Trump may have aided Australian PM’s election victory: analysts
By AFP
May 3, 2025
Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese waves as he arrives onstage in Sydney after winning a general election - Copyright AFP Saeed KHAN
David WILLIAMS
Donald Trump’s stinging trade tariffs may have helped Australia’s left-leaning prime minister snatch a resounding election victory Saturday, analysts say.
Unlike Canada’s Trump-swayed vote three days earlier, the US president was far from the biggest concern for voters who backed Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, academics said.
But some said Trump nevertheless appeared to have a significant impact on the governing Labor Party’s late turnaround in the opinion polls, and the emphatic election result.
After trailing three months ago, Labor overtook opposition leader Peter Dutton’s conservative coalition and led a string of polls up to election day.
Dutton’s perceived “Trump-lite” policies — such as axing public service jobs in a drive for government efficiency — had turned some voters off, said Henry Maher, politics lecturer at the University of Sydney.
“Of course, there are other concerns — cost of living, defence, health and everything else,” he told AFP.
“But if we want to understand why a good chunk of the electorate has changed across the election campaign over the last couple of months, I think that’s the biggest thing.”
Trump’s unpopular 10-percent tariff on goods from longtime ally Australia, and the financial market disruption caused by his global trade policy, may have unnerved voters, Maher said.
“In times of instability, we expect people to go back to a kind of steady incumbent,” he said.
– ‘Volatility’ –
The Australian public’s confidence in its strongest ally, the United States, appears to have evaporated under Trump.
Only 36 percent of Australians trust the United States, according to an annual poll by the Lowy Institute — down 20 percentage points from 2024.
Dutton, who lost his own parliamentary seat in the election drubbing, earlier this year described Trump as a “big thinker” and “shrewd”.
But he and Albanese both stiffened their rhetoric, insisting they would not bow to the American leader when defending Australia’s interests.
Kate Harrison Brennan, who was an advisor to Labor’s former prime minister Julia Gillard, said Dutton’s coalition had tried out policies that “looked quite similar to those in the United States”.
Trump “definitely” had an impact on the election, she told AFP.
Australians had seen the global disruption under Trump, said Harrison Brennan, director of the University of Sydney’s Policy Lab.
This, in turn, had benefited Albanese.
“He’s made that case well, that in that type of changing world and volatility, he’d bring calm but effective leadership for Australia,” she said.
Not all analysts agreed that Trump was the deciding factor.
Paul Williams, political scientist at Griffith University, said Albanese would have won even if Joe Biden was still in the White House.
– ‘Turning point’ –
The Australian central bank’s decision to cut key interest rates in February represented a “turning point” in Labor’s fortunes, he said.
“Obviously this has been a cost-of-living election, but my take is that the sting is coming out of the tail of the cost of living, because wages are catching up to inflation,” Williams told AFP.
He did not believe Dutton had lifted policies from Trump.
But the conservative leader had only proposed a few policies, such as introducing nuclear power to Australia, and had failed to explain them clearly to voters.
And he had been forced to abandon a short-lived, coolly received plan to stop public servants working from home, which would have hit women voters in particular, Williams said.
That and other shifts in the Dutton campaign’s policies opened him up to accusations that he could not be relied on to govern.
“They have not gone through a single week of this campaign where they have not flipped and flopped,” Albanese said on the eve of the election.
Undecided voters were not avoiding Dutton because he reminded them of Trump, Williams said.
“They are doing it because of Peter Dutton. Peter Dutton has lost this election because of Peter Dutton.”
Supporters of Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese react at a Labor party election night event, after local media projected the Labor Party's victory, on the day of the Australian federal election, in Sydney, Australia, May 3, 2025. REUTERS/Hollie Adams© Thomson Reuters
By Kirsty Needham, Alasdair Pal and Christine Chen
SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australia’s Anthony Albanese claimed a historic second term as prime minister on Saturday in a dramatic comeback against once-resurgent conservatives that was powered by voters' concerns about the influence of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Peter Dutton, leader of the conservative Liberal party, conceded defeat and the loss of his own seat - echoing the fate of Canada's conservatives and their leader whose election losses days earlier were also attributed to a Trump backlash.
Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese celebrates with his partner Jodie Haydon, his son Nathan Albanese and Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong at a Labor party election night event, after local media projected the Labor Party's victory, on the day of the Australian federal election, in Sydney, Australia, May 3, 2025. REUTERS/Hollie Adams© Thomson Reuters
Supporters at Labor’s election party in Sydney cheered and hugged each other as Albanese claimed victory and said his party would form a majority government.
"Our government will choose the Australian way, because we are proud of who we are and all that we have built together in this country," Albanese told supporters.
"We do not need to beg or borrow or copy from anywhere else. We do not seek our inspiration from overseas. We find it right here in our values and in our people," he added.
Supporters of Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese react at a Labor party election night event, after local media projected the Labor Party's victory, on the day of the Australian federal election, in Sydney, Australia, May 3, 2025. REUTERS/Hollie Adams© Thomson Reuters
Albanese would be the first Australian prime minister to win a consecutive term in two decades. He said Australians had voted for fairness and "the strength to show courage in adversity and kindness to those in need".
The Australian Electoral Commission website projected Labor would win 81 of 150 seats in the House of Representatives, increasing its majority in parliament, with 68% of the vote counted.
Dutton - whose Liberals had been leading in opinion polls as recently as February until he became dogged with comparisons to Trump - said he had phoned Albanese to congratulate him.
"We didn't do well enough during this campaign. That much is obvious tonight, and I accept full responsibility for that," Dutton said in a televised speech.
Supporters of Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hug at a Labor party election night event, after local media projected the Labor Party's victory, on the day of the Australian federal election, in Sydney, Australia, May 3, 2025. REUTERS/Hollie Adams© Thomson Reuters
The former policeman with a reputation for being tough on crime and immigration said he had spoken to Labor's candidate in the seat of Dickson he had held for two decades, and congratulated her on her success.
Supporters of Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hug at a Labor party election night event, after local media projected the Labor Party's win, on the day of the Australian federal election, in Sydney, Australia, May 3, 2025. REUTERS/Hollie Adams© Thomson Reuters
"We have been defined by our opponents in this election which is not the true story of who we are" Dutton said, promising the party would rebuild.
TRUMP COMPARISONS
Cost-of-living pressures and concerns about Trump's volatile policies had been among the top issues on voters' minds, opinion polls showed.
"If you sling enough mud it will stick," said Liberal Senator for the Northern Territory Jacinta Price, whose comments that her party would "make Australia great again" had fuelled comparisons to Trump's own "Make America Great Again" slogan.
Supporters of the Labor party react to the first preliminary results at an election night event, on the day of the Australian federal election, in Sydney, Australia, May 3, 2025. REUTERS/Hollie Adams© Thomson Reuters
"You made it all about Trump," she said on ABC. Dutton had said he would appoint Price to a ministry of government efficiency, one of several echoes of Trump's policies.
"Losing Peter Dutton is a huge loss," she added.
Opposition Liberal Party spokesman, Senator James Paterson, defended the conservative campaign, which he said was negatively affected by "the Trump factor".
"It was devastating in Canada for the conservatives ... I think it has been a factor here, just how big a factor will be determined in a few hours' time," he earlier told ABC.
A supporter of Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese wears sunglasses with the words 'Albo 2025' written on it at a Labor party election night event on the day of the Australian federal election, in Sydney, Australia, May 3, 2025. REUTERS/Hollie Adams© Thomson Reuters
Earlier, as counting got under way, Labor Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the government had been "in all sorts of trouble" at the end of 2024 but got back into the contest because of Albanese's strong campaign performance, policies that addressed concerns about the cost of living, and the Trump effect.
Related video: Australia’s Labor leader claims victory in election, opponent loses seat (cbc.ca)
Australia's estimated 18,000,000 voters have re elected the ruling Labour
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As the results started emerging, he told ABC the projected victory was "a win for the ages”. Albanese "has pulled off one of the great political victories since federation,” he said.
The results were "absolutely unbelievable", Labor supporter Melinda Adderley, 54, said through her tears at the election party.
(Reporting by Kirsty Needham and Alasdair Pal in Sydney; Editing by Edmund Klamann and Andrew Heavens)
Willie The Boatman the Albo pale ale is served at Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's Labor party election night event on the day of the Australian federal election, in Sydney, Australia, May 3, 2025. REUTERS/Hollie Adams© Thomson Reuters
Members of the media wait at Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's Labor party election night event on the day of the Australian federal election, in Sydney, Australia, May 3, 2025. REUTERS/Hollie Adams© Thomson Reuters
A supporter of Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese reacts at a Labor party election night event, on the day of the Australian federal election, in Sydney, Australia, May 3, 2025. REUTERS/Hollie Adams© Thomson Reuters
Supporters of the Labor party react at an election night event, on the day of the Australian federal election, in Sydney, Australia, May 3, 2025. REUTERS/Hollie Adams© Thomson Reuters
Anthony Albanese: Australia’s dog-loving, Tory fighting PM
By AFP
May 3, 2025
Copyright AFP/File Tetiana DZHAFAROVA
Steven TRASK
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is a craft beer afficionado who loves “fighting Tories”, clawing his way to the nation’s highest office from hardscrabble blue-collar beginnings.
Albanese’s centre-left Labor Party won a second term in government on Saturday night, dealing a crushing defeat to its conservative rivals.
A Labor Party lifer, Albanese has roamed the halls of parliament for almost 30 years since he was first elected as a fresh-faced 33-year-old in 1996.
“I like fighting Tories. That’s what I do,” was how he succinctly summed up his political mantra in 2012.
The 62-year-old grew up in a modest government-subsidised flat in Sydney’s inner city, and his blue-collar back story has become something of political legend.
He was raised as the only child of a single mother, who worked as a cleaner before her hands were wracked with rheumatoid arthritis.
Albanese spent much of his teenage years looking after his mother Maryanne, crediting his difficult upbringing as the inspiration for a career in progressive politics.
He started working for the Labor Party soon after graduating from the University of Sydney with a degree in economics in 1984.
– DJ ‘Albo’ –
Known simply as “Albo” to friends and foes alike, Albanese has made much of his ability to connect with middle Australia.
A favourite gimmick is helming the turntable at parties and campaign events under the alias “DJ Albo”.
To lighten up his regular appearances on Australian breakfast television, Albanese often calls on his shaggy cavoodle “Toto”.
At the height of his popularity in 2022, a popular Sydney brewery put Albanese’s grinning face on the side of its “Albo pale ale”.
The same beer, bearing a cartoon of Albanese in his student radical days, was handed out at his victory party on Saturday night.
True to his Labor roots, Albanese’s first term has focused on household concerns such as the cost of childcare and hospital funding.
He has promised to embrace renewable energy, tackle a worsening housing crisis and pour money into a creaking healthcare system.
And he won support from many Australians by criticising US President Donald Trump’s 10-percent trade tariffs as “not the act of a friend”.
– Stabilising China ties –
The rate of inflation has eased under Albanese’s leadership but the cost of food, fuel and rent remains stubbornly high.
One of Albanese’s flagship policies was a national referendum that aimed to give greater constitutional recognition to Indigenous Australians.
That vote ended in a stinging defeat.
His government has poured money into renewable energy and green manufacturing, and is bidding to host the COP climate conference in 2026.
But it has also granted permits for new mining projects while handing out subsidies to polluting fossil fuel industries.
Albanese has, however, been praised for stabilising ties with Australia’s largest trading partner, China.
He was the first Australian premier to visit China in seven years, and helped to end a trade war that hampered billions of dollars in trade.
Op-Ed: First Canada, now Australia – Anti-Trump backlash continues
By Paul WallisDIGITAL JOURNAL
May 3, 2025
A volunteer replaces campaign posters of Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with new ones in his Sydney electorate ahead of a general election May 3. - Copyright AFP Saeed KHAN
The Australian Labor Party achieved a huge success that even it wasn’t expecting. In a crushing defeat of the conservative opposition Labor now has more than double the numbers of the Liberal National Party Coalition in the House of Representatives.
Australia isn’t a particularly left or right country. Politics are generally centrist. Any form of extremism is unpopular and, in fact, usually despised. It’s considered un-Australian with good reason. Over the last century a lot of Australians have emigrated to Australia specifically to get away from political nutcases.
Like most Western countries, Australia was equally baffled by the return of Trump and not at all thrilled. Australians do not want to risk the misery of even traveling to the US after their revolting experiences last time.
It’s nothing personal. Most of us have American friends and relatives and do business in the States in some form. The problem is that you can’t be pro-American and support this melodramatic incompetence at the same time. These idiots are literally putting our friends and relatives at serious risk.
This election outcome really was an anti-Trump backlash, but only to a point. People are tired of politics. They are tired of governments ignoring basic human realities. The constant disruption and stresses of political madnesses since 2016 have long since outstayed their welcome.
Making things worse for the opposition were a series of Trump-like noises. Shamelessly imitating foreign ideologies isn’t terribly popular either. These noises included cuts to the public sector, a large nuclear program, and a seeming total disregard for the unpopularity of Trump’s various crusades.
It looks like conservatives around the world are all singing from the same hopelessly outdated and largely irrelevant hymn book. The same dogmatic approach to practically every subject simply doesn’t work. It’s particularly hard to see how millennials or Gen Z could possibly relate to these anachronisms.
Far worse is the fact that none of these Illiterate slash-and-burn policies could ever work. The world simply doesn’t do business like that anymore, and doesn’t live like that anymore. The classic conservative anti-globalism and anti-all other human beings obsession is merely insane.
The election delivered a truly punishing result. The relatively low-profile opposition leader who was weirdly and inaccurately described as an Australian Trump lost his own seat. He had held that seat for 24 years.
The new majority is unbreakable and will outlast Trump’s second term. That suits just about everybody because the distrust of Trump is pretty much universal on both sides of Australian politics. Only the senile and the infantile trust a windbag.
There are now few if any right-wing governments remaining in the English-speaking world. The question is whether or not global conservatism can understand the response.
Factbox-Policies of Australia's political parties at a glance
People vote at a pre-polling place in Sydney
(Reuters) -Australians will vote on Saturday in a close-run national election marked by concerns over the cost of living and housing affordability, as well as trade tensions triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.
Here's how Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's centre-left Labor party and the conservative Liberal-National coalition, led by Peter Dutton, compare on key policies:
HOUSING
Labor:
Would let all first-time home buyers enter the property market with a 5% down payment and has pledged to spend A$10 billion ($6.40 billion) to build up to 100,000 new homes.
Liberal-Nationals:
Would allow first-time home buyers to access up to A$50,000 from their government-mandated retirement savings for down payments. Mortgage interest payments would be made tax deductible. It has also pledged A$5 billion to fund housing infrastructure.
HEALTH
Labor:
Has pledged A$8.5 billion for an extra 18 million subsidised general practitioner visits each year as part of strengthening Medicare, the universal healthcare system, along with A$1 billion for more free-of-charge public mental health services.
Would open an additional 50 free urgent care clinics to ease pressure on hospitals.
Liberal-Nationals:
Has matched Labor's A$8.5 billion funding boost to Medicare, pledged A$400 million for youth mental health services, and plans to double Medicare-subsidised psychology sessions to 20 from 10.
ECONOMY
Labor:
Would give taxpayers a one-off, instant A$1,000 deduction for individual work-related expenses and cut student debt by 20%. It also passed legislation to cut the lowest marginal tax rate before calling the election.
Liberal-Nationals:
Has vowed to undo Labor's tax cuts and instead introduce an offset that would let taxpayers earning up to A$144,000 receive up to A$1,200 in tax relief.
Would lower fuel costs by A$0.25 per litre (0.26 gallon) for 12 months by reducing government duties.
Wants to shrink the public service by 41,000 jobs through a hiring freeze and natural attrition, which it estimates would save A$7 billion each year.
ENERGY
Labor:
Committed A$2.3 billion to subsidise household batteries to store solar power and pledged to extend rebates on energy bills for households and small businesses.
Announced an A$2 billion increase in clean energy technology funding through its green bank to achieve a majority-renewables grid, which would be backed up by power from gas, batteries and hydropower.
Liberal-Nationals:
Aims to bring down gas and electricity costs through a reservation scheme forcing liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters on Australia's east coast to sell a portion of their uncontracted gas into the domestic market.
Pledges to cut "red and green tape" for new gas projects and fast-track a decision on extending the life of Woodside's North West Shelf LNG plant.
Long term, wants to build a nuclear industry with seven plants across the country. Nuclear power is currently banned in Australia.
DEFENCE
Labor:
Has not pledged any new defence funding, pointing to an existing commitment to an A$50 billion increase over the next decade that would boost spending to 2.3% of gross domestic product from 2%.
Liberal-Nationals:
Would spend A$21 billion more than Labor over five years to reach 2.5% of GDP within five years and 3% within a decade. Has pledged A$3 billion to acquire extra joint strike fighter jets.
MIGRATION
Labor:
Has not announced any election pledges specific to migration.
Liberal-Nationals:
Promises to cut the permanent migration programme, now at 185,000 per year, to 140,000 for two years, then 150,000 in year three and 160,000 in year four.
Also would cut net migration by 100,000 below Labor's yearly levels and reduce the number of international students commencing at public universities by 30,000 per year.
($1 = 1.5635 Australian dollars)
(Reporting by Sam McKeith and Christine Chen in Sydney; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
