STOP BEAR HUNTING

Biden administration may lift some protections for grizzlies, opening door to hunting

Montana, Wyoming and Idaho want federal protections lifted so they can regain management of grizzly bears and offer hunts to the public.
(Jim Urquhart / Associated Press)

BY MATTHEW BROWN
ASSOCIATED PRESS

FEB. 3, 2023 

BILLINGS, Mont. —

The Biden administration took a first step Friday toward ending federal protections for grizzly bears in the northern Rocky Mountains, which would open the door to hunting in Montana, Wyoming and Idaho.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service said state officials provided “substantial” information that grizzlies have recovered from the threat of extinction in the regions surrounding Yellowstone and Glacier national parks.

But federal officials rejected claims by Idaho that protections should be lifted beyond those areas and raised concerns about new laws from the Republican-led states that could potentially harm grizzly populations.

“We will fully evaluate these and other potential threats,” said Martha Williams, director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Friday’s move kicks off at least a year of study before final decisions are made about the Yellowstone and Glacier regions.

The states want protections lifted so they can regain management of grizzlies and offer hunts to the public. As grizzly populations have expanded, more of the animals have moved into areas occupied by people, creating public safety issues and problems for farmers. State officials have insisted that future hunts would be limited and would not endanger the overall grizzly population.


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After grizzlies temporarily lost their protections in the Yellowstone region several years ago, Wyoming and Idaho scheduled hunts that would have allowed fewer than two dozen bears to be killed in the initial season. In Wyoming, almost 1,500 people applied for 12 grizzly bear licenses in 2018 before the hunt was blocked in federal court. About a third of the applicants came from out of the state. Idaho issued just one grizzly license before the hunt was blocked.

Republican lawmakers in the region in recent years also adopted more aggressive policies against gray wolves, including loosened trapping rules that could lead to grizzlies being inadvertently killed.

As many as 50,000 grizzlies once roamed the western half of the U.S. They were exterminated in most of the country early in the last century by over-hunting and trapping, and the last hunts in the northern Rockies occurred decades ago. There are now more than 2,000 bears in the lower 48 states and much larger populations in Alaska, where hunting is allowed.



The species’ expansion in the Glacier and Yellowstone areas has led to conflicts, including periodic bear attacks on livestock and the fatal mauling of humans.

Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte welcomed the administration’s announcement and said it could lead to the state reclaiming management of a species that was placed under federal protection in 1975. He said the grizzly’s recovery “represents a conservation success.”

Montana held grizzly hunts until 1991 under an exemption to the federal protections that allowed 14 bears to be killed each fall.

The federal government in 2017 sought to remove protections for the Yellowstone ecosystem’s grizzlies under former President Trump. The hunts in Wyoming and Idaho were set to begin when a judge restored protections, siding with environmental groups that said delisting wasn’t based on sound science.

Those groups want federal protections kept in place and no hunting allowed so bears can continue to move into new areas.


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“We should not be ready to trust the states,” said attorney Andrea Zaccardi of the Center for Biological Diversity.

Dave Evans, a hunting guide with Wood River Ranch in Meeteetse, Wyo., said the issue is complex, and he can understand why people fall on both sides of the debate.

“You have so many opinions, and some of them are not based on science, but the biologists are the ones that know the facts about what the populations are and what should be considered a goal for each area,” Evans said. “If you’re going to manage grizzly bears, there’s a sustainable number that needs to be kept in balance. I’m not a biologist, but I would follow the science.

U.S. government scientists have said the region’s grizzlies are biologically recovered but in 2021 decided that protections were still needed because of human-caused bear deaths and other pressures. Bears considered to be problematic are regularly killed by wildlife officials.

Demand for hunting licenses would likely be high if the protections are lifted, Evans said.

“You would definitely have a higher demand, and it would probably be very expensive,” Evans said. “A guided bear hunt in Alaska can start around $20,000, so I would imagine it would be very sought-after.”

A decision on the states’ petitions was long overdue. Idaho Gov. Brad Little on Thursday filed notice that he intended to sue over the delay. Idaho’s petition was broader than the one filed by Montana and sought to lift protections nationwide. That would have included small populations of bears in Idaho, Montana and Washington state, where biologists say the animals have not yet recovered to sustainable levels. It also could have prevented the return of bears to the North Cascades and other areas.

In an emailed statement, Little said the decision was “seven months late.” Under the Endangered Species Act, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is supposed to issue a finding within 90 days, to the extent that is practical. That deadline arrived last June, the governor’s office said.

“While we continue to evaluate the decision from USFWS, this is another example of federal overreach and appears to have a disproportionate impact on North Idaho,” Little wrote. He said his office would “continue to push back against the federal government.”

Grizzly bear encounters are rare in northern Idaho, though wildlife managers occasionally warn people to be on the watch. In 2021, Idaho Fish and Game officials estimated that there were 40 to 50 grizzly bears in the northernmost part of the state.

ECOCIDE

Brazil Says It’s Started Sinking an Old Warship, Hazardous Material and All

The navy said it had begun an operation to send the aircraft carrier São Paulo to the bottom.

São Paulo in the Atlantic off Rio de Janeiro in 2011. Once the flagship of the Brazilian Navy, it had not seen active service in roughly a decade.

Credit...Brazilian Navy, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

By Manuela Andreoni
Feb. 3, 2023

RIO DE JANEIRO — The Brazilian Navy said on Friday evening it had begun an operation to sink the decommissioned aircraft carrier São Paulo, packed with an undetermined amount of asbestos and other toxic materials, about 220 miles off the country’s northeastern coast.

A navy news release did not give details of the operation, and it was not clear whether the ship had gone down. Naval officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The carrier had spent months at sea, refused permission to dock back in Brazil after plans to recycle the ship in Turkey collapsed. Environmental groups accused Brazilian officials and the company that owned the ship of underreporting the amount of hazardous material aboard. Under pressure from environmental groups, Turkey canceled permission for São Paulo to dock after the ship and its tug had already reached Gibraltar.

The vessel, by then in need of maintenance, was forced to head back to Brazil, where it was similarly refused permission to dock by civilian officials. The navy, for unexplained reasons, also refused to offer its bases. So the ship spent months being towed in circles as its condition deteriorated.

A navy news release this week warned of “deteriorating hull buoyancy conditions and the inevitability of spontaneous/uncontrolled sinking.”

Officials had said earlier that the 30,000-ton carrier would be sunk off Pernambuco State at a spot about three miles deep, outside any environmentally protected zones or areas with undersea cables.

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Feb. 2, 2023

In the last decade, according to the Shipbreaking Platform, a watchdog organization that advocates for sustainable recycling, Brazilian companies have disposed of more than 50 vessels in South Asia, where regulations for handling toxic materials are lax.

“Several of these vessels were exported from Brazilian ports without following the international rules on trans-boundary movements of hazardous waste,” said Nicola Mulinaris, a policy adviser at Shipbreaking Platform.

The plan to recycle São Paulo in Turkey was thought to be Brazil’s first effort to scrap a ship under well-regulated conditions.

The toxic material aboard São Paulo could disrupt ecosystems, kill animals and plants and poison marine food chains with heavy metals, according to IBAMA, Brazil’s environmental agency.

Rosângela Muniz, the interim director of IBAMA’s environmental quality department, said the agency had asked the navy for information, including the method that would be used to sink the ship, so it could help mitigate the impact. There had been no response by the end of business on Friday.

Ms. Muniz said her team was frustrated that the effort to recycle São Paulo sustainably had failed.

“This ship is an environmental liability that has only one correct destination: recycling,” she said. “We know there will be other requests like this one that will get to IBAMA, and we hope they will have an outcome that is better for the environment.”

Manuela Andreoni is a writer for the Climate Forward newsletter, currently based in Brazil. She was previously a fellow at the Rainforest Investigations Network, where she examined the forces that drive deforestation in the Amazon. @manuelaandreoni

A version of this article appears in print on Feb. 4, 2023, Section A, Page 8 of the New York edition with the headline: Brazil Plans to Sink Warship Packed With Toxic Materials. 


Brazil sinks aircraft carrier in Atlantic despite pollution risk

Critics of Brazil’s planned sinking of the decommissioned Sao Paulo aircraft carrier described it as a ‘state-sponsored environmental crime’.

A photo taken in 1994 shows the then-French aircraft carrier 'Foch' in the Adriatic Sea. Renamed 'Sao Paulo' when bought by Brazil in 2000, the ageing and decommissioned aircraft carrier was sunk on Friday February 3, 2023 in the Atlantic Ocean, Brazil's Navy said [File/AFP]

Published On 4 Feb 2023

Brazil has sunk a decommissioned aircraft carrier in the Atlantic Ocean despite concerns expressed by environmental groups that the ageing warship was packed with toxic materials.

The “planned and controlled sinking occurred late in the afternoon” on Friday, some 350 km (220 miles) off the Brazilian coast in the Atlantic Ocean, in an area with an “approximate depth of 5,000 meters [16,000 feet]”, Brazil’s Navy said in a statement.

The decision to scuttle the six-decade-old aircraft carrier “Sao Paulo” came after Brazilian authorities had tried in vain to find a port willing to welcome the vessel.

Though defence officials said they would sink the vessel in the “safest area”, environmentalists attacked the decision, saying the warship contained tonnes of asbestos, heavy metals and other toxic materials that could leach into the water and pollute the marine food chain.

The Basel Action Network had called on newly-elected Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva -who took office last month pledging to reverse surging environmental destruction under far-right ex-President Jair Bolsonaro – to immediately halt the “dangerous” plan to scuttle the ship.

The NGO Shipbreaking Platform – a coalition of environmental, labour and human rights organisations – had described Brazil’s planned sinking of the Sao Paulo as potentially a “state-sponsored environmental crime”.

Built in the late 1950s in France, whose navy sailed the aircraft carrier for 37 years as the Foch, the warship had earned a place in 20th-century naval history. The Sao Paulo took part in France’s first nuclear tests in the Pacific in the 1960s and saw deployments in Africa, the Middle East and the former Yugoslavia from the 1970s to 1990s.

Brazil bought the 266-metre (873ft) aircraft carrier for $12 million in 2000. A fire that broke out on board the ship in 2005 accelerated the vessel’s decline.

Last year, Brazil authorised Turkish firm Sok Denizcilik to dismantle the Sao Paulo for scrap metal. But in August, just as a tugboat was about to tow it into the Mediterranean Sea, Turkish environmental authorities blocked the plan.

Brazil’s defence ministry said in a statement on Wednesday that the dismantling plan for the ship “represented an unprecedented attempt” by Brazil to safely dispose of the ship through “environmentally sound recycling”.

Brazil then brought the aircraft carrier back home but did not allow it into port, citing the “high risk” to the environment.

According to the defence ministry statement, the area selected for the sinking was identified by the Navy’s Hydrography Centre, which considered it the “safest” location as it was outside Brazil’s exclusive economic zone, environmental protection areas, free from documented submarine cable and was at a depth greater than 3,000 metres (9,840ft).

“In view of the facts presented and the increasing risk involved in towing, due to the deterioration of the hull’s buoyancy conditions and the inevitability of spontaneous/uncontrolled sinking, it is not possible to adopt any other course of action other than jettisoning the hull, through of the planned and controlled sinking,” the ministry said.

AL JAZEERA

Japan’s workers haven’t had a raise in 30 years. Companies are under pressure to pay up
 
Analysis by Michelle Toh and Emiko Jozuka, CNN
 Fri February 3, 2023

Hong Kong/TokyoCNN —

Hideya Tokiyoshi started his career as an English teacher in Tokyo about 30 years ago.

Since then, his salary has stayed pretty much the same. That’s why, three years ago, after giving up hopes for higher pay, the schoolteacher decided to start writing books.

“I feel lucky, as writing and selling books gives me an additional income stream. If not for that, I would’ve stayed stuck in the same wage loop,” Tokiyoshi, now 54, told CNN. “That’s why I was able to survive.”

Tokiyoshi is part of a generation of workers in Japan who have barely gotten a raise throughout their working lives. Now, as prices rise after decades of deflation,the world’s third largest economy is being forced to reckon with the major problem of falling living standards, and companies are facing intense political pressure to pay more.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is urging businesses to help workers keep up with higher living costs. Last month, he called on companies to hike pay at a level above inflation, with some already heeding the call.

Like other parts of the world, inflation in Japan has become a major headache. In the year to December, core consumer prices rose 4%. That’s still low by comparison with America or Europe, but represents a 41-year high for Japan, where people are more used to prices going backwards.

“In a country where you haven’t had nominal wage growth over 30 years, real wages are declining quite rapidly as a result [of inflation],” Stefan Angrick, a Tokyo-based senior economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNN.

Last month, Japan recorded its biggest drop in earnings, once inflation is taken into account, in nearly a decade.

A longstanding problem

In 2021, the average annual paycheck in Japan was $39,711, compared with $37,866 in 1991, according to data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

That means workers got a pay bump of less than 5%, compared to a rise of 34% in other Group of Seven economies, such as France and Germany, over the same period.


Experts have pointed to a series of reasons for the stagnant wages. For one, Japan has long grappled with the opposite of what it’s facing now: low prices. Deflation started in the mid-1990s, because of a strong yen — which pushed down the cost of imports — and the bursting of a domestic asset bubble.

“For the past 20 years, basically, there has been no change in consumer price inflation,” said Müge Adalet McGowan, senior economist for the Japan desk at the OECD.

A customer walking into a Tokyo supermarket on Dec. 23, 2022. Japan's core consumer prices rose 4% that month, a 41-year high.Richard A. Brooks/AFP/Getty Images

Until now, consumers wouldn’t have taken a hit to their wallets or felt the need to demand better pay, she added.

But as inflation rises, people are likely to start making “strong” complaints about the lack of raises, predicted Shintaro Yamaguchi, an economics professor at the University of Tokyo.
A changing job market

Experts say Japan’s wages have also suffered because it lags in another metric: its productivity rate.

The country’s output, measured by how much workers add to a country’s GDP per hour, is lower than the OECD average, and “probably the biggest reason” for flat wages, according to Yamaguchi.

“Generally, wages and productivity growth go hand-in-hand together,” McGowan said. “When there’s productivity growth, firms perform better and [when] they do better, they can offer higher wages.”

This giant economy wants its workers to get inflation-busting pay rises

She said Japan’s aging population was an additional issue because an older labor force tends to equate to lower productivity and wages. The way people are working is also changing.

In 2021, nearly 40% of Japan’s total workforce was employed part-time or worked irregular hours, up from roughly 20% in 1990, according to McGowan.

“As the share of these non-regular workers has gone up, of course the average wages also stay low, because they make less,” she said.

People crossing a street in the Ginza area of Tokyo in November. The shape of Japan's workforce is shifting, with more people working part-time.Yuichi Yamazaki/AFP/Getty Images
‘Lifetime’ employment

Japan’s unique work culture is contributing to wage stagnation, according to economists.

Many people work in the traditional “lifetime employment” system, where companies go to extraordinary lengths to keep workers on the payroll for life, Angrick said.

That means they’re often very cautious about raising wages in good times so that they have the means to protect their workers when times are tough.

“They don’t want to lay people off. So they need to have that buffer in order to be able to keep them on the payroll when a crisis hits,” he said.

Japan's job-for-life culture has survived war, earthquakes and now a pandemic

Its seniority-based pay system, where workers are paid based on their rank and length of service rather than performance, lowers incentives for people to change jobs, which in other countries generally helps push up wages, according to McGowan.

“The biggest issue in Japan’s labor market is the stubborn insistence on pay by seniority,” Jesper Koll, a prominent Japan strategist and investor, previously told CNN. “If genuine merit-based pay were introduced, there would be much more job switching and career climbing.”
Pressure on businesses

Last month, Kishida warned the economy was at stake, saying Japan risked falling into stagflation if wage rises continued to fall behind price increases. The term refers to a period of high inflation and stagnant economic growth.

Raising wages by 3% or more a year was already a core goal of Kishida’s administration. Now, the prime minister wants to take another step further, with plans to create a more formalized system.

Asked for details, a government spokesperson told CNN that new “comprehensive economic measures will include expanded support for wage increases, integrated with an improvement in productivity.”

Authorities plan to roll out guidelines for companies by June, said a representative from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.

Hideya Tokiyoshi, a teacher in Japan, told CNN he had barely seen his salary go up over the last 30 years.

Courtesy Hideya Tokiyoshi

Meanwhile, the country’s largest labor group, the Japanese Trade Union Confederation or Rengo, is now demanding wage increases of 5% at this year’s talks with the management of various companies. The annual negotiations kick off this month.

In a statement, Rengo said it was making the push because workers were making “inferior wages on a global scale,” and needed help with rising prices.

The owner of Uniqlo is boosting pay for Japan employees by up to 40% as inflation bites

Some companies have already acted. Fast Retailing (FRCOF), the company behind Uniqlo and Theory, announced last month that it would boost salaries in Japan by up to 40%, acknowledging that compensation had “remained low” in the country in recent years.

While inflation was a factor, the company wanted to align “with global standards, to be able to increase our competitiveness,” a Fast Retailing spokesperson told CNN.

According to a Reuters poll released last month, more than half of the country’s big firms are planning to raise wages this year.

Suntory, one of Japan’s biggest beverage makers, may be one of them.

Customers browsing for vegetables at a supermarket in Tokyo in January. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is urging businesses to hike pay and help workers keep up with the higher costs of living.Yuichi Yamazaki/AFP/Getty Images

CEO Takeshi Niinami is weighing a 6% raise for its Japanese workforce of approximately 7,000 people, according to a spokesperson, adding that it was subject to negotiation with a union.

The news may prompt other businesses to follow suit.

“If some of the biggest companies in Japan raise wages, many other firms will follow,” if only to stay competitive, said Yamaguchi. “Many firms look at what other firms do.”

Disney World union members reject contract offer

By Chris Isidore and Vanessa Yurkevich, CNN
Fri February 3, 2023


New YorkCNN —

Unionized workers at Disney World have rejected a contract proposal from the company that would have given them at least a $1 an hour raise each year over the five-year life of the rejected offer.

The 32,000 Disney employees, members of six different unions, had been urged by their unions’ leadership to vote no. More than 14,000 votes were cast and 96% voted no.

“I think the workers at Disney World have sent a loud message that $1 is not enough. The company need to provide a meaningful wage increase that addresses the economic issues that workers are facing,” said Matt Hollis, president of the Service Trades Council Union, the collection of unions that are negotiating with Disney management.

Union negotiators are demanding an immediate $3 an hour raise, which would be about a 20% pay hike for the 75% of workers now earning $15 an hour. The union and rank-and-file members say workers wouldn’t be able to afford to live in central Florida under the company’s offer.

The company, which had described its rejected contract proposal as a “very strong offer,” said that 46% of cast members would have gotten more than a $1-an-hour raise in the contract’s first year, and that the majority of employees would have received raises totaling 33% to 46% during the life of the contract. Retroactive pay increases back the October 1 expiration of the previous contract would have resulted in lump sum payments of about $700 per employee.

“We are disappointed that those increases are now delayed,” said Andrea Finger, a spokesperson for Disney.

Hollis said that management has agreed to return to the negotiation table, though no date for talks has been set. Unions have represented workers at Disney World since soon after the park’s 1971 opening, but employees have never gone on strike, and the unions have yet to set a strike deadline or schedule a strike vote.

Those working under this contract, all of them full-time employees, represent more than 40% of all workers at Disney World. Currently, the park has 75,000 cast members, as the company refers to its employees, including full-time and part-time, hourly and salaried staff. It is comparable to Disney World’s pre-pandemic employment levels.

Negotiations on a new union contract had been ongoing since August.

The unions said those workers who would have gotten more than a $1 an hour pay increase under the offer are in jobs where Disney is having trouble filling openings and retaining workers. And they say with rising rents and other costs in the Orlando area, a $1 an hour increase isn’t sufficient.

Rent for a typical apartment in the Orlando area costs about $1,800 per month according to Realtor.com, the second-fastest pace of increase of any US market.

Disney reported that its parks, experiences and products unit, which includes Disney World and other park locations worldwide, had revenue of $7.4 billion and operating income of $1.5 billion in fiscal year 2022, which ran through October 1. The first six months of that fiscal year were affected by surging Covid cases.



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Revenue was up 36% and profits more than doubled from the previous fiscal year. And both revenue and operating profits are above what the company posted in fiscal year 2019, before the pandemic, with a 12% rise in revenue and a 10% gain in earnings.

Disney is due to report financial results for the final three months of 2022 on Wednesday, with analysts surveyed by Refinitiv forecasting that revenue will be up 7% from a year earlier, but earnings will be down 27%.

Arctic blast barrels into US Northeast, threatening record lows

A powerful arctic blast swept into the US Northeast on Friday, threatening to push temperatures to record lows in many spots, including New Hampshire's Mount Washington.


People bundle up in bitterly cold temperatures and high winds in Manhattan 

as deep cold spread across the northeast United States. (Photo: Reuters)



Reuters
Worcester,

UPDATED: Feb 4, 2023 

A powerful arctic blast swept into the US Northeast on Friday, threatening to push temperatures to record lows in many spots, including New Hampshire's Mount Washington, where the wind chill could drop to -110 degrees Fahrenheit (-79 Celsius), forecasters said.

A National Weather Service (NWS) advisory said the mass of frigid air would keep temperatures at life-endangering levels through Saturday, warning of "extremely dangerous" conditions from the "short-lived blast."

Boston and Worcester, the two largest cities in New England, were among the school districts closed on Friday over concerns about the risk of hypothermia and frostbite as children waited for buses or walked to school.

Boston Mayor Michelle Wu declared a state of emergency through Sunday and opened warming centres to help the city's more than 650,000 residents cope with what the NWS has warned could shape up to be a "once-in-a-generation" cold front.

The bitter cold forecast forced a rare closing of a floating museum that presents a daily re-enactment of the 1773 Boston Tea Party when a band of colonists disguised as Native Americans tossed crates of tea taxed by the king into the harbour.

"It's too cold for that, we're closed," a receptionist at the museum said on Friday.

Early on Friday, the core of the cold air mass, driven from Arctic Canada into the United States by high-altitude air currents, was centred over the U.S. Plains, said weather service forecaster Bob Oravec. International Falls, Minnesota, was the coldest spot as of 7 a.m., with temperatures hovering around -36 F (-38 C). Dry air meant snowfall would be limited, he said.

"It's moving into the Northeast" and temperatures will drop throughout the day on Friday, he said. "That's the biggest story of the day."

Heavy snow warning: Exact date forecasters say PERFECT STORM fuelled by 200MPH jet stream could bring 'wall of snow' to UK


Nathan Rao

WEATHER CORRESPONDENT
PUBLISHED Friday 03 February 2023 -

AN ‘explosive’ battle between cyclonic storm systems spanning the Atlantic astride a furious jet stream threatens to plunge Britain into a -15C easterly freeze.

A massive low-pressure ‘beast’ churning off the east coast of America is about to supercharge the jet helping it strengthen another storm thousands of miles away over Greece.

All three elements could join forces later next week to steer a plume of sub-zero air across Eastern Europe towards Britain, experts say.

If it does, the UK will be facing freezing temperatures, howling Russian winds and heavy snow possibly until the end of February.

Weather models are yet to agree on a definitive outlook, although forecasters have sounded early alarm bells to get winter coats at the ready, claiming the snow could arrive as soon as next Saturday (February 11).

Exacta Weather’s James Madden said: “Some computer models are now favouring a bitter easterly blast later next week, and this could bring the risk of widespread snow.

“This is expected ahead of next weekend and if it happens, temperatures will plunge across the country.

“Snowfall in parts could bring the risk of disruption, and depending on the severity of this blast, this could be on a scale or greater than anything we have seen so far this winter.

“We could see temperatures dipping to -10C or even -15C in some urban regions in a cold spell that could hold out for seven to 10 days.”

Heavy snow on a 'different scale' could hit the UK from the end of next week, forecasters warn Danny Lawson

A freezing blast hitting the US will clash with tropical air wafting up from the Gulf of Mexico to supercharge the jet stream, experts say. Synoptic forecasting models show the core of the jet - the jet streak - whipping up speeds of 200mph as swoops across the tip of Britain.

This will have a knock-on effect on weather patterns and air flow across the Atlantic and further east which could send temperatures plummeting.

Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern said: “A huge area of cold air across North America is coming up against milder air to the south, and we are getting a powerful jet stream which is helping to deepen areas of low pressure.

“An area of low pressure deepens explosively and becomes a real beast coming out of North America, and although that’s deepened by the jet stream, the size of that low affects the shape of the jet stream and helps to push its energy southwards and northwards amplifying the jet stream.

“This will have a knock-on impact on the shape of the jet steam coming over the UK and helping to develop an area of low pressure coming across Greece.”

Computer models areas yet undecided on a definitive forecast for next week, flipping between a bitter cold easterly blast and a stormier but milder assault from the west.

American synoptic systems favour colder weather setting in, while UK Met Office charts suggest wetter milder conditions. Meteorologists are watching this interaction to work out how cold it gets next week, and which parts of the UK could be most at risk.

McGivern said: “That will ultimately decide how much of the cold air stays to the east of the UK and how much it influences the UK itself.

“What we think is that there is an 85-per cent chance that next week will start off colder and drier in the south but milder with some rain in the north.

“Then gradually through next week westerlies will sink south brining changeable but milder air across the UK. But there is a 15-per cent chance that it will turn very cold especially across the south and east with snow.”

If this happened, it would mean a ‘slow return’ to milder conditions through the start of spring, he added.

While Britons are warned to have winter coats and scarves on standby, experts have played down fears of a ‘proper beast from the east’.

Widespread snowfall could hit northern Britain, spreading to the south and east Netweather

The last one struck in February 2018 when sub-zero temperatures engulfed Britain while swathes of the country were buried under inches of snow.

It was triggered by a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) above the North Pole, causing Polar air to spill over Europe as bitter winds swept in from the East.

While meteorologists have in the past week confirmed the onset of an SSW event this year, they say it is unlikely to drive a similar cold snap.

The jet stream will instead meander over the Atlantic into Scandinavia and Europe, although this could bring freezing conditions to the UK.

Jim Dale, meteorologist for British Weather Services, said: “The jet stream is coming over Iceland, Norway and Europe and this will help low pressure to form over Greece.

“This is the power battle, and there is about a 20-per cent chance that we could get something colder at the end of next week as a result.

Snow warning: Temperatures are set to plunge across the UK ahead of next weekend WX Charts

“This is what is being referred to as the Beast from the East, although I think a full beast is unlikely, certainly before the last 10 days of the month.

“However, there is a chance that we will see something colder by the end of the week, and this is something that we are going to be keeping our eyes on.”

Weather models show a wall of snow ploughing across Britain ahead of next weekend with up to eight inches possible over Scotland.

South-eastern Britain will be in the firing line for the first taste of the cold if it arrives, according to the Met Office.

A spokesman said: “It looks like we will start to see a change from the current mild conditions to a colder spell from the middle of next week, especially for parts of the south and east of England.

“High pressure is expected to build and settle over or near to the south of the UK allowing colder air from continental Europe to cross the country.”

Heavy snow warning: New weather chart shows Britain to be blanketed for ELEVEN DAYS this month - latest maps

Brits have been warned to brace for a cold snap as the UK is plunged into a deep freeze


UK weather forecast: Temperatures plunge to MINUS TEN as 'North Pole donut' of ferocious winds smashes into Britain

The Beast from the East and Big Freeze were both caused by the same phenomenon

Bolsonaro Takes Post-Presidency Florida Tour to a Trump Resort

Felipe Marques, Bloomberg News

Jair Bolsonaro speaks during a Turning Point USA ‘Power of The People’ event in Miami, on Feb. 3. , Photographer: Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is again marshaling supporters in Florida, saying he’s puzzled that he lost last fall’s election and giving no indication that he intends to leave the US.

For his second rally this week, he ended up at a very symbolic setting: The Trump National Doral Miami resort, a deluxe enclave northwest of Miami belonging to the hotel chain of the former American president, a close ally. 

“I can’t understand why Brazil turned left,” Bolsonaro said at the Friday event, referring to his defeat by Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, to whom he narrowly lost the runoff vote in October. He added that he’s not optimistic about the Brazilian economy under his successor, given Lula’s initial measures.

While Bolsonaro, 67, refrained from fiery attacks on Lula and other opponents, he also didn’t give any hint that he intends to end his self-imposed exile in Florida, where he has been living since late December after refusing to take part in handing power to Lula. 

His presence in the US has created a diplomatic dilemma for the Biden administration, which is preparing to welcome Lula to the White House next week. Back home, the former president faces multiple investigations, including over whether he had any connection to the Jan. 8 riot in the capital Brasilia by supporters who refused to accept his election loss.

Read More: Bolsonaro Resurfaces in Orlando, Vowing to Stay in Politics

Friday’s event, attended mostly by Brazilians, was organized by Turning Point USA, a conservative advocacy group for young people. Turning Point has also organized rallies for Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Trump himself didn’t attend the Doral rally and there’s no indication that he has met with Bolsonaro in Florida.

Turning Point did not pay Bolsonaro or provide other support, according to Andrew Kolvet, a spokesman for the organization. He said the event was an opportunity to host an “intriguing political figure at an intriguing political time” who shares certain political affinities with Turning Point.

On Tuesday in Orlando, Florida, Bolsonaro spoke to his first public gathering since arriving in the US, saying he intended “to remain active in Brazilian politics.”

--With assistance from Mark Niquette.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Missouri Jewish leaders advocate for trans rights at state legislature

Eight bills were heard that would restrict trans children from participating in sports that align with their gender identity and limit their access to specialized medical care.

By JACKIE HAJDENBERG/JTA
Published: FEBRUARY 4, 2023 

“Hi, my name is Dan. I’m 11 years old and I like doing magic and circus skills, especially unicycling. I’m here today to testify against House Bill 170, 183, and 337,” a young voice said into the microphone.

“I really like to play sports with my friends, although honestly I’m not very good at it,” he added. “I’d really like the chance to play.”

Dan — a transgender boy whose parents asked that his last name not be used — was the youngest person to testify at the Missouri State House last week in opposition to eight bills heard in the chamber that would restrict trans children from participating in sports that align with their gender identity and limit their access to specialized medical care.

He was also part of a delegation of Missouri’s Jewish community members, alongside a few Christian clergy, that has been consistently appearing at the state Capitol to advocate for trans rights in response to a slew of bills that activists say violate their religious freedoms and cause significant harm to the LGBTQ community.

“Those are the bills that criminalize treating your child as every medical and psychological mainstream organization recommends.”Daniel Bogard, rabbi at Central Reform Congregation in St. Louis

Daniel Bogard, the rabbi at Central Reform Congregation in St. Louis and the parent of a trans child, was at the State House Jan. 24 and again on Feb. 1 to support those testifying against the bills and to lobby lawmakers against them. He is a frequent visitor to Jefferson City as a trans rights activist, saying the possibility of restrictions on medical care are what scare him the most. One piece of legislation would bar physicians and health care professionals from providing gender affirmation procedures to anyone under 18. It would also deny access to medication like puberty blockers, which are administered to delay the onset of puberty.

The Transgender Pride Flag flies on the Foreign Office building in London on Transgender Day of Remembrance, 20 November 2017. (credit: FOREIGN COMMONWEALTH & DEVELOPMENT OFFICE)

Proponents' motives

“What we want to do is we want to protect kids from unnecessary and harmful surgeries and medications,” said Brad Hudson, a Republican representative and one of the sponsors of the bill. “I say harmful because giving kids puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and even transgender surgery violates the first duty of medicine, do no harm.” (The Transgender Center at St. Louis Children’s Hospital and other providers say they are generally considered safe to use.)

Hudson also identified himself in his testimony that he is a Christian pastor, and said that his worldview is one in which human beings are created “in the image and likeness of their Creator.”

Opposition to the legislation

“Those are the bills that criminalize treating your child as every medical and psychological mainstream organization recommends,” Bogard countered. “And that means parents are left with a choice of not giving these kids the sorts of treatment and care that are best practice according to everything that we know, or fleeing the state, or staying and risking some sort of criminal charge. The one that terrifies me is the idea of DSS [Department of Social Services] agents showing up to my door to take my kid away.”


Bogard, who has been going to the state Capitol for five years now, says the experience of being back at the State Legislature has been simultaneously “awful and affirming.”


“What’s remarkable is you go in and two-thirds of the people who are sponsoring these bills or testifying in favor of these bills are using overtly Christian theological language when they’re talking about the why,” he explained. “And then you look around and the people who are showing up to protect trans kids are Jews.”


“I’m just so proud of our Jewish community, the way we have shown up around this issue here in Missouri,” Bogard said, remarking on the decades-long history of Jewish-led LGBTQ advocacy in the state. (The founder of the statewide LGBTQ advocacy group PROMO, which is not itself a Jewish group, was founded by Rabbi Susan Talve, one of the founding members of Bogard’s synagogue. Shira Berkowitz, a Jewish summer camp friend of Bogard’s, is the senior director of public policy and advocacy at the organization, and last year, Bogard and Berkowitz launched a summer camp for trans kids.)


The new principal of Saul Mirowitz Jewish Community School, Raquel Scharf-Anderson, made the two-hour drive early on Jan. 24 to testify on behalf of her students.


“I make all of my decisions in the best interest of children,” Scharf-Anderson told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency. “Anything that would impact the students in my school, I want them to see me standing with them.”


The sports bills in particular, she said, would impact trans students at private schools, like Mirowitz.


Over the course of the Jan. 24 hearing, Rachel Aguirre, a special education teacher who ran unsuccessfully for State Senate in the Republican primary in 2022, argued that the government was “founded upon the word of God,” and therefore athletes should only play on teams whose gender matches the sex they were assigned at birth. Nancy Delcour, another witness testifying in favor of the bill, also cited the biblical principle that humankind was created in God’s image, and an attempt to change that is the work of Satan.





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Before the nine-hour long hearing was over, another interpretation of the principle of “the image of God” was explored on the hearing room floor.


“As a Jew, this is something that speaks to me quite a bit. We call it ‘b’tzelem Elokim’ — ‘created in the image of God,’ literally,” said Russel Neiss, a Jewish educator and technologist and the parent of a trans child. “But the way we understand this is that God bestows a special honor onto humans that requires that we need to be treated with dignity and we need to treat others with dignity.”


Maharat Rori Picker Neiss, the executive director of the Jewish Community Relations Council of St. Louis, a rabbi, and the wife of Russel Neiss, also testified against the bills and in support of their child.


“Sitting here for the past two hours has been one of the most painful things that I’ve ever had to do as a mother and we’ve been doing this for four years,” she said. Picker-Neiss stayed home from the Jan. 31 Senate hearing for the first time in four years — but was back at the Capitol fighting for her child’s rights by the next day.


Next week, as another bill limiting what can be said about trans identity in schools makes its way through the Missouri chambers, Scharf-Anderson says school leadership will return to the state Capitol.


“We know that children imitate what we do, and we want to make sure that we’re being good role models for them,” she said. “And we will continue to stand by the children that we need to support who are part of our school and in our broader community.”

Healing generational trauma of Japanese Americans through art


Na Omi Judy Shintani, destructed kimono
CREDIT: CORSETRY OF WASHINGTON STATE HISTORY MUSEUM

FEB 03, 2023 at 6:49 PM

BY Natalie Akane Newcomb

This month marks the 81st anniversary of Executive Order 9066, the World War II order that forcibly removed Japanese Americans on the West Coast and placed them into camps. Many of those who were incarcerated held American citizenship.

The Washington State History Museum in Tacoma is hosting a touring exhibit, "Resilience—A Sansei Sense of Legacy." The exhibit showcases artwork from eight "sansei," third-generation Japanese American artists.

One of the artists is Na Omi Judy Shintani. Eight of her family members were incarcerated in the camps.

Her series of artwork is called "deconstructed kimonos." Kimonos are traditional Japanese clothing. Shintani altered the kimono by cutting out patterns on the garments. Then she created ceramic alters that hold the cut out pieces.

Shintani said altering the kimonos "expresses my loss of connection to my culture. I think that loss has to do with assimilation."

Shintani said many "nisei," second-generation Japanese Americans, after leaving camp wanted their children to be seen as Americans. This is why many parents didn't teach children their mother tongue, Japanese.

The deconstructing of kimonos was Shintani's way of "expressing anger and sorrow of losing our culture, because of a feeling, that we were seen as less American due to being imprisoned."

Shintani said the "symbol of the kimono is very strong," and the unaltered kimonos were in " beautiful forms."

"I think some people find my expression in this way a bit shocking," Shintani said.

Mary Mikel Stump, director of exhibitions at the Washington State Historical exhibit, invited the exhibit to the museum. She says this exhibition is special because "sansei" in many cases will be the last generation to have a direct relationship to the experiences in the camps.

Stump said many "sansei" also experience generational trauma. It's passed down through a Japanese concept called "gaman," which means patience.

"It's the idea of not talking about it and maintaining grace through silence," Stump said.

She said the art work in the exhibit is a space for artists to heal from multi-generational trauma.

"Resilience—A Sansei Sense of Legacy" will be at the Washington State History Museum in Tacoma Feb. 4 through July 7. Tickets can be purchased online or at the museum.

Asian-American tragedy: California shootings highlight social alienation alongside US gun culture

Recent attacks in which Asian-Americans were both victims and suspects have elicited a special pain and a search for answers within the community

‘Negative exposure to American culture’ and rise in gun-buying over anti-Asian violence pose challenges, observers say

Bochen Han
+ myNEWS
Published:4 Feb, 2023

People gather at a vigil in Half Moon Bay, California, on January 27, days after a mass shooting took place at two farms in the community. Photo: San Francisco Chronicle via AP

“Why would Chinese people ever shoot Chinese people?”

That was how Duan Fuxiang, 89, of Manitoba, Canada, reacted when her granddaughter informed her of the recent mass shootings in California. The two tragedies coincided with Lunar New Year, a two-week festival ending this weekend and normally a time of celebration in Chinese and other Asian communities.

The first one, on January 21, took place at a dance studio in the predominantly ethnic Asian city of Monterey Park, where 11 victims, all of Asian descent, died. The second, less than 48 hours later and some 400 miles away in Half Moon Bay, happened at two mushroom farms filled with Chinese and Mexican workers.

Both suspected gunmen were Chinese immigrants. Both were over 65.

Americans are no strangers to mass shootings, and violence and discrimination against Asian-Americans have skyrocketed since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

But multiple attacks in which Asian-Americans were both victims and suspects – and where the accused are elderly men – have elicited both a special kind of pain and a search for answers within the Asian-American community.

The superficial similarities in the two suspects’ backgrounds led to a comparison with David Chou, a 68-year-old Chinese-American who opened fire at a Taiwanese church in Laguna Woods, California, less than a year ago.

Two marks a coincidence, three signifies a pattern, as popular thinking goes. But Min Zhou, a professor of sociology and Asian-American studies at UCLA, cautioned against concluding that Asian elders committing violence in the US was a trend.

Instead, a “negative exposure to American culture” or “bad assimilation” was noteworthy, she said, referring specifically to American gun culture.

Many observers agree that what has transpired bears the traits of a uniquely American story: immigrants navigating a new world where social alienation and the world’s largest supply of privately owned guns make it all too easy for rage and despair to manifest as mass violence.

“There are angry, dislocated, disenfranchised people everywhere in the world,” said Eileen Chow, an associate professor in Chinese and Japanese cultural studies and founding member of the Asian-American and diaspora studies programme at Duke University.

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Yet “in the US, a 72-year-old can take out 20-some people in 10 seconds of shooting”, Chow said.

California has some of America’s strictest gun laws, but experts have said there are too many firearms in the country to completely prevent gun violence in any given state. An estimated 393 million guns are privately owned across the US, whose population totals about 333 million people.

Zhao Chunli, 66, the suspected gunman in Half Moon Bay, reportedly told investigators that workplace disputes spurred his actions. Huu Can Tran, the 72-year-old shooting suspect in Monterey Park, had accused his family of theft, fraud and attempting to poison him.

In all, 20 people were shot in Monterey Park, 11 of whom lost their lives. Seven people were killed in Half Moon Bay, with an additional person injured.

Chow said surprise over Asian-on-Asian violence was misplaced. Such violence was “not so uncommon”, and mass shootings might happen in China if people there had greater access to guns, she added.

While Asian-Americans have historically purchased the fewest guns compared to other demographic groups in the US, according to a 2021 survey by Pew Research Centre, they have been buying more firearms in the last few years.

Chow attributed the rise in gun-buying within the community partly to media coverage of anti-Asian violence.

“Why do people buy guns? Because they were reading over and over again that they’re being attacked.”

Scholars like Sylvia Chan Malik, an associate professor of women, gender, and sexuality studies at Rutgers University, have highlighted Chinese elders as particularly vulnerable to radicalisation given the high levels of misinformation in some Chinese media outlets and often limited access to English-language alternatives.

Meanwhile, Stop AAPI Hate, a San Francisco-based non-profit organisation formed in the wake of increased violence against Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders at the pandemic’s outset, recorded almost 11,500 hate incidents towards the community between March 19, 2020 and March 31, 2022.

Duan’s son, Wang Guqi, 62, lives in Charlotte, North Carolina, and has been closely following the shootings in California and their aftermath, discussing them with his fellow Chinese-Americans.

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As his feelings of insecurity spiked in recent years, Wang considered buying a gun and even attended a gun exhibition. He ultimately decided against it because he lacked sufficient time to learn how to use one.

Wang, originally from Jiangxi province, believed his fellow elders did not learn how to “forgive” others because they spent their formative years in the midst of China’s Cultural Revolution, which lasted from 1966 to 1976.

By Wang’s account, amid the “class struggle” in which they grew up, employees were pitted against employers, and violence was considered an appropriate option to resolve conflict.

When they come to the US, it can be difficult to shed those past ways because they do not fully assimilate into mainstream American society, Wang said. He was not surprised that the gunmen targeted members from their own community, noting “Chinese people are surrounded by other Chinese people”.

Nor did Wang believe the suspects harboured any particular affinity for guns. The salient point was gun access, he said. “They use whatever they are familiar with to address their issues.”

A woman pays her respects at a memorial for 11 people who died in a mass shooting in Monterey Park, California, on January 26. Photo: Los Angeles Times/TNS

Zhou of UCLA said a lack of community support likely contributed to the circumstances leading to the two tragedies. Many immigrants, especially elders, do not know how to deal with their mental health issues.

“Normal social networks are disrupted through migration,” she added. “When people repeatedly face discrimination, stereotyping and if they lack support in their community, things could go bad”.

Asian-American elders experience significantly lower life satisfaction and receive less emotional support than their peers of other racial backgrounds, according to a 2022 study based on 2018 data published in the Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine.

The Half Moon Bay shooting stood out to Chow because “these are all working elders … I was like, ‘wow, we really have immigrants working into their old age for survival’”.

Jeanie Chang, chair of the board of the Asian Mental Health Collective, said Asian elders are very new to mental health conversations, even though the stigma around mental health has gradually lifted for younger Asian-Americans.

“In the whole life cycle, they’re all about giving, giving their wisdom, extending their own knowledge of life,” Chang said of many Asian elders’ state of mind. “They’re not there to necessarily receive it.”

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Confucian values could also discourage them from talking about conflict for the sake of maintaining peace, she added.

The shootings cast a shadow over Lunar New Year celebrations that began on January 22 and end on Sunday. Some observers have said the annual holiday could also have been a trigger for the shootings.

Chang, who is a licensed family therapist, noted that her consultations and appointments surge in number during holidays, which she said were full of joy yet also “extremely stressful”.

Chow of Duke said the shootings were “meant to inflict maximum damage”.

“Maximum damage is when people are happiest and at a place when they are happiest,” she said.

But ultimately, no single factor could explain these attacks, Chow believed. “It’s just structural,” she said. “Frankly this is an American phenomenon, an American story.”

From China to Big Sky: The Balloon That Unnerved the White House

Peter Martin, Jenny Leonard and Jennifer Jacobs, Bloomberg News

Antony Blinken Photographer: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA/Bloomberg , Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- Star gazing is nothing unusual in Montana, where skies go on forever. But as Chase Doak left work on a Wednesday and looked up on a cold winter day he saw a mysterious round white object that was clearly neither the moon or a star. 

He began to film something that could come straight out of a movie where science fiction meets the Wild West. Within 48 hours the strange thing that went on to confound the residents of Billings was revealed to be a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon. 

“Not gonna lie,” tweeted Doak as his video went viral. “First, I thought this was a #ufo. Then, I thought it was @elonmusk in a Wizard of Oz cosplay scenario. But it was just a run-of-the mill Chinese spy balloon!”

Its journey across the ocean has gripped the world’s attention and forced the top US diplomat to cancel his trip to Beijing. Its fate, as it wafts 10 miles above ground, remains uncertain — as do the delicate relations between two superpowers grasping for ways to deescalate tensions and get talks back on track.

This account of how a balloon burst diplomacy just as Secretary of State Antony Blinken was set to travel to China and meet with President Xi Jinping is based on conversations with several officials briefed on the matter who asked to stay anonymous to discuss intelligence matters.

As it turns out, US authorities were aware the unidentified object that had entered American airspace on Jan. 28, that had then left and re-entered over North Idaho on Tuesday. But with such a high-profile trip at stake, keeping it on the down-low was key.

By the time the thing became visible in Montana, President Joe Biden had already been briefed and the White House was scrambling to decide whether to blast it from the sky.

The gravity of the situation was only exacerbated by Montana being home to Malmstrom Air Force Base, which houses a large portion of the US’s Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missiles. 

The Biden administration knew it had to exercise extreme caution especially in what was a heated political environment ahead of 2024 elections, with Republicans agitating on which party could strike a harder or tougher line on China.

As the balloon continued to hover over the Big Sky state on Wednesday, Biden huddled with his national security team to receive a detailed briefing on the balloon. The President argued for shooting the object down, but was urged against doing so by his most senior military advisors. 

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark A. Milley insisted that such a move would put civilians at risk, people familiar with the discussions said.

The President ultimately decided to let the balloon continue on its way as the US sought answers from the Chinese embassy in Washington, but they struggled to obtain satisfactory responses. US officials said they were baffled by China, which itself appeared to be caught off-guard by the bizarre incident. 

For now, the White House opted not to inform the American public. Events, however, soon forced Biden’s hand. 

On Thursday afternoon, the Billings Gazette, a local Montana paper, published a photo of the balloon – meaning it was only a matter of time until national media would pick up on the report and the Biden administration would have to face questions. 

The pace of discussions in the White House quickened. 

In a call starting at 5:15pm on Thursday, the administration finally went public. That spurred a rush to brief lawmakers on Capitol Hill. The Biden administration will hold a briefing next week for the “Gang of Eight,” a group of lawmakers including the chairs and ranking members of the House and Senate intelligence committees. 

In an effort to keep things calm, administration officials stressed this was not the first such incident and that similar activities had been observed over the past several years, including during the prior administration.

The Pentagon’s announcement prompted an outcry from Republicans. Former President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social website to “shoot down the balloon. ” Others, from former Secretary of State Michael Pompeo to Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, framed the decision not to shoot down the balloon as a sign of weakness by Biden. 

The biggest question was how would China respond to all the furore that was unfolding at a rapid pace as Asia was asleep.

After earlier calling on the US to refrain from “hyping” the incident, China finally commented on the balloon directly in a statement Friday morning Washington time, attributing it to a “force majeure” for which it was not responsible. 

China said the balloon blew off course and entered US airspace by accident, adding that it is “regretful” over the incident and that the balloon’s purpose was climate research. 

Administration officials are privately dismissive of Beijing’s explanation, as are former American intelligence analysts. The official Chinese explanation mirrored a well-worn excuse for aerial espionage. 

“I do not know of anyone who constructs a meteorological balloon the size of three school buses,” said Dennis Wilder, the Central Intelligence Agency’s former deputy assistant director for East Asia and the Pacific.

US officials, who had spent hours debating whether Blinken should scrap a long-planned trip to Beijing, finally felt they had no choice but to postpone the first high-level US visit to China in five years. A delay was not a cancellation. It sent a signal that the US had no desire to escalate matters.

The sentiment among those in the room was that the trip wasn’t worth the potential domestic political costs of going, given that Blinken’s talks in China were not expected to yield much in the first place. 

Biden’s team worried that the incident would serve as more fodder for Republicans who believed the administration is weak on China, especially if the balloon crashed and hurt someone while Blinken was in Beijing. 

“A split screen of a spy satellite over the United States when Secretary Blinken lands in Beijing would not have been tenable,” said Ryan Hass, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former Director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia on the National Security Council. 

Meanwhile, the balloon continued its voyage eastward across the continental US, heading toward Washington. “The balloon is not going away,” said Wilder, the former CIA officer. 

The problem, he said, is that “China has no way to take it back so it will drift over the continental US for an unknown time frame before coming down.”

Until then, Americans will keep taking pictures of it and Biden will have to keep defending the decision not to just shoot it down. 

--With assistance from Iain Marlow, Brian Platt and Lindsey Rupp.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

China's balloon over the U.S. seen as bold

 but clumsy espionage tactic

By Steve Holland, Michael Martina and David Brunnstrom

U.S. and Chinese flags are seen in this illustration taken, January 30, 2023. 

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

WASHINGTON, Feb 3 (Reuters) - China's flight of a suspected surveillance balloon over the United States appears to mark a more aggressive - albeit puzzling - espionage tactic than relying on satellites and the theft of industrial and defense secrets, security experts said.

Both the United States and China have for decades used surveillance satellites to keep an eye on each other from the air. But China's recent balloons - a White House official said this week's episode was not the first - have some in Washington scratching their heads.

"In a way, it's more amateurish," said former White House national security adviser John Bolton. "Do the cameras in their satellites not have high enough resolution that they have to send a balloon over?"

The uproar over the balloon comes as China has been building up its military capabilities and challenging America's military presence in the Pacific. The United States also believes Beijing routinely seeks to capture proprietary information and knowledge from U.S. companies.

China said the balloon was for civilian meteorological and scientific purposes that strayed into U.S. airspace, on Saturday accusing U.S. politicians and media of taking advantage of the situation to discredit China. It has previously rebuffed accusations of espionage and said the United States holds a Cold War mentality and hypes up the 'China threat.'

The balloon discovered this week appeared deliberately provocative, said Dean Cheng, senior advisor to the China program at the U.S. Institute of Peace.

"This is a way to test how does the other side respond, not in a military sense. But politically, what do you do about it? Do you keep it quiet? If there have been in fact many and this is not the first time, then it raises an interesting question. What happened to the previous ones? Did we shoot them down?” he said.

Mike Rounds, a Republican member of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, told Fox News it would be good to recover the balloon to see "if it was designed to actually collect data or if it was designed to test our response capabilities."

Andrew Antonio, co-founder of high-altitude balloon startup Urban Sky, said the wind currents high-altitude balloons depend on for steering on long-distance trips were least favorable in the winter, suggesting China's intentions might not have been be to target any specific location in the United States.

"Specifically targeting a certain military base with that balloon from a launch in China, in January or February, in the northern hemisphere, is very difficult to do, if not impossible," Antonio said, speculating that the balloon's venture into U.S. airspace could have been the result of a failed experiment, or some failure in its self-termination system.

Adding to the questions on Friday night, a Pentagon statement said another Chinese balloon was observed over Latin America.

FBI Director Christopher Wray said in 2020 that the greatest long-term threat to U.S. information and intellectual property was "the counterintelligence and economic espionage threat from China."

China's alleged clamor for American trade secrets has been so sweeping that the FBI estimated last October that it was opening a new Chinese counter-intelligence operation every 12 hours.

A more common spying tactic by China in recent decades, experts say, has been to use graduate students and other individuals with ties to China to gain access to sensitive materials by studying at research universities, working at technology companies or hacking into their computer networks.

"The problem with China is far more in the academic, scientific world," said Mark Zaid, a Washington lawyer who is involved in various national security cases.

"There is no doubt that that dynamic is changing and the Chinese are becoming more aggressive for whatever reason."

The United States has been also been accused of spying by China.

Before the use of spy satellites, the United States used high-altitude aircraft that could not easily be shot down and flew them over the Soviet Union, China and Cuba, for example.

U.S.-China relations plunged in April 2001 when a U.S. Navy EP-3E signals intelligence aircraft collided with a Chinese fighter jet in mid-air over the South China Sea about 70 miles away from China's Hainan province.

In 2009, the Pentagon said five Chinese ships including a naval vessel harassed U.S. Navy ship the USNS Impeccable, an unarmed ocean surveillance vessel, in international waters off Hainan. China said the U.S. ship was carrying out an illegal survey off the island province.

Reporting by Steve Holland, Michael Martina, David Brunnstrom and Joey Roulette; Editing by Heather Timmons, Don Durfee, Edwina Gibbs and Lincoln Feast.