaking).
Find blog posts, photos, events and more off-site about:
Oil, gas, production, Peak-Oil, Hubbert,
Bush, Peak, Oil, Hubbert, USA, Technocracy, Energy