Sunday, June 02, 2024

Structural inequities amplify homelessness challenges for pregnant people in Washington DC

GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER

WASHINGTON -- New research conducted with Washington, DC, residents who experienced homelessness during pregnancy sheds light on the intersection of homelessness, pregnancy, and racial inequities. The findings underscore the urgent need for policy and practice changes to support vulnerable populations.

The study, published May 30, 2024 in the journal Health Equity (DOI: 10.1089/heq.2023.0235), is grounded in a reproductive justice framework and delves into the lived experiences of 20 DC residents who faced homelessness while pregnant.

Homelessness during pregnancy is a symptom of broader structural inequities in access to safe and stable housing, and exacerbates adverse health outcomes for birthing people and infants. Conducted by researchers aiming for an action-oriented recommendations, the findings emphasized three key areas for policy and practice improvements:

Timely Access to Safe Housing: One of the foremost recommendations is ensuring pregnant individuals have timely and meaningful access to safe and stable housing. The lack of secure housing not only impacts immediate health but also sets the stage for long-term challenges in child-rearing and family stability.
Comprehensive Care Coordination: The study advocates for improved care coordination encompassing services and referrals that support physical, mental, and social well-being. Housing insecurity often intertwines with other complex needs, necessitating a holistic approach to healthcare and social support systems.
Economic Justice and Affordable Housing: Access to a living wage and affordable housing emerged as critical components. Economic disparities, compounded by lack of affordable housing, disproportionately affect marginalized communities, amplifying the cycle of homelessness and health disparities.

The study’s lead researcher says stable housing is critical to health outcomes for the child and parents.

"Pregnant and parenting people in Washington, DC, must have a stable home as early in pregnancy as possible,” says Christina X. Marea, PhD, MA, MSN, FACNM, assistant professor of nursing at Georgetown’s School of Nursing. “That stability can improve health outcomes for birthing people and infants, support their ability to plan for the postpartum period, and enable them to enjoy this incredible life transition without the unrelenting stress and fear of homelessness.”

The study's insights have directly influenced strategic policy and practice recommendations, paving the way for a new model of collaboration across sectors. Initiatives like the DC Calling All Sectors Initiative (CASI), spearheaded by the DC Health Office of Health Equity, exemplify the commitment to bridging structural gaps and addressing the needs of vulnerable populations.

“The perspectives of people with lived experience has led directly to new initiatives at Community of Hope to support people who are pregnant and experiencing homelessness, says Kelly Sweeney McShane, CEO at Community of Hope, a community health center and homeless services provider who supported the study. “ The perinatal period is such an important one, and stable housing and access to healthcare are important components for both parent and baby during that critical period.”

The study's recommendations align with broader efforts to promote health equity and dismantle systemic injustices. Sustained political will and collaborative endeavors are essential to effectuating tangible improvements in housing accessibility and perinatal care.

The authors stress that as the nation grapples with ongoing challenges in housing insecurity and healthcare disparities, initiatives rooted in community based participatory research, that are intentionally informed by the lived experience of impacted residents, offer a beacon of hope for transformative change. The voices and experiences of those navigating homelessness during pregnancy serve as catalysts for a more inclusive and equitable future.

The work was supported by a grant from the Health Impact Project, a collaboration of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Pew Charitable Trusts.

C. Anneta Arno, PhD, MPH, Chief Health Equity Officer at DC Health, says, “The Office of Health Equity is appreciative of the grant, which enabled us to tangibly demonstrate the importance of proactive engagement of non-traditional partners, including impacted residents, government agencies, community-based organizations, as well as academia, to inform equity-driven collaborative practice change, by applying a health in all policies framework to address persistent structural barriers to health.”

###

In addition to Marea, Arno, and McShane, collaborating researchers include Andrew Lozano, MPH, and Makeda Vanderpuije, MPH CPH, DC Health Office of Health Equity; Kelley N. Robinson, PhD, CNM, CNE, University of Maryland; Karen Trister Grace, PhD, MSN, CNM, FACNM, George Mason University School of Nursing; and Noelene K. Jeffers, PhD, CNM, IBCLC, Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing.

The authors report having no personal financial interests related to the study.

JOURNAL

Health Equity

DOI

10.1089/heq.2023.0235

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Navigating Homelessness Assistance While Pregnant: A Rapid Qualitative Research-to-Policy Collaboration in Washington DC

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

30-May-2024

University of Maryland study shows N95 masks near-perfect at blocking escape of airborne COVID-19

Study finds all masks effective, but “duckbill” N95 masks far outperform others, suggests they should be the standard in high-risk settings

UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND

COLLEGE PARK, Md. – In a head-to-head comparison of masks worn by people with active
COVID-19, the inexpensive “duckbill” N95 came out on top, stopping 98% of COVID-19 particles
in the breath of infected people from escaping into the air. Led by researchers from the University
of Maryland School of Public Health (SPH), results showed other masks also performed well,
blocking at least 70% of viral particles from escaping from the source – an infected person’s
exhaled breath.

The study, Relative efficacy of masks and respirators as source control for viral aerosol shedding
from people infected with SARS-CoV-2, published May 29 in eBioMedicine, a Lancet journal.

“The research shows that any mask is much better than no mask, and an N95 is significantly
better than the other options. That’s the number one message,” says the study’s senior author,
Dr. Donald Milton. Milton is a UMD SPH professor of environmental health and a global expert on
how viruses spread through the air.

The study started in May 2020, shortly after the pandemic began, and compared breath samples
from volunteers who had active COVID-19, testing the performance of four commonly-used
masks. Even without giving participants fit tests or training on how to wear masks correctly, all
masks significantly reduced the amount of virus escaping into the air. The study tested masks as
a way to control the spread of the virus from the source, i.e. the infected person, and did not test
masks as protection from COVID-19 in the surrounding air.

“Because COVID-19 is airborne, we focused on the extent to which wearing a mask reduces
contamination of the air around you,” Milton says. This latest study is a continuation of
investigations by UMD’s Public Health AeroBiology Lab (PHAB Lab) into how contagious
respiratory viruses such as influenza contaminate the air.

Researchers asked volunteers with COVID-19 to breathe into a unique contraption known as the
Gesundheit II Machine, developed by Milton and colleagues to measure viruses in exhaled
breath. Participants, who breathed into the machine for 30 minutes at a time, were asked to do a
variety of vocalizations such as repeating the alphabet, singing Happy Birthday, and even
honoring UMD’s mascot by repeatedly shouting “Go Terps!”

In each instance, researchers measured the amount of viral particles in the exhaled breath of
volunteers, pairing each 30-minute session of breathing with a mask on with another 30-minute
session with no mask.

“Data from our study suggests that a mildly symptomatic person with COVID-19 who is not
wearing a mask exhales a little over two infectious doses per hour,” says first author Dr. Jianyu
Lai, a postdoctoral researcher at the PHAB Lab. “But when wearing an N95 mask, the risk goes
down exponentially.”

The duckbill N95 blocked 99% of large particles and 98% of small particles from escaping out of
a person’s mask. Milton says the design’s tight seal, a powerful filter, and large air space for
breath to move around all contribute to the duckbill’s success.

Surprisingly, KN95 masks – the disposable masks used widely – were no more effective than
cloth or surgical masks. The study found that a common brand of KN95 masks leak more air than
duckbills or other studied masks, because they don’t conform to the face well. That flaw is
compounded by a powerful filter with more flow resistance that pushes air out of the mask at the
sides instead of through the filter, allowing more virus particles to escape into the surrounding air.

Cloth masks also outperformed both KN95 and surgical masks. Milton theorizes that cloth masks
with greater coverage, wrap around the face and give a better seal than either KN95 or surgical
masks. With cloth mask filters, flow resistance is also lower, allowing breath to pass through the
filter and not leak out the sides of the mask.

Limiting the amount of viral particles in the air is a key way to control highly contagious
respiratory viruses in general, Milton said. This is even more the case with the COVID-19 virus,
given transmissibility has increased over time, with Omicron in particular breaking through the
immunity people developed from vaccinations or prior infections.

“Our research shows definitively why it’s so important to have non-pharmaceutical responses like
wearing masks, and why we need studies like this to illuminate which masks are most effective,”
says Milton.

Both Milton and Lai hope that their findings will inform health policies going forward, including
when combatting potential outbreaks like bird flu or even the common flu.

“Duckbill N95 masks should be the standard of care in high-risk situations, such as nursing
homes and health care settings,” Lai says. “Now, when the next outbreak of a severe respiratory
virus occurs, we know exactly how to help control the spread, with this simple and inexpensive
solution.”

In addition to researchers from the UMD School of Public Health, collaborators include authors
from the UMD A. James Clark School of Engineering and the World Health Organization
Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control at the University of Hong
Kong, China.

This research was supported by the Prometheus-UMD, sponsored by the Defence Advanced
Research Projects Agency (agreement N66001-18-2-4015), the National Institute of Allergy and
Infectious Diseases Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance (contract
12-HHSN272201400008C), and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (contract
200-2020-09528); by a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and by a gift from The
Flu Lab.

JOURNAL

The Lancet

Innovative bird-eye-inspired camera developed for enhanced object detection

A new type of perovskite-based camera specializing in object detection is developed by mimicking bird's eye

INSTITUTE FOR BASIC SCIENCE

IMAGE:
STRUCTURES AND FUNCTIONS OF BIRD’S EYE. (A) BIRD VISION. (B) DEEP CENTRAL FOVEA AND FOUR TYPES OF CONES. (C) FOVEATED VISION AND TETRACHROMATIC VISION.
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CREDIT: INSTITUTE FOR BASIC SCIENCE

The eyes of raptors such as eagles can accurately perceive prey from kilometers away. Is it possible to model the camera technology after the bird’s eyes?

Researchers developed a new type of camera, which was inspired by the structures and functions of bird's eyes. A research team led by Prof. KIM Dae-Hyeong at the Center for Nanoparticle Research within the Institute for Basic Science (IBS), in collaboration with Prof. SONG Young Min at the Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST), has developed perovskite-based camera specializing in object detection.

The eyes of different organisms in the natural world have evolved and been optimized to suit their habitat and the environment in which they survive. As a result of countless years of evolutionary adaptation to the environment of living and flying at high altitudes, bird eyes also have unique structures and visual functions (Figure 1a).

In the retina of an animal's eye, there is a small pit called the fovea that refracts the light entering the eye. Unlike the shallow foveae found in human eyes, bird eyes have deep central foveae, which refract the incoming light to a large extent. The region of the highest cone density lies within the foveae (Figure 1b), allowing the birds to clearly perceive distant objects through magnification (Figure 1c). This specialized vision is known as foveated vision.

While human eyes can only see visible light, bird eyes have four cones that respond to ultraviolet (UV) as well as visible (red, green, blue; RGB) light. This tetrachromatic vision enables birds to acquire abundant visual information and effectively detect target objects in a dynamic environment (Figure 1c).

Inspired by these capabilities, the IBS research team designed a new type of camera that specializes in object detection, incorporating artificial fovea and a multispectral image sensor that responds to both UV and RGB (Figure 2a). First, the researchers fabricated the artificial fovea by mimicking the deep central foveae in the bird's eyes (Figure 2b) and optimized the design through the optical simulation. This allows for the camera to magnify distant target objects without image distortion.

The team then used perovskite, a material known for its excellent electrical and optical properties, to fabricate the multispectral image sensor. Four types of photodetectors were fabricated using different perovskite materials that absorb different wavelengths. The multispectral image sensor was finally fabricated by vertically stacking the four photodetectors (Figures 2c and 2d).

The first co-author Dr. PARK Jinhong states, “We also developed a new transfer process to vertically stack the photodetectors. By using the perovskite patterning method developed in our previous research, we were able to fabricate the multispectral image sensor that can detect UV and RGB without additional color filters.”

Conventional cameras that use a zoom lens to magnify objects have the disadvantage of focusing only on the target object and not its surroundings. On the other hand, the bird-eye-inspired camera provides both a magnified view of the foveal region along with the surrounding view of the peripheral region (Figures 3a and 3b). By comparing the two fields of vision, the bird-eye-inspired camera can achieve greater motion detection capabilities than the conventional camera (Figure 3c and 3d). In addition, the camera is more cost-effective and lightweight as it can distinguish UV and RGB light without additional color filters.

The research team verified the object recognition and motion detection capabilities of the developed camera through simulations. In terms of object recognition, the new camera demonstrated a confidence score of 0.76, which is about twice as high as the existing camera system's confidence score of 0.39. The motion detection rate also increased by 3.6 times compared to the existing camera system, indicating significantly enhanced sensitivity to motion.

"Birds’ eyes have evolved to quickly and accurately detect distant objects while in flight. Our camera can be used in areas that need to detect objects clearly, such as robots and autonomous vehicles. In particular, the camera has great potential for application to drones operating in environments similar to those in which birds live,” remarked Prof. Kim.

This innovative camera technology represents a significant advancement in object detection, offering numerous potential applications across various industries.

Bird-eye-inspired camera. (a) Schematic view of bird-eye-inspired camera. (b) Artificial fovea. (c) Schematic of a multispectral image sensor. (d) Multispectral image sensor.

Performance of the bird-eye-inspired camera. (a) Setup for measurement. (b) Bird-eye-inspired camera perceives both the distant object (star) through magnification in the foveal region and nearby objects (triangle, square, circle) in the peripheral region. (c, d) The multispectral image sensor can distinguish UV and RGB light without color filters and capture colored images.

CREDIT

Institute for Basic Science

JOURNAL

Science Robotics

DOI

10.1126/scirobotics.adk6903

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Avian-eye-inspired perovskite artificial vision system for foveated and multispectral imaging

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

29-May-2024

Local bright spot among melting glaciers: 2000 km of Antarctic ice-covered coastline has been stable for 85 years

first woman to set foot in Antarctica

Ingrid Christensen, wife of Lars Christensen, took part in several expeditions to Antarctica and is considered the first woman to set foot in Antarctica. Here she is seen in the Stinson airplane in 1937 ready to throw a Norwegian flag over the land area in East Antarctica. Copyright Norwegian Polar Institute

CREDIT

A whaler's forgotten aerial photos from 1937 have given researchers at the University of Copenhagen the most detailed picture of the ice evolution in East Antarctica to date

UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN - FACULTY OF SCIENCE

Overview map — IMAGE:
OVERVIEW MAP OF THE EXPEDITION ROUTE IN 1936/1937 AND THE AREAS INVESTIGATED BY THE RESEARCHERS.
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CREDIT: MADS DØMGAARD

A whaler's forgotten aerial photos from 1937 have given researchers at the University of Copenhagen the most detailed picture of the ice evolution in East Antarctica to date. The results show that the ice has remained stable and even grown slightly over almost a century, though scientists observe early signs of weakening. The research offers new insights that enhance predictions of ice changes and sea level rise.

Higher temperatures, extreme weather, melting glaciers, and rising sea levels - all indicators that the climate and the world's ice masses are in a critical state. However, a new study from the Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management at the University of Copenhagen offers a local bright spot.

Using hundreds of old aerial photographs dating back to 1937, combined with modern computer technology, the researchers have tracked the evolution of glaciers in East Antarctica. The area covers approximately 2000 kilometers of coastline and contains as much ice as the entire Greenland Ice Sheet.

By comparing the historical aerial photos with modern satellite data, the researchers have been able to determine whether the glaciers have retreated or advanced and whether they have thickened or thinned. The study reveals that the ice has not only remained stable but grown slightly over the last 85 years, partly due to increasing snowfall.

“We constantly hear about climate change and new melt records, so it's refreshing to observe an area of glaciers that has remained stable for almost a century,” says PhD student Mads Dømgaard, the study’s first author.

However, the researcher emphasizes that the study also shows the first signs of changes in the sea ice off the glacier. This could mean that the stable East Antarctic glaciers might shrink in the future.

“Our results also indicate weakening sea ice conditions, making the glaciers’ floating ice tongues more vulnerable and unable to grow as large as seen in the early aerial images from 1937. We know from other parts of Antarctica that the ocean plays an extremely important role and drives the massive and increasing melt we see in e.g. West Antarctica,” says Mads Dømgaard.

Hidden from the Nazis

Most of the images used in the study were captured during a 1937 expedition organized and paid for by Norwegian whaler Lars Christensen. The mission aimed to produce the first maps of this part of East Antarctica, but the maps were never published due to the German invasion of Norway. Since then, the images have been stored at the Norwegian Polar Institute in Tromsø and forgotten.

When the researchers from the University of Copenhagen read about the expedition, they realized that valuable images were likely hidden in an archive in Norway. They traveled to Tromsø and reviewed all 2200 images taken during the expedition. They supplemented the Norwegian aerial images with images of the same glaciers from Australian surveys conducted between 1950 and 1974.

“By comparing the historical aerial photos with modern satellite data, we have gained critical knowledge about glaciers that we would not otherwise have had. I think it's fantastic that these old images can be used to generated new research results almost 100 years after they were taken,” says Assistant Professor Anders Bjørk from the University of Copenhagen, who leads the group working with the historical images.

Potential for major sea level rise

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is receiving increasing attention from researchers, due to its potential for extremely large and rapid sea level rise. Unlike Greenland, very little was known about Antarctica glaciers until the 1990s, when the first good satellite observations became available.

“Early observations of glaciers are extremely valuable as they give us a unique insight into how the ice has evolved through a varying climate and whether current changes in the ice exceed the glaciers' normal cycle of advance and retreat,” explains Mads Dømgaard.

According to the researcher, solid, long-term data is crucial for producing accurate predictions of future glacier evolutions and sea level rise, and this study provides new insights into a vast area in East Antarctica.

“The long time series of glaciers improves our ability to make more accurate models of future ice changes, as the models are trained on historical observations,” concludes Anders Bjørk.

The results have just been published in Nature Communications and are a collaboration between researchers from the University of Copenhagen, the Norwegian Polar Institute, the Arctic University of Norway and the Institute of Environmental Geosciences in France.

Honnörbrygga Glacier in Lützow-Holm Bay in 1937 compared to a modern Landsat satellite image from 2023

Honnörbrygga Glacier in Lützow-Holm Bay in 1937 compared to a modern Landsat satellite image from 2023. The 9km long floating ice tongue seen in the 1937 image disappeared in the late 1950s and has not grown back due to weakening sea ice.

CREDIT

Mads Dømgaard / Norwegian Polar Institute

A Stinson Reliant poton aircraft

The whaling ship Firern, with the Stinson Reliant aircraft on board, near Klarius Mikkelsen Fjell in Lars Christensen Land in East Antarctica. Copyright Norwegian Polar Institute

CREDIT

More about the study

- Out of 2200 images photographed from seaplanes in 1937, 130 were selected for the analysis.

- The researchers combined the historical photos with modern satellite data to create 3D reconstructions of the glaciers.

- The Norwegian aerial images were supplemented with 165 aerial images of the same glaciers from Australian surveys conducted between 1950 and 1974. This allowed the researchers to examine the evolution of the glaciers over different periods and calculate historical ice flow speeds for selected glaciers.

- Compared to modern data, the ice flow speeds are unchanged. While some glaciers have thinned over shorter intermediate periods of 10-20 years, they have remained stable or grown slightly in the long term, indicating a system in balance.

Authors behind the study:

- The research is funded by the Villum Foundation.

JOURNAL

Nature Communications

DOI

10.1038/s41467-024-48886-x

ARTICLE TITLE

Early aerial expedition photos reveal 85 years of glacier growth and stability in East Antarctica

High groundwater depletion risk in South Korea in 2080s

POHANG UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY (POSTECH)

Occurrence years of deep level groundwater depletion (unprecedented groundwater level) on the Korean Peninsula — IMAGE:
OCCURRENCE YEARS OF DEEP LEVEL GROUNDWATER DEPLETION (UNPRECEDENTED GROUNDWATER LEVEL) ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA
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CREDIT: POSTECH

Groundwater is literally the water found beneath the Earth's surface. It forms when precipitation such as rain and snow seeps into the soil, replenishing rivers and lakes. This resource supplies our drinking water. However, a recent study has alarmed the scientific community by predicting that approximately three million people in currently untapped areas of Korea could face groundwater depletion by 2080.

A research team, led by Professor Jonghun Kam from Division of Environmental Science and Engineering and Dr. Chang-Kyun Park from the Institute of Environmental and Energy Technology (currently working for LG Energy Solution) at Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), used an advanced statistical method, to analyze surface and deep groundwater level data from 2009 to 2020, revealing critical spatiotemporal patterns in groundwater levels. Their findings were published in the international journal “Science of the Total Environment.”

Groundwater is crucial for ecosystems and socioeconomic development, particularly in mountainous regions where water systems are limited. However, recent social and economic activities along with urban development have led to significant groundwater overuse. Additionally, rising land temperatures are altering regional water flows and supplies, necessitating water policies that consider both natural and human impacts to effectively address climate change.

In a recent study, researchers used an advanced statistical method called “cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis (CSEOF)” to analyze water level data from nearly 200 surface and deep groundwater stations in the southern Korean Peninsula from 2009 to 2020. This analysis helped them identify important spatiotemporal patterns in groundwater levels.

The first and second principal components revealed that water level patterns mirrored recurring seasonal changes and droughts. While shallow-level groundwater is more sensitive to the seasonality of precipitation than the drought occurrence, deep-level groundwater is more sensitive to the drought occurrence than seasonality of precipitation. This indicates that both shallow-level and deep-level groundwater are crucial for meeting community water needs and mitigating drought effects.

The third principal component highlighted a decline in groundwater levels in the western Korean Peninsula since 2009. The researchers projected that if this decline in deep groundwater continues, at least three million people in untapped or newly developed areas, primarily in the southwestern part of the peninsula, could face unprecedented groundwater level as a new normal (defined as groundwater depletion) by 2080. If the research team's predictions are correct, the impact would be particularly severe in drought-prone, untapped areas where groundwater is heavily relied upon.

Professor Jonghun Kam of POSTECH stated, "By leveraging long-term, multi-layer groundwater level data on Korea and advanced statistical techniques, we successfully analyzed the changing patterns of deep- and shallow-level groundwater levels and predicted the risk of groundwater depletion.” He added, “An integrated national development plan is essential, one that considers not only regional development plans but also balanced water resource management plans."

The research was sponsored by the Joint Research and Technology Development Project for Disaster Safety of the Ministry of the Interior and Safety and the Basic Research Program of the National Research Foundation of Korea.

JOURNAL

Science of The Total Environment

DOI

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172221

ARTICLE TITLE

Spatiotemporal patterns of groundwater over South Korea

Indian Ocean surface temperature could help anticipate dengue outbreaks

INSTITUT PASTEUR

Although dengue outbreaks cannot be prevented, it is possible to anticipate them. An international research team including scientists from the Institut Pasteur and Beijing Normal University in China has recently identified a global climate indicator that may help improve predictions about the magnitude of dengue outbreaks several months in advance. This indicator, which can be used for any world region, is based on temperature fluctuations at the surface of the Indian Ocean. Obtaining reliable long-term predictions could facilitate efforts to tackle this infection, which has been on the rise for several decades and threatens half of the world's population. The research results were published in the journal Science on May 10, 2024.

The ability to anticipate dengue outbreaks is crucial in planning control measures against the mosquitoes that transmit the disease and mobilizing hospital staff and equipment. And this is vitally important, because although vaccines have been developed, there is no specific treatment for the symptoms of this "tropical influenza," and the severity of outbreaks can vary hugely from one year to the next. "The dynamics of dengue are complex because the virus responsible for infection exists in four different forms, or serotypes, which can change from one year to the next and one country to the next," explains Simon Cauchemez, joint last author of the study and Head of the Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases Unit at the Institut Pasteur. "So the magnitude of dengue outbreaks can vary considerably from one season to the next."

We now know that the reproduction and infectivity of Aedes genus mosquitoes that transmit dengue viruses, and by extension the transmission rate and scale of outbreaks, are closely correlated with local temperature and rainfall. But these parameters can only be predicted between two weeks and three months in advance, and the quality of forecasts decreases rapidly for longer-term predictions. Global climate indicators like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can generally be predicted over a longer period, beyond six months. An international team therefore decided to study 30 global climate indicators to determine whether monitoring such indicators could help predict dengue outbreaks further in advance.

The team compiled two large datasets: the total number of annual dengue cases reported in 46 countries in South-East Asia and America over 30 years (1990-2019), and also the monthly number of dengue cases in 24 countries over six years (2014-2019). They found that of all the indicators under consideration, the Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) index, which measures temperature fluctuations at the surface of the Indian Ocean, was the global indicator that was most closely correlated to annual dengue incidence in both the northern and southern hemispheres.

“Our results revealed that incorporating the IOBW index into our mathematical model resulted in predictions that closely matched real-world data, compared to the model excluding the IOBW index,” notes Huaiyu Tian, co-last author of the study and Director of the Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University. “The extended lead time and improved predictive ability underscore the significance of the IOBW index in dengue forecasting and early warning systems.”

These interesting theoretical findings will need to be validated in real conditions. "Our aim is to develop predictive models for dengue outbreaks in Guadeloupe, French Guiana and Martinique, and we will now explore whether the IOBW index can effectively improve these predictions," explains Simon Cauchemez. "Climate is not the only factor that influences dengue outbreaks. For these predictive models we will also need to take into account other factors like immunity levels in the population, strains previously in circulation, etc."

If the findings are borne out, the new indicator could help improve the prediction of dengue outbreaks, thereby also improving efforts to tackle this infectious disease, which affects 50,000 million people each year. The incidence of dengue has risen dramatically in recent years, especially in mainland France. Between January 1 and April 19, 2024, 1,679 imported dengue cases were reported to Santé publique France, compared with 131 over the same period in 2023.

JOURNAL

Science

DOI

10.1126/science.adj4427

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Computational simulation/modeling

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Indian Ocean temperature anomalies predict long-term global dengue trends