Understanding climate mobilities: New study examines perspectives from South Florida practitioners

As climate change continues to impact people across South Florida, the need for adaptive responses becomes increasingly important.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI ROSENSTIEL SCHOOL OF MARINE, ATMOSPHERIC, AND EARTH SCIENCE

 

IMAGE: 

CLIMATE MOBILITIES, WHILE PRESENTING BENEFITS, ALSO POSE SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES. THEY SERVE AS A PATH FOR ADAPTATION PLANNING AND POLICIES, PROMPTING CRUCIAL QUESTIONS ABOUT INCORPORATION INTO POLICY PLANNING AND THE NEED FOR FUNDAMENTAL INNOVATIONS.

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CREDIT: NADIA A. SEETERAM, PH.D.

Understanding Climate Mobilities: New study examines perspectives from South Florida practitioners

As climate change continues to impact people across South Florida, the need for adaptive responses becomes increasingly important.

A recent study led by researchers at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, assessed the perspectives of 76 diverse South Florida climate adaptation professionals. The study titled, “Practitioner perspectives on climate mobilities in South Florida” was published in the December issue of the Journal Oxford Open Climate Change, and explores the expectations and concerns of practitioners from the private sector, community-based organizations, and government agencies about the region’s ability to adapt in the face of increasing sea level rise and diverse consequences for where people live and move, also known as climate mobility.

Conducted through extensive interviews, the research underscores the growing significance of climate mobility as a crucial adaptive response in the face of increased climate challenges. While previous studies have primarily focused on resident perspectives on mobility, this study delves into the views of professionals, offering insights that could potentially shape future strategies and outcomes.

"This study is a deep dive aiming to understand the perspectives of leading experts on where we are right now in our climate responses in South Florida,” said Katharine Mach, lead author of the study and a professor and chair of the Department of Environmental Science and Policy at the Rosenstiel School. “These types of conversations are crucial to our prospects for unleashing innovations and successes in regional climate adaptations and preparedness.”

 

Key findings reveal a consensus among the professionals about the inevitability of various forms of climate mobilities in South Florida. Anticipated movements of people and infrastructure assets away from hazardous areas were highlighted, indicating an urgent need for comprehensive adaptation planning.

However, while recognizing the necessity of climate mobility strategies, the interviewed practitioners expressed concerns regarding the current impact of such movements. They highlighted issues of distributional inequities, socio-cultural disruptions, and financial disparities arising from ongoing migrations and gentrification in which climate plays some role.

The findings illuminated a critical gap between individual preparedness among practitioners and the overall readiness of the region to support and manage the expected climate-driven relocations. This discrepancy raises concerns about collective-action failures and the urgency for a more ambitious, long-term transition plan.

Climate mobilities, while presenting benefits, also pose significant challenges. They serve as a path for adaptation planning and policies, prompting crucial questions about incorporation into policy planning and the need for fundamental innovations.

According to the researchers, the study serves as an intervention itself, providing insights that might otherwise remain unexplored, fostering a deeper understanding of the challenges and opportunities associated with climate mobilities. The findings aim to inform and guide policymakers, stakeholders, and practitioners toward more proactive and inclusive approaches to climate adaptation.

The study’s authors include: Katharine J. Mach1,2, Jennifer Niemann1,2, Rosalind Donald3, Jessica Owley1,2,4, Nadia A. Seeteram5, A.R. Siders 6,7, Xavier I. Cortada 2,4,8,9, Alex Nyburg10, Adam Roberti11, Ian A. Wright12

1 Department of Environmental Science and Policy, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA. 2 Leonard and Jayne Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA. 3 School of Communication, American University, Washington, DC, USA. 4 University of Miami School of Law, Coral Gables, FL, USA. 5 Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA. 6 Disaster Research Center, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA. 7 Biden School of Public Policy and Administration and Geography and Spatial Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA. 8 Department of Art and Art History, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA. 9 Department of Pediatrics, University of Miami Leonard M. Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL, USA. 10 Department of Biology, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA. 11 Xavier Cortada Foundation, Pinecrest Gardens, FL, USA. 12 Department of Economics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA

The study was supported by the University of Miami Laboratory for Integrative Knowledge (U-LINK), the Leonard and Jayne Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy, the Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science and the U.S. National Science Foundation, award numbers 2034308 and 2034239.

About the University of Miami

The University of Miami is a private research university and academic health system with a distinct geographic capacity to connect institutions, individuals, and ideas across the hemisphere and around the world. The University’s vibrant and diverse academic community comprises 12 schools and colleges serving more than 17,000 undergraduate and graduate students in more than 180 majors and programs. Located within one of the most dynamic and multicultural cities in the world, the University is building new bridges across geographic, cultural, and intellectual borders, bringing a passion for scholarly excellence, a spirit of innovation, a respect for including and elevating diverse voices, and a commitment to tackling the challenges facing our world. Founded in the 1940’s, the Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science has grown into one of the world’s premier marine and atmospheric research institutions. Offering dynamic interdisciplinary academics, the Rosenstiel School is dedicated to helping communities to better understand the planet, participating in the establishment of environmental policies, and aiding in the improvement of society and quality of life. www.earth.miami.edu.

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JOURNAL

Oxford Open Climate Change

DOI

10.1093/oxfclm/kgad015 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Survey

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Practitioner perspectives on climate mobilities in South Florida

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

4-Dec-2023

COI STATEMENT

none

 

Subsidence risk on the U.S. East Coast

Peer-Reviewed Publication

PNAS NEXUS

 

IMAGE: 

VERTICAL LAND MOTION ON THE US EAST COAST (LEFT); PRIMARY, SECONDARY, AND INTERSTATE ROADS IN HAMPTON ROADS, VA (TOP RIGHT), AND JFK AIRPORT (BOTTOM RIGHT). NOTE THAT THE YELLOW ORANGE AND RED AREAS ON THESE MAPS INDICATE SINKING.

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CREDIT: OHENHEN ET AL.

A large area of the U.S. East Coast is sinking. Within that extent, a smaller area of up to 3,700 km2 is sinking more than 5 mm per year. Subsidence can undermine building foundations, damage roads, gas and water lines, cause building collapse, and exacerbate coastal flooding—especially when paired with sea level rise due to climate change. Leonard O. Ohenhen and colleagues used measurements of vertical land motion rates derived from radar satellite datasets to estimate which areas, populations, and infrastructure within 100 km of the U.S. East Coast are at risk of land subsidence. Subsidence rates of 2 mm per year affect up to 2.1 million people and 867,000 properties on the East Coast, with several communities having over 60% of their land area sinking, including Norfolk, VA; Virginia Beach, VA; Baltimore, MD; and Queens, the Bronx, and Long Island in New York City. In these communities, several critical infrastructures such as roads, railways, airports, and levees are also affected by differing subsidence rates. For example, the JFK and LaGuardia airports in New York show several areas sinking at more than 2 mm per year, including the runways. Subsidence is often caused by groundwater extraction or sediment compaction. Some cities are rising, however, as the North American continent continues its long slow rebound from the weight of the glaciers that pressed the land downwards during the last glacial period, around 10,000 years ago. Today, around the Chesapeake Bay, a patchy mix of rising and falling land creates medium–high risk of differential subsidence, in which angular distortion caused by strain changes between two adjacent points can tear structures apart over time. The authors note that while there is no universally agreed-upon threshold of subsidence that raises concern for policymakers and citizens, continuous unmitigated subsidence on the U.S. East Coast could cause concern particularly due to the high population and property density and the complacency towards infrastructure maintenance.

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JOURNAL

PNAS Nexus

ARTICLE TITLE

Slowly but surely: Exposure of communities and infrastructure to subsidence on the US east coast

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

2-Jan-2024

Study: From NYC to DC and beyond, cities on the East Coast are sinking

Peer-Reviewed Publication

VIRGINIA TECH

 

IMAGE: 

THE ABOVE GRAPHIC FEATURES: A SPATIAL MAP OF VERTICAL LAND MOTION ON THE EAST COAST (LEFT PANEL); PRIMARY, SECONDARY, AND INTERSTATE ROADS ON HAMPTON ROADS, NORFOLK, AND VIRGINIA BEACH, VIRGINIA (TOP RIGHT PANEL); AND JOHN F. KENNEDY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NEW YORK (BOTTOM RIGHT PANEL). THE YELLOW, ORANGE AND RED AREAS ON THESE MAPS DENOTE AREAS OF SINKING.

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CREDIT: IMAGES BY LEONARD OHENHEN.

Major cities on the U.S. Atlantic coast are sinking, in some cases as much as 5 millimeters per year – a decline at the ocean’s edge that well outpaces global sea level rise, confirms new research from Virginia Tech and the U.S. Geological Survey.

Particularly hard hit population centers such as New York City and Long Island, Baltimore, and Virginia Beach and Norfolk are seeing areas of rapid “subsidence,” or sinking land, alongside more slowly sinking or relatively stable ground, increasing the risk to roadways, runways, building foundations, rail lines, and pipelines, according to a study published today in the Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences.

“Continuous unmitigated subsidence on the U.S. East Coast should cause concern,” said lead author Leonard Ohenhen, a graduate student working with Associate Professor Manoochehr Shirzaei at Virginia Tech’s Earth Observation and Innovation Lab. “This is particularly in areas with a high population and property density and a historical complacency toward infrastructure maintenance.”

Shirzaei and his research team pulled together a vast collection of data points measured by space-based radar satellites and used this highly accurate information to build digital terrain maps that show exactly where sinking landscapes present risks to the health of vital infrastructure. Using the publicly available satellite imagery, Shirzaei and Ohenhen measured millions of occurrences of land subsidence spanning multiple years. They then created some of the world's first high resolution depictions of the land subsidence.

These groundbreaking new maps show that a large area of the East Coast is sinking at least 2 mm per year, with several areas along the mid-Atlantic coast of up to 3,700 square kilometers, or more than 1,400 square miles, sinking more than 5 mm per year, more than the current 4 mm per year global rate of sea level rise.

“We measured subsidence rates of 2 mm per year affecting more than 2 million people and 800,000 properties on the East Coast,” Shirzaei said. “We know to some extent that the land is sinking. Through this study, we highlight that sinking of the land is not an intangible threat. It affects you and I and everyone, it may be gradual, but the impacts are real.”

In several cities along the East Coast, multiple critical infrastructures such as roads, railways, airports, and levees are affected by differing subsidence rates.

“Here, the problem is not just that the land is sinking. The problem is that the hotspots of sinking land intersect directly with population and infrastructure hubs,” said Ohenhen. “For example, significant areas of critical infrastructure in New York, including JFK and LaGuardia airports and its runways, along with the railway systems, are affected by subsidence rates exceeding 2 mm per year. The effects of these right now and into the future are potential damage to infrastructure and increased flood risks."

The new findings appear in the open access journal PNAS Nexus. In the work “Slowly but surely: Exposure of communities and infrastructure to subsidence on the US east coast,” Virginia Tech and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists measured how much the land along the East Coast has sunk and which areas, populations, and critical infrastructure within 100 km of the coast are at risk of land subsidence. Subsidence can undermine building foundations; damage roads, gas, and water lines; cause building collapse; and exacerbate coastal flooding – especially when paired with sea level rise caused by climate change.

“This information is needed. No one else is providing it,” said Patrick Barnard, a research geologist with the USGS and co-author of the study. “Shirzaei and his Virginia Tech team stepped into that niche with his technical expertise and is providing something extremely valuable.”

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JOURNAL

PNAS Nexus

ARTICLE TITLE

Slowly but surely: Exposure of communities and infrastructure to subsidence on the US east coast

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

2-Jan-2024

 

‘Nutritional quality must be at the heart of climate smart agriculture’ - researchers

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS

Farmers in sub-Saharan Africa need to diversify away from growing maize and switch to crops that are resilient to climate change and supply enough key micronutrients for the population, according to a major research study. 

Maize is a staple crop across the region where it is grown and consumed in vast quantities.  

Led by Dr Stewart Jennings from the University of Leeds, the study argues that diversification towards fruits, vegetables and crops such as cassava, millet and sorghum will improve nutrition security in the country, meaning sufficient micronutrients essential for good health.  

The study also says the quantity of food produced must increase - and unless yields are boosted to an unprecedented level, more land will have to be brought into agricultural production. 

Sub-Saharan Africa is home to around 1.2 billion people, and according to figures from the World Bank, the population will grow by an additional 740 million people by 2050.  

Farmers will have to boost the amount of food grown at a time when climate change will result in increasingly extreme conditions, affecting what crops can be grown. 

The researchers say the population is at risk of “food and nutrition insecurity” unless effective ways of adapting to climate change are identified. Integral to any decisions is a requirement that crops need to be nutritious and provide sufficient energy for the population.  

Professor Jennie Macdiarmid, from the Rowett Institute at the University of Aberdeen and one of the authors of the paper, said: “The study has highlighted the need to place nutrition at the heart of agricultural policy to avoid the long-term unintended consequence of failing to produce food that can deliver the nutritional needs of the population. 

“If policy solutions focus only on increasing production of calories and adapting to be climate smart, it is likely there will be negative consequences for health through nutritionally poor diets.” 

The study - Stakeholder-driven transformative adaptation is needed for climate-smart nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa - is published today (Tuesday, January 2) in the scientific journal Nature Food.  

More than 50 researchers contributed to the investigation, which involved talking to policymakers and other stakeholders in the food and agriculture sectors in four countries in sub-Saharan Africa: Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia. 

‘Agriculture and nutrition policies can sit in siloes’ 

The researchers used the iFEED assessment framework to investigate policy options to create an agricultural system that is resilient to climate change and supply enough nutritionally adequate food to meet the food and nutritional needs of the population. 

“Too often food, agriculture and nutrition policies sit in siloes across different government departments,” said Dr Jennings, a Research Fellow in the School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds.  

“This study provides holistic evidence that combines information on environmental impacts of food system changes and the changes needed for population level nutrition security. The research shows that action can be taken to adapt to climate change and improve nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa.”  

Stakeholders in each country identified key uncertainties in the future of the food system. iFEED explores these uncertain futures and identifies key policy issues that decision makers working in the agriculture and food sectors need to consider.  

The scientists say there needs to be a fundamental shift - or “transformative approach” - in agriculture to incorporate nutritional needs.  

Diversifying into soybean production is one option. Soybean crops are more likely to withstand the impacts of climate change compared to maize. Dr Ndashe Kapulu, from the Zambia Agriculture Research Institute and contributing author to the study has been involved in studies to assess how soybean could improve the income of commercial and small-scale farmers.  
 
He said: "Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa will be better able to handle climate change and other stresses if they have more diverse food systems, such as the transition to soybean production in Zambia.  

“As scientists, we need to generate enough evidence in our research to help make changes that support and guide actions to make the agrifood system more resilient.”   

Increasing the production and consumption of animal-based products in sub-Saharan Africa could also improve nutritional quality of diets but the scientists warn that it should not reach the unsustainable production levels seen in some higher income countries.  

More animal-based products would cause a rise in greenhouse gas emissions, although the researchers say that this could be tolerable given sub-Saharan Africa’s need to reduce the risk of nutritionally inadequate diets - and that its greenhouse gas emissions are relatively low. 

The study involved researchers from the University of Leeds, University of Aberdeen, the Met Office, Chatham House and FANPRAN. 

iFEED is a database - developed in part by the University of Leeds under the GCRF AFRICAP programme and the CGIAR Initiative on Climate Resilience - to help decision makers deliver food system policies which are resilient to climate change and deliver nutritious food - reducing the risk of food and nutrition insecurity.  

END 

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JOURNAL

Nature Food

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Survey

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Stakeholder-driven transformative adaptation is needed for climate-smart nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa

Disclaimer: AAAS a

Australia PM considers extra inflation relief as families struggle

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese addresses a joint press conference with US President Joe Biden in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, US, Oct 25, 2023.
PHOTO: Reuters file

JANUARY 02, 2024 


SYDNEY — Australia Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Wednesday (Jan 3) his centre-left government would consider new cost-of-living relief measures ahead of the May budget but without stoking inflation.

Australian households are under broad financial pressure from high inflation, which spiked as high as 7.8 per cent in December 2022, before slowing to 5.4 per cent in the third quarter.

"We've asked Treasury and Finance, as we did in the lead-up to the last budget, we asked them to give consideration to what are the measures that can take pressure off families on cost-of-living without putting pressure on inflation," Albanese said in a press briefing in Sydney.

"That's the key issue here. If you were just to distribute additional cash to people, you potentially make inflation worse, and therefore don't help to solve the problem."

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has had to lift interest rates to a 12-year high of 4.35 per cent to try to bring inflation within its target band of two-three per cent. RBA has jacked up interest rates by a whopping 425 basis points since May last year.

The Albanese-led Labour government in May 2023 announced A$23 billion (S$20.6 billion) in targeted cost-of-living relief, but has since resisted pressure for more relief.

Albanese said steps were being taken to remove all trade impediments with China, Australia's largest trading partner.

His government has taken credit for patching up ties with China since coming to office in May 2022. China has lifted most trade blocks imposed amid a 2020 diplomatic dispute after Australia called for an enquiry into the origins of Covid-19.

Albanese's approval ratings dipped last year as families grapple with high living costs. Two polls out last month showed Albanese was in negative territory, with his disapproval ratings outstripping his approval numbers.

When asked if there would be a federal election this year, Albanese said the next one "is due in May 2025", adding the three-year electoral cycle in Australia was "too short" and suggested four-year terms, in line with Australian states.

The Organized Crime Threat to Latin American Democracies

Governments have learned to manage many threats, but they are failing to curb the growing power of organized crime.

Former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori attends a trial as a witness at the Callao naval base on March 15, 2018. Mariana Bazo/ Reuters

Blog Post by Will Freeman

via Los Angeles Times

 from Latin America’s Moment and Latin America Studies Program

January 2, 2024 

    

Peru’s last dictator, Alberto Fujimori, has pulled off a jailbreak years in the making—not by tunneling his way out of prison but by the graces of the country’s highest court. His early release in December is part of a broader problem in Latin America, where the line between governments and crime keeps getting blurrier.

The 85-year-old Fujimori was a little more than halfway through a 25-year sentence for greenlighting extrajudicial killings and kidnappings and embezzling $15 million during his decade-long rule, which ended in 2000. But Peru’s Constitutional Court was apparently unbothered by his unpaid debt to society. The court brought about his release by reinstating a years-old presidential pardon.

That blatantly violated international law: The Inter-American Court of Human Rights forbade Peru from shortening Fujimori’s sentence. But as the country’s democracy slid into chaos over the last year, Fujimori’s still powerful family worked to get sympathetic judges on the bench

The resulting release of Fujimori, who ran Peru as a mafia state, comes as the country’s politicians are chipping away at the capacity to investigate corruption and organized crime. Peru isn’t alone. In several countries across the region, politicians appear determined to weaken the state’s ability to counter criminal groups.

In Guatemala, dozens of lawmakers sanctioned by the United States for corruption have fought to block President-elect Bernardo Arévalo, an anti-corruption crusader, from taking office. In Ecuador, violent gangs are on their way to taking over, having recruited dozens of public officials to do their bidding, according to the country’s top prosecutor. In Mexico and Brazil, drug cartels and paramilitaries loom large over some state and local governments.

Latin America’s democracies and democrats don’t get enough credit for weathering inequality, violence, and economic stagnation. Miraculously, only two of the region’s former democracies, Venezuela and Nicaragua, have collapsed into full-fledged authoritarianism. In no other part of the world have so many democracies held up under such pressures for so long.

They have even pulled off remarkable but often overlooked successes, nearly halving the share of Latin Americans living in poverty since 2000, largely taming hyperinflation, ending a long tradition of military coups and civil wars, and putting leaders such as Fujimori in jail.

But the increasing power of organized crime stands out as a threat they haven’t countered effectively. For the last 40 years—about as long as Latin America’s democracies have been around—the region’s illicit economies have experienced a practically uninterrupted boom. Chief among them, the global cocaine trade spawned some of the world’s most sophisticated transnational criminal organizations. Such groups have inserted themselves into the above-ground economy by laundering their vast wealth and have branched out into other illegal activities: extortion; mining, logging and fishing in protected areas; and, increasingly, human smuggling.

Organized crime can’t grow without state protection, and Latin American mafias have long made it a mission to capture parts of the state. They have had at least as much success amassing political power as any of the region’s political parties. Lawmakers, police forces, courts, mayors, port authorities, air traffic control, and even presidents have been bought off or coerced to ensure that trafficked drugs, resources, and people flow freely to their destinations—often, in the United States.

Now much of Latin America lives under a hybrid form of government in which both democratic states and organized criminal groups exercise power—sometimes in competition and sometimes together. It’s often immensely difficult to tell who is really in control. “There aren’t just three branches of government here,” a lawyer in Mexico City recently told me. “There’s a fourth: organized crime.”

Until the last decade, criminal groups mainly threatened to capture state institutions in countries that were either major drug producers—such as Colombia and Peru—or unlucky enough to be situated along major trafficking routes: Venezuela, Mexico, and northern Central America. But that’s changing as ambitious criminal groups establish footholds in new countries and markets.

Once-peaceful Ecuador has become a haven for violent gangs specializing in extortion, driving one of Latin America’s largest recent waves of emigration. Costa Rica, a strong democracy known for its safety, is grappling with an alarming surge in killings. Ports in Chile and Uruguay are gaining new importance in the cocaine trade.

When mafias and states merge, corruption and violence can reach such extremes that people will settle for any alternative, even an authoritarian one. The idea of the tough-on-crime strongman has caught on again despite its demonstrated shortcomings.

Fujimori, for example, dispensed with democracy to crush a brutal insurgency that had terrorized Peruvians for years. But as independent institutions and oversight fell away, top state officials didn’t eliminate crime; they just took over the business. It wasn’t until more than a quarter-million Peruvians took to the streets that they were able to oust Fujimori and end his inner circle’s crime spree.

Latin America’s independent prosecutors, judges, and police have shown a better way to tackle crime. In Colombia, Guatemala, and post-Fujimori Peru, they convicted dozens of public officials of abetting organized crime, weakening mafias by depriving them of state protection. Ecuador’s attorney general is making a similar push now.

The results stick only when prosecutions are backed up by anti-corruption reforms, which often prove politically difficult. U.S. support can help.

Congress has dedicated relatively little spending to bolstering the rule of law in Latin America, especially considering that Americans’ voracious drug demand pays a good portion of the salaries of the region’s crime bosses. Meanwhile, U.S.-made firearms flow too easily over our borders, arming Latin America’s gangs and cartels.

Washington can’t manage the unprecedented hemispheric surge in migration without Latin American governments’ help. But securing their cooperation must not mean turning a blind eye to emerging mafia states or abandoning reformers.

Fujimori appeared to be swimming against the tide of history in the 1990s, when every other Latin American country besides Cuba had become a democracy. In retrospect, he looks more like a harbinger of challenges to come. But Peru eventually turned a corner; perhaps Latin America can too.