Thursday, August 31, 2023

 

Digital Horizon: Proving the Value of Unmanned Naval Surface Vehicles

Capt. Michael Brasseur, then-commander of Task Force 59, briefs Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Dr. Colin Kahl in Bahrain, Nov. 2022 (USN)
Capt. Michael Brasseur, then-commander of Task Force 59, briefs Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Dr. Colin Kahl in Bahrain, Nov. 2022 (USN)

PUBLISHED AUG 29, 2023 6:05 PM BY CIMSEC

 

[By Capt. George Galdorisi]

The international community has been tremendously proactive in undertaking operations, exercises, experiments, and demonstration to accelerate the development and fielding of unmanned surface vehicles, reflecting the real importance of these systems to world navies. Much of this work has occurred in and around the Arabian Gulf under the auspices of Commander U.S. Fifth Fleet and Task Force 59.

These ambitious exercises throughout the course of 2022 provided a learning opportunity for all participating navies. These culminated in the capstone unmanned event, Exercise Digital Horizon, a three-week event in the Middle East focused on employing artificial intelligence and 15 different unmanned systems: 12 unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) and three unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

A key goal of Digital Horizon was to speed new technology integration across the 5th Fleet, and to seek cost-effective alternatives for Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) missions. As Carrington Malin described the importance of Digital Horizon:

“Despite the cutting-edge hardware in the Arabian Gulf, Digital Horizon is far more than a trial of new unmanned systems. This exercise is about data integration and the integration of command and control capabilities, where many different advanced technologies are being deployed together and experimented with for the first time.

The advanced technologies now available and the opportunities that they bring to enhance maritime security are many-fold, but these also drive an exponential increase in complexity for the military. Using the Arabian Gulf as the laboratory, Task Force 59 and its partners are pioneering ways to manage that complexity, whilst delivering next-level intelligence, incident prevention and response capabilities.”1

Digital Horizon brought together emerging unmanned technologies and combined them with data analytics and artificial intelligence in order to enhance regional maritime security and strengthen deterrence by applying leading-edge technology and experimentation.2 Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, U.S. 5th Fleet and Combined Maritime Forces introduced the exercise and highlighted its potential: “I am excited about the direction we are headed. By harnessing these new unmanned technologies and combining them with artificial intelligence, we will enhance regional maritime security and strengthen deterrence. This benefits everybody.”3

Click to expand. Graphic illustration depicting the unmanned systems that participated in Digital Horizon 2022. (U.S. Army graphic by Sgt. Brandon Murphy)

Captain Michael Brasseur, then-commodore of Task Force 59, emphasized the use of unmanned maritime vehicles to conduct intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions, including identifying objects in the water and spotting suspicious behavior.4 He noted: “We pushed beyond technological boundaries and discovered new capabilities for maritime domain awareness to enhance our ability to see above, on and below the water.”5

During Digital Horizon, Task Force 59 leveraged artificial intelligence to create an interface on one screen, also called a “single pane of glass,” displaying the relevant data from multiple unmanned systems for watchstanders in Task Force 59’s Robotics Operations Center (ROC). Reviewing what was accomplished during this event, Captain Brasseur marveled at the pace of innovation: “We are challenging our industry partners in one of the most difficult operational environments, and they are responding with enhanced capability, fast.”6

One of the features of Digital Horizon, and in line with the first word of the exercise, “Digital,” was the ability of one operator to command and control five unique drones, a capability long-sought by U.S. Navy officials.7 The Navy is acutely aware of the high cost of manpower and is dedicated to moving beyond the current “one UXS, multiple joysticks, multiple operators,” paradigm that has plagued UXS development for decades.

Digital Horizon was a unique exercise from the outset. Task Force 59 worked with the Department of Defense’s Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) in order to leverage that organization’s expertise as a technology accelerator. Additionally, given the U.S. Navy’s ambitious goals to rapidly test and subsequently acquire USVs to populate the Fleet, CTF-59 used a contractor-owned/contractor operated (COCO) model to bring a substantial number of unmanned systems to Digital Horizon, well beyond those already in the inventory. This approach sidestepped the often clunky DoD acquisition system while providing appropriate oversight during the exercise and gaining operational experience with new systems.

MANAMA, Bahrain (Nov. 19, 2022) Various unmanned systems sit on display in Manama, Bahrain, prior to exercise Digital Horizon 2022. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Brandon Murphy)

Another distinctive feature of Digital Horizon involved launching and recovering small UAVs from medium-size USVs. This lash-up leveraged the capabilities of both unmanned assets, enabling the long-endurance USVs to carry the shorter-endurance UAVs to the desired area of operations. This “operationalized” a CONOPS that emerged from the U.S. Navy laboratory community years ago.8

The results of Digital Horizon lived up to the initial hype. During a presentation at the 2023 Surface Navy Association Symposium, here is how Vice Admiral Cooper described what was accomplished during Digital Horizon:

“We are creating a distributed and integrated network of systems to establish a “digital ocean” in the Middle East, creating constant surveillance. This means every partner and every sensor, collecting new data, adding it to an intelligent synthesis of around-the-clock inputs, encompassing thousands of images, from seabed to space, from ships, unmanned systems, subsea sensors, satellites, buoys, and other persistent technologies.

No navy acting alone can protect against all the threats, the region is simply too big. We believe that the way to get after this is the two primary lines of effort: strengthen our partnerships and accelerate innovation…One of the results from the exercise was the ability to create a single operational picture so one operator can command and control multiple unmanned systems on one screen, a ‘Single Pane of Glass’ (SPOG)…Digital Horizon was a visible demonstration of the promise and the power of very rapid tech innovation.”9

The results of Digital Horizon could change the way the world’s navies conduct maritime safety and security. Having multiple unmanned systems conduct maritime surveillance, with the operations center then using big data, artificial intelligence and machine learning to amalgamate this sea of data into something that commanders can use to make real-time decisions, enables navies to “stretch” their crewed vessels and use them for more vital missions than merely conducting surveillance.

As one example of how Digital Horizon brought together COTS unmanned surface vehicles with COTS systems and sensors, the T-38 Devil Ray was equipped with multiple state-of-the-art COTS sensors to provide persistent surveillance. The T-38 provided AIS, full motion video from SeaFLIR-280HD and FLIR-M364C cameras, as well as the display of radar contacts on a chart via the onboard Furuno DRS4D-NXT Doppler radar. These were all streamed back to Task Force 59’s Robotics Operations Center via high bandwidth radios and SATCOM.

These exercises and initiatives are important if the Navy is to convince a skeptical Congress that its plans for unmanned systems are sound, and represent an important course change in the way the Navy intends to communicate with Congress, by “showing, not telling” what its unmanned systems can do.10 This approach is vital, for as long as Congress remains unconvinced regarding the efficacy of the unmanned systems the Navy wishes to procure; it is unlikely that funding will follow.11

Secretary of the Navy, Carlos Del Toro, explained this new “show, don’t tell,” philosophy built on an ongoing series of exercises, experiments and demonstrations, further indicating that he believes the Navy is “on the same page as Congress:”

“The Navy has a responsibility to be able to prove that the technology that Congress is going to invest in actually works and it meets what we need to address the threat. I think that’s the responsible thing to do…I don’t see it as a fight between Congress and the Department of Navy. I think we’re aligned in our thinking about what has to be done.”12

Indeed, in remarks at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Secretary Del Toro said the Navy intends to stand up additional unmanned task forces around the globe modeled after what Task Force 59 accomplished during Digital Horizon, noting:

“We’ve demonstrated with Task Force 59 how much more we can do with these unmanned vehicles—as long as they’re closely integrated together in a [command and control] node that, you know, connects to our manned surface vehicles. And there’s been a lot of experimentation; it’s going to continue aggressively. And we’re going to start translating that to other regions of the world as well. That will include the establishment of formal task forces that will fall under some of the Navy’s other numbered fleets.”13

Secretary of the Navy Del Toro continued this drumbeat during the U.S. Naval Institute/AFCEA “West” Symposium in February 2023. In a keynote address describing the Navy’s progress and intentions regarding integrating unmanned systems into the Fleet, he emphasized the progress that CTF-59 had made, especially in the area of successfully integrating unmanned systems and artificial intelligence during Digital Horizon.14

A Marine Advanced Robotics WAM-V unmanned surface vessel operates in the Arabian Gulf, Nov. 29, during Digital Horizon 2022. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Brandon Murphy)

Importantly, the U.S. Navy has now created the infrastructure to accelerate the testing and evaluation of unmanned surface vehicles. In 2019, the Navy stood up Surface Development Squadron One to provide stewardship for unmanned experimentation and manned-unmanned teaming.15 In 2022, seeking to put additional emphasis on unmanned maritime vehicles, the Navy established Unmanned Surface Vessel Division One (USVDIV-1), under the command of Commander Jeremiah Daley.16

This new division oversees medium and large unmanned surface vessels out of Port Hueneme Naval Base in Ventura County.17 Unmanned Surface Vessel Division One is engaged with the Fleet to move the unmanned surface vessels further west and exercise autonomy, payloads, and hull, mechanical and electrical (HM&E) systems to ensure that future programs of record (LUSV and MUSV) are successful from inception, and that they provide lethality and combat effectiveness for future naval and joint forces.

Digital Horizon presages a new paradigm in the way navies will think about uncrewed assets, no longer as “vehicles” but rather as “systems” that are nodes in a web of assets delivering far greater capability than the sum of the parts. World navies will conduct ambitious unmanned exercises, experiments and demonstrations throughout 2023 and beyond, and the lessons learned from Digital Horizon will no doubt inform those efforts.

Captain George Galdorisi (USN – retired) is a career naval aviator whose thirty years of active duty service included four command tours and five years as a carrier strike group chief of staff. He began his writing career in 1978 with an article in U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings. He is the author of 15 books, including four New York Times best-sellers. The views presented are those of the author, and do not reflect the views of the Department of the Navy or the Department of Defense.

This article appears courtesy of CIMSEC and may be found in its original form here.

References

1. Carrington Malin, “A Testbed for Naval Innovation,” Middle East AI News, December 1, 2022.

2. Aaron-Matthew Lariosa, “US Navy Highlights TF 59 Contributions to Fleet’s Unmanned Vision,” Naval News, January 23, 2023.

3. “U.S. Launches New Unmanned & AI Systems Integration Event,” U.S. Naval Forces Central Command Public Affairs, November 23, 2022, accessed at: https://www.cusnc.navy.mil/Media/News/Display/Article/3226901/us-launches-new-unmanned-ai-systems-integration-event/.

4. J.P. Lawrence, “Navy’s ‘Influx’ of Aquatic and Aerial Drones Tested in the Middle East,” Stars and Stripes, December 1, 2022.

5. “Digital Horizon Wraps Up: Task Force 59 Perspective, Second Line of Defense, December 22, 2022.

6. Geoff Ziezulewicz, “New in 2023: Here Comes the First-Ever Surface Drone Fleet,” Navy Times, January 3, 2023.

7. Justin Katz, “Accenture Demos Data Vis, C2 for Multiple USVs During Navy’s Digital Horizons Exercise,” Breaking Defense, December 16, 2022.

8. Vladimir Djapic et al, “Heterogeneous Autonomous Mobile Maritime Expeditionary Robots and Maritime Information Dominance,” Naval Engineers Journal, December 2014.

9. Audrey Decker, “5th Fleet Commander Details ‘Digital Ocean’ After TF-59 Reaches FOC,” Inside the Navy, January 16, 2023.

10. See, for example, George Galdorisi, “Catch a Wave: Testing Unmanned Surface Vehicles Is Becoming an International Endeavour,” Surface SITREP, Winter 2022.

11. “Navy Failing to Make ‘Critical Pivot’ In Unmanned Investment,” Inside the Navy, October 10, 2022.

12. Justin Katz, “Show, Don’t Tell: Navy Changes Strategy to Sell Unmanned Systems to Skeptical Congress,” Breaking Defense, March 10, 2022.

13. Jon Harper, “Navy to Establish Additional Unmanned Task Forces Inspired by Task Force 59,” Defense Scoop, December 4, 2022.

14. Remarks by the Honorable Carlos Del Toro, Secretary of the Navy, at the U.S. Naval Institute/AFCEA “West” Symposium, February 16, 2023.

15. Meagan Eckstein, “Navy Stands Up Surface Development Squadron for DDG-1000, Unmanned Experimentation,” USNI News, May 22, 2019.

16. “Navy to Stand Up New USV Command This Summer,” Inside the Navy, January 13, 2022.

17. Joshua Emerson Smith and Andrew Dyer, “Navy Ramps Up Efforts on Unmanned Vessels,” San Diego Union Tribune, May 16, 2022, and Diana Stancy Correll, “Navy Creates Unmanned Surface Vessel Division to Expedite Integration of Unmanned Systems,” Navy Times, May 16, 2022.

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

 

As Japan Begins Releasing Water From Fukushima, Should We be Concerned?

Tank farm for contaminated water at the Fukushima nuclear power plant (Tepco)
Tank farm for contaminated water at the Fukushima nuclear power plant (Tepco)

PUBLISHED AUG 27, 2023 3:46 PM BY EDMOND SANGANYADO

 

Japan’s decision to release water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant has been greeted with horror by the local fishing industry as well as China and several Pacific Island states. China – which together with Hong Kong imports more than US$1.1 billion of seafood from Japan every year – has slapped a ban on all seafood imports from Japan, citing health concerns.

Tokyo has asked for the ban to be lifted immediately. The Japanese prime minister, Fumio Kishida, told reporters on Thursday: “We strongly encourage discussion among experts based on scientific grounds.” Japan has previously criticised China for spreading “scientifically unfounded claims”.

Japan remains steadfast in its assurance that the water is safe. The discharge process, which will take 30 years, was approved by the International Atomic Energy Agency – the intergovernmental organisation that develops safety standards for managing radioactive waste. And seawater samples taken following the water’s release showed radioactivity levels more than seven times lower than the drinking water limit set by the World Health Organization.

Since the world’s highest authority on radioactive waste backs Japan’s plan, should we also dismiss the concerns raised by Pacific nations and local fishermen as merely irrational fear of radioactive materials?

Contaminated water

In 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake off the north-eastern coast of Japan’s main island, Honshu, triggered a tsunami that devastated many coastal areas of the country. Tsunami waves knocked out the Fukushima nuclear power plant’s backup electricity supply and caused meltdowns in three of its reactors. The event is regarded as one of the worst nuclear accidents in history.

Since the accident, water has been used to cool the damaged reactors. But, as the reactor core contains numerous radioactive elements, including ruthenium, uranium, plutonium, strontium, caesium and tritium, the cooling water has become contaminated.

The tainted water is stored in more than 1,000 steel tanks at the power plant. It has been treated to remove most of the radioactive contaminants – but traces of the radioactive isotope tritium remain.

Removing tritium from the water is challenging. Tritium is a radioactive form of hydrogen that forms water molecules with properties similar to regular water.

It does decay over time to form helium (which is less harmful). But tritium has a half-life of slightly over 12 years.

This is relatively quick in comparison to other radioactive contaminants. But it will still take around 100 years for the radioactivity of the tritium within the tanks at Fukushima to drop below 1%.

To safely store the water that will continue to be contaminated over that time (some 100 tonnes of water each day), the plant’s operators will need to construct an additional 2,700 storage tanks. This may be impractical – storage space at Fukushima is fast running out.

Should we be concerned?

Studies have, in the past, explored the health effects of tritium exposure. However, much of this research has focused on organisms such as zebrafish and marine mussels. Research from France, for example, found that tritium – in the form of titrated water – led to DNA damage, altered muscle tissue and changed movement patterns in zebrafish larvae.

Interestingly, the zebrafish were exposed to tritium concentrations similar to those estimated to be in the storage tanks at Fukushima. But the tritium at Fukushima will be significantly diluted before its release, reaching levels almost a million times lower than those that caused health issues in zebrafish larvae.

Marine organisms within the discharge zone will experience consistent exposure to this low concentration over the next 30 years. We cannot definitively rule out potential repercussions from this on marine life. And, importantly, the findings from these studies cannot be universally applied to all animals.

It’s worth noting, however, that organisms can eliminate half of the tritium in their bodies through biological processes in less than two weeks (known as the biological half-life).

But that’s not everything

In theory, it’s also possible that the potential health issues linked to tritium could worsen due to the presence of other chemical contaminants. In China, researchers discovered that exposing zebrafish larvae to both tritium and genistein – a naturally occurring compound produced by some plants that is commonly found in water – led to reduced survival and hatching rates.

The amount of tritium used in this study was over 3,000 times less than that used in the French study. But it still exceeded the levels being discharged into the Pacific Ocean from Fukushima by almost 250 times.

Yet it’s possible that other chemical contaminants present in the ocean near Japan or within the storage tanks could interact with tritium in a similar way, potentially offsetting the benefits of dilution.

Given that we lack precise knowledge of the exact chemical pollutants present in Fukushima’s water storage tanks and their potential combined effects with tritium, it could be unwise to casually brush aside the very real concerns raised by Pacific nations and fishermen.

Edmond Sanganyado is an Assistant Professor in Environmental Forensics at Northumbria University, Newcastle.

This article appears courtesy of The Conversation and may be found in its original form here

Australia's Antarctic Research Vessel Can't Reach its Own Fuel Pier
Nuyina in DP mode, rotating about her own axis without changing position
 (Australia Antarctic Science)

PUBLISHED AUG 27, 2023 11:20 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

The harbormaster at the port of Hobart, Tasmania has determined that the Antarctic research vessel Nuyina is too beamy, too prone to drift in a turn, and too affected by windage to safely pass under the Tasman Bridge. This leaves Nuyina without access to her local fueling pier, even though it is just two miles north of her home base.

Though the vessel is capable of walking a few meters at a time in DP mode, using her tunnel thrusters to control course and heading, the harbormaster has determined that the Nuyina is not able to safely make the outbound journey under the bridge because the ship would drift too much in a dynamic turn. There is a relatively sharp bend approaching the navigation span when outbound. After running the scenario in a simulator, the concern is that Nuyina might not be able to line up onto the span after making the turn.

“The risk is always a loss of control,” the harbormaster told Australian outlet ABC. “The vessel has a significant amount of drift and side slip. The vessel is perfectly suited for straight line work, perfectly suited for ice operations. It is a very powerful ship. But when you put that vessel into a dynamic turn, it slides.”

He noted that the Nuyina is about 30 feet wider than originally specified. The vessel also has the most sail area of any ship that has ever requested permission to pass, and wind was a concern.

Lacking viable barge or truck options to bring the bunkers to Nuyina, the crew will have to bring Nuyina all the way to Burnie for fuel - adding an extra 300 nautical miles each way onto science voyages to Antarctica.

There is a historical precedent behind the harbormaster's caution. In 1975, the bulker Lake Illawarra struck the Tasman Bridge and destroyed two pylons. A 400-foot section of the concrete bridge deck fell on the ship, sinking it and killing seven crewmembers. The wreck and the original bridge deck remain on the bottom of the channel as a warning.

Nuyina is a DP2-classed research vessel with a combined diesel-electric and direct-drive diesel (CODLAD) propulsion arrangement. This complex, redundant system has little resemblance to a merchant vessel's single two-stroke engine: Nuyina's powerplant couples two main engines and four auxiliary generators to two shafts, each with variable-pitch propellers. Six tunnel thrusters (three forward and three aft) provide for stationkeeping in conditions up to sea state 4.

The bridge holdup is the latest in a string of setbacks for Nuyina. The futuristic, $500 million vessel suffered an electrical fault on her delivery voyage to Hobart in October 2021. Two months later, her maiden scientific voyage was delayed after issues were detected in the alarm and monitoring system software. In April 2022, she headed for Singapore for planned maintenance and repairs to address issues with propulsion system couplings. A shortage of spare parts meant she missed the bulk of the 2022-2023 Antarctic season.



 

Oil and gas companies have outsized economic impact on Alaska, says industry study


A network of pipelines, seen on Aug. 23, 2018, snakes through a portion of the Greater Prudhoe Bay Unit on Alaska’s North Slope. The oil and gas industry has more impact on Alaska’s economy than any other industry, a new study finds. (Photo by Yereth Rosen/Alaska Beacon)

The oil industry packs a bigger economic punch than any other industry in Alaska, according to study findings presented on Wednesday at an industry conference in Anchorage.

The study, by the McKinley Research Group and commissioned by the Alaska Oil and Gas Association, found that oil and gas employment, spending, tax revenues and spinoff effects supported 16% of the state’s jobs in 2022.

For each direct oil and gas company job, industry activity supported 15 other jobs, and each dollar in oil and gas industry wages supported $4 in other Alaska wages, according to the report, which was presented at the Alaska Oil and Gas Association’s annual conference.

“This is a significant multiplier. This is the highest multiplier in the state,” Katie Berry, McKinley’s director of economics and research, said in her presentation at the conference. “And that comes about because the oil and gas industry has such a high level of spending and is so connected to their vendors and is so connected to the state of Alaska.”

The multiplier to which Berry referred is an economic term that accounts for direct employment and spending, indirect spending and induced spending, which includes industry workers’ purchases in the larger economy.

“Every time somebody that works at an oil and gas company goes to the dentist or pays for child care or stops by Costco, they’re supporting jobs and wages here in Alaska,” Berry said.

The 15 primary oil and gas companies operating in the state employed 4,105 workers, 83% of whom were Alaska residents, and paid $1.1 billion in wages in 2022, Berry said in her presentation. The companies that year paid $4.6 billion for goods and services in Alaska and contributed $4.5 billion in total tax and royalty payments, $4.1 billion of which went to the state government, she said.

That $4.1 billion amounted to 47% of state revenue in the 12 months that ended on June 30, 2022, she said.

Factoring in all multipliers, the industry supported 69,250 jobs and was the source of $5.9 billion in wages in 2022, Berry said.

The industry’s big economic impact will continue in coming years, Berry said in her presentation.

The oil and gas companies collectively plan to spend $14 billion on new fields and investments in existing fields through 2028, a notable sum, she said.

“We feel compelled to remind you that these companies are operating in a global environment in which they’re competing to bring capital to the projects in Alaska. So to have this level of investment in the state is very significant,” she said.

Direct construction and drilling employment from that investment is expected to total 1,600 jobs with $1 billion in wages, Berry said. Factoring in the multiplier effect, the investment is expected to support 2,500 to 2,900 workers annually during the construction phase, she said.

Direct employment during the production phase of those new projects is expected to total 300 jobs and $65 million in wages by 2028, according to the findings. With all multiplier factors considered, the cumulative total from the new development during the production phase is expected to be about 2,700 new jobs and $215 million in wages through 2028, according to the findings.

The study is based on state and company data, Bery said.

The new findings were largely similar to findings in a McKinley Research report released in early 2020 that was also commissioned by the Alaska Oil and Gas Association findings. At the time, the company went by a different name: the McDowell Group.

That 2020 study, which focused on impacts in 2018, found a somewhat higher level of direct oil and gas company employment: 4,906, of which 84% were Alaska residents. Including all multipliers, the oil and gas industry supported 77,600 jobs in Alaska in 2018, about a quarter of all wage and salary jobs in the state, according to that study.

The Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development’s annual employment forecast, issued in January, noted that North Slope oil employment hit a 16-year low in 2021 but is poised to increase this year because of investments in new projects.


Alaska Beacon is part of States Newsroom, a network of news bureaus supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Alaska Beacon maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Andrew Kitchenman for questions: info@alaskabeacon.com. Follow Alaska Beacon on Facebook and Twitter.

You can read the original here

Arabs and Jews in the Ottoman Palestine: Two Worlds Collide

 


Palestine 1936: The Great Revolt and the Roots of the Middle East Conflict

by Oren Kessler
Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield, 2023. 317 pp. $26.95.

Reviewed by Daniel Pipes
Middle East Forum

Middle East Quarterly
Fall 2023





Kessler, a think tanker and journalist writing his first book, has taken up a topic that ought to be well studied but, as he notes, is not. His impressive immersion in the sources and his lively writing bring the "Great Arab Revolt" of 1936-39 to life and show its continued significance. It was then, he argues, and not in 1948, that Palestine's Jews consolidated the demographic, geographic, and political basis of their state-to-be. And it was then that portentous words like "partition" and "Jewish state" first appeared on the international diplomatic agenda.

His history details growing Palestinian-Zionist disputes, tensions, and violence that build and build until they reach a climax with the London conference of early 1939. At that point, awareness of a looming conflict with Germany forced the pro-Zionist Malcolm MacDonald, British secretary of state for the colonies, effectively to walk back the Balfour Declaration's promises of a "national home for the Jewish people." With great fairness, Kessler dismisses as unpersuasive David Ben-Gurion's claim that, if not for that reversal, the six million Jews in Europe would not have been exterminated. Most of them would have been alive in Palestine.

But he does endorse Golda Meir's claim that "hundreds of thousands of Jews—perhaps many more" could have been saved.

At the same time, Kessler sympathizes with MacDonald's quandary. The United Kingdom could not afford the general enmity of Arabs and Muslims that Jewish immigration to Palestine would have occasioned:

If Britain lost and Hitler won, there would be no National Home. The Jews would be killed or expelled from Palestine, just as they had been 2,000 years earlier.

It is hard to argue with this analysis.

Returning to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Kessler convincingly shows that the 1936-39 revolt strengthened the Zionists and weakened the Palestinians, to the point that the latter had effectively already lost the war [of 1948-49], and with it most of the country, a decade in advance.

Kessler has mastered the facts of 1936-39, but his survey of later years gets some things wrong, for example, overlooking the Palestinians' sack of Musa Alami's Arab Development Society and credulously repeating the calumny that Zionists "deliberately executed ... significant numbers of noncombatants, including women and children," at Deir Yassin. Such errors aside, it is a great book.

Decades after Israel’s Osirak strike, Iraq says it’s seeking civilian nuclear program

Military spokesman confirms high-level meeting on developing peaceful program to diversify energy resources for oil-rich country
Today, 

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, center, leads a meeting in Baghdad on August 30, 2023, in a handout photo shared on the premier's X account. (Iraq Prime Minister's spokesperson)

Iraq’s government is pursuing a civilian nuclear program, the country’s military spokesman said, a potentially fraught development some four decades after a daring Israeli raid destroyed Baghdad’s reactor at Osirak.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani discussed the development of a peaceful nuclear program during a meeting of the Ministerial Council for National Security on Wednesday, according to Maj. Gen. Yehia Rasool.

The reactor would be used to produce electricity, with the oil-rich state looking to reduce its dependence on polluting fossil fuels, Rasool said on X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter.

The sides discussed “initiating the building of a nuclear reactor limited to peaceful purposes,” he said.

The meeting was attended by other ministers, as well as a technical committee on nuclear energy, Rasool said.

Iraq has for years spoken about attempting to restart its nuclear program, but such discussions have rarely risen beyond low-level talks, stymied by endemic instability and vociferous Israeli and international opposition to such a move without intense oversight.

Electricity is a sensitive political issue in Iraq as despite the country’s huge oil reserves, its dilapidated power grid is incapable of meeting peak demand and Iraqis endure hours-long outages every summer.

Muqtada Haider turns the switches to transfer electricity to private homes in Baghdad, Iraq, Friday, Sept. 10, 2021. (AP/Hadi Mizban)

Ravaged by decades of conflict and international sanctions, the petrostate relies on Iranian gas imports for a third of its energy needs. It is also beset by rampant corruption.

To reduce its dependence on Iranian gas, Baghdad had been exploring several possibilities, including imports from Gulf countries such as Qatar, as well as recovering flared gas from oilfields.

In 1981, Israel partially destroyed an under-construction reactor at Osirak south of Baghdad, which was ostensibly being developed for peaceful purposes but was feared to be secretly intended to build an atomic weapon.

In 2003, American troops invaded the country on false intelligence that the country was hiding weapons of mass destruction, including alleged nuclear arms.

Israel is the only country in the Middle East with nuclear weapons, according to foreign reports, and the international community has expressed fears that a nuclear arms race could break out in the region should countries get the go-ahead to start enrichment.

Iranian attempts to enrich uranium, also claimed to be peaceful, have been met with punishing sanctions and threats of Israeli or US attack.

Saudi Arabia has recently stepped up pressure for an American okay for its own civilian nuclear program, reportedly dangling this as a prerequisite for normalization with Israel.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reportedly asked White House National Security Council Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk for clarifications regarding the putative Saudi program during their meeting in New York this week.

Earlier this month, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer said in an interview that Israel does not necessarily have a problem with a Saudi civilian nuclear program. Netanyahu’s office later issued a statement downplaying the remark, although a source close to the premier was quoted by Hebrew media reiterating that Israel “doesn’t rule out” the idea of Riyadh enriching uranium.


Greenpeace activists stand in front of a uranium oxide mixing vat outside the grounds of the Tuwaitha nuclear facility at Osirak, Iraq, June 24, 2003. (CRIS BOURONCLE / AFP)

“You have countries in the region that can have civilian nuclear power. That’s a different story than a nuclear weapons program,” Dermer said in an interview with PBS. Asked whether Israel would agree to Saudi Arabia having “civil nuclear capacity, including enrichment” in exchange for normalization, Dermer responded: “Like so many things, the devil is in the details, and we’re going to have to look at what ultimately is agreed upon.”

Iraq’s leader Sudani came to power last year via a coalition of Iranian-backed parties and is seen as close to Iran, although he has also attempted to build ties with the United States and Turkey.

Zman Yisrael writer Yaron Friedman and agencies contributed to this report.
The Taliban say they have signed mining contracts worth billions of dollars in Afghanistan

By Associated Press
August 31, 2023,

KABUL, Afghanistan -- Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban government said it signed seven mining contracts Thursday amounting to $6.5 billion in investment, in the biggest such round of deals since seizing power two years ago.


The seven contracts are with locally based companies, many of whom have foreign partners in countries including China, Iran, and Turkey. They include the extraction and processing of iron ore, lead, zinc and gold in four provinces: Herat, Ghor, Logar and Takhar.

A statement on the contracts from Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Abdul Ghani Baradar Akhund gave few details, but said they would create thousands of jobs and significantly improve the economic situation of the country.

Any figures given for the deals could be misleading unless they lead to fully realized mining operations on the ground, which could take years, said Javed Noorani, an expert in Afghanistan’s mining sector.

“The Taliban know Afghanistan has minerals and this is cash, but it’s not easy cash,” Noorani told The Associated Press. “Mineral mining is an incredibly complicated operation. It requires a proper framework, strategies, institutions and infrastructure. You open up the sector slowly and start with low-hanging fruit.”


Nobody from the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum was available to provide further information on the contracts or the companies. The AP contacted the Kabul-based Sahil Middle East Mining & Logistics Ltd, which signed an iron ore deal according to the official statement, but received no immediate response.

The Taliban have been courting foreign investment to revitalize the economy since their takeover.

Nearly 80% of the previous, Western-backed Afghan government’s budget came from the international community. That money, now largely cut off, financed hospitals, schools, factories and government ministries.

The Taliban, like previous administrations in Afghanistan, are pinning their hopes on the country’s vast and untapped mineral resources to line the nation’s coffers. Logar province is believed to hold the world’s largest copper deposit.
Ukraine war: Australian-made cardboard drones used to attack Russian airfield show how innovation is key to modern warfare

THE CONVERSATION
Published: August 31, 2023 
Ukraine has reportedly used cardboard drones built from flatpack kits to attack a Russian airfield. 
Sypaq

Innovative design choices can have a massive impact in the theatre of war, so it is important to understand the principles behind their development. Recent use of low-cost cardboard drones by Ukraine, supplied by Australia, to attack targets in Russia is a good example of how this can work.

Australia has been supplying Ukraine with 100 of the drones per month from March this year as part of an aid package deal worth an estimated £15.7 million, following an agreement struck in July 2021, according to the Australian Army Defence Innovation Hub.

Emerging technologies tend to override current technologies, and in turn, this generates competitive counter-technologies. This circular relationship driven by innovation is often critical in warfare as it can provide key technological advances.

Drone technology was originally developed for military use. It was then seen to offer opportunities in the civilian sphere for logistics, delivery and disaster relief. This then in turn has offered new innovations that can translate to military applications.

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Conflicts in the future will be particularly shaped by drones, which will have implications for international relations, security and defence.

The Australian firm Sypaq, an engineering and solutions company founded in 1992, created the Corvo Precision Payload Delivery System (PPDS) for use in military, law enforcement, border security and emergency services, as well as food security, asset inspection and search and rescue.

Ukrainian forces reportedly used the PDDS cardboard drones in an attack on an airfield in Kursk Oblast in western Russia on August 27. The attack damaged a Mig-29 and four Su-30 fighter jets, two Pantsir anti-aircraft missile launchers, gun systems, and an S-300 air surface-to-air missile defence system.

Design principles

The design principles behind the success of the drones revolve around several factors including the production cost, airframe material, weight, payload, range, deployment and ease of use. Other considerations include the reliability of the operating software and the ability to fly the drone in various weather conditions.

Seven Network news report on SYPAQ’s cardboard drones.


Generally, small drones offer high-resolution imagery for reconnaissance in a rapidly changing theatre of war. The Corvo drone has a high-resolution camera that provides images covering a large area, transmitting footage back to its user in real time.

The importance of real-time mapping is critical in modern agile armed forces’ command and control as this can direct ground forces, heavy weapons and artillery.

In some cases, the design of small drones is concentrated on adapting the payloads to carry different types of munitions, as seen in the attack in Kursk.

The cardboard drones can carry 5kg of weight, have a wingspan of two metres and a range of 120km at a reported cost of US$3,500 (£2,750). Waxed cardboard is an ideal material as it offers weather resistance, flat-pack transportation (measuring 510mm by 760mm) and, importantly, a lightweight airframe, which enables a longer flight range and a high cruise speed of 60km/h.

Fixed-wing drones also offer longer ranges than rotor-based drones as the wings generate the lift and the airframe has less drag, so they are more energy efficient. They can also fly at higher altitudes. The drones can be launched from a simple catapult or by hand and so can be rapidly deployed.

Low-tech material, hi-tech thinking

Radar involves the transmission of electromagnetic waves, and these are reflected off any object back to a receiving antenna. Cardboard is generally harder to detect by radar – but its components, such as the battery, can be detected.

But the Corvo drone is likely to have a small signature. Radar-absorbing materials are needed to have full stealth properties. These polymers have various absorbing qualities to avoid radar detection.

Another design principle is the swarming capability of the drone. Swarms of drones can overpower air defence systems through sheer volume and or can be used as decoys in counterintelligence operations.

Swarms are highly reliant on the development of artificial intelligence, which is still an embryonic research area. But a recent drone race at ETH University in Zurich, in which AI-piloted drone beat drones controlled by world-champion drone racers, highlighted this potential.

All of these design principles and innovations have and are continuing to transform warfare and theatre operations. It is likely that small drones at low cost are likely to have further mission success in the future.

Author
Paul Cureton
Senior Lecturer in Design (People, Places, Products), Lancaster University