It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Thursday, January 09, 2020
Déjà vu: New novel ‘The Art of Regret’ is set during 1995 French transport strikes Issued on: 09/01/2020
American author Mary Fleming's latest novel "The Art of Regret" is set during national strikes in France in 1995. It follows the story of American expat Trevor McFarquhar, who opens a bike shop in Paris - and - spoiler alert - the shop is saved from bankruptcy by the strikes. It's a tale of family secrets being unearthed, betrayal, tragedy and making peace with the past. Fleming could never have guessed that it would be published as France finds itself in the grip of the longest industrial action in its modern history. She joined us for Perspective.
ANALYSIS: We may be several weeks away from an end to French pension strikes
Turnout at Thursday's protests will be crucial. Photo: AFP
Is the end in sight for the longest rail strike in France since the 1930s? Maybe, writes John Lichfield, but don't count on a speedy or easy resolution.
The dispute over pension reform has now lasted longer than the May 1968 student and worker revolt. The strikes on the railways are the longest since the 1930s.
Is there light at the end of the tunnel? Maybe. The next couple of days will be crucial.
The government and the more moderate union federations, led by the CFDT, are absurdly close to an agreement after talks on Monday. Almost all that now separates them are spin and bragging rights.
How should they present a mutual climb-down over the government’s proposal to move the de facto full pension age from 62 to 64 in seven years’ time?
The government has more than enough parliamentary support to push through the reform in February - merging 42 chaotic state pension systems into one. In theory, it does not need any of the unions to agree.
In practise, it needs the blessing of the moderate unions if it wants to deflate public suspicion and hostility, still running at 50 to 60 percent, according to opinion polls.
With the militant unions, no agreement is possible. In 23 years covering France, I don’t remember the largest militant federation, the CGT, signing up for anything (not even the Socialist government’s 35-hour week in the late 1990s). Leaders of the hardline CGT union are still adamant that the reforms must be scrapped. Photo: AFP
The reformist CFDT, France’s largest union federation, needs a symbolic victory over the government - but most of all over its ancestral enemy the CGT. It needs to prove that its policy of belligerent but constructive engagement brings greater benefits than belligerent non-engagement.
The CFDT endorses most of the reform. It needs to claim a triumph of some kind on the proposed 64 “pivot age”, when full pensions would apply from 2027. It may yet succeed
The Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe, says that the pivot age, or something similar, is essential to prevent a multi-billion euro black hole in the new, unified state pension system. He needs a symbolic victory to preserve the credibility of a reform which has already been moth-eaten by special concessions to police, firefighters, truckers, nurses and others.
A solution appeared to be in sight before the resumption of talks between the government and the unions on Monday. The financial black hole would be studied by a conference of all parties later this month.
The breakthrough failed to materialise. The Prime Minister insisted that the pivot age must be on the conference table at the start. The CFDT leader Laurent Berger said that it must be withdrawn beforehand (despite seeming to suggest earlier that he might accept it in amended form).
What is at stake here - suffering rail and Metro travellers will be delighted to hear - is more abstract than real. The official retirement age in France is 62 but the average real retirement is already 63. This is likely to rise to 63 and a half before the proposed pivot age of 64 becomes law in 2027.
The chances are that the PM Mr Philippe and the CFDT leader Mr Berger can find a form of words - perhaps at the next meeting on Friday - which will offer both of them a victory of sorts.
The more left-leaning parts of President Emmanuel Macron’s party, La République en Marche, are already fed up with the Prime Minister for annoying the CFDT (whom they regard as an indispensable ally). President Macron, who campaigned for the reform in 2017, remains sphinx-like and uncharacteristically silent.
What then of the more militant unions? France, to its eternal difficulty, does not have one union federation or “TUC”. It has eight union federations of differing political flavours, from the Catholic CFTC to the Trotskyist SUD, via the ex-Communist CGT.
The CGT and SUD say the strikes are a battle against an “ultra-capitalist” plot to destroy the French state pension system for the sake of Macron’s chums in the private pension industry. Really? Listening to their members, it is difficult to know where sincere revolutionary fervour ends and self-serving hypocrisy begin.
Most of the actual striking in the last five weeks - involving just 0.1 per cent of the French workforce - has come from rail and Metro workers on privileged pension regimes subsidised by other taxpayers. Rail drivers for instance can retire at 52 on around €3,000 a month - double the average pension.
Under the concessions already made by the government, all rail drivers over 32 years old, three quarters of the total, will retain these benefits. Others will be compensated.
That is not enough, say the militant unions. The reform must be scrapped. Their aim is to defeat and damage Macron.
As the number of striking workers falls many train and Metro lines have reopened. Photo: AFP
The CGT and others are counting on a massive turn-out in the third big marching day, or nationwide “day of action”, tomorrow. They also hope that this week’s blockade of oil refineries will bring misery to motorists. They predict a new lease of life for the fading strikes on the railways and the Paris Metro.
None of these seem likely.
The CGT leader Philippe Martinez - whose heroic moustache makes him look like a Daily Mail identikit of a French union boss - forecast a post-New Year resurgence of the number of rail and Metro strikers. The strike rate has scarcely moved - up from 6.2 percent to 6.8 percent of the SNCF workforce, compared to over 30 percent in the early days of December.
The militant unions are also hoping that the government’s determination will be sapped by the renewed militancy of unlikely militants, from lawyers to nurses. A heavy scattering of people in various professions is joining the strike this week to try to defend their own separate, well-funded state pension regimes.
The turn-out for tomorrow’s marches will be important.
If the nationwide numbers are lower than the two “action days” before Christmas (800,000 on December 5th), the government may be emboldened to offer few concessions on Friday. On the other hand, a high turnout may spur Macron to order the PM to make a deal.
Paradoxically, the greatest beneficiary would then be the moderate CFDT, which is snubbing tomorrow’s marches (but may join another day of action on Saturday).
Here is a hazardous prediction: the dispute is on its way to a messy settlement; it may still be several weeks before France returns to normal.
What a way to run a country. Is it grève doctor? Oui, mais pas sérieux.
---30---
THE AUTHOR OF THE ABOVE IS CLEARLY NOT A MEMBER OF THE JOURNALISTS UNION
Why Canada's cannabis bubble burst
By Robin Levinson-KingBBC News, Toronto
Media captionLegalising Weed: Canada's Story
More than a year ago, Canada made recreational cannabis legal. So why are people still buying it on the black market?
When Canada legalised marijuana just over a year ago, it seemed like anyone who was anyone wanted to break into the market.
The media nicknamed the frenzy Canada's "green rush", as investors like Snoop Dogg and the former head of Toronto's police force clamoured to get a slice of the multi-billion-dollar-pie.
But like the gold rush of the 1850s, the lustre would soon fade, leaving prospectors in the dust.
"It didn't take a rocket scientist to recognise that these stocks were trading on fantasy and not on fundamentals," says Jonathan Rubin, CEO of New Leaf Data Services.
With decades of experience in the energy commodities markets, Mr Rubin saw the legalisation of cannabis in states like Colorado and California in the US (and later Canada) as a "once in a lifetime" opportunity to get in on the ground floor of a brand-new commodity.
"I had this epiphany that this is going to be a commodity just like any other commodity," he told the BBC.
What that meant was that like the price of wheat or pork, the wholesale price of cannabis was going to fluctuate with the market. So instead of investing in the cannabis itself, Mr Rubin started New Leaf to track the price of cannabis in states where it was legal. Investors and others in the industry pay for access to this data.
This business model has given Mr Rubin an interesting vantage point of how the market has unfolded.
In Canada, he says, the rollout has been disappointing.
"They haven't had the growth in sales and earnings that they've envisioned," he said. "I don't want to say it's a failure, but there's definitely frustrations."
Wholesale prices have dropped by about 17% since New Leaf started tracking data, which has kept profit margins tight for producers.
Sales have also slowed, according to Statistics Canada.
It's led to a rollercoaster ride for the stock prices of publicly traded cannabis companies.
In May 2018, Canadian producer Canopy Growth made headlines when it became the first marijuana company to list on the New York Stock Exchange.
Six months later, the stock price about doubled when it hit a high of $52.03 (£39.77) a share.
Now, the stock price is back to where it was, and their competitors have suffered similarly drastic losses.
Growing pains
There were early signs of trouble.
When cannabis became legal on 17 October 2018, there wasn't enough supply to meet the demand.
Long lines and backlogs of online orders plagued consumers. Producers weren't sure what strains would be most popular where, and kinks in the distribution chain were still being ironed out.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionTweed is one of the brands owned by Canopy Growth, one of the country's largest legal cannabis producers
"Trying to understand what strains we should grow, in what formats and what quantities - we did a great job but we didn't nail everything," says Canopy president Rade Kovacevic.
A patchwork of provincial laws have also made it harder to get products to consumers. While it's easy to buy cannabis in some places, in others brick-and-mortar shops are few and far between.
This is especially true in Ontario, Canada's most populous province. Red tape and a cap on the number of cannabis retail outlets have made rollout slow. Retail licenses were awarded by lottery, and the province held the number of licenses at 24, to serve a population of 14.5m.
Cannabis supply and demand
In kilograms
Source: Government of Canada
Where there was once a shortage, now producers have too much product, in part because of the lack of retail.
In September, Canadians bought 11,707 kilograms (25,809 lbs) of dried cannabis flower in Canada. But producers had a total of about 165,000 kilograms of finished and unfinished products ready for sale, or more than enough to meet the demand for an entire year.
Mr Kovacevic blames the lack of retail in Ontario for a lot of his company's woes.
"I think that lack of continuity of points of purchase across the country slowed the transition from the black market to the legal market," he said. "It was a challenge."
Black market still thriving
When the government announced its decision to legalise cannabis, one of its principal reasons was to reduce the black market.
But Statistics Canada estimates that about 75% of cannabis users still use illegal cannabis.
"There's a very strong resistance to the legal stores in the sense that a) it's more expensive and b) there aren't enough of them. They're not close to them, so they just deal with their local guy like they always have," says Robin Ellis, co-founder of Toronto retailer The Friendly Stranger and a long-time activist for cannabis legalisation.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionWith a population of about 3m, Toronto has only five legal cannabis stores
There were only five retail stores open in Toronto in 2019, and they were all concentrated in the downtown, which meant many people had to drive miles if they wanted to buy legal pot.
Legal cannabis is also far more expensive.
The retail price of legal cannabis has gone up, from C$9.82 ($7.49, £5.73) a gram in October 2018 to C$10.65 a gram in July, according to Statistics Canada.
Meanwhile, the illegal price has dropped from C$6.51 to C$5.93.
The case for cannabis
Perhaps one of the reasons why sales have been lacklustre for producers is that, contrary to some health experts' fears, legalising marijuana didn't turn everyone into a pothead.
Over the past year, the percentage of Canadians who used cannabis grew from 14% to about 17%.
Cannabis sales
In kilograms
Source: Statistics Canada
Use varies a lot by age, with people between 25-34 being the most likely to use cannabis, followed by those ages 15-24 (the legal age to use cannabis varies in Canada from 18-21). Older people are the least likely to have used cannabis, - but use has accelerated much faster for them than for other age groups, and seniors are the most likely to buy only legal weed, according to Statistics Canada.
Mr Ellis, a long-time cannabis activist, says it's important to remember that despite the industry's growing pains, legalisation has been largely a success.
"I don't think Canadians fully understand the magnitude of this change. We didn't just make something quickly available - it took 25 years of hard work to get legalisation ," he says.
Legalising marijuana has also opened up a whole new industry for the Canadian economy.
Sales of legal dried bud blossomed from about 4,405 kilograms in October 2018 to 11,707 kilograms in September 2019.
Things are looking brighter for the New Year, people in the industry say.
In December, the Ontario government announced that after a slow and fitful start, the province will open itself up to more cannabis retail. It will do away with the lottery system, the cap on the number of private stores and cancel some pre-qualification requirements.
It's welcome news to people who've been trying to get into the market.
"We're really looking forward," Mr Ellis says. His store, the Friendly Stranger, sells cannabis accessories, and he intends to open as many as 20 licensed retailers in the new year.
Producers will also be allowed to open up one storefront on site, similar to how some breweries can sell beer direct to consumers.
"If everything goes smoothly and they follow up, hopefully we'll see more of an equilibrium in terms of supply-demand balance," Mr Rubin says.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionEdibles will be legal in Canada by the New Year
More kinds of products will also be coming to the market soon. The government is legalising alternative cannabis products, like edibles and vapes. Those products are expected to hit shelves around Christmas.
Up until now, Health Canada has only permitted cannabis oil, dried flowers, seeds and plants to be sold to consumers.
Mr Rubin expects these new products to help retail sales grow by 30-40%. The formats are expected to be a hit, especially amongst people who've never tried cannabis before.
"There's going to be a lot of people out there who are going to want to try cannabis for the first time in a format that's not smoking or vaping," says Mr Ellis.
The new product lines are helping some producers attract investment. Constellation Brands, which makes Corona beer, owns a 38% stake in Canopy.
Mr Kovacevic, Canopy's president, says they will rollout THC-laced beverages by early 2020. These products are designed to have a precisely known, low-level dose of THC, which would produce a buzz equivalent to the effect of one beer. They will not contain alcohol.
The company will also start making THC-laced chocolates.
"I think it's a great opportunity," he says. "If you look at products like vapes and edibles, those are products that are ubiquitous in the black market, and Canadians will now have the opportunity to go to a legal store."
