Sunday, November 27, 2005

The Election Is On

It's official I just heard it on Joe FM here in Edmonton. An attack radio ad by Laurie Hawn the Edmonton Centre Conservative candidate against the Minister of Security and only Liberal MP in Alberta, Anne Mclellan.

Anne's seat is the one to watch By Paul Stanway

The ad has a couple talking about how the Liberals are soft on crime....thats their messaging for the begining of the election oy, shmucks....and the tag line....its time for a change....obviously listening to the polls.....So there it is folks, not bothering to wait till the shoe drops in the house tommorow the Conservatives are off and running......

the big prize for the Conservatives would be Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan's seat in Edmonton Centre.William McBeath, Conservative organizer in northern Alberta, believes high-profile candidates such as Rona Ambrose will help Laurie Hawn in his second attempt to unseat McLellan. Hawn has been campaigning for a rematch ever since losing to McLellan by just 93 votes the last time.

McBeath is a neophyte organizer and BloggingTory; Noise from the Right "In 2004 I graduated from the University of Alberta School of Business with a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Marketing. I work as a political organizer for conservative organizations in the Edmonton and Northern Alberta region."

It is obvious that Alberta is not a serious campaign site for the Conservatives, as they focus their efforts in Ontario. Leaving the campaign to defeat Anne Mclellan to a recent graduate from the U of A, shows either chutzpah or severe underestimation of Landslide Anne's political machine.

Kilgours seat is the other Liberal seat up, but as Kilgour was a Conservative turned Liberal turned Independent, his seat is far more likely to go Tory than Liberal, unless the Liberals really put $$$ and workers into the campaign. Again the Tories must think they have this one in the bag to leave it to the 'kid'.

However there are still two races that could change the dynamic in Alberta, especially if the Tories and Liberal fail to put the effort in here. And from their web page the Liberals are the only party that still has to nominate candidates in Alberta!

Peter Goldring's seat in Edmonton East is being contested by NDP candidate Arlene Chapman who has credentials and public profile. Along with support from the provincial NDP machine to work for her, this is a race to watch. This seat was the only one ever won by the NDP federally. And it has been held by the NDP provincially. Since it includes the provincial riding of Calder, which went NDP provincially, the base is there to unseat Goldring.

The other race is Edmonton Strathcona, where the NDP doubled their vote last election and matched the Liberals but were unable to unseat Rahim Jaffer. This time their candidate is Linda Duncan an environmental lawyer.

The Liberals recycled a former MLA last time, and rumour has it will be their candidate again. This was a neck and neck race between the Liberals and NDP, which polled more votes total than Jaffer, but by splitting the vote, he won.

The question in Redmonton is can the NDP use the voter apathy of the Conservatives and effectively counter the Liberal use of 'fear factor' of the Harper to gain votes from the Liberals to win these seats. Or will these seats go Tory because of strategic voting for the Liberals.

Well that's what makes elections exciting, even in good old predictable Alberta.

1 comment:

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