High road to Dubai COP28: Can Bonn climate conference iron out disagreements around loss & damage fund

The funding sources should be expanded to include innovative sources such as taxes and levies

By Akshit Sangomla
Published: Sunday 04 June 2023

The current sources of climate finance are mostly loan based, which increases the debt burden of developing countries that are already facing development challenges. 

Photo: UNFCC.

The discussions around making the Loss and Damage Fund (LDF) fully operational by the 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) seem to be heading in the wrong direction due to divergent views about the scope, scale and sources of the fund among developed and developing countries.

The Subsidiary Body (SB) conference at Bonn could be an opportunity for course correction to COP28, which will be held in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) later this year.

Also read: High road to Dubai COP28: Why discussions on carbon credits are important at upcoming Bonn climate conference

LDF was brought into existence at the COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, last November after a decades-long struggle by developing countries. The fund is essential for ensuring new, additional and predictable finance for communities most affected by rapid onset impacts of climate change, such as tropical cyclones, and slow onset impacts, such as sea level rise.

Among the 24 members of a Transitional Committee (TC) that was formed in March, 14 are from developing countries, and 10 are from developed countries. The committee’s formation was mandated by the decision text on LDF agreed upon at COP27, and its function was to make recommendations to COP28 towards the full operationalisation of the LDF.

The committee members had their first meeting from March 27 to March 29. In the first meeting, a work plan for the rest of the year was decided upon, which included the addition of a fourth meeting of the committee to the earlier three.

The members also decided that all the aspects of the LDF, such as the sources of the fund and other funding arrangements outside it and how these would be delivered to the communities/countries in need of the funds, would be discussed in each of the meetings.

In the first meeting, members agreed upon most things in principle, though fissures had begun to emerge about the scope and scale of the fund. They also decided on the importance that should be given to funding arrangements outside of the UNFCCC process, such as the Global Shield being led by the V20 group of vulnerable countries and the G7 group of developed countries.

After the first meeting, a workshop was held for the members from April 29 to April 30, wherein different humanitarian and environmental organisations and multinational development banks gave presentations about case studies related to addressing loss and damage.

By the second meeting from May 25-27, the Transitional Committee seems clearly divided between the global north and global south on the very focus of what the character of the fund should be.

At the SB 58, the second Glasgow Dialogue on June 8-10 would be an opportunity for the two sides to come together and course correct for the rest of the two TC meetings so that their recommendations for the COP can be delivered in time.

The developed countries want to minimise the scope of the LDF to addressing non-economic losses from slow onset impacts of climate change such as sea level rise.

Also read: High road to Dubai COP28: Climate finance will be key at Bonn Climate Conference

For relief and recovery after rapid onset events such as tropical cyclones, the developed countries want to rope in humanitarian agencies such as the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies and provide them with funding arrangements outside the UNFCCC process, such as the Global Shield which is predominantly based on insurance instruments with some social protection measures.

The humanitarian agencies are already overstretched with fatigue setting in for their donors. The scale, speed and access required for the LDF, especially in the context of continuous extreme weather events faced by countries, won’t be delivered by relying heavily on humanitarian agencies. However, their role cannot be downplayed.


“The developed countries basically want to minimise their contributions to the LDF and that is why they want to limit its scope as it would be under the UN process and the other funding arrangements outside the UN process such as the Global Shield would be more under their control,” said Harjeet Singh of the non-profit Climate Action Network International.

“Geopolitics should not decide the scale, scope and functioning of the LDF,” Singh added.

On the other hand, developing countries are calling for a grant-based, easily accessible LDF that has a broad scope and scale and can quickly disburse money to the communities in need of the fund. They also want it to be set up inside the UNFCCC process and governed by COP, with priority given to direct access to the funds for communities.

The funding sources should be expanded to include innovative sources such as taxes and levies in line with the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities. This could include taxes on Shipping and aviation sectors and contributions from historical emitters of greenhouse gases.

This is because the most affected by the extreme weather events are also the least responsible for the greenhouse gas emissions that have caused the planet to warm by 1.1°C and changed major aspects of its climate, including extreme weather events.

The current sources of climate finance are mostly loan based, which increases the debt burden of developing countries that are already facing development challenges. LDF should also act as an oversight mechanism which would monitor the activities undertaken by the fund and assess if they have their intended impact.

Hence its governance is of utmost importance, which is being considered to be under the Santiago Network for Loss and Damage, which already has the mandate to advise countries on the technical aspects of Loss and Damage. A separate and new LDF with its own governance is the need of the hour.

This is not to undermine the roles of governments, whether national or local, in acting as the coordination nodes for the disbursements of the fund. All these aspects would hopefully be discussed and ironed out at the second Glasgow Dialogue at the SB 58.

Global Help Sought in Huge Citizen Science Project on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef

June 05, 2023 
Phil Mercer

A school of blue-green chromid fish swim above corals on Moore Reef in Gunggandji Sea Country off coast of Queensland in eastern Australia, Nov. 13, 2022.


SYDNEY —

As Australia marks World Environment Day Monday (June 5), campaigners are asking an international army of volunteers to analyze a trove of images from the Great Reef Census. One of the world’s fastest growing conservation projects has been undertaken by divers and snorkelers on tourism and recreational vessels as well as dive boats and super yachts.

From space, there’s only one living thing that can be seen. It’s the Great Barrier Reef — arguably Australia’s greatest natural treasure. This wonderland is made up of 3,000 individual coral reefs. It’s home to a spectacular array of jellyfish, worms, fish, whales and dolphins.

Over the past 3 years, the annual Great Reef Census has gathered about 80,000 individual images. It’s one of the most comprehensive snapshots of the health of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef from the Torres Strait in the far north to Lady Elliot Island in the south.

The world’s largest coral system is under threat, but to recognize the dangers, researchers need information.

Andy Ridley, the head of Citizens of the Great Barrier Reef that organizes the survey, told VOA Monday that he wants volunteers around the world to donate their screen time to help examine the images.

“Doing analysis is really, really easy. Essentially, we’re looking for how much plate coral there is, how much boulder coral there is, how much branching coral there is and there is a really, kind of, easy tutorial that gets you up to speed really quickly to enable you to analyze an image. It should take you probably less than a minute to analyze one image that has come back from one of 500 reefs across the Great Barrier Reef,” he said.

The surveillance project on the Great Barrier Reef also uses artificial intelligence to scan much of the data.

Ridley said the initial results of the latest survey are impressive.

“We have found ecosystems that were previously undiscovered, we found shipwrecks in the north that had never been found, more than 3 tons of ghost nets, so these are nets that keep on fishing once they’ve been dropped off fishing boats that have been recovered and brought off the reef. In terms of the results of how much coral there is, we are really looking at that now. This whole thing is live as we speak. So, we’ll be able to share more within the next few weeks,” he said.

The world’s largest coral system is a place like no other. It stretches for 2,300 kilometers down Australia’s north-eastern coast.

Experts say that some parts of the reef are flourishing. Others, though, are under siege from warmer ocean temperatures and more intense tropical storms as well as coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish, pollution and over-fishing.

Edinburgh International Book Festival

Greta Thunberg returns to Scotland to give talk

1 June 2023
by Robert Armour

Community groups can apply for free tickets

Activist Greta Thunberg is returning to Scotland take part in an event at the Edinburgh International Book Festival.

It’s Not Too Late To Change The World will take place at the Edinburgh Playhouse on August 13 and will chaired by writer and broadcaster Gemma Cairney.

It will be Thunberg’s first public appearance in Scotland since her visit to Glasgow for COP26, the UN climate change conference, in November 2021.

Nick Barley, director of the book festival, said: “Nobody speaks truth to power quite like Greta Thunberg: her words and actions have given hope to countless young activists.

“This is a rare opportunity to spend time in the presence of a young woman whose conviction and defiant energy is a source of inspiration to millions across the globe. We are honoured to welcome Greta to Edinburgh International Book Festival.”

It’s Not Too Late To Change The World will be part of a climate-focused strand of events at the book festival, which is presented in association with the Edinburgh International Festival.

Three hundred tickets to the event featuring Ms Thunberg will be made available to local community groups and young people, and a special half-price ticket will be offered to those aged under 26 to encourage them to become part of the climate conversation.

CAPITALI$T $CIENCE

Organ shortage and genetic modification: Tissues from 3D-bioprinting and GM pigs could address organ shortages but regulation causes lags

Henry Miller, Sally Satel | June 6, 2023

Credit: Wallpaper Flare

Modern medicine has produced many kinds of high-tech miracles, among them gene therapy to correct malfunctioning genes, electrical stimulation devices to restore significant function after traumatic spinal cord injury, surgery performed by robots, and a wearable, postage-stamp-size ultrasound patch that can take real-time images of the heart and monitor its performance.

Another sector of medicine that desperately needs breakthroughs is the transplantation of solid organs, which are in severely short supply. Currently, more than 100,000 Americans are waiting for transplants, and due to a shortage of hearts, lungs, livers, and kidneys, at least 17 die each day. Donor organs — from a living person or cadaver — must match the rejection recipient’s tissue type and size, and often, they are not perfect. By one estimate, approximately half of transplanted organs are rejected by recipients’ bodies within 10-12 years, despite a constantly expanding understanding of what causes rejection. Another obstacle is that the organ procurement system in the U.S. is inefficient, inconsistent, and unaccountable – in short, a mess that causes preventable deaths.

We are making progress, but too slowly. Two new high-tech approaches to providing organs for transplantation might ultimately both eliminate the need for organ donors and reduce the risk of tissue rejection. And there is also a low-tech approach that would require only a tweak in healthcare policy.

Organs produced by 3D bioprinting

The first of the high-tech approaches is three-dimensional (3D) bioprinting, which uses “bio-ink,” a printable material made from a patient’s own cells, to print layer upon layer, creating tissue that the recipient will not reject. But in progressing from tissue to a complex organ, one critical challenge has been creating blood flow to keep the cells alive; researchers have devised a number of approaches to this. They include threading tiny channels through the organ, where blood vessels develop when implanted in animals, or seeding channels with the endothelial cells lining the inside blood vessels.

An exciting advance was reported by a Swedish research group attempting to create human lungs by 3D printing. According to the lead author of the study,

We started small by fabricating small tubes, because this is a feature found in both airways and in the vasculature of the lung. By using our new bioink with stem cells isolated from patient airways, we were able to bioprint small airways which had multiple layers of cells and remained open over time.

The fabrication of other organs presents additional, more imposing obstacles. The liver and kidneys produce hormone-like substances that modulate physiological processes such as blood coagulation, blood pressure, and removing toxins from the bloodstream. It is difficult to see how these closely regulated functions could be incorporated into 3D-printed organs.

Credit: Centromere121 via CC-BY-SA-3.0

In addition to the daunting technical challenges, healthcare executive Daniel Troy has described the regulatory lassitude at the FDA that has discouraged commercial interest in the field. He observed that while the FDA is accustomed to evaluating the safety and efficacy of mass-produced therapies and medical devices, “bioprinted organs are one-of-a-kind creations, tailor-made for each patient,” and the agency’s long-promised regulatory guidance for such products has not materialized.
Organs from genetically modified pigs

A second approach to providing a sufficient supply of organs for transplantation is genetically engineering animals — most often, pigs (because they are an appropriate size) — so that their transplanted organs will not be rejected. In effect, it uses genetic engineering to grow “humanized” tissues and organs in animals. There was a breakthrough with this approach in 2018 when scientists used gene editing to create hybrid embryos containing both human and sheep cells.



Another milestone occurred in December 2020 when the FDA “approved a first-of-its-kind intentional genomic alteration (IGA) in a line of domestic pigs” called GalSafe, which may be used for food or human therapeutics. The IGA in the animals eliminates the gene that makes α-Gal, a sugar molecule found naturally on the surface of porcine cells. It is the source of allergy in some people when they consume certain meats, and it also is involved in tissue or organ rejection after transplantation into humans. That was the first IGA in an animal approved by the FDA for both human food consumption and as a potential source for therapeutic uses.

There is considerable research underway to create lines of pigs for transplantation, but there is also controversy about the extent of genetic modification necessary to both avoid rejection and ensure the absence of harmful pathogens. Two separate, very small clinical trials have already been performed – a pig heart transplanted into a patient with terminal heart disease and a pig kidney implanted in a brain-dead patient. The heart transplant patient died two months post-transplant and the kidneys worked well until the experiment was terminated after three days. These are considered encouraging early results.

The low-tech policy approach

Although friends and relatives and even the occasional “good Samaritan” donor can donate kidneys, they must be given without compensation. Under section 301(a) of the National Organ Transplant Act of 1984 (NOTA), it is a federal crime for “any person to knowingly acquire, receive, or otherwise transfer any human organ for valuable consideration for use in human transplantation if the transfer affects interstate commerce.” Therefore, we propose a federal tax credit for living donors willing to save the life of a stranger. The value of the reward should be between $50,000 and $100,000, which physicians and others who endorse donor compensation believe would be sufficient to address the organ shortage. An economic analysis published last year estimated that a reward of $77,000 could encourage sufficient donations to save 47,000 patients annually.

The credit would be universally available – refundable in cash for people who do not owe income tax, not phased out at high-income levels, and available under the alternative minimum tax. There would be no change in NOTA’s restriction on payments by organ recipients and other private individuals and organizations – it would still be illegal for recipients to buy organs.

Credit: Rmarlin via CC-BY-SA-4.0

A qualified organ donation would be subject to stringent safeguards. Prospective compensated donors would be carefully screened for physical and emotional health, as all donors are now. A minimum six-month waiting period before the donation would filter out impulsive donors and donations by financially desperate individuals seeking instant cash.

In addition to saving lives, the credit would save the government money, perhaps $10 billion per year, or even as much as $14 billion per year, by reducing expenditures on dialysis. Thus, donors would receive financial compensation from the government for contributing to the public good and bearing the risk of a surgical operation to remove the organ. This would be a compassionate and pragmatic policy. Moreover, it could be implemented immediately, rapidly clearing much of the backlog of Americans waiting for organs in advance of the longer-term high-tech approaches.

The organ shortage kills thousands of Americans every year. We must do all we can to alleviate it now.

Henry Miller, a physician and molecular biologist, is the Glenn Swogger Distinguished Fellow at the American Council on Science and Health. He was the founding director of the FDA’s Office of Biotechnology. Follow Henry on Twitter @henryimiller

Sally Satel is a psychiatrist and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, is a kidney recipient. She and economist Alan Viard developed the tax proposal in depth. Follow Sally on Twitter @slsatel

A version of this article was posted at American Council on Science and Health and is used here with permission. Check out American Council on Science and Health on Twitter @ACSHorg

Guam’s indigenous people ‘feel less safe’ over US military build-up

By APR editor -
June 6, 2023

The US military continues to build its military capabilities on Guam . . . "now part of the target". 

Image: RNZ Pacific/AFP

By Don Wiseman, NZ Pacific journalist

Guam has long faced tensions due to the heavy United States military presence on the island.

But as Washington moves to counter China’s presence in the region it is sending more soldiers and missiles to the US territory and updating naval facilities.

There are an estimated 22,000 American troops on Guam currently and that figure is expected to increase up to 27,000.

Director of the Pacific Islands Development Programme at the Hawai’i-based East West Center, Dr Mary Therese Hattori, told RNZ Pacific the military build-up makes Guam a target and puts the safety of its indigenous Chamorro people at risk.

• LISTEN TO RNZ PACIFIC WAVES: Guam’s insecurity

Dr Hattori, who is a Chamorro herself, said the reaction from the locals to the US military presence varies.

“We are seeing all of this tension in the region and it may mean that more of a military build-up and greater defence capabilities on Guam will actually make us a target,” she said.

“The current administration will highlight positives; the employment opportunities for locals, the investment for local infrastructure.”

Chamorro people feeling ‘unsafe’
But she said the people were feeling less safe.

“So, while the country may feel that it is better defended, the safety of the Chamorro people is not part of the equation.”

“We are seeing all of this [military] tensions in the region and it may mean that more of a military build-up and greater defence capabilities on Guam will actually make us a target.

“We feel less safe because Guam is now part of the target . . . you know, the tip of the spear is going to break first in a battle,” she added.

Guam, which has a population of just under 170,000, is still one of the few places where the indigenous people are denied a right to self-determination so that is still an issue.

East-West Centre’s Dr Mary Therese Hattori . . . “The US really needs to take a look at its track record and its relationships and meaningful engagement with Pacific Islands.” Image: EWC

US presenting as ‘Pacific nation’
Dr Hattori said the US is putting itself forward as a Pacific nation and claiming to have commitment and a deep desire for meaningful engagement with the region in response to China’s engagement in the Pacific.

“But as a Chamorro woman, who lives in the state of Hawai’i, I would argue that US really needs to take a look at its track record and its relationships and meaningful engagement with Pacific Islands with which it has historic relations [such as] American Samoa, Guam, the COFA [Compact of Free Association] nations, and native Hawai’ians.”

“So, look at the track record; look at Red Hill [Hawai’i], the contamination of the water, lack of self-determination on Guam, military build-up, environmental degradation.”

“If this is how US treats Pacific nations with whom it has historic ties, how can other Pacific islanders really believe that the US wants to be a true partner and a Pacific nation,” she added.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

REACTIONARY KURDISH STATE IN IRAQ

Erbil court issues death penalty for six senior members of PUK's Counter Terrorism Forces

The head of PUK’s Counter Terrorism Forces (CTG) and five other members were sentenced to execution on absentia by an Erbil Criminal Court.

Dana Taib Menmy
Iraq
05 June, 2023

A banner depicting Bafel Talabani (left), president of PUK and son of late Jalal Talabani, former Iraqi president and former secretary general of PUK (middle) and Lahur Talabani (right). [Dana Taib Menmy/TNA]

Conflicts between the two main ruling parties in the Kurdistan region, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) on Sunday entered into a very dangerous stage after an Erbil-based court sentenced PUK's head of Counter Terrorism Forces (CTG) and five other members to death over their alleged involvement in the assassination of a former PUK colonel in Erbil.

Hawkar Abdullah Rasoul, known as Hawkar Jaff, a former colonel in the ranks of PUK's CTG was killed in the capital city of Erbil on 7 October after a sticky bomb, attached to his vehicle, detonated

Wahab Majid Baqi, known as Wahab Halabjayi, and CTG head of intelligence Karzan Muhammad Rasheed, along with four other members in the CTG were sentenced to death on absentia by an Erbil Criminal Court, Mohamed Jaff, brother of late Jaff told the reporters in Erbil.

The brother also said that court sentences would be announced on more suspects in the case by 8 June.

Jaff was supervising the CTG operations in Nineveh and was fired in the summer of 2021 due to an internal issue between cousins Bafel Talabani and Lahur Talabani - then co-leaders of PUK, since Jaff was a close ally to Lahur.

Kurdistan Region Security Council (KRSC), a body controlled by the KDP, on 12 October aired alleged confessions of six suspects in the assassination. The KRSC claimed that the "terrorist explosion" was "conducted by a team of CTG-Sulaymaniyah and by direct orders from Halabjayi and Rasheed.

Accordingly, an Erbil court has issued arrest warrants against Halabjayi, Rasheed, and senior PUK officials. The CTG denied any involvement in the killing of Jaff.

The New Arab contacted Soran Jamal Tahir, PUK’s spokesperson, but he was not immediately available to comment.

Bafel Talabani, PUK's President, on Monday, met with Halabjaei and CTG senior commanders, awarding them "for their efforts and sacrifices for the sake of Kurdistan and the prosperity of its people," according to a statement by the CTG.

"You are an example of loyal and hardworking commanders of Kurdistan and have recorded a proud history. Your activities to maintain the stability of the region and its beloved people testify to your loyalty and tirelessness," Talabani was quoted as saying.

Although both parties are partners in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), the KDP, led by the Barzani family dominate the Kurdish region's Erbil and Duhok provinces, while the PUK, led by the Talabani family, rules Sulaimaniyah and Halabja provinces.

Both parties have their separate Peshmerga forces, security and intelligence agencies. Both parties fought an internal conflict from 1994 until 1998, in which thousands of fighters and civilians were killed, wounded and displaced.

The two parties also have different views on how to share revenues begotten from the region's oil and gas sector and whether to hold a much-delayed general election scheduled for 18 November.

The judiciary in the Kurdish region is under constant criticism for being subordinate to the jurisdictions of the two ruling parties.

The court's decisions have raised concerns of local citizens about splintering the Kurdish region into two separate administrations in Erbil and Sulaimaniyah.

Qubad Talabani, the deputy prime minister of KRG, boycotted the meetings of the KRG's Council of Ministers for months but recently returned to the formal meetings of the cabinet headed by PM Masrour Barzani, son of Masoud Barzani-the KDP president.

CCTV captures moment Israeli settlers attack Palestinian village

CCTV cameras from a Palestinian home captured the start of an attack by Israeli settlers which damaged property and left some requiring medical treatment in a village near Nablus in the occupied West Bank. It's the second such attack on Burqa village in as many weeks, Israelis from the nearby illegal outpost burned down a farmhouse in Burqa in late May 2023.

June 5, 2023

Illegal Israeli settlers attacked the Palestinian residents of the village of Burqa near Nablus in the northern West Bank on Sunday evening, shooting at least four people and injuring 55 others, Anadolu has reported.

The Palestine Red Crescent Society confirmed that its medical teams treated four people injured by shrapnel from live fire, as well as 55 cases of tear gas inhalation during the settler attack. As usual, the settlers were protected by Israeli occupation soldiers during the attack.

"A group of settlers from the Homesh settlement infiltrated the village under the protection of the Israeli army, and attacked Palestinian homes in several areas of the village of Burqa," explained Ghassan Daglas, who monitors settlement issues in the northern West Bank "Fighting broke out with the residents who confronted the settlers during the attack, which led to injuries." About fifty settlers also attacked three houses on the outskirts of the village with stones, and smashed the windows of a number of vehicles, he added.

READ: It took just one Egyptian border guard to boost the nation amid normalisation with Israel

The village of Burqa is under constant attacks by settlers, as it is located near the once-evacuated Homesh settlement. In March, the Israeli Knesset approved the repeal of what is known as the "Disengagement Law", allowing settlers to return to four settlements in the West Bank that were evacuated in 2005, including Homesh.

All of Israel's settlements on occupied Palestinian land are illegal under international law, as are the settlers who live in them. Despite this, the governor of Salfit in the occupied West Bank, Abdullah Kamil, has publicised details of a new settlement plan aimed at seizing more than 2,471 acres of Palestinian land in the governorate for settlement expansion.

"The occupation authorities announced the decision to seize land belonging to the towns of Al-Zawiya, Deir Ballut, Rafat and Masha in the west of Salfit governorate, as well as in Suniriya, in the Qalqilya governorate," explained Kamil. "The land is to be used for settlers' industrial and tourist areas, settlement units and roads linking the settlements."

In a related incident, reported the official Palestinian news agency WAFA, six-year-old Amin Daoud suffered bruises and contusions when settlers assaulted his family while they were grazing sheep in Masafer Yatta, south of Hebron.

The Israeli NGO Peace Now says on its website that "more than 465,000 settlers currently live in 132 settlements and 146 random outposts on the [Palestinian] land of the West Bank."

Anti-Zionist Jews picket pro-Israel march in New York City

A group of anti-Zionist Jews and Palestinians stood together to oppose a pro-Israel demonstration in New York City. The pro-Israel demonstrators were noticeably divided as some openly protested the presence of the Isreali Minister of the Diaspora Amichai Chikli, who held up his middle finger to them in response.

June 5, 2023 

READ: Beating the Zionists and their political ideology

 

56 Years of Bleeding: ‘Naksa’ Marks the Ongoing Wound of Palestine

M.Y | DOP - 5 June, 2023

Today, June 5th marks the 56th anniversary of the Naksa or “Setback” in English, which marked the completion of the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories, including Jerusalem, the Golan Heights from Syria, and the Sinai Peninsula from Egypt, an event which was followed the Israel and Egypt, Syria and Jordan conflict dubbed the “Six-Day War” in 1967.

Despite international condemnation of its actions and United Nations resolutions opposing its unlawful expansionism, the occupation refused to be swayed, continuing a flurry of activity – seizing and plundering land for the purpose of establishing settlements. Its refusal to accept the logic of peace and disregard for the principles embodied in the U.N. charter made it clear that the occupation was determined to pursue its aggressive agenda.

In a surprising and unexpected move, the Israeli military, with the backing of the United States of America, launched a full-fledged attack on the morning of June 5, 1967 on Egypt, Syria and Jordan, while the French government and other international players attempted to negotiate a diplomatic agreement to prevent war and halt military preparations. Despite their best efforts, the Israeli military decided to take matters into their own hands and launch a “pre-emptive” strike.

In 1967, following the withdrawal of Jordanian forces and their return to the east of the Jordan River, Israeli occupation forces seized control of the West Bank, including Jerusalem, significantly reducing the country’s border with Jordan from 480 km to 83 km (including 5 km along the Dead Sea).

Israel has appropriated substantial wealth from the West Bank, in particular its water resources, and has initiated projects aimed at “Judaizing” Jerusalem with methodical precision. It has seized vast sections of the West Bank, offering strategic and military gain as well as protection from any potential threat posed by an armed and unified Arab force in the West Bank, a vital region in the history of Palestine.

As a result of the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, sweeping changes were seen on the international stage. The UN Security Council passed Resolution 242 to bring about peace and understanding between warring parties, leading to the Three Arab No’s Summit in Khartoum. Regionally, tens of thousands of Palestinians from the West Bank were displaced and entire villages were wiped out. Additionally, the Israeli government established several settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank.

The 1967 war brought devastation and destruction far beyond what most could imagine. According to estimates, between 15,000 to 25,000 Arabs lost their lives during the course of this devastating conflict, in contrast to the 800 reported casualties seen on the Israeli side. 70–80% of military equipment in the Arab countries were destroyed, and the scale of human tragedy was only amplified when Palestinian researcher Aref Al-Aref reported the number of arrested Palestinians reaching more than 6,000 as a result of the war, with 1,000 deported out of the country. Additionally, President Gamal Abdel Nasser reported that the number of Egyptian prisoners might have reached up to 11,000. As documented by Ahmed Al-Alami in his book “War 67,” more than 200 houses were blown up in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

The uprisings of fedayeen and Palestinian resistance against the Israeli military occupation, in spite of the crushing defeats of Arab armies on all fronts, became ubiquitous in this region, bringing new, extreme forms of Israeli oppression to the Palestinian people. From the deportation of city mayors and university staff to the evacuation of residents and the imprisonment of thousands, the Israeli military forces sought to impose their laws and rules on the Palestinian population.

Legal Reality after the War

In the wake of the 1967 war, the Israeli occupation took complete authority over the legislative, executive, and judicial sectors in the Palestinian territories. This was established with the release of Military Order No. 2 of 1967, which stated that any regulations already in effect in the occupied areas would be eliminated if they conflicted with the orders put forth by the Israeli government.

Since the announcement of Israeli Military Order No. 347 in 1981, the so-called Civil Administration took over the authority for all legal and administrative matters. This order established the military courts and committees, investing them with full responsibility for all criminal cases, land disputes, tax payments and the use of natural resources in the region. Therefore, Israel’s military orders control all aspects of life in Palestine.

Israel’s ongoing restriction of Palestinian movements and rights within the Occupied Territories has been met with international concern. A series of military orders issued by Israeli command centers in the West Bank and Gaza have effectively bypassed the application of international law and turned Palestinian detainees into enemies of the state, often subjecting them to harsh punishments for minor offenses. Despite the Israeli government’s adamant refusal to recognize Palestinian prisoners of war, the fact that these actions are in direct violation of international laws obligating occupying countries to apply such laws to the occupied population remains a matter of international alarm.

Israel made a bold move when they launched a surprise air strike on the military airfields of Egypt, Syria, and Jordan. This surprise attack gave the Israeli military air force an unprecedented level of control over the battlefield – an advantage they maintained for the duration of the war.

Between June 5 and 8, the Israeli occupation forces violently carried out a major offensive against Egypt, while launching a secondary assault against Jordan. Simultaneously, the Israeli military utilized artillery and air strikes to launch an active defense operation against Syria, targeting Syrian army positions in the Golan Heights for the entirety of those two days.

On June 10, Israel disregarded a United Nations ceasefire resolution and intensified military activity, with fresh reserve forces particularly directed toward Jordanian forces.

Iraq's Christians fight to save threatened ancient language

 
 AFP 2023/05/31 

A view of a Syriac language Bible on display at the Syriac Museum in Iraq's predominantly Christian town of Qaraqosh (Baghdeda) in Nineveh province, May 10, 2023. (Photo: Waleed al-Khaleed/AFP)

Iraq's shrunken and conflict-scarred Christian community is launching a new television channel as part of efforts to save their dying language, spoken for more than 2,000 years.

Syriac, an ancient dialect of Aramaic, has traditionally been the language spoken by Christians in Iraq and neighbouring Syria, mostly in homes but also in some schools and during church services.

However, Syriac-speaking communities in the two countries have declined over the years, owing to decades of conflict driving many to seek homes in safer countries. In Iraq, the Christian population is thought to have fallen by more than two-thirds in just over two decades.

the Chaldean Catholic Archbishop of Mosul Michaeel Najeeb holds an old damaged Syriac-language Christian codex at the Eastern Manuscript Digitisation Centre (CNMO) in Erbil, May 16, 2023. 

(Photo: Safin Hamed/AFP)

"It's true that we speak Syriac at home, but unfortunately I feel that our language is disappearing slowly but surely," said Mariam Albert, a news presenter on the Syriac-language Al-Syriania television channel.

Iraq's government launched the channel in April to help keep the language alive. It has around 40 staff and offers a variety of programming, from cinema to art and history.

"It is important to have a television station that represents us," said Albert, a 35-year-old mother.

Many programmes are presented in a dialect form of Syriac but Albert said the channel's news bulletins are broadcast only in classical Syriac, a form not widely understood by everyone.

The Chaldean Catholic Archbishop of Mosul Michaeel Najeeb presents an old Syriac-language Christian codex at the Eastern Manuscript Digitisation Centre (CNMO) in Erbil, May 16, 2023. 

(Photo: Safin Hamed/AFP)

The goal of Al-Syriania is "to preserve the Syriac language" through "entertainment", said station director Jack Anwia.

"Once upon a time, Syriac was a language widespread across the Middle East," he said, adding that Baghdad has a duty "to keep it from extinction".

"The beauty about Iraq is its cultural and religious diversity," he said.

'Sidelined' but not dead

Iraq is known as a cradle of civilisations, including the ancient Sumerians and Babylonians, who produced the earliest known written legal code. The country was also home to the city of Ur, which the Bible cites as Abraham's birthplace.

Today, the country is overwhelmingly Shiite Muslim but also home to Sunni Muslims, Kurds, Christians, Yazidis and other minorities, while Arabic and Kurdish are the official languages.

Before the 2003 United States-led invasion of the oil-rich country, Iraq was home to around 1.5 million Christians.

In the 20 years since, which included the brutal onslaught of the Islamic State group (IS) that swept the country in 2014, their population has declined to roughly 400,000, mostly living in the north.

Mariam Ashur (L) and Mariam Albert, presenters of a television program airing on 'al-Syriania' television channel, sit together in a studio in Baghdad, May 7, 2023. 

(Photo: Ahmad Al-Rubaye/AFP)

The Syriac language has been "sidelined", according to Kawthar Askar, head of the Syriac language department at Salahaddin University in Arbil, in the autonomous Kurdistan region.

"We can't say it's a dead language... (but) it is under threat" of disappearing, he said.

The cause is migration, Askar said, adding that families who emigrate often continue speaking Syriac among themselves but later generations abandon it.

Askar's department teaches the language to around 40 students, with more studying it in Baghdad.

Syriac is also taught at around 265 schools across Iraq, according to Imad Salem Jajjo, responsible for Syriac education within the education ministry.

'Our mother tongue'

The earliest written record of Syriac dates to the first or second century BC and the language reached its peak between the fifth and seventh centuries AD, Askar said.

At its height, Syriac was spoken in everyday conversation, used in literature, the sciences and within public administration.

With the seventh-century Islamic conquests, more people in the region began speaking Arabic.

The Chaldean Catholic Archbishop of Mosul Michaeel Najeeb presents an old Syriac-language Christian codex at the Eastern Manuscript Digitisation Centre (CNMO) in Erbil, May 16, 2023. 

(Photo: Safin Hamed/AFP)

By the 11th century, Syriac was clearly in decline.

Despite the decades of conflict that have ravaged Iraq, hundreds of Syriac books and manuscripts have survived.

In 2014, days before IS fighters seized swathes of northern Iraq, the Chaldean Catholic archbishop of Mosul left the city, salvaging a trove of centuries-old Syriac manuscripts from the invading jihadists.

Around 1,700 manuscripts and 1,400 books -- some dating to the 11th century -- are now conserved at Arbil's Digital Centre for Eastern Manuscripts, which is supported by the United Nations cultural agency UNESCO, the United States Agency for International Development, and the Dominican order.

The conservation will "preserve the heritage and guarantee its sustainability", archbishop Michaeel Najeeb told AFP.

Syriac "is our history, it is our mother tongue", said Salah Bakos, a teacher from Qaraqosh, a town near Mosul, which adopted the language into its curriculum 18 years ago.

"Teaching Syriac is important, not only to children but all segments of our society... even if parents say it is a dead language that serves no purpose".

Syriac language teacher Salah Sarkis gives a class at the Ashurbanipal Syriac School in Iraq's predominantly Christian town of Qaraqosh (Baghdeda), in Nineveh province, May 10, 2023.

 (Photo: Waleed al-Khalid/AFP)

 

Can there be an energy transition?

By Chris Smaje, originally published by Small Farm Future

June 5, 2023

The shape of human civilization in the future will depend a lot on how we manage the global energy economy over the next few decades. I think the most likely scenario is that we’ll carry on using a lot of fossil fuels, which will create climate chaos and therefore civilizational chaos. The likeliest path out of that will be agrarian localism or a small farm future, because in most places most other choices will have been foreclosed. Another possible scenario is that globally we’ll find some way to pull back from the present brink of climate chaos politically, and cut global energy use dramatically. In the absence of cheap and abundant energy I believe that will also lead to agrarian localism. Two possibilities, then – what we might call the hard and soft paths to a small farm future.

Another possibility is that we successfully transition to low carbon energy supplies at roughly similar levels of abundance, price and versatility to the existing fossil energy economy. No small farm future in this eventuality. I think it would lead to other grave problems in the longer term, but from where we currently are they look like nicer problems to have.

So a big question is whether it’s possible to make that low carbon transition. Actually, it’s more than ‘a big question’ – I think it’s the fundamental question of our epoch. It doesn’t augur well that we give so little attention to it in our political culture and that, when we do, so many people seem to assume an affirmative answer is a foregone conclusion.

The question of food futures that I discuss in my forthcoming book Saying NO to a Farm-Free Future is a sub-category of this larger energy question, albeit a critical one. If we can engineer a step-change in the availability of low-carbon electricity worldwide over the next couple of decades, then it may prove possible to manufacture a lot of food in factories using hydrogen-oxidising bacteria. I’m not sure it would be a great idea for other reasons, but a key technical hurdle to its very possibility would have been overcome.

How big is that if? Well, I’m not an energy expert, but while I was writing my book I spent a while casting around for people who’ve addressed it and came up with names like Simon Michaux and Vaclav Smil, whose answer – to put it technically – is that it’s a pretty darned big if. This influenced my approach in Saying NO.

Since signing off on the manuscript, I’ve come across some critiques of Michaux’s analyses – for example, this one by Nafeez Ahmed (which has the added bonus of showing me I’m not the only person who hurls long, convoluted analyses off into cyberspace). And also some arguments that I came across via Auke Hoekstra on Twitter that transitioning the global energy economy to 100% renewables by 2050, or even by 2035, may be possible – as discussed in this review paper, of which Hoekstra is a co-author.

So maybe I was wrong. Maybe an abundant clean energy, farm-free future awaits.

A read-through of the 100% renewables paper doesn’t convince me of that, though. Now, as I’ve said, I’m not an energy expert and a lot of this paper is pretty techy, but here’s a selection of issues raised in it or in papers it cites where it strikes me that the authors may be downplaying the extent of the challenge:

• There are ‘seasonal mismatches’ between energy demand and renewable supply that are ‘largely unsolved’ although ‘some pathways have been proposed and additional research needed’
• Many projections of a renewable transition don’t fully specify or don’t even include industrial transition, especially relating to petrochemicals
• The great majority of studies focus on the Global North and not the Global South – where there are more people and less money for transition
• Although less electricity capacity is usually needed for a given job than via the fossil route, this is more than offset by the demand for economic development and energy increase in the Global South
• There are likely to be supply chain bottlenecks, time lags and ‘material challenges’ as the transition is scaled up

More on some of those points in future posts, I hope. Two other arguments in the paper that caught my eye were that heating/cooling at the individual building level was inefficient, with district systems being preferred, and that mini/micro offgrid systems would need to be integrated into larger electricity grids to deliver energy growth. I’d be interested in readers’ comments on those points.

Overall, this looks like a young field, still at the stage where a subset of university-based scholars are talking up an emerging field, making a case for more research, modelling possibilities, foreseeing difficulties and juggling with options for overcoming them. Which is all fine, except that if you’re proposing to fully transition the entire global energy infrastructure within twelve or twenty-seven years from now, and you haven’t even agreed the outlines for how in theory you might be able to do it, it makes the prospects for that transition on the ground in the real world seem … questionable.

An important aspect of energy transition is the much-discussed Energy Return on (Energy) Invested (EROI or EROEI). While critics of renewable energy often highlight its low EROEI relative to fossil fuels, the 100% renewables paper pushes back against this in a few ways. On Twitter, Hoekstra is less guarded, describing EROI as an ‘utterly useless’ concept. Maybe so for a mechanical engineer, but not so much for a farmer or a finance minister, I’d suggest. This explainer from Nate Hagens lays out pretty well the contexts in which EROI is and isn’t useless. The important aspects are economic and, ultimately, sociological, more than physical. Hagens argues that the upfront costs (immediate and historic), the high time discount and the intermittency of renewables counts against them in terms of full-system adoption.

That ‘full-system adoption’ phrase is important. A lot of the renewable transition case is implicitly based on marginal costs. In other words, if you’re planning to build some new electricity capacity to add a few more gigawatts to your existing grid, it may well be the case that a renewable option such as wind or solar is the cheapest way to go. But that’s not the same as saying that switching the entire generating capacity to renewables is cheapest. Hagens mentions this paper that shows a global transition to renewable energy over the next thirty years would be costlier in EROI terms than business as usual.

That could be a significant problem from a business point of view in terms of where the smart investment money is going to go. It’s probably an even more significant problem geopolitically. Take the big global players – the USA, Western Europe, Russia, China, India, Japan and a few others – who at best enjoy wary allyship and at worse are only a flashpoint or two away from outright war with each other or with other rivals. Suppose one of them were to tell another that they should take an upfront hit and transition their energy economy to renewables, no matter that its population would feel the economic pain in the near-term and only reap the full dividend long into the future. Tom Murphy has a good post about the economics of this.  The answer would be ‘you first’.

Some might think that’s just a matter of ‘soft’ human reality that’s remediable, unlike ‘hard’ physical reality. But that’s where our vaunting of science over society goes wrong. Hoekstra says that “as soon as EROI is much higher than 1 it stops being an issue”. Well, how much higher? An EROI of 1.1 is the equivalent of buying 550 litres of fuel every time you fill the 50 litre tank of a car, and throwing 500 litres away. I imagine that could prove a pretty big issue in a lot of people’s lives. Presently, according to the data Hagens presents, globally we’re at an EROI of about 11, which would likely go down to 3 in a 100% renewables scenario. Hagens doesn’t think society as presently constituted could function at that level. Sounds plausible to me, but I wouldn’t know. I’m just a jobbing social scientist turned homesteader. But if it’s true that at present we’re essentially throwing away one unit of unusable energy for every eleven units of usable energy we get, whereas in future we’ll be throwing away one for every three that we get, that doesn’t sound like useless information to me.

Now, it’s possible that some new tech will emerge that changes the transition picture. Again, I wouldn’t know (jobbing social scientist, homesteader…) So if you told me there’s joyful news and we’re on the point of replacing lithium with sodium-ion batteries which will lower the discount rate on renewable electricity, or whatever, I’d be none the wiser. But I do harbour the suspicion that being none the wiser is partly the point with some of the narratives around this tech. It looks a bit like a bait and switch tactic that diverts attention from grosser human realities and towards tech arcana where it’s easier to nerd out on the possibilities. Or pull the wool.

Let’s look at those grosser human realities. In the graph below I indicate total global energy consumption from 1965 to 2021, split between fossil and non-fossil energy sources, and then project that forward to 2050 on the (generous, I think) assumption that by 2050 we’ll need only 91% of current global energy consumption to keep us happily ticking along, but we’ll need to transition completely to non-fossils between now and then.

 

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy

The graph suggests that to achieve a 100% renewables transition by 2050 we’ll need to lose on average 16.9 exajoules of fossil energy consumption from the global energy mix each and every year between now and then. That’s more than the entire fossil energy consumption of the fifth largest energy-using country globally, Japan (15.5 EJ).

Let’s play that out in an imaginary scenario on a country by country basis. The 2022 energy figures haven’t been released yet, but if the graph is going to fit that orange downslope we have to hope that something like 16.9 EJ of fossil fuel consumption will have been swiped out last year. We can start the game gently by taking out the entire fossil fuel consumption of Japan in 2022, although that already puts us a little bit behind the curve.

Next let’s send a delegation to Moscow and ask Mr Putin to eliminate his country’s entire fossil energy use within a period of about 18 months. They’ll need good negotiating skills, but anyway.

Then let’s hop over to the USA and ask the new president, now they’ve bedded in for a bit, to cut 16.9 EJ of fossil energy consumption in their country every year for the rest of their presidential term, with another year on top so their successor can take a bit of the heat (or, in fact, remove it).

After that, India – we’ll give Mr Modi or his successor just over 18 months to cut out all the fossil fuels.

Then the big one. China gets nearly eight years to cut all its fossil energy. Good thing Mr Xi is president for life.

So now it’s 2037, we’ve taken out just the top five fossil fuel using countries and we’re about halfway there. Next year we need to take out another 16.9 EJ of fossil energy – let’s target the entire African continent, giving its governments one year to cut their collective 18 EJ of fossil fuel use, which will help us catch up with what we lost by swiping only Japan in 2022.

After that, we can aggregate various random countries to lose 16.9 EJ each year, every year, for the run up to 2050 by swiping their entire fossil energy consumption. Maybe Canada and Indonesia in 2039. The UK, Turkey and Italy in 2040. And so on until we’ve rounded up the last few stragglers. Job done.

When you frame energy transition technically in terms of things like bringing sodium-ion batteries to commercial scale or optimising inverter-based resources, it all sounds vaguely feasible. When you frame it in terms of taking out roughly the equivalent of the entire fossil energy consumption of the world’s fifth biggest energy consumer every single year for the next thirty years it all sounds vaguely impossible.

And while we’re knocking out all that fossil consumption, we’d have to be building up the renewables consumption – that big area of blue opening up on the right of the graph. Currently renewables account for 7% of total energy consumption and 38% of non-fossil fuel energy consumption, amounting to about 40 EJ of consumption annually. To make the 100% renewables transition, globally we’d have to add the equivalent of nearly half the world’s existing renewables consumption every year from now until 2050. Bear in mind, incidentally, that all this is just to keep global energy use roughly where it is at the moment. Not to transition low-energy and low-income countries to high-energy and high-income ones. And not to find a whole load of extra capacity with which to energise microbial food manufacturing.

You’ll see another downslope in grey on the graph starting in 2012. I picked that year because it was when I started this blog. Back then a few people told me that I was being over-dramatic about a small farm future, because the world would soon be transitioning to clean energy. Sometimes I’ve almost believed that myself. The graph gives a sense of how much that hasn’t happened in the intervening years. Still, that transition, the one that was around the corner in 2012 is now just past history. Or rather past non-history. All that matters now is the transition that’s just around the corner in 2023. Is it possible that will happen, by 2050? Well, we’re taught never to say some future eventuality is impossible. I’m not sure it’s always great advice, but anyway I would say that the transition is all but impossible, yes. And I think it would be better if collectively humanity acknowledged it. Because then all the smart people who are devoting themselves to modelling a 100% transition to renewables and scorning those who say otherwise could redeploy their technical skills towards making the soft path towards a small farm future as soft as it can possibly be.

My fear is that our societies aren’t going to give up on the hope of a 100% renewable transition, meaning – unfortunately – that the likeliest future we face is the hard path to agrarian localism.

Chris Smaje

Chris Smaje has coworked a small farm in Somerset, southwest England, for the last 17 years. Previously, he was a university-based social scientist, working in the Department of Sociology at the University of Surrey and the Department of Anthropology at Goldsmiths College on aspects of social policy, social identities and the environment. Since switching focus to the practice and politics of agroecology, he's written for various publications, such as The Land , Dark Mountain , Permaculture magazine and Statistics Views, as well as academic journals such as Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems and the Journal of Consumer Culture . Smaje writes the blog Small Farm Future, is a featured author at www.resilience.org and a current director of the Ecological Land Co-op. Chris' latest book is: A Small Farm Future: Making the Case for a Society Built Around Local Economies, Self-Provisioning, Agricultural Diversity, and a Shared Earth.

bneGREEN: Europe saves €100bn from the switch to renewables due to the Ukraine war

Due to the Russian-induced energy crisis, Europe poured investment into renewables in the last year resulting in a €100bn saving in energy bills. / bne IntelliNews

By Ben Aris in Berlin June 5, 2023

European electricity consumers will save some €100bn on their energy bills due to the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources caused by the Russian induced energy crisis, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report.

It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the installation of new solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind capacity will result in savings of around €100bn.

The addition of low-cost wind and solar installations has displaced approximately 230 TWh of expensive fossil fuel generation since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, consequently reducing wholesale electricity prices across all European markets. Without these capacity additions, the average wholesale electricity price in the European Union would have been 8% higher in 2022, the IEA concluded.

The decrease in Russian natural gas deliveries to the European Union following the invasion of Ukraine resulted in an 80% decline in pipeline deliveries from 2021 to 2022. This decline coincided with reduced hydro and nuclear power output in Europe. As a result, the prices of natural gas and hard coal shot up, with the average monthly natural gas price surging ten-fold and the price of hard coal quintupling between January 2021 and August 2022. These price hikes led to unprecedented levels of power generation costs from natural gas, reaching nearly €800/MWh for open-cycle gas turbines and €500/MWh for combined-cycle gas turbines.

The wholesale electricity spot market in the European Union serves as the benchmark for most electricity supply contracts, driving prices up for all consumers. The price is determined by the costliest generator required to meet demand at any given moment. Due to the substantial increases in natural gas and coal prices in 2021-2022, consumers in the wholesale market, including retailers and large companies without fixed-contract energy portfolios or strong hedging positions, had to purchase electricity at rates up to 15-20 times higher than the averages of the period between 2015 and 2020.

To counter these challenges, the European Union added nearly 90 GW of solar PV and wind capacity in 2021 and 2022. This additional capacity displaced almost 10% of hard coal and natural gas generation, effectively driving out the most expensive power plants from the market and reducing prices for all consumers. It is projected that an additional 60 GW of solar PV and wind capacity will come online in 2023, further increasing displacement to nearly 20% this year.

By analysing the relationship between hourly generation from hard coal and natural gas and wholesale electricity spot prices in several large EU economies in 2021 and 2022, a scenario was modelled to estimate the potential savings with the addition of more wind and solar PV capacity in 2023. The results indicate that without the growth in PV and wind capacity between 2021 and 2023, average wholesale electricity prices would be higher by approximately 3% in 2021, 8% in 2022 and 15% in 2023. This would lead to an overall increase in the cost of electricity supply for the entire European Union, amounting to roughly €100bn.

Notably, the savings achieved through new renewable energy capacity in Spain alone surpass the country's allocated budget of €6.3bn for a European Commission-approved temporary intervention aimed at reducing wholesale electricity prices. Similarly, the savings derived from Germany's new renewable generation capacity would cover the government's recent proposal to support electricity prices for energy-intensive industries until 2030.

The acceleration of renewable energy deployment since 2021 has provided a cost-effective solution to the economic challenges posed by the energy crisis. Long-term contracts secured through policy mechanisms and regulations ensure stable prices for most wind and solar PV power generators in Europe, shielding them from volatile electricity prices. These measures also help protect consumers from rising electricity costs.

“The total investment cost of deploying PV and wind capacity over 2021-2023 is expected to amount to about €200bn. Almost 50% of this investment cost will likely be returned in the form of savings on power consumers’ bills by as early as the end of 2023, while these power plants will continue to provide benefits for the next 20-25 years,” the IEA said.  

According to the IEA accelerated case forecast, savings could have been about 15% higher if EU capacity had been increased more rapidly, through quicker implementation of policies supporting the deployment of technologies with short lead times (i.e. distributed solar PV) and a reduction in red tape for projects at the advanced stages of permitting.