U.S. Solar Capacity Additions To Hit A Record High In 2023

By Charles Kennedy - Sep 07, 2023

The solar industry in the United States expects to install a record-high 32 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity this year, with additions surging by 52% from 2022, when policy-driven constraints held back projects, the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie said in their latest quarterly report on Thursday.

The challenges with supply chains due to the COVID-related chaos and restrictive trade policies have started to fade, while the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is beginning to yield results, the U.S. Solar Market Insight Q3 2023 report found.

Total operating solar capacity in the U.S. is expected to rise from 153 GW today to 375 GW by 2028, Wood Mackenzie predicts.

In the second quarter of 2023, the U.S. solar industry installed 5.6 gigawatts-direct current (GWdc) of capacity, up by 20% year-over-year and an 8% decrease from the first quarter of 2023, the report showed.

In Q1 2023, U.S. solar system installations surged by 47% on the year.

This year, volumes are set to grow year-over-year, reversing the contraction in 2022, WoodMac and SEIA said in today’s report.

Early this year, the 2022 year-in-review report by WoodMac and SEIA said that the U.S. solar market is expected to recover this year from the policy-driven supply constraints that weighed on the sector in 2022.

Last year, new solar capacity additions in the United States fell by 16% from 2021 for a total of 20.2 GW. The decline in 2022 installations was primarily driven by supply chain uncertainties after the U.S. launched an investigation into whether U.S. imports of panels completed in four Southeast Asian countries - using parts and components from China - are circumventing the antidumping duty and countervailing duty orders on solar cells and modules from China. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has also detained solar equipment from China over new legislation against forced labor, which further stifled U.S. industry growth in 2022.

With the IRA provisions and supply-chain challenges now starting to abate, the solar market will return to growth this year, with additions expected at a record 32 GW.

“Announcements for domestic module manufacturing have exploded, promising more stable solar module supply in the future,” said Michelle Davis, Head of Global Solar at Wood Mackenzie.

 

Marathon Shuts Gasoline Unit At Texas Refinery After Fire

By Charles Kennedy - Sep 08, 2023

Marathon Petroleum shut the gasoline-making unit of its huge Galveston Bay refinery in Texas, the fourth-largest in the U.S. by capacity, after a fire broke out on Thursday night, sources with knowledge of the situation told Reuters.

Marathon Petroleum’s Galveston Bay refinery in Texas City, Texas, has a total crude processing capacity of 593,000 barrels per calendar day (bpcd). The refinery can process a wide variety of crude oils into gasoline, distillates, natural gas liquids and petrochemicals, heavy fuel oil, and propane.

The fire broke out in the fluidic catalytic cracker (FCC) which produces gasoline and has a capacity of 140,000 bpd. The fire erupted in the regenerator of the FCC, Reuters’ sources said, adding that there were no injuries reported after the incident.  

Earlier this year, a worker at Marathon Petroleum died and two others were taken to hospital with injuries after a fire broke out in the same refinery.

The shutdown of a gasoline unit at one of the largest U.S. refineries comes at the end of the summer driving season.

However, gasoline prices are expected to spike in the coming days, according to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

U.S. gasoline prices are headed higher in the nation’s Corn Belt, and could rise by as much as $1 per gallon at some gas stations, De Haan said on Thursday.

The huge spike in that single area could send the national average a few cents higher, De Haan added—and pump prices have already hit the highest seasonal level in more than a decade.

Strong demand and a series of refinery outages have contributed to the recent rise in gasoline prices, while a tightening global oil market has also been pushing crude oil prices up.

The current average price for a gallon of gasoline in the United States is $3.808, up from $3.751 at the same time last year, according to AAA data from early on Friday.    

WAIT,WHAT?!

Russia Ships First Oil To Brazil

Brazil has aspirations to become the world’s fourth-largest oil producer.

By Julianne Geiger - Sep 08, 2023

Russia—after suffering Western oil embargos and price caps on its oil and oil products, has shipped its first crude oil cargo to Brazil in its quest to find more outlets for its fossil fuels.

The Aframax tanker Stratos Aurora is now less than 500 miles off the shore of Brazil, according to Bloomberg ship tracking data, carrying 650,000 barrels of Varandey crude oil from the Murmansk port.

Russian oil hasn’t been shipped to Brazil since 2016, but sanctions on Russian crude oil, as well as the price cap, have made it difficult for the country to find outlets. 

India has been the top buyer of Russia’s Urals grade for months, even as the discount for Russian crude to Brent shrunk to just $5 per barrel or less. Russia’s September loadings bound for India are expected to be less, as Indian refiners now claim the discounts simply aren’t worth the high volumes they’ve been taking. Previously, India was getting a $30 per barrel discount. Russia has counted on India—and to a significant but lesser extent, China—to soak up most of the excess crude oil it is no longer shipping to countries abiding by the price caps and embargos following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Brazil is part of the BRICs alliance, which also includes India and China—a group of emerging market countries hoping to strengthen ties and cooperate regarding trade and economic activities.

Varandey is a light, sweet, crude blend, different from the grades that have been mostly going to India and China.

Brazil is a major oil producer and holds large pre-salt reserves, and has aspirations to become the world’s fourth-largest oil producer. It currently pumps an average of 3.1 million bpd.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

 

Germany Passes Modified Fossil-Fuel Heating Law

By Julianne Geiger - Sep 08, 2023

Germany’s lower house of parliament managed to pass a controversial bill that would ban fossil-fuel heating—but the end result was a watered-down version of the bill that will interfere with the country’s ability to meet the industry’s 2030 climate goals, according to Germany’s economy ministry.

Germany has a goal of being climate neutral by 2045, and the bill is considered instrumental in reaching that goal. Included in the bill are provisions that require certain heating systems—those installed in new developments in areas relying on municipal heating—to run on at least 65% renewable energy starting next year. Property owners of existing buildings will have until 2028 to implement the changes, and gas boilers will still be allowed if they are of the type that can be later converted to hydrogen. 

The pushback against the original bill was mainly due to fears that the measures would come with high costs.

The bill passed 399 in favor of the fossil fuel heating ban and 275 against.

The bill now includes the caveat that if a boiler exchange is combined with other renovations, the government will subsidize the cost of the new heating system, providing as much as $96,404 per year. The bill originally called for subsidies that were two-thirds of that. The money for the subsidies will come from its Climate and Transformation Fund.

But not everyone is satisfied with the watered down version, which some environmental groups have argued is now ineffective.

Germany admitted that this version of the bill doesn’t get Germany to its 2030 goal like the previous version did, which called for the green switch earlier than the more palatable version that passed.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

 

Mercedes And BMW Unleash New EVs For Chinese Market

By ZeroHedge - Sep 08, 2023

Both Mercedes and BMW have their sights set on growth in China and taking down the industry leader, Tesla, new reports revealed this week.

Mercedes is going to try and count on a range boost to beat out Tesla's Model 3. The company's near-production concept of its CLA sedan has 466 miles of range on a single charge, Bloomberg reported this week. 

It's said to be able to add 400km of range in just a 15 minute charge. 

Mercedes Chief Technology Officer Markus Schäfer commented last weekend: “We’re taking it to the next level. This car is extremely important for innovation reasons and to push the limits for what we can do with a series car.”

The company is dealing with "disappointing sales" in China, where it is trying to keep up with both domestic auto manufacturers and lower priced Tesla vehicles. 

Mercedes Chief Executive Officer Ola Källenius has said he thinks the "rapid growth" in the industry is over and that it's time to focus on quality, stating: “After 30, 40 years of an economic wonder, they’re reaching a level of maturity where you’re dealing with structural issues. We have to take a little bit of a cautious stance on that and see how things develop, and not expect rapid growth as far as the economy is concerned in the short term.”

For this reason, he believes Mercedes will be able to sidestep the price war currently taking place in EVs. 

BMW is also hoping its new vehicles can make inroads in China. The automaker presented a prototype of its future electric-vehicle lineup this week, including its Vision Neue Klasse concept car, which will be on display at next week’s IAA show in Munich. 

The vehicle is slated to be released in 2025 and sports a "digital display projected onto the entire width of the windscreen" and goes full Minority Report with " software that can process voice commands and hand gestures", according to Bloomberg. 

The idea is to appeal to Chinese customers, who tend to like more "gadgets" with their EVs, the report says. 

BMW CEO Chief Executive Officer Oliver Zipse said the vehicle will set BMW's course for "the next decades". 

He has also said that BMW continues to grow in China and isn't negatively affected by the ongoing price war, started by Tesla this year, because of the brand's positioning in the premium market. 

The top-end Neue Klasse models reportedly are going to have a range of up to 497 miles and will be able to charge from 10% to 80% in under 30 minutes. 

By Zerohedge.com

Australia Considers Extending The Life Of Its Biggest Coal Plant

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Sep 05, 2023,

The biggest coal-fired power plant in Australia could see its operating life extended beyond the planned closure in 2025, the government of New South Wales said on Tuesday.

The Eraring Power Station, Australia’s largest coal-fired plant, is located on the shores of Lake Macquarie in New South Wales, approximately 120 kilometers (74 miles) north of Sydney and 40 kilometers (25 miles) south of Newcastle. The station’s operator, Origin Energy, notified in 2022 the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) of the potential early retirement of Eraring in August 2025.  

The station, which has been operating since 1984, comprises four 720 MW coal-fired generator units and one 42 MW diesel generator. This gives it an overall generating capacity of 2,922 MW and makes it Australia’s largest power station, which accounts for around 25% of New South Wales’ power requirements.

Australia plans to retire a lot of its coal fleet by 2033 and to bet on renewable energy, but it faces power shortages if it rushes the energy transition, analysts and AEMO have warned.

The New South Wales government said today that a recent electricity reliability check-up has found there will be reliability challenges for NSW in the next couple of years.

“The government will engage with Origin on its plans for Eraring, at the same time as pursuing all alternative solutions to deliver the renewable generation, transmission and storage solutions that NSW needs,” NSW said.

“The check-up makes it clear that the case for Origin Energy to extend its time frame for Eraring is there, as does the recent AEMO report on reliability,” NSW Minister for Energy, Penny Sharpe, said at a news conference.  

AEMO’s most recent reliability report showed that a central scenario in the analysis found increased reliability risk.

“Over the 10-year outlook, we continue to forecast reliability gaps, which are mostly due to the expectation that 62 percent of today’s coal fleet will retire by 2033,” AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman said.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

 

Tata’s Sustainability Shift Could Revolutionize UK Steel

By Metal Miner - Sep 06, 2023, 

• The proposed UK government support complements Tata Steel India's £700 million planned investment in Port Talbot.
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• While safeguarding the plant's future is crucial, Tata Steel hints at possible layoffs, impacting up to 3,000 employees.
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• Tata emphasizes the move to low-emission sustainable technologies, aligning with the UK's decarbonization goals.
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Via Metal Miner

The British government and Tata Steel remain in discussion regarding the future of the Port Talbot steel manufacturing plant. Recently, the government said they may pledge a substantial £500 million (approx. U.S. $629 million) in financial support for the South Wales facility. This may be in addition to Tata Steel India’s planned investment of £700 million in the same unit, in conjunction with their commitment to construct an electric arc furnace. 

According to the Hindu BusinessLine, Tata Steel responded to a questionnaire saying that talks with the UK government were ongoing. The organizations continue to seek a framework for the continuity and decarbonization of steel making in the UK. Of course, they have to deal with very challenging underlying business conditions, given that several of Tata’s heavy-end assets are approaching the end of life.

The ongoing discussions aim to safeguard the future of the Port Talbot steelworks. At present, the plant has about 8,000 employees. However, Tata Steel recently cautioned that laying off 3,000 of them could prove necessary in the foreseeable future.

Tata Hopes to Embrace More Sustainable Tech

It’s important to point out that the £500 million is nowhere near the £1.5 billion Tate initially sought from the UK government. This was back in January of 2023, when the British government first proposed a comprehensive package for the steel manufacturing industry, including Tata Steel UK.

Following the announcement, Tata Steel indicated its intention to assess the proposed offer thoroughly before determining the future direction of its operations in the UK. Indeed, the country remains steadfastly committed to decarbonization and escalating the carbon tax. According to Tata Steel’s annual report, the transition to alternative technologies has, therefore, become a priority for Port Talbot’s sustainability. Coincidentally, steel exports from India to European countries reached a five-year high between April and July.

The Tata group told the media that given the aging profile of Tata Steel UK’s legacy steel making assets, the UK’s decarbonization journey, and rising carbon costs, it was necessary to move Port Talbot over to low-emission sustainable technologies. This would be the best way to ensure the continuity of steel making in the long-term. Speaking of long-term, no steel buyer should ever make purchasing/sourcing decisions without knowing long-term price projections. MetalMiner Insights provides both short-term and long-term steel price projections. Learn more.

Despite Losses, Tata Remains a Steel Manufacturing Powerhouse

A report in moneycontrol.com noted that over the past decade or so, up to FY22, Tata Steel’s UK division had sustained annual losses. These included capital expenditures and amounted to around $393 million a year. Still, both the Netherlands and UK plants are integral components of Tata Steel’s broader European operations.

Tata Steel UK has since streamlined its steel production operations to a single site located in Port Talbot. The facility manages two blast furnaces with a combined production capacity of 5 million tons per annum (MTPA). 

As the largest steel producer in the UK, the company specializes in the manufacture of high-quality strip steel products tailored for diverse sectors. This includes steel manufacturing for the construction, automotive, packaging, and engineering industries. Will this have a significant impact on 2024 steel sourcing? Learn how to manage falling demand, rising prices and supply chain shocks in MetalMiner’s free September workshop here.

By Sohrab Darabshaw