Tuesday, November 21, 2023

Weeklong negotiations for landmark treaty to end plastic pollution close, marred in disagreements

CARLOS MUREITHI
Updated Mon, November 20, 2023 




A boy walks on the plastic waste at the Badhwar Park beach on the Arabian Sea coast on World Environment Day in Mumbai, India, June 5, 2023. Negotiators at UN-led talks in Nairobi have failed to agree on how to advance work towards the development of a global treaty to end plastic pollution. Environmental advocates say some oil-producing governments used stalling tactics designed to ultimately weaken the treaty.
 (AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade, File)

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The latest round of negotiations to craft a treaty to end global plastic pollution closed late on Sunday after talks in Nairobi, Kenya, where delegates failed to reach a consensus on how to advance a draft of the agreement after a week of strained negotiations.

Environmental advocates criticized the outcome of the weeklong United Nations-led meeting on plastic pollution, saying oil-producing countries successfully employed stalling tactics designed to weaken the agreement.

The Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for Plastics is mandated with creating the first international, legally binding treaty on plastic pollution in five rounds of negotiations.


At this third round of talks, delegates were expected to discuss a draft published in September that represented the views from the first two meetings and narrow down options.

Member states decided to move forward with a revision of the draft, which has become longer due to new proposals during this round and will be even more difficult to advance, participants said. States also failed to reach a consensus on intersessional work to discuss crucial parts of the draft ahead of the fourth round of negotiations.

But at the close of the session, outgoing negotiation chair Gustavo Adolfo Meza-Cuadra Velasquez described the round as “a significant step forward.” He noted, however, that “much remains to be done both in narrowing down our differences and in developing technical work to inform our negotiations.”

Throughout the week, delegates suggested options to strengthen proposed global rules across the entire lifecycle of plastic from production to disposal. A coalition of “high-ambition” governments led by Rwanda and Norway hope to eradicate plastic pollution by 2040 by having a treaty that guarantees interventions throughout the whole life cycle of plastics, including reducing output and restricting some chemicals used in the plastics industry.

But some oil-producing countries advocated for shifting previously agreed mandates of the agreement, like changing the focus from the entire lifecycle of plastic to waste management, and having voluntary measures at national levels to fight plastic pollution, instead of global measures.

Environmentalists disagree.

“The science is very clear, the data is very clear, and the moral imperative is very clear," said Graham Forbes, global plastics campaign lead at Greenpeace. "You cannot solve the plastic pollution crisis if you do not massively cut plastic production."

Ana LĂȘ Rocha, director of the global plastics program at the Global Alliance for Incinerator Alternatives, said “the bullies of the negotiations pushed their way through, despite the majority countries, with leadership from the African Bloc and other nations in the Global South, in support of an ambitious treaty.”

But Stewart Harris, a spokesperson of the International Council of Chemical Associations, sees an opportunity for the treaty to accelerate circularity, or the reuse of plastics. He hoped the agreement will set up “something like a requirement for governments to establish circularity targets as part of their national action plans.”

The world produces more than 430 million tons of plastic annually, and two thirds of that are products that are disposed of soon after use, becoming waste and, often getting into the human food chain, according to the United Nations. Global plastic waste is expected to nearly triple by 2060, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Plastics are often made from oil, or other planet-warming fossil fuels.

More than 1,900 participants from 161 countries, including government officials, representatives of intergovernmental organizations, and civil society members, took part in the talks. A total of 143 lobbyists registered for the negotiations, according to an analysis by the Center for International Environmental Law.

Tadesse Amera, co-chair of the International Pollutants Elimination Network, worried that lobbyists could “divert science from independent science to industry-based science” and “prevent the treaty from protecting human health in the environment.”

This week’s talks were the third of five rounds. The next talks will take place in Ottawa, Canada in April 2024. Delegates have until the end of 2024 to produce a final draft.

Jacob Kean-Hammerson, an ocean campaigner at the Environmental Investigation Agency, described the remaining path to create the treaty as “treacherous.”

“These negotiations ended with more questions than answers about how we can bridge the political divide and craft a treaty that stimulates positive change," he said.

Forbes, who led Greenpeace’s delegation at the talks, said the stakes will be higher in the coming negotiation rounds.

“We are charging towards catastrophe,” he said. “We have one year to turn this around, and to ensure that we are celebrating our collective success instead of dooming ourselves to a dark and dangerous future.”

___

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U.N. plastic treaty talks grapple with re-use, recycle, reduce debate

Duncan Miriri
Updated Sun, November 19, 2023 

 A boy walks on a beach polluted by plastic trash in Bali

NAIROBI (Reuters) -A third round of United Nations negotiations to try to deliver the world's first treaty to control plastic pollution has drawn more than 500 proposals from governments, participants said on Sunday.

Negotiators, who spent a week meeting in the Kenyan capital at talks known as INC3, have until the end of next year to strike a deal for the control of plastics, which produce an estimated 400 million tonnes of waste every year.

The plastics industry, oil and petrochemical exporters, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, have said a global deal should promote recycling and re-use of plastic, but environmental campaigners and some governments say much less needs to be produced in the first place.

Environmental group Greenpeace said a successful deal would require the United States and the European Union to show greater leadership than they have so far.

"The hard truth is that INC3 has failed to deliver on its core objective: delivering a mandate to prepare a first draft of a treaty text," Graham Forbes, head of delegation for Greenpeace, said.

"This is not progress. This is chaos," he said referring to the number of submissions.

Two more rounds of talks will take place next year to try to finalise the deal. A proposal to hold an extra session before the next round in Canada, known as intersessional talks, failed to advance in the final plenary meeting, participants said.

Bethanie Carney Almroth, an eco-toxicologist at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, who was involved in the talks, said the world was confronting a huge challenge.

"Plastics are connected to climate change, to biodiversity loss and other major threats and crises that we as the human population are facing on the planet," she said.

There was no immediate comment from the United Nations.

LESS THAN 10% OF PLASTIC WASTE RECYCLED

Stewart Harris, a spokesman for the International Council of Chemicals Association, an industry body that favours measures like re-using plastic containers as opposed to production curbs, said the Nairobi talks had delivered good ideas.

A proposal by Switzerland and Uruguay to hold more discussions on curbing harmful polymers and chemicals of concern garnered support from more than 100 members states.

But some participants were disappointed by what they called the lack of a clear path towards an effective deal.

"Major fossil fuel producers and exporters stalled efforts to move forward in an efficient manner," said Tadesse Amera, co-chair of the International Pollutants Elimination Network (IPEN), a global network of non-governmental organisations.

Less than 10% of plastic waste is recycled, the U.N. Environment Programme says, while at least 14 million tonnes end up in oceans every year, the International Union for Conservation of Nature says.

Canada, Kenya, and the European Union were among those who said plastic production needed to be limited, while a coalition of Russia, Saudi Arabia and others has sought to emphasise recycling.

Members of the Saudi delegation at the talks declined to talk to Reuters, while Russian delegates could not immediately be reached for comment.

(Reporting by Duncan Miriri; Editing by George Obulutsa and Barbara Lewis)

Frustration as latest talks on global plastic treaty close

Nick PERRY and Dylan GAMBA
Sun, November 19, 2023 

Delegates at the final day of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution meeting in Nairobi on Sunday (Tony KARUMBA)

The latest negotiations toward a global plastic treaty concluded late Sunday with disagreement about how the pact should work and frustration from environment groups over delays and lack of progress.

Negotiators spent a week at the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) headquarters in Nairobi haggling over a draft treaty to tackle the growing problem of plastic pollution found everywhere from ocean depths to mountaintops to human blood.

It is the third time negotiators have met since 175 nations pledged early last year to fast-track talks in the hope of finalising a treaty by 2024.

The meeting in Nairobi was supposed to advance the process by fine-tuning the draft treaty and starting discussions about what concrete measures should target pollution from plastic, which is made from fossil fuels.

But the treaty specifics were never really addressed, with a small number of oil-producing nations -– particularly Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia –- accused of employing stalling tactics seen at previous negotiation rounds to hinder progress.

"Unsurprisingly, certain countries are blocking progress on every term, playing obstruction and procedural manoeuvres," Carroll Muffett from the Center for International Environmental Law told AFP.

- Lacking leadership -

In closed-door meetings, so many new proposals were put forward that the text -- instead of being revised and streamlined -- ballooned in size over the course of the week, according to observers following the talks.

Graham Forbes from Greenpeace said the meeting had "failed" its objectives and urged governments to take a harder line in future negotiations on nations not acting in good faith.

"A successful treaty is still within reach but it will require a level of leadership and courage from big, more ambitious countries that we simply have not seen yet," he told AFP.

There was anger directed at UNEP, with the civil society alliance group GAIA accusing the hosts of overseeing "an undisciplined and meandering" meeting that allowed a minority to hold proceedings "hostage".

UNEP said "substantial" progress had been made by nearly 2,000 delegates in attendance.

The International Council of Chemical Associations, the main industry group for global petrochemical and plastic companies, said the process had improved an "underwhelming" draft and jostling between governments was critical for treaty building.

"We (now) have a document -- a draft text -- that is much more inclusive of the range of ideas," spokesman Stewart Harris told AFP.

The plastics meeting comes just before crucial climate talks in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates later this month that are set to be dominated by debate over the future of fossil fuels.

Global demand for plastic has seen production double in 20 years and at current rates, it could triple by 2060 without action, according to the OECD.

Ninety percent of plastic is not recycled, with most dumped in nature or improperly burned.

Environment groups have long argued that without curbs on the manufacturing of new plastic any treaty would be weak.

- Behind schedule -

Around 60 "high ambition" nations have called for a treaty that eliminates some plastic products through bans and phase outs, and enshrines rules to reduce plastic production and consumption.

But in Nairobi, some nations expressed reluctance to support cuts on plastic production, a concern recognised by the incoming chair of the negotiation committee.

"We are not here to end all plastic, we are here to end plastic pollution," Ecuador's Luis Vayas Valdivieso told delegates after his election on Sunday.

Divisions also sharpened over whether treaty terms should be legally binding or voluntary.

Eirik Lindebjerg from the World Wide Fund for Nature said despite frustrations the process had not been derailed, and a majority of countries still supported a strong treaty.

"I wouldn't call the meeting a failure. We are behind schedule, but we are not off track," he told AFP.

There are two final rounds of negotiations in 2024: the first in Canada in April, and a second in South Korea in November, with the goal of adopting a treaty by mid-2025.

np-dyg/bp

Plastics treaty talks yield 'chaos': Greenpeace

Reuters Videos
Mon, November 20, 2023 


STORY: Talks aimed at delivering the world's first treaty to control plastic pollution have drawn more than 500 proposals from governments, participants said on Sunday (November 20).

Negotiators, who have spent a week at U.N. talks in Kenya's capital Nairobi, have until the end of next year to strike a deal.

But the number of submissions was described as "not progress" but "chaos" by the head of Greenpeace's delegation, Graham Forbes.

"We are talking in circles and pandering to a few countries that are not negotiating in good faith and all the while the fossil fuel industry is expanding plastic production at the expense of our climate, biodiversity and human health.”

Plastic produces an estimated 400 million metric tonnes of waste each year.

But how the plastics treaty should tackle this waste has been a cause for debate.

Environmental campaigners and some governments argue that you'll get less waste if you produce less plastic in the first place.

But the plastics industry, perhaps unsurprisingly, doesn't agree.

Nor do oil and petrochemical exporters like Russia and Saudi Arabia.

They say a global deal should promote recycling and re-use.

Stewart Harris of the International Council of Chemicals Association said the Nairobi talks had delivered good ideas.

"We now have in the document a wide range of views that will carry forward into INC4, and at INC4, that’s where we expect governments to start to narrow down and identify areas of consensus."

Campaigners said major fossil fuel producers and exporters had stalled efforts to make meaningful progress.

Less than 10% of plastic waste is recycled, the U.N. Environment Programme says, and at least 14 million metric tonnes is estimated to end up in oceans every year.

Two more rounds of talks will take place next year to try to finalize the deal.
Deep sea explorer Don Walsh, part of 2-man crew to first reach deepest point of ocean, dies at 92

MARK THIESSEN
Mon, November 20, 2023 






In this photo provided by the U.S. Navy, Navy Lt. Don Walsh and explorer Jacques Piccard descend to the deepest spot in the world's ocean, in 1960, a feat not repeated again by another human being until 2012, when movie director James Cameron returned to the same spot in a small submarine. Walsh, an explorer who in 1960 was part of this two-man crew that made the first voyage to the deepest part of the ocean, has died. He was 92. Walsh died Sunday, Nov. 12, 2023, at his home in Myrtle Point, Ore., his daughter, Elizabeth Walsh, said Monday, Nov. 20. 
(U.S. Navy via AP)


Retired Navy Capt. Don Walsh, an explorer who in 1960 was part of a two-man crew that made the first voyage to the deepest part of the ocean — to the “snuff-colored ooze” at the bottom of the Pacific's Mariana Trench — has died. He was 92.

Walsh died Nov. 12 at his home in Myrtle Point, Oregon, his daughter, Elizabeth Walsh, said Monday.

In January 1960, Walsh, then a U.S. Navy lieutenant, and Swiss engineer Jacques Piccard were sealed inside a 150-ton, steel-hulled bathyscaphe named the Trieste to attempt to dive nearly 7 miles (11 kilometers) below the surface. A bathyscaphe is a self-propelled submersible used in deep-sea dives.

The two men descended to 35,800 feet (11,000 meters) in the Challenger Deep, the deepest point of the Earth's oceans, part of the Mariana Trench, about 200 miles (320 kilometers) off Guam in the Pacific.

After a descent of about five hours, the steel-hulled submersible touched down on what the log described as the “snuff-colored ooze” of silt stewed up by the ship reaching the bottom.

When they reached the seafloor, the two men shook hands.

“I knew we were making history,” Walsh told The World newspaper of Coos Bay, Oregon, in 2010. “It was a special day.”

After spending 20 minutes on the floor and confirming there was life there when a fish swam by, they began their 3 1/2-hour ascent.

“We were astounded to find higher marine life forms down there at all,” Piccard said before his death in 2008.

Piccard designed the ship with his father, and they sold it to the U.S. Navy in 1958. Walsh was temporarily serving in San Diego when Piccard requested volunteers to operate the vehicle. Walsh stepped forward.

“There was an opportunity to pioneer,” Walsh told The World. “I wasn’t sure what I was going to be doing, but I knew I’d be at sea. It wasn’t until later they told us what they had in store.”

Walsh was born Nov. 2, 1931, in Berkeley, California. He joined the Navy at age 17, and graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy. He earned a master’s degree and a doctorate in oceanography from Texas A&M.

He served in the Navy for 24 years, retiring with the rank of captain and serving on various submarines. He then became a professor at the University of Southern California before opening his own marine consulting business in 1976.

In 2010 he received the Navy Distinguished Public Service Award and served on many boards, including as a policy adviser to the U.S. State Department.

“Walsh was a Navy officer, a submariner, an adventurer, and an oceanographer. To his family, we extend our deepest condolences and gratitude for allowing him to explore, and share his extraordinary experiences and knowledge with us,” Chief of Naval Research Rear Adm. Kurt Rothenhaus said in a Navy press release.

Walsh traveled the world, including many trips to Antarctica, where the Walsh Spur pointed rock is named in his honor.

His daughter said one of the earliest lessons she and her brother Kelly learned from their parents is that the world is not a scary place — a lesson that was reinforced because their parents always came home after their various travels.

He encouraged them to venture out, as well.

“Don’t be scared of it and go have adventures and learn things and meet people,” she recalled him teaching. “He’s certainly instilled an enthusiastic curiosity about the world in Kelly and I, and that’s a tremendous gift.”

In 2020, Kelly Walsh made his own journey to the bottom of the Challenger Deep in a vessel owned and piloted by Dallas explorer Victor Vescovo.

“An extraordinary explorer, oceanographer, and human being. I’m so honored I could call him my friend,” Vescovo posted on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, the day after Don Walsh’s death.

In addition to his children, Walsh is also survived by his wife of 61 years, Joan.

Cocoa prices hover at 45-year highs as lagging harvests kick off 3rd season of shortages


Filip De Mott
Mon, November 20, 2023

Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Cocoa prices are hovering around 45-year highs as futures trade over $4,000 per metric ton.

Bad weather and concerns over crop disease led to lagging harvests, Bloomberg reported.

Similar factors have also dragged down the supply of sugar, driving its price up.


Cocoa prices are trading at levels not seen in 45 years, as a supply crunch in the commodity drags on for another year.

Prices dipped on Monday, but a string of earlier gains helped push US cocoa futures above $4,000 per metric ton, contributing to an appreciation of over 40% for the year.

It's a price not seen since 1978, Bloomberg reported, and surpasses the 2011 peak that resulted from that year's Ivory Coast export ban on cocoa. But it's still well below the 1977's high of $5,379 per metric ton.

This time around, delayed harvests are exacerbating shortages that have been ongoing for two years, and the supply crunch is heading into a third year.

Harvesting seasons in both Ghana and the Ivory Coast have fallen behind the pace set last year, with bad weather and crop disease concerns driving the lag.

In late October, bean deliveries to Ivory Coast ports were 16% behind this season, a source told Bloomberg.

Outlooks also remain dim as El Nino threatens to dry out West Africa, a detriment to growers. This comes against rising global demand, with processing improving in Europe, Brazil, and the Ivory Coast.

Poor weather and dismal harvests have also weighed on commodities such as sugar, driving its price to a high not seen for over a decade. Poor production in India has led to export curbs on the commodity, in the government's bid to keep domestic sugar prices stable.

GM
Cruise CEO resigns after all of the company's robotaxis were forced to stop operating



Associated Press
Mon, November 20, 2023 

Cruise's CEO resigned late Sunday.

Cruise recently lost its robotaxi permit in California after incidents involving its autonomous cars.

Earlier this year, a Cruise vehicle ran over a pedestrian, killing them.


Kyle Vogt has resigned as CEO of Cruise, General Motors' autonomous vehicle unit, as questions build about the safety of self-driving cars.

Vogt's decision to step down, announced late Sunday, follows a recent recall of all 950 Cruise vehicles to update software after one of them dragged a pedestrian to the side of a San Francisco street in early October. The California Department of Motor Vehicles revoked the license for Cruise.

The company earlier announced it had paused operations for a review by independent experts.

"The results of our ongoing reviews will inform additional next steps as we work to build a better Cruise centered around safety, transparency and trust," the company said in a statement. "We will continue to advance AV technology in service of our mission to make transportation safer, cleaner and more accessible."

Cruise won approval to transport fare-paying passengers last year. Since then, the autonomous vehicles have drawn complaints for making unexpected, traffic-clogging stops that critics say threaten to inconvenience other travelers and imperil public safety.

Late last year, U.S. safety regulators said they were investigating reports that autonomous robotaxis run by Cruise can stop too quickly or unexpectedly quit moving, potentially stranding passengers.

Problems at Cruise could slow the deployment of fully autonomous vehicles that carry passengers without human drivers on board. It also could bring stronger federal regulation of the vehicles, which are carrying passengers in more cities nationwide.

Cruise had been testing 300 robotaxis during the day when it could only give rides for free, and 100 robotaxis at night when it was allowed to charge for rides in less congested parts of San Francisco. Vogt earlier said most collisions were caused by inattentive or impaired human drivers, not the AVs.

Cruise's statement said its board had accepted Vogt's resignation. Mo Elshenawy, Cruise's executive vice president of engineering, will become president and chief technology officer. It said Craig Glidden also will serve as president and continue as chief administrative officer for Cruise, an appointment announced earlier.

GM acquired a majority stake in Cruise when it was a startup in 2016. The company invested to take 80% stake in the company in May 2021.

Vogt attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and was a co-founder of Twitch, an interactive livestreaming service for content including gaming, entertainment, sports and music. Amazon acquired Twitch for about $1 billion in 2014.




US transport chief aims to ensure Cruise, other self-driving vehicles safe

Updated Mon, November 20, 2023 

 U.S. Transportation Secretary Buttigieg listens as President Biden speaks at the White House in Washington, U.S.

By David Shepardson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said on Monday the federal government will do everything it can using existing regulatory powers to ensure that General Motors robotaxi unit Cruise and other autonomous vehicles are deployed safely.

Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt resigned on Sunday, a day after apologizing to staff as the company undergoes a safety review of its U.S. fleet. Cruise pulled all of its vehicles from U.S. testing after an Oct. 2 accident in San Francisco that involved another vehicle and ended with one of Cruise's self-driving taxis dragging a pedestrian.

"We're going to do everything we can with the authorities we do have, which are not trivial," Buttigieg told reporters.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), part of Buttigieg's department, has opened an investigation into whether Cruise is taking sufficient precautions to safeguard pedestrians.

In October, the California Department of Motor Vehicles ordered Cruise to remove its driverless cars from state roads, calling them a risk to the public and saying the company had misrepresented the safety of its technology.

Two dozen unions including the Transport Workers Union of America, International Brotherhood of Teamsters and United Auto Workers this month urged Buttigieg to do more to ensure the safety of autonomous vehicles (AVs), saying that "NHTSA must initiate an industry-wide investigation to determine the true extent of the safety failures behind the scenes."

Cruise's woes are a setback for an industry dependent on public trust and the cooperation of regulators. The unit had in recent months touted ambitious plans to expand to more cities, offering fully autonomous taxi rides.

Cruise competes with Alphabet's Waymo in deploying autonomous vehicles and had been testing hundreds in several cities across the United States, notably its home of San Francisco.

(Reporting by David Shepardson; Editing by Will Dunham and Chizu Nomiyama)

Controversial 'robotaxi' startup loses CEO

Andrew Paul
Mon, November 20, 2023 

GM suspended all Cruise robotaxi services across the US earlier this month.


Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt announced his resignation from the controversial robotaxi startup on Sunday evening. The co-founder’s sudden departure arrives after months of public and political backlash relating to the autonomous vehicle fleet’s safety, and hints at future issues for the company purchased by General Motors in 2016 for over $1 billion.

Vogt’s resignation follows months of documented hazardous driving behaviors from Cruise’s autonomous vehicle fleet, including injuring pedestrians, delaying emergency responders, and failing to detect children. Cruise’s Golden State tenure itself lasted barely two months following a California Public Utilities Commission greenlight on 24/7 robotaxi services in August. Almost immediately, residents and city officials began documenting instances of apparent traffic pileups, blocked roadways, and seemingly reckless driving involving Cruise and Google-owned Waymo robotaxis. Meanwhile, Cruise representatives including Vogt aggressively campaigned against claims of an unsafe vehicle fleet.

[Related: San Francisco is pushing back against the rise of robotaxis.]

“Anything that we do differently than humans is being sensationalized,” Vogt told The Washington Post in September.

On October 2, a Cruise robotaxi failed to avoid hitting a woman pedestrian first struck by another car, subsequently dragging her 20 feet down the road. GM issued a San Francisco moratorium on Cruise operations three weeks later, followed by a nationwide expansion of the suspension on November 6.

But even with Cruise on an indefinite hiatus, competitors like Waymo and Zoox continue testing autonomous taxis across San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Austin, and elsewhere to varying degrees of success. As The New York Times reports, Waymo’s integration into Phoenix continues to progress smoothly. Meanwhile, Austin accidents became so concerning that city officials felt the need to establish an internal task force over the summer to help log and process autonomous vehicle incidents.

[Related: Self-driving taxis allegedly blocked an ambulance and the patient died.]

In a thread posted to X over the weekend, Vogt called his experience helming Cruise “amazing,” and expressed gratitude to the company and its employees while telling them to “remember why this work matters.”

“The status quo on our roads sucks, but together we’ve proven there is something far better around the corner,” wrote Vogt before announcing his plans to spend time with his family and explore new ideas.

“Thanks for the great ride!” Vogt concluded.

GM Cruise CEO Quits Amid Robotaxi Fiasco

James Gilboy
Mon, November 20, 2023 


Cruise AV in San Francisco

General Motors' automated driving division Cruise has suffered another blow as one of its founders departs. Formerly one of the leaders in driving automation, Cruise has been in a slump since one of its vehicles hit and dragged away a pedestrian in San Francisco.

Kyle Vogt, one of Cruise's two founders and later its CEO, declared Sunday on X that he had quit the company a decade after starting it. Vogt's departure likely stems from the Oct. 2 incident wherein a Cruise AV dragged away a pedestrian knocked into the vehicle's path by a hit-and-run. Cruise did not disclose that its vehicle had dragged the pedestrian 20 feet under the car while initially corresponding with regulators. When this information came to light, California suspended Cruise's permit to operate driverless vehicles on public streets.


Cruise also paused operations of its "supervised" AV fleet thereafter, which seemingly returned to service this month according to the company blog. However, employee morale at Cruise remains low according to TechCrunch, which reports the company has yet to find a replacement CEO and has laid off contracted workers.

On top of that, Cruise continues to hemorrhage cash, losing $728 million in Q3 and $8 billion since inception according to Reuters. GM CEO Mary Barra has remained supportive of Cruise, but GM's technical partner Honda has reportedly frozen further investment in the firm.

Cruise was founded in 2013 when vehicle automation looked like a surefire near-future technology. While pioneer Tesla pledged to have a driverless vehicle that could cross the country solo by 2017, the closest a publicly sold car has gotten is Mercedes partial eyes-off assist, which only arrived this year. Vehicular autonomy looks further out than ever, and increasingly like a money sink with little potential for payoff—if any at all.

Explainer-GM-owned Cruise's wrong turn could slow robotaxi push

Reuters
Mon, November 20, 2023 

The San Francisco skyline is seen behind a self-driving GM Bolt EV during a media event where Cruise, GMÕs autonomous car unit, showed off its self-driving cars in San Francisco

(Reuters) - U.S. robotaxi operators could face increased regulatory scrutiny after an accident involving Cruise, the self-driving cab business of General Motors, forced the company to pause service.

In October, one of Cruise's driverless cabs was not able to stop in time from hitting a pedestrian who had been struck by a hit-and-run driver, raising safety concerns around the use of robotaxis.

Here's a quick rundown on the sector:

What are robotaxis?

Robotaxis are autonomous self-driving cabs which require no human interaction to operate the vehicle. The ride-hailing service can be availed through mobile apps.

How does it work?

The vehicles use machine-learning models and advanced systems to process information from technologies such as cameras and LiDAR sensors, as well as pre-existing data, to navigate around specified areas without a human driver required to make decisions.

When did driverless cabs become a reality?

Alphabet's Waymo was the first to kick off robotaxis in the United States in 2017.

Cruise followed with its first driverless ride service last year in San Francisco, and slowly expanded to include Phoenix, Arizona, and Austin, Texas.

Companies offering the service

Robotaxi services are currently offered in specific areas within the United States by Waymo, Uber Technologies and Lyft.

While Cruise paused its U.S. services for a safety review, it continues to undertake testing in closed course training environments, along with public testing overseas.

Amazon.com is also testing its robotaxi service, Zoox, to handle traffic lights, intersections and drive at speeds of up to 35 miles per hour.

When will robotaxis become mainstream?

While robotaxis offer the convenience of lower operating costs for cab operators, there are regulatory approvals and technological hurdles that need to be overcome before the cabs are widely adopted across states.

Lucid's CEO in 2021 said it was likely to take a decade before self-driving taxis would be deployed on roads, and they weren't "coming anytime soon even with the most advanced sensing systems in the world".

The use of driverless cabs also raises the prospect of job losses and could attract pushback from unions.

Are robotaxis safer than other cars?

On paper, robotaxis are supposed to offer better safety due to their advanced machine-learning models and a host of sensors designed to monitor traffic activity.

Newer models of the vehicles were also tuned to offer smoother braking and acceleration curves to give passengers a better ride.

However, the unpredictability of human drivers and pedestrians sometimes makes it difficult for the current autonomous driving tech to take quick decisions and navigate around hazards.

Regulatory hurdles facing robotaxis

Commercializing fully autonomous vehicles, especially robotaxis, has been harder than expected with tough regulations, complicated technology and heavy investments forcing some to cut jobs.

Some companies such as Ford and Volkswagen-backed Argo AI have also shut shop.

(Reporting by Nathan Gomes in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath)
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Cruise co-founder, CEO Kyle Vogt resigns
Aaron Tolentino
Sun, November 19, 2023 


SAN FRANCISCO (KRON) — The Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of San Francisco-based autonomous vehicle company Cruise has resigned. Kyle Vogt, who is also Cruise’s co-founder, announced his resignation Sunday evening on X.

The announcement comes nearly one month after Cruise announced it will pull all of its driverless cars off the streets nationwide. The move was to “take steps to rebuild public trust” after Cruise’s autonomous vehicles have caused problems in San Francisco streets, including traffic jams.

Vogt founded the company 10 years ago, and Cruise has recorded more than 250,000 driverless rides across multiple cities, the company’s now-former CEO said on X. No announcement has been made on who will replace Vogt as Cruise’s CEO.

“Cruise is still just getting started, and I believe it has a great future ahead,” Vogt wrote on X. “The folks at Cruise are brilliant, driven, and resilient. They’re executing on a solid, multi-year roadmap and an exciting product vision. I’m thrilled to see what Cruise has in store next!

“As for what’s next for me, I plan to spend time with my family and explore some new ideas. Thanks for the great ride!”
UN report says world is racing to well past warming limit as carbon emissions rise instead of plunge

SETH BORENSTEIN
Updated Mon, November 20, 2023 

AES Indiana Petersburg Generating Station, a coal-fired power plant, operates in Petersburg, Ind., on Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2023. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel) 

Earth is speeding to 2.5 to 2.9 degrees Celsius (4.5 to 5.2 degrees Fahrenheit) of global warming since pre-industrial times, set to blow well past the agreed-upon international climate threshold, a United Nations report calculated.

To have an even money shot at keeping warming to the 1.5-degree Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) limit adopted by the 2015 Paris climate agreement, countries have to slash their emissions by 42% by the end of the decade, said the U.N. Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap report issued Monday. Carbon emissions from the burning of coal, oil and gas rose 1.2% last year, the report said.

This year Earth got a taste of what’s to come, said the report, which sets the table for international climate talks later this month.

Through the end of September, the daily global average temperature exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above mid-19th century levels on 86 days this year, the report said. But that increased to 127 days because nearly all of the first two weeks of November and all of October reached or exceeded 1.5 degrees, according to the European climate service Copernicus. That's 40% of the days so far this year.

On Friday, the globe hit 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees) above pre-industrial levels for the first time in recorded history, according to Copernicus Deputy Director Samantha Burgess.

“It’s really an indication that we are already seeing a change, an acceleration,” said report lead author Anne Olhoff of Denmark’s climate think tank Concito. “Based on what science tells us, this is just like a whisper. What will be in the future will be more like a roar.”

It's dangerous already, said UNEP Director Inger Andersen.

“Temperatures are hitting new heights, while extreme weather events are occurring more and more often, developing faster and becoming much more intense,” Andersen said. The new report “tells us that it's going to take a massive and urgent shift to avoid these records falling year after year.”

The 1.5-degree goal is based on a time period measured over many years, not days, scientists said. Earlier reports put Earth reaching that longer term limit in early 2029 without dramatic emission changes.

To keep that from happening, the countries of the world have to come up with more stringent goals to cut emissions of carbon dioxide and implement policies to act on those goals, Olhoff said.

In the past two years only nine countries have come up with new goals, so that hasn’t moved the needle, but some countries, including the United States and those in Europe, have put policies in place that slightly improved the outlook, she said.

The United States’ Inflation Reduction Act, which has $375 billion in spending on clean energy, by 2030 would reduce yearly emissions of carbon dioxide by about 1 billion metric tons, Olhoff said.

That sounds like a lot, but the world in 2022 spewed 57.4 billion metric tons of greenhouse gases. Current country pledges would trim that to 55 billion metric tons, and to limit warming to the 1.5 degree mark emissions in 2030 have to be down to 33 billion metric tons. That's an “emissions gap” of 22 billion metric tons.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said “the emissions gap is more like an emissions canyon — a canyon littered with broken promises, broken lives and broken records.”

That’s why the report said the chance of keeping warming at or under 1.5 degrees is about one-in-seven or about 14%, “very, very slim indeed,” Olhoff said.

If the world wants to settle for a warming limit of 2 degrees Celsius — a secondary threshold in the Paris agreement — it only has to trim emissions down to 41 billion metric tons, with a gap of 16 billion metric tons from now, the report said.

Because the world has already warmed nearly 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the mid-19th century, the report’s projections would mean another 1.3 to 1.7 degrees Celsius (2.3 to 3.1 degrees Fahrenheit) warming by the end of this century.

For two years countries have known they have to come up with more ambitious emission cuts targets if the world wants to limit warming to 1.5 degrees, but “none of the large emitters have changed their pledges,” said study co-author Niklas Hohne, a scientist at the New Climate Institute in Germany.

That’s why for the past few years the grim outlook from annual Emissions Gap reports barely changed, Olhoff said.

This year’s emissions gap report is accurate yet not surprising and the projected temperature range fits with other groups’ calculations, said Climate Analytics scientist Bill Hare, who wasn’t part of the report.

Guterres reiterated his call for countries to phase out the use of fossil fuels in time to keep the 1.5 degree limit alive, saying “otherwise we're simply inflating the lifeboats while breaking the oars.”

“We know now that the impacts of climate change, of global warming of somewhere between 2.5 and 3 degrees Celsius are going to be massive,” Olhoff said in an interview. “It’s basically not a future I think anybody would want for their children and grandchildren and so forth. The good news, of course, is that we can act and we know what we have to do.”

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Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment.

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Follow Seth Borenstein on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @borenbears

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Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.


Climate on track to warm by nearly 3C without aggressive actions, UN report finds


Mon, November 20, 2023

Smoke rises from chimneys at a factory in the port of Dunkirk

By Gloria Dickie

LONDON (Reuters) -Countries' current emissions pledges to limit climate change would still put the world on track to warm by nearly 3 degrees Celsius this century, according to a United Nations analysis released Monday.

The annual Emissions Gap report, which assesses countries' promises to tackle climate change compared with what is needed, finds the world faces between 2.5C (4.5F) and 2.9C (5.2F) of warming above preindustrial levels if governments do not boost climate action.

At 3C of warming, scientists predict the world could pass several catastrophic points of no return, from the runaway melting of ice sheets to the Amazon rainforest drying out.

"Present trends are racing our planet down a dead-end 3C temperature rise," said U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. "The emissions gap is more like an emissions canyon."

World leaders will soon meet in Dubai for the annual U.N. climate summit COP28 with the aim of keeping the Paris Agreement warming target of 1.5C alive.

But the new U.N. report does little to inspire hope that this goal remains in reach, finding that planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions must fall by 42% by 2030 to hold warming at 1.5C (2.7F).

Even in the most optimistic emissions scenario, the chance of now limiting warming to 1.5C is just 14% — adding to a growing body of scientific evidence suggesting the goal is dead.

Global greenhouse gas emissions rose by 1.2% from 2021 to 2022, reaching a record 57.4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

The report assessed countries' Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which they are required to update every five years, to determine how much the world might warm if these plans were fully implemented.

It compares unconditional pledges — promises with no strings attached, which would lead to a 2.9C temperature rise — to conditional pledges that would hold warming to 2.5C.

"That is basically unchanged compared with last year's report," said Anne Olhoff, chief scientific editor of the report.

The anticipated level of warming is slightly higher than 2022 projections, which then pointed toward a rise of between 2.4C and 2.6C by 2100, because the 2023 report ran simulations on more climate models.

However, the world has made progress since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015. Warming projections based on emissions at that time "were way higher than they are now", Olhoff said.

(Reporting by Gloria Dickie; Editing by Jan Harvey)

UN:
 World on track to double warming limit this century

Zack Budryk
THE HILL
Mon, November 20, 2023 

The world is on track to reach nearly 3 degrees Celsius of warming this century, double the United Nations’s threshold, even if developed nations meet their current emissions pledges, according to a report the U.N. issued Monday.

In its annual Emissions Gap report, the U.N. Environment Program (UNEP) projected that by the end of the century, the world will warm by up to 2.9 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels absent further action. UNEP estimated that fully implementing all of the Paris Climate Agreement’s unconditional nationally determined contributions (NDCs) would put the globe on track to warm by 2.9 degrees this century, while implementing the conditional NDCs would result in a 2.5-degree increase.

The U.N. identified some progress on emissions. In 2015, the year of the Paris Climate Agreement, the world was on track to up greenhouse gas emissions by 16 percent by 2030. The new report indicates that figure is down to 3 percent.

The report projects that to limit warming to the 1.5-degree threshold, greenhouse gas emissions must be cut by at least 42 percent by the end of the decade. Emissions must fall 28 percent to stay within the 2-degree limit of the Paris Agreement.

“Present trends are racing our planet down a dead-end three-degree temperature rise. In short, the report shows that the emissions gap is more like an emissions canyon. A canyon littered with broken promises, broken lives, and broken records,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a Monday press conference. ”All of this is a failure of leadership, a betrayal of the vulnerable, and a massive missed opportunity. Renewables have never been cheaper or more accessible.”

The report comes as nations are set to convene in Dubai for the COP28 climate conference at the end of November. It also follows the warmest summer on record, followed by a similarly record-breaking September that climatologists say is likely to presage the warmest overall year on record.



Climate on track to warm by nearly 3C - UN report

Reuters Videos
Mon, November 20, 2023 


STORY: (U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres) "Present trends are racing our planet down a dead-end 3C temperature rise."

The world is on track to warm by nearly 3 degrees Celsius this century.

That's according to a new United Nations analysis, released ahead of the COP28 climate summit in the United Arab Emirates.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres:

"The report shows that the emissions gap is more like an emissions canyon."

The annual Emissions Gap report assesses countries' promises to tackle climate change compared with what is needed.

Anne Olhoff is the Chief Scientific Editor of this report:

"Based on what countries are doing right now, if they continue with the current efforts of climate mitigation, then we're looking at limiting temperature increase to three degrees throughout the century. With the climate promises for 2030, we're looking at an increase of between 2.5 and 2.9 degrees Celsius. So that's a massive global warming and a lot, way beyond the Paris Agreement."

At 3 degrees Celsius of warming, scientists predict the world could pass several catastrophic points of no return, from the runaway melting of ice sheets to the Amazon rainforest drying out.

“We will see maybe ten times as many extreme weather events in terms of extreme temperatures. We will see more heavy precipitation and of course, lots of damages following such as wildfires and so forth."

World leaders will soon meet in Dubai for the COP28 summit with the aim of keeping the Paris Agreement warming target of 1.5 degree Celsius alive.

But the new U.N. report does little to inspire hope that this goal remains in reach.

It found that greenhouse gas emissions must fall by 42% by 2030 to hold warming at 1.5C.

But global emissions actually rose by more than 1% between 2021 and 2022, reaching a record 57.4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

(Antonio Guterres) "We must reverse course. And as we have seen in this report, the crucial aspect is the addiction to fossil fuels. So it's time to establish a clear phase down with a time limit linked to the 1.5 degrees and it's time to be determined in pursuing that phase down policy. And I hope governments will understand it, and I hope that there will be a clear signal from the COP that we must move in that direction."


Earth to warm up to 2.9C even with current climate pledges: UN

Kelly Macnamara and Julien Mivielle
Mon, November 20, 2023

2023 is expected to be the hottest year in human history 
(Spyros BAKALIS)

Countries' greenhouse gas-cutting pledges put Earth on track for warming far beyond key limits, potentially up to a catastrophic 2.9 degrees Celsius this century, the UN said Monday, warning "we are out of road".

The UN Environment Programme's annual Emissions Gap report is released just ahead of crucial COP28 climate talks in Dubai and will feed into the global response to a sobering official "stocktake" of the failure to curb warming so far.

With this year expected to be the hottest in human history, UNEP said "the world is witnessing a disturbing acceleration in the number, speed and scale of broken climate records".

Taking into account countries' carbon-cutting plans, UNEP warned that the planet is on a path for disastrous heating of between 2.5C and 2.9C by 2100. Based just on existing policies and emissions-cutting efforts, global warming would reach 3C.

But the world continues to pump record levels of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, with emissions up 1.2 percent from 2021 to 2022, UNEP said, adding that the increase was largely driven by the burning of fossil fuels and industrial processes.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for the COP28 talks, which begin on November 30, to outline "dramatic climate action".

"Leaders can't kick the can any further. We're out of road," he said, denouncing a "failure of leadership, a betrayal of the vulnerable, and a massive missed opportunity".

He said the world "must reverse course" and called for a clear signal at the COP28 meeting that the world was preparing for a decisive move away from polluting coal, oil and gas.

- 'Snooze mode' -

The 2015 Paris Agreement saw countries agree to cap global warming at "well below" 2C above preindustrial times -- with a safer limit of 1.5C if possible.

Nearly 1.2C of global heating so far has already unleashed an escalating barrage of deadly impacts across the planet.

UNEP said temperatures have gone above 1.5C for more than 80 days already this year, although the Paris warming thresholds will be measured as an average over several decades.

The Emissions Gap report looks at the difference between the planet-heating pollution that will still be released under countries' decarbonisation plans and what science says is needed to keep to the goals of the Paris Agreement.

By 2030, UNEP said, global emissions will have to be 28 percent lower than current policies would suggest in order to stay below 2C, and 42 percent lower for the more ambitious limit of 1.5C.

UNEP chief Inger Andersen said it was crucial that G20 nations -- the world's wealthiest economies responsible for around 80 percent of emissions -- "step up" and lead on reductions, but noted some were in "snooze mode".

- 'Climate won't wait' -

Under the Paris deal, countries are required to submit ever deeper emission cutting plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

UNEP found that fully implementing "unconditional" NDCs for 2030 -- which countries plan regardless of external support -- would give a 66 percent likelihood of Earth's average temperature rising by 2.9C by 2100.

Scientists warn that warming of these levels could render vast swathes of the planet essentially uninhabitable for humans and risk irreversible tipping points on land and in the oceans.

Conditional NDCs -- which rely on international funding to achieve -- would probably lower this to a still catastrophic 2.5C temperature rise this century, it said.

UNEP said that if all conditional NDCs and longer-term net zero pledges were met in their entirety it would be possible to limit temperature rise to 2C.

But it cautioned that currently these net zero pledges were not considered credible, with none of the G20 nations reducing emissions in line with their own targets.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, the chance of limiting temperature rise to 1.5C is just 14 percent, UNEP said.

Guterres called for "an explosion of ambition" regarding countries setting their NDCs -- which are due to be updated by 2025.

Andersen said she is optimistic that countries will be able to make progress at the November 30 to December 12 COP28, despite the fractures caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

"Countries and delegations understand that, irrespective of these deep divisions that do exist and that are undeniable, the environment doesn't wait and climate most certainly will not," she said.

"You can't press the pause button."

klm-jmi/acc


World on track for nearly 3C of warming under current climate plans, UN report warns

Rosie Frost
Mon, November 20, 2023 


A new report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), released over a week before climate summit COP28 begins in Dubai, says urgent action is needed to prevent this projection from becoming a reality.

Global greenhouse gasses must be cut by 28 per cent to keep within 2C and 42 per cent to keep the 1.5C limit alive. To do this, mitigation efforts must be significantly strengthened this decade.

“Today's Emissions Gap report shows that if nothing changes, in 2030 emissions will be 22 Gigatonnes higher than the 1.5 degree-limit will allow,” UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres said.

“That's roughly the total present annual emissions of the USA, China, and the EU combined.”

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2023 has been a record-breaking year

Global greenhouse gas emissions are reaching all time highs after a 1.2 per cent increase last year, according to the UNEP.

These record emissions are causing record temperatures.

Up until the start of October, average temperatures more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels were recorded on 86 days.

September was the hottest month on record with average global temperatures reaching 1.8C above pre-industrial levels.

And average global temperatures likely crossed over the critical threshold of 2C above pre-industrial levels last week, according to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

These average temperatures need to be sustained over a longer period of time in order to breach official limits such as those set in the Paris Agreement, however.

“This year we’ve seen a horrendous number of records and extremes in terms of heat, in terms of wildfires and in terms of setting new global temperature records,” Anne Olhoff, chief scientific editor of the report, tells Euronews Green.

“But all of what we are seeing now will be like a whisper when what we’ll see in the future will be a roar.”

Residents of a riverside community in Amazonas state carry food and containers of drinking water distributed due to drought and high temperatures. 
- AP Photo /Edmar Barros


Has the Paris Agreement made a difference to emissions?

There has been progress since the Paris Agreement in 2015. Under policies in place then, the UNEP predicted a 16 per cent increase in emissions by 2030. Now the projected increase is 3 per cent.

“I do think that we have seen progress, I'm not saying nothing has happened,” Olhoff says.

“But it's really now or never in terms of at least keeping the window for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees alive at all.”

Big opportunities to cut emissions have been lost in the last few years, she adds. While the war in Ukraine and the resulting energy crisis pushed some countries towards green solutions, others used it to open up new oil and gas exploration or extend the life of coal mines.

One of the biggest obstacles to closing the emissions gap, Olhoff says, is “a lack of global leadership”.

Lobbying undermines climate pledges of more than half the world's top companies, report reveals


COP28: Climate action ‘supernova’ needed to keep Paris Agreement on track, UN warns
A lack of global leadership

If mitigation efforts under current policies continue as they are today, global warming will only be limited to 3C above pre-industrial levels. Fully implementing efforts laid out in countries' climate plans or National Determined Contributions (NDCs) puts the world on track for 2.9C.

None of the 20 biggest economies in the world are cutting emissions at a rate consistent with their net-zero targets. Even under the most optimistic scenario, the UNEP says, the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5C is only 14 per cent.

The report shows the emissions gap is “more like an emissions canyon”, Guterres added.

“A canyon littered with broken promises, broken lives, and broken records.

“All of this is a failing of leadership, a betrayal of the vulnerable and a massive missed opportunity.”

Rather than focusing solely on stronger targets for 2035, Olhoff says more ambitious action to bring down emissions is needed before the end of the decade.

“First of all, if we don't do that, then we can wave goodbye to 1.5 degrees.”

We’re not yet seeing a peak in emissions and current climate policies show more like a plateau. But there are huge opportunities for most countries to significantly reduce emissions from and end subsidies for fossil fuels, for example.

Reaching peak emissions should be the “easy part of the curve”, Olhoff says, cutting the final 10, 20 or even 30 per cent is likely to be a lot harder.

Earth surpasses critical 2-degree warming threshold, European climate officials say

Hayley Smith
Mon, November 20, 2023 

Icebergs float near Kvitoya Island in the Arctic Ocean in July. A scientific expedition that month recorded the impacts of global warming on the glacier-covered island. 
(Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)

For the first time since record keeping began, Earth has surpassed a critical temperature threshold that scientists have long warned could unleash the worst effects of climate change.

On Friday, the planet soared 2.07 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, or the 1850 to 1900 average, according to Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Two degrees Celsius — or 3.6 degree Fahrenheit — is the internationally agreed upon upper limit of warming established by the 2015 Paris climate agreement. The agreement seeks to hold the increase in the global temperature to well below that limit, and preferably below 1.5 degrees Celsius, in recognition that "this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change."

Copernicus officials shared the finding Monday in a post on X. Deputy director Samantha Burgess said preliminary data also show that the global temperature on Saturday measured 2.06 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, indicating that there are "now two November 2023 days" where the temperature exceeded the benchmark.



Scientists have long warned that sustained warming of 1.5 degrees or more will lead to cascading risks for human and planetary systems, including negative impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, water supplies and food security. Warming land and ocean temperatures are already contributing to sea level rise, melting ice sheets and increased hazards such as heat waves, drought and extreme precipitation, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

While significant challenges are expected for many regions and systems at 1.5 degrees of warming, "risks would be larger at 2 degrees Celsius of warming and an even greater effort would be needed for adaptation to a temperature increase of that magnitude," the IPCC says.

However, caution is warranted when it comes to a single day's data, said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. He noted that the terms of the Paris climate agreement are more concerned with sustained, years-long warming at those temperatures.

Read more: With hot October temperatures, this is 'virtually certain' to be the warmest year on record

Surpassing 2 degrees once or twice does not indicate a point of no return, Schmidt said. But the record-setting weekend is noteworthy in the context of larger trends.

"Is the planet warming? Yes," Schmidt said. "Are we going to see days above 2 degrees before we get weeks above 2 degrees, before we get to months, before we get to years? Yes. And is the planet right now going through an exceptional warming spurt? The answer is yes, yes it is. 2023 is proving to be exceptional in both the impacts and in these metrics."

Indeed, Monday's announcement came only weeks after officials warned that 2023 is on track to become Earth's warmest year on record following a record-hot June, July, August, September and October. The latest milestone is noteworthy, but also a reminder that it's not too late to change course, said Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist with Berkeley Earth.

"It's a warning that we're starting to get uncomfortably close," Hausfather said. "Certainly the fact that we were seeing months on end of 1.5 degrees [warming] is a sign that that target is quickly slipping by the wayside, and if we keep being complacent for the next decade, we're going to be in the same place regarding 2 degrees."

The majority of the warming is attributed to greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, he and other experts say. But this year's strengthening El Niño is also playing a role, as the climate pattern is associated with warmer global temperatures.

Read more: 'Every bit matters': Six key takeaways from the latest U.S. climate report

Researchers have also posited that last year's eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano in the South Pacific may be contributing to extreme warming this year. The eruption shot record amounts of heat-trapping water vapor into the atmosphere.

Additionally, a study published this month by renowned climate scientist James Hansen said a recent change in aerosol shipping regulations could be a contributing factor. The regulations reduced the amount of sulfur allowed in fuels in an effort to improve air quality, but the change may have had an unintended planetary warming effect because the aerosols were reflecting sunlight away from Earth.

Hausfather said the volcano eruption and the change in shipping regulations appear to have played a small role in recent warming trends, but not enough to singularly explain how anomalously hot this year has been. That El Niño arrived so quickly after a rare three consecutive years of La Niña, its cooling counterpart, may have made some of its warming effects show up earlier and stronger than in previous years.

"Scientists don't have all the answers right now," he said. "Were going to be doing a lot of research in the next few years to dig into the exact drivers, but it certainly has been an exceptionally warm year so far — and it's going to be the warmest year on record by a fairly large margin."

Not all hope is lost, however. The Fifth National Climate Change Assessment, released last week by the White House, underscored that every fraction of a degree of warming added or averted will make a difference.

The report "clearly shows that per 10th of a degree of avoided warming, we save, we prevent risk, we prevent suffering," Katharine Hayhoe, one of its authors, told The Times.

The news also comes ahead of COP28, an international climate conference that will begin later this month in Dubai.

"We still have time," Hausfather said, "to avoid the future we got a sneak peek of this past weekend."

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

World Has 14% Chance of Keeping Warming Below 1.5C in Best Case

John Ainger
Mon, November 20, 2023



(Bloomberg) -- The world only has a tiny chance of keeping global warming below a key threshold that could cause several climate tipping points to be reached, drastically exacerbating the likelihood of extreme weather, according to a new report from the United Nations.

Countries have a 14% chance of keeping global warming below 1.5C even in the most optimistic scenario where all net-zero pledges are met, according to an analysis by the UN’s environment program. Current emissions-cutting plans put the world on course for up-to 2.9C of global warming and that’s assuming nations fulfill their unconditional commitments.

The findings come less than two weeks before the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, which has the key aim of laying out what countries need to do to meet the goals set by the Paris Agreement in 2015, chiefly keeping warming below 2C, and ideally 1.5C. To do so, emissions need to fall by 28% to 42% by the end of the decade, compared with current policy scenarios, according to the UN’s report.

“There is no person or economy left on the planet untouched by climate change,”said Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP. “So we need to stop setting unwanted records on greenhouse gas emissions, global temperature highs and extreme weather.”

Read More: What Is COP28 and Why Is It Important?

There are fears that the battle to “keep 1.5 alive” may have already been lost and that the most realistic scenario now is that warming will have to rise above the critical threshold before coming back down. The report highlighted that, during the first nine months of the year, 86 days were recorded with temperatures over 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. September was the hottest recorded month ever, with global average temperatures 1.8C above pre-industrial levels, the report said.

While El Niño has played some role, the number of extra-hot days this year is overwhelmingly due to human-made emissions, according to Niklas Höhne, founder of the NewClimate Institute and one of the authors of the report.

“The report shows once again a huge discrepancy between where we want to be and where we are,” he said. “Current temperature increase is 1.2C and we already saw significant damage. If we go to double that, you can imagine that this will be an existential threat.”

“Even a 1.5C world is not safe for a large part of the population,” he added.

A similar report last week estimated that carbon emissions released into the atmosphere will increase by about 9% in 2030, compared with 2010 levels, based on current national pledges submitted ahead of the upcoming COP28 climate summit. It’s a marginal improvement from last year, but still means that by 2030, the world may only have two years left of its carbon budget to keep alive a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C.

“The stark reality is that the projected emissions from coal, oil and gas extraction are on track to exceed the carbon budget needed to limit warming to 1.5C by over 3.5 times,” said Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network.

Read more: World May Warm 2.8C With Current Climate Policies, UN Says

Greenhouse gas emissions are still rising. UNEP’s report showed that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere increased by 1.2% in 2022 to reach a new record of 57.4 gigatons. Delaying emissions cuts now raises the need to rely on removal technology in the future, something that has yet to be proven at scale.

Höhne said COP28 must move into “emergency mode” and urged countries to pledge a tripling of renewable capacity, a doubling of energy efficiency and a phase-out of fossil fuels to get back in line with a 1.5-degree goal.

“If we are serious about climate, we need to end the use of fossil fuels,” he said. “That should be crystal clear in a decision at COP28.”

--With assistance from Jennifer A. Dlouhy.