Friday, May 10, 2024

 

Biogeographical evidence shows trickster animal folklore limited by environmental factors




YOKOHAMA NATIONAL UNIVERSITY
The Effect of Environmental Factors on Animal Distribution and on the presence of Trickster Animal Folklore 

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THE EFFECT OF MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ON ANIMAL DISTRIBUTION AND HOW THEIR PRESENCE IS NECESSARY FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF TRICKSTER ANIMAL FOLKLORE.

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CREDIT: YOKOHAMA NATIONAL UNIVERSITY





Humans have the capacity to imagine civilizations and creatures that have never existed, and our language reflects that ability. It would therefore be understandable if the stories we tell ourselves stretched beyond the bounds of local ecology. However, research has shown that many cultural artifacts and ideas are strongly affected by environmental factors.

Researchers in Japan wanted to know if the biogeography of a region could constrain motifs in animal folklore. To do this, they studied the distribution of animal trickster folklore against the distribution of the animal the folklore was based on, as well as several environmental factors. They “found that the distributions of real animals were restricted by climate conditions and that the presence of real animals restricted the distributions of trickster animals. In other words, climate conditions indirectly restrict the distribution of trickster animals in folklore. These results suggest that ecological factors could restrict the contents of folklore or, more broadly, human culture due to human cognitive biases,” said Shota Shibasaki, a researcher at the Center for Frontier Research, National Institute of Genetics, Mishima, Shizuoka Japan.

Their research was published on May 8th in the Royal Society Open Science.

The discussion on the links between the environment and cultural ideas has been going on for a long time, but the links between animal folklore and the environment has been understudied. Folklore could conceivably be free of any constraints, except perhaps the limits of human imagination. But what if there are limits on folklore? Biogeographical studies have found that climate conditions are amongst the dominant factors that determine the geographical spread of species. Could this hold true for the animal motifs in folklore?

“We hypothesized that (i) climate conditions regulate animal distribution in folklore as in nature, and (ii) there is an overlap in the distributions of real and trickster animals in folklore,” said Yo Nakawake, a researcher at Department of Social Psychology, Yasuda Women’s University, Asaminami, Hiroshima, Japan.

To test this hypothesis, the Japanese researchers looked at trickster animals using a database of folklore motifs collected from across the globe with geographical coordinates for each story. They also used two other databases that contained the distribution of the real animals and climate conditions for the regions being studied. They then classified the geographical areas into 9 different biomes that were defined by annual mean temperature and annual precipitation. Using these databases, they ran statistical analyses on the distribution of the folklore trickster animals as compared to the distribution of the real animal and the various biomes.

They found that the distribution of real animals was strongly linked to the environmental variables. They looked at the conditional probability of a trickster animal occurring if its real counterpart is present. If there is a high conditional probability found, it means that a native species is necessary for the trickster animal to occur. Of the 16 animals they looked at, 14 showed a high conditional probability, greater than 80%. This is strong evidence that the presence of the native animal is necessary for its trickster counterpart to occur.

“Given that the distributions of real animals are restricted by the annual mean temperature and annual precipitation, these climatic conditions indirectly affected the distribution of trickster animals. Our study, applying biogeographical methods to culture, paves the way to a deeper understanding of the interactions between ecology and culture,” said lecturer Ryosuke Nakadai of the Faculty of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan.

When speaking of their future research, Nakadai said, “Human culture deeply relates to nature. Since we have been losing ties to nature for decades, our cultural diversity may decrease as biodiversity does. We want to continue research to understand the feedback between nature and culture, and to conserve both types of diversity.”

This work is supported by the Foundation for the Fusion of Science and Technology to Shota Shibusaki, and The Asahi Glass Foundation to Yo Nakawake, Shota Shibusaki and Ryosuke  Nakadai.

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Yokohama National University (YNU or Yokokoku) is a Japanese national university founded in 1949. YNU provides students with a practical education utilizing the wide expertise of its faculty and facilitates engagement with the global community. YNU’s strength in the academic research of practical application sciences leads to high-impact publications and contributes to international scientific research and the global society. For more information, please see: https://www.ynu.ac.jp/english/

 

Wildfires in old-growth Amazon forest areas rose 152% in 2023, study shows


The increase was confirmed by an analysis of satellite images, contrasting with a drop in deforestation and the total number of fires detected in the Amazon



FUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO

Wildfires in old-growth Amazon forest areas rose 152% in 2023, study shows 

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FOREST FIRES RAGED IN BOCA DO ACRE IN 2023

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CREDIT: (PHOTO: DÉBORA DUTRA/CEMADEN)





Although the rate of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell in 2023, the region is faced by another challenge in the shape of fire affecting the native vegetation that has so far been spared destruction. An article published in the journal Global Change Biology warns that wildfires in old-growth forests rose 152% last year compared with 2022, despite a drop of 16% in the total number of fires throughout the Amazon and a 22% drop in deforestation.

In an analysis of satellite images, the authors detected a rise in forest wildfires from 13,477 in 2022 to 34,012 in 2023. The main cause was drought. The region has been experiencing longer and more frequent dry periods. There were prolonged droughts in 2010 and 2015-16, which left the forest more flammable and led to fragmentation of the plant cover. Another severe drought began last year and is still in progress, making the situation still worse. 

According to surveys by the National Space Research Institute (INPE), the number of fires throughout the Amazon in the first three months of 2023 was 7,861, more than in any of the previous eight years and more than half the Brazilian total (followed by the Cerrado, with 25%). Until then, the highest first-quarter number recorded was 8,240 (in 2016).

“It’s important to understand the geographic pattern of these fires. Each of the areas concerned requires a different response. Our analysis pointed to more fires in old-growth forest areas than in previous years, which is alarming not just because of the loss of vegetation, which is invariably followed by deforestation, but also because the carbon stored by the forest becomes carbon emissions when it burns,” said Guilherme Augusto Verola Mataveli, corresponding author of the article and a remote sensing specialist with INPE’s Earth Observation and Geoinformatics Division.

Mataveli is currently a visiting postdoctoral fellow doing research on greenhouse gas emissions from forest fires at the University of East Anglia’s Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research in the United Kingdom, with FAPESP’s support (projects 19/25701-8 and 23/03206-0). 

The ongoing research on which the article was based is also funded by FAPESP via four other projects (20/15230-520/08916-821/04019-4 and 21/07382-2).

Last year some members of the research group published another article showing that wildfires increased along an emerging deforestation frontier in the area of Boca do Acre in the southwest of Amazonas state, North Brazil, between 2003 and 2019 (read more at: agencia.fapesp.br/40932). 

“Old-growth forest stores larger amounts of carbon, which becomes greenhouse gas emissions when it burns, contributing to climate change. Another negative effect relates to public health problems. In October 2023, Manaus [the capital of Amazonas state] had the worst air quality of any city in the world bar one,” Mataveli said.

Burnings also increased in other states, including Pará, where the number of old-growth forest fires reached 13,804 in 2023, up from 4,217 in 2022.

The situation in Roraima is one of the worst in the region: over half the fires detected in the Amazon in 2024 have occurred in this state, which has the fifth-largest Indigenous population in Brazil (97,320) and saw 14 of its 15 municipalities declare a state of emergency in March because of fire. Schools were closed because of the smoke, and severe drought left Indigenous communities without access to food and exposed to respiratory disorders, among other problems.

In response to Agência FAPESP, the National Center for Forest Fire Fighting and Prevention (PREVFOGO), an arm of IBAMA, the main federal environmental agency, said it has been working with other institutions since November 2023 to combat and prevent forest fires in Roraima. More than 300 firefighters and four aircraft have been involved in this campaign since January.

“Climate change is a key driver of the increase in forest fires, and El Niño has also added risk owing to its links with the prolonged drought in the region. We stress the importance of the firefighting efforts of state and municipal environmental authorities in collaboration with federal agencies. This partnership is fundamental to assure strategic and effective prevention of forest fires,” the IBAMA/PREVFOGO statement said.

The Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (MMA) responded to our request for a statement by reinforcing the above points.

Resilience

Tree mortality due to fire in primary forest areas often exceeds 50% of the above-ground biomass, so that wildfires can greatly reduce the volume of carbon stored in the Amazon in the long term.

In February, carbon emissions due to fire in Brazil were the highest for 20 years, reaching 4.1 megatons (1 megaton = 1 million metric tons), with Roraima in the lead, according to the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/february-amazon-wildfires-generate-record-emissions). Copernicus is the Earth observation component of the European Union’s space program.

Forest resilience is also weakened by wildfires, affecting the forest’s capacity to create a humid microclimate below the canopy that contains and recycles moisture within the ecosystem.

Another point made by the researchers in the article is that the increase in invasive wildfires due to heightened forest flammability poses a significant challenge to traditional subsistence farmers who normally use controlled fire as a land management strategy. 

According to Luiz Aragão, leader of the research group and last author of the article, “The Amazon is becoming more vulnerable environmentally, socially and economically as time passes without effective solutions to the fire problem”. Although deforestation rates have fallen lately, the area affected continues to expand.

“We predicted this in an article by our group published in 2010 in the journal Science,” Aragão said. “Both deforested areas and areas where the forest is now being destroyed are active sources of fire ignition by humans. Deforestation fragments the landscape, creating more boundaries between forest areas and open areas, and making old-growth forest areas more permeable to fire. The aggregate impact of extreme droughts like the current one, alongside landscape fragmentation, continuous use of fire, more areas of fire-degraded forest, illegal logging and edge effects will make the forest increasingly flammable. Urgent measures are needed to mitigate fires and maintain the Amazon as Brazil’s greatest asset to achieve sustainable national development.”

The article also advocates more command-and-control operations, more numerous and better-equipped fire brigades, and constant improvement of monitoring systems. 

“With the use of artificial intelligence, we can try to develop systems that not only show where fires are occurring but also predict where they’re most likely to break out in future so that we can focus preventive action on specific areas,” Mataveli added.

About São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)

The São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) is a public institution with the mission of supporting scientific research in all fields of knowledge by awarding scholarships, fellowships and grants to investigators linked with higher education and research institutions in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. FAPESP is aware that the very best research can only be done by working with the best researchers internationally. Therefore, it has established partnerships with funding agencies, higher education, private companies, and research organizations in other countries known for the quality of their research and has been encouraging scientists funded by its grants to further develop their international collaboration. You can learn more about FAPESP at www.fapesp.br/en and visit FAPESP news agency at www.agencia.fapesp.br/en to keep updated with the latest scientific breakthroughs FAPESP helps achieve through its many programs, awards and research centers. You may also subscribe to FAPESP news agency at http://agencia.fapesp.br/subscribe.

 

Worker rights are one of the least protected human rights, new research reveals



Data project provides ‘report card’ for countries 

around the world



BINGHAMTON UNIVERSITY

Persistent Solidarity Forum 

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UNIVERSITY OF JOHANNESBURG CLEANERS AND OTHER ORGANIZATIONS SUPPORTING THE PERSISTENT SOLIDARITY FORUM MARCH IN DEMAND OF A FAIR LIVING WAGE FOR THE WORKERS.

 

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CREDIT: "PROTESTERS: 'WORKERS DESERVE A LIVING WAGE'" BY MERAJ CHHAYA IS LICENSED UNDER CC BY 2.0..




BINGHAMTON, N.Y. -- Worker rights are among the least protected human rights in the world, according to new research from faculty at Binghamton University, State University of New York.

The findings are part of a new report published by the CIRIGHTS Data Project, the largest human rights dataset in the world. Since 1981, the project has ranked countries around the world on their respect for human rights, providing an annual “report card” on 25 internationally recognized human rights. The project is co-led by Binghamton University Professor of Political Science David Cingranelli.

According to their latest report, published in Human Rights Quarterly, the five countries with the best overall scores were Canada, Sweden, New Zealand, Norway and Portugal. The five countries with the lowest overall scores were Iran, Syria, North Korea, China and Iraq.

Worker rights, including the right to form a trade union and the right to bargain collectively – are among the least protected human rights. Worker rights are “always violated to some extent,” wrote the researchers.

“Previous research shows that it is unlikely that governments protect the rights to an adequate minimum wage, occupational health and safety, or reasonable limitations on work hours (including voluntary overtime work) unless they allow workers to form independent trade unions and to bargain collectively,” said Cingranelli. “In other words, the right to unionize, bargain, and strike are the gateway rights. If they are protected, all other labor rights are likely to be protected as well. But globally, the gateway rights are in decline.”

Cignarelli said that while democratic and rich countries protect labor rights more than others do, economic inequality has increased almost everywhere.

“Economic globalization has increased competition among nations, which has led governments to favor corporations over workers in conflicts between the two,” said Cignarelli.

In the least economically developed countries, large agricultural, mining and oil extraction companies have their way with workers, said Cignarelli. This also happened during the early stage of industrialization in the United States.

“It is important to remember that companies and workers typically take adversarial positions about how much attention corporate leaders should pay to what workers want concerning the terms and conditions of their work,” he said. “Corporate leaders typically prefer to distribute most of the profit from their activities to shareholders, not workers.”

Stringent labor regulations in one country can cause companies to change their locations. Cignarelli noted that it’s the role of government to make sure that workers have a fair chance to have their concerns heard.

“Without government policies protecting workers, companies can do whatever they want to keep unions out,” Cignarelli said.

 

Why so many jobs are boring: New MSU study identifies large interest gaps in US labor market




MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY





MSU has a satellite uplink/LTN TV studio and Comrex line for radio interviews upon request.

EAST LANSING, Mich. – A recent study out of Michigan State University found large gaps between people’s career interests and U.S. job demands. These gaps indicate that the interest demands of the U.S. labor market differ drastically from the supply of interested people, revealing how many people have unfulfilled interests at work.

The study, published in the Journal of Business and Psychology, is the first to look at labor gaps using career interests instead of skills or knowledge. The study used a national dataset comprising 1.21 million U.S. residents alongside national employment data from the U.S. Department of Labor.

“We know that interest fit predicts higher job performance and satisfaction, so these results show that many people are not able to optimize their productivity and well-being at work,” said Kevin Hoff, lead author of the study and assistant professor in MSU’s Department of Psychology.

The study found that “artistic” was the most popular interest among people, but it is also the least demanded among jobs with only 2% of jobs involving artistic interests. By contrast, the least popular interest among people was “conventional or otherwise described as systematic and detail-oriented work,” but this interest is highly demanded among jobs.

Interest gaps were also larger at lower education levels. This suggests that higher education can provide more opportunities to achieve interest fit at work.

“Interests drive knowledge and skill development, which support the success of the labor force,” added Hoff. “People need to be given more information about labor demands during career assessments so they can explore careers that not only provide a good fit, but also have available jobs.”

To test the robustness of their results against future projections, the study compared job demands in 2014 and 2019 to projections for 2029 and found consistent interest gaps in each of these years. As artificial intelligence continues to impact jobs, the researchers expect to see adjustments happening in the labor market. However, due to the large size of the interest gaps, many jobs will likely remain boring for at least the near future.  

By Shelly DeJong

Read on MSUToday.

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Michigan State University has been advancing the common good with uncommon will for more than 165 years. One of the world’s leading public research universities, MSU pushes the boundaries of discovery to make a better, safer, healthier world for all while providing life-changing opportunities to a diverse and inclusive academic community through more than 400 programs of study in 17 degree-granting colleges.

For MSU news on the web, go to MSUToday or twitter.com/MSUnews.

 

Scientists unlock key to breeding ‘carbon gobbling’ plants with a major appetite



AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY






The discovery of how a critical enzyme “hidden in nature’s blueprint” works sheds new light on how cells control key processes in carbon fixation, a process fundamental for life on Earth.

The discovery, made by scientists from The Australian National University (ANU) and the University of Newcastle (UoN), could help engineer climate resilient crops capable of sucking carbon dioxide from the atmosphere more efficiently, helping to produce more food in the process.

The research, published in Science Advances, demonstrates a previously unknown function of an enzyme called carboxysomal carbonic anhydrase (CsoSCA), which is found in cyanobacteria – also called blue-green algae – to maximise the microorganisms’ ability to extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Cyanobacteria are commonly known for their toxic blooms in lakes and rivers. But these little blue-green bugs are widespread, also living in the world’s oceans.

Although they can pose an environmental hazard, the researchers describe them as “tiny carbon superheroes”. Through the process of photosynthesis, they play an important role in capturing about 12 per cent of the world’s carbon dioxide each year.

First author and PhD researcher Sacha Pulsford, from ANU, describes how remarkably efficient these microorganisms are at capturing carbon.

“Unlike plants, cyanobacteria have a system called a carbon dioxide concentrating mechanism (CCM), which allows them to fix carbon from the atmosphere and turn it into sugars at a significantly faster rate than standard plants and crop species," Ms Pulsford said.

At the heart of the CCM are large protein compartments call carboxysomes. These structures are responsible for sequestering carbon dioxide, housing CsoSCA and another enzyme called Rubisco.

The enzymes CsoSCA and Rubisco work in unison, demonstrating the highly efficient nature of the CCM. The CsoSCA works to create a high local concentration of carbon dioxide inside the carboxysome that Rubisco can then gobble up and turn into sugars for the cell to eat.

Lead author Dr Ben Long, from UoN, said: “Until now, scientists were unsure how the CsoSCA enzyme is controlled. Our study focused on unravelling this mystery, particularly in a major group of cyanobacteria found across the globe. What we found was completely unexpected.

"The CsoSCA enzyme dances to the tune of another molecule called RuBP, which activates it like a switch.

“Think of photosynthesis like making a sandwich. Carbon dioxide from the air is the filling, but a photosynthetic cell needs to provide the bread. That's RuBP.

“Just like you need bread to make a sandwich, the rate of turning carbon dioxide into sugar depends on how fast RuBP is supplied.

“How fast the CsoSCA enzyme supplies carbon dioxide to Rubisco is dependent on how much RuBP is present. When there’s enough, the enzyme is switched on. But if the cell runs out of RuBP, the enzyme is switched off, making the system highly tuned and efficient.

“Surprisingly, the CsoSCA enzyme has been embedded in nature’s blueprint all along, waiting to be discovered.”

The scientists say engineering crops that are more efficient at capturing and utilising carbon dioxide would provide a huge boost for the agricultural industry by vastly improving crop yield while reducing the demand for nitrogen fertilizer and irrigation systems.

It would also ensure the world’s food systems are more resilient to climate change.

Ms Pulsford said: “Understanding how the CCM works not only enriches our knowledge of natural processes fundamental to Earth’s biogeochemistry but may also guide us in creating sustainable solutions to some of the biggest environmental challenges the world is facing.” 

 

The American Journal of Health Economics releases a special issue on health equity


FOR PROFIT HEALTH CARE 

UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO PRESS JOURNALS






The May 2024 issue of the American Journal of Health Economics collects articles on the topic of health equity. The edition was inspired in part by the COVID-19 pandemic, writes guest editor Mónica García-Pérez, and the ways in which that “health crisis exposed the sources of disparities among different US populations that affect access to health care, quality of care, and final health outcomes.”

Consisting of five papers, the issue devotes particular attention to the topics of “race/ethnicity, sexual orientation, gender identity, and disability topics in health economics.”

Access to Gender-Affirming Care and Transgender Mental Health: Evidence from Medicaid Coverage” discovers a positive correlation between gender-affirmation coverage and the mental health of low-income transgender people.

Gender Identity, Race, and Ethnicity-Based Discrimination in Access to Mental Health Care: Evidence from an Audit Correspondence Field Experiment” identifies a pattern of discrimination by mental health providers against patients with Black or Latino-sounding names.

Same-Sex Marriage and Employer Choices about Domestic Partner Benefits” finds that the expansion of same-sex marriage has led, conversely, to a reduction in same-sex domestic partner benefits offered through private employers.

Administrative Burdens and Child Medicaid and CHIP Enrollments” describes how increased administrative burdens like eligibility checks and automatic disenrollment lead to diminished insurance access for the children of Hispanic, immigrant, and non-citizen parents.

Finally, “Heterogeneous Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Emergency Department Visits and Payer Composition among Older Adults by Race and Ethnicity” reports the effect of Affordable Care Act expansion on Black and Hispanic patients, concluding that states with no expansion saw a greater number of emergency room visits.

The special edition, notes García-Pérez, fills several gaps in health equity scholarship. Additionally, the issue aligns itself with the commitment of the health equity discipline to “addressing the upstream influences of detrimental socioeconomic conditions,” and to giving all people “a fair opportunity to reach their health potential.”

 

Research explores ways to mitigate the environmental toxicity of ubiquitous silver nanoparticles




OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY





CORVALLIS, Ore. – Silver has long been used to thwart the spread of illness and in recent years silver nanoparticles have been incorporated into products ranging from sanitizers, odor-resistant clothes and washing machines to makeup, food packaging and sports equipment.

Nanoparticles are tiny pieces of material ranging in size from one- to 100-billionths of a meter. In addition to their antimicrobial properties, silver nanoparticles are industrially important as catalysts and in electronics applications.

Despite their ubiquity, little is known about their environmental toxicity or how it might be mitigated.

Researchers at Oregon State University have taken a key step toward closing the knowledge gap with a study that indicates the particles’ shape and surface chemistry play key roles in how they affect aquatic ecosystems.

The findings, published in Nanomaterials, are important because they suggest silver nanoparticles can be produced in formats that preserve their beneficial properties while limiting environmentally negative ones.

Scientists led by Marilyn Rampersad Mackiewicz and Stacey L. Harper assessed how spherical and triangular-shaped silver nanoparticles with five different surface chemistries affected their uptake and toxicity in a laboratory microcosm of bacteria, algae, Daphnia and embryonic zebrafish.

Daphnia are tiny crustaceans, and zebrafish are a small freshwater species that go from a cell to a swimming fish in about five days.

Zebrafish are particularly useful for studying the development and genetics of vertebrates, including the effects of environmental contaminants and pharmaceuticals on early embryonic development. They share a remarkable similarity to humans at the molecular, genetic and cellular levels; embryonic zebrafish are of special interest because in addition to developing quickly, they are transparent and can be easily maintained in small amounts of water.

The authors note that hundreds of tons of silver nanoparticles are produced every year for commercial uses, meaning it’s inevitable some will end up in aquatic environments.

“Silver nanoparticles are not regulated by the Food and Drug Administration and not much is known about their toxicity except for the free silver ions that can result from surface oxidation of the nanoparticles,” said Mackiewicz, assistant professor of chemistry. “Free silver ions are known to be toxic and in this paper we found a way to study the toxicity of silver nanoparticles and how they impact the environment irrespective of poisonous silver ions.”

Mackiewicz, Harper and collaborators in the OSU colleges of Science, Engineering and Agricultural Sciences found silver nanoparticles negatively affect some species but not others.

“For example, there is a decrease in bacterial and Daphnia growth, and the size and shape of the particles can contribute to that, but the nanoparticles didn’t affect zebrafish,” she said. “And nanoparticles coated in lipids, organic compounds found in many natural oils and waxes, did not release significant amounts of silver ions – but they exhibited the greatest toxicity to Daphnia magna, the most sensitive species in the microcosm.”

Overall, Mackiewicz said, the study showed that silver nanoparticles’ shape and surface chemistry can be manipulated to achieve specific objectives necessary for better understanding and mitigating the risks associated with silver nanoparticles. A related study awaiting publication, she added, shows that small, spherical nanoparticles are more toxic than triangles or cubes.

Nanoparticles are the latest format, Mackiewicz notes, for an element that throughout history has been used to restrict the spread of human disease via incorporation into items used in everyday life. Its earliest recorded use for therapeutic purposes dates back 3,500 years.

During the Middle Ages, wealthy families used so many silver vessels, plates and other products that they developed bluish skin discolorations known as argyria, a condition believed to have led to the term “blue blood” as a description for members of the aristocracy.

Collaborating with Mackiewicz and Harper on the study were OSU researchers Bryan Harper and Arek Engstrom.

The National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Health provided funding for the research.

 

Net zero plans show limited climate ambition on ‘residual’ emissions



UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA




New research by the University of East Anglia (UEA) reveals what countries think will be their most difficult to decarbonise sectors when they reach net zero, with agriculture expected to be responsible for the largest remaining emissions.

Once countries have taken the ‘easy’ steps to get to net zero - such as switching to more renewable electricity, electric cars, and heat pumps for homes - they are still left with some sources of emissions. 

These ‘residual’ emissions continue to be emitted at the point of net zero - but their effect is cancelled out or moved elsewhere, for example by taking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere using methods of carbon dioxide removal, or to other countries via international offsets.

Harder to decarbonise areas include aviation, agriculture, and industry, with fewer alternatives to fossil fuels. Residual emissions are expected to come from these ‘hard-to-abate’ sources, which face technical barriers to reducing them beyond a certain level.

By sector, emissions from agriculture, mainly from livestock, are anticipated to be the largest contributor - on average 36% of the total for developed countries. The findings are published today in the journal One Earth.

The team, from the Schools of Environmental Sciences, Global Development and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at UEA, analysed national climate strategies for 71 countries. Only 26 quantify residual emissions, with most aiming to reach net zero by 2050.

The researchers mapped the reasons why a country claims a certain emission source is residual or otherwise hard-to-abate, finding that many see residual emissions as an inevitability, instead of a focus of further climate policy efforts, innovating further solutions or exploring other policy options, such as reducing demand.

Lead author Harry Smith, a Leverhulme Trust Doctoral Scholar at UEA, said current plans showed limited ambition in dealing with residual emissions: “Net zero targets have rapidly become the new norm of national climate policy. They imply a need to compensate for the remaining residual emissions through the deployment of carbon dioxide removal methods. Yet governments are only now exploring what this balance could or should be.  

“High residual emissions, paired with greater deployment of carbon dioxide removal, may allow countries to retain or expand fossil fuel use and production. Given the limits of carbon dioxide removal, this risks the credibility of their target and may jeopardise global climate goals.

“Similarly, treating residual emissions as an inevitability, risks de-emphasising these emissions, locking-in high emitting activities and infrastructure, and locking-out other ways to reduce emissions.”

The study is the first to look in this level of detail, and for this number of net zero plans that describe what countries think will be their difficult to decarbonise sectors, and how low they aim to get their emissions before cancelling out the remainder with carbon dioxide removal. 

The authors found that some countries, such as the UK and Spain, are ambitious, including scenarios that reduce their emissions by upwards of 90% compared to when their emissions started falling, leaving less than 10% of their emissions as residual and cancelled out by carbon dioxide removal.

However, others, such as Canada, are less ambitious and have drawn up scenarios that retain greater fossil fuel use and production, reducing their emissions by just over a half before cancelling out the remainder.  

For developed countries, residual emissions are sizeable, on average 21% when compared to when their greenhouse gas emissions started falling. This average hides a large range, however: they could be as low as 5% or as high as 52%.

As well as making up the majority of residual emissions, agriculture represents the sector which sees the least progress between now and net zero, with a reduction of only 37% on average for the same countries. Meanwhile industrial emissions from the manufacturing of goods, emissions commonly discussed as residual and hard-to-abate, are reduced by 70% on average.

“Our study shows that countries vary greatly in how they envision what getting to net zero means for them,” said co-author Dr Naomi Vaughan. “Some use the reporting of emission and carbon removals together to hide their weaker emissions reduction ambition by betting on currently very niche carbon removal methods. We suggest that strengthening the reporting requirements would improve transparency. 

“This work highlights that what emissions remain when countries aim to reach net zero should be put under more scrutiny. A better understanding is needed of which emissions are truly ‘difficult to decarbonise’ and which could be addressed through changes to demand, for example dietary changes, reducing flying, the circular economy, alongside more investment in research and innovation.”

The study examined all national climate strategies submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change before October 2023, as well as similar strategies submitted to the European Commission.

‘Residual emissions in long-term national climate strategies show limited climate ambition’, Harry Smith, Naomi Vaughan and Johanna Forster, is published in One Earth on May 9.