Wednesday, October 19, 2005

DOOM: Not the Movie, Harpers Future

So I was tracking the links to my blogs, being the curious fellow I am, and came across this site/blog of Gregory D. Morrow who is a Canadian Urban Planning Prof at UCLA.

He has a good analysis of Canadian Electoral Politics... he appears to be an authentic libertarian his website/blog is called appropriately democraticSPACE,....he has analysis of the party positioning this fall in the house....
The Numbers Don’t Add Up For Social Conservatism in Canada, this is the header article and well worth the read, his October blogging is excellent including and analysis of the NDP strategies. Yep a good read this guy.

Well of course where would we be without the weekly poll and so as I cruised the
progressive blogs, I came across My Bhlag which drew attention to this poll which fits nicely with Morrows analysis.

Liberal support growing despite scandals: poll

Ouch all those slings and arrows firing from the Opposition benches and the Liberals thumb their noses and say; "nyah nyah sticks and stones will break our bones but names will never hurt us"....and it works with the voters (of Ontario and B.C.)

Oh dear the Harper is in trouble......

First Peter McKay upstaged him for two weeks as the house opened, and now Jack Layton is upstaging him with his tough love announcement to the Liberals about not counting on NDP support.

Yep a tough couple of weeks to be a Tory. Especially a one trick Tory...Fall Election, Fall Election...when that doesn't happen what else can they pull out of their bag of tricks? Gomery, sorry the Bloc has that sewed up. More teeny tiny scandals, Dingwall, Fisheries, well obviously these are not enough to make people vote for the Harper.

Opposition won't let PM off the hook for ad scandal
Whatever Gomery concludes, Bloc, NDP say Martin bears some responsibility
The Bloc Québécois and NDP insisted yesterday that Judge Gomery's report from his inquiry into the sponsorship program will certainly point to serious abuses in a Liberal government of which Mr. Martin was a ranking member. They said he cannot escape responsibility for the fact that it occurred on the Liberal watch, even if he was unaware of the details.

And like Morrow says counting on the Social Conservatives will get Harper nowhere, he has already lost his PC base which wanders in the desert looking for a home, drifting to the Liberals, Greens, heck even the NDP, as Bev Desjarlais proves.

Yep its tough to be Harper, always the loser.....heck even Gilles Ducceppe is more popular as a Leader.

Liberals widen gap in poll

Slumping Conservative fortunes

The results also slow an increasing number of Canadians are warming to Mr. Martin's performance, while the bulk hold a negative image of Conservative Leader Stephen Harper.

Mr. Layton continues to be the most popular federal leader, with an approval rating of 60 per cent.

Mr. Gregg said Mr. Harper's negative image may be difficult to turn around.

"[Voters] just can't get a feel for him at a personal level," he said. "It's very tough. It's going to be very, very tough."

Mr. Gregg also noted that the David Dingwall affair does not appear to have shaken the Liberals, although the poll was taken when the Commons was not sitting.

Voting intentions

Oct. 14:

Liberals: 38%

Conservatives: 25%

NDP: 15%

Bloc: 14%

Overall impressions of the party leaders
(1,000 respondents)
Favourable Not favourable Net Favourable Not favourable Net
June 9 Oct. 14
Paul Martin 44% 56% -12% 49% 51% -2%
Stephen Harper 40% 60% -20% 42% 58% -16%
Jack Layton 61% 39% 22% 60% 40% 20%
Gilles Duceppe 70% 30% 40% 68% 32% 36%


No comments: