Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Stelmach Up The Middle

Ted Morton is scared. He announced yesterday that he was now the moderate candidate for leadership of the provincial PC's. With major endorsements from Hancock and Oberg and now Norris, Stelmach is gaining strength in numbers. And this scares Morton.

Morton tries to lure support from leadership rivals

With Dinning grabbing the majority of the votes and Stelmach’s support growing since the ballots were counted, Morton, who sits in the right end of the political spectrum, yesterday cast a wider net looking for Conservatives of all shades to join his campaign.

“To the supporters of the other candidates ... I’d be honoured to have your support,” he said.

“My goal has always been a broad, inclusive coalition that includes all Conservatives, red Tories, blue Tories, green Tories, back into our party.”

And although he has promised to build a party based on principle, at the end of the day, he will do what the Tory majority wants him to do, he said yesterday(MON).

“A Ted Morton government will be as Conservative or as Liberal or as moderate as our party wants it to be,” he said.

“The key to keeping a conservative coalition together ... means that no one fraction is going to get everything they want all the time, including myself.”

Yes I know I said that Stelmach was out of the race earlier however I have crunched the numbers and with Norris supporters added to them he has a chance to win. Mea Culpa and a nod to Ken Chapman.

Obviously the Morton camp has done the same. With Saturdays balloting based on Proportional voting, you chose first, second and third place, Stelmachs chances are now better than they looked on the weekend.

Take a look at Greg Farries Map and you will see why.


Mortons power is in the Socred stomping grounds of Southern Alberta. While Stelmachs support is now enhanced in Edmonton, and Northern Alberta (Oberg), and even with Obergs support in Calgary, which went Dinning red.

Dinning will not win the first ballot on Saturday, the forces in the PC's are united in a campaign of anybody but Dinning.

"I think that Jim Dinning is a nice man" but he's surrounded himself with the "Calgary mafia" and "back-room boys," Norris said, explaining why he didn't hitch his star to Dinning's campaign.

Dinning shot his load last week. And his numbers will not go up. His campaign is stalled thanks to Stelmach.Some of the Oberg support may go to Morton, but it is weak. Doerksons vote will go to Morton and Stelmach. McPhersons support goes to Stelmach.Rather the numbers say that Stelmach can come up the middle and win the second ballot. Add them up yourself.

Dinning 29,470 (30.2%)
Morton 25,614 (26.2%)
Stelmach 14,967 (15.3%)
Oberg 11,638 (11.9%)
Hancock 7,595 (7.8%)
Norris 6,789 (6.9%)
Doerksen 873 (0.9%)
McPherson 744 (0.8%)

Stelmach with support from Hancock, Oberg and Norris alone has 40,989. Which is why Morton is afraid, very afraid.Not only has he gotten support from the four, fifth and sixth place candidates, he is everyones favorite second choice on the three choice ballot next weekend. Morton and Dinning supporters all will vote him as second choice. So if there is no clear winner on the first ballot, Stelmach wins.

"Seventy per cent of our party rejected the establishment status quo of Jim Dinning on Saturday night and, given the preferential ballot system we'll be using, the real race is between Ed and myself," Mr. Morton said.

Dinning is claiming it's a two way fight between him and Morton.

Dinning has ruled out Stelmach as a contender and says Morton is his only challenger."I have a high regard for Ed Stelmach. I would love to have him as a right-hand person. He cares about Alberta, he's a smart guy. But clearly, I think that this has come down to a serious two-person race with two distinctly different choices."

I thought so do. But it ain't so. Stelmach seen as man to heal party torn over leadership vote

It's Stelmach up the middle.
Which would be good forAlberta. Why? Well two little words; Harry Strom.


Conservative Leadership Race

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