The Fear Of Mass Unemployment Due To Artificial Intelligence And Robotics Is Unfounded – OpEd


March 18, 2023
By MISES
By Raushan Gross*

People are arguing over whether artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics will eliminate human employment. People seem to have an all-or-nothing belief that either the use of technology in the workplace will destroy human employment and purpose or it won’t affect it at all. The replacement of human jobs with robotics and AI is known as “technological unemployment.”

Although robotics can turn materials into economic goods in a fraction of the time it would take a human, in some cases using minimal human energy, some claim that AI and robotics will actually bring about increasing human employment. According to a 2020 Forbes projection, AI and robotics will be a strong creator of jobs and work for people across the globe in the near future. However, also in 2020, Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo published a study that projected negative job growth when AI and robotics replace human jobs, predicting significant job loss each time a robot replaces a human in the workplace. But two years later, an article in The Economist showed that many economists have backtracked on their projection of a high unemployment rate due to AI and robotics in the workplace. According to the 2022 Economist article, “Fears of a prolonged period of high unemployment did not come to pass. . . . The gloomy narrative, which says that an invasion of job-killing robots is just around the corner, has for decades had an extraordinary hold on the popular imagination.” So which scenario is correct?

Contrary to popular belief, no industrialized nation has ever completely replaced human energy with technology in the workplace. For instance, the steam shovel never put construction workers out of work; whether people want to work in construction is a different question. And bicycles did not become obsolete because of vehicle manufacturing: “Consumer spending on bicycles and accessories peaked at $8.3 billion in 2021,” according to an article from the World Economic Forum.

Do people generally think AI and robotics can run an economy without human involvement, energy, ingenuity, and cooperation? While AI and robotics have boosted economies, they cannot plan or run an economy or create technological unemployment worldwide. “Some countries are in better shape to join the AI competition than others,” according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Although an accurate statement, it misses the fact that productive economies adapt to technological changes better than nonproductive economies. Put another way, productive people are even more effective when they use technology. Firms using AI and robotics can lower production costs, lower prices, and stimulate demand; hence, employment grows if demand and therefore production increase. In the unlikely event that AI or robotic productive technology does not lower a firm’s prices and production costs, employment opportunities will decline in that industry, but employment will shift elsewhere, potentially expanding another industry’s capacity. This industry may then increase its use of AI and robotics, creating more employment opportunities there.

In the not-so-distant past, office administrators did not know how to use computers, but when the computer entered the workplace, it did not eliminate administrative employment as was initially predicted. Now here we are, walking around with minicomputers in our pants pockets. The introduction of the desktop computer did not eliminate human administrative workers—on the contrary, the computer has provided more employment since its introduction in the workplace. Employees and business owners, sometimes separated by time and space, use all sorts of technological devices, communicate with one another across vast networks, and can be increasingly productive.

I remember attending a retirement party held by a company where I worked decades ago. The retiring employee told us all a story about when the company brought in its first computer back in the late ’60s. The retiree recalled, “The boss said we were going to use computers instead of typewriters and paper to handle administrative tasks. The next day, her department went from a staff of thirty to a staff of five.” The day after the department installed computers, twenty-five people left the company to seek jobs elsewhere so they would not “have to learn and deal with them darn computers.”

People often become afraid of losing their jobs when firms introduce new technology, particularly technology that is able to replicate human tasks. However, mass unemployment due to technological innovation has never happened in any industrialized nation. The notion that AI will disemploy humans in the marketplace is unfounded. Mike Thomas noted in his article “Robots and AI Taking Over Jobs: What to Know about the Future of Jobs” that “artificial intelligence is poised to eliminate millions of current jobs—and create millions of new ones.” The social angst about the future of AI and robotics is reminiscent of the early nineteenth-century Luddites of England and their fear of replacement technology. Luddites, heavily employed in the textile industry, feared the weaving machine would take their jobs. They traveled throughout England breaking and vandalizing machines and new manufacturing technology because of their fear of technological unemployment. However, as the textile industry there became capitalized, employment in that industry actually grew. History tells us that technology drives the increase of work and jobs for humans, not the opposite.

We should look forward to unskilled and semiskilled workers’ upgrading from monotonous work because of AI and robotics. Of course, AI and robotics will have varying effects on different sectors; but as a whole, they are enablers and amplifiers of human work. As noted, the steam shovel did not disemploy construction workers. The taxi industry was not eliminated because of Uber’s technology; if anything, Uber’s new AI technology lowered the barriers of entry to the taxi industry. Musicians were not eliminated when music was digitized; instead, this innovation gave musicians larger platforms and audiences, allowing them to reach millions of people with the swipe of a screen. And dating apps running on AI have helped millions of people fall in love and live happily ever after.

Chatbots inspiring new forms of ‘AI religion’

Academic warns of 'disputes’ in new faith

New chatbots have left users 'awestruck'. 

Photo: Getty Images

Gabriella Swerling
March 18 2023 02:30 AM

In Douglas Adams’ cult classic, The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, a supernatural computer called Deep Thought revealed that the ultimate meaning of life boiled down to... the number 42 .

Now, with the development of sophisticated technology, an artificial intelligence (AI) system being lauded as an all-knowing deity may not be so far away, according to one academic.

Professor Neil McArthur, at the University of Manitoba, in Canada, predicts that humanity is about to witness the birth of a new kind of religion, as online sects are emerging that appear to specifically worship AI.

He adds that new chatbots have left users “awestruck – and sometimes terrified – by their power” and that these are emotions that “lie at the heart of our experience of the divine”.

However, he warned that it could also “take a dark turn”. Prof McArthur said there is no organised religion dedicated to AI, but “it’s all happening on discussion boards like Reddit, with people starting to argue there’s an intelligence or consciousness behind AI”.

Writing in The Conversation, the academic website, he argues that in AI religion, people will be able to communicate directly with it on a daily basis, religion will be less hierarchical, followers will discuss doctrine, and it will be “endlessly diverse”, which could trigger disputes leading to conflict.

Telegraph Media Group Limited [2023]

SPIRIT ANIMAL

Athens zoo fights to save tiger cub found in garbage

MARCH 17, 2023

A white tiger cub that was abandoned outside the Attica Zoological Park and is believed to be a victim of illegal wildlife trade, drinks water at the zoo's infirmary, in Athens, Greece, on March 17, 2023.

Reuters

ATHENS — Greek veterinarians are fighting to save a white tiger cub abandoned in a rubbish bin at an Athens zoo, believed to be a victim of the illegal wildlife trade.

The three-month old white tiger was found on Feb 28 under a garbage bin in the parking lot of the Attica Zoological Park by a cleaner, who notified the zoo owner.

"It is the first time ever we had such an animal dumped outside our zoo," said zoo founder Jean-Jacques Lesueur. "I mean we had a number of cases of animals dumped, but usually these are abandoned pets — puppies, kittens, tortoises... but a tiger? Never."

The zoo's security camera video shows a vehicle driving up to the bins before midnight the previous night. Authorities were trying to trace the licence plates, said Lesueur.

The animal, which was thin and dehydrated, is in a serious condition.

"When I first saw the cub, I couldn't believe what I was seeing in front of me, I honestly couldn't believe that an animal was in such a state," said zoo veterinarian Noi Psaroudaki. "She was probably fed an improper diet, and she is severely deficient in vitamins and minerals, and this makes her bones extremely fragile."

X-rays also showed a metal pin has been placed in one of the cub's back legs.

Lesueur said if the tiger survives it will have to be relocated to a sanctuary, as the zoo has no other animals of its kind. International wildlife and animal welfare organisations have already contacted the zoo to help, he said.

The zoo's head keeper for cats, Andrea Cerny, said due to their size, diet and aggressiveness, tigers were difficult to care for.

Veterinarian anaesthesiologist Stylianos Mantzios, 35, checks a white tiger cub that was abandoned outside the Attica Zoological Park and is believed to be a victim of illegal wildlife trade, before a CT scan at a clinic in Athens, Greece, on March 15, 2023. 
PHOTO: Reuters

"A tiger definitely cannot be a pet. It is a very dangerous animal, with a very big killing instinct," said Cerny. "Most of these pet tigers are going to be abandoned or killed."

Wildlife trade in Europe is a billion euro business, according to Europol, and Asia and Africa are common origins of exotic animals being sold to European buyers.

A white tiger cub that was abandoned outside the Attica Zoological Park and is believed to be a victim of illegal wildlife trade, prepares for a CT scan at a clinic in Athens, Greece, on March 15, 2023.
PHOTO: Reuters

"We know that animals enter Greece illegally — snakes, tigers, like this one, it is not the first time a tiger has entered," said Maria Ganoti, head of Greek wildlife rescue association ANIMA, which has often cared for wild animals that have been abandoned, such as snakes and crocodiles.

"These usually come from entry points like Turkey, or Cyprus, but Greece has started to become an entry gate for the rest of Europe."

 

White tiger cub abandoned in Athens rubbish bin goes for CT scan

If the tiger survives, it will have to be relocated to a sanctuary

A veterinarian checks the white tiger cub before a scan at a clinic in Athens, Greece. Reuters

Simon Rushton

Mar 17, 2023

Beta V.1.0 - Powered by automated translation

Greek veterinarians are fighting to save a white tiger cub abandoned in a rubbish bin at an Athens zoo.

The three-month old white tiger, who was found thin and dehydrated on February 28, is believed to be a victim of the illegal wildlife trade.

“It is the first time ever we had such an animal dumped outside our zoo,” said zoo founder Jean-Jacques Lesueur.

READ MORE

More than 50 cheetahs rescued from illegal trade find new home

“I mean we had a number of cases of animals dumped, but usually these are abandoned pets — puppies, kittens, tortoises … but a tiger? Never.”

A team of veterinary surgeons helped with the cub's check-up and CT scan earlier this week.

“When I first saw the cub, I couldn't believe what I was seeing in front of me. I honestly couldn't believe that an animal was in such a state,” said wildlife veterinary surgeon Arsinoi Psaroudaki.

The cub was abandoned outside the Attica Zoological Park. Reuters

“She was probably fed an improper diet, and she is severely deficient in vitamins and minerals, and this makes her bones extremely fragile.”

X-rays also showed a metal pin has been placed in one of the cub's back legs.

Mr Lesueur said if the tiger survives, it will have to be relocated to a sanctuary, as the zoo has no other animals of its kind. International wildlife and animal welfare organisations have already contacted the zoo to help, he said.

The zoo's head keeper for cats, Andrea Cerny, said due to their size, diet and aggressiveness, tigers were difficult to care for.

X-rays also showed a metal pin has been placed in one of the cub's back legs. Reuters

“A tiger definitely cannot be a pet. It is a very dangerous animal, with a very big killing instinct,” she said. “Most of these pet tigers are going to be abandoned or killed.”

The tiger was left under a rubbish bin in the car park at Attica Zoological Park by a cleaner, who notified the zoo owner.

The zoo's security camera video shows a vehicle driving up to the bins before midnight the previous night. Authorities were trying to trace the licence plates, said Mr Lesueur.

The wildlife trade in Europe is a billion-euro business, according to Europol, and Asia and Africa are common origins of exotic animals sold to European buyers.

Ioannis Panopoulos, veterinarian anaesthesiologist George Polyzois, and zoo and wildlife veterinarian Arsinoi Psaroudaki. Reuters

“We know that animals enter Greece illegally — snakes, tigers, like this one, it is not the first time a tiger has entered,” said Maria Ganoti, head of Greek wildlife rescue association Anima, which has often cared for wild animals that have been abandoned.

“These usually come from entry points like Turkey, or Cyprus, but Greece has started to become an entry gate for the rest of Europe.”

Updated: March 17, 2023, 4:52 p.m.

Mandate to mitigate climate change impact: Middle East's 1st 100% plant-based meat factory now in Dubai

Middle East's first 100 per cent plant-based meat factory has come up in Dubai. The UAE Minister of Climate Change and Environment said the 100 per cent plant-based meat factory supports the UAE’s Food Security Strategy and our mandate to mitigate the impact of climate change.

Press Trust of India
New Delhi ,UPDATED: Mar 18, 2023 

The IFFCO Group, one of the #UAE’s largest producers of food products, has opened the first 100% plant-based meat factory (Photo: Twitter)

By Press Trust of India: In a bid to intensify a sustainable and healthy food chain in the Middle East, leading processed food producer IFFCO Group on Friday opened the region’s first 100 per cent plant-based meat factory here.

Located in Dubai Industrial City, the THRYVE factory will provide nourishing, sustainable and healthy local plant-based meat products inspired by the unique flavours of Middle Eastern cuisine.


Mariam bint Mohammed Saeed Hareb Almheiri, UAE Minister of Climate Change and Environment, said the 100 per cent plant-based meat factory supports the UAE’s Food Security Strategy and our mandate to mitigate the impact of climate change.

“The opening of this innovative new facility also supports our efforts to protect the country’s ecosystems and enhance its food and water security and diversify our food sources,” she said, adding that the new factory represents a significant contribution to sustainability in the food supply chain.

Hadi Badri, CEO of the Dubai Economic Development Corporation at Dubai’s Department of Economy and Tourism said: “It contributes to Dubai’s economic diversification journey in line with the goal of the Dubai Economic Agenda D33 to consolidate the emirate’s status as one of the top three global cities.”

The THRYVE plant-based venture, developed using cutting-edge food technology, contributes to at least three UN SDG’s: good health and well-being, responsible consumption and production, and climate action.

How Nithyananda's 'KAILASA' duped 30 US cities with 'Sister City' scam

City of Newark rescinded the agreement after finding about the nation

Web Desk Updated: March 18, 2023 

Swami Nithyananda | Official Facebook account

Controversial godman Swami Nithyananda's nation 'United States of KAILASA' has once again gained attention for duping the city of Newark in New Jersey, United States with 'Sister City' scam. The nation reportedly signed a 'cultural partnership' with over 30 American cities.

Apparently the city of Newark in the US state of New Jersey came out in the open and said that it had canceled the 'Sister City' agreement with the fictional city.

The incident occurred when Mayor Ras Baraka invited representatives of KAILASA to Newark for 'cultural partnership' when it was discovered that it was not a real nation.

Until the official ceremony the officials of Newark was unaware that KAILASA was not a real country.

They had signed the documents during the ceremony to become a 'Sister City' with KAILASA on January 12.

According to the nation's website, over 30 American cities including Richmond, Virginia, Ohio to Buena Park, Florida have signed a cultural partnership with KAILASA, reported Fox News.

The report said that "we are finding out the supreme fake pontiff" has a "long list of cities he has duped".

Not just the mayors, city councils, even people running for federal government are falling for the fake nation, it reported.





Press Secretary in the Department of Communications, City of Newark, Susan Garofalo told PTI that "we have learned about the circumstances surrounding Kailasa, the City of Newark immediately took action and rescinded the sister city agreement."

"Based on deception, the ceremony was groundless and void...Although this was a regrettable incident, the City of Newark remains committed to partnering with people from diverse cultures in order to enrich each other with connectivity, support and mutual respect," said Garofalo.

According to Fox News, the cities claimed that the 'proclamation is not an endorsement but a response to a request'. Simply by requesting them to sign the deal the nation got them to sign.

"I think that's embarrassing that he didn't do his background research before entertaining them," a Newark resident was quoted by Fox News.

Last month, 'United States of KAILASA' attended the recent United Nations meeting where its representative demanded protection for the 'Supreme Pontiff of Hinduism'

Ma Vijayapriya Nithyananda representing 'United States of KAILASA' at the 19th United Nations Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (CESR) meeting sought UN's involvement in stopping the persecution of Nithyananda.

She also claimed that her nation has established embassies and NGOs in 150 countries.

Karnataka sessions court in 2010 had issued a non-bailable warrant against the controversial godman, accused of rape and child abuse.

According to the official website of KAILASA, it is a "nation without borders created by dispossessed Hindus from around the world who lost the right to practice Hinduism authentically in their own countries."

China wine tariff pushes Australia’s grape growers into crisis

Australia’s grape growers are still suffering. This year, there is even less demand for red wine.

 PHOTO: UNSPLASH

LONG READ

For years, China’s thirst for Australian wine seemed insatiable. Chinese drinkers were so passionate about big-bodied red wines from Australia that many vineyards replaced white grapes with darker varieties. Wineries even reverted to using corks – instead of convenient screw tops – because Chinese consumers liked the traditional plug.

But then everything unraveled.

In April 2020, Australia’s prime minister at the time, Mr Scott Morrison, called for an independent investigation into the origin of Covid-19. Beijing was furious, denouncing “political games” meant to assign blame for the pandemic. In response, China unleashed its overwhelming economic might.

It imposed a punitive tariff on Australian wine, and the country’s biggest overseas market vanished almost immediately. Sales to China plummeted 97 per cent that first year. Storage tanks overflowed with unsold vintages of shiraz and cabernet sauvignon, pressuring red grape prices.

Australia’s grape growers are still suffering. This year, there is even less demand for red wine. Farmers are facing a choice between selling grapes at a huge loss or keeping costs to a minimum and not harvesting. Grape growers like Mr Mauro Travaglione are even questioning the future of their family business.

On his 130-acre farm in Australia’s Riverland region outside Adelaide, Mr Travaglione has not produced any wholesale red wine since the tariff came into effect. Last year, he sold his red grapes to other wineries and felt lucky to do so, even though he barely covered his costs.

“Every day is a struggle,” said Mr Travaglione, whose family has lived in Waikerie, a rural town in the state of South Australia, since his parents bought a small fruit farm there in 1966. “You have to seriously think: Is it worth continuing on?”

When the Chinese market was emerging, Beijing dangled entry as a carrot. Now that its economy is entrenched as the world’s second largest, the threat of losing access to China’s 1.4 billion consumers is a stick that few countries or industries can afford to provoke.

China has applied political pressure on Taiwan by blocking imports of the island’s pineapples, apples and fish. When Lithuania cozied up to Taiwan, China imposed an unofficial trade blockade on the Baltic nation.

In recent months, China has embraced a softer approach to diplomacy, fueling optimism that trade relations with Australia may improve. In November, China’s top leader, Mr Xi Jinping, and Australia’s prime minister, Mr Anthony Albanese, met at a gathering of the Group of 20. A month later, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong became the country’s first top diplomat to visit China in four years. The two sides agreed to start a dialogue on trade.

But there will be a lot of acrimony to unwind. Shortly after Australia called for a Covid inquiry, China’s Ministry of Commerce opened an investigation into whether Australia was dumping wine onto the market at artificially low prices. In March 2021, China imposed a five-year tariff of up to 218 per cent on Australian wine sold in quantities of less than 2 liters.

The punitive measures didn’t end there. The tariffs excluded red wine shipped in large pouches and bottled in China, but Australian farmers said their shipments sat in Chinese ports for months, unable to clear customs. China also blocked other Australian imports, such as coal, barley, cotton and lobsters.

China went from being the biggest buyer of Australian wine, accounting for 40 per cent of exports, to 23rd, below countries like Sweden and the Philippines. It was devastating for an industry that had reoriented its priorities after the two countries struck a free-trade agreement in 2015.

Since roughly 95 per cent of Australian wine bought in China was red, Riverland farmers had added 1,600 acres of cabernet sauvignon, shiraz and merlot vines in the last decade, even as the total acreage devoted to grape growing shrank, according to Wine Australia.

“We were seduced by China,” said Mr Tim Whetstone, a member of South Australia’s House of Assembly representing the Riverland, the country’s biggest grape-producing region. He estimated that half the region’s red grapes would not be harvested for sale this year.

“We put all our eggs in the China basket, and it has come back to bite us,” Mr Whetstone said.

Ms Nikki Palun was one of the Australian winemakers who charged into China. Fluent in Mandarin, she started shipping bottles of wine to China in 2014, reaching a height of more than 2 million a year – roughly 90 per cent of her business. When the tariffs hit, her business disappeared.

She tried products unaffected by the tariffs. At first, she made spirits like vodka and brandy. She even dabbled with sparkling grapefruit juice, but they failed to catch on. The situation was further complicated because Australia was in a Covid lockdown, making it difficult to drum up new business at home.

Ms Palun eventually opened a tasting room in Melbourne and focused on selling in Australia. Now most of her sales are domestic. She said she had been looking at other overseas markets, “but nothing can replace China in terms of volume”.

Despite all that has happened, Ms Palun said the problem was not China, but a lack of skilful diplomacy by Australia’s previous government. “We publicly humiliated China, and to me, you just don’t do that,” she said.

The pain continues to deepen in Australia. Accolade Wines, a conglomerate, told its cooperative of Riverland farmers that producing more red wine this year would only depress red grapes again next year.

Instead of buying more red grapes as part of a multiyear contract, Accolade said, it wanted to ease the glut and would pay farmers to “mothball” vineyards, or put vines in a dormant state and not produce fruit for sale this year. Accolade also offered to pay farmers to switch red grape vines back to white. Ms Melanie Kargas, a commercial manager for CCW Co-operative, a collective of about 500 Riverland grape growers, said she had never heard of such offers before.

“They’re not profitable options, but they’re sort of tread-water options,” said Mr Will Swinstead, a cooperative member who owns a family farm in Overland Corner, in the Riverland.

Mr Swinstead chose to not harvest his red grapes. He said it was disappointing because he had invested heavily to plant shiraz vines in the last five years to meet the demands of the Chinese market. He is better off than other farmers in the area, however, because he has another business growing watermelons, he said.

Running a farm is never easy, and it is prone to boom-or-bust cycles. But grape growing is in Mr Travaglione’s blood. His parents, who came to Australia in the 1950s, were born into winemaking families in Italy. He had long hoped that his children would one day take over the family farm.

But now Mr Travaglione, 55, is reconsidering whether this is a life he would want for them. The tariff wasn’t the only challenge. An usually heavy rainy season flooded the nearby Murray River, and that moisture elevated the risk of crop disease. The cost of fertiliser, shipping containers and other business expenses is also higher.

When his son expressed an interest in winemaking, Mr Travaglione encouraged him to explore other careers. His son will study mechanical engineering at a university next year.

“It was heartbreaking,” Mr Travaglione said. “It’s hard to encourage the younger generation to come into the industry.”

Recently, he learned that his neighbor, a third-generation grape grower, was calling it quits and listed his property for sale. Even exiting the industry is tough, Mr Travaglione said, because many vineyards are for sale, but there are no buyers.

“If this continues for another two or three years, a lot of growers will be pulling out and just walking away,” he said. “It’s just not viable.” 

NYTIMES

The audacious AUKUS submarine deal and Asia’s changing security landscape

on March 18, 2023
By Bejoy Sebastian

In this exhaustive analysis, I try to spell out the impact and potential consequences of the recently-brokered submarine deal between the U.S., the U.K., and Australia on Asia’s changing security landscape.

***

All advanced navies of the world possess lethal submarines, powered by either diesel-electric or nuclear propulsion. These underwater warships are the most potent asset at the disposal of a naval force for maritime power projection, sea denial and sea control. Lying silently under water, they are capable of sinking surface ships, including large aircraft carriers, with torpedoes or ballistic missiles. Ever since WW-II, submarines have made its name as one of the most crucial components of maritime strategy and naval warfare. Australia and the U.K. are two key maritime nations of the world, which happen to be security allies of the United States, a country that owns and operates the largest fleet of nuclear-powered submarines in the world. Being nuclear-powered not necessarily mean being armed with nuclear warheads.

The 2021-formed AUKUS (Australia, U.S., U.K.) “enhanced trilateral security partnership” has taken cooperation between the three Anglophone countries to the next level. U.S. President Joe Biden hosted the prime ministers of the United Kingdom and Australia – PM Rishi Sunak and PM Anthony Albanese – in the Californian port city of San Diego on 13 March 2023, where they jointly announced a detailed four-phased plan to equip Australia (a non-nuclear-weapon state) with “conventionally armed, nuclear-powered” submarines (codenamed SSN) at least by the next decade along with strengthening cooperation in other areas such as critical and emerging technologies.

The plan would cost Canberra’s exchequer up to a whopping A$ 368 bn. (US$ 245 bn.) in total by 2055, according to reports. The detailed plan, spanning a time frame of three decades, was announced after an eighteen-month-long consultation period following the creation of AUKUS in mid-September 2021. Australian PM Anthony Albanese called the deal “the single biggest leap” in Australia’s defence capabilities in the nation’s history. If the plan goes ahead smoothly as planned, Australia will become the seventh country in the world to add nuclear-powered submarines to its navy. As the deal turns out to be a race against time, the biggest challenge is to ensure deterrence capabilities for Australia at the present, as the full benefits of the deal would take years to materialise.

AUKUS leaders believe that the deal would “strengthen deterrence and bolster stability in the Indo-Pacific and beyond for decades to come”, apparently keeping in mind the exponential growth of China’s naval power in the recent past. China has built 12 nuclear-powered submarines in the last two decades, including ballistic missile submarines (codenamed SSBNs) and is continuing its ambitious ship-building spree in all fronts. As per the AUKUS plan, the first phase of the deal is set to begin as early as this year, with U.S. and British SSNs increasing their port visits in Australia along with joint embedded training of naval personnel, which will be followed by a rotational deployment of U.S. and British SSNs in the island continent.

In the remaining two phases of the deal, Washington will deliver a flotilla of three to five advanced Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines to Australia by the early 2030s, upon Congressional approval, and eventually a new “SSN-AUKUS class” of nuclear-powered submarines (SSN) will be developed in the decade that follows, for future commissioning in both British and Australian navies. With the use of nuclear energy involved, the Indo-Pacific region is abuzz with fears and concerns of an escalating arms race, even though AUKUS promises “the highest nuclear non-proliferation standard”.

Current owners of nuclear-powered submarines

As of now, only the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (U.S., Russia, China, U.K., France) and India have active nuclear-powered attack-capable submarines in their naval fleet (see the image below). More than half of the 130 active nuclear-powered submarines in the world are operated by the U.S. Navy (67), followed by Russia (31), China (12), U.K. (10), France (9) and India (1). The rise of China’s offensive military capabilities and its naval power in particular, since the 1990s, is the single largest factor that has convinced Canberra to join hands with Washington and London to bolster its own capabilities, through AUKUS, by making use of “next-generation” British hull design and “cutting-edge” American technology.

Countries with active nuclear powered submarines (via Statista)

The AUKUS deal smartly gets away with a loophole in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1968, which allows for the transfer of fissionable material and nuclear technology from a nuclear-weapon state (NWS) to a non-NWS if it is used for non-explosive military use like naval propulsion. Such a transfer is also exempted from inspections and monitoring by the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), an organisation that stands for the peaceful use of nuclear energy and the promotion of nuclear safety. The IAEA Director General said that he had received “separate communications” on the matter from the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Australia, as well as from the U.K. and the U.S.

Mixed reactions

Of all the countries that have reacted to the highly ambitious AUKUS project, the responses of China and Russia stands out, as they are in direct strategic competition with the de facto leader of AUKUS – the United States. While the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson remarked that the U.S. and its AUKUS allies are “walking further and further down the path of error and danger for their own geopolitical self-interest”, Russian foreign minister commented, “the Anglo-Saxon world, with the creation of structures like AUKUS and with the advancement of NATO military infrastructures into Asia, is making a serious bet on many years of confrontation in Asia”.

While Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong cities Canberra’s bid for “strategic equilibrium” in the region as the underlying factor that led to the AUKUS pact, opinions on the submarine deal, which comes at a humongous cost, are not uniform across Australia’s political spectrum. Former Prime Minister Paul Keating thinks Canberra is compromising on a proper national defence strategy to help maintain U.S. “strategic hegemony” in Asia and has also stated that the submarine deal would be ineffective in the event of a war. Indonesia, Malaysia and New Zealand have also shared their concerns about the risk of nuclear proliferation in the region.

As per the Bangkok Treaty of 1995, Southeast Asia is a nuclear-weapon-free zone (NWFZ). Moreover, almost all of the ASEAN member-states have deep economic linkages with China, even though they rely on the U.S. for “security and stability” in Asia. Even though some of them have disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea, like the Philippines and Vietnam, they prefer to avoid unnecessary “provocations” and try to balance their ties with the U.S. and China, amid intensifying regional rivalry between the two big powers. Australian defence and foreign ministries are expected to embark on a diplomatic charm offensive to assuage all concerns of Southeast Asian countries lying in China’s periphery.

Eyeing for balance of power

AUKUS was announced just one year after a Pentagon report claimed that China has built the world’s largest naval fleet in sheer numerical terms, even though the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) relies mostly on smaller classes of ships, while the U.S. naval strength is further multiplied by its allied navies. One of the most-overlooked events of March 2023 was the annual session of China’s ceremonial national legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC), which handed over China’s Presidency to the hyper-nationalistic and revanchist leader Xi Jinping for an unprecedented third time in a row.

The newly-appointed Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang, formerly China’s Ambassador to the United States, held a press conference on the sidelines of the NPC, during which he made a significant remark that throws light on the deteriorating state of U.S.-China relations. He accused the U.S. of harbouring a “Cold War mentality” and said, “… the United States claims that it seeks to out-compete China but does not seek conflict. Yet in reality, it’s so-called competition means to contain and suppress China in all respects and get the two countries locked in a zero-sum game … If the United States does not hit the brake but continues to speed down the wrong path, no amount of guardrails can prevent derailing, and there will surely be conflict and confrontation … Containment and suppression will not make America great, and it will not stop the rejuvenation of China …”

Washington’s shooting of a suspected Chinese “spy balloon” that flew over American airspace earlier this year is the latest example of this downward spiral in U.S.-China ties. The Indo-Pacific, as a geostrategic concept and a broader maritime region, came into being as China began to flex its military muscles throughout its immediate and extended neighbourhood, where U.S. and its allies have a robust military presence.

Being part of the U.S.-led alliance system, including the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing network and the recent AUKUS pact, Canberra has become a lynchpin of Washington’s evolving Indo-Pacific strategy to counter growing Chinese assertiveness and stated offensive intentions vis-à-vis Taiwan, the South and East China Seas, and also the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with India. Australia is also due to the host the third in-person Quad leaders’ summit later this year.

As the “threat perception” of China in the West continues to rise day by day, the extent to which an AUKUS-centered deterrence is possible in Asia remains to be seen in the years to come.



Bejoy Sebastian is Teaching Assistant at FLAME University, Pune, India. He writes on India-China relations, Chinese foreign policy and the broader geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific region. His articles and essays have previously appeared in Delhi Post, The Kochi Post, The Diplomat, and republished in The Asian Age (Bangladesh), and The Cambodia Daily. He is an alumnus of the Indian Institute of Mass Communication (IIMC), New Delhi, and holds an MA in International Relations from Mahatma Gandhi University, Kerala, India.

Angolan Outlet Camunda News Suspends Operations Indefinitely After Police Harassment

17 MARCH 2023
Committee to Protect Journalists (New York)

New York — Angolan authorities should stop harassing the privately owned Camunda News website and ensure that members of the press can work freely, the Committee to Protect Journalists said Friday.

On Wednesday, March 15, the outlet suspended its operations indefinitely, according to media reports and the outlet's owner, David Boio, who spoke to CPJ via messaging app.

Boio told CPJ that the decision to shutter Camunda News, which covered current affairs on its website, Facebook page, and YouTube channel, came after months of government harassment.

"Angolan authorities must commit to the development of a free and independent media and refrain from harassing online outlets like Camunda News," said Angela Quintal, CPJ's Africa program coordinator. "Instead of censorship through intimidation and archaic licensing requirements, the government should encourage a plurality of media to fulfill the public's right to access information."

In October 2022, officials with the police National Criminal Investigation Service, the SIC, questioned Boio about Nelson Demba, an activist and co-host of the weekly current affairs show 360° aired on Camunda News' YouTube and Facebook channels, Boio told CPJ.

Demba is facing charges including incitement to rebellion and outrage against the president, and is presently in hiding, according to reports, which said he believes the charges against him are retaliation for his political activity.

Boio told CPJ that SIC officers had also summoned Camunda News senior reporter llídio Manuel and two other staff members in October. He declined to name those staffers for fear of their safety.

Subsequently, in February 2023, SIC officers called Boio to summon him for questioning as a potential state witness in Demba's case, according to Boio and those news reports. In that phone call, an investigator warned Boio that an arrest warrant would be issued if he failed to appear and instructed him to bring company documents related to Camunda News.

During three hours of questioning on March 7, Boio told CPJ that he was only asked one question about Demba and that most of the questions were related to Camunda News, its legal status and funding, and his personal life.

Shortly after that questioning, Boio suspended Camunda News' current affairs video content. On Wednesday, he suspended the entire platform, he said.

"The harassment and intimidation are getting to a point where it could lead to more serious problems, and we know how the system in Angola can be complicated and make up serious accusations, so I need to consider my safety as well as that of all others working at Camunda," Boio told CPJ.

Manuel, the senior reporter summoned in October, told CPJ that he was unable to hire a lawyer in time and did not attend the questioning, and had not received another summons. He said no details of the case had been disclosed to him.

Boio told CPJ that in May 2020 an SIC investigator had arrived at Camunda News' offices and asked about its ownership, and the following day the broadcaster received a notification from the Ministry of Telecommunications Technologies and Media requesting the documentation to prove the outlet was operating legally.

"We wrote back to the Ministry explaining that we couldn't find the legal framework for online content such as what we produced," Boio told CPJ.

"If we had a license, we would probably be treated the same way the TV channels that got cancelled did, but because there is no legal framework they use SIC to intimidate us," Boio said. Authorities suspended three TV broadcasters in 2021.

Benja Satula, a lawyer representing Camunda News, told CPJ via messaging app that there is no legal framework covering online content platforms, so there could be no illegal activity warranting a criminal investigation.

SIC spokesperson Manuel Alaiwa responded to CPJ's requests for comment by phone and messaging app saying that he would call later. He had not responded by the time of publication.

When CPJ called Ministry of Telecommunications Technologies and Media spokesperson João Demba for comment, he said the ministry could not comment because it was awaiting information from the SIC.

Biden urges Congress to hold bank executives accountable after collapses

Congress must take action to strengthen ability of federal government to hold senior management accountable, White House says

18/03/2023 Saturday
AA


US President Joe Biden on Friday urged Congress to action to hold senior bank executives accountable.

“Congress must take action to strengthen the ability of the federal government to hold senior management accountable when their banks fail and enter FDIC ( Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) receivership,” the White House said in a statement.

“Specifically, when banks fail because of mismanagement and excessive risk taking, it should be easier for regulators to claw back compensation from executives, to impose civil penalties, and to ban executives from working in the banking industry again,” the statement added.

Biden called on the Congress to expand the FDIC’s authority to “claw back compensation” from executives of the “failed” banks, such as Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, and to strengthen the FDIC’s authority to bar executives from holding jobs in the banking industry.

He also urged Congress to expand the FDIC’s authority to fine the executives of the collapsed banks.

“The President is eager to work with Congress to strengthen accountability in these three areas – and others that Members of Congress identify,” the White House said, stressing that “no one is above the law.”

The two American banks collapsed in less than a week as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) took control of SVB’s and Signature Bank’s assets.​​​​​​​

East Palestine Soil Contains Dioxin Levels Hundreds of Times Over Cancer Risk Threshold

"I certainly wouldn't be comfortable living there," said one organic chemist.

Ohio EPA and EPA contractors collect soil and air samples from the Norfolk Southern train derailment site on March 9, 2023 in East Palestine, Ohio.
(Photo: Michael Swensen/Getty Images)

JAKE JOHNSON

COMMONDREAMS
Mar 17, 2023

East Palestine, Ohio residents' concerns about the enduring impact of last month's fiery train derailment are likely to intensify following the release of data showing that levels of dioxin in the soil near the wreck site are far higher than the cancer risk threshold recommended by federal scientists.

Dioxin is a toxic and carcinogenic byproduct of burning vinyl chloride, a hazardous chemical that at least five Norfolk Southern train cars were carrying when they derailed in early February, sparking a full-blown environmental and public health disaster.

Citing a report that Pace Analytical prepared for Ohio's neighbor Indiana, The Guardianreported Friday that "East Palestine soil showed levels of '2,3,7,8 TCDD toxicity equivalence' of 700 parts per trillion (ppt)," potentially stemming from the controlled burn of vinyl chloride in the wake of the crash.

"The level at which the EPA will initiate cleanup action in residential areas is 1,000 ppt," the newspaper explained. "However, the cleanup triggers are much lower in many states—90 ppt in Michigan, and 50 ppt in California... Moreover, EPA scientists in 2010 put the cancer risk threshold for dioxins in residential soil at 3.7 ppt, and the agency recommended lowering the cleanup trigger to 72 ppt."

The Obama administration tanked the EPA scientists' effort to formally lower the federal cleanup threshold, The Guardian noted.

Chemical experts and former EPA officials expressed alarm over the data while acknowledging it was limited to just two soil samples and more testing is needed.

"The levels are not screaming high, but we have confirmed that dioxins are in East Palestine's soil," Linda Birnbaum, former head of the U.S. National Toxicology Program, told The Guardian. "The EPA must test the soil in the area more broadly."

Carsten Prasse, an organic chemist at Johns Hopkins University, added that the dioxin concentrations in the soil samples examined are "actually concerning."

"My main concern is: is this reflective of the level in the area in East Palestine... and of the levels individuals who live near the rail are exposed to?" Prasse asked. "I certainly wouldn't be comfortable living there."

Despite outside experts' fears, EPA regional administrator Debra Shore insisted that the dioxin levels detected in the Indiana report are "very low."



The Guardian's reporting came days after Ohio's Republican attorney general filed suit against Norfolk Southern, accusing the rail giant of "recklessly endangering" East Palestine residents.

"Ohio shouldn't have to bear the tremendous financial burden of Norfolk Southern's glaring negligence," said AG Dave Yost said. "The fallout from this highly preventable incident may continue for years to come, and there's still so much we don't know about the long-term effects on our air, water, and soil."

In Congress, a bipartisan group of lawmakers is working to build support for legislation that would impose more strict regulations on trains carrying hazardous materials such as vinyl chloride.

During Senate testimony last week, Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw refused to endorse the bill.

"If Norfolk Southern had paid a little more attention to safety and a little less attention to its profits—had cared a little more about the Ohioans along its tracks, and a little less about its executives and shareholders—these accidents would not have been as bad, or might not have happened at all," Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), the lead Democratic sponsor of the Railway Safety Act, said during the hearing.

Protests resume across France after Macron forced through contested pension reform

Issued on: 18/03/2023

01:27

People took to the streets across France on Saturday after President Emmanuel Macron imposed an unpopular pension overhaul without a parliament vote.

Violence erupts at French pension protests for 3rd night

DW

5 hours ago

Authorities banned protests near the National Assembly building in Paris over plans to raise the retirement age. A location change failed to stop angry demonstrators from facing off with riot police.

Violence broke out between protesters and security forces for a third night in central Paris on Saturday over the government's decision to abandon a parliamentary vote on unpopular pension reforms.

President Emmanuel Macron's overhaul will raise the standard retirement age by two years to 64, which he says is essential to ensure the system does not go bust.

After ministers approved the plan by decree on Thursday, bypassing the lower house of parliament, rival opposition parties filed two separate no-confidence motions, which are due to be debated on Monday afternoon. They are expected to fail.

What happened on Saturday?

Police said around 4,000 people gathered in Place d'Italie after being banned from demonstrating close to the National Assembly building due to angry clashes on previous nights.

The ban was ordered because of "serious risks of disturbances to public order."

Le Monde newspaper said a group of protesters started trash fires, broke class on billboards and bus shelters and thew barriers, used to block streets, at police.



The paper said 73 people were arrested and just as on previous nights, riot police used tear gas and water cannon to disperse the crowd.

Earlier Saturday, dozens of students and activists marched through Paris' Forum des Halles shopping mall, chanting loudly and letting off red smoke.

Violence was also reported in the southeastern city of Lyon for a second night when small groups confronted police several times, prompting a response that included tear gas.

On Friday, more than 30 people were detained after a group of demonstrators tried to break into a town hall and set fire to the building.

French protest against Macron's pension reforms

01:46

Mostly peaceful marches took place in several other French cities, including Marseille, Montpellier and Nantes — where one placard read "Death to the king," seemingly in reference to Macron.

Workers continued protests in several cities over the government's handling of pension reforms

STEPHANE MAHE/REUTERS

What next for the protest movement?

A broad alliance of France's main unions has said it would continue to mobilize members to try to force a U-turn on the pension changes.

Some unions ordered workers to continue their rolling strikes, severely affecting high-speed and regional rail services this weekend, among other services.

Paris' municipal rubbish collectors have kept up their action, and by Friday an estimated 10,000 tons of trash were left festering in the streets.

Some French airports will see almost a third of flights canceled on Monday as a result of walkouts, union leaders predicted.

The CGT union said its members had shut down the TotalEnergies oil refinery in Normandy on Friday evening. A similar blockade of a refinery in southern France began earlier in the day.

A day of nationwide industrial action is also scheduled for Thursday — the ninth since mid-January.

Public hostility not enough to quash plans

Opposition to the pension reform was already high, with two-thirds of the French population against the plan, according to polls.

But the sudden move to avoid a parliamentary vote, invoking the controversial article 49.3 of the constitution, caused not only public outrage but also criticism among the political class.

French government forces through pension reform

01:54

In parliament next week, opposition lawmakers hope to garner enough support to topple the cabinet in the no-confidence votes and repeal the law.

But Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne's cabinet is largely expected to survive.

The motion would need backing from around half the group of opposition right-wing Republicans, a scenario seen as highly improbable. They would also need the shared support of the powerful extreme left and extreme right factions in the National Assembly.

Macron put the pension reforms at the center of his re-election campaign last year.

While his government argued France needed to fall in line with its European neighbors where the retirement age is typically higher, critics say the changes are unfair to people who work from a young age in physically tough jobs and women who interrupt their careers to raise children.

The unrest is reminiscent of the Yellow Vest protests which erupted in late 2018 over high fuel prices, which forced Macron into a partial U-turn on a carbon tax.

Macron had also planned pension reforms for his first term as president but had to row back on the idea, campaigning last year on a pledge to finish the job.

mm/msh (AFP, AP, Reuters)

FRIDAY

France: Pension reform spells crisis for Macron

Lisa Louis in Paris
03/17/2023

March 17, 2023

French President Emmanuel Macron is trying to push through a pension reform without a parliamentary vote. That has triggered a political crisis ― and could help the far right.

It was an extraordinary scene that epitomized the political storm France has walked into.

As Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne was making her way to the National Assembly's podium Thursday afternoon, lawmakers from the opposition stood up, chanting the Marseillaise and holding signs saying "no to 64 years" and "democracy."

The Assembly's president interrupted the session for things to calm down.

But when Borne took the floor a few minutes later, she still had to drown out the parliamentarians' boos.

"Based on article 49.3 of the constitution, I engage the government's responsibility," she yelled, announcing that a controversial pension reform increasing France's minimum retirement age from 62 to 64 years would be pushed through without a vote in the lower house of parliament.

"No to 64 years!" Prime Minister Borne was faced with protest from parliamentarians as she announced the pension reform

PASCAL ROSSIGNOL/REUTERS

'Something's not right in the French political system'

Paragraph 3 of Article 49 allows the prime minister to act unilaterally. The only way to stop a bill that was passed under this rule would be to bring down the government.

"What happened was absolutely unheard of ― it was terrible to see how the National Assembly went completely crazy," Bruno Cautres from Paris-based think tank Centre for Political Research told DW.

Headwinds against what was by many perceived as an authoritarian move were also blowing outside the parliament, following weeks of protests against the pension reform.

Thousands of demonstrators took to the streets of Paris and other cities across the country, some of them staying late into the night and clashing with riot police. Further protests are expected over the weekend.

"This highlights that something's not right in the French political system ― we can see that in our regular polls, which show that people want a more participative democracy where unions and civil society are involved in the elaboration of legal texts," Cautres said.

Opposition parties have filed two no-confidence motions that will be put to the vote on Monday.

Will the government to survive the no-confidence vote?

The French government has received the support of the leaders of the conservative Republicans. Their 60 votes would give President Emmanuel Macron's minority coalition the needed majority to fend off the no-confidence votes.

And yet, the same leaders had already pledged their party's backing for the pension reform. But not enough Republicans agreed to follow that lead, which is why President Macron deemed a parliamentary majority for his reform unlikely and decided to trigger the 49.3.

Vincent Martigny, a professor for political science at Nice University and Paris-based Ecole Polytechnique, thinks the move has plunged France into a political crisis that is here to stay, at least in the medium term.

While President Macron's job is not directly threatened, running the country seems set become a headache.

French protest against Macron's pension reforms

01:46

Government is 'fatally injured'

"The government in its current form is fatally injured, just like during a corrida, a bullfight," Martigny said to DW, adding that PM Borne would almost certainly have to step down.

"If one of the no-confidence votes gets through, the government will fall and the president is likely to dissolve the National Assembly," Martigny said.

"If the government survives the vote, Macron can either withdraw the reform, which seems highly unlikely, or stick to it, which will spark a social crisis with consequences unknown that could include snap parliamentary elections," he added.

The president, meanwhile, argues France needs the reform to maintain its financial credibility on international markets, where it refinances its debt that stands at about 110 percent of France's GDP.

"I consider that the financial and economic risks [of not carrying out the reform] are too big," Macron said in front of the cabinet on Thursday, as per a statement from his office.

"But as opposed to people in countries like Germany, the French don't care about public debt – for them, it's a side issue," Martigny underlined.

Macron's path ahead is unclear after he pushed through his unpopular pension reform

STEPHANE MAHE/AFP

A country with 'welfare nationalism'

The pension system, by contrast, lies at the heart of their concerns.

"The French practice what I'd call welfare nationalism ― they are very attached to their system of redistribution and consider it as a crucial part of their identity," Martigny said.

He added that even in politically stable times, it was a challenge to carry out welfare reforms in France.

"But we are in dire economic times with a war in Ukraine and rising inflation. On top of that, Macron has hardly negotiated with the unions and wants to push the reform through by force," Martigny said. "All this is causing a huge uproar."


Is there a way out of the political crisis?

Cautres from the Centre for Political Research thinks the only way for Macron to get back into calmer political waters in the medium term is to reach a majority in parliament.

"Either he forms a stable coalition agreement with the Republicans or he dissolves the National Assembly hoping for a better result in the subsequent parliamentary elections," the expert said.

But Benjamin Morel, a political analyst and lecturer for public law at University Paris 2 Panthéon-Assas, doubts these strategies will work.

"The Republicans are not reliable partners ― they seem to be a group of free electrons without much party discipline," he told DW.

And snap parliamentary elections could harbor another risk.

"The far right is likely to gain ground, as it has managed to build up a respectable image during the debates in parliament while being against the reform and on the side of the people. And democratic fatigue, as we are seeing it now, often leads to either abstention or a vote for the extremes," Morel said.

Edited by: Carla Bleiker

Paris drowns in garbage amid strikes

Several unions are on strike to protest a pension reform, with garbage collectors among those to walk out. Now, streets are filling up with garbage and its stench. The strike is expected to last at least until Monday.

Image: Stevens Tomas/ABACA/dpa/picture alliance

Weeks of protest in France
For weeks, hundreds of thousands of people have taken to the streets across France to protest against the government's planned pension reform. On Wednesday, too, people gathered for protest marches in the course of the afternoon — as here in Paris. Nationwide, police expect slightly fewer participants than last time: around 750,000 demonstrators.

Aurelien Morissard/AP Photo/picture alliance

Untold masses of trash

Critics say the planned increase in the retirement age from 62 to 64 could be particularly hard on people in physically demanding jobs. Public sector workers have gone on strike, with garbage remaining uncollected in many cities for more than a week. Thousands of tons of garbage are already piling up on the streets of the capital, Paris, alone.

Rats in tourist hotspots
Rats are everywhere, one woman told the French AFP news agency: "It's disgusting. Some people can hardly get into their houses anymore." One German tourist said she had been wanting to take a romantic trip with her partner but that the trash had spoiled the city's charm. " Mark from the US complains, "It's unsanitary and not good for tourism."

Reform against the will of the people?
Around 70% of people in France reject the reform. Socialist Paris Mayor Anne Hildago is also backing the strikers. She is fully behind the protests, she declared on Monday: "If this affects people who work in the public sector — as well as those who are employed by private companies — then I say to the government: Talk to them!"

Waiting for action — but for how long?

It is not ye clear when the garbage trucks will leave their garage at the waste incineration plant in Ivry-sur-Seine. For Natacha Pommet, general secretary of the CGT General Confederation of Trade Unions, the government is responsible for the strike: "The problem is that we have a government that is desperate to implement a reform that the majority of people don't agree with."

Hopes for last-minute change of plan

Public sector workers wanted to continue striking at least until next Monday. Meanwhile, a mediation committee is meeting in Parliament. The government is confident that the Parliament will finally approve the reform on Thursday; the Senate has already agreed. The strikers, on the other hand, continue to hope that they will be able to stop the reform plans at the last minute.