Public awareness of ‘nuclear winter’ too low given current risks, argues expert

Reports and Proceedings

UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE

There is a lack of awareness among UK and US populations of “nuclear winter”, the potential for catastrophic long-term environmental consequences from any exchange of nuclear warheads.

This is according to the researcher behind new polling conducted last month and released today by the University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER)

Paul Ingram, CSER senior research associate, says that – despite risks of a nuclear exchange being at their highest for 40 years due to Russian warmongering – what little awareness there is of nuclear winter among the public is mainly residual from the Cold War era.

The scientific theory of nuclear winter sees detonations from nuclear exchanges throw vast amounts of debris into the stratosphere, which ultimately blocks out much of the sun for up to a decade, causing global drops in temperature, mass crop failure and widespread famine.

Combined with radiation fall-out, these knock-on effects would see millions more perish in the wake of a nuclear war – even if they are far outside of any blast zone. Ideas of nuclear winter permeated UK and US culture during the Cold War through TV shows and films such as Threads and The Day After, as well as in novels such as Z for Zachariah.    

The latest survey, conducted online in January 2023, asked 3,000 participants – half in the UK, half in the US – to self-report on a sliding scale whether they felt they knew a lot about “nuclear winter”, and if they had heard about it from:

• Contemporary media or culture, of which 3.2% in the UK and 7.5% in the US said they had.
• Recent academic studies, of which 1.6% in the UK and 5.2% in the US claimed they had.
• Beliefs held during the 1980s, of which 5.4% in the UK and 9% in the US said they had heard of or still recalled.*

“In 2023 we find ourselves facing a risk of nuclear conflict greater than we’ve seen since the early eighties. Yet there is little in the way of public knowledge or debate of the unimaginably dire long-term consequences of nuclear war for the planet and global populations,” said Ingram.

“Ideas of nuclear winter are predominantly a lingering cultural memory, as if it is the stuff of history, rather than a horribly contemporary risk.”   

“Of course it is distressing to consider large-scale catastrophes, but decisions need to account for all potential consequences, to minimise the risk,” said Ingram.  

“Any stability within nuclear deterrence is undermined if it is based on decisions that are ignorant of the worst consequences of using nuclear weapons.”

The survey also presented all participants with fictional media reports from the near future (dated July 2023) relaying news of nuclear attacks by Russia on Ukraine, and vice versa, to gauge support in the UK and US for western retaliation.

In the event of a Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine, fewer than one in five people surveyed in both countries supported in-kind retaliation, with men more likely than women to back nuclear reprisal: 20.7% (US) and 24.4% (UK) of men compared to 14.1% (US) and 16.1% (UK) of women.

The survey used infographics summarising nuclear winter effects laid out in a recent study led by Rutgers University (published in Nature Food in August 2022).The Rutgers research used climate modelling and observations from forest fires and volcanoes, and found that even a limited nuclear war could see mass starvation of hundreds of millions in countries uninvolved in any conflict.

Half the survey sample in each country (750 in the UK and US) were shown the infographics before they read the fictional news of nuclear strikes, while the other half – a control group – were not.

Support for nuclear retaliation was lower by 16% in the US and 13% in the UK among participants shown the “nuclear winter” infographics than among the control group.**

This effect was more significant for those supporting the parties of the US President and UK Government. Support for nuclear retaliation was lower by 33% among UK Conservative Party voters and 36% among US Democrat voters when participants were briefly exposed to recent nuclear winter research.***  

Added Ingram: “There is an urgent need for public education within all nuclear-armed states that is informed by the latest research. We need to collectively reduce the temptation that leaders of nuclear-armed states might have to threaten or even use such weapons in support of military operations.”

Ingram points out that if we assume Russia’s nuclear arsenal has a comparable destructive force to that of the US – just under 780 megatons – then the least devastating scenario from the survey, in which nuclear winter claims 225 million lives, could involve just 0.1% of this joint arsenal.

The findings are published in a report on the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk website.

NOTES:

*The responses to each of these three questions were not mutually exclusive, with some participants claiming to know about nuclear winter from two or three different sources.

** Support for nuclear retaliation in the UK was 18.1% in the group that were presented with the infographic, against 20.8% in the control group. 
Support for nuclear retaliation in the US was 17.6% in the group that were presented with the infographic, against 21% in the control group. 

***22.3% of informed UK Conservative Party voters supported nuclear retaliation, against 33.3% of those uninformed. Among US Democrats these figures were 15.8% and 24.6% respectively.

The fieldwork was conducted online by polling company Prolific on the 25 January 2023, with a total of 3000 participants (1500 in the UK and US respectively).

---

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Survey

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Public awareness of nuclear winter and implications for escalation control

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

14-Feb-2023

Disclaimer: AAA

UK ANTI MIGRANT TORIES 
Calls for the Government to take a stand against violence towards asylum seekers


Monday 13 February 2023

Police were called to an anti-refugee protest outside a Knowsley hotel on Friday 10 February.

Credit: Liverpool Echo

Political leaders must "take a clear stand" and condemn violence against asylum seekers, charities have said in an open letter to the government.

They warn the "horrifying scenes" seen in Merseyside could be repeated across the country if nothing is done.

The charities criticised the "inflammatory language" and policies that "demonise" people seeking refuge, and warned of a "high risk of more premeditated extremist attacks around the country" following the violence outside the Suites Hotel in Knowsley where Asylum seekers were being housed.

Fireworks were thrown at police, while a police van was attacked with hammers and set alight, during the disturbance on Friday 10 February.

Since then 15 people between the ages of 13 and 54 have been arrested, with one teenager charged with violent disorder and assault by beating of an emergency services worker.

The other 14 have been bailed pending further investigation.

The demonstration was said to be prompted by a viral video that was recorded and put on social media

.

A burnt out police van after a demonstration outside the Suites Hotel in Knowsley, Merseyside, on Friday night

Credit: Peter Powell/PA

The letter, co-ordinated by the coalition campaign Together With Refugees, was signed by more than 100 organisations and charities from across the country, including Liverpool City of Sanctuary, Care4Calais, Share Knowsley and the Refugee Council.

Home Secretary Suella Braverman has faced repeated criticism for her rhetoric describing migrants crossing the English Channel.

She prompted an outcry in November when she told MPs that the south coast was facing an "invasion" of illegal migrants.

The charities said people in the asylum system "have already suffered terribly", fleeing war and persecution in places like Afghanistan, Sudan, Syria and Iran.

Describing Britain's asylum system as "broken", the organisations said people are forced into a period of "limbo" as they wait for a decision on their claim to stay in the UK, and end up in hotels which they called "a completely inappropriate form of accommodation".

"This is not the Liverpool that I know" - Care4Calais charity founder Clare Mosely 


The charities called on those in charge to "create a system that is fair and compassionate, and brings cohesion instead of division".

They said: "Having already experienced great hardship, these men, women and children who come here for protection are now faced with violence, fuelled by inflammatory language of 'invasion' and policies that demonise them.

"The responsibility to create a system that is fair and compassionate, and brings cohesion instead of division, lies with our decision makers.

"With the high risk of more premeditated extremist attacks around the country, leaders of all parties must now take a clear stand and condemn any further violence against those who come here to find safety, and set out the action they will take to prevent it."

The charities said those responsible for inciting anger and violence "bring shame on this country" and are in the minority.

They added: "This does not reflect the people of Britain. This is not who we are."

A police van was set alight during the protest.

Credit: PA Images

A Home Office spokesperson said: “The Home Secretary has publicly condemned the appalling scenes outside the hotel and violence toward police officers on Friday night in Merseyside.

“The welfare of asylum seekers in our care is of the utmost importance and we will work with the police to ensure their safety.”

Ewan Roberts, centre manager of Asylum Link Merseyside, said his area has a "proud history of welcoming refugees and the horrifying incident on Friday night does not represent the people of Knowsley".

He said: "The people staying in temporary accommodation came to us seeking our help, and instead had the experience of being under siege by a violent mob.

"We urge politicians to stop using rhetoric that fuels such hatred, condemn this violence and start doing the real work of clearing the backlog instead."

Former refugee Sabir Zazai, who is now chairman of Together With Refugees - a coalition of more than 500 national and local organisations - said the issue is not about party politics but rather "basic human decency".

He said: "The very least all political leaders could do is to condemn the attack on people seeking sanctuary in our communities.

"Leaders of all political parties must call for the ending of these hostile policies and hateful language that only fuels division and anger."

Jared Skeete, 19, of Irwell Close, Aigburth, Liverpool, was remanded in custody to appear before Liverpool Crown Court on 13 March.

The remaining 14 people who were arrested, 12 men and two women who are mainly from the Knowsley area, were conditionally bailed pending the outcome of police inquiries.

Charities urge UK politicians to oppose attacks on migrants

The open letter, co-ordinated by coalition campaign Together With Refugees and signed by 180 charities, condemned the “horrifying” scenes on Friday outside the hotel near Liverpool. 

14 February, 2023

(Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)

By: Mohnish Singh

Nearly 200 charities on Tuesday urged the UK’s political leaders to “take a clear stand” against attacks on asylum seekers, days after an anti-immigrant protest descended into violent disorder.

Clashes broke out when troublemakers disrupted a pro-refugee gathering outside a hotel housing asylum seekers near Liverpool, police said.

A far-right, anti-immigrant group had protested outside the same hotel earlier this month.

The open letter, co-ordinated by coalition campaign Together With Refugees and signed by 180 charities, condemned the “horrifying” scenes on Friday outside the hotel near Liverpool.

Merseyside Police arrested 15 people after fireworks were thrown at officers and a police van was attacked with hammers and set alight during several hours of mayhem.

One of those arrested, a 19-year-old man, appeared in court on Monday charged with violent disorder and assault for beating an emergency services worker.

“With the high risk of more premeditated extremist attacks around the country, leaders of all parties must now take a clear stand and condemn any further violence against those who come here to find safety,” the charities’ letter stated.

It also urged political leaders to “set out the action they will take to prevent it”.

Hardline interior minister Suella Braverman has faced sustained criticism for her inflammatory rhetoric over immigration, in particular her description of the growing number of migrants crossing the Channel.

Opponents accuse her of demonising asylum seekers and fuelling hostility towards people seeking sanctuary.

In November, she sparked an outcry by saying in parliament that England’s south coast was facing an “invasion” of illegal migration.

Tens of thousands of people arrived in southeast England on small boats from the European mainland last year, dramatically increasing a trend that began on a large scale in 2018.

A spokesperson for the interior ministry noted that Braverman had condemned the “appalling scenes outside the hotel and violence toward police officers” seen on Friday.

“The welfare of asylum seekers in our care is of the utmost importance and we will work with the police to ensure their safety,” the spokesperson added.

Friday’s violence in Merseyside erupted when troublemakers came to a planned demonstration by refugee advocacy groups outside the hotel, police said.

The far-right group Patriotic Alternative had protested outside the hotel earlier this month, although the group denied it was the organiser of the latest rally.

Police linked the protest to social media and rumours that a man had made “inappropriate advances” to a 15-year-old girl in the area, saying this was used as “an excuse to commit violence”.

Modern slavery victims 'at risk of being re-trafficked' in UK due to lack of services

Charities say they simply do not have enough resources to deal with all referrals

British charities say victims of modern slavery are at risk of being re-trafficked

 after their case has been raised due to a chronic lack of services. Getty

Laura O'Callaghan

Feb 14, 2023

Beta V.1.0 - Powered by automated translation

Victims of modern day slavery who have escaped the clutches of abusers are at serious risk of falling back into networks of exploitation due to a lack of resources to support them, charities say.

While the UK government has said the country’s modern slavery laws are being misused by some migrants lodging bogus claims, campaigners have warned that genuine victims are not being given adequate help.

About 10,000 people are trapped in slavery across Britain, according to government statistics. But the actual number is estimated to be in excess of 100,000, according to Unseen, a UK-based anti-slavery charity.

READ MORE

UK politicians seek change to modern slavery laws to ease migrant crisis

Almost half of referrals made to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM), the government’s system for supporting slavery victims, relate to child victims.

The Salvation Army has a contract with the government to support victims of slavery who have been accepted in to the NRM, which allows cases to be considered by the Home Office.

A recent influx of cases has forced the charity to implement an “unprecedented emergency measure” to suspend accepting new referrals of potential victims.

Kathy Betteridge, the charity’s director of anti-trafficking and modern slavery, told The Guardian the first responder service “has not closed, but we took the decision to temporarily suspend accepting new referrals for a short period so we could give proper attention to the large number of new cases recently referred to us.”

She said the decision highlighted “how much strain” the system is under.

Kalayaan, a West London charity supporting migrant domestic workers, suggested its services were also struggling to cope. It said the situation has led to victims becoming "at real risk of further harm and abuse".

The group, based in Holland Park, issued a public announcement, saying that a recent sharp rise in the number of referrals, particularly since mid-December, has swamped the system. It said for several years "there has been a lack of acknowledgment by the UK government of the need to recruit and train more, as well as existing, First Responder Organisations."

"The system has become overwhelmed and appears to be at breaking point," the warning continued. "Some statutory First Responder Organisations remain unaware of their legal responsibilities, and non-statutory First Responders do not have the capacity to cope. This has the very real result that survivors, already victims of severe human rights violations, are unable to be referred to the NRM and access support.

"Without being identified and provided support, survivors are at real risk of further harm and abuse, including treatment that amounts to slavery."

The Home Office’s definition of modern day slavery relates to human trafficking, slavery, forced or compulsory labour and servitude.

Kalayaan, which also has a contract with the government, suggested servitude is among the less-well known forms of modern day slavery. On its website, it says this category encompasses people who are “strictly controlled by their employer, have no freedom to leave the house, ill-treated, humiliated, subjected to exhausting working hours”. Employees who are forced to live and work in unbearable conditions or denied pay or given meagre salaries also fall into this classification.

In a statement, a Home Office representative said the department is “committed to do everything we can in supporting modern slavery victims as they rebuild their lives and it is crucial that first responders — such as charities and the police — who refer them to our system are robustly trained.”

It continued: “We have a range of materials available to support this work and are developing a hub where organisations which aren’t responders can learn about modern slavery indicators, leading to better identification of victims.”

Home Secretary Suella Braverman has accused Albanian migrants of “gaming” Britain’s anti-slavery legislation by filing false claims after illegally crossing the Channel in small boats.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in December struck a deal with the East European nation to deport citizens who had entered Britain without permission. Amid growing pressure from Conservative MPs to get on top of the crisis, Mr Sunak earlier this month claimed regular flights were taking Albanian migrants back to their homeland, a key step to break a “ridiculous” cycle. Robert Jenrick, an immigration minister at the Home Office, later said the flights were taking place on a weekly basis.

Last year, Albanians accounted for about a third of the 45,755 men, women and children who entered the UK illegally via the Channel.

Updated: February 14, 2023, 4:15 a.m.

Knowsley riots: Braverman is the 'respectable' face of anti-migrant hate

Ella Cockbain, Peter Oborne
14 February 2023 

The British home secretary's talk of 'invasions' and 'grooming gangs' bears a heavy share of responsibility for rising attacks on migrants

Government lawyers have previously warned Britain's Home Secretary Suella Braverman that her 'inflammatory immigration rhetoric risked inspiring a far-right terror attack' (AFP)

Last Wednesday, in the House of Commons, Home Secretary Suella Braverman welcomed the Shawcross review of Prevent, including its judgement that the programme had laid too much emphasis on the danger presented by extreme right ideology.

“While obscuring the Islamist threat,” the home secretary told MPs, “Prevent has defined the extreme right-wing too broadly, encompassing the respectable right and centre-right.”

UK and Islam: Prevent review is a dangerous whitewash

Read More »

Uncomfortably for Braverman, two days later an eruption of right-wing violent extremism broke out in an attack on a hotel housing asylum-seekers in Knowsley, Merseyside.

A police van was set ablaze, fireworks were launched at officers and vile accusations were chanted about the hotel’s residents as lawful protest descended into mob violence.

There’s no question that the far right played a major role in stirring up the terrible events in Knowsley. Big Tech must also answer for its culpability in enabling fascism: calls to action circulated on social media, including a YouTube video from the neo-Nazi group Patriotic Alternative.

But - and this should trouble the home secretary - there is plenty of evidence that the “respectable right and centre-right” bears a heavy share of responsibility.

To understand why, let’s examine the claims underpinning the mob attacks.
Two moral panics

Knowsley saw the convergence of two moral panics: "Muslim grooming gangs" and an "invasion" of asylum seekers.

Both narratives have been heavily promoted in the mainstream press - fuelled by the Conservative government, including Braverman.

Just a day after a far-right terrorist attack on a migrant centre in Dover, Braverman called for an end to the "invasion of our southern coast". This language echoed both Nazi-era rhetoric and current white supremacist propaganda.

Braverman called for an end to the 'invasion of our southern coast'. This language echoed current white supremacist propaganda

Indeed the Guardian reported that government lawyers had previously warned Braverman that her "inflammatory immigration rhetoric risked inspiring a far-right terror attack".

Just as important was the second moral panic, virtually ignored in media reports, namely the baying chants of "nonces" (British slang for paedophile), graffiti with the same slur, and how various far-right actors explicitly linked the riot to "grooming gangs".

There’s no question that the far right has exploited this narrative.

The far-right has form both in courting genuine victims of child sexual abuse and exploiting false allegations. The official Telegram channel of far-right propagandist Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, who usually goes by the pseudonym of Tommy Robinson, posted footage of the Knowsley riot with the caption: "A clear message sent to the police, to the UK government and to the hotels who house illegal economic migrants accused or suspected of grooming school children."

But as with the “invasion” narrative, this propaganda has been enabled by Conservative politicians.
Widespread systemic failings

The trope is politically convenient, propping up a hardline anti-immigration agenda and detracting from the devastating impacts of austerity and widespread systemic failings.

When Braverman belatedly issued her statement about Knowsley, it was criticised for victim-blaming and implying that far-right rioters were responding, albeit excessively, to legitimate concerns about asylum seekers.

The Suites Hotel in Knowsley, north-west England, the morning after violent right-wing, anti-migrant protests, 11 February 2023 (AFP)

It must be stressed that the roots of the "grooming gangs" discourse lie in a core of truly terrible cases involving men of Pakistani heritage. Over the past decade, however, a moral panic has been constructed on selective outrage, misinformation and outright disinformation.

Sight has repeatedly been lost of just how horrendously common child sexual abuse is - in general, not just the cases singled out by journalists, think tanks and politicians. The "grooming gangs" narrative harms both abuse victims/survivors and whole communities stigmatised as deviant.

Muslim boys and men in the UK have been mass-stereotyped as suspected 'groomers', or 'groomers' in waiting

The narrative has been inflamed by reporting in virtually every British mainstream newspaper, broadsheet as well as tabloid.

Successive Conservative home secretaries - Sajid Javid, Priti Patel and Braverman - have actively fuelled racial stereotyping around "grooming gangs" - the latter two even when faced with their own civil servants’ evidence to the contrary.

As a result, Muslim boys and men in the UK have been mass-stereotyped as suspected "groomers", or "groomers" in waiting. Such scapegoating and demands for collective responsibility sideline questions of individual culpability, which are fundamental to justice.

That is painfully evident in accounts of Muslim children being bullied as "groomers" and the racially aggravated murder of an innocent 81-year-old man in Rotherham.
Wake-up call

The convergence with the "grooming gangs" panic only adds to the dangerous imagery of asylum seekers as marauders set to exploit not just the British state, but (white) British girls themselves. In doing so, it echoes the international far-right trope of immigrants as a threat to white nationhood, whereby women and girls are framed not as people but as property to be defended.

The riot at Knowsley is the latest in extensive far-right actions targeting accommodation for asylum seekers, including hotels where unaccompanied children are housed.

Demonising Islam: Prevent review fulfils dreams of UK's right-wing media

Read More »

It also follows several acts of outright terrorism with explicit links to far-right ideologies around "grooming gangs": last year’s firebombing in Dover, the Finsbury Park attacks and the massacre in Christchurch, New Zealand - where the attacker’s ammunition was inscribed "for Rotherham".

Knowsley ought to be a long-overdue wake-up call about the dangers of toxic narratives around migrants, minorities and "grooming gangs".

Remember: another demonstration at a hotel housing asylum-seekers is already scheduled for a few days’ time. It will be in Rotherham - the town most synonymous with "grooming gangs".

Last week, Shawcross implicitly acquitted the “respectable right” - a category which presumably includes the Tory government and its supporters in the mainstream press - of any role in inflaming political violence against vulnerable minorities.

It’s no wonder that Suella Braverman embraced the report with such enthusiasm.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.

Ella Cockbain is an Associate Professor in Security and Crime Science at UCL, where she leads the research group on human trafficking, smuggling and exploitation. She is also a visiting research fellow at Leiden University. Her research focuses primarily on human trafficking, labour exploitation, and child sexual exploitation and abuse. She is the former co-chair and current member of the UK’s national Modern Slavery Strategy and Implementation Group on prevention. Her publications include numerous peer-reviewed journal articles and book chapters, the book Offender and Victim Networks in Human Trafficking, several edited collections, and media commentaries. A previous Future Research Leaders fellow of the Economic and Social Research Council, she currently leads two major research programmes.

Peter Oborne won best commentary/blogging in both 2022 and 2017, and was also named freelancer of the year in 2016 at the Drum Online Media Awards for articles he wrote for Middle East Eye. He was also named as British Press Awards Columnist of the Year in 2013. He resigned as chief political columnist of the Daily Telegraph in 2015. His latest book is The Fate of Abraham: Why the West is Wrong about Islam, published in May by Simon & Schuster. His previous books include The Triumph of the Political Class, The Rise of Political Lying, Why the West is Wrong about Nuclear Iran and The Assault on Truth: Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and the Emergence of a New Moral Barbarism.

EU PARLIAMENT VOTES FOR ALL NEW CARS TO BE ELECTRIC BY 2035

CO2 EMISSIONS FROM CARS & VANS

Today, Members of the European Parliament have just adopted the compromise reached with EU Member States and the European Commission on CO2 emissions for cars and vans. From 2035, no more new cars and vans with combustion engines will be registered in the EU. The Greens/EFA Group voted in favour of the outcome of the negotiations, on the first file of the Fit For 55 package to have completed the legislative stage.

The Commission's proposal for new CO2 standards for trucks is also expected today. Greens/EFA call for the end of combustion engines for new trucks between 2035 and 2040 depending on the truck segment, and by 2030 for the sale of new urban buses. Failing to put an end date for the sale of combustion engines in trucks would seriously undermine the objective of reaching climate neutrality by 2050 at the latest.

Bas Eickhout MEP, Greens/EFA Group negotiator in the European Parliament's lead Environment Committee, comments:

"The EU is leading the way on electromobility. The end of the internal combustion engine is a clear message from the EU for cleaner transport, climate neutrality and greater competitiveness. The Green Deal ensures cleaner air in road traffic and boosts the production of long range batteries and modern cars. The green transformation creates investment and sustainable jobs and protects the climate. 

“Today's decision provides planning certainty for the shift to e-mobility, strengthens the EU as an automotive location and protects the health of citizens. The next step must be the expansion of battery production and charging infrastructure. 

“The Commission must be as bold in its approach to emissions reductions for trucks. Only clear and strong targets will help the industry electrify and clear the road for a greener transport sector.”

More:

The Commission must aim for a 100% reduction in CO2 emissions from trucks by 2040 at the latest in its proposal this afternoon. The Commission's own impact assessment shows that 100% by 2040 is not only feasible but economically beneficial.

Fit for 55: zero CO2 emissions for new cars and vans in 2035

Press Releases
EU PLENARY SESSION

Road transport to contribute more to the EU’s climate neutrality target
New methodology for assessing CO2 emissions throughout the full life-cycle of a vehicle
Aligning emission limit values with real-world emissions


MEPs adopt ambitious CO2 emissions standards for new cars and vans @Michael Flippo / Adobe Stock

Parliament approved the new CO2 emissions reduction targets for new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, part of the “Fit for 55” package.

With 340 votes in favour, 279 against and 21 abstentions, MEPs endorsed the deal reached with the Council on revised CO2 emission performance standards for new cars and vans in line with the EU’s increased climate ambition.

The new legislation sets the path towards zero CO2 emissions for new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in 2035 (an EU fleet-wide target to reduce CO2 emissions produced by new cars and vans by 100% compared to 2021). Intermediate emissions reduction targets for 2030 are set at 55% for cars and 50% for vans.

Other key measures foreseen by the regulation:

The Commission will present by 2025 a methodology to assess and report data on CO2 emissions throughout the full life-cycle of cars and vans sold on the EU market, accompanied by legislative proposals where appropriate;
By December 2026, the Commission will monitor the gap between the emission limit values and the real-world fuel and energy consumption data, report on a methodology for adjusting the manufacturers' specific CO2 emissions, and propose appropriate follow-up measures;
Manufacturers responsible for small production volumes in a calendar year (1 000 to 10 000 new cars or 1 000 to 22 000 new vans) may be granted a derogation until the end of 2035 (those registering fewer than 1 000 new vehicles per year continue to be exempt);
The current zero- and low- emission vehicles (ZLEV) incentive mechanism, which rewards manufacturers that sell more such vehicles (with emissions from zero to 50g CO2/km, such as electric vehicles and well-performing plug-in hybrids) with lower CO2 emission reduction targets, will be adapted to meet expected sales trends. From 2025 to 2029, the ZLEV benchmark is set at 25% for the sales of new cars, and 17% for new vans, and as of 2030 the incentive will be removed;
Every two years, starting from the end of 2025, the Commission will publish a report to evaluate the progress towards zero-emission road mobility.

Quote
Rapporteur Jan Huitema (Renew, NL) said: “This regulation encourages the production of zero- and low-emission vehicles. It contains an ambitious revision of the targets for 2030 and a zero-emission target for 2035, which is crucial to reach climate neutrality by 2050. These targets create clarity for the car industry and stimulate innovation and investments for car manufacturers. Purchasing and driving zero-emission cars will become cheaper for consumers and a second-hand market will emerge more quickly. It makes sustainable driving accessible to everyone.”


Next steps

Following the final vote in plenary, the text will now have to be formally endorsed by Council, too, before being published in the EU Official Journal shortly after.



Background

On 14 July 2021, as part of the 'Fit for 55' package, the Commission presented a legislative proposal for a revision of the CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles. The proposal aims to contribute to the EU 2030 and 2050 climate objectives, deliver benefits to citizens and stimulate innovation in zero-emission technologies.

 

EBRD lends US$ 90 million to support Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports

By Vanora Bennett

14 Feb 2023

• EBRD finances seasonal working capital needs of MHP’s Ukraine edible oil production segment
• Supporting Ukraine’s food security is strategic imperative for EBRD
• EBRD will commit up to €3 billion for Ukraine in 2022-23  

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will lend US$ 90 million to MHP Group, one of the leading grain, poultry and edible oils producers in Ukraine and southeastern Europe, to support the production of sunflower oil for export from Ukraine and maintain the livelihoods of employees and oilseeds suppliers in Ukraine.

In recent years, Ukraine has produced one third of the world's sunflower oil and accounted for nearly half of sunflower oil global exports, playing a crucial role in the global food security and edible oils supply.

Russia’s war on Ukraine has disrupted operations across the economy and existing supply chains, negatively impacting Ukraine’s sunflower seed harvest and sunflower oil production and putting further pressure on agriculture produce availability and prices, increasing the need to support the sector. MHP Group operates three sunflower crushing plants in Ukraine and is among the biggest sunflower oil producers in the country.

The loan will finance MHP’s seasonal working capital needs for its edible oil crushing segment in Ukraine, allowing the company to procure the sunflower seeds to crush into edible oil for export.

First loss risk cover is provided by the United States of America through its contribution to the EBRD Crisis Response Special Fund. The finance comes with a technical cooperation grant of €75,000 to enhance the group’s capacity for economic inclusion of people with disabilities and war veterans.

The project is approved under the Resilience and Livelihoods Framework, adopted by the Bank to support the country’s economy after Russia invaded on 24 February last year. The Framework’s objective is to help sustain the provision of services and safeguard business activities in Ukraine, with the ultimate goal of preserving livelihoods.

MHP is listed on the London Stock Exchange. In Ukraine, MHP is engaged in all stages of poultry production as well as being a major producer of grain and edible oils. The company employs around 29,000 people in Ukraine.

As Ukraine’s biggest institutional investor, the EBRD has pledged to invest €3 billion in the country in 2022-23. In 2022, it deployed €1.7 billion, mobilising €200 million more through partner banks and €1.4 billion through donors.

To address the economy’s current needs, the EBRD is prioritising five areas: trade finance, energy security, vital infrastructure, food security (covering the provision of liquidity to farmers via banks for the spring sowing campaign as well as to agribusiness companies and food retailers) and support for the private sector.

Progressives demand Buttigieg act on rail safety amid toxic Ohio disaster

Kenny Stancil, Common Dreams
February 14, 2023

Pete Buttigieg -- screenshot

Progressives are demanding that U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg improve rail safety regulations in response to the unfolding public health disaster in East Palestine, Ohio—the site of a recent fiery train crash and subsequent "controlled release" of toxic fumes that critics say was entirely avoidable.

"The Obama administration attempted to prevent dangerous derailments like the one in East Palestine by mandating better brake systems on freight trains," Jeff Hauser, executive director of the Revolving Door Project, said Tuesday in a statement. "But this effort was watered down thanks to corporate pressure, first by writing in many exemptions to the proposed rules and then, under [former President Donald] Trump, by repealing the requirement altogether."

Recent reporting from The Lever revealed that Buttigieg's Department of Transportation (DOT) "has no intention of reinstating or strengthening the brake rule rescinded under Trump," said Hauser. "Additionally, The Lever reports that the train was not being regulated as a high-hazard flammable train, despite it clearly being both high-hazard and flammable. These types of failures to protect the public are invited by perpetual lax enforcement and laziness toward even getting back to the too-low regulatory standards under Obama."

"Now, all eyes are on Secretary Buttigieg," he continued. "For too long he has been content to continue the legacy of his deregulatory predecessor, Elaine Chao, rather than immediately moving to reverse her legacy upon becoming secretary."

"Norfolk Southern's environmental disaster is the latest in a long string of corporate malfeasance committed right under the secretary's nose," Hauser observed, referring to the company that owns the derailed train. "As I've warned before, corporations do not respect Buttigieg as a regulator."

"Norfolk Southern's environmental disaster is the latest in a long string of corporate malfeasance committed right under the secretary's nose... Corporations do not respect Buttigieg as a regulator."

Noting that "Chao justified letting trains run without proper brakes because the safety requirement failed a so-called cost-benefit analysis," Hauser cautioned that "this type of analysis is invariably weighted against fully accounting for the health and environmental benefits a regulation provides."

"Buttigieg should call out the brake rule repeal for the horrendous decision it was, start working to implement a new rule, take Norfolk Southern to task, and push back on corporations deciding how the DOT regulates them," he added. "Anything short of that only signals to the railroads that this type of incident will be tolerated."

Hauser was joined Tuesday by environmental activist Erin Brockovich, who tweeted, "The Biden administration needs to get more involved in this... train derailment now."

"We are counting on you to break the chain of administration after administration to turn a blind eye," she added. "STEP UP NOW."

After Buttigieg made his first public statement on the East Palestine disaster on Monday night—10 days after dozens of train cars careened off the tracks and burst into flames—The Lever's David Sirota issued a reminder that the transportation secretary is actively considering an industry-backed proposal to further weaken the regulation of train braking systems.

Sirota also urged people to sign his outlet's open letter imploring Buttigieg "to rectify the multiple regulatory failures that preceded this horrific situation," including by exercising his authority to restore the rail safety rules gutted by Trump at the behest of industry lobbyists.

Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar (Minn.) wrote Monday night on social media that the freight train crash and ensuing chemical release "will have a significant negative impact on the health and well-being of the residents for decades."



"We need [a] congressional inquiry and direct action from Pete Buttigieg to address this tragedy," added the progressive lawmaker.

Following the February 3 derailment of a 150-car train carrying hazardous materials—described by an inter-union alliance of rail workers as the predictable result of Wall Street-backed policies that prioritize profits over safety—officials ordered emergency evacuations before releasing chemicals into a trench and burning them off to prevent a catastrophic explosion.

It was already known that vinyl chloride, of particular concern to state health officials because exposure to the volatile gas is associated with higher cancer risks, had been released from several cars, and that other dangerous toxins such as phosgene and hydrogen chloride were emitted in large plumes of smoke.

However, citing a list of the derailed car contents that Norfolk Southern provided to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), ABC Newsreported Monday night that several more toxic substances were released into the air and soil following the crash than originally thought, including ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, ethylhexyl acrylate, and isobutylene.

As the outlet noted:
Contact with ethylhexyl acrylate, a carcinogen, can cause burning and irritation of the skin and eyes, and inhalation can irritate the nose and throat, causing shortness of breath and coughing, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Inhalation of isobutylene can cause dizziness and drowsiness as well, while exposure to ethylene glycol monobutyl ether can caused irritation in the eyes, skin, nose, and throat, as well as hematuria, or blood in the urine, nervous system depression, headache, and vomiting, according to the CDC.

The U.S. EPA said Monday night that it "has not yet detected any concerning levels of toxins in the air quality that can be attributed to the crash since the controlled burn was complete," ABC News reported. The agency continues to screen individual homes in close proximity to the site.

Meanwhile, The Independent reported Tuesday that the Ohio EPA has confirmed the presence of chemicals, including butyl acrylate, in the Ohio River basin, potentially affecting up to 25 million people.

"Rather than spending money to upgrade safety and staffing, Norfolk Southern engaged in stock buybacks and laid off employees... There must be accountability."

Contaminants reached the river from an initial spill caused by the derailment, but officials said they "were in low enough level that the river diluted them and said that downriver communities would not be at risk," the outlet reported. The state agency "has been monitoring water quality throughout the region and has not found contaminant levels at any levels they've deemed concerning."

Nevertheless, the Ohio Department of Natural Resources has revealed that at least 3,500 fish have died in Columbiana County, home to East Palestine, since the derailment.

As the full ecological fallout of the disaster continues to come into view, many of East Palestine's roughly 4,700 residents fear that the air and water in the rural town they have been told is safe to return to remains hazardous to their health. At least 2,000 residents have returned, however, due in large part to a lack of viable alternatives owing to their limited resources and incomes.

Norfolk Southern, which reported record-breaking operating revenues of $12.7 billion in 2022, has offered to donate just $25,000 to help affected residents, amounting to roughly $5 per person.

The corporation announced a $10 billion stock buyback program last March and has consistently increased its dividend, rewarding shareholders while refusing to provide its workers with basic benefits such as paid sick leave.

"Rather than spending money to upgrade safety and staffing, Norfolk Southern engaged in stock buybacks and laid off employees," Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) tweeted Tuesday. "Union workers were ignored. The train went up in flames and toxic chemicals are causing a colossal environmental catastrophe. There must be accountability."

Erin Brockovich: Biden Needs to 'Step Up' Efforts on Ohio Train Derailment

By Jeffrey Rodack | Tuesday, 14 February 2023 |Newsmax

Environmental activist Erin Brockovich is calling on President Joe Biden to step up his efforts and get involved in the East Palestine, Ohio, train derailment, which spewed hazardous chemicals.

On Feb. 3, a train carrying the hazardous materials exploded, sparking fears among residents of a potential environmental disaster, and leaving some to question whether the air quality is safe and that the water supply is untainted.

Brockovich on Monday tweeted: "Doing better than your predecessor, is not doing enough. The Biden administration needs to get more involved in this #PalestineOhio train derailment now. We are counting on you to break the chain of administration after administration to turn a blind eye. STEP UP NOW."

The Independent newspaper noted the train operated by Norfolk Southern Railway had derailed, causing a major fire near the track.

Twenty of the 50 cars that derailed were carrying hazardous materials, including vinyl chloride, a toxic and flammable gas and phosgene, a gas deployed as a chemical weapon in World War I.

Many people have complained about feeling "unwell and experiencing headaches since the derailment,” the Independent said. And some claimed their farm animals died after the incident.

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Pete Buttigieg Criticized for Silence on Train Derailment



A Netflix movie 'predicted' the Ohio disaster in the same town it was made

Ariana Baio

Toxic train derailment in Ohio sparks health risk concerns

Aljazeera / VideoElephant

Life imitates art, sometimes in the worst ways.

Residents of East Palestine, Ohio are facing a strange dystopian reality after the plot of the 2022 Netflix movie White Noise seemingly came true earlier this month.

On February 3, a train carrying hazardous chemicals derailed, and exploded, in East Palestine releasing hydrogen chloride and phosgene into the air.

With more than 2,000 residents of the area evacuated, schools closed for a week, and continuous mystery surrounding the long-term toxicity of the chemicals, residents are shaken.

Pete Buttigieg finally speaks out about the deadly Ohio train crash

What is vinyl chloride? The chemical that has caused a disaster in Ohio

But even more so after finding out that the same movie, which was filmed and takes place in Ohio, contains the same plot line.

Based on the 1985 novel of the same name, White Noise, is about a family in Ohio navigating their lives after a freight train carrying hazardous chemicals explodes, leaking them into the air and exposing the family to toxic chemicals.

The eerie story hits close to home for some residents, like Ben Ratner a resident of East Palestine who also offered to be an extra in the movie.

“The first half of the movie is all almost exactly what’s going on here,” Ratner told CNN four days into his and his family’s evacuation.

Ratner, 37, can be seen in White Noise, portraying a man waiting in his car in an evacuation queue.



The author of White Noise, Don DeLillo, likely did not mean to predict the disaster. Instead, he wanted to use a man-made disaster to juxtapose consumerism, conspiracies, death, and more.

The similarities between the situation and the movie are coincidental but it’s hard for people to not draw parallels between the two in a conspiracy-like way.

Even Ratner, his wife, and their four children mirror the Gladney family in White Noise.

He told CNN he’s made jokes about it saying, “I actually made a meme where I superimposed my face on the poster and sent it to my friends.”

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