Sunday, November 26, 2006

The Biggest Losers


In the race to be the guy to replace Ralph. Lyle Oberg and Mark Norris.


FINAL RESULTS (courtesy The Invisble Hand)
11:45pm:
Dinning 29,470 (30.2%)
Morton 25,614 (26.2%)
Stelmach 14,967 (15.3%)
Oberg 11,638 (11.9%)
Hancock 7,595 (7.8%)
Norris 6,789 (6.9%)
Doerksen 873 (0.9%)
McPherson 744 (0.8%)
Total: 97,690



Lyle Oberg ran the race with all the self assured bravado of being in second place. That bravedo and confidence was a case of believing his own press.Unfortunately through out this campaign Oberg created nothing but bad press and on Saturday night the reality of that came through loud and clear.

As I write this, Lyle Oberg has finished fourth, and is off the final ballot. He was ashen, looking like a 10-year-old who has just discovered his bike was stolen. Edmonton Journal Legislature Reporter Graham Thompson

And all those PC memberships that the Building Trades bought for their membership to support Oberg added to his self delusion. And in the end made little difference as I predicted.

Mark Norris had lost his seat last provincial election not a great place to run from, especially when he had been a cabinet minister. And despite rallying the Edmonton Conservative business community, with constant propagandizing from his biggest cheerleader the Edmonton Sun, he actually came in behind the only Red Tory in the race, his fellow Edmontonian David Hancock. Like Oberg he believed his own press.

That makes Oberg and Norris the biggest losers.

While Stelmach came in third his numbers are so low he is neither a king maker nor a spoiler. He is however a rich widow that the two princes left in this race will come courting.Edmonton Journal Legislature Reporter Graham Thompson agrees with my initial assessment of Stelmach.

Some of the biggest cheers of the night came from Ed Stelmach's supporters, who were overjoyed their guy finished third and is on the second ballot. But third place is the booby prize. It's hard to imagine Stelmach bouncing back when he's so far behind.

But as usual with the Tories, some continue to live in their own fantasy worlds. Like Oberg and Norris did. Stelmach thinks he stands a chance on the third ballot, despite it obviously being a two way race between two conflicting ideologies in the party.Stelmach not quitting

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Stelmach is no Third Way. And he should bow out gracefully.And for the good of the party endorse Dinning. Though frankly I have never been one to give one hoot for the good of the Party of Calgary. But that is the realpolitick that faces Stelmach and the other losers.

With a Morton win the old Reform party will consoldiate its rule in Edmonton and Ottawa.
And woe to the party and Canada. If that happens, until the next provincial election, the other big losers will be you and I.

Morton's strong second-place showing could be seen as surprising for a rookie MLA who's never held a cabinet post and was only elected in 2004.However, the former senator-in-waiting has been thumping the war drums against the federal government for years on several fronts, and had deep roots to the former Reform and Canadian Alliance parties.He's also backed by many Alberta Tory MPs and has been using his network of supporters to build a political machine many analysts believe is only surpassed in size by Dinning's.


Though I personally believe it would be the best thing. A Morton led PC Party will be fractious and split, interncine power struggles between the progressives and the social conservatives will ensue. Causing Progressive Conservatives, liberals, centerists and Red Tories to abandon the party for the Alberta Liberals, their natural home. And with Taft purging the party of one if its most Red Liberals the outspoken trade unionist, Dan Black, he is preparing a home for them.


Peter Lougheed created the PC's as a popular front party of Liberals, Progressive Conservatives and the old Socreds. The later have morphed over the years into seperatists like the old Western Canada Concept, Republicans, Federal Reformers, social conservatives and fundamentalists. With Morton in charge it would be the final death of the last lingerings of the Lougheed era political party. Which is why he endorsed Dinning.

See:

Conservative Leadership Race



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6 comments:

Dylan said...

Do you really think that if Morton becomes leader (and premier) that the Red Tories will go to the Liberals?

If anything, I would predict that if Dinning became leader then Ted and his merry band if morons would go to the AA and the Alberta Liberals would be purged and come over to the PCs.

eugene plawiuk said...

Either way Albertans win. It means the fragmentation of the PC's. A rump right party will pull votes from Dinning PCs and leave the field open to the Liberals and NDP. If Morton wins the PCs go right and as I said the fiscal conservatives and Red Tories, centerists opportunists etc. go to the next best thing the Liberals. Its win win for Alberta democracy either way and death of the PCs the way the Socred collapsed.

icerider said...

The race for the leadership of the Alberta PCs is now just that, a sprint to the finish. And after Saturday's vote, the choices have solidified somewhat.
We can either choose the candidate of the status quo, the candidate who surrounded himself with the usual well-heeled, backroom and corporate insiders who will stay the current course.
Or we can opt for the candidate of the past we never had, the candidate who curries favour only with those who thinks as he does that we should become narrow-minded, inward and isolated from the any influences he deems are dangerous or troublesome.
But there is clearly now a third option.
Ed Stelmach represents all that is good about all of Alberta and all Albertans -- rural and urban; newcomers to Wild Rose Country and those descendants of our proud pioneer heritage; those enjoying the benefits of the Alberta Advantage and those still struggling to take their place.
Ed has taken the time to look at all the issues -- economic, social and political. He knows Alberta's future promise rides not on defining winners and losers, insiders and outsiders, who's for us or against us, but rather on what unites us all in a diverse, modern province and what makes us stronger.

eugene plawiuk said...

Sorry guy the only good Tory is a suposiTory. Your anti-establishment criticism of Dinning applies to the Party as a whole. To much power, too long in power, democracy is ill served by the One Party State. This is the end for the PC's as it was for the Socred when Ernest Manning stepped down. Any leader will be a lame duck like Harry Strom was. A mere transitional leader, as the party goes into political entropy. Perhaps not by the next election, but the decline will show even then. And by the election after the PCs will be in the dustbin of history.

Hailey said...

You've surprised me!

I don't see a win-win here for the left at all.

Health care in Alberta will never be the same if Mr. Morton wins.

How do you see it other than this?

eugene plawiuk said...

Whoever wins has to call an election within a year. In that time there is little damage they can do that has not already been done. And if Dinning wins he needs to call a byelection for a seat, the public then needs to call for and demand a general election.