A better way to reduce child maltreatment

Program results in 17% reduction in foster care use, study finds

Peer-Reviewed Publication

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY

COLUMBUS, Ohio – A first-of-its-kind national study has found that a special program adopted in many states to help some families at risk of child maltreatment has been surprisingly successful.

The study found that states with what is called “differential response” (DR) programs had about 19% fewer substantiated reports of child maltreatment, 25% fewer substantiated reports of neglect and a 17% reduction in using foster care services when compared to states without DR programs.

The success of DR in reducing the number of children sent to foster care is especially important, said Michelle Johnson-Motoyama, lead author of the study and associate professor of social work at The Ohio State University.

“In certain situations, foster care is necessary to protect children from harm. However, it is also costly from human and societal perspectives and some states have been creative in finding ways to keep families together,” Johnson-Motoyama said.

“We found differential response programs may be getting families the resources they need to prevent foster care entry.”

The study was published recently in the journal Child Maltreatment.

Normally, when a state’s Child Protective Services (CPS) agency learns about children who may be in danger, it triggers investigations that can lead to court orders and a more legalistic path, Johnson-Motoyama said.

Differential response was developed as an alternative pathway for CPS workers to help families who came to their attention but were at lower risk of child maltreatment.

“These families have an opportunity to receive voluntary services and to receive referrals to community agencies that may be able to provide assistance,” she said.

The assistance could be in the form of links to organizations that help with housing, food, teaching parenting skills and other resources.

When the researchers started this work, they weren’t planning to focus on differential response programs.  They originally were analyzing the effect of social safety net policies in the United States and their impact on preventing child maltreatment.

But when they took differential response programs into account as they analyzed their data, the impact of the programs stood out, Johnson-Motoyama said.

“What was surprising to us was that these programs emerged as really important protective factors for children in all our analyses.  We decided we had to take a closer look,” she said.

The researchers analyzed data from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System from 2004 to 2017. They harnessed variations in when states implemented differential response programs to compare substantiated reports of maltreatment and neglect and foster care placements in states with and without DR programs.

Over the study period, 24 states and the District of Columbia used DR at some point in time.

The positive findings regarding the success of differential response programs stood out even after the researchers took into account a wide variety of other factors that could have been related, including whether states that had DR programs also had more generous social safety net programs.

Johnson-Motoyama said the data didn’t allow the researchers to determine exactly why differential response programs were so successful.  But they do have some ideas about what might be happening.

She noted that most of the families who encounter Child Protective Services are poor and may face problems with housing, food, child care and mental health, among other issues.

In the traditional pathway, families may face court orders to participate in various services if they want to keep their children out of foster care.

“Sometimes these court-ordered services can set families up to fail.  They mean well, but they may not be feasible to complete on the timelines of the child welfare system given a family’s limited resources,” she said.

“Some parents can end up losing their child, simply because they couldn’t fulfill the court-ordered plan.”

In contrast, under differential response programs, CPS employees work with families to develop voluntary plans that help them meet their needs and keep their children.

“Typically, these services are tailored to fit the family’s needs. This contrasts with court-ordered services, which may be one size fits all depending on the jurisdiction,” Johnson-Motoyama said.

The results show, she said, that differential response is worth investigating further as states consider ways of reducing foster care entry.

The study was supported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Other authors were Rebecca Phillips and Oliver Beer of Ohio State, Donna Ginther of the University of Kansas and Lisa Merkel-Holguin and John Fluke of the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus.

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JOURNAL

Child Maltreatment

DOI

10.1177/10775595211065761 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Differential Response and the Reduction of Child Maltreatment and Foster Care Services Utilization in the U.S. From 2004 to 2017

Cross-racial study of 1.87m vets shows wide disparities in dementia

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - SAN FRANCISCO

In what is believed to be the largest study to date on race and dementia, researchers from UCSF and the San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System tracked health and demographic data from close to two million veterans. It compared rates of dementia across five racial groups and showed significant race-based variations in the incidence of the condition.

This study is also believed to be the first to report the rate of dementia in Native Americans using a nationwide sample, the researchers stated in their paper, publishing in JAMA on April 19, 2022.

Of the 1.87 million veterans, whose average age was 69, 88.6% were white, 9.5% were Black, 1% Hispanic, 0.5% Asian and 0.4% Native American. Just 2.3% were female, consistent with the gender distribution of the older veteran population. All received their health care at medical centers of the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) located throughout the continental United States. 

Among the 13% of participants who were diagnosed with dementia over the course of the 10-year study, the researchers found that rates were markedly higher for Hispanic and Black veterans than they were for whites: 99% and 55% respectively. These results reinforce previous research that showed elevated rates for both groups.

Rates for Asian veterans have not been as widely documented and in this study were 24% higher than for whites. Among Native Americans, the rate was 8% higher than for whites, a finding that enhances prior research that has focused on smaller, geographically limited populations and has shown conflicting results, according to the researchers. 

When adjusting for sex, education, and underlying medical and psychiatric conditions, differences in dementia rates for all four groups were narrowed slightly in relation to whites: 92% higher for Hispanics, 54% for Blacks, 20% for Asians and 5% for Native Americans. This finding  for Native Americans shows no significant difference with whites, the researchers noted. 

Senior author Kristine Yaffe, MD, of the UCSF Departments of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Neurology, Epidemiology and the San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System, said she had been surprised by the relatively low risk for Native Americans. “There may be genetic or resilience factors that we just don’t know about yet,” she said, “or maybe even a survival bias. Those who are old enough to get dementia may have a survival advantage.”

Vets at Higher Risk for Dementia, Due to TBI, PTSD, Poor Cardiovascular Health

Yaffe said the study was unique in that it evaluated racial differences among five groups, versus two or three in previous studies, and that the cohort received their health care at the VHA, the largest integrated care system in the United States.

“U.S. veterans are at high risk of dementia because of exposure to military-related risk factors, like traumatic brain injury and post-traumatic stress disorder, and high prevalence of cardiovascular and other non-military risk factors,” she said. 

As expected, health and education disparities associated with dementia were more apparent in some groups. Native Americans were least likely to live in zip codes where more than 25% of residents were college-educated (26.9%), and had the highest rate of obesity (16.4%), post-traumatic stress disorder (11.2%) and alcohol use disorder (9.1%). Hispanics had the highest rate of diabetes (36.1%) and stroke (8.2%), and Blacks had the highest rate of hypertension (73.7%).

The researchers found regional variations in dementia incidence, but Black and Hispanic veterans were consistently identified as having higher risk than the other groups. 

These racial and ethnic differences are concerning, said first author Erica Kornblith, PhD, of the UCSF Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, and the San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System, “but they underscore the need to explore the cause of these differences with the ultimate goal of ameliorating them.” 

Differences in Dementia Diagnosis May Reflect Biases of Doctors 

Differences in dementia diagnosis may also reflect “the biases of doctors who make the diagnosis or biases in our cognitive tests, as well as the impact of education, and medical and psychiatric variables,” Kornblith said. 

Since most veterans serve as young adults and remain eligible for health care for the rest of their lives, it is likely that the participants had more equitable access than that of the general population, the researchers noted.

“This implies other mechanisms may be at play, such as early life circumstances, or that there were differences in quality of health care, despite better access,” said Yaffe, who is also affiliated with the UCSF Weill Institute for Neurosciences and the Northern California Institute for Research and Education. “In future studies, we hope to have a better understanding of the mechanisms that are driving the differences in dementia incidence across these five groups,” she said.

Co-Authors: Amber Bahorik, PhD, of UCSF and Northern California Institute for Research and Education; Feng Xia, MPH, of San Francisco VA Health Care System and Northern California Institute for Research and Education; Deborah E. Barnes, PhD, MPH, and W. John Boscardin, PhD, of San Francisco VA Health Care System and UCSF. 

Funding: This study was supported by Department of Veterans Affairs Rehabilitation Research and Development Career Development Award (CDA-2) 1 IK2 RX003073-01A2 (Kornblith) and NIA grant K24 AG031155, R35 AG071916 (Yaffe).

About UCSF: The University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) is exclusively focused on the health sciences and is dedicated to promoting health worldwide through advanced biomedical research, graduate-level education in the life sciences and health professions, and excellence in patient care. UCSF Health, which serves as UCSF's primary academic medical center, includes top-ranked specialty hospitals and other clinical programs, and has affiliations throughout the Bay Area. Learn more at https://www.ucsf.edu, or see our Fact Sheet.

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Follow UCSF
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JOURNAL

JAMA

Sending out bacteria-carrying mosquitos to protect people from dengue

Identifying vulnerable geographic areas so Wolbachia-carrying mosquitos can protect as many people as possible

Peer-Reviewed Publication

AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS

 

IMAGE: THE MAP REPRESENTS THE CITY OF SANTIAGO DE CALI AS A NETWORK IN WHICH NODES REPRESENT ITS DISTRICTS. THE SIZES OF THE NODES ARE PROPORTIONAL TO THE HUMAN POPULATION IN EACH DISTRICT, WHILE THE NODES ARE COLORED ACCORDING TO THEIR IMPORTANCE FOR THE RELEASE OF WOLBACHIA-CARRYING MOSQUITOES. THE LINKS IN THE NETWORK REPRESENT MOBILITY FLOWS BETWEEN CALI'S DISTRICTS. view more 

CREDIT: ADRIANA REYNA-LARA

WASHINGTON, April 19, 2022 – Dengue is the most widespread mosquito-borne disease in the world, and to date, there are no medical treatments for people suffering from this disease. The virus causes symptoms ranging from high fevers to severe bleeding and shock, can be life-threatening, and presents an enormous burden on health systems.

In Chaos, by AIP Publishing, researchers from Spain, Portugal, and Colombia developed a model the virus. In 2009, researchers discovered mosquitoes carrying Wolbachia bacteria lessen the chances for the dengue virus to impact humans.

Mosquitoes do not acquire Wolbachia bacteria in their natural environment, however. This bacterium must be introduced in vitro in mosquitoes' eggs, which are later released in areas affected by dengue transmission. Mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia naturally take over the local mosquito population.

The researchers use real data on human and vector activity in a framework that can be analyzed from a mathematical point of view, allowing them to re-create and understand the epidemiological situation. In this way, they can identify those geographical areas with the greatest vulnerability, creating a ranking of areas that prioritizes those where Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes can have the strongest and most beneficial impact on the spread of the dengue virus.

"One might think that the most populated areas are those in which Wolbachia release would be most beneficial. However, this is not always true," said co-author Jesus Gomez-Gardenes, from Universidad del Valle in Colombia.

The authors found once they immunize the most vulnerable geographical area, the ranking of the remaining areas is affected, giving rise to a new scenario that tells them where they should concentrate resources in the second instance and beyond.

The findings from this research will be beneficial to many groups, such as the World Mosquito Program, which is currently releasing Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes to protect the global community from diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika.

In these kinds of initiatives, the information about the most vulnerable areas within cities or regions proved the researchers' model could complement field studies to find targets that maximize the benefit for the whole community.

"Data-driven models have also proven useful to tackle the evolution and mitigation of other diseases such as COVID-19," said Gomez-Gardenes. "Hopefully, the framework developed for dengue can be further generalized for tackling the control of other vector-borne diseases."

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The article "A metapopulation approach to identify targets for Wolbachia-based dengue control" is authored by Adriana Reyna-Lara, David Soriano Panos, Juddy Heliana Arias-Castro, Hector J. Martínez, and Jesus Gomez-Gardenes. The article will appear in Chaos on April 19, 2022 (DOI: 10.1063/5.0087435). After that date, it can be accessed at https://aip.scitation.org/doi/full/10.1063/5.0087435.

ABOUT THE JOURNAL

Chaos is devoted to increasing the understanding of nonlinear phenomena in all areas of science and engineering and describing their manifestations in a manner comprehensible to researchers from a broad spectrum of disciplines. See https://aip.scitation.org/journal/cha.

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JOURNAL

Chaos An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science

DOI

10.1063/5.0087435 

ARTICLE TITLE

A metapopulation approach to identify targets for Wolbachia-based dengue control

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

19-Apr-2022

A new understanding of how the immune system deals with malaria

Peer-Reviewed Publication

KAROLINSKA INSTITUTET

By analysing samples from patients who have been treated for malaria in Sweden, researchers at Karolinska Institutet can now describe how the immune system acts to protect the body after a malaria infection. The results, published in the journal Cell Reports, provide knowledge that can aid in the development of more effective vaccines against the disease. 

“Our results contribute to a better understanding of how humans fight this serious disease and may help in the development of better vaccines," says Christopher Sundling, principal researcher at the Department of Medicine, Solna, at Karolinska Institutet, and last author of the study. “This sheds new light on the question of how the body's immunse system deals with malaria." 

Malaria is caused by parasites that are spread to humans by mosquitoes. The disease caused more than 600,000 deaths in 2020, mainly among young children in sub-Saharan Africa.  

People who contract malaria repeatedly may gradually become immune to the disease. But even before that, the body can build up a so-called tolerance, which provides protection against severe disease. 

To find out more about how disease tolerance develops, KI researchers have investigated immune cells and proteins in blood samples from patients who have been treated for acute malaria infection at Karolinska University Hospital in Solna, Sweden and have recovered.  

This patient group was monitored by being tested on six occasions during one year following the onset of the disease. A total of 53 patients were included, 17 of whom had contracted malaria for the first time, while 36 had grown up in malaria endemic areas, had had malaria many times before and now contracted the disease again after travel. 

“Since we have followed the patients here in Sweden, we can study the natural course of the immune response after a malaria infection, without the risk of a new infection interfering with the results. This cohort has proved to be very valuable for studying the immunology of malaria," says Anna Färnert, Professor of Infectious Diseases at the Department of Medicine, Solna, Karolinska Institutet and Senior infectious diseases physician at Karolinska University Hospital, Sweden in whose research group the study was conducted.  

Within this cohort, the researchers recently described the kinetics of antibody responses after infection. 

In the case of malaria, the disease itself is partly a result of the inflammation created in the body by the immune system's reaction to the infection. In their comparisons, the researchers noted a strong inflammatory response from the so-called innate immune system in people who were infected for the first time. In contrast, the people who were re-infected had an ability to suppress the inflammation, Christopher Sundling explains. 

“In those who have had malaria before, we saw that the early presence of parasite-specific antibodies interrupt the first stages of the inflammation and prevent a certain type of inflammatory T-cell from expanding," Sundling continues. 

In October 2021, the World Health Organization recommended the use of the world's first, and so far, only vaccine against malaria, Mosquirix. However, Mosquirix targets only one form of the malaria parasite – the form the parasite has when it first moves from the mosquito into the liver. Once it enters the bloodstream and gives symptoms, the pathogen is at a different stage against which the vaccine does not work. 

“This is a weakness of the current vaccine. Understanding how tolerance develops and what happens in the blood stage can help us develop other types of vaccines, which may not fully protect against infection but will lessen the chances of becoming seriously ill. If such a vaccine can enable people to survive the first infections that kill so many, we could save many lives," says Sundling. 

Over the last decades, the incidence of malaria decreased globally. Efforts to distribute mosquito nets, spray insecticides indoors, as well as diagnostics and new treatments are believed to have contributed to the positive trend, Anna Färnert notes. But in recent years, the rate of decline has levelled off and in 2020 the covid pandemic contributed to increased mortality. 

“We now need to continue to ensure that people are protected from being bitten by infected mosquitoes and have access to rapid and effective treatment. But to further reduce the burden of disease and eventually eradicate malaria, new tools are required. An effective vaccine is really needed; that is how we have been able to manage other infections, also in poor countries," says Anna Färnert. 

The research has been funded by the Swedish Research Council, Magnus Bergvall Foundation, the Åke Wiberg Foundation, Region Stockholm, and the Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation, as well as doctoral grants from Karolinska Institutet. The researchers declare that there are no conflicts of interest. 

Publication: ”Systems analysis shows a role of cytophilic antibodies in shaping innate tolerance to malaria.” Maximilian Julius Lautenbach, Victor Yman, Carolina Sousa Silva, Nadir Kadri, Ioanna Broumou, Sherwin Chan, Sina Angenendt, Klara Sondén, David Fernando Plaza, Anna Färnert, Christopher Sundling. Cell Reports, online 19 April 2022, doi: 10.1016/j.celrep.2022.110709. 

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JOURNAL

Cell Reports

DOI

10.1016/j.celrep.2022.110709 

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

”Systems analysis shows a role of cytophilic antibodies in shaping innate tolerance to malaria”

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

19-Apr-2022

Health risk factors, outcomes among transgender, gender-questioning high school students

JAMA

Peer-Reviewed Publication

JAMA NETWORK

What The Study Did: This survey study found that transgender and gender-questioning high school students reported increased risk factors and worse outcomes, compared with cisgender youths, in bullying, sexual and dating violence, mental health and suicidality, and sexual risk behaviors and substance use.

Authors: Gilbert Gonzales, Ph.D., M.H.A., of Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee, is the corresponding author.

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/

(doi:10.1001/jama.2022.3087)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

#  #  #

Embed this link to provide your readers free access to the full-text article This link will be live at the embargo time https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/10.1001/jama.2022.3087?guestAccessKey=5c3c2798-6164-4aaf-a4c6-35afbc191546&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=041922

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JOURNAL

JAMA

A ‘greener’ alternative for red-colored smoke

Peer-Reviewed Publication

AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIET

 

IMAGE: DYES CURRENTLY USED FOR RED SMOKE (LEFT), SUCH AS THAT FOUND IN FLARES, COULD BE TOXIC, SO RESEARCHERS IDENTIFIED A SAFER ALTERNATIVE (RIGHT). view more 

CREDIT: ADAPTED FROM ACS SUSTAINABLE CHEMISTRY & ENGINEERING 2022, DOI: 10.1021/ACSSUSCHEMENG.2C01000

The red smoke of a flare on a roadway warns motorists to be cautious, but the anthraquinone dyes currently used to produce this smoke are thought to be harmful to human health. Now, researchers reporting in ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering have identified a less toxic, “greener” alternative — an organic dye called pigment red 254 (PR254). It also forms a red-colored smoke cloud more effectively than current dyes, the researchers say.

Commercialized in 1986, diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP) dyes are used as colorants in car paints (such as the famous “Ferrari red”), optics technologies and other applications. For the purpose of signal smokes, Vojtech Pelikan and colleagues chose the DPP dye PR254, which has a brilliant red color and is less toxic than anthraquinone dyes. In experiments, the researchers showed that a PR254-containing pyrotechnic composition reached a yield of red-colored smoke of 51%, compared with only 48% for the usual anthraquinone dye. PR254 was also more thermally stable than the reference dye, which might allow it to be used in a less toxic heat-generating system, according to the researchers.

The authors acknowledge funding from the University of Pardubice.

The American Chemical Society (ACS) is a nonprofit organization chartered by the U.S. Congress. ACS’ mission is to advance the broader chemistry enterprise and its practitioners for the benefit of Earth and all its people. The Society is a global leader in promoting excellence in science education and providing access to chemistry-related information and research through its multiple research solutions, peer-reviewed journals, scientific conferences, eBooks and weekly news periodical Chemical & Engineering News. ACS journals are among the most cited, most trusted and most read within the scientific literature; however, ACS itself does not conduct chemical research. As a leader in scientific information solutions, its CAS division partners with global innovators to accelerate breakthroughs by curating, connecting and analyzing the world’s scientific knowledge. ACS’ main offices are in Washington, D.C., and Columbus, Ohio.

To automatically receive news releases from the American Chemical Society, contact newsroom@acs.org.

Follow us: Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Instagram

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JOURNAL

ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering

DOI

10.1021/acssuschemeng.2c01000 

ARTICLE TITLE

Diketopyrrolopyrrole — A Greener Alternative for Pyrotechnic Smoke Compositions”

Study predicts thawing of gas-saturated permafrost around oil and gas wells of Russian Arctic

Peer-Reviewed Publication

SKOLKOVO INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (SKOLTECH)

Skoltech scientists and their partners from Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience of RAS, with support from the R&D unit of TotalEnergies, have predicted how oil and gas wells heat up the permafrost around them. Presented in Geosciences, the new model encompasses 30 years of well operation and accounts for not just the melting of ice in frozen soil but also the gradual release of methane locked up in it. Understanding these processes is becoming increasingly relevant for accident-proof extraction and greenhouse gas emission monitoring as oil companies shift their attention to deposits in the Arctic region.

Oil and gas deposits in the Arctic region lie beneath a 100-to-500-meter layer of permafrost. As comparatively hot hydrocarbons rise up along the well shaft drilled in the frozen soil, it heats up. This causes the surrounding permafrost to thaw, compromising its ability to support structures, including the well itself. Moreover, if the frozen soil is saturated with methane, which is typical for the northern part of Western Siberia and the Yamal Peninsula in particular (Russia’s major oil and gas companies such as Gazprom and Novatek are active there), the thawing permafrost releases methane — a potent greenhouse gas and a fire hazard.

The first author of the study, Skoltech Leading Research Scientist Evgeny Chuvilin commented on the findings: “We modeled thawing around a production well that operates on the Yamal Peninsula, but similar processes can occur elsewhere and on other types of oil and gas wells, because by definition, hydrocarbons rising up from the depths carry heat: Every time you go 100 meters deeper, things heat up by about 3 degrees Celsius. With extremely deep drilling, oil can get as hot as 100 C or more.”

The model proposed by the team shows how the permafrost surrounding an active well gradually heats up and thaws, but there’s more to it. Chuvilin added: “We looked at the case with permafrost that is more complexly structured: At the depth of between 60 and 120 meters, it contains gas hydrate inclusions — icelike solids made up of frozen water and natural gas locked up in it. They are stable within a certain range of temperatures and pressures, but when these conditions are disrupted, they decompose, releasing about 170 liters of free gas per liter of solid gas hydrate. We have shown that operating one gas well for 30 years may melt the surrounding permafrost in a 10-meter radius, releasing up to 500,000 cubic meters of methane into the atmosphere.”

The team stresses that correct predictions of the well-permafrost thermal interactions are necessary for preventing critical ground depressions and cave-ins, which in turn may result in flooding and disrupt well shaft stability, potentially resulting in major repair costs. As for the emission of methane, that aspect is important for two reasons. First, that combustible gas may create the risk of fires or explosions, which might ruin the well and lead to substantial economic loss. Second, methane is a potent greenhouse gas whose release into the atmosphere needs to be monitored so that researchers could understand global and regional climate change better.
 

*****

Skoltech is a private international university located in Russia. Established in 2011 in collaboration with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Skoltech is cultivating a new generation of leaders in the fields of science, technology, and business, conducting research in breakthrough fields, and promoting technological innovation with the goal of solving critical problems that face Russia and the world. Skoltech is focusing on six priority areas: artificial intelligence and communications, life sciences and health, cutting-edge engineering and advanced materials, energy efficiency and ESG, photonics, advanced studies. Website: https://www.skoltech.ru/.

 

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JOURNAL

Geosciences

DOI

10.3390/geosciences12030115 

ARTICLE TITLE

Simulating Thermal Interaction of Gas Production Wells with Relict Gas Hydrate-Bearing Permafrost

Perception matters: How fear about crime impacts presidential approval

Whites, Blacks hold different parties accountable for crime, research shows

Peer-Reviewed Publication

WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY IN ST. LOUIS

Only one in three Americans, or 36%, approve of President Joe Biden’s handling of crime, according to a December 2021 poll by ABC News and Ipsos. An ABC News story tied the low approval to “historic jumps” in the nation’s murder rates. However, new research from Washington University in St. Louis suggests that other less objective factors may be contributing to Biden’s low approval rating.

The research, published in Public Opinion Quarterly, offers a more nuanced understanding of how anxiety about crime, race and the president’s political party influence whether Americans hold presidents accountable for crime.

Using Gallup survey data from 2000-2019 spanning across four presidential administrations — Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump — Washington University researchers found that objective measures of state and local crime did not influence presidential approval, which is consistent with previous work in other disciplines.

However, they did find evidence that anxiety about crime — or one’s belief that crime has gotten worse in the U.S. — is a significant predictor of presidential approval. Individuals who were worried about crime in their communities were more likely to punish presidents for it. The data also showed that crime anxiety is associated with socioeconomic and demographic characteristics as well as past victimization. White people, those with higher levels of education and individuals with higher incomes were less likely to be worried about crime.

This penalty is not applied evenly, though. The data showed that white and Black respondents hold different parties accountable for crime, which researchers labeled “racially conditioned issue ownership.” In particular:

• Black respondents who are anxious about crime punish Republican presidents (Bush, Trump) more harshly than Democratic presidents (Clinton, Obama). Specifically, Black respondents who are anxious about crime are 19% less likely to approve of Republican presidents. Black respondents reported no significant difference in approval for Democratic presidents, though.
• White respondents who are anxious about crime do the opposite — punishing Democratic presidents more than Republican presidents. White respondents were 14% less likely to approve of Democratic presidents if they were anxious about crime. But they did not translate that anxiety into disapproval of Republican presidents.

“While whites may view Republican promises of ‘law and order’ and ‘tough-on crime’ policies as reassuring, Black Americans take a different view,” said Andrew Reeves, professor of political science in Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis and incoming director of the Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy.  

Reeves

“For Black Americans, this policy approach may evoke feelings of persecution, threats to civil rights and biased treatment by the criminal justice system. Blacks may be more likely to link concern over crime to failed or misguided policies by Republican presidents.”

Benjamin Noble, a political science PhD student at Washington University, and Steven Webster, assistant professor of political science at Indiana University, co-authored the research with Reeves.

Issue ownership, presidential approval

U.S. presidents are held accountable for a number of issues, including the economy, natural disasters, war and crime. Ownership of an issue shields presidents from punishment, said Reeves, whose research focuses on political accountability and public policy in the United States.

When presidents demonstrate their ownership of an issue — through rhetoric and/or policy decisions — they are less likely to be punished regardless of the outcome. The opposite is also true. When the incumbent’s party does not own an issue, such as crime, voters will punish the president for perceived failures in addressing the issue.

‘Like so much in American politics, race shapes perceptions of which party is superior at addressing crime.’

Benjamin Noble

Crime is a nonpartisan issue that the majority of Americans say is a “very big problem,” despite the fact that actual crime rates have halved over the last two decades, according to Noble.

Not surprisingly, U.S. presidents frequently talk about crime, take actions to address it and list crime efforts among their top accomplishments. Republicans — with their “tough on crime” policies — have long held an advantage on this issue. The data shows the story is not so simple, though.

“Like so much in American politics, race shapes perceptions of which party is superior at addressing crime,” Noble said.

“Democratic solutions that are labeled ‘soft’ by white Americans may be seen as attempts to reform a system that has disproportionately affected communities of color by Blacks.”

New way of thinking about presidential accountability

To ensure the findings were the result of true racial differences in how anxiety translates into presidential approval, the researchers reanalyzed the models to include variables that capture individuals’ policy preferences about how crime should be handled, such as community investment or by increasing funding for the police and prisons. They also measured attitudes on gun laws and the death penalty. Even with these additional measures, their theory held. The data confirmed that this effect was not simply the result of partisan or racial differences in crime-related issue opinions.

Noble hopes that these findings lead other researchers to consider how issue ownership may vary by racial or other identity-based subgroups on other issues.

“Think historically racialized issues like ballot access or drug policy or gender-based issues like family leave or child care,” he said.

“As the two parties continue to polarize across various identity-based cleavages, and immigration, race and crime become increasingly salient in American politics, we believe the importance of work along these lines will only increase.”  

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JOURNAL

Public Opinion Quarterly

DOI

10.1093/poq/nfab074 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Crime and presidential accountability: A case of racially conditioned issue ownership

Temple research team uncovers changes in the people and places impacted by interpersonal firearm violence following COVID-19 containment measures in Philadelphia

The city experienced a rise in the percentage of mass shootings and in the proportion of women and children who were shot.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

TEMPLE UNIVERSITY HEALTH SYSTEM

(Philadelphia, PA) – Previous work by researchers at the Lewis Katz School of Medicine at Temple University into the recent surge in firearm violence across Philadelphia during the COVID-19 pandemic found that it was strongly associated with the enactment of containment measures.

Now, new research published in the journal Preventive Medicine builds on those findings by examining the people and places impacted by interpersonal firearm violence during the COVID-19 pandemic in Philadelphia.

Utilizing the Philadelphia Police Department’s registry of shooting victims from January 1, 2015, through March 31, 2021, the research team looked at the time, date, and block-level location of incidents, as well as demographic and mortality information about victims. They also examined mass shootings, which are incidents in which four or more people are shot within one hour within 100 meters (about one city block).

Following the implementation of COVID-19 containment measures in Philadelphia on March 16, 2020 (the date of non-essential business closures):

• The number of people shot per quarter nearly doubled from 331 pre-containment to 541 post-containment.
• The proportion of women shot increased by 39%, from 8.2% to 11.4% of all shootings.
• The proportion of children shot increased by 17%, from 7.8% to 9.0% of all shootings.
• Among children, there was a 13% increase in shootings from noon-11:59 p.m.
• Compared to other groups, Black women were 11% more likely and Black children were 8% more likely to be shot following COVID containment.
• Mass shootings increased by 53% from 3.6% of all shootings prior to containment measures to 5.5% of all shootings after containment measures were implemented.
• The increase in mass shootings did not fully explain the observed changes in the people impacted by firearm violence.
• Shootings were less likely to be fatal, with 17.3% of shootings resulting in death post-containment compared to a shooting fatality rate of 20.2% pre-containment.
• There were increased rates of shootings in parts of Northeast, Eastern and Southwest Philadelphia and an increase in mass shootings in the Northeast.

“Our research reveals a shift in the epidemiology and an increasing severity of interpersonal firearm violence in Philadelphia after measures were put in place to contain the spread of COVID-19,” said Jessica H. Beard, MD, MPH, FACS, Assistant Professor of Surgery and Director of Trauma Research at the Katz School of Medicine and the study’s corresponding author. “Absent robust social and economic support, the containment policies likely worsened structural inequalities that already existed. Only by examining the root causes of interpersonal firearm violence and gaining a better understanding of these changes that have occurred, can we address the epidemic of gun violence in the city. From a public health perspective, solutions could include investment in public education and employment, as well as increasing access to social services and support, such as medical assistance.”

Other researchers involved in the study include Iman N. Afif (co-first author), Zoe Maher, Elizabeth D. Dauer, Thomas A. Santora, Jeffrey H. Anderson, Abhijit Pathak, Lars Ola Sjoholm and Amy J. Goldberg in the Division of Trauma and Surgical Critical Care at the Katz School of Medicine; Ariana N. Gobaud (co-first author) in the Department of Epidemiology at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health; Christopher N. Morrison in the Department of Epidemiology at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health and the Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine in the School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine at Monash University in Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Sara F. Jacoby in the Department of Family and Community Health at the University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing; and Elinore J. Kaufman in the Division of Traumatology, Surgical Critical Care and Emergency Surgery at the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine.

About the Lewis Katz School of Medicine
Founded in 1901, the Lewis Katz School of Medicine at Temple University attracts students and faculty committed to advancing individual and population health through culturally competent patient care, research, education, and service. The School confers the MD degree; MS and PhD degrees in Biomedical Science; the MA in Urban Bioethics; the MS in Physician Assistant studies; a certificate in Narrative Medicine; a non-degree post-baccalaureate program; several dual degree programs with other Temple University schools; continuing medical education programs; and in partnership with Temple University Hospital, 40 residency and fellowship programs for physicians. The School also manages a robust portfolio of publicly and privately funded transdisciplinary studies aimed at advancing the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of disease -- with specialized research centers focused on heart disease, cancer, substance use disorder, metabolic disease, and other regional and national health priorities. To learn more about the Lewis Katz School of Medicine, please visit: medicine.temple.edu.

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JOURNAL

Preventive Medicine

DOI

10.1016/j.ypmed.2022.107020 

ARTICLE TITLE

The changing epidemiology of interpersonal firearm violence during the COVID-19 pandemic in Philadelphia, P