Negative wealth shock linked to increased risk of dementia in older adults

by Eric W. Dolan
December 26, 2023
in Dementia


Researchers have found a significant link between severe financial loss and an increased risk of cognitive decline and dementia among older adults in the United States. This large-scale study, focusing on adults over 50, suggests that experiencing a major financial setback could accelerate cognitive aging. The findings are published in JAMA Network Open.

With over 50 million individuals worldwide diagnosed with dementia in 2019, and projections suggesting a tripling of this number by 2050, understanding the potential risk factors for dementia is more crucial than ever. Prior research has indicated that socioeconomic factors, including wealth and income, play a significant role in the onset and progression of dementia.

However, the specific impact of sudden and significant financial loss, known as negative wealth shock, had not been thoroughly investigated. This study aimed to fill that gap, providing insights into how financial stress affects cognitive health and dementia risk.

Conducted using data from the Health and Retirement Study, a long-standing project tracking various aspects of the lives of U.S. residents over 50, this study involved 8,082 participants. The average age of participants was 63.7 years, with an almost equal distribution between men and women. The majority of the participants were White, with a smaller proportion being Black and other races.

The researchers assessed the participants’ wealth status, including assets and debts, and defined negative wealth shock as a loss of 75% or more in total wealth between two consecutive interviews. Cognitive function was measured using a modified Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status, which involves tests like immediate and delayed recall, serial subtraction, and counting backward. Dementia cases were identified based on these cognitive scores.

The researchers found that individuals who experienced a negative wealth shock had a higher likelihood of cognitive decline and developing dementia compared to those who maintained stable financial status. This correlation was particularly pronounced in individuals under the age of 65 and among White participants, indicating that age and race may play roles in how financial stress impacts cognitive health.

The risk of developing dementia was also higher in the negative wealth shock and asset poverty groups. Additionally, the study’s sensitivity analysis, which accounted for genetic factors and varying definitions of negative wealth shock, supported the consistency of these findings.

Overall, this study underscores the potential impact of financial health on cognitive well-being, particularly highlighting the implications of sudden financial losses. It suggests that financial stability and support may be important factors in dementia prevention strategies, especially for those who are middle-aged or older. These insights add a crucial dimension to our understanding of dementia risk factors, pointing to the intersection of economic and health-related challenges faced by aging populations.

Future research is needed to confirm these findings and to explore potential intervention strategies. Further studies could focus on understanding the specific causes of negative wealth shock and their direct impact on cognitive health. Investigating the mechanisms through which financial stress affects the brain and exploring ways to mitigate these effects could also be valuable areas of research.

“The findings of this cohort study suggest that an experience of negative wealth shock was associated with accelerated cognitive decline and elevated risks of dementia among the middle-aged and older US adults. The negative wealth shock–associated dementia risks were more apparent among White participants and those who were younger. Further prospective and interventional studies are warranted to confirm our findings,” the researchers concluded.

The study, “Negative Wealth Shock and Cognitive Decline and Dementia in Middle-Aged and Older US Adults“, was authored by Liulu Pan, Bin Gao, Junpeng Zhu, and Jing Guo.

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UK

Labour slammed for 'drawing up new Rwanda plan', as Starmer aims to wards off Tory immigration criticism

26 December 2023

Starmer is said to be drawing up a revised Rwanda plan. Picture: Getty

By Kit Heren

@yung_chuvak

Labour has been criticised for drawing up a "legally watertight" Rwanda plan for asylum seekers as an alternative to the Conservatives' proposal

Labour's plan would see migrants having asylum claims processed overseas, with successful applicants then allowed to come to the UK, according to a report in the Times.

Sir Keir has previously dismissed the Conservatives' bid to deport some asylum seekers to Rwanda as a "gimmick" and made clear his party's opposition to the concept.

Zoe Gardner, an independent immigration expert, said Labour's proposal was "disappointing".

She told LBC's Matthew Wright on Tuesday: "I think a lot of people will wake up and see this proposal from Labour and be hugely dispirited, because they're hoping to be able to vote for an alternative to the failed narratives of cruelty, hostility and rejection that have brought us to this chaos under the Tories.

Read more: Rwanda ‘laughing all the way to the bank’ as £290m cost of scheme could have paid for 400,000 asylum claims

Read more: Talks with airlines to take migrants to Rwanda have not started, James Cleverly admits

Keir Starmer. Picture: Getty

"And it looks like at this point Labour's thinking that they're going to offer us a bit more of the same, and that absolutely won't work.

"There's no evidence to support the kind of proposals they are making. And they're based fundamentally on flawed narratives about the fact that we should or could reject and get rid of and prevent asylum seekers who need protection and need solutions from making journeys in order to find that at will never happen.

She added: "What a competent and an honest Labour government would do is level with the public and say: 'There will always be a certain number of people who seek safety in the UK.

"We will make it work, we will make it safe. We will make sure that our communities are supported in order to receive people.

"That would be the honest thing to do. And this is really disappointing. It looks like Labour's going in the wrong direction this morning."

The Scottish National Party also criticised reports of the Labour policy.

SNP Home Affairs spokesperson Alison Thewliss MP said: "The SNP is clear offshoring our fellow human beings is inhumane and immoral. The Labour Party should be ruling out Rwanda-style plans, not helping to enable them."

She also claimed that Sir Keir was "dancing to the Tory tune".

Are Labour ready for government in 2024?

It comes as the government seeks to bring a revised Rwanda plan into law, having passed a vote earlier this month.

Sir Keir has previously suggested that he would not be opposed to processing asylum seeker claims overseas, although explicit support for an offshoring scheme would still mark a significant shift for Labour.

The Labour leader said: "Other countries around the world do have schemes where they divert people on the way and process them elsewhere. That's a different kind of scheme.

"And, look, I'll look at any scheme that might work," he told reporters after a speech in Buckinghamshire.

Labour has been contacted for comment about the report, which claims that the party has drawn up "three tests" for any such scheme - that it is cost-effective, credible enough to deter migrants, and would avoid the legal challenges that have delayed the Rwanda plan.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Home Secretary James Cleverly are hoping fresh legislation, currently in the Commons, will be enough to revive the flagship policy after it was declared unlawful by the Supreme Court earlier this year.

Andrew Marr challenges Immigration Minister Tom Pursglove over the Rwanda plan

According to The Times a Labour "red line" would be any scheme that would automatically block migrants being granted asylum in the UK, with British officials also required to be in charge of processing claims.

This is not the first time the party has looked at such an approach.

In the early 2000s, Lord Blunkett and the Blair government were believed to be in talks with Tanzania about the possibility of housing asylum seekers in the country while claims were processed in the UK.

Lord Blunkett told the paper: "What's absolutely crucial is who is doing the processing and that they're allowed back into the country. Without it, you're merely transferring the problem on to somebody else. But if British officials are doing the processing, then you've got a scheme that fits with the conventions."

It comes as Sir Keir and his frontbench team enter a crucial period, with a general election likely to be less than 12 months away.

The Conservatives have sought to make tackling illegal migration a crunch issue, with stopping the boats one of Mr Sunak's "five priorities".

AI death calculator can predict when you'll die... with eerie accuracy

Researchers analyzed data from 6 million people in Denmark, looking at factors like income, profession and if they've broken a bone.



By Elina Tarkazikis
Dec 21, 2023

Artificial intelligence can help provide plenty of answers, even to things you may not want to know.

An AI death calculator can now tell you when you’ll die — and it’s eerily accurate.

The tool, called Life2vec, can predict life expectancy based on its study of data from 6 million Danish people. Findings were published in a study titled "Using sequences of life-events to predict human lives" in the journal Nature.

"We use the technology behind ChatGPT (something called transformer models) to analyze human lives by representing each person as the sequence of events that happens in their life," Sune Lehmann, a lead author in the study, told the New York Post.

Predictions are based on factors like income, profession, and medical records. The tool can also determine how much money you'll have when your time comes.

Researchers analyzed aspects of a person’s life story between 2008 and 2016, with the model seeking patterns in the data. Then, they used the algorithm to determine whether someone had died by 2020.

The Life2vec model made predictions with 78% accuracy.

Characteristics like higher income and holding a leadership role lead to longer lifespans, while habits like smoking can shorten it. The tool also takes into account things like exercise habits and mental health.

Aspects of someone’s life were given a code; for example, S52 indicates a forearm break, 072 indicates a postpartum hemorrhage and POS3513 means someone is a computer systems technician.

So far, Life2vec has been tested on a group of individuals between the ages of 35 and 65 in Denmark, half of whom have died.

The tool is not yet available to the public.

The right to protest is under threat in Britain

Hundreds of environmental activists were arrested for peaceful demonstrations in the U.K., where tough new laws undermine a pillar of democracy.

Frank Augstein / AP

By AP via Scripps News
 Dec 26, 2023

For holding a sign outside a courthouse reminding jurors of their right to acquit defendants, a retiree faces up to two years in prison. For hanging a banner reading "Just Stop Oil" off a bridge, an engineer got a three-year prison sentence. Just for walking slowly down the street, scores of people have been arrested.

They are among hundreds of environmental activists arrested for peaceful demonstrations in the U.K., where tough new laws restrict the right to protest.

The Conservative government says the laws prevent extremist activists from hurting the economy and disrupting daily life. Critics say civil rights are being eroded without enough scrutiny from lawmakers or protection by the courts. They say the sweeping arrests of peaceful demonstrators, along with government officials labeling environmental activists extremists, mark a worrying departure for a liberal democracy.

"Legitimate protest is part of what makes any country a safe and civilized place to live," said Jonathon Porritt, an ecologist and former director of Friends of the Earth, who joined a vigil outside London's Central Criminal Court to protest the treatment of demonstrators.

"The government has made its intent very clear, which is basically to suppress what is legitimate, lawful protest and to use every conceivable mechanism at their disposal to do that."


A patchwork democracy

Britain is one of the world's oldest democracies, home of the Magna Carta, a centuries-old Parliament and an independent judiciary. That democratic system is underpinned by an "unwritten constitution" — a set of laws, rules, conventions and judicial decisions accumulated over hundreds of years.

The effect of that patchwork is "we rely on self-restraint by governments," said Andrew Blick, author of "Democratic Turbulence in the United Kingdom" and a political scientist at King's College London. "You hope the people in power are going to behave themselves."

But what if they don't? During three turbulent and scandal-tarnished years in office, Boris Johnson pushed prime ministerial power to the limits. More recently, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has asked Parliament to overrule the U.K. Supreme Court, which blocked a plan to send asylum-seekers to Rwanda.

Such actions have piled pressure on Britain's democratic foundations. Critics say cracks have appeared.

As former Conservative justice minister David Lidington put it: "The 'good chap' theory of checks and balances has now been tested to destruction."


Government takes aim at protesters

The canaries in the coal mine of the right to protest are environmental activists who have blocked roads and bridges, glued themselves to trains, splattered artworks with paint, sprayed buildings with fake blood, doused athletes in orange powder and more to draw attention to the threats posed by climate change.


The protesters, from groups such as Extinction Rebellion, Just Stop Oil and Insulate Britain, argue that civil disobedience is justified by a climate emergency that threatens humanity’s future.

Sunak has called the protesters “selfish” and “ideological zealots,” and the British government has responded to the disruption with laws constraining the right to peaceful protest. Legal changes made in 2022 created a statutory offense of “public nuisance,” punishable by up to 10 years in prison, and gave police more powers to restrict protests judged to be disruptive.

It was followed by the 2023 Public Order Act, which broadened the definition of “serious disruption,” allowing police to search demonstrators for items including locks and glue. It imposes penalties of up to 12 months in prison for protesters who block “key infrastructure,” defined widely to include roads and bridges.

The government said it was acting to “protect the law-abiding majority’s right to go about their daily lives.” But Parliament’s cross-party Joint Human Rights Committee warned that the changes would have “a chilling effect on the right to protest.”

Days after the new act took effect in May, six anti-monarchist activists were arrested before the coronation of King Charles III before they had so much as held up a “Not My King” placard. All were later released without charge.


In recent months the pace of protests and the scale of arrests has picked up, partly as a result of a legal tweak that criminalized slow walking, a tactic adopted by protesters to block traffic by marching at low speed along roads. Hundreds of Just Stop Oil activists have been detained by police within moments of starting to walk.

Some protesters have received prison sentences that have been called unduly punitive.

Structural engineer Morgan Trowland was one of two Just Stop Oil activists who scaled the Queen Elizabeth II Bridge over the River Thames near London in October 2022, forcing police to shut the highway below for 40 hours. He was sentenced to three years in prison for causing a public nuisance. Judge Shane Collery said the tough sentence was “both for the chaos you caused and to deter others from seeking to copy you.”

He was released early on Dec. 13, having spent a total of 14 months in custody.

Ian Fry, the United Nations’ rapporteur for climate change and human rights, wrote to the British government in August over the stiff sentences, calling the anti-protest law a “direct attack on the right to the freedom of peaceful assembly.” Michel Forst, the U.N. special rapporteur on environmental defenders, in October called the British laws “terrifying.”

The Conservative government has dismissed the criticism.

“Those who break the law should feel the full force of it,” Sunak said in response.

Even more worrying, some legal experts say, is the “justice lottery” facing arrested protesters. Half the environmentalists tried by juries have been acquitted after explaining their motivations, including nine women who smashed a bank’s windows with hammers and five activists who sprayed the Treasury with fake blood from a firehose.

But at some other trials, judges have banned defendants from mentioning climate change or their reasons for protesting. Several defendants who defied the orders have been jailed for contempt of court.

Tim Crosland, a former government lawyer turned environmental activist, said it’s “Kafkaesque if people are on trial and they’ve got a gag around their mouth.”

“That feels like something that happens in Russia or China, not here,” he said.

To highlight concern about such judges' orders, retired social worker Trudi Warner sat outside Inner London Crown Court in March holding a sign reading “Jurors – You have an absolute right to acquit a defendant according to your conscience.” She was arrested and later informed by the solicitor-general that she would be prosecuted for contempt of court, which is punishable by up to two years in prison. Britain has strict contempt laws intended to protect jurors from interference.

Since then, hundreds more people have held similar signs outside courthouses to protest a charge they say undermines the foundations of trial by jury. Two dozen of the “Defend Our Juries” protesters have been interviewed by police, though so far no one apart from Warner has been charged.

Porritt said the aim is “to bring it to people’s attention that there is now this assault on the judicial process and on the rights of jurors to acquit according to their conscience."

Inflation did little to dampen consumer holiday spending, data finds

New data from Mastercard indicates that a strong job market helped consumer spending during the holiday season.

Mark Lennihan/AP

By Justin Boggs
 Dec 26, 2023

New data from Mastercard showed consumer spending largely kept up with inflation during the holidays.

According to Mastercard, consumer spending grew 3.1% during the 2023 holiday season compared to the same time in 2022. Spending at restaurants jumped 7.8%, while expenditures on apparel grew 2.4% and grocery spending increased 2.1%. Electronic spending had a 0.4% drop during this holiday season, while jewelry expenditures declined by 2%.

The data largely reflected changes in inflation. According to the latest consumer price index, inflation rose 3.1% for the 12-month period ending in November. Food consumed away from home increased 5.3% in the last year, while food at home jumped 3.3%.

Apparel costs rose 1.1% in the last year. Jewelry prices increased by 2%, while video and audio products decreased by 5.5%, according to the consumer price index.

Mastercard indicated it was another strong holiday season for retailers as the U.S. maintained an unemployment rate below 4% since January.

"This holiday season, the consumer showed up, spending in a deliberate manner," said Michelle Meyer, chief economist with the Mastercard Economics Institute, in a press release. "The economic backdrop remains favorable with healthy job creation and easing inflation pressures, empowering consumers to seek the goods and experiences they value most."

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The data also was particularly strong for online commerce. Retail spending online increased 6.3%, while in-person spending went up a mere 2.2%.

Experts say retailers began offering holiday-related sales earlier this year, helping revenue this holiday season.

"Retailers started promotions early this season, giving consumers time to hunt for the best deals and promotions," Steve Sadove, senior adviser for Mastercard, said in a press release. "Ultimately it was about getting the most bang for your buck as consumers spent on a variety of goods and services, resurfacing spending trends from before the pandemic."

Retailers could still see a lot of traffic in the coming days. According to Sensormatic Solutions, two of the top 10 shopping days of the year will come during the week between Christmas and New Year's Day. Tuesday is expected to be the sixth-busiest shopping day of the year, while Saturday is projected to be the eighth-biggest day for shopping in 2023.

What's behind America's record-breaking credit card debt?

Total credit card debt in the U.S. passed $1 trillion this year and is continuing to climb and break 

By Lauren Magarino
 Dec 24, 2023

Inflation is cooling, but during its peak in 2023, American consumers continued to spend, with many opting to pay with credit cards.

Recent data reveals that Americans are increasingly accruing higher levels of credit card debt, reaching a record-breaking peak.

“I think the U.S. consumer is walking towards a cliff, basically. They're running out of cash; they feel a bit excess things; they've been run down quite hard,” Chris Watling, CEO at Longview Economics, told CNBC News.

According to Paulina Likos of CNBC Business News, due to increased borrowing costs, some Americans are falling behind on their credit card payments as their household budgets are being squeezed.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's third quarter report says credit card balances in the U.S. hit a record high of $1.08 trillion.

For comparison, it reached about one trillion during the great recession in 2008, and 2023 has also seen a record high jump of $154 billion compared to the year before.

Credit card debt is still below student loan debt, but the damage is still far-reaching and growing.

Credit card APRs have gone up 30% over the last year and a half. That's the yearly interest rate consumers will pay if they carry some balance on the card.

Through December 2023, the APR for a new credit card was at nearly 23%, and households are increasingly becoming delinquent on their credit cards, meaning they are at least 90 days overdue on payments.

The rate of becoming delinquent on a credit card date reached its highest since the end of 2011.

“72% of Americans plan to increase their discretionary spending when they get a raise if you're saddled with credit card debt, if you're saddled with student loan debt, if you're having to, you know, pay more a month in bills, that could ultimately impact your lack of financial security too,” said Sarah Foster, a Bankrate analyst.

The amount of debt owed on a credit card and your ability to pay it are two of the biggest factors impacting a person's credit score.

There can be many reasons that factor into the rising dependence on using credit to make payments.

Digitized spending and e-commerce make it easier to spend than ever. And in a tough economy, paying with credit can often be a lifeline for households that can't afford to pay for something immediately.


But it can be hard for many consumers to track how much money is actually being spent, especially as they navigate through fees for things like minimum payment requirements or changing APRs.

According to a survey by the financial management service Quicken, a little over a third of respondents said they expect to max out on at least one credit card by the end of the year.

Nearly 40% are living paycheck to paycheck and say they don't see a way to pay off the debt at all.

There are some services to help consumers climb out of the credit card debt hole, even those facing multiple delinquencies and maxed-out cards.

Non-profit debt management companies can help consumers navigate their options. One major one is consolidating multiple debts into a manageable monthly payment.

"My debt management payment right now is a single monthly payment of $1,031,” said Matt Solomon, who used a debt management service. "I don't have to worry about, you know, when is this credit card due? When is this due? And it just feels—it's such an accomplishment."

Other experts stress taking control of budgets before the credit gets out of hand, recommending consumers try to limit their spending with credit cards more carefully.

"Just writing it out, making sure that you can visually see your debt and truly show what that looks like as opposed to 'I think I owe this and I think I owe that' that actually adds more stress to everything,” said Rocio Smith, Market President for Achieva Credit Union in Hillsborough County.

Making the money you spend but can't see a realistic threat to financial freedom.

Sacred Stewardship: The Moral Imperative of Religious Leaders in Climate Advocacy

Religious traditions, often regarded as moral compasses, carry a unique capacity to inspire and mobilize communities towards environmental stewardship.

BYDR.KRISTIAN ALEXANDER
DECEMBER 14, 2023

A general view of the session on ‘Farmers and Traditional Producers’ during the UN Climate Change Conference COP28 at Expo City, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. COP28/Christophe Viseux

As world leaders, delegates and visitors embarked on the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, the intersection of climate change and religion featured prominently. This gathering of global leaders provided an unparalleled platform for religious institutions to amplify their advocacy for urgent and meaningful action on climate change.

Religious traditions, often regarded as moral compasses, carry a unique capacity to inspire and mobilize communities towards environmental stewardship. COP 28 offered an opportunity for faith leaders to elevate their voices, emphasizing the moral imperatives embedded within their teachings and calling for a collective response to the climate crisis.

Historically, religious institutions were often perceived as silent on matters of environmental concern. However, the realities of climate change have sparked a re-examination of sacred texts and doctrines, prompting a renewed focus on humanity’s moral responsibility to protect the Earth.

Many religious traditions, including Christianity, Islam, Buddhism, Hinduism, and indigenous spiritualities, share a fundamental principle: the Earth is not just a resource but a sacred trust. In Christianity, the notion of stewardship, the responsibility to care for God’s creation, resonates strongly. The Evangelical tradition has also witnessed a growing movement known as Creation Care, advocating for a proactive role in environmental conservation.

Within Islamic teachings, believers are considered stewards of the Earth, emphasizing ethical treatment and responsible use of resources. Buddhism, with its emphasis on interconnectedness, inspires a reverence for all living beings, fostering a sense of responsibility for the environment. Hinduism’s sacred landscapes and the principle of ahimsa, or non-violence, guide believers toward sustainable practices.

One significant player in this intersection is Pope Francis, who has consistently championed environmental consciousness within the Catholic Church. The upcoming conference presents an ideal forum for the Pope to renew his call for global cooperation and sustainable practices. The moral authority of religious figures can act as a bridge between diverse nations and communities, fostering a shared commitment to preserving our planet.

Pope Francis, in particular, has been a vocal proponent of environmental consciousness. His 2015 encyclical, “Laudato Si,” boldly addresses the ecological crisis as a moral issue that demands urgent attention. In this landmark document, the Pope emphasizes the interconnectedness of all creation and the obligation of humans to care for the environment as stewards of God’s gift.

The encyclical calls for a profound shift in attitudes, urging the faithful to recognize the environmental degradation caused by human activity. Pope Francis critiques consumerism and a “throwaway culture,” calling for a collective commitment to sustainable living. His message goes beyond theological discourse, extending an invitation to people of all faiths and those with no religious affiliation to join hands in safeguarding the planet.

The Catholic Church’s engagement with climate change is not limited to rhetoric. Pope Francis has made substantial strides toward greening Vatican City, installing solar panels and committing to carbon neutrality. These actions reflect a tangible commitment to the principles outlined in “Laudato Si” and serve as a model for other religious institutions.

The 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) offered various platforms and hosted several events for religious institutions and leaders to partake in.

The Faith Pavilion at COP28 was a key platform for religious engagement, providing opportunities for faith leaders to call for climate action and engage in discussions on the ethical responsibilities of faith leaders in addressing the climate crisis.

Additionally, the COP28 Presidency designed a series of interfaith initiatives, including the Confluence of Conscience, a global summit for faith leaders, to collectively address the findings of the Global Stocktake and sign a declaration to progress climate action at COP28.

The Interfaith Coordination Group on Climate Change served as a coordination hub for collaborative interfaith engagement towards COP28. Furthermore, the Talanoa Interfaith Gathering at COP28 will offer a platform for faith communities attending COP28 to share their initiatives, concerns, and hopes in their work for climate justice under a Talanoa dialogue framework. The Talanoa dialogue framework, originating from indigenous Fijian culture, is a method of problem-solving and decision-making that encourages participants to address three key questions: “Where are we? Where do we want to go? How do we get there?”. This gathering provided an opportunity for participants to engage in small-group Talanoa dialogues, an interfaith spiritual service, and a shared meal for those attending in person.

Despite these promising developments, several challenges remain in fully harnessing the potential of religious institutions to influence the outcome of COP28 and beyond. One key obstacle lies in the diverse perspectives within religious communities. While many faiths embrace environmental responsibility, others may hold different interpretations of scripture and theological views on the environment. This diversity may lead to internal disagreements and hinder unified action. Additionally, religious institutions themselves may face internal challenges in implementing sustainable practices within their own communities and overcoming resistance from traditionalist segments of their membership.

Furthermore, religious communities often lack the technical expertise and resources necessary to effectively engage in complex climate negotiations. Building capacity within faith-based organizations and fostering collaboration with scientific and advocacy groups is crucial for amplifying their voices at COP28 and ensuring their participation in policy discussions. Additionally, navigating the complex geopolitical landscape of international climate negotiations can be challenging for religious actors unfamiliar with the intricacies of international diplomacy.

Despite these obstacles, the presence and influence of religious communities at COP28 were undeniable. By building bridges between diverse faiths, investing in capacity building, and amplifying their voices, religious actors can play a pivotal role in shaping the global conversation on climate change and driving meaningful action. COP28 presented a unique opportunity for faith to transcend its traditional boundaries and become a powerful force for positive change in the fight against climate change.


Dr.Kristian Alexander is a Researcher at TRENDS Research & Advisory and an adviser at Gulf State Analytics, a Washington-based geopolitical risk consultancy. He has worked as an Assistant Professor at the College of Humanities and Social Sciences at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi, UAE. Dr. Alexander’s papers have been published by numerous outlets, such as the Middle East Institute, The Arab Gulf States Institute (AGSIW), International Policy Digest, International Institute for the Middle East, and Balkan Studies (IFIMES), Inside Arabia, and Fair Observer. His research examines social movements in the Middle East and security-related issues, with a particular interest in migration in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

DEI WOKE MILITARY

Israel’s Ro’im Rachok: A Positive Example of Neurodiversity for other World Militaries?

The greatest significance of Ro’im Rachok is that it reconsiders typical qualifying (or disqualifying) factors for service that exist among the militaries of the world.

“Roim Rachok highlights the personal and collective significance of belonging for people on the autism spectrum.” 

BYADAM ARTHUR
NOVEMBER 13, 2023

Photo by Levi Meir Clancy on Unsplash


Ro’im Rachok (translated as “looking ahead”), an Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) program that recruits individuals on the Autism Spectrum, is one of the more thought-provoking initiatives within Israel’s military. Specifically, the program provokes discussion over its relevance to the policies of other world militaries. Is Ro’im Rachok a positive example, or is it laced with significant problems?

The greatest significance of Ro’im Rachok is that it reconsiders typical qualifying (or disqualifying) factors for service that exist among the militaries of the world. According to the program’s website, “Roim Rachok highlights the personal and collective significance of belonging for people on the autism spectrum.” In a country such as Israel that practices mandatory conscription, military service is an important aspect of cultural and national “belonging.” The Israeli government therefore recognizes that it is unwise to exclude a capable portion of the population from mandatory military service on the grounds solely of demographic factors. In terms of capabilities, Ro’im Rachok’s website states as its premise that it “is based on the idea that people on the autistic spectrum are very visually-oriented, and many of them are patient and have the ability to focus on details that this work requires”. As such, volunteers for this program engage in significant amounts of remote GEOINT (Geospatial Intelligence) collection and analysis.

This reflects an understanding on the part of the Israeli government that – contrary to the old adage of “war never changes” – war does indeed change, as does warfighting. Throughout the centuries and in different parts of the world, warriors have been drawn variously from aristocratic martial castes, bandits or mercenaries who gained legitimacy by serving various powerful individuals, all-volunteer armies, slaves raised as soldiers, and hapless conscripts thrown into the fray. Thus, the art and science of war are in a constant state of evolution.

At present, the major shift in progress is one from kinetic to non-kinetic forms of warfare. Israel as well as many other states have slowly begun to realize the cruciality of preparedness for non-kinetic warfare. This includes energy, cyber, and information warfare (including the abuse of deepfakes and AI content to spread propaganda and disinformation). As the definition of warfighting has changed, so the must the definition of a warfighter. In many other countries, neurodiverse military volunteers or potential recruits still face an uphill battle – or, in some cases, are excluded entirely from enlistment or commissioning as officers for their country of citizenship. This topic is addressed in a 2021 article on the website Knowledge Enabled Army, in which the author, a “Mr. J.G.” makes a case similar to that on the Ro’im Rachok website.

However, other countries, such as the United States, continue to ban neurodiverse individuals (such as those with Autism and ADHD) from any form of military service. According to a 2023 Military Times article on neurodiversity in national security career fields, the Uniform Code of Military Justice (UCMJ) in the United States includes a blanket ban on Autistic individuals joining the military. This policy, however, exists in spite of examples in other world militaries of successful Autistic military personnel. One example would be the the British Naval Admiral Nick Hine, an Autistic man who remained “closeted” about his disability until he had risen through the ranks. Nick Hine, on revealing his diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder, made an argument similar the premise presented by Ro’im Rachok: specifically, advocating for the military of the United Kingdom to recognize the value of neurodiversity among its troops.

There are some areas where a program like Ro’im Rachok may be subject to criticism. One is that personnel who leave the service and are generally known by peers or potential future employers to have served in a specialty unit may face the stigma that comes with being open about a non-visible, non-physical disability. As such, a program like Ro’im Rachok faces the unpleasant potential to ghettoize its volunteers and pigeonhole them based on their diagnosed disability.

Another, more cynical line of criticism, might come from those individuals who believe that Autistic military personnel are being exploited. This line of criticism is cynical in that it suggests a lack of autonomy or free will among neurodiverse individuals. Additionally, this narrative suggests a belief that neurodiverse individuals lack an inherent sense of patriotism, or that they are incapable of feeling a genuine call to serve their country. Such sentiments may in some cases be well-meaning, but express a strong and uninformed bias against individuals who might be considered neurodiverse. This sentiment, however, has precedent among world militaries in the U.S. Marine Corps vs. Private Joshua D. Frye legal case. The text of the legal proceedings describes a typical military recruitment, and establishes a discourse that must be unpacked when discussing the topic of neurodiversity in world militaries.

Specifically, the case addresses several disciplinary incidents involving the defendant that may be read as byproducts of bullying or manipulation among colleagues who did not share the defendant’s disability. The case, however, does not suggest how Private Joshua D. Frye would have fared in an American equivalent to Israel’s Ro’im Rachok, or had he been provided by the same path and opportunities as British Admiral Nicholas Hine. Much of the case is contextually dependent, and must be considered as such. However uncomfortable, it should be mandatory reading for individuals concerned with the topic of diversity (including, but not limited to, neurodiversity) in world militaries.

While Israel often receives criticism and protests for its military actions on its doorstep, it has at the very least taken steps to ensure that there is a broad range of skills, talents, backgrounds, and demographies reflected within the ranks of its military forces. Between a program like Ro’im Rachok and the significant numbers of foreigners who volunteer for the IDF either out of strong conviction or in hopes of Israeli citizenship, Israel’s military has taken significant steps toward the future – both in terms of how war is fought, and in terms of who is fighting it.


Adam Arthur holds a graduate degree in Asian Studies from Florida State University, along with a Graduate Certificate in Intelligence Studies. He is an alumnus of internships with Horizon Intelligence and the U.S. Department of State's Virtual Student Foreign Service program. He is a regular contributor to short-term projects for Wikistrat and for United Nations Volunteers online assignments.

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The Last Oracle is the fifth book in the Sigma Force series. Release Date: July 23, 2008 Book Description: What if you could bio-engineer the next great ...

Can AIoT Replace Humans in Future Wars?

It is widely believed that the world is about to enter a new phase in the nature of war. Artificial intelligence is expected to change the course and nature of warfare.

BYSAMAN OMIDI
NOVEMBER 18, 2023

It is widely believed that the world is about to enter a new phase in the nature of war. Artificial intelligence is expected to change the course and nature of warfare, just as gunpowder, tanks, airplanes, and the atomic bomb have changed warfare in previous eras. For example, historians attributed the end of World War I to tanks and Yanks, highlighting the importance of tanks in altering the fate of the battlefield. Similarly, the use of the atomic bomb marked the end of the Second World War. Today, states are actively seeking to harness the power of artificial intelligence and Internet of Things for military advantage. AIoT, or Artificial Intelligence of Things, is a term that describes the combination of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology and the Internet of Things (IoT). AIoT involves the merging of AI technologies like machine learning, natural language processing, and data analytics with IoT devices and networks. This collaboration enables IoT devices to autonomously collect, process, analyze data, make intelligent decisions, and communicate with other devices and centralized systems with minimal human intervention.

War can impose significant stress on the human body, leaving soldiers exhausted and impairing their ability to concentrate and function effectively. This can lead to human error, compromising mission success, and resulting in significant injuries or even failure. However, with AI, soldiers can make better use of their time and energy. For example, instead of driving combat vehicles or piloting aircraft, AI could assume full control, allowing soldiers to focus their efforts elsewhere, such as analyzing data and preparing for battle. This can significantly reduce the risk of fatalities and increase the chances of mission success.

Frank Sauer of the German Metis Institute for Strategy and Foresight in Munich describes the Russia-Ukraine war as a different kind of conflict in which advanced technology plays a major role. The fact that Ukraine has been able to resist the Russian attack after early defeats is not only due to its fighting morale and continuous supply of conventional weapons but also due to the use of modern technology on the battlefield. AIoT has become so important that China has announced its intention to become the world leader in artificial intelligence by 2030. Similarly, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared, “Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.” Therefore, AIoT is a new technology that will continue to change the nature of war for years to come. According to statista, the United States had the strongest capacity for research among the leading 20 AI nations worldwide in 2023. It has a ranking of 100, compared with its nearest competitor China at just around 54. After them, Singapore, Switzerland, UK, Australia, Canada, Germany, Finland, Netherlands, Israel and South Korea.

This article conceptualizes the impact of AIoT on war in four categories: information and communication, fire control systems, cyber-attacks, and autonomous killer robots. Of course, artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things are also used in other military fields such as logistics, training, simulation, surveillance, espionage, etc., which this article does not tackle. However, the content of current article partly match with C4ISR which stands for Command, Control, Communications, Computers (C4) Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) in military terms. Finally, this article examines the limitations of artificial intelligence and whether it can replace humans or not.

Communication and Information

As strategists believe, information is considered as the arbiter of success and failure in war. Clausewitz said imperfect knowledge of the situation, inter alia, can bring military action to a standstill. Sun Tzu indicated information is inherent in warfighting. Since the beginning of Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, advanced technology companies such as Starlink, Palantir, and Maxar have played important roles in the conflict by providing facilities such as satellite mobile, satellite internet, and data analysis with the help of artificial intelligence. Clearview AI has offered its facial recognition services to Ukraine, and the Ukrainian armed forces are now using this technology to identify downed fighters and captured Russian soldiers. Additionally, Ukrainians have been able to intercept and analyze unencrypted phone calls of Russian fighters using Primer AI software.

Battlefields are extremely dangerous environments where AI can help mitigate some threats. The US military system utilizes threat detection with the help of Aided Threat Recognition from Mobile Cooperative and Autonomous Sensors (ATR-MCAS). This technology allows soldiers to identify threats more quickly and receive guidance on how to address them. Detailed data analysis can also assist in targeting opponents more effectively. By leveraging automated technology, smarter and safer decisions can be made in battle, minimizing errors. Drones and artificial intelligence are employed to accurately identify and communicate potential risks or threats, providing an advantage in preparation for attacks.

To collect effective military data, thousands, and even millions of sensors need to be implemented and developed across a wide range of platforms. Radar, video sonar, infrared technology, and RF data detection are collected by airborne sensing platforms, spy satellites, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), land and sea stations, soldiers on the battlefield, and distributed conventional ground systems (DCGS). DCGS examines and analyzes data related to the upper and lower information of the command chain. This system provides a comprehensive picture of the position and status of both friendly and enemy forces, facilitating the process of detecting positions and controlling the battle space.

The US Department of Defense plans to design Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) initiative, which aimed to connect all armed forces into a single cloud-like network so teams can quickly and seamlessly share critical data, allowing them to deploy the full force of military capabilities during current and future conflict. To perform efficiently, it will require critical decisions, operational environment data analysis, and rapid issuance of orders in future conflicts. This system collects data from thousands of devices on the battlefield through smart devices and then analyzes it using artificial intelligence and machine learning to profile the enemy and determine appropriate responses. Senior commanders can have comprehensive situational awareness of the battlefield through central operations centers that gather data from various platforms.

Fire -control system

In the past, many firearms such as artillery, cannons, mortars and even missiles did not have the necessary accuracy in targeting. But in the war in Ukraine, the parties to the conflict increased the accuracy of targeting fire bombs by using data derived from artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things. Therefore of fascinating function of AIoT is improving the accuracy of targeting firearms, thereby reducing resource wastage. Smart guns utilize data from various sensors to react quickly and achieve precise targeting. For instance, the AN/SPY-1, the United States Navy 3D radar system, can automatically track and intercept numerous targets simultaneously. Modern militaries worldwide have made significant investments in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to engage high-value enemy targets. These weapons have been repeatedly used in conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine and Houthis-Saudi Arabia wars. The US ground station pilots operate Predator drones using the cameras and sensors on board, providing them with a virtual cockpit experience. By combining the sensors on the aircraft and the information obtained from the DCGS (Distributed Common Ground System), the Predator identifies its targets and engages them using Hellfire missiles and laser guidance. Furthermore, the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) features two-way satellite communication, enabling the missile to be redirected toward a new target. As the missile progresses toward its target, the camera installed on it transmits relevant battle scene videos to commandos who can assign new targets. TLAM can also be deployed to attack predetermined targets or use updated GPS coordinates for its strike.

Cyber-attack

In 2010, centrifuges at an Iranian nuclear facility in Natanz were hijacked by a cyberweapon built and used by the United States and Israel. Over the course of a year, the cyberweapon, called Stuxnet, was used to manipulate Iranian nuclear equipment, and later, to destroy part of the facilities. Just imagine this kind attacks is executed frequently by artificial Intelligence. To use artificial intelligence to carry out sophisticated cyber-attacks is a daunting prospect, because we still don’t know what capabilities such attacks will have. The most significant AI-based attack we’ve seen to date is the use of AI-powered of a massive DDoS botnet made up of a slave network of hijacked home and office routers. However, we are likely to see much more sophisticated attacks in the future. AI-powered software can learn what kinds of approaches work best and adapt its attack methods accordingly. They can use information feeds as well as system scans to quickly identify software vulnerabilities. AI-based attacks can work around the clock unlike humans. They are also fast, efficient, cost-effective and compatible. Artificial intelligence can also help in cyber defense. Due to the high capabilities of artificial intelligence in analyzing data and identifying patterns, this technology helps military forces to quickly and accurately identify cyber-attacks and counter them. Also, artificial intelligence helps the military to automatically update their security systems and resist cyber-attacks. In this way, military forces can protect their information against cyber-attacks and be stable against their enemies through the use of artificial intelligence.

​Killer robots: flying, walking and swimming

Killer robots are autonomous robotic systems capable of selecting and attacking targets without the intervention of a human operator. While in some of these systems the initial command to attack is given by a human and then the robot has a degree of independent “choice” to act, some countries are experimenting with achieving killer robot technology without human intervention. In this technology, the decision to deploy lethal force is left to artificial intelligence. Such a massive development would fundamentally change future warfare. The automatic target selection and attack function can be applied to various platforms such as battle tanks, fighter jets, or ships. Another term used to describe these weapons is Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS). Gen. Robert Cone has predicted that a quarter of the US military will be robotic by 2030, making the military smaller, deadlier, and more agile. The use of robots and automated systems for unmanned ground vehicles, robotic exoskeletons, and even autonomous combat systems in warfare can reduce risks to human soldiers and increase battlefield capabilities. You can fly a drone with an infrared sensor over a minefield – do it in the evening, when the sun has been shining all day and the mines are warmer than the soil around them. You can then identify individual mines in this location. The infrared image detects and maps mines.

Drone could change the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in favor of Baku in the late 2020. Drones filled the skies and devastated enemy territory without the need for large numbers of infantry, tanks, or any significant ground presence. Drones carry bombs and missiles and are controlled or programmed to deliver munitions for an intended attack in a specific area. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has unveiled the SeaBaby, a floating drone with hundreds of kilograms of explosives allegedly used in attacks on the Crimean Bridge and a Russian warship. The Protector robot is an unmanned vehicle designed and created by Israel, currently patrolling in the Mediterranean and around the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, controlled from a remote ground station. Its advantages include high maneuverability without crew, carrying out a wide range of missions such as coastal patrolling and penetration with minimum visibility. These unmanned boats can also carry cargo, cameras, sensors, and weapons. The remote control range of this boat is up to 10 miles.

Additionally, South Korea has built independent combat robots using the Samsung SGR-1 model, capable of identifying targets up to a distance of four kilometers during the day and two kilometers during the night. These robots will replace human soldiers along the 250-kilometer border with North Korea, one of the most turbulent border regions in the world. They can continuously protect major military bases in unfavorable geographical conditions.

The Guardium robot is an unmanned ground vehicle designed and built by the Israeli army. This robot is able to move soldiers in dangerous situations and reduce casualty rates. It has night vision capabilities and can carry up to 660 pounds. Guardium can be equipped with cameras, night vision equipment, and combat gear such as machine guns and sensors. The robot’s cameras rotate 360 degrees at all times, and when they detect something suspicious, they alert the operator in the control room. This robot is programmed to navigate between cities, disregarding road signs, traffic, and intersections.

More eye catching and also dangerous is launching the 103 Perdix or swarm drones by the US Strategic Capabilities Office in October 2013, which can navigate across a battlefield without human intervention. This technology has raised concerns about the potential for autonomous weapon swarms to become weapons of mass destruction without human control when were released.

Limitations of artificial intelligence

Of course, AIoT also has its disadvantages. With AIoT, it is easy to create fake images and videos, spread false information about authorities and the safety of cities, and create disruptions in societal security and public perception. This misinformation and rumors can have a destructive effect, particularly on soldiers. Using AIoT in warfare involves sending and receiving sensitive data, which can jeopardize system security if the enemy infiltrates the network. Moreover, AI can only analyze data that is within its memory, and in unexpected situations, it may struggle to react accurately and swiftly. Users may also make mistakes in data entry, leading the system to act based on incorrect information.

The construction and maintenance of AI systems involve complex engineering processes, resulting in significant costs. AI-based software applications require frequent upgrades to adapt to the changing environment and become smarter over time. While machines may be more efficient than humans in certain tasks, they cannot entirely replace humans. Machines lack the ability to modify their responses in response to changing environments. Whenever there is a change in the input, AI systems must be re-evaluated, re-trained, and re-engineered.

Furthermore, AI -based machines are incapable of making decisions or discerning between moral right and wrong, as they lack an understanding of the concept of morality. AI is not designed for creative work, highlighting that imagination and creativity are not within the realm of AI capabilities since they are machines. Just as you can create infinite words and sentences by combining the letters of the alphabet, humans can use countless new tactics on the battlefield that are far from the known data of artificial intelligence. Therefore, tools related to artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things cannot completely replace humans in the future military conflicts; rather, they serve as useful and effective tools in conjunction with human involvement and make themselves update with passing of time.

This article was written with the consultation of Professor Ali Omidi, University of Isfahan-Iran


Saman Omidi
Writer on AI and BSc in Computer Engineering from University of Isfahan-Iran.