By Felicity Bradstock - Apr 05, 2025
The aviation industry is increasingly turning to Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) to meet its decarbonization targets, but significant investment and production scaling are required.
While some regions, like Asia, are seeing growth in SAF supply, there are doubts about whether SAF can replace traditional jet fuel at the scale and speed needed to avert climate change.
Achieving net-zero emissions in aviation heavily relies on the successful development and implementation of SAF, alongside other technologies and operational efficiencies.
There is an increasing demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as airlines worldwide strive to decarbonize operations. Aviation is a hard-to-abate industry, meaning that it is difficult to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions associated with aviation activities. However, airlines around the globe are increasingly incorporating SAF into their fuel mixes to reduce emissions, with many planning to significantly increase the use of SAF in the coming decades. To achieve this, governments and private companies must invest heavily in SAF research and development, as well as production, to advance the industry in line with aviation decarbonization targets.
SAF is an alternative to conventional, petroleum-based jet fuel, produced using non-petroleum feedstocks. It can be blended with jet fuel, with limits between 10 to 50 percent at present, to help reduce aircraft emissions. More than 360,000 commercial flights have used SAF at 46 different airports, mainly in the United States and Europe, according to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
Aviation continues to contribute around 2.5 percent of all carbon emissions and 12 percent of the CO2 emissions from the transport industry. The ICAO aims to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, which it will achieve primarily by increasingly using SAF to fuel flights. The 2021 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge brings together multiple U.S. federal agencies for the purpose of expanding domestic SAF consumption to 3 billion gallons in 2030 and 35 billion gallons in 2050.
Some of the feedstocks used to produce SAF include the food and yard waste portion of municipal solid waste, woody biomass, and fats, greases, or oils. SAF production is in the early stage of development, and there are only three known commercial producers in the U.S. at present; World Energy, Neste, and Montana Renewables LLC.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that SAF could contribute around 65 percent of the reduction in emissions needed by aviation to reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. The IATA expects new technology, electric and hydrogen, to contribute 13 percent of this reduction, infrastructure and operational efficiencies 3 percent, and offsets and carbon capture 19 percent. However, achieving this will require the significant scaling of production, which is expected in the late 2030s, as SAF becomes competitive with fossil kerosene and credible offsets become scarcer.
While there are high hopes for SAF to help decarbonize the aviation industry, a 2024 report from the think tank The Institute for Policy Studies found that the SAF industry is lagging behind climate targets. The report showed that there was “no realistic or scalable alternative” to conventional kerosene-based jet fuels and said SAF are well off track to replace them within the timeframe required to avert dangerous climate change, despite public subsidies. The report stated, “While there are kernels of possibility, we should bring a high level of scepticism to the claims that alternative fuels will be a timely substitute for kerosene-based jet fuels.”
Chuck Collins, the co-author of the report, said, “To bring these fuels to the scale needed would require massive subsidies, the trade-offs would be unacceptable and would take resources aware from more urgent decarbonisation priorities.” Collins added, “It’s a huge greenwashing exercise by the aviation industry. It’s magical thinking that they will be able to do this.”
In the U.K., 50 percent of all agricultural land would need to be given up to sustain current flight passenger levels if jet fuel was entirely replaced, according to the report. This demonstrates the significant difficulties in scaling SAF production.
By 2030, global demand for SAF is expected to reach 17 million tonnes per year, equivalent to between 4 to 5 percent of total jet fuel consumption, according to the World Economic Forum. This would require an estimated $19 to $45 billion in investment to achieve.
However, while some regions of the world are falling behind, others are making strides in SAF development. In Asia, the SAF supply is expected to outpace regional demand in 2025 and 2026 as new production facilities open. This is expected to drive down prices, something the aviation industry has long been waiting for. At least five SAF projects in Asia, outside of China, have commenced or are expected to start production this year. However, the compulsory use of SAF in the jet fuel mix is currently non-existent across Asia, with the first compulsory use of SAF beginning in 2026, as Singapore and Thailand enforce a 1 percent mandate. South Korea will introduce a 1 percent SAF mix in 2027, and Japan has a 10 percent mandate for 2030.
There are high hopes for the expansion of the SAF industry and the increased use of SAF in the aviation fuel mix. The growth in SAF production is expected to support the decarbonization of the hard-to-abate aviation industry in the coming decades. However, while the aviation sector is optimistic about this shift, others are more doubtful that SAF can be scaled at the level required to significantly drive down emissions.
By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com
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