It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Wednesday, May 03, 2023
Asia still needs 55 years to eliminate child marriage: UN
UNITED NATIONS: South Asia leads global reductions in child marriage but still needs 55 years to eliminate the practice if it does not speed up the pace, says a UN report released on Wednesday.
To meet the UN target of eliminating child marriage by 2030; South Asia needs to accelerate the pace of reforms by seven times, says the report released by the UN Children’s Fund (Unicef).
Within South Asia, Pakistan is third in reductions, behind Maldives and Sri Lanka but ahead of India, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Nepal and Bhutan. About 18 per cent women in Pakistan are still married in childhood, which is slightly better than the global average of 19pc.
According to the statistics released on Wednesday, Pakistan still has nearly 19 million child brides as 1 in 6 young women in the country are married in childhood. The minimum legal age for marriage in Pakistan is 18 but about 18pc of girls are married before 18. The age gap between a child bride and her groom is often between 40 to 60 years. At 51pc, Bangladesh has the highest rate of child marriages in South Asia. Maldives has the lowest, only two per cent.
India is home to the largest number of women who married in childhood. One in three child bride lives in India. There are about 34pc women in India who married in childhood. The majority of Indian women married in childhood, gave birth as adolescents.
South Asia leads the world in progress on reducing child marriage. Yet, one in four young women in South Asia were first married or were in union before their 18th birthday.
The region is home to around 290 million child brides, accounting for 45 per cent of the global total. Levels of child marriage vary considerably across the region, from over 50pc in Bangladesh to 2pc in the Maldives.
In Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh child brides are more likely to report that wife-beating is justified, and they often experience such violence themselves.
In Pakistan, 55pc of child brides say that wife-beating is justified. In India, 41pc say the same thing. Thirty-three per cent and 28pc in Bangladesh also justify wife-beating. Child brides in South Asia are more likely to live in poor households, have less education and reside in rural areas.
Three in four child brides in the region give birth while they are still adolescents. The vast majority of child brides in South Asia are out of school.
Unicef, however, also reports that the practice of child marriage has continued to decline globally, driven predominantly by a decline in India, which is still home to the largest number of child brides worldwide.
Progress is also evident in other contexts, including in populous countries where the practice has historically been common, such as Bangladesh and Ethiopia. Some smaller countries, such as Maldives and Rwanda, are moving closer to elimination.
Commenting on the good news, Unicef observed that “the experiences of these countries illustrate that progress is possible in a variety of settings.”
But the UN agency warned that a ‘polycrisis’ — of war, climate shocks, and the Covid pandemic — threatens the fragile gains made towards ending the scourge.
Published in Dawn, May 4th, 2023
India drops below Pakistan in press freedom rankings
KARACHI: The acquisition of media by wealthy businessmen closely aligned with political leaders and harassment of critical sources and reporters by supporters of the government has led Reporters Without Borders (RSF) to downgrade India’s press freedom ranking.
As per the 2023 World Press Freedom Index, released by RSF on World Press Freedom day, Pakistan now occupies the 150th position out of 180 countries and territories, 11 spots higher than neighbouring India, which comes in at 161.
“The violence against journalists, the politically partisan media and the concentration of media ownership all demonstrate that press freedom is in crisis in ‘the world’s largest democracy’,” it said.
In the rankings for 2022, it was India that was ranked 150, while Pakistan came in at 157.
“Asia’s one-party regimes and dictatorships are the ones that constrict journalism the most, with leaders tightening their totalitarian stranglehold on the public discourse,” the report notes, singling out North Korea (180th), China (179th), Vietnam (178th), Myanmar (173rd) as some of the worst places for journalism in Asia.
However, it notes with concern the “acquisition of media outlets by oligarchs who maintain close ties with political leaders”, especially in India, “where all the mainstream media are now owned by wealthy businessmen close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi”.
The RSF report states that Modi has an army of supporters “who track down all online reporting regarded as critical of the government and wage horrific harassment campaigns against the sources. Caught between these two forms of extreme pressure, many journalists are, in practice, forced to censor themselves.”
The same trend can be found in Bangladesh (163rd), where RSF says governmental persecution of independent media has intensified in the run-up to elections that are due to be held in the coming months.
Another regional issue it highlights is the persistence of “off-limit questions and taboo subjects” that prevent journalists from working freely. “This is clearly the case in Afghanistan (152nd), where the Taliban government does not tolerate no straying from their fanatical version of Islamic law and where women journalists are in the process of being literally erased from the media landscape,” the report notes.
The RSF ranking states that overall, only 52 countries of the world can be described as providing a ‘good’ or ‘fairly good’ environment for journalism. Red lines
The change of government in Pakistan, however, is said to have “loosened constraints on the media”, even though it continues to be among the world’s most dangerous countries for journalists “with three to four murders each year that are often linked to cases of corruption or illegal trafficking and which go completely unpunished”.
Any journalist who crosses red lines is liable to be the target of in-depth surveillance that could lead to abduction and detention for varying lengths of time in the state’s prisons or less official jails, it says.
Highlighting weak protections for journalists, the report notes that the Protection of Journalists and Media Professionals Act, passed in 2021, is conditional on reporters adopting a certain “conduct”, and those who cross the implicit lines dictated by the authorities are exposed to heavy administrative and criminal penalties — such as sedition.
Published in Dawn, May 4th, 2023
A billionaire donor gave $535,200 to Herschel Walker for his senate campaign, but it went to his personal company instead: report
The money went into a business owned by Walker that he never disclosed, The Daily Beast reported, meaning the funds couldn't be used for his campaign. AP Photo/Ben Gray
Herschel Walker put $535,200 from a billionaire donor into his company, per the Daily Beast. The billionaire, a friend of Walker's, thought the money was going to Walker's senate campaign, per the report.
But the cash instead went to Walker's personal business, HR Talent, The Daily Beast reported.
Herschel Walker, the former NFL running back who ran a failed senate campaign in Georgia, received $535,200 in political contributions that were wired to his personal company, The Daily Beast reported.
Walker received the sum meant for his 2022 senate campaign from his friend, billionaire Dennis Washington, the outlet reported on Wednesday.
Washington wired the money to Walker thinking it was a political contribution, reported The Daily Beast, citing emails between Washington's staff and Walker's campaign.
But the cash was deposited in an account for HR Talent, a firm owned by Walker that was never disclosed in his financial statements, The Daily Beast reported.
In 2014, Walker ran two talent shows in rural Georgia called "Herschel's Raw Talent," The New York Times reported.
Because the $535,200 was sitting in HR Talent, they were legally unusable for Walker's campaign. When Washington's staff learned of this, they contacted Walker asking whether the funds could be sent to a super PAC supporting the then-GOP candidate, The Daily Beast reported.
"We will need your assistance to get the prior contributions made to the HR Talent account in March corrected," Tim McHugh, executive vice president for the Washington Companies, wrote to Walker's campaign in November, according to The Daily Beast.
The Daily Beast noted that it's possible Walker could have returned the money to Washington. Insider could not immediately verify if the cash has been sent back to Washington or if it still remains in Walker's account.
After losing his 2022 senate run, Walker ended his campaign with more than $5 million in funds, NBC reported.
Representatives for Walker and Washington did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment sent outside regular business hours.
KRG ARE QUISLINGS
Iraqi Kurds in the crossfire of Turkish army, militants
By AFP Published May 3, 2023 Moustafa Ahmed shows bullet casings collected after one of the many firefights near his home - Copyright AFP SAFIN HAMED Kamal Taha
Under an almond tree in his garden, Moustafa Ahmed shows a handful of bullet casings he collected near his home in Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region.
Residents of his village in Iraq’s mountainous far north often find themselves caught in the crossfire between the Turkish army and fighters from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
“Most of the inhabitants have left,” said Ahmed, from the Kurdish village of Hiror in a green valley near the Turkish border, an area that for decades has seen fighting between the two forces.
Turkish forces hold dozens of positions on the mountain heights while PKK fighters, who are Turkish Kurds, maintain rear bases in the Iraqi territory.
“Our life has become hell, we no longer feel safe at home,” said Ahmed, aged in his 70s, who said once a shell hit the ground near his home.
Ten of Ahmed’s 12 children have left the region, he said, a cigarette between his lips.
“Out of the 50 families in the village, there are only 17 left. The others have abandoned their homes and their land for fear of the bombardments.”
Those who have stayed endure the daily roar of military planes above and the buzzing of Turkish military drones.
Armed men are nearby, “over there, on these heights,” Ahmed said, pointing to the wooded mountains surrounding Hiror.
“They see us and know what we are doing. We can no longer go to our fields or graze our animals.”
– ‘Gunfire, shrapnel, shelling’ –
The PKK, designated a “terrorist” group by Ankara and its Western allies, has since 1984 waged an insurgency in Turkey in unrest that has claimed tens of thousands of lives.
Turkish forces have long maintained military positions inside northern Iraq where they regularly launch operations against the militants.
In early April, Turkey was accused of bombarding the airport at Sulaimaniya, Iraqi Kurdistan’s second city.
Several days earlier, Ankara had halted flights to and from Sulaimaniya, citing an increased PKK presence at the airport.
In Hiror village, 60-year-old Adib Moussa was preparing to drive his pick-up truck to a nearby village that has been spared from the conflict, where he has left his cattle in the care of an acquaintance.
“This is the third year that we have seen this — Turkey entered our regions and surrounded our village,” said the moustachioed farmer with a weathered face.
“There are many houses damaged by gunfire, shrapnel or shelling,” added Moussa, a father of 10 children.
His neighbour, father of two Mahvan Ahmed, showed AFP a concrete railing riddled with bullet holes on his roof terrace.
“After dark, we hear gunshots and explosions,” said the 37-year-old.
He said he hopes that Baghdad will intervene to “solve this problem, so that the Turks leave and we can resume a normal life”. – ‘Gone forever’ –
Baghdad and Arbil, Iraqi Kurdistan’s capital, have long been accused of ignoring the situation to preserve their strategic alliances with Ankara, only offering symbolic condemnations of violations of Iraq’s sovereignty and the impact on civilians.
Turkey is one of war-battered Iraq’s main trading partners and until March Arbil was exporting oil directly to Turkey, independently of the federal government in Baghdad.
In July 2022, nine people died when artillery shells hit a recreational park in the border village of Parakh, with most of those killed holidaymakers from southern Iraq.
Iraq blamed Turkey, which denied any responsibility and accused the PKK.
Ramadan Abdallah, 70, was seriously wounded in June 2021 when an explosive struck about three metres (10 feet) from where he was standing.
He underwent three operations on his lower back and leg.
“The doctors couldn’t get some shrapnel out that had lodged in my leg, it still hurts me when it’s cold,” Abdallah said.
The burly man with a coarse beard now walks with a cane and has moved into his son’s house in Zakho, a small town nine kilometres (six miles) from the border.
The old man said he hopes for an end to the region’s troubles.
“I dream of one day closing my eyes and reopening them to see all the Turkish soldiers gone forever,” he said.
Iraqi Kurdish official accuses PKK of blocking aid to Ezidis in Sinjar
Hayri Bozani from KRG calls on UN to take action, saying organization is third party in October 2020 security agreement
Anadolu Agency Staff |04.05.2023 - Turkish Press
ERBIL, Iraq
An official from Iraq's Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) accused the PKK terrorist organization Wednesday of causing security problems in the Sinjar region, which has led to the disruption of aid delivery.
Speaking to Anadolu, Hayri Bozani from the KRG's Ministry of Religious Affairs said a security agreement signed on Oct. 9, 2020 has still not been implemented despite more than two and a half years passing.
"Families cannot return to their homes in the region because of armed groups," Bozani said.
Calling on the UN, which he said is the third party in the October 2020 agreement, to take action, he said: "We all know that the PKK is on the world's terror list."
"Terrorist groups are the biggest obstacle to security in Sinjar. I don't believe in establishing peace in the region as long as these groups exist," he added.
In October 2020, the Iraqi federal government and the KRG in northern Iraq signed an agreement to preserve security in Sinjar through the Iraqi federal security forces in coordination with the KRG Peshmerga forces.
Daesh/ISIS terrorists attacked Sinjar, a region with an Ezidi-majority population, in August 2014.
The terror group kidnapped and killed thousands of people, including women and children, or detained them in areas under its control.
The PKK terrorist organization managed to establish a foothold in Sinjar in 2014 under the pretext of protecting the Ezidi community from Daesh/ISIS terrorists.
Sinjar has a strategic position, as it is some 120 kilometers (74 miles) from Mosul and close to the Turkish-Syrian border.
BULLSHIT TROPE In its more than 35-year terror campaign against Türkiye, the PKK – listed as a terrorist organization by Türkiye, the US and the European Union – has been responsible for the deaths of over 40,000 people, including women, children and infants.
Why are California earthquakes getting more expensive?
The estimated annual cost from earthquake damage is soaring in California, and it already makes up more than half of the nation's annual earthquake costs. Los Angeles Times reporter Rong-Gong Lin II joined CBS News to discuss the possible reasons behind the increase.
George Michael and Kate Bush among Rock & Roll Hall of Fame inductees
The Cleveland-based institution has announced the artists and groups entering the hall as the class of 2023.
Missy Elliott, Willie Nelson, Sheryl Crow, Chaka Khan and the late George Michael have been inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame, with Kate Bush also finally reaching the top of that hill.
The Cleveland-based institution on Wednesday announced the artists and groups entering the hall as the class of 2023, including The Spinners, Rage Against the Machine, DJ Kool Herc, Link Wray, Al Kooper, Soul Train creator Don Cornelius and Sir Elton John’s longtime co-songwriter Bernie Taupin.
“When you can go from Link Wray, who was one of the early influencers, to Missy Elliott and Kate Bush and The Spinners and Rage Against the Machine and Willie Nelson, you have a very diverse body of work,” said Joel Peresman, president and chief executive of the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Foundation ahead of the unveiling.
Missy Elliott (PA) “What we are always trying to show is that rock ‘n’ roll is a big tent and a lot of people belong,”
Elliott, the first female rapper inducted into the Songwriters Hall of Fame, an MTV Video Vanguard Award recipient and a four-time Grammy Award winner, is the first female hip-hop artist in the rock hall, which called her “a true pathbreaker in a male-dominated genre”.
Artists must have released their first commercial recording at least 25 years beforehand to be eligible for induction. Eight out of 14 nominees were on the ballot for the first time, including Crow, Elliott, Michael and Nelson. This is the first year of eligibility for Elliott.
Bush was a nominee last year but did not make the final cut. She got in this year due to a new wave of popularity after the show Stranger Things featured her song Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God).
Kate Bush (Michael Byrne/PA)
The hall hailed her for “using lush soundscapes, radical experimentation, literary themes, sampling and theatricality to captivate audiences and inspire countless musicians”.
Michael, first as a member of Wham! and then as a solo artist, was cited for “paving the way for a generation of proud LGBTQIA+ artists, from Sam Smith to Lil Nas X to Troye Sivan” and 90-year-old Nelson was simply described as “an American institution”.
Crow was recognised for key 1990s songs like All I Wanna Do and Every Day Is A Winding Road, while Rage Against the Machine “forged brazen protest music for the modern world”.
The hall called DJ Kool Herc “a founding father of hip-hop music” who “helped create the blueprint for hip-hop”, and Chaka Khan was described as “one of the mightiest and most influential voices in music” – a “streetwise but sensual hip-hop-soul diva” who paved the way for women like Mary J Blige, Erykah Badu and Janelle Monae.
Bernie Taupin with Sir Elton John (Jennifer Graylock/PA)
The Spinners became a hit-making machine with four No 1 R&B hits in less than 18 months, including I’ll Be Around and Could It Be I’m Falling In Love. Rock guitarist Wray was said to be ahead of his time, influencing Jeff Beck, Jimmy Page, Eric Clapton, Jimi Hendrix and Bruce Springsteen.
Taupin, who made it into the Songwriters Hall of Fame in 1992 and has a Golden Globe and an Oscar for (I’m Gonna) Love Me Again from the biopic Rocketman, makes it into the rock hall 29 years after writing partner Sir Elton.
Cornelius was celebrated for creating a nationally televised platform for African American music and culture. He “became a visionary entrepreneur who opened the door — and held it open — for many others to follow him through”.
“Does a Willie Nelson fan know anything about Missy Elliott? Probably not, and vice versa,” said Mr Peresman. “But this is an opportunity for someone who is into one of these artists to take a look at it and say, ‘Gee, I love Missy Elliott’ or ‘I love Rage Against the Machine. But The Spinners, who were they? Let me check that out’. If that can open some minds and open some attitudes, then we’ve done our job.”
Nominees Iron Maiden, Cyndi Lauper, A Tribe Called Quest, The White Stripes, Warren Zevon, Joy Division/New Order and Soundgarden did not earn a spot in the hall this time.
The induction ceremony will take place November 3 at the Barclays Centre in New York City.
Nominees were voted on by more than 1,000 artists, historians and music industry professionals. Fans could vote online or in person at the museum, with the top five artists picked by the public making up a “fans’ ballot” that was tallied with the other professional ballots.
By Press Association
Missy Elliott becomes first female hip-hop artist to be inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame
By Mawunyo Gbogbo Grammy award-winning artist Missy Elliott has been inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame.(REUTERS/Mike Blake)
Referring to Missy "Misdemeanor" Elliott as "a true path breaker in a male-dominated genre", The Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Foundation has named Elliott as one of its 2023 inductees.
Key points:
Missy Elliott is the first female hip-hop artist to be inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame It was her first year of eligibility Other inductees include Kate Bush who experienced a resurgence off the back of Stranger Things
It's an honour the celebrated artist doesn't take lightly. She took to social media to acknowledge just how monumental an occasion this is saying it was "huge not for just me but all my sisters in hip hop".
By the time Elliott had released her groundbreaking debut album Supa Dupa Fly in 1997, she was already a force to be reckoned with.
She had long joined Timbaland to co-write and co-produce songs for artists such as Aaliyah and Jodeci and was already a performer and label executive.
Possessing a knack for music production, writing, rapping and singing, Elliott's first album went platinum and was nominated for a Grammy.
Her second album Da Real World was released in 1999 and stayed on the Billboard R&B chart for almost a year.
But it was perhaps with 2001's Miss E… So Addictive and the crossover dance track Get Ur Freak On when the rest of the world came to learn what hip hop heads already knew: Elliott's talent, originality and creativity make her a powerhouse across genres.
With trendsetting music videos featuring, among other things, Elliot with a retractable head and busting out dance moves that others would later adopt, Elliott's place on the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame is being welcomed by fans and peers.
YOUTUBE Get Ur Freak On by Missy Elliott official music video.
This was the first year of eligibility for Elliott. Artists need to have released their first record 25 years prior to Induction.
Fellow hip-hop royalty and 2021 inductee LL Cool J announced the 2023 inductee class, which also includes, in the Musical Influence Award category, the founding father of hip hop DJ Kool Herc, who planted a potent seed in 1973 that would grow into the enormous global force hip hop is today.
The Chairman of the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Foundation John Sykes pointed out that November's induction ceremony coincides with two milestones in music culture: the 90th birthday of Willie Nelson, who was also inducted, and the 50th anniversary of hip hop.
"This year's incredible group of Inductees reflects the diverse artists and sounds that define rock & roll," Sykes said. Kate Bush inducted after a Stranger Things resurgence, Bernie Taupin writes his way into history
English singer songwriter Kate Bush responded to her induction by expressing surprise.
"I have to admit I'm completely shocked at the news of being inducted into the Hall of Fame!," Bush wrote on her website.
"It's something I just never thought would happen."
Stranger Things introduced Kate Bush to a whole new audience.
(Supplied: katebush.com)
Bush experienced a resurgence after her 1985 hit Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God) re-entered the charts after it was featured in the Netflix sci-fi series Stranger Things.
The visionary is said to have inspired countless musicians with her radical experimentation.
Bernie Taupin, whose songwriting partnership with Elton John has produced hit after hit after hit including Rocket Man, Your Song and I'm Still Standing was inducted in the Musical Excellence Award category.
Taupin and John began collaborating in 1967 and the Foundation described their partnership as "one of the most successful in rock & roll history."
George Michael, who died in 2016, was posthumously inducted.
The 38th Annual Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony will take place on Friday, November 3 in Brooklyn, NY.
The Rock & Roll Hall of Fame 2023 Inductees
Performer Category
Kate Bush Sheryl Crow Missy Elliott George Michael Willie Nelson Rage Against the Machine The Spinners
Musical Influence Award
DJ Kool Herc Link Wray
Musical Excellence Award
Chaka Khan Al Kooper Bernie Taupin
Ahmet Ertegun Award
Don Cornelius
Indigenous leaders demand UK’s King Charles apologize for colonialism Reuters, Sydney Published: 04 May ,2023:
Indigenous leaders from a string of former British colonies on Thursday urged King Charles to swiftly apologize for “centuries of racism” and the “legacy of genocide” perpetrated by the crown. In a staunchly worded letter that could sour the build-up to this weekend’s coronation, Indigenous representatives from 12 Commonwealth nations also called for financial reparations and the return of stolen cultural treasures. The letter was signed by leaders from Australia -- where Indigenous people were massacred by British colonizers and forced off their lands -- as well as several Caribbean nations once plundered for slaves.
The group said they had banded together to help their people “recover from centuries of racism, oppression, colonialism and slavery”.
Charles has in recent years stepped up efforts to engage with Indigenous leaders, as the monarchy faces a reckoning over its links to the slave trade and the British Empire’s legacy of violence.
Although he has conceded the crown must “acknowledge the wrongs which have shaped our past”, the letter implores him to go further by offering a formal, royal apology.
Former Olympian Nova Peris, the first Aboriginal woman elected to Australia’s federal parliament, was one of the leaders to sign the letter.
A staunch critic of Australia’s ties to the royal family, Peris said it was time to “acknowledge the horrific and enduring impacts” of colonization and the “legacy of genocide” felt by many Indigenous populations.
“It’s vital for us to discuss and educate people on the truth behind colonization, during the week of the coronation,” she said.
“Conversations start with listening.”
The letter said Charles should start discussions about compensating Indigenous people, who watched as British colonizers pilfered their treasures and trashed their cultures.
Human rights expert Hannah McGlade, an Aboriginal woman from Western Australia, said reparations remained a key sticking point for many.
“We are increasingly seeing Indigenous people call for reparations from the royal family,” she told AFP.
“They really do have that history that they haven’t tackled. Genocide happened on their watch.”
The letter was also signed by representatives from Canada, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea.
Baby delivered, Thai PM candidate set to resume campaigning
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS May 4, 2023
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, right, a leading Thai politician and youngest daughter of exiled former deposed Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra, stands behind an incubator with her new born son, along with, left, her husband Pidok Sooksawas during press conference in Bangkok, Thailand, May 3. (AP Photo)
BANGKOK--A popular candidate for prime minister of Thailand said Wednesday she’s eager to get back on the campaign trail, just two days after giving birth.
Speaking at a news conference at the hospital in Bangkok where she gave birth, Paetongtarn Shinawatra said her new baby boy wouldn’t affect her ability to rally support for her Pheu Thai party with just under two weeks to go before the polls.
“I believe good things come along with children,” she said, sitting beside her husband, Pidok Sooksawas. “I believe that children are my secret power to work, and to lead everyday life.”
The newborn, Prutthasin Sooksawas, was brought into the room in a rolling incubator and displayed briefly to the media before being moved out again.
Paetongtarn is the youngest daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, the popular but divisive former prime minister who was ousted by a military coup in 2006. She’s also the niece of Yingluck Shinawatra, whose government met a similar fate eight years later.
Thaksin, who has been in self-exile since the 2006 coup, tweeted Monday after the birth that he would like permission to come home to see his grandchildren, ending the tweet with “See you soon.” He lives abroad to escape a prison term for abuse of power, a conviction he has decried as politically motivated.
Paetongtarn played down the significance of the message, saying it was just a natural expression of a grandfather who was “very happy and excited.”
Thaksin is a popular but divisive figure of Thai politics, and there has been concern that his return could be destabilizing.
“Of course, the things he said would have a political effect,” she said. “However, as a family, I think there’s nothing wrong to hope for that, especially when there’s a good thing happening to the family.”
Paetongtarn campaigned throughout her pregnancy. She and the Pheu Thai Party have consistently topped the opinion polls as Thailand’s favored prime minister candidate and next government. She took the opportunity Wednesday to underline that she was 100% confident of a landslide victory.
“I’d like to ask the Thai people to remain firm, because this vote is not like any other,” she said. “Thailand cannot just hope for the best anymore. Thailand needs change, and only the Pheu Thai Party is the best answer for the Thai people now.”
Analysts have complimented Paetongtarn on her confident public performances, though the residual popularity of her father remains a factor behind her popularity, especially among poor and working-class Thais. Thaksin, a populist billionaire, championed poor people during his years in power and reaped the benefits at election time.
Even if the Pheu Thai Party secures a big win at the May 14 general election, there is no guarantee Paetongtarn will become prime minister. The top post is selected in a vote involving both houses of Parliament. That includes the Senate, which was appointed by the junta led by current prime minister and candidate Prayuth Chan-ocha, rather than by the public. Prayuth won all the senators’ votes after the 2019 election.
‘Time for a new way’: Thais look for change as election nears
Analysts warn failure to honour the outcome could leave the country weak, divided and at risk of crisis. The Thai election is scheduled for May 14 with early voting this Sunday [File: Lillian Suwanrumpha/AFP]
Bangkok, Thailand – As Thais celebrated the Songkran festival last month by soaking each other in a barrage of water fights, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha was hoping the occasion would help rescue his lacklustre campaign for re-election.
Donning a bright Hawaiian shirt and armed with a massive blue water gun Prayuth, the army chief-turned-politician who overthrew Yingluck Shinawatra’s government in a 2014 coup, made a surprise appearance at Bangkok’s Khao San Road, joining startled revellers in the traditional water fights that mark the festival.
Thailand’s May 14 elections will determine the Southeast Asian country’s political and foreign policy over the next few years, as the quasi-military government faces growing domestic discontent, security pressures from neighbouring Myanmar and increasing rivalry between the United States and China.
Under Prayuth, Thailand has moved closer to China, abstained on the United Nations resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and embraced Myanmar’s coup leaders. But all could change if he is replaced.
Opinion polls show Prayuth, 69, trailing far behind his younger rivals – Pheu Thai (PTP) party leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, and Move Forward (MFP) leader Pita Limjaroenrat, 42. Paetongtarn, who this week gave birth to a baby boy, is Yingluck’s niece and the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was also removed in a coup.
Despite continued crackdowns on opposition parties, Pheu Thai and Move Forward, have proved remarkably resilient and analysts are anxious about a big political showdown.
Prayuth Chan-ocha, the army chief-turned-politician, hoped some water fights at Songkran would help refresh his sagging campaign for reelection [United Nation Thai Party/Handout via Reuters]
But reports that PTP, which grew out of previous Thaksin-linked parties, might be prepared to do a deal with the military parties has caused alarm among some young, progressive voters.
“I’ll vote for the MFP because they stand firm with democracy and won’t collude with those involved in coup d’états. They have a proper policy manifesto that seeks to address many problems in Thai society,” Sirikanda Jariyanukoon, a 26-year-old public relations consultant from the southern Thai city of Nakhon Si Thammarat, told Al Jazeera.
Jariyanukoon, who is going to cast the second vote of her life, said she would not vote for PTP because “it’s time to have new people, new parties, and a new way of conducting politics,” adding that “the old style no longer fits”.
That thirst for change was clear in the 2019 election when the Future Forward Party, founded by charismatic entrepreneur Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, stunned Thailand’s ruling elite by coming third.
Following the elections, the authorities moved to ban Thanathorn from politics and break up the party, which eventually led to the creation of MFP with a similar reform plan.
Meanwhile, young people continued to agitate for change, leading large-scale protests in Bangkok that challenged the traditional elite and confronted once-taboo issues such as reform of the monarchy.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, is leading the opinion polls. But there are concerns the military will work to ensure she is sidelined [File: Chalinee Thirasupa/Reuters]
Rawipa, a Bangkok resident in her mid-20s, also said she would be backing the MFP.
“I’m rooting for MFP and support Pita as PM. I used to support the PTP but their policies and communications are too desperate. MFP has taken over as the bearer of progressivism,” Rawipa told Al Jazeera.
“Thai people have been more active in politics over the past few years. I doubt Prayuth and his comrades could deny the will of the people forever,” she said, adding that there was widespread resentment against his governance.
Rawipa also wants to reform the political system to guard against future coups and populist leaders.
“This is also why I switched to back MFP. Thailand doesn’t need personality-driven politics,” she said, referring to the dynastic politics of Thaksin and his family.
‘Dangerous for Thailand’
With PTP and MFP campaigning energetically for votes, it is easy to forget that Thailand’s military is a crucial element in the country’s parliamentary arithmetic.
The outcome of the poll will be decided not only by the 500 people elected to the House of Representatives but also by the 250 military-appointed Senators. That means the two main pro-democracy parties and their allies may need more than 75 percent of the seats (376) to be in a position to form a government.
That is based on the premise that opposition politicians and parties will not be dissolved or barred from taking their seats by the authorities post-election.
Prayuth is chief of the royalist United Thai Nation Party, while Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, also a former army commander-in-chief, is leading the Palang Pracharath (PPRP), the military party that Prayuth set up as a vehicle for his 2019 campaign. Both men have denied rumours of a rift.
Speaking in an interview with Thai PBS last month, Prayuth said, “I am confident that we will win at least 25 seats”, referring to the minimum number of seats required for a party to nominate a candidate for the top job.
Thai Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan is the prime minister candidate for the Palang Pracharath Party, which was formed as a vehicle for Prayuth at the last election in 2019 [File: Sakchai Lalit/AP Photo]
Earlier, the prime minister said his next administration would continue the work of its predecessors.
“The most important thing is to defend the country and protect the nation’s main institution. Please trust me as you’ve always done,” Prayuth said.
Prawit, meanwhile, has touted his party’s commitment to eradicating poverty and resolving land and water problems.
“People will face no droughts. They will have land where they can make a living… We’ll do everything to eradicate poverty. If the PPRP wins, we’ll lift 20 million people out of poverty,” he was quoted as saying by the Bangkok Post at a policy launch in February.
The vote will determine if the kind of military-royalist conservative rule epitomised by Prayuth is deepened or whether a compromise can be reached between democratic forces and the military establishment to usher in much-needed governance reforms, warned Thitinan Pongsudhirak from Chulalongkorn University.
“If this election is subverted again and Thailand ends up with a similar military-backed administration – in a fashion like the 2019 polls – there will be further erosion of public trust in the political leadership,” Thitinan, an influential expert on Thai and regional politics, explained.
“Look at the crisis in neighbouring Myanmar. It’s not inconceivable that a similar crisis can take place in Thailand,” he added, referring to the February 2021 coup in the neighbouring country.
Many worry a divided Thailand, at risk of another military power grab, will struggle to deal with the issues facing the country and the region.
Thailand has accumulated a rising public debt of more than 5 trillion baht ($148bn) during Prayuth’s administration, which will run on as the nation focuses on slow, labour-intensive growth, Thitinan said.
MFP, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, has enthused supporters with its campaign for reform [File: Chalinee Thirasupa/Reuters]
If the election leads to Prayuth’s departure, there could be a shift in Thailand’s international relations, former Thai foreign minister and ambassador Kasit Piromya told Al Jazeera.
“There will be changes because the policy will no longer be based on a personal relationship like the one between Prayuth and Min Aung Hlaing,” he said, referring to Myanmar’s coup leader and army chief. He added that foreign policies were currently defined by the “avoidance of [a] foreign policy stand and commitment or doing nothing in order to not rock the boat domestically and internationally”.
With the campaign now in its final stages, the reformist parties look set to win the most votes.
Zach Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, DC, said it was likely the Senate would vote en bloc to prevent Paetongtarn and the Pheu Thai from forming a government.
“The military hand-picked the senators for one purpose only: to exorcise the Thaksins from Thai politics,” he said.
But analysts say the military will need to accept the outcome to help heal the rifts that have plagued the country for so many years.
“Denying the winning parties the right to govern will exacerbate the already-deep divisions. Young people in particular will feel more and more disillusioned with the establishment. This is dangerous for Thailand,” Michael Ng, the former deputy head of the Hong Kong government’s office in Bangkok, told Al Jazeera.
SOURCE: AL JAZEERA
No alternative: Afghan farmers lament Taliban poppy ban
By AFP Published May 3, 2023 A Taliban security force member slashes at a field of poppies, used in the production of heroin, which have been banned by the government - Copyright AFP Sanaullah SEIAM Estelle EMONET and Abdullah HASRAT
In a secluded compound in south Afghanistan, Bibi Hazrato cries in dismay as a group of men hack down her poppy crop, enforcing a Taliban government order to wean the nation off the narcotic plant.
“If you were working for God, you would not have crushed this little field,” the frail sexagenarian hectors the turbaned men flaying her plants.
“God says crush this,” one of them bluntly answers.
The lucrative trade of poppy tar — the psychoactive substance in heroin — has been one of the few constants over decades of war and chaos in Afghanistan.
But, last April, Taliban Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada declared poppy cultivation “strictly prohibited”.
On a trip to the opium-producing areas of Afghanistan, AFP saw fields of wheat where poppy flowers once bloomed, as the first harvest season under the ban got underway.
In Hazrato’s spartan home with tarpaulin sheet windows in Sher Surkh village of Kandahar province, Afghanistan’s dilemma plays out in brief as an illicit-yet-vital source of revenue is extinguished in the midst of a humanitarian crisis.
“God also says to help the poor like me,” she says, her head covered in a trailing black shawl.
“No one has ever helped me.”
– ‘Strictly implemented’ –
The Taliban were largely successful in eradicating poppy agriculture at the tail-end of their first rule from 1996 to 2001, analysts say.
But their veto faded when they were ousted by the US-led invasion in 2001 — and started funding their fightback with a tax on the crop.
Opium production provided about half of the Taliban insurgents’ revenues in 2016, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).
By 2020, the last full year of rule by the Western-backed government, 85 percent of the world’s opium was flowing out of Afghanistan, the UN body said.
The following year it estimated the opiate economy accounted for between nine and 14 percent of Afghanistan’s GDP.
Production has always been focused in the arid southern provinces of Kandahar and Helmand that seeded the Taliban movement three decades ago.
Last year’s ban was announced as the harvest was underway, so a grace period was agreed.
Immediately enforcing the ban would have risked “widespread dissent”, analyst David Mansfield said in an October report.
Razing fields as labourers prepared to slash poppy bulbs and collect the precious sap would “destroy the crop at the very moment when farmers were about to realise the returns on their labour”, he wrote.
But this year, “there is an indication that the poppy ban has been strictly implemented,” senior UNODC official Anubha Sood told AFP.
Nonetheless, she said “small fields” remained in “private houses and gardens, vineyards, non-visible and remote areas”.
News of the ban sent local per-kilogram prices nearly doubling to about $200 last year.
– ‘One-man rule’ –
In his village outside Helmand’s provincial capital Lashkar Gah, Ghulam Rasool had hoped to skirt the ban and continue farming poppies as he has for most of his 60 years.
Last year, he grew five hectares, earning 1.5 million Afghani ($17,000) — a small fortune in Afghanistan.
This year, he downsized to a small patch in his private compound, giving over his publicly visible fields to wheat and cotton.
But just days before he was ready to harvest, three men came to enforce the supreme leader’s ban.
“It’s a one-man rule and no other people have any say. Whatever they instruct, you have to obey, you don’t have any other choice,” he told AFP on a visit to his home escorted by Taliban government security forces.
“They should give us help and alternatives,” he said with incredulity. “They haven’t given us anything so far.”
– Supreme authority –
Deputy counter-narcotics minister Abdul Haq Akhund Hamkar told AFP nearly three thousand hectares of poppy had been destroyed since the start of the season.
That figure is a fraction of the 233,000 hectares the UNODC estimated were harvested in 2022.
But Helmand counter-narcotics chief Haji Qazi said the ban “has been implemented to a great extent [without force]”, because far less poppy was sown this season.
“When the decree of the supreme leader was announced, most of the people accepted it,” he said.
While opium farming was illegal under the ousted government, the authorities never had a secure grip on power in rural Afghanistan.
In exile and in government, the Taliban have always had a reputation for fiercely enforcing law and order — extending to public corporal punishments and even executions during their first rule.
When 37-year-old Mir Ahmad heard of the ban over the radio at his village in Nad-e-Ali district of Helmand province, his first thought was he would “lose a lot of money”.
Nonetheless, he converted his nine hectares of poppies into wheat for the first time in 20 years.
“This year, we are financially in bad shape,” Ahmad said. “Last year, we had so much money we couldn’t even spend it all.”
