Walmart's pay change for entry-level employees another signal of easing labor market

Brooke DiPalma
·Reporter
Fri, September 8, 2023

Walmart's (WMT) updated pay structure sent another signal to Wall Street that the labor market appears to be shifting.

In mid-July, Walmart changed the way it pays entry-level workers. Stockers and personal shoppers for online orders who join the Walmart workforce now make the same starting wage as cashiers — about $1 less per hour than the starting wage for those roles three months ago. Pay for existing workers did not change.

The world's largest retailer said it updated its pay structure to be "more consistent" across jobs and to create "new opportunities for associates to gain new skills from experience across the store," Anne Hatfield, a Walmart spokesperson, told Yahoo Finance. Hatfield added that nearly 50,000 employees received a wage increase following the change.

"This news does indicate the labor market tightness is easing more broadly," Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe wrote in a note, adding: "We don't believe that this change will have a material impact on Walmart's payrolls."

A Walmart worker organizes products at a Walmart store in Teterboro, New Jersey, U.S., October 26, 2016. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz

To some on Wall Street, the move suggests Walmart now has a leg up on workers, setting a different tone than earlier this year when it hiked its average hourly wage to $17.50 as companies struggled to attract enough staff.

The tight labor market also led other major retailers such as Home Depot (HD) to announce billion-dollar investments in wages earlier this year. But that may no longer be the norm going forward, as Walmart is seen as a bellwether for the economy.

As America's biggest private employer, providing nearly 1.6 million jobs in the US, Walmart often sets precedents for other retailers.

"The application rates must be up," Sucharita Kodali, Forrester Research retail analyst, told Yahoo Finance. "This will definitely trickle over to other parts of retail."

Other signs of slowing wage growth are emerging too. As Yahoo Finance's Myles Udland reported on Friday, wage gains for job switchers also point to an easing labor market.

The three-month average of annual wage growth for job-hoppers dropped to 5.6% in August. That's down from 8.5% in July 2022, according to data from the Atlanta Fed.

"We expect this labor market rebalancing to continue," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month.

Meanwhile, Walmart stock continues to get a boost from investors, up nearly 20% from a year ago as consumers turn to the retail giant for value.

In the retail giant's second quarter earnings, the Arkansas-based chain posted same-store sales that rose 6.30%, more than the 4.04% expected.

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Brooke DiPalma is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @BrookeDiPalma or email her at bdipalma@yahoofinance.com.

New union at Werner/ECM New Jersey operations files complaint with NLRB
John Kingston
Fri, September 8, 2023

The union representing a small number of workers at Werner subsidiary ECM have filed an action against ECM with the National Labor Relations Board. (Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)

The relationship between the newly elected union and a Werner Enterprises subsidiary is off to a rocky start.

Local 152 of the United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) union, voted in late last month to represent 26 workers across three locations of Werner subsidiary ECM Transport, on Wednesday filed an unfair labor action charge against ECM with the National Labor Relations Board.

Although the details in the charge are not available on the NLRB website without a request under the Freedom of Information Act, FreightWaves has obtained a copy of the charging letter through the union.

The complaints made by the UFCW are not lengthy but their significance may be in how rapidly they were filed — less than two weeks after the union representation victory on Aug. 24. That may not bode well for a contract to ever be agreed upon by the union and ECM/Werner.

When the workers at ECM voted to be represented by the UFCW, it was the first union at Werner (NASDAQ: WERN).

In the letter, UFCW said workers who voted in favor of the union saw their hours reduced and regular shifts were eliminated. By not engaging with the union on the changes, the UFCW said that “the conduct constitutes a failure to bargain with the union,” citing a section of the National Labor Relations Act.

Mike Thompson, the vice president and director of organizing with the union, said the actions only have occurred at ECM’s facility in Cinnaminson, New Jersey. The workers who voted in favor of the union came from Cinnaminson as well as Hamilton and Piscataway, New Jersey.

“Since the election, they are sending drivers home or just telling them to stay home,” Thompson said in an email to FreightWaves. “The company has cited losing customers and the holiday. If that was the case, it would affect other terminals and it hasn’t.”

Drivers on site “can see loads in other yards that normally come to them” and the drivers among various facilities can see that there is volume at other facilities that have not voted in the union, Thompson said. “The company is punishing them for exercising their rights and we hope the labor board will address this.”

Werner, in a comment emailed to FreightWaves, said “It is unfortunate the union filed a ULP. The charge is completely without merit. We have and will continue to comply with our legal obligations.”

ECM is a regional truckload carrier that Werner acquired in July 2021. The unionization drive by the UFCW at the small concentration of workers was considered significant enough by Werner that CEO Derek Leathers made a personal visit to meet with the workers in New Jersey.

By being a regional truckload carrier, the ECM employees work out of a particular depot, similar to an LTL company, which makes unionization possible. Over-the-road truckload carriers are considered far more difficult, if not impossible, to unionize.

Stellantis sees long road ahead for internal combustion engine cars

Giulio Piovaccari
Thu, September 7, 2023 

 A Stellantis sign at the entrance of the carmaker's factory in Hordain, France

MILAN (Reuters) - Carmaker Stellantis believes internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles could be on the road until 2050, making it necessary to contain their carbon emissions until they're finally replaced by fully electric ones.

The world's third-largest carmaker by sales, whose brands include Fiat, Peugeot and Jeep, said this week tests it ran with Saudi oil giant Aramco showed 24 types of internal combustion engines in European vehicles it produced since 2014 can use advanced e-fuels without modification.

Stellantis has reaffirmed its commitment to all new car sales in Europe being battery-electric by 2030, although the European Union has excluded cars that run on e-fuels from its 2035 deadline to phase out new carbon dioxide-emitting cars.

Many of the new ICE vehicles being sold by Stellantis between now and 2029 would still be on the roads in more than two decades, Christian Mueller, Stellantis' Senior Vice President, Propulsion Systems for the EMEA region said on Thursday.

"We have to really take care about our inventory fleet," he said, adding that the long lifespan of cars made the development of synthetic e-fuels, which are produced with renewable energy, more important.

"I think 25% of our vehicles are still in use after 20 years. Hence, this kind of exposure time to e-fuels is considerable, very considerable," he told a briefing.

Stellantis estimates that its engine types identified as compatible with e-fuels represent about 28 million vehicles on the roads in Europe, with a potential CO2 emission reduction in the region of up to 400 million metric tons between 2025 and 2050.

Many sceptics however point out e-fuels are not a viable alternative in the short time, due to their low availability and high costs.

Aramco's Transport Chief Technologist Amer Amer said production of e-fuels was expected to start in early 2025 from the group's two demonstration plants in Saudi Arabia and Spain.

Stellantis and Aramco executives said e-fuel availability was expected to increase and their prices to go down, also thanks to favourable taxation in the European Union, "in the future", but without providing more specific predictions.

(Reporting by Giulio Piovaccari; Editing by Keith Weir)

UAW members rally for future of Trenton Engine under shadow of talks with Stellantis

Eric D. Lawrence, Detroit Free Press
Thu, September 7, 2023 

That’s the answer Mike Rouse gives when asked about the biggest issue for him during this contract fight between the UAW and the Detroit Three.

Perhaps it’s understandable.

New product to build at the Trenton Engine Complex might mean Rouse, 52, of Southgate, can stay put and eventually retire from the plant south of Detroit.

In his 24 years with Stellantis and its predecessor companies, Rouse, who works in the machine shop, has moved around, from Trenton Engine to Warren Truck to Belvidere Assembly, back to Trenton, out to Sterling Heights Assembly Plant and back again to Trenton, where he’s been since 2012.

Members from UAW Local 372 who work at the Stellantis Trenton Engine Plant in Trenton listen to speakers inside the union hall before they marched across the street to the plant to rally and protest on Thursday, September 7, 2023.

Moving so much is challenging in many ways, according to the U.S. Army veteran.

“It’s hectic. It’s stressful. It’s trying on everyone. You’re going into a new environment,” he said.

Rouse’s concerns about securing new product for the Trenton Engine Complex were shared by many of his union brothers and sisters in a crowded Local 372 hall on Van Horn Road on Thursday as they rallied, cheering and clapping thunderously at times, before marching to one of the plant gates. Union officials and politicians, including U.S. Reps. Debbie Dingell of Ann Arbor and Rashida Tlaib of Detroit, both Democrats, added their voices in a rousing call to fight for the future of the plant complex they called the “heart of Downriver.”

Outside, cars, trucks and even a motorcycle honked in support as Dave Gerbi, the local president, led a familiar chant, “We are the union. Mighty, mighty union.”

Melissa Holman of Local 372 joins in with others chanting a rallying cry in front of the Stellantis Trenton Engine Plant in Trenton on Thursday, September 7, 2023. The workers want a fair contract and listen to speakers from politicians to UAW leaders.

The complex is made up of two plants, north and south, but only the south side is currently producing engines, on two shifts. The north side was decommissioned within the last year and now serves as a warehouse, with about 140 nonunion workers, Gerbi said.

Trenton South builds the 3.6-liter V-6 Pentastar Classic used for the Dodge Charger, Challenger and Durango; the Chrysler 300; the older version of the Ram 1500 pickup, referred to as the Classic, and the Ram DX Chassis Cab for the Mexican market, according to a company website, which noted that a Pentastar Upgrade engine for the Chrysler Pacifica minivan built at the north plant was to be transitioned to the south plant when the north plant was decommissioned. About 760 workers — 630 hourly and 130 salaried — were employed there as of December.

More: UAW members practice picketing: As deadline nears, autoworkers are 'ready to strike'

The complex, which has been producing engines since 1952, has turned out about 45 million engines. But next year, the number that’s slated to be produced, about 137,000 engines, won’t be enough to warrant two shifts, Gerbi said, noting the frustration and potential loss for the workforce unless that changes.

“We are the best in the U.S. as far as quality. We build the best damn engines,” he said.

While much of the attention during these contentious contract talks between the United Auto Workers union and Ford Motor Co., General Motors and Stellantis (owner of Jeep, Ram, Chrysler, Dodge and Fiat), has focused on issues such as wage tiers and cost-of-living adjustments, the plight of this engine plant highlights another key focus for the union. It’s the need to secure a new engine to keep the plant operating into the future and the workers employed, which echoes the need in Belvidere, Illinois, to secure a new vehicle for the idled assembly plant there.

The company has pointed to the ongoing negotiations in regard to questions about product assignments as well as the cost of the electric vehicle transition, which was the reason given when the announcement was made late last year that Belvidere would be idled.

More: Stellantis wants to move Ram truck production from Michigan to Mexico, UAW leader says

Rich Boyer, a UAW vice president and director of the UAW-Stellantis department talks with members inside UAW Local 372 across the street from the Stellantis Trenton Engine Plant in Trenton on Thursday, September 7, 2023.

Stellantis spokeswoman Ann Marie Fortunate provided a statement, when asked about the concerns raised at the rally, once again highlighting the role of negotiations in product allocation decisions:

“Our focus continues to be on bargaining in good faith to reach a new agreement that balances the concerns of our 43,000 employees with our vision for the future. Product allocation for our U.S. plants will depend on the outcome of these negotiations as well as a plant’s ability to meet specific performance metrics including improving quality, reducing absenteeism and addressing overall cost.”

Talks continued Thursday ahead of the expiration of contracts at 11:59 p.m. Sept. 14. Rouse, the Trenton worker, said he’s already gotten his strike assignment in the event workers are on the picket line next week.

Stellantis is expected to deliver its first counteroffer on Friday. On Thursday, GM made its first counter, which UAW President Shawn Fain panned, and Ford was set to deliver its second offer.

John Beattie of Local 212 listens with other members while holding up a sign during a rally and march at UAW Local 372 across the street from the Stellantis Trenton Engine Plant in Trenton on Thursday, September 7, 2023.

Timothy Lucas, 58, of Woodhaven, who has 27½ years in as a toolmaker at the plant, said he expects a strike, given that, as of Thursday, Stellantis hadn’t yet offered a counterproposal to the union's demands.

Nobody wants a strike, he said, but sometimes, “you’ve got to bite the bullet. We’re fighting for the future.” Ending tiers is Lucas’ top priority.

Leyah Jefferson, 56, of Romulus, who has more than three decades of seniority with the company and works in head sub assembly and is also a repair person, said that “preferably, we don’t have to strike.”

She sees a win for the workers in talks as a win for the company, too.

Jefferson said she’s “looking for a happy medium.”

Automaker Stellantis makes counteroffer to United Auto Workers

MICHELLE CHAPMAN
Updated Fri, September 8, 2023 

United Auto Workers members walk in the Labor Day parade in Detroit. Automaker Stellantis has made a counteroffer to the United Auto Workers that includes wage increases in each year of a new four-year contract totaling 14.5%. The raises, which would be for most workers, doesn’t include any lump sum payments. 

AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File

Automaker Stellantis has made a counteroffer to the United Auto Workers that includes wage increases in each year of a new four-year contract totaling 14.5%.

The wage increases, which would be for most workers, don't include any lump sum payments, Mark Stewart, chief operating officer of Stellantis North America, said in a letter to employees.

The proposal by Stellantis, formerly Fiat Chrysler, also includes a $6,000 one-time inflation protection payment in the first year of the contract and $4,500 in inflation protection payments over the final three years of the contract.

In addition, the counteroffer includes boosting hourly wages from $15.78 to $20 for temporary workers and speeding up the progression timeline from eight years to six years for employees who are moving through the pay scale from starting wages.

The proposal from Stellantis, formed in a 2021 merger of Fiat Chrysler and France's PSA Peugeot, is closer to the union's demands of 46% across-the-board increases over four years, but both sides still are far apart. About 146,000 UAW members at the three Detroit automakers could go on strike when their contracts expire at 11:59 p.m. on Thursday.

“We remain committed to bargaining in good faith and reaching a fair agreement by the deadline. With this equitable offer, we are seeking a timely resolution to our discussions,” Stewart said.

In a statement Friday, the union called counteroffers from Stellantis, General Motors and Ford “disappointing,” and said President Shawn Fain will discuss them with members in an online chat Friday afternoon.

On Wednesday Fain warned that the union plans to go on strike against any Detroit automaker that hasn’t reached a new agreement by the time contracts expire.

A strike against all three major automakers could cause damage not only to the industry as a whole but also to the Midwest and even national economy, depending on how long it lasts. The auto industry accounts for about 3% of the nation’s economic output. A prolonged strike could also lead eventually to higher vehicle prices.

Ford's counterproposal offered 9% raises and lump sum payments over four years, while GM's offered 10% plus lump sums.

Chrysler parent Stellantis offers 14.5%, 4-year wage hike to hourly workers

David Shepardson
Updated Fri, September 8, 2023


 A Stellantis sign is seen outside its headquarters in Auburn Hills,


By David Shepardson

(Reuters) -Chrysler parent Stellantis said Friday it offered U.S. hourly workers a 14.5% wage hike over four years in its offer to the United Auto Workers union ahead of a Sept. 14 contract expiration.

The offer is much less than the 46% wage hike being sought by the union. The UAW has said 97% of members voted in favor of authorizing a strike if an agreement is not reached.

General Motors said Thursday it had offered workers a 10% wage hike and two additional 3% annual lump-sum payments over four years. Stellantis is not offering additional lump-sum payments.

Last week, Ford said it had offered a 9% wage increase through 2027 and 6% lump sump payments. It was set to make a new offer on Thursday, a UAW official said.

The Stellantis offer - which did not specify how the 14.5% wage increase would be distributed over four years - is similar to GM and Ford's offers. It would hike minimum pay for temporary workers to $20 an hour - up $4.22 an hour - and reduce the time necessary to reach top wages for permanent autoworkers from eight years to six years.

"This is a responsible and strong offer that positions us to continue providing good jobs for our employees today and in the next generation here in the U.S.," Stellantis North America Chief Operating Officer Mark Stewart said in a letter to employees. "It also protects the company’s future ability to continue to compete globally in an industry that is rapidly transitioning to electric vehicles."

The UAW said on Friday the Stellantis wage offer would not make up for inflation and "leaves workers even further behind" and that it did not include union job security and profit-sharing proposals.

The union's demands include a 20% immediate wage increase followed by four 5% annual wage hikes, defined-benefit pensions for all workers, 32-hour work weeks and additional cost-of-living hikes. GM is proposing to give employees an additional paid holiday.

UAW President Shawn Fain, who represents 146,000 workers at the Detroit Three automakers, said on Thursday GM's offer was "an insulting proposal."

Stellantis is offering $10,500 in inflation protection payments over the four years, while GM is offering $11,000 and Ford $12,000.

(Reporting by David Shepardson; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

GM’s Offer of 16% Pay Hike Ahead of Strike Deadline Is Quickly Rejected by UAW


David Welch
Thu, September 7, 2023



(Bloomberg) -- General Motors Co. made a counteroffer to the United Auto Workers union, proposing a total 16% pay raise for the top wage earners in its plants and a 56% hike for newer employees who make less, the company said in a statement. UAW President Shawn Fain reacted quickly saying the proposal is “insulting.”

The pay raise is slightly higher than what rival Ford Motor Co. offered the union, but is still well short of the 46% raise that would result from the UAW’s opening bid. GM also included $11,000 in inflation protection payments, a shortened period to the top wage and better pay for temporary staff.

GM made the offer with a week to go before the union’s contract with the automaker and rivals Ford and Stellantis NV expires and all companies far apart from Fain’s opening proposal. In addition to a much bigger raise, Fain wants to reinstate guaranteed pensions, cost-of-living allowances and retiree healthcare.

“After refusing to bargain in good faith for the past six weeks, only after having federal labor board charges filed against them, GM has come to the table with an insulting proposal that doesn’t come close to an equitable agreement for America’s autoworkers,” Fain said in a statement. “GM either doesn’t care or isn’t listening when we say we need economic justice. The clock is ticking. Stop wasting our members’ time. Tick tock.”

The GM offer is slightly better than Ford’s proposal, which Fain rejected and said, “insults our very worth.”

The GM and Ford offers do not include retiree benefits, which went away in 2007 for new hires. Workers hired after 2006 get 401K plans.

Fain’s initial proposal brought back retiree benefits, which are a big piece of the added expense for labor that automakers believe would drive up costs by $80 billion over four years.

GM’s offered to give inflation protection with a $6,000 one-time payment and another $5,000 over the life of the agreement. That’s $1,000 less in total than Ford offered.


Both companies give entry-level workers the top wage of about $32 an hour after six years. GM’s offer would get them to a minimum of $28 after four years. GM also offered to recognize Juneteenth as a paid holiday.

GM shares were down 1% at 12:39 p.m. Thursday in New York

Potential UAW strike presents a near-term headwind for auto insurers - JPM

Reshma Rockie George
Thu, September 7, 2023

 JP Morgan Chase & Co. corporate headquarters in New York

By Reshma Rockie George

(Reuters) - J.P.Morgan on Thursday said supply chain disruptions from a potential United Auto Workers (UAW) union strike would cut new vehicle production, drive up used car prices and put pressure on margins in the personal auto insurance business.

UAW is currently in talks with the Detroit Three automakers - Ford Motor, Chrysler parent company Stellantis and General Motors - ahead of the expiration on Sept. 14 of the current four-year labor agreements covering 146,000 workers.

The automakers "represent about 40% of light vehicle auto sales (by units) in the U.S., and IHS Markit estimates that a strike would disrupt North American vehicle production by roughly 75%," J.P.Morgan said.


Higher used-car prices increase coverage limits on auto insurance, making claims more expensive, so insurers are obligated to pay the fair market value of a car if it is deemed destroyed, JPM lead analyst Jimmy Bhullar said.

The brokerage identifies Allstate Corp and Progressive Corp as the insurers with the most exposure to a potential UAW strike, with Allstate more susceptible due to its weaker capital position.

Used-car prices have had the most impact on auto margins in recent years compared to other factors such as higher spare part costs, labor costs, increased litigation, and severe accidents, the brokerage added.

A UAW strike that shuts down the Detroit Three automakers could cost the manufacturers, workers, suppliers and dealers more than $5 billion according to a study by Michigan-based Anderson Economic Group, a consulting firm.

(Reporting by Reshma Rockie George in Bengaluru, Editing by Tasim Zahid)
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GM and Ford are facing a 'nightmare situation' that could be great news for Tesla

Nora Naughton
Fri, September 8, 2023 


LM Otero/Associated Press

• A looming strike is a "nightmare situation" for Detroit automakers.

• Work stoppages and labor cost increases pose setbacks for their EV ambitions.

• Tesla is already having a banner year for both sales and production.

A looming strike by the United Auto Workers union, which represents hourly workers at the Detroit Three car companies, could be great news for Tesla, one analyst says.

The UAW has spent the summer negotiating new contracts with Ford, General Motors, and Jeep-owner Stellantis. The union is asking for historic wage increases, elimination of a tier system implemented during the depths of the recession, cost of living adjustments, and more. If an agreement isn't reached by September 14, some 150,000 UAW workers across the US will go on strike, a move that could cost the industry as much as $5 billion in 10 days.

This is all "a potential nightmare situation for GM and Ford," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a note to clients this month. Any threat to supply would also inevitably diminish year-end production and inventory, chipping away at holiday season deals.

Tesla, which does not use union labor, is situated to benefit from any work stoppage at competitors, especially at a time when the industry is pushing harder into electric vehicles, Ives said.

"Tesla does not face similar issues which speaks to the complexity both GM and Ford face going up against the EV leader Tesla, while trying to satisfy rising union demands," Ives said. "If a strike happens then ultimately production and the EV roadmap could be pushed out into 2024 and delays would be on the horizon at this crucial period for GM, Ford, and Stellantis."

Setbacks come just as Ford and GM are looking to unseat Tesla

Ford and GM have both set lofty goals for electric vehicle production over the next several years, with Farley putting Elon Musk and Tesla directly in his sights when Ford launched the F-150 Lightning last year.

But production slowdowns from a work stoppage combined with potentially large labor cost increases could put the brakes on Detroit's race to beat Tesla at the EV game, Ives said.

Raising the stakes for GM and Ford: Tesla is already having a banner year for both sales and production, on track to hit its nearly 2 million-unit production target by the end of the year. And the long-awaited Cybertruck is expected to add to that success when it hits customers' driveways later this year.

"Farley and Barra both face some tough decisions ahead," he said. "The options around facing a strike OR accepting a major cost intake for the next decade is a dynamic the Street will be closely watching over the next week."

Ford raised pay for thousands of workers just before union contract expires

Julia Shapero
Thu, September 7, 2023 

Ford said it fast-tracked pay raises for nearly 8,000 workers represented by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union over Labor Day, just days before its contract with the union is set to expire.

Under the pay increases, which were negotiated by Ford and UAW in 2019, thousands of workers reached top wage rates with as little as four years on the job, compared to the standard eight years, according to Ford.

The automaker said, on average, UAW-represented Ford employees received a bump of $4.33 per hour, or $9,000 per year.

“These pay raises are an example of Ford’s commitment to improving the lives of our hourly workforce,” said Bryce Currie, Ford’s vice president of manufacturing, in a press release.

“The negotiating teams nicknamed this deal ‘23 Jump Street’ because in 2023 a significant number of UAW-Ford team members would see a jump in pay,” he added. “And we are offering further improvements in the next contract.”

Ford highlighted the pay raises Thursday, just one week before its contract with the union is set to expire. UAW members voted late last month to strike against the Big Three automakers — Ford, General Motors and Stellantis — if they fail to reach a “fair deal” before their contract expires Sept. 14.

Ford is the only member of the Big Three to put forward a proposal so far, suggesting a 9 percent general wage increase over the span of the contract. However, UAW President Shawn Fain slammed the offer last week, saying the “wage proposals not only fail to meet our needs, it insults our very worth.”

UAW is reportedly expecting to receive an offer from General Motors on Thursday, while Stellantis has said it plans to provide the union with an offer by the end of the week, according to Reuters.

Lebanon: What are the intentions of a bolder, stronger Hezbollah?

Scott Peterson

CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR
Thu, September 7, 2023 



In the mind of Hassan, a veteran Hezbollah fighter and missile specialist, the question is not whether Lebanon’s Iran-backed Shiite militia will wage a final, decisive battle against Israel, but when.

“Things have changed; it’s not like before,” says the fighter, a Hezbollah member for 22 years who uses a pseudonym. “Historically, they [Israel] are the ones who have threatened. Now we threaten them – whenever we want, on our timeline.”

Even as Israel today is absorbed by unprecedented political turmoil at home, Hezbollah seems emboldened by its growing strength on the Jewish state’s northern border.

Both sides have built up assiduously for renewed war since their last major conflict in 2006, which lasted 33 days. But that fight was so destructive and costly that, ever since, each has sought to deter the other from dangerous escalation, while carefully calibrating its own moves.

Deterrence and restraint still hold for now, analysts say, and neither side wants all-out war, despite a string of actions in recent months that has raised tensions and the risk of miscalculation to their highest point since 2006.

Yet the deterrence arithmetic may now be changing, suggests the Hezbollah missile specialist.

Hassan scoffs at recent Israeli estimates that Hezbollah can fire 4,000 precision rockets and missiles daily into Israel during the early stages of a new conflict, compared with 100 per day in 2006.

“There is no number – it is unlimited, open,” he says of the capacity of Hezbollah’s current missile arsenal, which analysts note has advanced considerably – with Iran’s help – in scale, precision, range, and punch.

Hassan speaks calmly and confidently, but with tired eyes. Incongruously, for a militant whose life has been devoted to attacking the power of the United States and its Israeli ally, he wears a bright red U.S. Polo Association shirt with an American flag patch.

“Hezbollah is working around the clock when it comes to technology,” he says. “When one group goes to bed, another group goes to work.”

Words versus deeds

Amid months of tit-for-tat provocations – with Hezbollah poking its Israeli foe – it is an article of faith among the Lebanese Shiite fighters that war is coming.

Veteran fighters proudly tell the Monitor about their many expectations for any future conflict – including “surprises” such as the destruction of Israeli airports, the neutralizing of Israel’s air superiority, and even a ground advance to seize territory.

But Hezbollah’s moves to repeatedly prevent escalation, analysts say, indicate little appetite now for all-out war among the leadership – or in Iran.

“Your ardent Hezbollah guy would argue that fighting Israel is more important than worrying about your neighbor’s house being blown up in another war,” says Nicholas Blanford, a Lebanon-based senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a U.S. think tank.

“But pragmatically, the Hezbollah leadership knows that if they are seen as responsible for starting a war that is going to turn Lebanon into a car park, there is going to be a huge backlash against them, not just from Christians and Sunnis and Druze, but from their own [Shiite] constituency,” says Mr. Blanford, author of the book “Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah’s Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel.”

“They are pushing the envelope more now, but they are very much keeping it within limits. At the end of the day, Hezbollah does not have leeway to go and start a war with Israel; that’s the choice of Iran,” says Mr. Blanford.

“The Iranians are not going to be happy if Hezbollah triggers a massive war with Israel” over a minor border dispute, “because the Iranians invested all this time, effort, weaponry, and money in Hezbollah to serve as a deterrent for its own interests,” including its nuclear program.

Indeed, Iran would appear to have little immediate interest in a Hezbollah-Israel battle: A U.S.-Iran deal is reportedly in the works to free five Iranian American dual nationals held in Iran, in exchange for unfreezing $6 billion in Iranian funds. Iran is also beginning to reconcile with U.S.-ally Saudi Arabia, after years of severed ties.

And Iran’s own domestic scene has been troubled in the past year by months of anti-regime protests, an economy damaged by U.S.-led sanctions and by mismanagement, and questions about the succession to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Renewed focus on Israel

Still, Hezbollah is battle-hardened and turning its attention again to Israel, after fighting successfully for nearly a decade in Syria – alongside Iran and Russia – to preserve the rule of President Bashar al-Assad. Morale has notably improved since the hardest days of the Syrian entanglement, when the flow of Iranian money was tight and some fighters questioned a mission not targeted at Israel.

When Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned Hezbollah last month that Israel would return Lebanon to the “Stone Age” in any new conflict, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah replied within days, highlighting Israel’s internal turmoil and boasting that “all available evidence” indicated that Israel, too, would be “returned” to the Stone Age.

“We definitely have no problem with what is happening in Israel; we are watching very closely,” says a ranking Hezbollah officer reached in a tiny village in southern Lebanon, who gave the name Ahmad. Wearing a blue polo shirt and with the sunburned arms of a farmer, Ahmad laughs when asked to compare Hezbollah’s readiness now to 2006.

“Today the game has changed. The Israelis can’t come here to this village and not pay a price,” says Ahmad. “Don’t misunderstand me. The Israelis are a military superpower; they have air superiority. We understand that real well. We know that the Israelis have 2,000 targets already in their pocket, if things happen. But we have 2,500 targets in Israel.”

He says Hezbollah will certainly “fight these people [Israel] again, and fight to the end,” but only on the orders of Mr. Nasrallah, the leader to whom, Ahmad says, he and all his family give “blind loyalty ... to the last breath.”

“We are not trying to scare anybody; we’re just telling the facts of what will happen ... if this war is renewed,” says Ahmad. “In 2006, we used to launch missiles that put holes in walls. This time, if they hit one building in Dahiya [Hezbollah’s southern Beirut stronghold], we will hit two buildings in Tel Aviv.”

Preventing escalation

Such tough talk belies moves by both sides to swiftly stop the kind of escalation that could lead to war.

“One reason we surmise that neither party actually wants a large-scale conflict is that both Hezbollah and Israel have made clear efforts, in response to previous provocations, to contain the spiral and try to avoid things getting out of control,” says David Wood, the Lebanon analyst in Beirut for the International Crisis Group.

Hezbollah’s moves “are all pretty meaningless stuff, but they are designed to anger the Israelis, which is working,” says Mr. Blanford of the Atlantic Council. He notes that a barrage of 34 rockets fired into Israel last April was “amateurish by design,” with little real impact that would “make a big noise, but ... limit the potential for damage in Israel that could result in an escalation.”

Hassan, the missile specialist, dismisses chances of the Shiite militia taking advantage of the political turmoil in Israel to attack now.

“Hezbollah is waiting for Israel to get weaker and weaker,” he says. “If we attack them now, it makes them strong, because it will unify them.”

A new museum’s message

Similar confidence is on display at a Hezbollah museum that opened last week in the hills above Baalbek, an ancient Phoenician and Roman city in the Bekaa Valley. The museum is built on a site where Israeli commandos landed by helicopter for a brief mission in 2006 and took selfies.

Outside is an array of captured Israeli equipment, including tanks, as well as Hezbollah’s own camouflaged fast-attack boats, drones, and three SA-6 surface-to-air missiles.

Hezbollah and Lebanese flags whip in the wind, and the hot summer air is rich with the scent of freshly laid and watered turf. Visiting families place small children on tanks for photos; one father shows his daughter how to operate a heavy machine gun.

“What you are looking at here is all hardware of Israelis that we captured, and made a playground for our children,” says a uniformed, bearded Hezbollah officer at the site, who gave the name Jibril. “What is here is a fraction of the capability we have now – that is the message.”

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DRUZE REVOLT
Syrians tear down poster of Assad in Sweida as protests swell
Reuters
Fri, September 8, 2023 

People take part in a protest in Sweida

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Demonstrators in the southern Syrian city of Sweida tore down a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad on Friday as anti-government protests that began three weeks ago swelled with crowds coming in from surrounding villages.

In footage posted on activist pages, a group of men could be seen ripping a banner portraying Assad's face that was hanging above the local branch of the Farmers' Union.

They then proceeded to weld shut the doors of the offices.

Criticism of Assad has been growing in Sweida since demonstrations began in mid-August over the removal of fuel subsidies, the latest in a string of measures that have put a strain on people suffering from an economic meltdown.

Sweida is capital of a province of the same name that is home to most of Syria's minority Druze sect. The city remained in government hands throughout the civil war and was largely spared the violence seen elsewhere.

Open criticism of the government has been rare in government-controlled areas of the country, but the economic situation has prompted public discontent that is increasingly directed at Assad.

In Sweida city, hundreds gathered in Karama Square on Friday as the protests, carrying the multi-coloured Druze flag.

"We raised our voices and Assad ran in fear!" the crowds chanted. "Hey Bashar, we don't want you!"

Earlier this week, demonstrators tore down a portrait of Bashar's father, former President Hafez al-Assad, that had been hanging on a government building and smashed a bust of his head, slapping it with their shoes.

Residents of other government-held parts of Syria - where restrictions are tighter - have made more discrete gestures of protest to avoid detection by government forces.

(Reporting by Maya Gebeily; Editing by Frances Kerry)

Exclusive-Kurdish-led Syria force vows to meet tribal demands after clash

Thu, September 7, 2023 

The head of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazloum Abdi, speaks during an interview on Zoom with Reuters

By Maya Gebeily

BEIRUT (Reuters) - The head of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) pledged to meet Arab tribal demands in eastern Syria and fix "mistakes" he said had been made in administering the region, seeking to defuse tensions that fuelled days of deadly fighting.

Scores of people have been killed since Arab tribal fighters revolted against the SDF in Deir al-Zor last week, the first such uprising since the Kurdish-led force drove Islamic State from the region more than four years ago with U.S. support.

Widely seen to reflect simmering Arab grievances, the revolt has prompted U.S. efforts to de-escalate, with the potential for Islamic State or President Bashar al-Assad to take advantage of any sustained conflict.

In an interview with Reuters, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi said he had met tribal leaders and would honour their request to release dozens of local fighters who had revolted and been detained as the SDF quelled the unrest.

"We have a decision to issue a general amnesty for those involved," he said. "We already released half that were arrested, and we will release the rest," Abdi said in a video-call from northeast Syria.

Abdi promised to host a wide-ranging meeting with Arab tribal notables and other representatives from Deir al-Zor to address longstanding grievances, from education and the economy to security.

Arab residents have complained about the Kurdish-led administration, saying it discriminates against them and does not give them their share of the region's oil wealth.

Asked about how he was planning to address grievances, Abdi broadly acknowledged "flaws" in how inclusive local councils were of various tribes.

"There are gaps, and there were mistakes on the ground," he said.

'OPEN' TO CRITICISM

Spearheaded by the Kurdish YPG and including Arab fighters, the SDF has been a major partner for the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State. It holds a quarter of Syria including oil fields and areas where some 900 U.S. troops are deployed.

Abdi pledged to restructure both the civilian council governing the province and the Deir al-Zor Military Council, an Arab detachment of the SDF, to make them more "representative of all the tribes and components in Deir al-Zor".

The fighting erupted after the SDF arrested the council's head, known as Abu Khawla, on charges of corruption and other violations. His tribal allies rose up in response.

The coalition called for an end to the violence, saying distractions from the fight against Islamic State increased the risk of its resurgence, and senior U.S. officials visited the area on Sunday.

Abdi said the SDF would not withdraw from the area.

"We are open to all criticisms, we will study them all and we will overcome them... and the result will be the return of SDF with all its components in an even stronger way," he said.

He also accused the Syrian government of a role in fomenting the trouble, saying his forces had arrested fighters linked to Damascus who had joined up with the tribal rebels, and that they would not be released through the general amnesty.

(Reporting by Maya Gebeily; Editing by Tom Perry and Nick Macfie)

Britain’s second-largest city effectively declares itself bankrupt amid $950 million equal pay claims

Rob Picheta and Catherine Nicholls, CNN
Wed, September 6, 2023

Darren Staples/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Britain’s second-biggest city effectively declared itself bankrupt on Tuesday, shutting down all nonessential spending after being issued with equal pay claims totaling up to £760 million ($954 million).

Birmingham City Council, which provides services for more than one million people, filed a Section 114 notice on Tuesday, halting all spending except on essential services.

The deficit arose due to difficulties paying between £650 million (around $816 million) and £760 million (around $954 million) in equal pay claims, the notice report says.

The city now expects to have a deficit of £87 million ($109 million) for the 2023-24 financial year.

Sharon Thompson, deputy leader of the council, told councillors on Tuesday it faces “longstanding issues, including the council’s historic equal pay liability concerns,” according to the United Kingdom’s PA Media news agency.

Thompson also blamed in part the UK’s ruling Conservative Party, saying Birmingham “had £1 billion of funding taken away by successive Conservative governments.”

“Local government is facing a perfect storm,” she said. “Like councils across the country, it is clear that this council faces unprecedented financial challenges, from huge increases in adult social care demand and dramatic reductions in business rates incomes, to the impact of rampant inflation.”

“Whilst the council is facing significant challenges, the city is very much still open for business and we’re welcoming people as they come along,” she added.

A spokesperson for UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told reporters on Tuesday: “Clearly it’s for locally elected councils to manage their own budgets.” The spokesperson added that the government has been “engaging regularly with them to that end and has expressed concern about their governance arrangements and has requested assurances from the leader of the council about the best use of taxpayers’ money.”

The council’s leader John Cotton elsewhere told the BBC that a new jobs model would be brought into the council to tackle the equal pay claims bill.

The multicultural city is the largest in central England. It hosted last year’s Commonwealth Games, a major sporting event for Commonwealth countries, and is scheduled to hold the 2026 European Athletics Championships.