Thursday, August 03, 2006

Laxer Wrong

James Laxer, the old new leftie is wrong again. He predicts that Kennedy will win the Liberal Leadership race and be a threat to both the NDP and Conservatives. Wishful thinking that. He dismisses Bob Rae outright. Of course that was yesterday. Today we know that Bob Rae has raised more filthy Liberal lucre than any other Leadership hopeful. Leaving the likes of Ken Dryden to reconsider their campaigns.

Its a race between the back room boys candidate Ignatieff and Rae. No other Liberals need apply.

Ignatieff remains the voice of the right wing of the party, apparently Rae can mobilize the progressive wing at least in Toronto. While Laxer claims Kennedy has sold more memberships, that merely places him as King Maker, not a contender. Kennedy is dull, dull, dull as a candidate.

Rae has been underestimated because of the debacle of his NDP government in Ontario. And while the Liberal base is strong in Ontario, it is a National Leadership race. And the only thing that wins such a race is money. And the Liberals are all about money. Grassroots support is nice rhetoric, but its cold hard cash that buys, err...wins races.

So it behooves me to ask the remaining Liberal Leadership candidates to do us all a big favour; quit. This is a two man race, lets get it on before December. How about doing it in September, so we can have a nice fall election. Huh, how about it?


http://www.magazine.utoronto.ca/02autumn/images/Ignatieff&Rae3.jpg

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2 comments:

Donald said...

I don't see Rae's growth potential from other camps. A few might back him but I don't see the swell for him. Most Ontarians associate Rae with "fiscal meltdown", for better or worse, and he is anathema to the centre-Right fiscal types like Brison, Bevilacqua, etc. I think that Kennedy is seen as a solid and safe choice, which might rope him in a lot of the former Cabinet candidates and their backers if they see him as an alternative to Ignatieff. He may be a comfortable compromise over the "new joiner" candidates Ignatieff and Rae. It is plausible that Rae could come third on the penultimate ballot and then back Kennedy.

The fundraising amounts help, but the amounts are small and the differences not yet important. I mean, the expenditure limit is $3.4 million, yet all the many candidates combined haven't raised that yet. I'd say it is still a three-way race, at the least.

Gregory D. Morrow said...

Take a look at the regional splits that I put together at DemocraticSPACE.com. From this, you will see that almost 3/4 of Rae's support come exclusively from the 416 area code (City of Toronto only) - a region with just 5% of the delegates. So it's unlikely that Rae has the broad support needed to win. Look for Kennedy, Dryden and Brison to do better than their fundraising shows, because their support isn't only in one region.

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