It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Friday, January 05, 2024
Some Gen Zers can't believe a $74,000 salary is considered 'middle class'
WORKING CLASS IS $100,000
AND UNDER IN NORTH AMERICA
Story by insider@insider.com (Geoff Weiss) • 8h
"It would take you years to save up the $30,000 you would need for a down payment," the TikTok real-estate agent Freddie Smith said.
A recent Newsweek survey indicated Gen Zers didn't consider a $74,580 salary "middle class."
A real-estate TikToker responding to the survey described homeownership as a distant dream for many.
One commenter suggested that "100k is the new 45k."
An Orlando real-estate agent sparked a conversation on TikTok after sharing a survey that suggested Gen Zers didn't consider a $74,580 annual salary "middle class," in contrast with how older generations answered.
In a video with more than 8 million views, the real-estate agent, Freddie Smith, described a Newsweek survey conducted last month among 1,500 participants. Only 41% of Gen Z respondents indicated they considered $74,580 a middle-class salary, while 50% of millennials, 61% of Gen Xers, and 73% of baby boomers said the same.
According to the US Census Bureau, $74,580 was the real median household income in 2022.
Even still, Smith suggested $74,000 was much higher than the average Gen Zers' salary.
Smith broke down theoretical monthly expenses for a "financially responsible" Gen Zer, pegging a monthly take-home salary at roughly $4,300 after taxes, health insurance, and 401(k) investments.
Smith factored in rough estimates for rent ($1,400 for a shared apartment in a midsize city), groceries ($600), and other expenditures such as student loans, car payments, phone bills, and leisure activities. At the end of the month, Smith said, the Gen Zer would be left with about $650 — a meager sum that would make homeownership a distant dream.
"It would take you years to save up the $30,000 you would need for a down payment on a house with the closing cost," he said.
Smith told Business Insider that a housing market in low supply coupled with high interest rates had priced out the average American from buying a home.
He added that he believed housing, college, and daycare costs were the three biggest factors in "moving the middle-class goalpost," estimating that someone starting out their life today would need to make $120,000 to $150,000 "to be considered middle class."
Commenters on TikTok appeared to share his dismay, with some bemoaning what they felt were rising living costs. One person wrote that "100k is the new 45k."
"23 and making 73k, reflect on this often," another said. "My dad raised 3 kids on a bit over 70k, has a house and we took vacations every year…real bummer to think about."
Some Gen Zers have been outspoken about their salary expectations, with some six-figure earners telling Business Insider last year that expenses such as childcare and housing meant they felt they needed to make even more to be comfortable.
Correction: January 4, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misidentified the salary in the Newsweek survey. It was $74,580, not $74,850.
Correction: January 5, 2024 — An earlier version of this story also misidentified the salary in a SmartAsset analysis. It was $54,080, not $52,156. The figure, which applied mostly to millennials, not Gen Zers, was removed from the story.
Wildfires in Alberta burned 10 times more area in 2023 than the five-year average
Alberta Wildfire says it saw an average number of wildfires last year, but the area burned across the province set a record.
The province saw a total of 1,088 wildfires that burned about 22,000 square kilometres from March 1 to Oct. 31. The five-year average for area burned is 2,262 square kilometres.
Melissa Story, community relations co-ordinator for the wildfire management branch in Alberta Forestry and Parks, said 2023 was a record-breaking year.
"The number of wildfires that we responded to last year was average … but the number of hectares burned tells a very different story," she said in an interview.
More than 60 per cent of wildfires were caused by people, while four per cent are still being investigated.
Story said the other 35 per cent of the wildfires were caused by lightning.
Wildfires caused by lightning accounted for 17,500 square kilometres — or 80 per cent of the total that burned in Alberta last year.
Mike Flannigan, a professor of wildland fire at Thompson Rivers University in Kamloops, B.C., said it was an unprecedented year across the country, including in Alberta.
"The previous record (for area burned) was 1981 and it was about 1.3 million hectares (13,000 square kilometres), so it was quite a record-smashing year," he said in an interview.
Related video: 'It's worrisome': Province warning Alberta municipalities of drought heading into 2024 (Global News)
This year we are experiencing an El Nino weather pattern
Flannigan said there are several reasons for the record year across Western Canada, which was either dry or in a drought when spring started in 2023. Then there was a record heat wave, he said.
"It was not just Alberta, but it was northeastern British Columbia and southern Northwest Territories," he said.
"So, the snow's gone, everything is crispy and we get some wind events and ignition and away we go. Hot, dry, windy, we call it. We call them spread days — that's where fire spreads actively — and we had a lot of them (last year) in Alberta."
Flannigan said Alberta often gets wildfires in May, but it typically gets rain in June and that didn't happen in 2023.
"Fires continued to burn through June, July, August, September, even into October," he said. "As a matter of fact, there are still 60-some fires on the books right now and we're in January.
"The fact that there's (61 fires) on the books is just crazy and it's because it's so dry."
Flannigan said Alberta tends to see a bad fire season every three to five years, but should expect to see more because of climate change.
"We are seeing it," he said. "The record-smashing year in Alberta, British Columbia, Northwest Territories, Quebec, Nova Scotia was off the charts."
There are three reasons, he added, for more wildfires in a warmer world.
"The warmer it is, the longer the fire season," said Flannigan. "Second, the warmer we get, the more lightning we see. The more lightning we see, the more likely we are to see lightning-caused fires.
"The third reason is the most important. As we warm, the atmosphere's ability to suck moisture out of the fuel increases almost exponentially. So, unless we see increasing precipitation with these warmer temperatures, we are going to see drier fuel.
"The drier the fuel, the easier it is for a fire to start, the easier it is for a fire to spread."
Flannigan said the dry conditions raise a similar concern going into this year's fire season, which officially starts in Alberta on March 1.
"There's a potential for a very active 2024 fire season, especially in the spring, but no one has a crystal ball," he said.
"Given the way things are, I'd be prepared for a very active fire season."
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 5, 2024.
Colette Derworiz, The Canadian Press
Alberta Medical Association calls for updates to doctor incentives to help address hospital crisis
Story by Lisa Johnson • 1d - POSTMEDIA
The head of the Alberta Medical Association (AMA) says the government needs to immediately update incentives to retain hospital physicians before critical health care programs bleed out.
A contract signed in September 2022 ushered in a broad increase to the physician funding pot, but AMA president and Medicine Hat emergency physician Dr. Paul Parks said within the deal, some specific incentives haven’t been updated for 10 or more years and desperately need an overhaul.
“It’s now become a crisis,” he told Postmedia in an interview Thursday, noting that if the funding system isn’t competitive, the province can’t recruit and retain physicians.
In a letter to AMA members published Thursday, Parks offered a list of five proposals for the provincial government meant to help address the crisis in acute care as hospitals across the country struggle with a depleted workforce and major capacity pressures .
“Everybody’s competing for a really scarce commodity right now, which is the human beings that are skilled in healthcare,” he said.
“It’s in so much turmoil right now, if we don’t do investment up front we’re going to lose more physicians,” he said.
The AMA wants to see updates to alternative relationship plans (ARPs), which are more comparable to a salary than a fee-for-service pay model, and better incentives for after-hours care.
Parks said if not addressed, the current system will continue to discourage doctors from taking late-night hospital shifts, which can in turn disrupt their clinical practices.
“Albertans want to be able to be taken care of in the same fashion at two in the morning as they are at two in the afternoon and that comes with a premium and added cost,” he said.
The letter proposes changing the physician on-call program to better attract specialists like obstetricians, who help deliver babies on demand, and anesthesiologists, who administer anaesthetics to patients during surgeries, including emergency operations.
“We’re trying to incentivize the type of care that would help our hospitals flow 24/7,” said Parks.
Also on the AMA’s wish list is to de-escalate “the stipend crisis.” This includes a variety of top-ups, Parks said, often offered in areas that are difficult to get coverage in, like rural and remote northern communities.
“It’s about transparency and equity, but it’s more around really speeding up things are critical, that if we don’t invest now, we’re going to lose certain critical services,” he said.
Alberta Health did not immediately provide comment to Postmedia Thursday.
Some problematic policies ‘inherited’ from Shandro
“Alberta was just no longer a competitive place to come and work. So we’re behind the eight ball because of that,” he said, adding that Shandro-era roll-backs on compensation for some things like overhead operating costs still sit on the books and need to be removed, even though they haven’t been implemented.
“It’s still kind of hanging over everybody’s head,” said Parks. He emphasized that Health Minister Adriana LaGrange inherited problems, but he believes she is dedicated to working with the AMA to stabilize the system.
“None of the stuff we propose in this letter is new … it’s all issues that have literally been going on for five to 10 years and just have never been addressed or modernized or updated,” he said.
The AMA contends that if the government adopts its proposals, they could measurably improve ER wait times, surgical waits, patient flow, admissions and discharge, patient health outcomes, surgical recovery, after hours care, and specialist availability.
The calls come after Premier Danielle Smith and LaGrange announced in December a $200-million boost expected to fill a short-term gap and help primary care and rural practices around the province. The bump of $100 million in early 2024 and another $100 million in early 2025 is expected to stabilize failing practices until a new payment model is ready.
The money came as part of an agreement with the federal government, announced the same day , promising $1.1 billion over three years, including $285 million per year in new funding from the federal government, and $70 million per year in previously-announced mental health and substance use funding in Alberta.
However, a deal on a new provincial primary care funding model that the AMA has been calling for to provide panel-based funding based on things like patient load and time spent on care and, more broadly, to help keep the lights on in family doctor’s offices, is still in the works.
Hundreds out of work in Terrace Bay, Ont., after pulp mill idles operations
Story by Michelle Allan • CBC
21h
The Terrace Bay Pulp Mill in northwestern Ontario is temporarily shutting down with no opening date in sight.
As the northwestern Ontario town braces for the potential loss of its biggest employer, the mayor and union representing mill workers say they're trying to stay positive.
On Tuesday, the mill's owners, AV Group, which is part of Aditya Birla, announced there will be a "temporary idling of its pulp operations, with immediate effect, due to prevailing market conditions," meaning 400 workers are off the job.
"It's obviously a big blow for Terrace Bay. I mean, we're a population of 1,600 people," said Mayor Paul Malashewski.
The shutdown will be devastating for businesses in the town and ripple through other surrounding communities on the north shore of Lake Superior, he said. NBSK pulp used in everyday paper products
The type of pulp produced in Terrace Bay is premium grade, said pulp industry analyst Brian McClay, chair of Trade Tree Online and Brian McClay & Associates (TTO BMA).
Northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) is used in items like tissue, toilet paper and paper towels.
"It's really the best pulp fibre in the world," he said. "It's the thing that holds the sheet together."
As mills producing NBSK shut down, manufacturers could face greater difficulty and higher expenses in making these products, and consumers could find themselves paying more for flimsier toilet paper.
Terrace Bay, which is about 220 kilometres northeast of Thunder Bay, was once an economically thriving town. The pulp mill, which was established in the 1940s, grew to employ thousands of people by the late 1970s.
The mill fell on hard times in the early 2000s when the pulp and paper industry entered a period of uncertainty. It went through cycles of shutting down, changing ownership, then shutting down again as different owners found themselves in debt.
Malashewski said he's optimistic the mill will reopen as it has after previous closures. It will be kept in a state of warm idle to allow for a potential future restart of operations, leaving the mayor hopeful.
"It's a positive sign," he said. "I mean, they just didn't shut it down, and turn the heat off and all that."
Union mill workers also hope the market conditions cited as the reason for closure will improve.
"The markets change. There's really good reason to keep that place operating. It's an efficient mill," said Cody Alexander, staff representative for the United Steel Workers (USW) in Thunder Bay.
Workers 'kind of in shock,' union says
The union represents approximately 275 of the mill's steelworkers who are now without employment, said Alexander.
"Everybody's kind of in shock right now about it. It's a really small community and that pulp mill is the anchor."
Currently, pulp prices are low and demand is weak, said McClay.
"We went through a couple of pretty volatile years where prices reached record levels and now they've come back down," said McClay.
Pulp mills are expensive to operate and maintain, he said, and inflation has exacerbated this. Some mills have closed even when pulp prices are high due to the sheet capital investment required to operate.
"It's not just a question of where the market is today; it's what companies have to spend to keep the mills in decent running order."
McClay said he couldn't predict whether the Terrace Bay mill will reopen.
Canada could face more record-breaking heat this year. How can we prepare for wildfires?
Low snowpack and higher temperatures forecast for El Niño year already raising wildfire concerns CBC Fri, January 5, 2024 The Eagle Bluff Wildfire crosses the border from Washington State on July 30, prompting evacuation orders in Osoyoos, B.C. (Jesse Winter/Reuters)
The first week of January isn't usually wildfire season. But as 2024 began, more than 100 "zombie fires" were actively burning in British Columbia — holdovers from last summer that typically go dormant over winter.
"That is mind boggling to me. Just unheard of," said Lori Daniels, a professor with the University of British Columbia's department of forest and conservation sciences.
The warm, dry weather that capped off what is expected to be declared the planet's hottest year on record — and Canada's most destructive wildfire season by a longshot, with more than 6,500 fires burning close to 19 million hectares — is not over.
With the global El Niño weather system continuing through this spring, forecasts suggest 2024 could be even hotter — prompting wildfire and public policy experts to call for more wildfire prevention efforts now.
"The whole concept of business as usual is out the window," said John Robinson, a professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy and the School of the Environment at the University of Toronto, adding governments, NGOs and social support organizations have to learn to be more adaptive.
"Unfortunately, response to disaster isn't a time where you get a lot of creative policy," he said. "We need proactive or pre-emptive response."
Why 2024 is already worrying
Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) is projecting above-normal temperatures across the country at least through fall, and about 70 per cent above normal in April through June.
"There's really no indication of below normal or, until we get maybe to the late fall, even near normal," said Bill Merryfield, a research scientist with ECCC's Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis.
ECCC is also projecting below-normal snowpack across all provinces through spring, leading to drier conditions come summer. In December, snowpack was less than a quarter of what's normal across much of southern Canada, Merryfield said.
NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will release their official 2023 temperature numbers on Jan. 12, but all data so far indicates 2023 was the hottest on record globally.
Tom Di Liberto, climate scientist and public affairs specialist with NOAA, said when El Niño events straddle two years, it is typically the second year that ends up being hotter, indicating a strong possibility that temperatures could increase again in 2024. A recent example was 2016, the previous hottest year on record following El Niño.
"When you have back-to-back years of such extreme temperatures, it's kind of allowing the possibility to be a bit more severe," Di Liberto said. Two people are pictured waiting for a boat ride across Shuswap lake to Celista from Sorrento, B.C., while evacuating from wildfires on Aug. 19. (Ben Nelms/CBC)
Kevin Hanna, director of the University of British Columbia's Centre for Environmental Assessment Research and a former wildfire fighter, says the increasingly extreme heat and drought conditions have led people in disaster-prone regions to develop a "fear of summer and what it will bring."
"Is this the summer where my farm or ranch gets hit? Is this the summer when my town has to evacuate? You see it on people's face, you hear it in their voice," " Hanna said. "I know ranchers who have lost property— terrible flood damage, terrible wildfire damage."
Protecting infrastructure
Daniels said it is time for governments to increase investment in programs to help people make their homes more fire resistant, and to ensure all new builds in fire-prone areas follow FireSmart principles like those laid out by Natural Resources Canada.
She said Canadians in fire-prone areas can implement these principles themselves by tidying up yards, making sure there is no burnable debris in the gutters or under decks, and reconfiguring gardens so rocks are closer to buildings and flammable vegetation is pulled further away.
She said communities across Canada should start making emergency plans of action before spring, and accepting that it's not a matter of "if, but when" fire is coming to their communities.
Hanna said Canada needs to have a bigger conversation about prevention and managing risk by reducing the vulnerability of infrastructure, and suggests wildfire vulnerability assessments and considerations become "part of everything we do in the permitting and review process" for major infrastructure projects like pipelines, power lines, highways and railways.
A likely unpopular suggestion heading into a dry and drought-prone year is that we might have to rethink some routine summer activities Canadians take for granted, Hanna says, including potentially limiting access to certain parts of the backcountry.
"If we want to keep areas safe, we might have to say people aren't allowed to go there. Because some people do things they shouldn't do," Hanna said.
"One spark from an ATV or a hot muffler on a dirt bike or something is going to potentially cause a huge amount of trouble."
Michael Norton, director general of the Canadian Forest Service with Natural Resources Canada, said the federal government is working on preventative measures through programs like the Wildfire Resilient Futures Initiative, which is investing $285 million over five years with a focus on prevention and mitigation, including reinforcing the FireSmart Canada program.
Fighting fire with fire
Counterintuitively, more fire could help prevent the most destructive blazes this summer.
"[Fire] is maybe the only natural disaster, where on one hand, it's extremely destructive, and on the other hand, is part of the solution," Daniels said, adding that Canada's forest management has focused primarily on maximizing economic benefit, which has increased the landscape's fire vulnerability.
"We've just left too much woody debris down on the ground, and that's fueling these new fires. And it's killing regenerating young forests that are 20 and 30 years old," she said. A firefighter watches a prescribed burn proceed near Lytton in 2014. (B.C. Wildfire Management Branch)
Norton, said prescribed burns, forest thinning and Indigenous cultural burning practices are an important piece of fire mitigation that fire managers are deploying more often.
"Prescribed fire is not is not putting something artificial onto the landscape. It's using something that is in fact part of nature, in a controlled way to reduce risks," he said.
"Part of the challenge that we've had in this country over many decades of fire management is a disproportionate emphasis on only fire suppression activities," Norton said.
"All the provinces and territories are increasingly trying to shift focus towards a greater emphasis on preventing human-caused wildfires in the first place, and proactively mitigating risks from fires before they occur." Collaboration and local expertise
Hanna says it is important to identify institutional barriers that are preventing controlled burns from being done sooner, such as multiple levels of decision making spread across different agencies.
He said that applies to Canada's model of firefighting as well, which has become "very centralized" and "elitist," run by provincial bodies that do not always work as closely as they could with locals.
"I think we have to rediscover the value of local people, their expertise and knowledge. Particularly in parts of rural communities in Canada, remote communities in Canada, where there's a lot of folks who know the land, know how to run machinery, who can work in a collaborative way with forest wildfire services to to be proactive, as well as reactive," he said. The burned remains of the Scotch Creek & Lee Creek Fire Department and community hall are seen in Scotch Creek, B.C. in September. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press)
Those people also have a vested interest in protecting their homes and communities, but getting them on board can sometimes be a last-minute scramble.
"How can you deploy those resources quickly without going through a two-day procurement process or form-filling process? That's very important," Hanna said.
Norton said the federal government has recognized this and is committing more than $800 million to invest and train additional firefighters with a particular focus on Indigenous people, and working to bolster firefighting equipment on reserves.
"Our training funding is targeting a fairly local level," he said.
Daniels said Canada's wildfire response has been strong, as evidenced by a lack of civilian deaths last year despite the massive destruction of property. She worries, however, that our past successes may be "one of our barriers to future adaptation."
The dangers to human life are also becoming evident, with eight firefighters losing their lives fighting wildfires across Canada in 2023.
"The firefighter deaths rocked the wildfire community across the country," Norton said.
Apart from the sheer number and size of fires in 2023, firefighters are dealing with increasingly severe fire behaviour like the proliferation of pyrocumulonimbus clouds, thunderstorms created and driven by the heat of extreme fires that can sometimes create new fires.
But among the challenges, Norton points to some major federal successes. He said Canada brought in more than 5,600 firefighters from 12 other countries to help fight fires in 2023 and signed new agreements to ensure support from other countries moving forward.
The Canadian Forest Service also delivered new wildfire intelligence tactical mapping products to provinces and territories, and in 2023 the U.S. Department of Defense deployed FireGuard, a new high-tech fire detection system, to help Canada battle wildfires using real-time data from drones and satellites to help detect new flareups in remote areas for the first time.
"We had, under incredible pressure, had some quite striking successes that we are working very hard to learn from to be able to reproduce as and when necessary in the future," Norton said.
SASKATCHEWAN Union suspends strike action as Viterra offers workers new four-year offer The Canadian Press Fri, January 5, 2024
REGINA — A looming strike action for Saskatchewan workers at Viterra has been suspended after the grain marketing giant gave the union a revised offer.
Two locals of the Grain and General Services Union say members should have the opportunity to vote on the new offer.
Workers rejected Viterra’s last offer after a vote on Dec. 15 and issued a 72-hour strike notice earlier this week.
A news release from Viterra says the new four-year agreement includes overall salary increases of 4.5 per cent in first year, followed by 3.75 per cent in the second and 2.5 per cent in the following years.
The company says employees will continue to be eligible for an annual bonus payment.
Viterra says a vote is scheduled to take place in the coming weeks.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 5, 2023.
Union suspends planned strike at Viterra grain operations in Saskatchewan
Fri, January 5, 2024 By Rod Nickel
WINNIPEG, Manitoba (Reuters) -The union representing more than 400 workers at Viterra's facilities in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan suspended plans for a strike on Friday to allow for a vote on the Rotterdam-based grain handler's latest contract offer.
The Grain and General Services Union said in the period leading up to the vote, employees will work to rule, meaning they will not take on tasks beyond their contractual and legal obligations.
Viterra is one of Canada's largest handlers of wheat, canola and other crops. The company is owned by commodity giant Glencore, the investment arm of the Canada Pension Plan and British Columbia Investment Management Corp.
Saskatchewan is Canada's biggest grain-growing province.
Viterra said in a statement that it is offering a four-year contract, with pay increases of 4.5% in the first year, 3.75% in the second year and 2.5% in each of the final two years.
The worker vote will happen in the coming days and ballots will be counted on Jan. 19, the union said.
A strike would have a "huge impact" on farmers' cash flow, particularly those with contracts to sell crops to Viterra, said Ian Boxall, president of the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan.
Boxall said Viterra represents 27% of Saskatchewan's capacity at country elevators, the facilities that buy crops from farmers and transport them to processors and millers.
A strike would also back up grain transportation to British Columbia ports, which export much of Canada's harvest, Boxall said. Canada is the world's biggest exporter of canola and fourth-largest wheat exporter.
The two sides had met on Wednesday and Thursday with a federal mediator.
Workers were in strike position as of 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) on Friday. The employees work in operations, maintenance and the company's Canadian head office.
Bunge Ltd, a rival commodity firm, said last year that it would acquire Viterra, subject to regulatory approval in Canada and elsewhere.
(Reporting by Rod Nickel in Winnipeg and Shivani Tanna in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila, Paul Simao and Diane Craft)
Norfolk Southern (NS) reported that its inaugural plan aimed at “reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with a focus on transitioning to a low-carbon economy” was released Jan. 4.
(Courtesy of NS)
The Climate Transition Plan (download below) is slated to help NS achieve its science-based target of reducing GHG emissions intensity 42% by 2034, the Class I reported. The Plan identifies three key ways for doing so: a 13% improvement in locomotive fuel efficiency by 2027, a commitment to increasing renewable energy usage to 30% by 2030, and 20% consumption of low-carbon fuels (biofuels) by 2034. Fuel is said to account for more than 90% of NS’s scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions.
The Plan covers governance, GHG accounting and verification, scenario analysis, risks and opportunities, financial planning, targets, strategy (example above), value chain engagement and low-carbon initiatives, and policy engagement. It will be reviewed and updated every two to five years. NS said that any material changes to its decarbonization targets would result in an updated Plan.
“I am pleased to introduce Norfolk Southern’s inaugural Climate Transition Plan (CTP), another milestone in our longstanding commitment to environmental stewardship and sustainability,” NS Chief Sustainability Officer Josh Raglin wrote in the Plan. “Rail is the most sustainable way to move freight over land. As one of the nation’s leading freight railroads, we understand the critical role we play in reducing supply chain emissions and fostering a transition to a low-carbon economy. We remain focused on building a better planet, a brighter future for our employees and our communities, and partnering with our customers to achieve their sustainability goals.”
The NTSB observed the inspection and disassembly of wheelset #4 from railcar 7200, which caused the 2021 Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority derailment in Virginia. “In accordance with wheelset design, each wheel should have been flush against its bearing when mounted,” NTSB wrote in its January 2023 derailment investigation report. “Before disassembly, the inspection identified gaps between both wheels and their respective bearings: about 0.63 inches for the right-side wheel and about 1.10 inches for the left-side wheel [see above] … The back-to-back measurement was about 55.375 inches, or about 2 inches wider than the maximum design specification.” (NTSB Image)
The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) on Jan. 4 issued its final report on the October 2021 Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) train derailment in Arlington, Va., attributing the cause to a wheelset irregularity. Chair Jennifer Homendy was critical of both the transit agency’s “safety culture” and the Federal Transit Administration’s (FTA) oversight.
Map showing the Rosslyn derailment on WMATA system. (NTSB Image)
WMATA’s train 407, comprising eight Kawasaki Rail Car-built 7000 series railcars and carrying 187 riders and the operator, derailed Oct. 12, 2021, while traveling from Rosslyn Station toward Arlington Cemetery Station on the Blue Line in Arlington, Va. (see map above). The derailment occurred in a tunnel south of the Rosslyn Station platform. All railcars remained upright and in-line. No injuries were reported; one passenger was transported to the hospital, treated and released.
The derailment occurred “because the wheels of one wheelset [on railcar No. 7200] had migrated outward on their axle, resulting in a width larger than the design specification,” according to the NTSB (download the agency’s report and watch the video recreation below). “The wheel migration happened over time, eventually causing the wheelset to exceed [by two inches] its maximum design width [of 53-3/8 inches]. When this wheelset traveled over a turnout … the out-of-specification wheelset width caused a wheel to leave the rail, derailing a railcar.”
NTSB also reported finding that “one department within WMATA was aware of wheel migration in its railcar fleet and attempted to mitigate the associated safety risks.”
According to the NTSB report, “WMATA observed cases of wheels migrating outward on their axles over time in the pre-7000-series fleet (the legacy fleet) in 2014 and responded by increasing the interference specification for the 7000-series, which was then in production. As a result, at the time of the derailments, the 7000-series fleet included wheelsets assembled under two different interference specifications: 0.0035-0.0060 inches (original) and 0.0045-0.0065 inches (after June 16, 2017, when WMATA approved revised design drawings from Kawasaki). These specifications resulted in wheelsets with mounting forces of 55-80 tons (original) and 65-95 tons (after revision).” The NTSB said that “[a]ccording to WMATA’s records, axle #4 on railcar 7200 was assembled under the original specification on April 8, 2016. The interference for both wheels was 0.0044 inches, resulting in a mounting force of 64 tons for the right wheel and 58 tons for the left wheel.”
NSTB reported that WMATA “did not conduct a trend analysis to monitor the incidence of wheel migration or how effective its mitigations were.” A trend analysis, NTSB said, “would have shown the increasing incidence of wheel migration and made an effective response more likely.”
WMATA has “since made improvements to its safety management systems and has plans to expand its use of trend analysis and related tools to identify and mitigate safety risks before accidents occur,” according to NTSB. “The oversight of the Washington Metrorail Safety Commission is vital to supporting and monitoring these ongoing improvements.”
NTSB Chair Jennifer Homendy
“With any NTSB investigation, the key isn’t determining what happened, which we know pretty early on, but it’s how it happened,” Homendy said during a Jan. 4 press conference on the NTSB report release (scroll down to watch). “That’s how we prevent future accidents and tragedies. But once we issue safety recommendations, those recommendations need to be acted upon, otherwise safety isn’t assured. Since 1982, the NTSB has investigated 15 accidents on the WMATA rail system. In total we’ve issued 125 safety recommendations to WMATA, the oldest of those recommendations date back to 1970 when the system was still under construction. I want to read it to you. We recommended to WMATA to develop the capability within your organization for system safety engineering [SMS] … and apply system safety principles to all aspects of the proposed rail system. And here’s the key: to identify, assess and correct those deficiencies identified by the analysis. Since that recommendation was issued in 1970, we’ve consistently identified WMATA’s failure to adequately assess and mitigate safety risk; WMATA’s poor safety culture; and the failure of our federal government to oversee, regulate and enforce safety on our nation’s public rail transit systems, which are responsible for safely transporting millions of passengers daily. WMATA alone transports an average of 287,000 people every day.”
Homendy noted that “operators like WMATA are absolutely responsible for ensuring the safety of their systems, but when they can’t or they won’t or when there are repeated safety issues, it’s up to federal and state governments to take action to ensure safety of public citizens.” The Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act of 2015 “gave DOT, in particular the FTA the authority to regulate and enforce safety standards for public transit systems,” she said. “To date they have not exercised this authority. I will note that the FAST Act also stated that in exercising that authority, USDOT should consider relevant NTSB recommendations asking DOT to act and to implement minimum safety standards and to enforce those safety standards. Those recommendations for the NTSB go back to 1978 … And yet, here we are today with unenforceable voluntary safety standards, in what we call a National Public Transportation Safety Plan. As a result, there are no enforceable federal standards for the Washington Metrorail Safety Commission to hold WMATA accountable. Let me put a finer point on this. If I wanted to haul a freight train full of coal through West Virginia today, there is a large book of federal standards I’d have to abide by. But if I want to operate a transit train loaded with passengers at rush hour in the nation’s capital capitol, there are no federal minimal standards required. None. FTA’s failure to take their authority seriously is evident in their party submission to the NTSB. Their party submission states: It would be our recommendation to NTSB to prevent similar events, to encourage all transit agencies operating heavy rail transit cars exceeding 20,000 pounds to increase the interference fit and press force on wheelsets to freight industry standards, which WMATA has done. But you don’t need to recommend it if you’re FTA. You don’t need to encourage it. You need to mandate it. You have the authority to do so, just like we do for every other mode of transportation: aviation, marine, pipeline, highways, freight and intercity passenger rail—they’re all regulated and those regulations are enforceable. So, I’m calling on FTA to take immediate action to regulate and enforce safety on our nation’s public transit rail systems.”
Post-Derailment Actions
On Oct. 17, 2021, the Washington Metrorail Safety Commission (WMSC) ordered WMATA to remove the 7000-series fleet from revenue service, develop a response to wheel gage anomalies in 7000-series railcars, and implement a plan for safely returning 7000-series railcars to revenue service, according to the NTSB. On Dec. 29, 2021, WMSC issued an additional order, setting criteria for WMATA to meet before returning the 7000-series fleet to revenue service. These criteria included internal oversight practices, data-driven revision of inspection frequency, and WMSC approval of WMATA’s return-to-service plan, NTSB reported. WMSC also required WMATA to develop and implement corrective action plans related to the 7000-series fleet and to emergency response, according to NTSB, which noted that “[t]hese plans are intended to improve accountability, risk management, and the efficacy of train operators and ROCC [Rail Operations Control Center] personnel in handling emergencies.”
On Nov. 1, 2021, the FTA issued a Safety Advisory, SA-21-1, requiring State Safety Oversight Agencies “to report information about out-of-tolerance wheel gages to the FTA within 30 days,” according to NTSB, which said the FTA did not receive any other reports. SA-21-1 also advised the State Safety Oversight Agencies “to require fleet-wide inspections of wheel gages on all rail transit vehicles in revenue service,” NTSB said.
After the Rosslyn derailment, WMATA inspected all 2,992 wheelsets in the 7000-series fleet, finishing in November 2022, according to NTSB. “These inspections identified about 50 Railroad Investigation Report RIR-23-15 30 wheelsets that had exhibited outward wheel migration reaching or exceeding the 53.375-inch maximum specification, bringing the total number of affected wheelsets in the 7000-series fleet to about 80,” NTSB reported. “None exhibited wheel migration as pronounced as the 2-inch exceedance measured on wheelset #4 of railcar 7200 after the Rosslyn derailment.”
Following the derailment, NTSB investigation, and orders from the WMSC, NTSB reported that WMATA removed the 748 7000-series cars from service and developed a return-to-service plan that includes “replacement of all wheelsets in the 7000-series fleet with wheelsets assembled with an interference of 0.0065-0.0080 inches and a mounting force of 80–120 tons.”
NTSB reported that based on a “Hatch LTK report, and on related reports WMATA obtained from MxV and Kawasaki Rail Car, WMATA’s wheelset replacement program for the 7000-series fleet calls for increasing the interference specification to 0.0065-0.0080 inches (resulting in a mounting force of 80–120 tons) to correct insufficient interference fits, which WMATA assessed as the reason for the wheel migration.” According to NTSB, WMATA began replacing wheelsets July 31, 2023, and the replacement process for the entire fleet is scheduled to take three years. (For more on WMATA’s wheelset retrofit program, read: “WMATA Addressing ‘Pressing’ Problem.”)
“WMATA has been physically inspecting 7000-series wheelsets at 30-day intervals and plans to continue this practice for non-replaced wheelsets,” NTSB reported. “Replaced wheelsets will be physically inspected at 60-day intervals. WMATA is also deploying automated wayside inspection systems to monitor back-to-back measurements to supplement these physical inspections.”
Due to the two-year-old shortage of 7000-series equipment, which comprises roughly 60% of its fleet, WMATA said in December that it “continues to utilize its oldest, least-reliable railcars in the legacy fleet. As more 7000-series railcars are completed, tested and able to run longer between inspection intervals, we will gradually be able to increase the number in service, providing customers with more reliability and comfort. This will allow us to eventually remove the older, legacy railcar fleet from service.”
WMATA 7000-Series Rapid Transit Cars: Courtesy Wikipedia
According to the NTSB report, the current version of WMATA’s public transportation agency safety plan adopted after the Rosslyn derailment “includes additional criteria for when departments must perform trend analyses, along with clarified standards on reporting risks to the ESC [WMATA Executive Safety Committee] and internal oversight. These changes are intended to ensure that risk mitigations are being followed and are working as intended.” Additionally, WMATA has undertaken changes to its maintenance program, including “revising existing processes and implementing new processes to identify safety critical items for all assets, setting system-wide criteria for reporting and tracking risks, automating trend reports, and establishing triggers for informing executives of adverse safety trends,” NTSB said. WMATA plans to finalize organizational changes and begin recruiting staff to support the new processes and tools in early 2024, according to the federal safety agency.
NTSB Conclusions
Following are the NTSB investigative report findings:
None of the following issues contributed to the derailment: defects in the track or infrastructure; signals and train control systems; the train operator’s physical readiness for duty; and the train operator’s train handling.
“The derailment of train 407 south of Rosslyn Station was caused by the out-of-specification widened wheelset #4 on railcar 7200 and its interaction with special track work.”
“The out-of-specification back-to-back measurement on wheelset #4 was caused by incremental wheel migration over time.”
“Had the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) used trend analysis to assess the efficacy of its risk mitigation strategies for wheel migration, WMATA would have identified the increasing incidence of wheel migration in time to adopt more effective mitigation measures.”
“While the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) has a history of safety lapses related to risk identification and mitigation, its proposed additional processes and resources for expanding the role of trend analysis in identifying safety risks would, if implemented, increase the likelihood of WMATA successfully identifying and mitigating safety risks before accidents occur.”
“Washington Metrorail Safety Commission oversight of the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority’s (WMATA) planned implementation of trend analysis is necessary to ensure that the WMATA’s operations remain compliant with the safety management system documented in its public transportation agency safety plan, and that the as-implemented changes to trend analysis support continuing improvements in identifying and mitigating risks.”
NTSB Recommendations
As a result of NTSB’s investigation, it recommended that WMATA “[i]mplement processes and resources to expand the role of trend analysis in identifying and mitigating safety risks. (R-23-28)” and that the Washington Metrorail Safety Commission “[d]evelop and implement a program to support and monitor” WMATA’s use of trend analysis within its safety management system. (R-23-29).
WMATA’s Response
“Metro [WMATA] fully supports the NTSB Derailment report and thanks all parties to the investigation for their leadership and thoughtful approach,” WMATA reported in a Jan. 4 post on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter. “The collaboration and professionalism between the NTSB and WMSC have been critical to our ability to move this process forward, and we appreciate that our proactive steps have been acknowledged. Metro has issued a fleet defect notice to Kawasaki related to our performance-based contract. Based on the contract, Kawasaki is responsible to pay all costs to fix this wheelset defect [at an estimated cost of $55 million]. We are confident that our current Wheelset Replacement program will address this wheelset defect as we work over the next several years to repress all 7000-series wheelsets at a higher press tonnage and increased interference fit.”
Kawasaki Speaks Out
“As expected, the NTSB’s conclusions align with our own findings and confirm that Kawasaki met the design and mounting specifications established by WMATA for the 7000 series wheelsets,” Kawasaki said in a statement released to Railway Age. “While we understand the budget crisis that WMATA is facing, any suggestion that Kawasaki should absorb the cost of WMATA’s own failures regarding the wheelsets of the 7000 series trains is not rooted in reality. As a reminder, WMATA supplied the wheelset design for the 7000 series railcars to match their older railcars and then failed to alert Kawasaki when they increased the mounting pressure for those older railcars after they identified 33 instances of back-to-back failures in 2014 –before the first 7000 series car was even delivered. The mismanagement by WMATA under prior leadership, cited in the NTSB’s final report, comes as no surprise to those who have followed the agency. We look forward to seeing the 7000 series railcars resume their legacy of safety and reliability as WMATA implements the recommendations outlined in the NTSB’s report.”
![The NTSB observed the inspection and disassembly of wheelset #4 from railcar 7200, which caused the 2021 Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority derailment in Virginia. “In accordance with wheelset design, each wheel should have been flush against its bearing when mounted,” NTSB wrote in its January 2023 derailment investigation report. “Before disassembly, the inspection identified gaps between both wheels and their respective bearings: about 0.63 inches for the right-side wheel and about 1.10 inches for the left-side wheel [see above] … The back-to-back measurement was about 55.375 inches, or about 2 inches wider than the maximum design specification.” (NTSB Image)](https://www.railwayage.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/lead.png)
