Remote Nagurskoye military base is key to Russia’s power across Arctic

Russia’s northernmost military base is bristling with missiles and radar

Moscow has sought to assert its influence over wide areas of the Arctic

Associated Press
Published: 19 May, 2021

A radar facility on the Alexandra Land island near Nagurskoye, Russia. Photo: AP

During the Cold War, Russia’s Nagurskoye airbase was little more than a runway, a weather station and a communications outpost in the Franz Josef Land archipelago.

It was a remote and desolate home mostly for polar bears, where temperatures plunge in winter to minus-42 Celsius (43 degrees below zero Fahrenheit) and the snow only disappears from August to mid-September.

Now, Russia’s northernmost military base is bristling with missiles and radar and its extended runway can handle all types of aircraft, including nuclear-capable strategic bombers, projecting Moscow’s power and influence across the Arctic amid intensifying international competition for the region’s vast resources.

The shamrock-shaped facility – three large pods extending from a central atrium – is called the “Arctic Trefoil” and is painted in the white-red-and-blue of the national flag, brightening the otherwise stark vantage point on the 5,600km (3,470-mile) Northern Sea Route along Russia’s Arctic coast. Other buildings on the Island, which is called Alexandra Land, are used for radar and communications, a weather station, oil storage, hangars and construction facilities.

Russia has sought to assert its influence over wide areas of the Arctic in competition with the United States, Canada, Denmark and Norway as shrinking polar ice from the warming planet offers new opportunities for resources and shipping routes. China also has shown an increasing interest in the region, believed to hold up to one-fourth of the Earth’s undiscovered oil and gas.

Bastion anti-ship missile systems on the Alexandra Land island near Nagurskoye, Russia. Photo: AP

Russian PresidentVladimir Putin has cited estimates that put the value of Arctic mineral riches at US$30 trillion.

Tensions between Russia and the West will likely loom large over Thursday’s meeting of the Arctic nations’ foreign ministers in Reykjavik, Iceland, where Moscow is set to take a rotating chairmanship in the Arctic Council.

“We have concerns about some of the recent military activities in the Arctic,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday after arriving in Iceland for talks with foreign ministers of the eight members of the Arctic Council. “That increases the dangers of accidents and miscalculations and undermines the shared goal of a peaceful and sustainable future for the region. So we have to be vigilant about that.”

A more accessible Arctic becomes proving ground for US-China jockeying
6 May 2021


The Russian base, which sits about 1,000km south of the geographic North Pole, was built using new construction technologies as part of Kremlin efforts to bolster the military amid spiralling tensions with the West following Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.

A Russian Il-76 military cargo plane on Alexandra Land island near Nagurskoye, Russia. Photo: AP

The following year, Russia submitted a revised bid for vast territories in the Arctic to the United Nations, claiming 1.2 million sq km of Arctic sea shelf, extending more than 650km from shore.

While the UN pondered that claim and those from other nations, Russia has said it sees the Northern Sea Route as its “historically developed national transport corridor,” requiring authorisation from Moscow for foreign vessels to navigate along it. The US has dismissed Russia’s claims of jurisdiction on parts of the route as illegitimate.

Moscow has declared its intention to introduce procedures for foreign ships and assign Russian pilots for guidance along the route, which runs from Norway to Alaska.

Denmark to spend more on strengthening Arctic defence
12 Feb 2021


As part of that effort, Russia has rebuilt and expanded facilities across the polar region, deploying surveillance and defensive assets. A base in the similar trefoil shape and patriotic colours to the one in Nagurskoye is on Kotelny Island, between the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea on eastern end of the shipping route, also with missiles and radar.

Admiral Alexander Moiseyev, chief of Russia’s Northern Fleet, said last week that Moscow has the right to set navigation rules along the shipping lane.

“Practically the entire Northern Sea Route goes through Russia’s territorial waters or the country’s economic zone,” Moiseyev told reporters aboard the Peter the Great missile cruiser. “The complex ice conditions make it necessary to organise safe shipping, so Russia insists on a special regime of its use.”

Nato is increasingly worried about the growing Russian military footprint in the Arctic, and Washington sent B-1 bombers to Norway this year.

“Increased Russian presence, more Russian bases in the High North, has also triggered the need for more Nato presence, and we have increased our presence there with more naval capabilities, presence in the air, and not least, the importance of protecting transatlantic undersea cables transmitting a lot of data,” Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said.

‘Arctic is dying’: grim warning after biggest North Pole mission
12 Oct 2020


Moiseyev fretted about the US military assets in Norway, saying it has led to an “increase of the conflict potential in the Arctic”.

The Russian Foreign Ministry last week fumed at a US nuclear submarine calling at a Norwegian port, saying it reflected what it described as “Oslo’s course for the militarisation of the Arctic”.

Since Putin visited the Nagurskoye base in 2017, it has been strengthened and expanded. It now houses a dedicated tactical group that operates electronic surveillance, air defence assets and a battery of Bastion anti-ship missile systems.

A runway has been extended to accommodate all types of aircraft, including Tu-95 nuclear-capable strategic bombers, said Major-General Igor Churkin, who oversees air force operations at the base.

Coronavirus: Brazil senators say anti-China views hurt country’s access to Covid-19 vaccines


In parliamentary inquiry into president’s handling of coronavirus, senators blamed Bolsonaro and his inner circle for vaccine ingredient delays

The pandemic has claimed over 435,000 lives in Brazil but just one in eight adults have been fully vaccinated

Reuters
Published:  19 May, 2021

A surge of Covid-19 cases this year has raised Brazil’s death toll to more than 435,000, and the country is short of vaccines. Some 85 per cent of the vaccines administered in Brazil were from China’s Sinovac. Photo: AFP

Brazilian senators on Tuesday accused the country’s former foreign minister of undermining efforts to obtain Covid-19 vaccines after he used anti-China rhetoric during the pandemic.

In a parliamentary inquiry into far-right President Jair Bolsonaro’s handling of the world’s second-deadliest outbreak of the novel coronavirus, senators blamed the president and his inner circle for delays in deliveries from China of active ingredients to make Sinovac Biotech’s vaccine in Brazil.

Ernesto Araujo, who was replaced as foreign minister in March, told senators on Tuesday (Brazil time) that Bolsonaro’s disparagement of the Chinese vaccine did not affect relations with Brazil’s largest trade partner or delay vaccine supplies.

Araujo last year published an article entitled “The Comunavirus Has Arrived” where he argued that the novel coronavirus was part of a plan for global domination.

In the hearing, he denied the article disparaged China.

“It was not a reference to coronavirus but to an ideological virus, coined by another author, that creates the conditions for a global communist society,” he told the Senate commission.

Senator Katia Abreu, a farmer and former agriculture minister, said Araujo’s views and those of the Bolsonaro government had hurt exports to China, where the approval of dozens of Brazilian meatpacking plants had been held up in Beijing.

China export delay halts Sinovac Covid-19 vaccine production in Brazil
13 May 2021


Araujo said his criticism of China’s ambassador to Brazil last year was not an attack on China but a complaint about the diplomat’s “unacceptable” tweet, which said the Bolsonaro family was a “huge poison” for Sino-Brazil relations.

The diplomat’s tweet, which he quickly deleted, was prompted by the president’s son Eduardo Bolsonaro, then chair of the House foreign relations committee, blaming authoritarianism in China for preventing faster action against the pandemic.

Attacks on China by members of Bolsonaro’s inner circle further soured diplomatic relations last year. The spat was laid to rest when Bolsonaro called President Xi Jinping and the two presidents agreed to work together to fight the coronavirus.

A surge of Covid-19 cases this year has raised Brazil’s death toll to more than 435,000, and the country is short of vaccines. Just one in eight Brazilian adults have been fully vaccinated. Through April, 85 per cent of the vaccines administered in Brazil were from China’s Sinovac.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s Butantan biomedical institute said on Tuesday China would reduce its shipment of pharmaceutical ingredients for producing Covid-19 vaccines next week to 3,000 litres (790 gallons) from 4,000.

China critic Bolsonaro links pandemic to ‘biological warfare’
6 May 2021


This means the shipment scheduled for May 26 would now make 5 million doses of the Coronavac shot, Butantan said, instead of the 7 million Sao Paulo state Governor Joao Doria had tweeted on Monday.

Butantan, which is backed by the state of Sao Paulo, is producing the Coronavac vaccine with China’s Sinovac.

US exports to China grow at ‘expense’ of Australia after Beijing’s trade ban

Following Beijing’s ban on a range of Australian products, the US has been steadily ‘backfilling’ the void left by its ally

Political observers say the US will prioritise its own economic needs ahead of its allies, including Australia, despite close ties

Su-Lin Tan
Published: 19 May, 2021

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said Washington will not desert Australia in its dispute with China. Photo: AP

US exports to China of wine, cotton, log timber and wood have increased over the past year amid a block by Beijing on the same products from Australia, trade data shows.

Exports of American coal have also risen since February after Australian shipments of the raw material were banned in October last year.

According to some analysts, the trade data suggests the United States is prioritising its own economic interests over its ally’s, despite a promise from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken last week that Washington would not leave Australia to face economic coercion from Beijing.


Trade ‘only one part of the battle‘ in China-Australia dispute, says legal expert Bryan Mercurio

“I doubt there is much substance to such comments beyond its signalling value, because when it comes to trade, Australia and the US do not always share the same interests,” said Chengxin Pan, an associate professor of international relations at Deakin University.

“In fact, as the case of China’s banning Australian coal indicates, Australia’s loss has turned out to be the US’ gain because the latter has been able to increase its coal exports to China at the expense of Australia.”

Former Australian ambassador to China Geoff Raby said the comments amounted to the “usual empty reassurances made to allies to keep their resolve” and proof of Washington’s support will come when the “US refuses to backfill into the Chinese market where Australian trade has been blocked”.

What happened over the first year of the China-Australia trade dispute?
20 Apr 2021


US monthly exports of wine, cotton, log timber and wood have been climbing since February last year, before the coronavirus pandemic broke out globally. But American coal exports, while only a small fraction of Australia’s pre-ban exports to China, have accelerated quickly in 2021, doubling in March over February.

In February, the US exported over 466,000 litres (123,104 gallons) worth of wine in containers of two litres or less to China, worth about US$2.3 million, compared to about US$740,000 a year earlier.

China officially slapped duties of up to 218.4 per cent on Australian wines in containers of up to two litres in March, crippling the sector.

While there have been monthly fluctuations over the past year, US exports of wine to China are on an upwards trajectory.

Wine Australia, the national industry association, said last month the total value of its products that managed to clear Chinese customs between December and March was A$12 million (US$9.3 million) – a fraction of the A$325 million (US$253 million) total that entered the country in the same period a year earlier.

Before the conflict, China imported nearly 40 per cent of Australia’s wine exports, an export industry worth around A$1 billion (US$779) a year.

The US has also been boosting its shipments of wood and timber products.

Coal is seen at the Port of Newcastle in New South Wales, Australia. Photo: Bloomberg

China blocked log timber exports from six of Australia’s seven states and territories late last year. The US, meanwhile, increased the value of its wood product exports to China to US$153 million in February, compared to US$91 million a year earlier. Like wine, wood exports have fluctuated, but are on an upwards trajectory.

After Beijing unofficially cut off Australian cotton last November, the US exported US$153 million in cotton to China in February, up from just over US$100 million a year earlier.

The steady uptick in US exports will go towards China’s purchasing commitments under the phase one trade agreement signed last January. China committed to buying US$200 billion in additional goods and services over 2020-21 on top of 2017 levels, although it is
lagging behind targets.

Tensions between China and Australia, which started when Canberra pushed for an international inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus, show no sign of easing.

Australia ditched diplomacy for ‘adversarial approach’ to China and ‘a pat on the head’ from US

On Tuesday, China’s top planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said Australia should bear full responsibility for the recent
suspension of a high-level economic dialogue between the two nations.

“In recent times, the Australian government has blocked China-Australia investments without reason hurting mutual trust between the two countries and affecting the confidence of trading businesses. We have no choice but to respond accordingly,” NDRC spokesman Jin Xiandong said.

Australian Minister for Trade Tourism and Investment Dan Tehan expressed his disappointment at the axing of the dialogue, saying the country remained open to engaging at the ministerial level.


Additional reporting from Amanda Lee

MYANMAR
Buddhist monks in Myanmar divided over military coup
Caroline Kwok

Anti-coup protesters in Myanmar have been mobilising on the streets daily for three months since the military seized power on February 1, 2021. Joining the ranks are several largely young monks who have defied religious edicts against political activity to condemn the generals. But Myanmar's Buddhists are split on the coup, with some prominent hardline religious leaders defending the junta who have used lethal violence on hundreds of protesters.

Tokyo 2020: nothing to cheer about an Olympic Games with no fans

Tokyo 2020 organisers have banned foreign fans and will not decide on Japanese fans attending until as late as June

Football and other sports have ploughed on with seasons in empty stadiums but one-off Olympics feels different

Published: 18 May, 2021

Social distancing signs are pictured on grandstand seats during a ceremony on the second day of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games torch relay at Shinobugaoka Stadium in Fukushima on March 26, 2021. Photo: AFP


“Football without the fans is nothing” is the message on the statue of legendary manager Jock Stein at Celtic Park.

It’s a sentiment that football fans have got behind in recent years as consumerism has gripped the game with hand-painted banners bearing the message appearing at Liverpool’s Anfield, Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium and Leicester City’s King Power Stadium among clubs in the English Premier League.

It’s a message that translates internationally, too. “Fussball ohne fans ist nichts!” as the German fans had it in the Bundesliga game between Borussia Monchengladbach and Wolfsburg last June.

That banner was draped over a stand that was filled with cardboard cut-outs of fans at Borussia Park, with the Covid-19 pandemic preventing them from attending.

Aside from becoming the battle cry against consumerism, the pandemic has given Stein’s sentiment a more literal meaning in these months of empty stadiums.

Take Manchester United where an official club banner stating “Football is nothing without fans,” apocryphally attributed to former boss – and Stein’s fellow Scot – Matt Busby, adorns the barren stands at Old Trafford.

Why Tokyo thinks its Olympics show must go on – even as Covid-19 booms
16 May 2021

While it might not be nothing, football is certainly not the same without the fans. Not in the slightest.

It has been bemoaned by fans, media, players and coaches alike – the missing spark in derby matches devoid of atmosphere, the lack of tension as teams chase games with time ticking down, the absence of home advantage.

We might well be getting used to football in empty stadiums but everyone wants fans back in stadiums as soon as is safe to add to the sporting spectacle.


01:25
Anti-Olympics protesters petition to cancel Tokyo games

If fans are important to the world game then we will soon see how they are even more important to the only sporting event that is more global: the Olympics.

We knew in March that there will be no foreign fans in attendance at the delayed
Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games this summer – and they will no doubt be the poorer for it.

It remains to be seen whether even Japanese fans will be permitted.

That was meant to be decided last month but Games organisers have reserved the right to make that decision and on stadium capacity as late as June.

Public opinion wants fans to stay away – with an opinion poll by the Yomiuri daily last weekend saying only 39 per cent of the public want the Games to go ahead at all and 23 per cent want there to be no spectators if they do.

The original playbook already hinted at an unusual Olympics, with fans urged to “support athletes by clapping and not singing or chanting”.

It is sad for the athletes looking forward to the zenith of their sporting careers.

How are they meant to go faster, higher, stronger without the encouragement – or indeed booing as seen at Rio 2016 – of fans in the stadiums?

What is a long jump without the fans clapping in unison ahead of a final attempt? What is the 100m final without tens of thousands of fans’ collective intake of breath? What is any world record attempt without the moment everyone in the crowd realises it is on course and starts willing it to happen with their cheers?

Man United and Liverpool fans overseas can fight back against football’s greedy owners
14 May 2021


It is a key part of the theatre of sport, both for those competing and as much if not more for those watching in the stands and at home.

Some times it doesn’t add to the narrative so much as creates it, with booing more than cheering.

Therein lies the tale of the underdog, such as Rio fans booing Spain and cheering Croatia in the men’s basketball group game or Athens fans booing Paraguay and cheering on Iraq in the men’s football semi-final.

No singing and chanting, Covid-19 rules unveiled for delayed Tokyo Olympics

It is also this narrative building which saw the Russians booed in Rio after state-sanctioned doping, with the fans coming down harder on them than the International Olympic Committee.

Then there’s the booing of judges for not agreeing with the fans.

It’s happened often but never more so than in Athens in 2004 where booing fans held up the men’s horizontal bars final for nearly 10 minutes after 2000 gold medallist Alexei Nemov was scored too low for a daring routine. That he was a Russian shows how these narratives can change between Games.


If there are no fans at all in attendance, as is being mooted, then there will have to be measures to make this Olympics less muted.

Other sports have wrestled with this for both the players and the television audience.

Cardboard cut-outs of fans have been widespread across the sporting world while La Liga’s broadcasts featured a virtual crowd projected on to the empty stands. Japan even had robot fans at the baseball.


There have been plenty of experiments with piping crowd noise into the stadium or on to the audio for television but it is not the same as a live crowd.


Yet another reason why this might be the most lifeless Olympics yet and while the Games might go ahead they will do so without the fun.

#NOTOKYOOLYMPICS

Over 80% in Japan oppose Olympics this year: poll

Demonstrators protest against the Tokyo Olympics on Monday night.

 Photo: AFP Tokyo 2020 Olympics

May 18 

TOKYO

More than 80 percent of Japanese polled oppose hosting the virus-postponed Olympics this year, a new survey showed on Monday, underlining public antipathy less than 10 weeks before the Tokyo Games.

The latest downbeat poll comes after Japan expanded a coronavirus state of emergency Friday as the nation battles a fourth wave of infections.

The surge in cases has put pressure on the country's healthcare system, with medical professionals repeatedly warning about shortages and burnout.

The weekend poll by the Asahi Shimbun daily found 43 percent of respondents want the 2020 Games cancelled, with 40 percent wanting a further postponement.

Those figures are up from the 35 percent who backed cancellation in a survey by the paper a month ago and the 34 percent who wanted a further delay.

"I am one of those in the 80 percent. I think the Olympics should be postponed. Is it that difficult to postpone it?" passer-by Sumiko Usui, 74, told AFP in Tokyo.

Takahiro Yoshida, 53, also expressed doubts over the event.

"In my honest opinion, it will be difficult to hold the Games... Athletes from overseas must be worried as well, because Japan's coronavirus situation is bad," he said.

Only 14 percent support holding the Games this summer as scheduled, down from 28 percent, according to the Asahi poll of 1,527 replies from 3,191 telephone calls.

If the Games go ahead, 59 percent of respondents said they want no spectators, with a third backing lower fan numbers and only three percent a regular-capacity Games.

For months, polling has found a majority in Japan oppose holding the Games this summer.

A separate poll by Kyodo News published Sunday showed 59.7 percent back cancellation, though further postponement was not listed as an option.

Olympic organizers say tough anti-virus measures, including regular testing of athletes and a ban on overseas fans, will keep the Games safe.

But the Kyodo poll found 87.7 percent of respondents worry that an influx of athletes and staff members from abroad may spread the virus.

Amid mounting public opposition to the games, several dozen protesters rallied in central Tokyo against the Olympics.

"It's obvious to everyone that we should cancel the Games, but nobody -- the Tokyo 2020 organizing committee, the Tokyo government nor Prime Minister (Yoshihide) Suga -- none of them are making the decision," Toshio Miyazaki, 60, who organized the demonstration, told AFP. "We cannot afford to host the Olympics when we have to defeat the coronavirus."

Another demonstrator slammed government policy as "contradictory".

"If authorities put priority on the economy, I want them to lift the restrictions on restaurants and bars," Yusuke Kawai, a 40-year-old match-making party organizer, said.

"If they prioritize the anti-virus measures, I want them to cancel the Olympics."

Asked about the state of public opinion Monday, government spokesman Katsunobu Kato said the administration would "make efforts so that the Japanese people understand the Tokyo Games will be held in a safe and secure manner".

"We need to give explanations on details of the concrete (coronavirus) measures," he said, insisting that the Games would not put further pressure on medical services.

Japan has seen a smaller COVID-19 outbreak than many countries, with fewer than 11,500 deaths so far. But the government has come under pressure for its vaccine rollout.

The Kyodo poll found 85 percent of respondents considered the rollout slow, with 71.5 percent unhappy with the government's handling of the pandemic.

Thousands of slots were snapped up on Monday as online bookings opened for two mass vaccination centers which will deliver up to 10,000 shots a day in Tokyo and 5,000 in Osaka, initially to the elderly.

All 25,000 available slots were already booked up in Osaka, the centre said, while around 21,000 reservations were made in Tokyo.© 2021 AFP

#NOTOKYOOLYMPICS

Tokyo doctors association calls for Olympics cancelation

More than 80 percent of people in Japan say they want the Tokyo Games to be canceled or postponed again  Photo: AFP

Tokyo 2020 Olympics

Today  

TOKYO

A Japanese doctors' group has urged the cancelation of the Olympics, even as Games organizers reported a surplus of applications from medics to volunteer at the virus-postponed event.

With less than 10 weeks until the Tokyo Games begin and as Japan battles a surge in infections, public opinion remains strongly opposed to the event going ahead this summer.

But Olympic officials say it can be safely held with COVID-19 countermeasures and point to successful test events, including some featuring overseas athletes.

The Tokyo Medical Practitioners Association, an association of around 6,000 doctors working in Tokyo, said they were "struggling with the fourth wave" of virus cases, calling it the largest so far.

"Canceling an event that has the potential to increase the number of infections and deaths is the right choice," the group said in a statement on Monday.

It urged the government and Games organizers to consult the International Olympic Committee with the aim of canceling the event.

The statement came after a separate union of Japanese hospital doctors warned last week that holding the 2020 Games safely was "impossible".

Japan's virus outbreak has been relatively small, with around 11,500 deaths, but its vaccine rollout is moving slowly and the latest spike in cases has medics warning of shortages and burnout.

The government last Friday expanded a virus state of emergency that will be in force until the end of May, less than two months before the Games open on July 23.

Tokyo 2020 organizers said Tuesday that 395 doctors -- nearly double the required number of 200 certified sports medics -- had applied to volunteer at competition venues and in the athletes' village.

Controversy had previously surrounded the organizers' request for the services of 500 nurses, which sparked accusations of diverting crucial medical resources.

More than 80 percent of people in Japan want the Tokyo Olympics to be canceled or postponed again, according to the latest poll by the Asahi Shimbun daily.

At a shooting test event on Tuesday, top Games official Yasuo Mori said the knowledge gained at such rehearsals would be used to update virus rulebooks for athletes and other participants.

"Throughout the test events, only a few people tested positive for the virus, and we were able to go through procedures at the airport smoothly," he said. "However... there were a relatively smaller number of people than will be at the Olympics, so we will have to discuss how we manage the Olympics in the summer."

© 2021 AFP

Herd immunity appears unlikely for 

COVID-19

By William Petri
CHARLOTTESVILLE, West Virginia

When COVID-19 first began spreading, public health and medical experts began talking about the need for the U.S. to reach herd immunity to stop the coronavirus from spreading. Experts have estimated that between 60% and 90% of people in the U.S. would need to be vaccinated for that to happen. Only about 35% of the population has been fully vaccinated, and yet the CDC said on May 14, 2021 that fully vaccinated people can lose their masks in most indoor and outdoor settings.

An important question now arises: What happens if we don’t reach herd immunity? Dr William Petri is a professor of infectious diseases at the University of Virginia who helps lead the global program to achieve herd immunity for polio as the chair of the World Health Organization’s Polio Research Committee. He answers questions here about herd immunity and COVID-19.

What is herd immunity?

Herd immunity occurs when there are enough immune people in a population that new infections stop. It means that enough people have achieved immunity to disrupt person-to-person transmission in the community, thereby protecting non-immune people.

Immunity can result from either vaccination or prior infection. Herd immunity may exist globally, as it does with smallpox, or in a country or region. For example, the U.S. and many other countries have achieved herd immunity for polio and measles, even though global herd immunity does not yet exist.

Has herd immunity been achieved globally for other infections?

This has happened only once on a global scale, with the eradication of smallpox in 1980. This was after a decade-long worldwide intensive vaccination campaign.

We also are also approaching global herd immunity for polio. When the Global Polio Eradication Initiative was formed in 1988 there were 125 countries with endemic polio and over 300,000 children paralyzed annually. Today, after 33 years of immunization campaigns, Afghanistan and Pakistan are the only countries with wild polio virus, with only two cases of paralysis due to wild poliovirus this year. So herd immunity can be achieved worldwide, but only through extraordinary efforts with global collaboration.

It seems as though the goal posts for herd immunity keep changing. Why?

Experts estimate that between 60% and 90% of the U.S. population would need to be immune for there to be herd immunity. This wide range is because there are many moving parts that determine what is needed to achieve herd immunity.

Factors influencing whether the target is 60% or 90% include how well vaccination and prior infection prevent not only illness due to COVID-19, but also infection and transmission to others. Additional considerations include the heightened transmissibility of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 and the use of measures to interrupt transmission, including face masks and social distancing. Other important factors include the duration of immunity after vaccination or infection, and environmental factors such as seasonality, population sizes and density and heterogeneity within populations in immunity.

What is the biggest barrier to herd immunity in the U.S.?

Two factors could lead to failure to achieve high enough levels of immunity: not every adult receiving the vaccine because of “vaccine hesitancy” and the likely need to vaccinate adolescents and children. The FDA cleared the emergency use of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for adolescents 12 to 15 years of age on May 10, 2021, so that could help. But an added barrier is the constant pressure of reintroduction of infection from other countries where vaccination is not as readily available as in the U.S.

Achieving herd immunity to the extent of totally blocking new infections is therefore, while a laudable goal, not easily achievable. I think that for COVID-19 at this time, it will be possible only with the concerted global effort over years, similar to what led to smallpox eradication.

Why are there ‘vaccine hesitant’ individuals?

People may be vaccine hesitant for several reasons, including lack of confidence in the vaccine, the inconvenience of receiving the vaccine, or complacency – that is, thinking that if they get COVID-19 it will not be severe.

Lack of confidence includes concerns for vaccine safety or skepticism about the health care providers and public health officials administering them. Complacency reflects a personal decision that vaccination is not a priority for that individual because she or he perceives that the infection is not serious or because of competing priorities for time. Convenience issues include the availability and complexity, such as having to get two doses.

Since herd immunity will not be reached, what will our lives look like?

At least into 2022 and likely for much longer, I do not expect there will be herd immunity for COVID-19. What there will be, probably by the end of this summer in the U.S., is a new normalcy. There will be far fewer cases and deaths due to COVID-19, and there will be a removal of social distancing and year-round masking, as evidenced by the CDC’s new guidelines issued May 13, that vaccinated people do not have to wear masks in most places.

But there will be a seasonality to coronavirus infections. That means there will be less in the summer and more in the winter. We’ll also see outbreaks in regions and population subgroups that lack adequate immunity, short-lived lockdowns of cities or regions, new and more transmissible variants and a likely requirement for vaccine booster shots. We cannot let down on the research and development of treatments and new vaccines, as studies show that COVID-19 is here to stay.

Dr William Petri is the chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health at **University of Virginia**, and head of the Infectious Diseases Training Program for graduate students and postdoctoral fellows.

The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts.© The Conversation

COVID-19: Biggest AstraZeneca jab maker unlikely to resume major exports 'for at least three months' as it keeps doses for India surge

The halt in exports is a blow to the Covax vaccination programme, which is heavily reliant on supplies from India.


Tuesday 18 May 2021 

Supplies of the AstraZeneca vaccine are being diverted to India's own COVID crisis

The world's biggest maker of the AstraZeneca vaccine is unlikely to resume major exports until at least October as it prioritises doses for India's coronavirus crisis.

The Serum Institute of India (SII) said it hoped to restart exports to the Covax programme and other countries by the end of the year.
Sponsored link

Doses have been saved for India's devastating COVID surge since exports were stopped a month ago.

Some 66 million doses from India have been sold or donated abroad so far - but the country has only vaccinated a tiny proportion of its huge population.

India's health system has been overwhelmed by its current surge

Indian government sources said sizable exports were now unlikely to restart until at least October - a longer delay than expected.

SII had previously expected shipments to get back on track from June.

"It was internally discussed and some countries were asked not to expect export commitments given the current Indian situation," one anonymous Indian government source told Reuters news agency.

It was not stated which countries could be affected.

India's spike in cases has seen a chronic shortage of beds and oxygen, with many people having to source their own drugs and oxygen for relatives on the black market.

Despite being the world's biggest vaccine producer, it has fully vaccinated only about 2.9% of its 1.35 billion population, according to health ministry data.

The SII said in a statement that it had never exported vaccines at the cost of the Indian people

The halt in exports is a blow to the Covax programme to provide jabs to poorer nations

Other vaccine makers outside the country are being urged by the World Health Organisation to help fill the shortfall.

Its director-general, Tedros Ghebreyesus, has warned of "vaccine apartheid" - with wealthy nations surging ahead and poorer ones left struggling with too few doses.

The WHO's Covax programme aims to provide several billion doses to poorer and less developed countries - with more than a billion of those expected from India.

Gavi, the vaccine alliance, said at least 140 million doses from SII that were lined up for Covax by the end of May would now stay in India.

UNICEF's boss also urged G7 countries this week to increase donations to Covax to make up for the dip in supplies from India.

The organisation estimates a shortfall of some 190 million doses by the end of June.

US President Joe Biden said on Monday he would donate at least 20 million doses of the Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson jabs - on top of 60 million AstraZeneca doses already promised.

Play Video - COVID crisis pushes India's hospitals to the brink

Meanwhile, India's COVID spike is still far from over.

Deaths increased by a record 4,329 to nearly 279,000, according to figures released on Tuesday. And an average of 340,000 cases were confirmed each day last week.

However, there are signs of improvement in some areas - particularly the metropolis of Mumbai, where cases have fallen nearly 70% over the last week.

Greenland Arctic ice sheet nears tipping point and there may be no way back

Scientists detect critical threshold in Greenland after century of global warming

As the surface of the ice is exposed to higher temperatures, it leads to more melting, height reductions and accelerated loss of mass. Reuters

The melting of part of an ice sheet in Greenland is nearing tipping point and further environmental damage could follow, researchers said.

Analysis of the Jakobshavn drainage basin revealed that the central-western Greenland ice sheet is reaching a stage from which it cannot recover.

Data indicated that a critical threshold has been reached after a century of accelerated melting.

“We might be seeing the beginning of a large-scale destabilisation, but at the moment we cannot tell, unfortunately,” said Dr Niklas Boers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, one of the two authors of the research.

“So far, the signals we see are only regional, but that might simply be due to the scarcity of accurate and long-term data for other parts of the ice sheet.”

Dr Boers and Martin Rypdal from the Arctic University of Norway concluded that this part of the Greenland ice sheet is losing stability, and is very close to tipping into a state of accelerated melting, PNAS said on Monday.

Should that scenario play out, it will not be possible to save the sheet even if the Arctic warming trend was halted in the coming decades.

An ice sheet can only maintain its size if the loss of mass from melting is replaced by snow falling on to its surface. The warming of the Arctic disrupts that cycle.

As the surface of the ice is exposed to higher temperatures, it leads to more melting, height reductions and accelerated loss of mass.

After a point, this process cannot be reversed because a much colder climate would be needed for the ice sheet to regain its original size.

"We need to monitor the other parts of the Greenland ice sheet more closely, and we urgently need to better understand how different positive and negative feedback might balance each other, to get a better idea of the future evolution of the ice sheet," Dr Boers said.

The work is part of the Tipes project, co-ordinated and led by the University of Copenhagen in Denmark and the Potsdam institute in Germany.


Updated: May 18, 2021

Greenland ice sheet melting may soon pass point of no return, study warns

‘We might be seeing the beginning of a large-scale destabilisation,’ scientist warns

Samuel Osborne@SamuelOsborne93
THE INDEPENDENT UK

The Greenland ice sheet contains enough water to raise global sea level by seven meters - a change which would displace millions of people
(Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

Part of the Greenland ice sheet could soon cross the point of no-return after which the rate of melting outpaces the rate of snow fall, scientists have warned.

Scientists analysing arctic data said the situation could soon reach a “tipping point” and warned that they “urgently” need to understand how the effects of melting affect each other.

The Greenland ice sheet contains enough water to raise the global sea level by seven metres, a change which would displace millions of people.

Losing it is expected to add to global warming and disrupt major ocean currents, monsoon belts, rainforests, wind systems and rain patterns around the world.

However, the researchers said their data is not as comprehensive as they would like, meaning they cannot make solid conclusion

Dr Niklas Boers, from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said: "We might be seeing the beginning of a large-scale destabilisation but at the moment we cannot tell, unfortunately.

"So far, the signals we see are only regional, but that might simply be due to the scarcity of accurate and long-term data for other parts of the ice sheet."

He explained how an ice sheet can only maintain its size if the loss of mass from melting and calving glaciers is replaced by snow falling onto its surface.

The warming of the Arctic disturbs this mass balance because the snow at the surface often melts away in the warmer summers.

Melting will mostly increase at the lower altitudes, but overall, the ice sheet will shrink from a mass imbalance.

As this happens, a positive feedback mechanism kicks in - meaning as the ice sheet surface lowers, its surface is exposed to higher average temperatures, leading to more melting and the process repeats until the entire ice sheet is gone.

Beyond a critical threshold, researchers say, this process can not be reversed because, with reduced height, a much colder climate would be needed for the ice sheet to regain its original size.

Dr Boers, and his colleague Dr Martin Rypdal from the Arctic University of Norway, have found the data shows that the critical threshold has at least regionally been reached due to the last 100 years of accelerated melting.

They add an increase in melting will possibly be compensated, at least partly, by more snowfall as precipitation patterns over the ice sheet will change due to the changing ice sheet height.

However, if the Greenland ice sheet as a whole moves into accelerated melting there will be severe consequences for the entire planet.

Dr Boers added: "We need to monitor also the other parts of the Greenland ice sheet more closely, and we urgently need to better understand how different positive and negative feedbacks might balance each other, to get a better idea of the future evolution of the ice sheet."

The research has been published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS).

Panic as 300-metre-high skyscraper wobbles in China


SEG Plaza in Shenzhen, one of country’s tallest buildings, evacuated after it inexplicably starts shaking


People flee in panic as 300-metre skyscraper wobbles in China – video

Agence France-Presse
Tue 18 May 2021 

One of China’s tallest skyscrapers was evacuated on Tuesday after it began to shake, sending panicked shoppers scampering to safety.

The near 300 metre (980ft) high SEG Plaza in Shenzhen, southern China, inexplicably began to shake at around 1pm, prompting an evacuation of people inside while pedestrians looked on open-mouthed.

The building was closed by 2.40pm, according to local media reports.

Completed in 2000, the tower is home to a major electronics market as well as various offices in the centre of one of China’s fastest-growing cities.

Officials are investigating what caused the tower in the city’s Futian district to wobble, according to a post on the Twitter-like Weibo platform.

“After checking and analysing the data of various earthquake monitoring stations across the city, there was no earthquake in Shenzhen today,” the statement said.

The district said in another statement later on Tuesday that everyone inside had been safely evacuated and that no further movements of the building had been detected.

Experts “found no safety abnormalities in the main structure and surrounding environment of the building”, and the interior and exterior components of the building appeared undamaged, the district said.

Bystander videos published by local media on Weibo showed the skyscraper shaking as hundreds of terrified pedestrians ran away outside.

“SEG has been completely evacuated,” wrote one Weibo user in a caption to a video of hundreds of people milling about on a wide shopping street near the tower.
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The building is named after the semiconductor and electronics manufacturer Shenzhen Electronics Group, whose offices are based in the complex.

It is the 18th tallest tower in Shenzhen, according to the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat skyscraper database.

Chinese authorities last year banned the construction of skyscrapers taller than 500 metres, adding to height restrictions already enforced in some cities such as Beijing.

The new guidelines for architects, urban planners and developers aimed to “highlight Chinese characteristics” and also banned tacky “copycat” buildings modelled after world landmarks.

Five of the world’s tallest skyscrapers are located in China, including the world’s second-tallest building, the Shanghai Tower, which stands at 632 metres.

Shenzhen is a sprawling metropolis in southern China, close to Hong Kong, which has a booming homegrown tech manufacturing scene.

Many Chinese tech giants, including Tencent and Huawei, have chosen the city to host their headquarters.

It is also home to the world’s fourth-tallest skyscraper, the 599-metre Ping An Finance Centre.

Building collapses are not rare in China, where lax building standards and breakneck urbanisation lead to constructions being thrown up in haste.

Last May, a five-storey quarantine hotel in the south-eastern city of Quanzhou collapsed due to shoddy construction, killing 29.

The devastating 2008 Sichuan earthquake caused more than 69,000 deaths and the disaster ignited a storm of public controversy over poorly constructed school buildings – known as “tofu dregs” – which collapsed killing thousands of students.

Caitlyn Jenner’s bid to be California’s next Governator is falling flat


She hopes to repeat Schwarzenegger’s success as a celebrity running to replace the governor. Polls suggest it’s not working

Caitlyn Jenner in February 2020. Jenner has described herself as a ‘compassionate disrupter’ in California’s recall campaign. Photograph: Gregg DeGuire/Getty Images

Andrew Gumbel in Los Angeles

THE GUARDIAN
Thu 13 May 2021 

Caitlyn Jenner hopes to pull the same trick as Arnold Schwarzenegger: snatching away the governorship of bluer-than-blue California in the chaos of a free-wheeling recall election. So far, though, the voters are not buying it.

The Olympic track star and Kardashian step-parent has not lacked for media coverage since announcing her campaign last month. In the past week alone, she has been interviewed by the Los Angeles Times, CNN, and Fox News. She’s put out an introductory campaign ad positioning herself not as a Trump true believer – as many Republican candidates feel compelled to be these days – but as a “compassionate disrupter” who will shake the political establishment out of its complacency, much as Schwarzenegger promised to do in 2003.

Yet a new poll this week shows Jenner gaining little traction. Just 6% of respondents said they would vote for her, putting her far behind other Republican contenders including Kevin Faulconer, a former San Diego mayor, and John Cox, a businessman and perennial GOP candidate who in 2018 was trounced by the man they all want to unseat, Governor Gavin Newsom.


California’s recall election: how does it work – and will Gavin Newsom survive?

Read more

Schwarzenegger, by contrast, was the clear frontrunner from the moment he stepped into the 2003 recall, using appearances on Jay Leno’s Tonight Show and on Oprah to build tension around the question of whether he would run at all and deploying the considerable communications skills he’d built up over decades of celebrity interviews.

Jenner’s media savvy is not quite so evident. She told Sean Hannity on Fox News that she wanted to “secure” the border wall promoted by Donald Trump. But when asked in a subsequent interview how she would do that when the border was not within the state government’s control, she changed the subject.

In voicing her frustration with California’s large homeless population, she created an unflattering Twitter sensation by talking about a fellow private plane owner who “can’t take it any more”.

She alienated many transgender Californians and their supporters by saying, more than once, that she opposes trans girls competing on school sport teams that match their gender. And, on Tuesday, she told Dana Bash on CNN that she hadn’t found anything to get excited about in the 2020 general election and went golfing instead of going to the polls.
  

Arnold Schwarzenegger talks to reporters as he leaves the Los Angeles county registrar’s office carrying the papers needed to run for governor, in 2003. Photograph: Lee Celano/AP


The statement raised questions about her interest in California policy issues, in a year when high-profile topics such as cash bail, the rights of ride-share drivers, rent control and affirmative action were on the ballot. It also turned out to be untrue, as revealed when Politico dug up documentation showing that she had voted last November after all.

With Jenner apparently unaware that who votes and who does not is a matter of public record in California, a former Republican campaign operative, Jack Pitney, told Politico: “This is not someone who is serious about public life.”

Jenner’s struggles are about the timing of her celebrity candidacy as much as the content. California voters ended up deeply disenchanted with Schwarzenegger’s governorship, even if he remains personally popular, and have demonstrated in every election since 2016 that they found Trump’s own celebrity “disruptor” campaigns little short of abhorrent. (Trump lost California by about 30 points in 2016 and in 2020.)


The recall circus is back: Schwarzenegger’s 2003 win and the fight to oust Gavin Newsom

They are also far from sold on recalling Newsom. The governor has taken his share of bipartisan criticism over his handling of the pandemic, and he provoked widespread outrage when he was caught dining at Napa Valley’s premier restaurant, the French Laundry, in violation of his own lockdown rules last November. But the threat of the recall has spurred him into moving much faster to reopen the economy and the state’s public schools. Now that the pandemic is receding and 36% of Californians are fully vaccinated, his approval ratings are back above 50%. Almost every poll predicts he will survive the recall challenge.

A candidate of Schwarzenegger’s charisma could potentially upend that support between now and election day, expected in October or November. But Jenner appears to have just a small political base . Only 13% of Republicans back her, according to this week’s poll, and she has little crossover appeal to Democrats. Her poor initial showing is likely to lead to problems with fundraising and courting the endorsement of Republican leaders in and out of California.

For now, the “Caitlyn for California” wine glasses are going for $35 a pair. It’s unclear, though, if anyone is buying.

THE WAR ON CHILDREN 

Police shootings of children spark new outcry, calls for training to deal with adolescents in crisis




KIMBERLY KINDY, JULIE TATE, JENNIFER JENKINS AND TED MELLNIK
The Washington Post
MAY 13, 2021

Stavian Rodriguez squeezed his 15-year-old body through the drive-through window of the Okie Gas Express convenience store, poking his hands out first so police could see that they were empty. He jumped to the ground, holding his hands in the air, then lifted his shirt to reveal a gun tucked into his front waistband. Using the tips of his thumb and index finger, Stavian gently pinched the end of the barrel far from the trigger and dropped the weapon to the ground.

As the gun hit the pavement, Stavian reached for his rear pocket; a volley of bullets burst out and the teenager sank to the ground, surveillance and camera footage show. Dozens of Oklahoma City police officers had responded last November to the 911 call at the convenience store, where Stavian was a robbery suspect. Five of them shot 13 bullets into the teen, from his head to his feet.

He is one of 112 children who have been fatally shot and killed by police between Jan. 1, 2015, and Monday, according to a Washington Post database that tracks fatal police shootings. Over the same period of time, 6,168 adults were shot by police.

“They knew he was a child. They were joking about whether he was in there calling his mom,” said Cameo Holland, Stavian’s mother, referring to conversations recorded on officers’ body cameras. “No one was asking, ‘How do we tactically approach this so no one dies today?’ ”

Furor erupts over Columbus police officer's fatal shooting of girl, 16

The five officers who fired shots into Ms. Holland’s child are now facing first-degree manslaughter charges. This is a rare response by prosecutors who tend to side with police investigators who routinely clear officers of wrongdoing. Prosecutors must also consider whether they can persuade jurors, who tend to trust police more than other witnesses. The department said the officers shot because they perceived a threat, and the officers’ attorneys say the shooting was justified.

The long-standing question of how fatal police shootings of children could be avoided and lives spared has engulfed the nation in recent weeks. The debate was renewed by the death of 13-year-old Adam Toledo, who was killed by an officer on March 29 in Chicago and further fueled by another fatal police shooting of a knife-wielding 16-year-old, Ma’Khia Bryant, on April 20 in Columbus, Ohio.

Three other children were shot and killed by police during the three-week span between Adam’s and Ma’Khia’s deaths.

Police leaders have asked the public to withhold judgment in the Adam Toledo and Ma’Khia Bryant cases until the investigations into their shootings are complete. But they acknowledge that communities are less likely to listen as they become increasingly weary and distrustful of police. A Washington Post-ABC News poll in April showed that 55% of Americans said they were not confident that police are adequately trained to avoid excessive use of force — up from 52% in July and 44% in 2014.

Patrick Yoes, national president of the Fraternal Order of Police, said he hopes the public will recognize that officers are faced with instant life-or-death decisions and that even a child can be dangerous, especially if armed.

Of Officer Nicholas Reardon, who shot Ma’Khia, Mr. Yoes said: “I assure you he wasn’t focused on her age. He was focused on the knife. He was looking to save a life. Even children can pose a threat.”

Lawrence Miller — a clinical, forensic and police psychologist based in Palm Beach County, Fla. — said there is no national standard or set of protocols regarding how officers should handle encounters with children.

The Associated Press
Prosecutor on leave over statements about Chicago boy shot by police

He and other police training experts said they know of no academies or programs that offer specialized training to officers in this area as they do for other segments of society, such as the mentally ill.

“They need to talk to them like they are children, not yell a bunch of commands at them,” Mr. Miller said.

Of the 112 people younger than 18 who have been fatally shot by police, according to The Post’s database, five were shot and killed by Columbus Police Department officers, the most of any single agency. Nine other departments had multiple fatal shootings of children. In the other 87 departments with such shootings since 2015, one child’s death was recorded.

The database shows that the circumstances leading to the shootings of children are varied, with about half beginning with a robbery, a traffic stop, a stolen car or a 911 call. Most of the incidents took place during daytime hours; one appears to have involved alcohol use by the child; 19 of the children were experiencing a mental health crisis at the time of the shooting.

The database shows that children are frequently armed with a gun or a knife during these fatal police encounters, but not as often as adults who die by police gunfire — 63% of the time for children vs. 76% for adults.

Sixty-six percent of the children who died in police shootings were Black, Latino, Asian or Native American compared to 44% of adults who were racial minorities.

Children also were more often shot while running from police: 50% compared to 33% of adults.

The youngest of the children who have died were 6-year-olds — Kameron Prescott in Texas and Jeremy Mardis in Louisiana. Both were killed as police fired at but missed the suspects who were their intended targets.

The renewed focus on shootings of children owes much to their visibility: Videos of the Adam Toledo and Ma’Khia Bryant killings went viral, prompting national protests and stinging rebukes of police from high-profile celebrities and politicians.

Public pressure prompted police officials to quickly release body-camera video of the incidents. In one, Ma’Khia, who was Black, appears to be swinging a knife at two girls before she is shot. In another, Adam, who was Latino, is running from police before he stops and turns, tossing an object that police say was a firearm. A split second later, after turning toward the officers with his hands raised, he is shot in the chest.

Among the 112 deaths of children in the database, five incidents have resulted in officers being criminally charged, according to a Post analysis. Four officers in three cases have been found guilty on charges that ranged from murder to aggravated assault. An officer in a fourth case faced a single homicide charge, which allowed jurors to chose between murder or manslaughter, but they ultimately acquitted him.

In the fifth case, the five officers who fired the lethal shots at Stavian last year were charged in March with first-degree manslaughter. They have pleaded not guilty. No trial date has been set.

Prosecutors dispute the police department’s and the union’s characterization of the events that led to Stavian’s death. The department initially said in a news release that the teen was shot because he “did not follow officers’ commands” and had been “holding a pistol” when he climbed through the window.

“Our brave officers leave their families behind and walk into dangerous situations every day to protect and serve this community,” Mark Nelson, Oklahoma City Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 123 vice president, said in a statement several days after the shooting. “Officers often provide commands in tense moments to ensure the safety of all individuals involved. Police training and experience tells us furtive movements and a lack of following commands present a deadly threat.”

Since then, additional videos became public — from police body cameras, news camera crews and surveillance cameras — and a more complex picture of what happened that night in November began to emerge.

Court documents say security footage from inside the store, along with a police interview with the clerk, shows that the robbery began with Stavian pointing a gun at the employee as he demanded money. Another teen, 17-year-old Wyatt Cheatham, loaded packs of cigarettes into a backpack. (Wyatt entered a guilty plea on April 19 on a felony charge of robbery with a firearm.)

Both youths left the store briefly, and after about two minutes, Stavian returned alone and demanded more money, according to court records.

The clerk escaped through a window and used a security system to lock Stavian inside, court records say. He called 911 and officers poured into the parking lot within minutes, several taking cover behind the gas pumps.

For more than 10 minutes, officers yelled conflicting and overlapping commands to Stavian as he hid inside the store, video and court documents show. In charging documents, prosecutors said there appeared to be no commanding officer organizing the response.

Police body-camera videos also captured officers joking about Stavian and the robbery during the standoff. “He’s probably calling his mom,” one says. Another says, “Oops,” and Officer Bethany Sears laughs and adds, “I messed up,” speculating on the teenager’s state of mind as he hides.

Minutes later, Stavian stuck his hands through the window and pulled himself through. On a half-dozen videos, officers can be heard simultaneously yelling different commands at him — “Hands!” “Facedown! On the ground!” “Drop it!”

A strobe light from at least one of the patrol cars — often used to disorient suspects — flashed into Stavian’s face.

As he dropped the gun to the ground, the teen reached for his left rear pocket.

At that moment, Officer Sarah Carli fired a 40 mm foam projectile that struck the teenager, according to prosecutors.

Almost immediately, the other officers fired at him, the video shows. “A cellphone was recovered from the left rear pocket he had his hand in at the time he was shot,” the prosecutors’ affidavit said.

On a body-camera video, Stavian winces in pain as officers yell at the teen to show his hands. Officer John Skuta can be heard repeatedly muttering “Damn it.”

Then officers quickly huddle, video shows, and one of them tells Officer Brad Pemberton to shut off his body-camera video. Police are only required to leave their cameras on when they are interacting with the public, according to department policy.

Officers Pemberton, Sears, Skuta — and also Officers Jared Barton and Corey Adams — were those charged with first-degree manslaughter, which carries a sentence of between four years and life in prison.

Attorneys representing the officers who have been charged say the shooting was legally justified because Stavian reached toward the back of his pants after he dropped the gun. At that moment, they say, officers thought he could have been reaching for a second weapon.

“This case is ultimately about whether each individual officer responded to a perceived threat in a way that was reasonable and in accordance with the law,” the attorneys said in a joint statement. “Five officers, with similar training, came to the same conclusion when the suspect made a sharp movement toward his waistband after being told to show officers his hands and get on the ground. While the results were tragic, the officers’ actions were reasonable and legally justified under the circumstances created by an armed robbery suspect.”

David Thomas, a forensics psychologist and former police officer, said there is a natural assumption that officers know how to respond differently in tense encounters if it becomes clear that they are dealing with a child.

“They think they will put on their father’s hat or mother’s hat and be able to sit down and talk to a child without being a macho cop,” he said. “Or have a big brother or big sister conversation. Training for this — it just doesn’t exist.”

Mr. Miller, the Florida psychologist, said that children’s responses to police commands are often found “at both ends of the spectrum.” They are either quickly compliant or, he said, become confused or defiant and attempt to run away.

“They are egocentric, impulsive, unpredictable,” Mr. Miller said of teens. “They are less likely to show the kind of restraint adults tend to, unless there is a mental illness or drugs involved.”

Mr. Thomas said it would be helpful for officers to learn more about development of the human brain, which is not complete until someone reaches their mid-20s. That can make teens more impulsive.

Mr. Miller said officers often put themselves and children at risk by underestimating them, especially if they are slight in build. He said the Stavian Rodriguez case is an example of this, as police joked about the unfolding scene, and, in some cases, stood out in the open at the window where they knew the teen would have to exit.

“It should never have never gotten to that point. Being a child, in a sense, worked against the decedent. If it was an adult, they would have taken cover,” Mr. Miller said. “They would have probably had him strip down to his skivvies so they wouldn’t have to worry about whether he had a weapon on him.”

Ms. Holland, Stavian’s mother, said without the video that documented how police handled the incident, prosecutors would have been left with the version of events that the police department presented after the shooting.

In 66% of the database incidents involving children, there is no video documentation. Sometimes the only witnesses who support an officers’ contention that a shooting was justified are fellow officers at the scene.

The 2016 fatal shooting of 13-year-old Tyre King falls into this category. Like Ma’Khia, the Black teen was fatally shot by a Columbus officer.

The officer, Bryan Mason, said the teen was reaching into his shorts for a weapon — which turned out to be a BB gun — when Officer Mason shot and killed him. A fellow officer backed up Officer Mason’s description of the incident, court records show. However, three civilian eyewitnesses, including a nun, said they did not see this movement, instead saying the teen appeared to be trying to run away, according to court records.

It was Officer Mason’s fourth shooting — and the first fatal one — in six years, personnel records show. City officials said the shooting was within department policy, as they determined his previous three shootings had been, and a grand jury declined to bring charges. Officer Mason’s attorney did not respond to calls and emails seeking comment. Officer Mason could not be reached for comment.

In all five incidents in which children were shot by police, the Columbus department determined that the shootings were justified.

“This is never an outcome Columbus police want to see. Any loss of life is tragic, even more so when it involves a juvenile,” said Columbus Public Safety Director Ned Pettus. “Each of these incidents is singular and has to be evaluated on its own merits and circumstances. Our priority every day on every call is to protect life and safety.”

Dearrea King, the teen’s grandmother, said police need to understand why children — particularly those who are racial minorities — sometimes do not comply with their commands.

“These kids are running away because they are afraid,” said Ms. King, who has a lawsuit pending against the city. “They are trying to get someplace safe because they do not trust the police.”

Like Officer Mason, three of the Oklahoma City police officers involved in Stavian’s shooting had also been cleared in previous shootings. In each case involving the Oklahoma City officers, the person they shot died.

Ms. Holland said she worries that when departments justify police shootings, future shootings could be fueled.

“They are used to shooting people and they are used to not having a lot of consequences,” she said. “How do you [kill] multiple people and are somehow still fit to carry a gun? Supposedly they are traumatized from these shootings. If they are so traumatized, why don’t they do something different?”

First Published May 13, 2021, 2:45am

Scientists Discover How Hidden Underwater Forces Can Increase Hurricane Intensity

David Nield SCIENCE ALERT 16/5/2021

Previously undiscovered underwater currents can seriously increase the power of hurricanes, a new study shows, research which should make storm system forecasts more accurate in the future.

© NASA

The findings were made through detailed measurements of the 2017 Category 5 storm Hurricane Maria, taken from a suite of subsurface oceanographic instruments. The analysis revealed interactions between ocean islands and the hurricane that fed the storm with more and more energy.

Researchers estimate that Hurricane Maria gained up to 65 percent more potential intensity because of the sloping shelf patterns of the island shorelines, which produced currents that strengthened and stabilized the different bands of temperature in the ocean.

"We were surprised to find that the direction of the approaching hurricane winds relative to the coastline kept the ocean surface layer distinctly warmer compared to the colder waters below," says oceanographer Olivia Cheriton, from the US Geological Survey (USGS).

"This is important because warmer sea surface temperatures provided more energy for the storm."

Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are one of the main factors controlling the energy in a hurricane, and in this case the records showed that waters around the coasts of the battered islands didn't cool down until at least 11 hours after Hurricane Maria had passed.

The stratification or layering of temperatures plays a big part in cooling rates, because it means warmer and cooler waters don't mix. The researchers' data showed how a warm layer of water was kept trapped by rising pressure underneath and strong ocean currents (produced by the hurricane winds) from above.

Underlying ocean temperature changes aren't currently factored into hurricane model simulations, but the researchers show that these shifts can control both the intensity and the direction of a storm system.

There are thousands of islands in tropical oceans that could be hit by similar sorts of hurricane systems, and the new data – which is of a much higher resolution than recordings made by satellites or buoys – should help produce more accurate forecasts.

"While hurricane research along the US Gulf and East Coasts continues to advance, much less is understood about hurricane interactions with small islands, whose communities are especially vulnerable to hurricane impacts," says geologist Curt Storlazzi from USGS.




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hurricane chartOcean currents identified by researchers as the eye of the hurricane passes. (Cheriton et al., Science Advances, 2021)

We're all well aware of the devastating impact of hurricanes, and Maria was responsible for more than 3,000 deaths, more than $90 billion in damage, and the longest blackout the US has ever seen. Improving hurricane forecasting is a crucial part of the work to try and reduce those kinds of impacts.

Human life and critical infrastructure can be better protected if people know what's coming, and as the planet warms up we're seeing more hurricanes of greater intensity – so experts need all the data they can get to better understand them.

Interestingly, the array of high-resolution ocean measurement tools that captured all this valuable full-column water temperature data weren't put in place to measure Hurricane Maria – the instruments were there to study coral reefs around Puerto Rico, until the storm came along.

"We had originally planned to recover the instruments in October 2017, but that all changed after Hurricane Maria," says geological oceanographer Clark Sherman, from the University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez.

"It was not until January 2018 that we were able to get back in the water and we weren't sure what, if anything, would still be there."

The research has been published in Science Advances.

USGS Scientists Add Another Piece to Puzzle of How Hurricanes Can Gain Strength
New Info May Aid Forecasting, Save Lives & Protect Infrastructure

Release Date: MAY 12, 2021

Unique observations collected by U.S. Geological Survey scientists during Hurricane Maria in 2017, revealed previously unknown ocean processes that may aid in more accurate hurricane forecasting and impact predictions.

Such forecasting is critical in preparing communities in the storm's path to help minimize the loss of life and the long-term repercussions of damage to critical infrastructure such as airports, communications networks, roads and power grids.

The research,published in the journal Science Advances, reveals how the interaction between ocean islands and extreme storms can generate underwater currents that make the storms more powerful. The results are applicable to the thousands of islands in the world's tropical oceans subject to these types of weather systems.

"We were surprised to find that the direction of the approaching hurricane winds relative to the coastline kept the ocean surface layer distinctly warmer compared to the colder waters below," said USGS oceanographer Olivia Cheriton, lead author of the paper. "This is important because warmer sea surface temperatures provided more energy for the storm."

The underwater instrument package that collected the high-resolution ocean observations during Hurricane Maria. The package included an acoustic current profiler, an acoustic current velocimeter, and temperature, salinity, and turbidity sensors and was deployed at a depth of 54 meters, 12 kilometers offshore of La Parguera, Puerto Rico. Photo taken July 27, 2017 looking south-southwest.
(Credit: Evan Tuohy, University of Puerto Rico-Mayaguez. Public domain.)

Researchers from the USGS and the University of Puerto Rico-Mayaguez did not set out to make observations during a hurricane. In the summer of 2017, they deployed a large suite of subsurface oceanographic instruments off the southwest coast of Puerto Rico to study the area's coral reefs. Those plans changed when Hurricane Maria, the strongest weather system to hit Puerto Rico since 1928, made landfall on Sept. 20, 2017.

"We had originally planned to recover the instruments in October 2017, but that all changed after Hurricane Maria," said Clark Sherman, UPR-M professor of marine science. "It was not until January 2018 that we were able to get back in the water and we weren't sure what, if anything, would still be there."

The instruments not only survived the passage of Hurricane Maria, they collected a rare, high-resolution set of underwater ocean observations not detectable by more common surface observation platforms, such as buoys or satellites. In addition, this type of subsurface information is not currently incorporated into ocean hurricane model simulations. Doing so may improve forecasts.

Understanding how the underlying ocean temperature changes in response to hurricane forces is critical to accurately forecasting the tracks and intensities of extreme storms. Hurricane Maria caused thousands of deaths, more than $90 billion in damage and the largest electrical blackout in U.S. history.

"While hurricane research along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts continues to advance, much less is understood about hurricane interactions with small islands, whose communities are especially vulnerable to hurricane impacts," said Curt Storlazzi, USGS research geologist and the project's chief scientist.

Information from this study is intended for use by a wide variety of scientists and emergency managers working on hurricane forecasts and impacts to coastal communities.


Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey Add Another Piece to the Hurricanes' Puzzle Can Gain Strength

New Information Could Help Develop Future Forecasts, Save Lives and Protect Essential Infrastructures

Warm waters off the coast of Puerto Rico were able to increase the intensity of Hurricane Maria in September 2017 according to recently published data. Observations show unknown ocean processes so far that could help predict more certainly hurricane forecasts and impacts.

Research published in the scientific journal Science Advances reveals how the combination of strong hurricane-force winds and a steep ocean-platform island can generate underwater currents that keep the ocean surface warm, providing more energy for extreme storms.

Researchers from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez Campus (UPRM) were not planning to comment during a hurricane. In the summer of 2017, they placed a series of oceanographic instruments leaving the southwest coast of Puerto Rico to study coral reefs in that region. These plans changed when Hurricane Maria, the most powerful atmospheric phenomenon that has passed through Puerto Rico since 1928, hit the island on September 20, 2017.

"We planned to extract the instruments in October 2017, but all that changed after Hurricane Maria passed," said Clark Sherman, UPRM's professor of Marine Sciences. "It wasn't until January 2018 that we were able to go to the ocean and we weren't sure if we were going to find some instruments there."

The instruments not only survived the passage of Hurricane Maria, but unusual high-resolution underwater data were obtained.

"We were surprised to discover that the direction in which hurricane winds approached relative to the coastline kept the ocean surface layer warmer compared to the colder waters in the underwater layers," said Olivia Cheriton, USGS oceanographer and lead author of this scientific paper. "This is an important finding, because hotter waters on the surface provide more energy for storms."

Understanding how the underlying temperature of the ocean changes in response to hurricane forces is critical to accurately forecasting the trajectories and intensities of extreme storms. This coastal underwater dynamics could not have been detected by common surface platforms such as buoys or satellites and are not currently implemented in computer models for hurricane simulations.

Hurricane Maria caused thousands of deaths, more than $90 billion in damage, and the largest electric blackout in U.S. history. "As hurricane research across the U.S. continent continues to progress, less is known about the interaction of hurricanes with small islands, whose communities are vulnerable to hurricane impact," said Curt Storlazzi, USGS research geologist and head of this project.

The information in this study applies to the thousands of islands in the world's tropical oceans subjected to extreme storms and is intended for use by a wide variety of scientists and emergency handlers working on hurricane forecasts and impacts in coastal communities.
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