David Rosenberg: Food and energy shock this severe has only happened four times before — three led to recession

© Provided by Financial Post Food and energy inflation has been surging.


By David Rosenberg and Brendan Livingstone

Food and energy inflation — notoriously volatile but representing key expenditures for households that can’t easily be reduced — has been surging. At more than 15 per cent year over year (a threshold first breached last October), we are seeing a degree of price gains that have only occurred four other times in the past (1973, 1979, 2005 and 2008).

Note that three of these instances took place during economic downturns, a warning to investors that the spike in prices that has already transpired raises the odds of a recession. The recent decline in equities, as well as the widening in high-yield spreads, provide further confirmation of this rising risk on the horizon.

Keep in mind that this is before the sanctions on Russia have exerted their impact on food and energy prices. Thus far during March, agriculture prices are up 15 per cent and energy prices are 10 per cent higher. This will further exacerbate food and energy costs for households, leading to less disposable income for discretionary purchases.

One can readily imagine how this will lead to an especially large pullback in demand for big-ticket durable goods, which were already poised to see a meaningful demand hit as purchases were pulled forward during the pandemic.

In light of our view that recession risks are rising, particularly given the moves in food and energy prices, we went back and looked at stock market performance in the year following a spike in food and energy CPI (above 15 per cent year over year).

Perhaps unsurprisingly — since three of four occurrences took place during recessions — the S&P 500 did quite poorly in the following year, with an average decline of 11.1 per cent. All 11 S&P 500 sectors declined, although there is a pretty meaningful dispersion in performance. Indeed, on one hand, energy (-1.3 per cent) held up quite well, suggesting this sector has served as a good spot for investors to hide out. Conversely, technology (-20 per cent) was the worst performer, which is to be expected given its long duration status (making it particularly vulnerable to spikes in inflation).

Beyond equities, corporate bonds did quite poorly during these periods when GDP growth slows and the economy enters recession. High-yield spreads widen out 223 basis points on average, and investment-grade spreads were 74 basis points wider. Historically, the 10-year Treasury yield also increased (by 65 basis points) as inflation expectations remain elevated.

However, as far as the current period is concerned, note that the 10-year T-note yield has already increased 55 basis points since last October, representing most of an “average” up move. In other words, the spike in inflation today appears largely priced into the Treasury curve.

But the one asset class that investors should really focus on is gold, which was up a whopping 48.9 per cent during the periods under review. And this was with a stronger U.S. dollar (+1.9 per cent) and Treasury yields moving higher — a positive sign that indicates fundamental support. By way of comparison, the broader commodity complex fell slightly (by 2.5 per cent on average) over the next year due to the demand destruction caused by higher food and energy costs.

The bottom line is that recession risks are rising, particularly as food and energy prices, which were already spiking, are poised to move higher due to the Russia-Ukraine war. In the past, similarly high run rates have resulted in a recessionary outcome in three out of four instances. Against this backdrop, stocks have performed poorly, although the dispersion between the top-performing sector (energy) and worst performer (technology) is quite wide, suggesting good opportunities for active managers to add alpha.

In the corporate bond market, spreads are wider, with a particularly large move in lower-rated credit. Treasury yields also tend to increase, but the move that has already transpired suggests most of the inflation spike is priced in. However, gold has been, by far, the most attractive investment in these periods, suggesting investors should make this a point of emphasis within their portfolio.

David Rosenberg is founder of independent research firm Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. Brendan Livingstone is a senior strategist there.

P3

NDP transport critic says feds’ move to privatize high-frequency rail corridor feels like ‘bait and switch’


The NDP and Unifor are concerned a passenger rail service connecting Toronto and Quebec City could become privatized following a federal announcement last week.

On March 9, federal Transport Minister Omar Alghabra revealed the government is seeking private proposals to solicit “advice and views from industry” for the Via Rail high-frequency Quebec City-Windsor corridor.

“This really feels like a bait and switch … that the government is intending to have the rail line operated by a private company,” the NDP’s transport critic Taylor Bachrach told Canada’s National Observer. “This is a huge project and a huge opportunity for Canada and we need to get it right.”

The government’s expression of interest says the private sector would help design, build and finance the high-frequency rail project “that they would ultimately operate and maintain” and collect revenues from.

While it is common for major infrastructure projects to involve the private sector in the construction and design phases, Bachrach said “the idea that a private corporation could also take over the operation of this line over the long term” is a surprise and is “not going to be in the best interest of Canadians.”

In a statement to Canada’s National Observer, Alghabra said: “This is not a privatization of Via Rail. This will grow and strengthen Via Rail. The project is going to be the largest in Canada’s history and we need to do it right. That is why we are inviting the private sector to step forward with their expertise to partner in delivering this transformational project.”

This is the “biggest investment in passenger rail in a generation” and will create better travel options to connect communities, combat climate change and create jobs and economic growth, his statement reads. Alghabra also noted the government will work with the private sector and Indigenous communities and businesses to address any impacts the project may have on Indigenous peoples.

The Quebec City-Windsor corridor accounted for more than 90 per cent of Via Rail’s ridership and 80 per cent of its revenues in 2019. If the corridor is privatized, “that’s going to be a huge blow to the viability of Via Rail,” said Bachrach.

“The Liberal government is fixated with bringing in private capital and turning over major public infrastructure projects to the private sector,” said Bachrach. The result, he says, is low-quality services and higher costs for Canadians, which is why he hopes no private partners will come forward or the government will scrap the idea altogether.

Ottawa’s light rail train (LRT) is one high-profile example of a public-private partnership resulting in a “dismal failure,” said Bachrach.

After a construction period complete with delays, sinkholes, lawsuits and increasing costs, the LRT opened more than a year late in September 2019 and has since been plagued with stoppages, derailments and safety concerns.

The City of Ottawa and the construction companies are currently suing each other.

NDP MP Niki Ashton recently tabled a private member’s bill that would provide an alternative to public-private partnerships.

Her bill proposes removing language in the Canada Infrastructure Bank’s mandate that allows it to seek out private investment and instead encourage the federal government to fund public projects that will help Canadians manage the climate crisis. This would help communities finance critical infrastructure needed to survive the climate crisis and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

“This is Canada's most densely populated corridor, so there's tremendous potential to use high-frequency rail to get people out of their cars and get them moving up and down that corridor in a low-carbon way,” said Bachrach. “This is a project that needs to be done well, and it needs to be done in the best interest of Canadians.”

Unifor is also calling on the federal government to reverse its decision on the rail project.

In a press release last week, Unifor said it plans to “aggressively fight back” against what it says is “the first of many steps to privatize Via Rail.”

“Privatization in transportation means higher costs, broken promises, worse service and route closures,” said Scott Doherty, Unifor's lead negotiator for rail, in the press release. “Public-private partnerships often lead to lower wages, job insecurity and health and safety risks for workers and “is bound to go off the rails.”

In response to Unifor’s concerns, Alghabra said in his statement that any arrangement with the private sector must respect collective agreements, work with Via Rail’s employees and unions and ensure existing employees benefit from job opportunities from the project.

“Via Rail is central to the success of this project, and will continue to play a critical role throughout its entirety, working collaboratively with a private partner,” Alghabra’s statement reads. “We will protect the public interest. We will protect public assets and we will protect and expand jobs and union membership.”

The Conservative Party’s shadow minister of transportation, Melissa Lantsman, did not respond to requests for comment by deadline.

Natasha Bulowski, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, Canada's National Observer

STATE CAPITALI$M IS STILL CAPITALI$M

Buttressing Greenland - a bailout in China's distressed property sector

By Engen Tham and Xie Yu 

© Reuters/TINGSHU WANG People walk past a building of Greenland Holdings Corp. Ltd. in Beijing

SHANGHAI/HONG KONG (Reuters) - Greenland Holdings Corp Ltd, a major Shanghai-based Chinese state-backed property developer responsible for marquee projects at home and abroad, was scrambling for funds late last year, people with direct knowledge of the matter said

.

© Reuters/TINGSHU WANG Sign of Greenland Holdings Corp. Ltd. is seen on its building in Beijing

In danger of defaulting on a $500 million offshore bond in December, it was rescued after Shanghai authorities told local state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to step in and buy new Greenland debt, sources told Reuters.

Greenland's financial straits and subsequent bailout, details of which are previously unreported, mark the first known example where Chinese SOEs have been directly ordered to participate in a property sector bond offering - highlighting more active and targeted action being taken by authorities as they seek to limit risks posed by the industry.

© Reuters/TINGSHU WANG People walk past a building of Greenland Holdings Corp. Ltd. in Beijing

Here is what happened.

Greenland, China's No. 7 property developer and highly leveraged, became swept up in a sector-wide debt crisis that roiled international markets last year amid fears that a large-scale developer collapse could derail the world's second-largest economy.

Like many of its peers, it was reeling from tighter caps on debt ratios introduced in January 2021 that resulted in a liquidity squeeze across the sector.

By October, some long-term lenders such as CITIC Bank were reducing their lending, two people with direct knowledge of Greenland's financial situation said, adding the state of affairs was not helped by downgrades to its debt ratings from credit rating agencies.

It had sought fresh financing from trust firms and leasing companies but a sharp rise in interest rates was proving to be a stumbling block, they said.

In the fourth quarter, Greenland embarked on more drastic steps - slashing real estate-related headcount by 30% and placing more strategic emphasis on infrastructure construction projects that accounted for half of its revenues, they added.

Even so, it did not have sufficient funds to cover the likely event that many holders of the $500 million puttable bond would seek to exercise their right to redeem it roughly a year early on Dec. 16, they said.

Sources for this article were not authorised to speak to media and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Greenland said in a statement to Reuters it has always repaid its domestic and overseas debts in full and kept financing costs low, adding that its liabilities reduction plan was progressing smoothly. CITIC Bank did not respond to requests for comment.

WHITE KNIGHTS

Concerned about Greenland's financial situation, Shanghai municipal authorities had sometime during the fourth quarter asked its lenders to be flexible with repayment extensions and to maintain rather than drop existing relationships, said one person with knowledge of the matter.

Then in early December, the Shanghai government's state asset administrator held a meeting with representatives of seven SOEs, ordering them to buy new dollar bonds issued by Greenland, according to four people briefed about the gathering.

Shanghai Municipal Investment Group, Bank of Shanghai, Shanghai Land (Group) Co and Lujiazui International Trust Co were among the SOEs, said two of the four sources.

On Dec. 14, Greenland announced it had raised $350 million in a dollar bond issue. Due August 2022 and carrying a 7.974% coupon, it was a rare developer bond deal at a time when concerns about the sector had dried up new note issuance. The only purchasers were the seven SOES, two sources said.

Three days later, Greenland said it had redeemed 85.9% of the $500 million bond after put options were exercised.

The Shanghai government's state asset administrator, the Shanghai municipal government and the four SOEs named above did not respond to requests for comment.

China's property sector crisis has posed a high-stakes quandary for President Xi Jinping, who is seeking to secure an unprecedented third term this year.

On one hand, the government wants to impose financial discipline on an industry known for unbridled borrowing and which by some metrics accounts for a quarter of China's economy. But it also can't afford to derail growth or fuel social unrest.

Bond defaults by China Evergrande Group, the world's most indebted developer with some $300 billion in liabilities, as well as by other developers, have seen authorities soften their initial stance that market forces would hold sway.

Rules relating to M&A and capital raising in the sector have been relaxed and developers have been given easier access to pre-sale funds held in escrow accounts. At last week's annual meeting of parliament, Premier Li Keqiang signalled more easing was in the works.

Local authorities have also encouraged SOEs to purchase developer assets, sources have previously said, although it is unclear if any SOEs have been ordered per se into an acquisition.

SHIMAO TOO

Shimao Group Holdings, a developer which has put all its property up for sale to repay debt, has also had a helping hand from Shanghai municipal authorities.

Twenty-seven of Shimao's creditors were asked to maintain lending positions and to not publicly undermine Shimao's creditworthiness, said a separate person who attended a creditor meeting. "Everyone was stony-faced, no one had any reaction," said the person.

Shimao did not respond to requests for comment.

Greenland, however, appears to have had more government intervention than most other developers. The sources who spoke with Reuters were not sure why but noted Greenland is state-backed and has high-profile projects.

It recently built Sydney's tallest residential tower and has billions of dollars worth of projects in London, New York, Los Angeles and Paris. At home, its projects include construction of the tallest building in northwest China and it is heavily involved in building subways, highways and bridges.

The use of government-backed credit support rather than the purchase of fire-sale assets is becoming the preferred policy option for reducing risk in the sector, one government policy advisor told Reuters.

There is also a growing consensus that when deciding which firms will gain government support, it will be size rather than whether a firm is government-backed or private that will be the key factor, the person said, adding the bottom line is to prevent a financial crisis.

Just how far the government will support Greenland remains to be seen. Its financial difficulties are not over. It has $190 billion in total liabilities, and according to Refinitiv data, outstanding bonds worth $7.1 billion, of which $3.7 billion is due to mature this year.

The order to SOEs to support Greenland only pertained to the $350 million purchase of new debt, the sources said.

At one SOE at least, there is fear that Greenland might fall further into financial strife and of the potential fallout if that happens.

The written instructions with a Shanghai SASAC letterhead that ordered the purchase of Greenland's bonds are being kept in a safe place in case Greenland defaults and SOE officials are called to account for their actions, said one person with knowledge of the matter.

(Reporting by Engen Tham, Xie Yu, Zhang Yan, Julie Zhu and Clare Jim; Additional reporting by Andrew Galbraith; Editing by Sumeet Chatterjee and Edwina Gibbs)

Distant Supernova Discovered by Homeless Amateur Astronomer

Robert Lea 

A self-taught astronomer who is currently homeless has discovered a hitherto unknown exploding star, or supernova. Filipp Romanov from Moscow, Russia, discovered the supernova which has been designated SN 2022bsi located in the galaxy NGC 5902 in the Bootes constellation in early February this year.

The 24-year-old amateur astronomer is no stranger to discovering astronomical objects and events, with 80 variable stars, 10 planetary nebulas, four pairs of binary stars, and more to his name. But, this marks the first time he has spotted a supernova.

Romanov told Newsweek: "For the first time in my life I discovered a supernova which was later confirmed by the spectrum [the light it emits].

"On February 9, 2022, I found a supernova candidate in the images from the CRTS (Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey), in The Great Supernova Hunt project. It was added by the project administrator to the Transient Name Server (TNS) of the International Astronomical Union on the same date."

© Filipp Romanov An image of the new supernova discovered by Filipp Romanov as seen by iTelescope T24 Filipp Romanov

Romanov discovered the supernova when he requested pictures of NGC 5902, collected using remote telescope 21 located at the New Mexico Skies Observatory in Mayhill, New Mexico, and stacked the images.

Romanov explained: "This astronomical transient was clearly visible in the stacked image, indicating that it really exists. On February 28, 2022, it was confirmed as a supernova and its type has been classified using analysis of the spectrum

that was obtained at the Palomar 60-inch (1.5m) telescope."

SN 2022bsi has been classified as an SN Ia-91bg-like supernova, a sub-class of Type Ia supernovae, that is located at a redshift of 0.0369 which gives it an estimated distance of approximately 508 million light-years from Earth.

Romanov, who said he began his self-education in astronomy in 2009, told Newsweek that he had hoped to study the science at a university, but this is not possible as since 2017 he and his mother have been homeless.

The astronomer explains: "I don't have a place to prepare for entrance examinations, because along with my mother Larisa and our 16-year-old cat Fanya, I have been homeless for more than five years."

Romanov explained that this predicament, which stemmed from trouble in the communal apartment where he lived in Moscow that he said left him and his mother in danger, has also led to him being separated from his beloved telescopes.

In 2021 Romanov, who suffers from bronchial asthma and a heart defect, was granted complimentary two-year membership of the American Association of Variable Star Observers.

On November 13, 2020, Romanov was able to give his presentation "Discoveries of Variable Stars by Amateur Astronomers Using Data Mining: On the Example of Eclipsing Binary Romanov V20" to the AAVSO's 109th Annual Meeting.

The lack of formal education and his difficult personal circumstances has not hampered Romanov publishing his work in academic journals, with his latest paper appearing in The Astrophysical Journal.

Romanov told Newsweek of his commitment to educating the public in astronomy and spreading his love of the subject. He concluded: "I really love to study the science of astronomy and I am glad to tell people about astronomy, which I have been popularizing for free for many years."

UK

SoftBank's Arm plans to cut up to 1,000 jobs after collapse of $40 billion Nvidia deal

Widely regarded as the jewel in the crown of the U.K. tech sector, Arm employs around 6,400 people worldwide and roughly half of those are in the U.K.

While it is headquartered in Cambridge, England, the company has been owned by Japanese tech giant SoftBank.

Former Arm CEO Simon Segars told The Telegraph last July that the company may need to cut jobs if the Nvidia deal was blocked

.

Sam Shead 

CNBC

LONDON — British chip designer Arm is planning to cut up to 1,000 jobs, or 15% of its workforce, just weeks after its $40 billion deal with Nvidia collapsed.

Widely regarded as the jewel in the crown of the U.K. tech sector, Arm employs employs around 6,400 people worldwide and roughly half of those are in the U.K.

"Like any business, Arm is continually reviewing its business plan to ensure the company has the right balance between opportunities and cost discipline," an Arm spokesperson told CNBC Tuesday.

"Unfortunately, this process includes proposed redundancies across Arm's global workforce."

They added: "If the proposals go ahead, we anticipate that around 12-15% percent of people in Arm would be affected globally."

While Arm is headquartered in Cambridge, England, the company has been owned by Japanese tech giant SoftBank, which paid around $32 billion for the firm in 2016.

SoftBank announced in Sept. 2020 that it planned to sell Arm to U.S. chip giant Nvidia for $40 billion but the deal was scrapped in February following a period of intense scrutiny from competition regulators in the U.S., EU, China, and the U.K.

Opponents had several gripes, but the main issue with the deal was around access to Arm's innovative chip designs.

Arm licenses its "architecture" to hundreds of companies around the world. Apple uses them in iPhones and iPads, Amazon uses them in Kindles, and car manufacturers use them in vehicles. If Nvidia stopped other companies using Arm's chip designs in their semiconductors then analysts said the implications could have been huge.

Critics of the deal also suggested that Nvidia may cut jobs at Arm once it took ownership of the company. However, Nvidia repeatedly stressed that it wanted to invest in Arm.

Former Arm CEO Simon Segars told The Telegraph last July that the company may need to cut jobs if the Nvidia deal was blocked.

SoftBank is now planning to take Arm public with the Nvidia deal off the table. Masayoshi Son, SoftBank's CEO, said in February that the company will most likely be listed on New York's Nasdaq stock exchange.

However, pressure is mounting on SoftBank to dual-list the company.

Julian Rowe, general partner at tech investment firm Latitude, told CNBC that the U.K. government should be doing all it can to make sure homegrown successful tech businesses like Arm are not being sold too early and too cheaply to international acquirers, or choosing to take their valued listings overseas.

"History will tell you that Nasdaq or NYSE might be a more natural home for a chip designer like Arm, but that underestimates the degree to which Arm is arguably the least known success story in U.K. tech and the special position it can occupy through a London listing," Rowe said.

"It has the potential to become a standard bearer in the U.K. high growth tech scene."

VW and Goldman Sachs-backed Northvolt plans German gigafactory

Anmar Frangoul 

Construction of facilities focused on EV batteries come at a time when some major economies are looking to move away from vehicles based on gasoline and diesel.
Northvolt says Northvolt Drei — "drei" is three in German — will be its third gigafactory.
The European Commission, the EU's executive arm, is targeting a 100% reduction in CO2 emissions from cars and vans by 2035.

© Provided by CNBC A lithium-ion prismatic cell battery from Northvolt, photographed on Feb. 17, 2022.

Northvolt said Tuesday it would look to build a gigafactory in Germany, with the firm hoping the facility's first batteries will be produced in 2025.

In a statement, the Stockholm-headquartered battery maker said the Northvolt Drei plant would be located in Heide, northern Germany, and provide lithium-ion batteries for the European market.

Northvolt said the plant's "potential production capacity" was slated to be 60 gigawatt hours per year, which would be "sufficient for some one million electric vehicles."

The firm said Northvolt Drei — "drei" is three in German — would be its third gigafactory. Gigafactories are facilities that produce batteries for electric vehicles on a large scale. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been widely credited as coining the term.

Northvolt said the location of the factory in the state of Schleswig-Holstein would enable it to tap into the area's energy grid.

It described the grid as being "characterized by a surplus of electricity generated by onshore and offshore wind power and reinforced by clean energy provided through grid interconnections to Denmark and Norway."

Northvolt was founded in 2016 and has attracted investment from Goldman Sachs and Volkswagen, among others.

"It matters how we produce a battery cell," Peter Carlsson, Northvolt's CEO, said Tuesday. "If you use coal in your production, you embed a fair amount of CO2 into your battery, but if we use clean energy, we can build a very sustainable product," Carlsson said.

"Our philosophy is that new energy-intensive industries, such as battery manufacturing, should be established in actual geographical proximity to where the clean energy is produced."

Northvolt is not alone in looking to establish a gigafactory in Germany, an industrial and economic powerhouse that's home to a highly skilled labor force. Tesla is working on its Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg, for example.

Elsewhere, VW — which in Dec. 2021 said it had a stake of roughly 20% in Northvolt — wants to develop a number of its own gigafactories in Europe, including one in the German state of Lower Saxony.

Further afield, on Monday Ford said it had signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with South Korea's SK On Co. and Turkey's Koç Holding.

The MOU relates to the establishment of a joint venture centered around the development of a commercial EV battery facility near the Turkish capital of Ankara. If all goes to plan, it's hoped production at the plant could begin by the middle of this decade.

Ford said the JV had support from the Turkish government and would have a capacity ranging between 30 to 45 gigawatt hours per year.

Efforts to establish facilities focused on EV batteries come at a time when major economies are looking to reduce the environmental footprint of road-based transportation and move away from vehicles based on gasoline and diesel.

The European Commission, the EU's executive arm, is targeting a 100% reduction in CO2 emissions from cars and vans by 2035. Turkey, where the Ford-backed battery facility would be located, is not part of the EU.

The U.K., which left the EU at the end of January 2020, wants to stop the sale of new diesel and gasoline cars and vans by 2030. It will require, from 2035, all new cars and vans to have zero-tailpipe emissions.

‘People are dying’: Global warming already being seen in North America, UN report finds

Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAY 12 hrs ago

People are dying from more intense heat waves, hurricanes and flooding. Forests are disappearing because of worsening wildfires, droughts and pest invasions. Rising sea levels are imperiling coastal communities and ecosystems.

After three years of studying the latest science, the extensive footprints of the world’s warming climate in North America are more obvious than ever, concluded the authors of the newest report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The report, issued last week, found that life in some parts of the world is rapidly reaching the point where it will be too hot for the species that live there to survive.

But the effects are not limited to the world's hot spots, the panel's co-authors said last week as they discussed their findings. They’re happening here. They’re happening now. And they will only get worse without immediate action to adapt and reverse greenhouse gas emissions.

"Climate change impacts in North America have been occurring faster, and will become more severe, much sooner than we had previously thought," said co-author Sherilee Harper, an associate professor in the public health school at Canada's University of Alberta.

Rachel Bezner Kerr, a professor of global development at Cornell University and coordinating lead author of a chapter on food and fiber, agreed.

“No one is left unaffected by climate change,” she said. “Every increased amount of warming will increase the risk of severe impacts, and so the more (rapidly) we can take strong action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the less severe the impacts will be.”

Investigation: How a summer of extreme weather reveals a stunning shift in the way rain falls in America.

Their report delves into more detail than ever about the consequences of hotter climates and more extreme weather on ecosystems and people’s physical and mental well-being. It also describes alternatives that could lessen these effects, such as using locally produced foods and plant-based diets and restoring ecosystems that can cool temperatures and help keep carbon out of the atmosphere.

Georgia Silvera Seamans, an urban and community forester in New York City, found hope in the report’s attention to possible solutions.

“In some ways, the report provides a deeply discouraging outlook on our future. I mean, people are dying and it’s a reality. We can no longer say this is going to happen. It’s happening now,” Seamans said. “But in some ways there are a lot of opportunities to really mitigate some of the most dire outcomes.”

© NASA/SUOMI NPP VIIRS One of the effects of climate change already being seen in North America? More intense hurricanes, like this image of Harvey off the coast of Texas in August 2017.

What the scientists found

Such dire outcomes are more widespread and negative than in any of the reports since the intergovernmental panel was formed in 1998, several of the report's authors said.

Among their findings in North America:
Species-killing marine heat waves, stronger hurricanes, extreme rainfall, reductions in snowpack and glaciers and in the volume and extent of sea ice.
Native cutthroat trout are threatened by the invasive rainbow trout as it spreads into warmer waters in the West.
Trees dying from wildfire, drought and pest invasions, and more extensive burned acreage in parts of the West.
Reduced agriculture producti has been noted since 1961, outweighing gains seen in increased yields of maize and soybeans in the Great Plains.
Increased warming of offshore waters, especially along the Atlantic coast, where low-lying communities already routinely see disruption caused by changes to coastal ecosystems, sea level rise and flooding.

Matters are only likely to get worse, with potentially irreversible changes to ecosystems, mounting economic damages to infrastructure and housing, and disruption of livelihoods, the report's co-authors said.

Additional warming could further reduce yields of wheat, corn and soybeans, raising concerns about food security. Scientists also expect declines in livestock production and worsening conditions on recreational and commercial fishing.

Indigenous peoples: 'They're finally listening': Indigenous peoples play major role in new climate report

The worst outcomes will be for those who are already vulnerable, without good diets, good jobs or capital to improve their homes, said Michael Oppenheimer, a climate scientist and professor of geoscience and international affairs at Princeton University, a review editor for a chapter in the overall report.

Specifically, in the warmer parts of the country along the Gulf Coast already experiencing deadly hurricanes, flooding and sea level rise, Oppenheimer said that "even a modest amount of warming means a higher risk of what's causing the highest number of deaths."
Alternatives to slow climate change

Strong action is needed quickly to avoid future disruptions, the report’s authors said. Among the suggested strategies:

Seamans, the New York City forester, was pleased to see some of the alternatives echo similar findings she reached while working as an urban forester to help bring trees, green spaces and youth education to her community.

Planting biologically diverse forests in city parks can lower temperatures in what’s known as urban "heat islands" while also addressing flooding by reducing runoff. The parks also can boost residents’ mental and physical well-being by providing places to rest and play.

She plans to use the report to help persuade elected officials to take timely action.

“We want policymakers to think about the direness of climate change and to recognize the role nature and biodiversity can play in mitigating some of the worst aspects of climate change," she said.

Many cities are making steady but incremental progress on climate change, the co-authors wrote. But Harper, the professor from Canada, noted that efforts in North America and the U.S. in particular had been made “more urgent by the delays in climate action due to misinformation about climate change science."

'Ultimate injustice': World leaders, climate experts react to grave United Nations report

Even though a divide remains over the extent people believe the scientific evidence, Elisabeth Gilmore, a report author who is a visiting professor at Rutgers University and associate professor at Canada’s Carleton University, now sees more things that people agree upon than they disagree about.

"Climate change affects everything we care about,” she said. "If we can talk about things like safety and human security in a way that looks at what do we have, what do we need, what are the steps we want to take to do something about it, it changes the story in a way that’s much more helpful.”

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: ‘People are dying’: Global warming already being seen in North America, UN report finds

Northwest Territories' first wood bison season since 2012 ends

Limited harvesting of the Mackenzie wood bison herd ends on Tuesday, closing the first season since 2012 in which N.W.T. residents have been able to hunt the animal.

Anthrax poisoning caused more than 450 bison in the herd to die in 2012, dropping their number to just over 700 and triggering a territorial pause on harvesting.

Terry Armstrong, an N.W.T. government bison ecologist, says the herd – commonly seen on Highway 3 between Fort Providence and Behchokǫ̀ – had sufficiently recovered for harvesting to resume in a limited capacity.

A 2019 survey determined there were about 1,470 animals.

Forty tags to harvest male bison were given to Indigenous groups in the North Slave, South Slave, and Dehcho, to be used between September 1, 2021 and March 15, 2022.

Armstrong said groups were “very eager for us reopen hunting on that population.”

The Northwest Territory Métis Nation was among tag recipients. Garry Bailey, its president, welcomed being able to hunt bison again but said this year's program had not worked for the group, which represents the Métis of the South Slave.

“They’re giving us a season but we don’t harvest in seasons as Aboriginal people, we hunt year-round, and it’s only four bison they’ve allowed us to get for our membership of 3,000 people,” Bailey said.

Bailey said 100 bison tags would more realistically provide enough meat to make country food more accessible to the N.W.T. Métis Nation's members and improve food security.

According to Bailey, a defined hunting season doesn't work as factors like winter extreme cold deter harvesters.

“I think it should be left open for us," he said. "We’re only taking bulls as it is, so there’s no reason for them to have the seasonal harvest. We should be able to go get the bison when we’re ready to go get them.”

Of the four tags the group received, Bailey said on Friday none had yet been used. He said he wanted the season to be extended but that request had not been answered.

“I’d like to be able to negotiate the amount of bison that we should be able to take," he said of future seasons. "We represent three communities and one buffalo per community is not enough – it’s not even close to enough."

Cabin Radio contacted other recipients of bison tags, including the offices of the Deh Gáh Got’ı̨ę First Nation, Fort Providence Métis Council, and the Tłı̨chǫ Government, but did not receive responses.

Armstrong expects harvesting to remain regulated – including a limited number of tags – for some time, to ensure herd numbers are strong.

An updated aerial count in 2023 will assess the herd’s growth over the past four years. That survey may lead to an adjustment of tag numbers.

Bailey said country food supply is being stretched on several fronts. Factors he listed include an inability to harvest animals in Wood Buffalo National Park, a decrease in the moose harvest, and having to travel farther to harvest caribou within the appropriate zone.

“It probably takes us a week to 10 days to actually go get caribou," he said.

"Not many people have the kind of time to go do that. Getting caribou is pretty scarce on our end."

Sarah Sibley, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, Cabin Radio

CRIMINAL HIP CAPITALI$M
CannTrust to change name as it exits creditor protection with new majority investor

VAUGHAN, Ont. — CannTrust Holdings Inc. plans to change its name after exiting creditor protection, with its subsidiary receiving $17 million in financing from a group of investors led by a Netherlands-based private equity investment company.

© Provided by The Canadian Press

The beleaguered Ontario-based cannabis company has yet to unveil its new moniker but plans to convene a meeting of its shareholders within the next four months.

Marshall Fields International B.V., a subsidiary of Kenzoll B.V., has invested $11.2 million to acquire a 90 per cent equity interest in CannTrust Equity and provided a $5.5 million secured credit facility.

CannTrust retains the remaining 10 per cent of the common shares of CannTrust Equity.

The company has therefore now emerged from court-supervised proceedings under the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act.

It intends to either apply to the Ontario Securities Commission for an order revoking the OSC's "failure-to-file" cease-trade order dated April 13, 2020 or take steps to obtain a stock exchange listing for the common shares of CannTrust Equity.

"This marks the end of one long journey and the beginning of a new, exciting era for CannTrust. Today we can take our first step forward, focusing our attention on the bright future that lies ahead, with our new partners, Kenzoll," stated CannTrust CEO Greg Guyatt in a news release.

Founded in 2013, CannTrust faced class-action lawsuits from investors who said they lost millions of dollars after the company allegedly made misrepresentations about having necessary licences for growing cannabis.

Securities charges against three former executives — former chief executive Peter Aceto, former vice-chairman Mark Litwin, and former chairman Eric Paul — are set to be reviewed in Ontario court Sept. 20.

Aceto, Paul and Litwin each face charges of fraud, making false or misleading statements and authorizing, permitting or acquiescing in the commission of an offence. Litwin and Paul are also facing insider trading charges and Litwin and Aceto are charged with making a false prospectus and false preliminary prospectus.

The quasi-criminal charges were announced in June by the Ontario Securities Commission, roughly three years after CannTrust was found to be growing thousands of kilograms of cannabis in unlicensed rooms.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 15, 2022.

The Canadian Press

21,000 DOWNLOADS FAR FROM MASSIVE

Elon Musk's SpaceX Starlink Internet App: Massive Downloads In Ukraine

For folks wondering if Starlink is working in Ukraine, or if many in the country are even aware of it, here we have it.

Steven Loveday 

According to a recent report by our friends at Teslarati, the SpaceX Starlink internet mobile app saw a whopping 21,000 installs in Ukraine last Sunday. This number made it the most downloaded app in the country on the day.

© InsideEVs spacex starlink internet 2

The information came from a Wall Street Journal article that notes an analytics company called Sensor Tower has been tracking the app's downloads from Apple and Google's online app stores. The article actually notes that app downloads for Starlink internet have been "soaring" in general, though it's most obvious in the battered country amid the Russian invasion.

When Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk first mentioned that Starlink internet was activated in Ukraine, and the necessary terminals were en route, many people were skeptical. However, the first shipment arrived in Ukraine in fewer than 48 hours, and there has been at least one additional shipment since then, which also included Tesla Powerwall batteries, solar inverters, and more.

We've also learned that Starlink is reportedly functioning well in Ukraine, and that officials in the country have been working to alert citizens about the service and the app, which are being provided free of charge at this point.

Sensor Tower also noted that as of last Sunday, there had already been nearly 100,000 Starlink internet mobile app downloads from Ukraine's Google and Apple online app stores. While some may feel the internet and mobile apps aren't primary necessities during a time of war, Starlink has already proven very helpful to many Ukrainians, for obvious reasons. Moreover, reliable internet access could prove integral to the Ukrainian government as the war surges on.

With power outages across the country and many people's homes destroyed, internet access is becoming an issue. Tesla's Poweralls can keep the Starlink terminals powered up, at least for a time, and perhaps indefinitely if connected to a solar system. This is a wise plan since the ongoing concern is that Russia will make a more direct attempt to take out Ukraine's internet services and any other forms of communication it can disable.

Read These Related Articles For More Details:

Elon Musk Sends Tesla Powerwalls, More Starlink Terminals To Ukraine

Tesla Reportedly Makes Powerwall "How-To" Video For Ukrainians

There is already a growing number of reports of power and internet outages across Ukraine, and it only stands to get worse as the Russian invasion continues. Elon Musk has been in direct contact with Ukraine's vice prime minister and minister for Digital Transformation, Mykhail Feodorov, as well as president Volodymyr Zelensky.

Musk has also issued various warnings and provided Starlink tips to further help the country. More recently, it appears someone from Tesla and/or SpaceX put together a "how-to" video (linked above) to help people learn to use the Tesla Powerwalls to keep the Starlink internet service online.

Source: Teslarati

Russian internet users are learning to beat Putin's internet crackdown

By Brian Fung, CNN Business 

A digital Iron Curtain may be descending on Russia, as President Vladimir Putin struggles to control the narrative about his war in Ukraine. The Kremlin has already moved to block Facebook and Twitter, and its latest step in that direction came Friday as the government announced plans to block Instagram in the country, as well

.

© Gabby Jones/Bloomberg/Getty Images The Signal logo on a smartphone.

But despite Putin's efforts to clamp down on social media and information within his borders, a growing number of Russian internet users appear determined to access outside sources and circumvent the Kremlin's restrictions.

To defeat Russia's internet censorship, many are turning to specialized circumvention technology that's been widely used in other countries with restricted online freedoms, including China and Iran. Digital rights experts say Putin may have inadvertently sparked a massive, permanent shift in digital literacy in Russia that will work against the regime for years.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russians have been flocking to virtual private networks (VPNs) and encrypted messaging apps, tools that can be used to access blocked websites such as Facebook or safely share news about the war in Ukraine without running afoul of new, draconian laws banning what Russian authorities consider to be "fake" claims about the conflict.

A rapid rise in downloads

During the week of February 28, Russian internet users downloaded the five leading VPN apps on Apple and Google's app stores a total of 2.7 million times, a nearly three-fold increase in demand compared to the week before, according to the market research firm SensorTower.

That growth dovetails with what some VPN providers have reported. Switzerland-based Proton, for example, told CNN Business it has seen a 1,000% spike in signups from Russia this month. (The company declined to provide a baseline figure for comparison, however.)

VPN providers are just one type of application seeing higher uptake in Russia. Since March 1, a range of messaging apps including Meta's Messenger and WhatsApp services have seen a gradual increase in traffic, said the internet infrastructure company Cloudflare, a trend consistent with an increase in traffic to global social media platforms such as Twitter, YouTube, Instagram and TikTok.

But perhaps the fastest-growing messaging app in Russia may be the encrypted messaging app Signal. SensorTower said Signal was downloaded 132,000 times in the country last week, an increase of more than 28% from the week before. Russian internet traffic to Signal has seen "significant growth" since March 1, Cloudflare told CNN Business.

Other private messaging apps, such as Telegram, saw a relative slowdown in growth that week but still witnessed more than half a million downloads in that timeframe, SensorTower said.

In recent weeks, Russian internet users also appear to have increased their reliance on Tor, a service that anonymizes internet browsing by scrambling a user's traffic and bouncing it through multiple servers around the world. Beginning the day of the Ukraine invasion, Tor's metrics page estimated that thousands more Russian users were accessing the web through secret servers connected to Tor's decentralized network.

Tor users got a helping hand from Twitter on Tuesday, as the social network — which has been partially blocked in Russia following the invasion — added the ability to access its platform through a specialized website designed for Tor users. Facebook, for its part, has had its own Tor site since 2014.

And Lantern, a peer-to-peer tool that routes internet traffic around government firewalls, began seeing more downloads from Russia starting about two months ago, said Sascha Meinrath, a communications professor at Penn State University who sits on the board of Lantern's parent company, Brave New Software.

Lantern has seen a 2,000% increase in downloads from Russia alone over the past two months, Meinrath said, with the service going from 5,000 monthly users in Russia to more than 120,000. By comparison, Meinrath said, Lantern has between 2 million and 3 million users globally, mostly in China and Iran.

"Tor, Lantern, all the VPNs, anything that's masking who you are or where you're going —Telegram — everything, downloads are increasing dramatically," said Meinrath. "And it's a bootstrapping thing, so the people that are on Telegram, they're using that to swap notes about what else you should download."

The most tech-savvy and privacy-conscious users, said Meinrath, know how to combine multiple tools together to maximize their protection — for example, by using Lantern to get around government blocks while also using Tor to anonymize their activity.

The war for information technology

The growing prominence of some of these tools highlights the stakes for Russian internet users as the Kremlin has detained thousands of people for protesting the war in Ukraine. And it contrasts with the steps Russia has taken to clamp down on social media, from blocking Facebook entirely to passing a law that threatens up to 15 years behind bars for those who share what the Kremlin deems "fake" information about the war.

Natalia Krapiva, a lawyer at the digital rights group Access Now, said some Russian internet users have been using secure communications tools for years, as the Russian government began restricting internet freedoms more than a decade ago.

In the past, the Russian government has tried to block Tor and VPN providers, Krapiva said. But it hasn't been very successful, she said, due to Tor's open, decentralized design that hinges on many distributed servers and the willingness of new VPN providers to fill the gap left behind by banned ones. What Russia faces now is an intensifying game of cat and mouse, Krapiva said.

But while Putin may not be able to shut down censorship-resistant technologies entirely, supporters of the Kremlin can still try to drag it into Russia's wider information war and hinder adoption.

On February. 28, Signal said it was aware of rumors suggesting the platform had been compromised in a hack — a claim the company flatly denied. Without blaming Russia directly, Signal said it suspected the rumors were being spread as "part of a coordinated misinformation campaign meant to encourage people to use less secure alternatives."

Signal's claim underscores how quickly the information war has evolved from being about the news coming out of Ukraine to being about the services people use to access and discuss that news.

If only a small minority of Russians end up embracing circumvention technologies to get access to outside information, it may allow Putin to dominate the information space within the country. And while there are many indications of growing interest in these tools, it appears to be on the scale of thousands, not millions, at least for now.

"The concern, of course, is that the majority of the people, the general population, might not necessarily know about those tools," said Krapiva. "[They] can be complex if your digital literacy is quite low, so it's going to remain a challenge to have a bigger section of the population really adopt these tools. But I'm sure there will be more education and I want to remain hopeful they will persevere."

Normalizing censorship-resistant tech

Some digital rights experts say it's important for these tools to be used for ordinary and innocuous internet activities, too, not just potentially subversive ones. Performing mundane tasks like checking email, accessing streaming movies or talking to friends using these technologies makes it harder for authoritarian regimes to justify cracking down on them, and can make it more difficult to identify efforts to violate government restrictions on speech and access.

"The more that regular users use censorship-resistant technology for everyday activities like unblocking movies, the better," said John Scott-Railton, a security and disinformation researcher at The University of Toronto's Citizen Lab.

And this may only be the start. Meinrath said the government restrictions will likely trigger not just broader adoption of circumvention tools in Russia but also further research and development of new tools by Russia's highly skilled and tech-savvy population.

"We're at the beginning of a J-curve," Meinrath said, adding: "This is a one-way transformation in Russia."