New study calls for uplisting emperor penguins to threatened on IUCN red list
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution among research groups that offer findings to support the protection of species
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A recent study usingMulti-Model Large Ensemble (MMLE) framework reveals thatemperor penguins meet the criteria for uplisting to a status ranging from Vulnerable toEndangered under the IUCN guidelines
view moreCredit: Stephanie Jenouvrier © Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Woods Hole, Mass. (March 24, 2025) – Scientists at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), in collaboration with international partners, have developed a novel approach to addressing uncertainties in ecological and environmental projections, providing a more robust assessment of extinction risk for emperor penguins. The study, which accounts for the unique life history and critical dependence of emperor penguins on the Antarctic environment, reveals that emperor penguins meet the criteria for uplisting to a category ranging from Vulnerable to Endangered under the IUCN guidelines on risk and uncertainty (IUCN, 2024). This represents a significant and urgent change from their current classification of Near Threatened, highlighting the elevated risk emperor penguins face due to future changes in their Antarctic habitat.
Conclusions from the new study "Living with Uncertainty: Using Multi-Model Large Ensembles to Assess Emperor Penguin Extinction Risk for Conservation Policy," published in the journal Biological Conservation, have significant implications for the IUCN Red List reassessment of emperor penguins.
“This is the first study to integrate natural variability in physical and biological processes and employ a wide range of Earth system and ecological models to account for numerous sources of uncertainty in projecting assessments of future population trajectories,” stated Stéphanie Jenouvrier, lead author on the paper and a senior scientist and seabird ecologist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). Jenouvrier added, “improved methods for accounting for uncertainties are urgently needed to strengthen assessments of extinction and inform conservation efforts in an uncertain world”.
The study applies a Multi-Model Large Ensemble (MMLE) framework, which is a collection of earth system simulations run using comprehensive models. This allows researchers to better understand the range of potential environmental outcomes and assess the uncertainties associated with environmental projections. Combining information from diverse models, including variability within each model, allows researchers to better understand future risks and uncertainties.
“There are quantifiable uncertainties in projections of future environmental conditions” added Jenouvrier. “Incorporating this uncertainty in ecosystem projections allows for a more complete and robust assessment of potential extinction risk.”
For this study, the team combined different types of data to create three distinct ecological models of emperor penguin populations: decades of detailed observations of individual penguins, long-term times series of chick and adult numbers, and 10 years of satellite images tracking the size of 50 colonies. They also included information on how colonies move and change over time, drawn from genetic and population data.
Using multiple research methods marks a significant advancement in ecological forecasting, setting a new standard for assessing species extinction risks under various scenarios including extreme environmental events and long-term change. Research from penguin scientists remains key for informing national and international policy related to protections for the emperor penguin. This novel multi-model research can play a critical role in the reassessment of the emperor penguin on the IUCN Red List.
Prof Phil Trathan, an author on the paper and formerly Head of Conservation Biology at the British Antarctic Survey, said “Emperor penguins are vital indicators of ecosystem health in the Antarctic, they also help inform us about wider changes in the earth system. Therefore, harnessing robust models that increase our understanding about uncertainty and risk are vital, if we are to better conserve and protect this and other species”. Trathan added “Ultimately, humans depend upon the natural world, so developing better projections of the future earth system are essential for ensuring human health and wellbeing. The tools used in this study should now help us all”.
The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) plays a critical role in informing conservation strategies for species like the emperor penguin through scientific assessments and the Red List framework. These assessments can influence conservation policies within international governance frameworks such as the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM) and the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR).
“The Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting serves as a key forum for decision-making on Antarctic conservation. This new IUCN Red List assessment provides critical scientific support for strengthening protections for emperor penguins under the Antarctic Treaty System. It also strengthens the case for establishing Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) under the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources, particularly in vital regions like the Ross Sea and the Weddell Sea, which could serve as crucial refugia for emperor penguins.” concluded Jenouvrier.
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This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 2037561. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
This research was carried out with the support of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under Grant No. 80NSSC20K1289 and 80NSSC21K1132. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NASA.
About Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) is a private, non-profit organization on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, dedicated to marine research, engineering, and higher education. Established in 1930, its mission is to understand the ocean and its interactions with the Earth as a whole and to communicate an understanding of the ocean’s role in the changing global environment. WHOI’s pioneering discoveries stem from an ideal combination of science and engineering—one that has made it one of the most trusted and technically advanced leaders in fundamental and applied ocean research and exploration anywhere. WHOI is known for its multidisciplinary approach, superior ship operations, and unparalleled deep-sea robotics capabilities. We play a leading role in ocean observation and operate the most extensive suite of ocean data-gathering platforms in the world. Top scientists, engineers, and students collaborate on more than 800 concurrent projects worldwide—both above and below the waves—pushing the boundaries of knowledge to inform people and policies for a healthier planet. Learn more at whoi.edu.
A recent study using Multi-Model Large Ensemble (MMLE) framework reveals thatemperor penguins meet the criteria for uplisting to a status ranging from Vulnerable to Endangered under the IUCN guidelines
Credit
Stephanie Jenouvrier © Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
A recent study using Multi-Model Large Ensemble (MMLE) framework reveals thatemperor penguins meet the criteria for uplisting to a status ranging from Vulnerable toEndangered under the IUCN guidelines.
Credit
Graphical Abstract: Charin Park ©Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Journal
Biological Conservation
Method of Research
Data/statistical analysis
Subject of Research
Animals
Article Title
Living with Uncertainty: Using Multi-Model Large Ensembles to Assess Emperor Penguin Extinction Risk for Conservation Policy
Article Publication Date
25-Mar-2025
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