By 2100, more than 80% of amphibian species in and around the Pantanal will lose suitable habitat
A study by Brazilian and Swiss researchers predicts that even in an optimistic greenhouse gas emissions scenario, 99% of the area of the Upper Paraguay River Basin will be lost
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo
image:
The barramundi (Scinax squalirostris) could disappear from the Pantanal by 2100
view moreCredit: Diego Santana
A study published in the Journal of Applied Ecology shows that the Upper Paraguay River Basin, which includes the Pantanal and its surroundings, could lose almost all of the areas suitable for anuran amphibians (toads, frogs and tree frogs) by the end of the century.
By cross-referencing a database on species locations in the region with climate projections for 2100, researchers from Brazil and Switzerland also concluded that more than 80% of the species in this group will lose suitable habitat.
According to the projections, in the optimistic greenhouse gas emissions scenario, in which current levels are maintained, 99.87% of the basin would experience local extinctions. In the pessimistic scenario, in which emissions increase, 99.99% of the region would suffer from species loss.
The first author of the study was Matheus Oliveira Neves, who conducted the research as part of his doctoral studies at the Federal University of Mato Grosso (UFMT) in Brazil.
According to the research, the integral conservation units, which represent only 5.85% of the territory, protect on average less than 5% of the geographical distribution of amphibians.
In 2022, the United Nations (UN) Convention on Biodiversity recommended that 30% of the Earth’s surface be covered by protected areas by 2030 as a strategy to reduce species extinction.
The current rate is 17% and includes both conservation units and indigenous lands.
Given the data on amphibian biodiversity, the authors of the study propose the creation of new conservation units in the Upper Paraguay River Basin, in places that will be more suitable in the future for this group of animals, which is highly dependent on humidity.
“Fully protected conservation units are currently doing very little to protect amphibian species in the Pantanal, the world’s largest floodplain. Protected areas need to be expanded, considering the scenario of a hotter and drier future,” says Brazilian researcher Mario Ribeiro Moura, who coordinated the study during his time as a researcher at the Institute of Biology of the State University of Campinas (IB-UNICAMP), supported by FAPESP.
Moura is currently a professor at the Federal University of Paraíba (UFPB). In the study, his group considered two climate change scenarios, following the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In the optimistic scenario, emissions would remain at current levels, resulting in a 2 °C increase in the average global temperature by 2100. In the pessimistic scenario, with emissions rising, the increase would be 4 °C.
More than 4,000 records were used for the 74 known amphibian species from the Upper Paraguay River Basin, which in addition to the Pantanal in Brazil also includes parts of Paraguay and Bolivia.
Possible futures
The few areas that would be suitable for hosting amphibians in the future, in both the optimistic and pessimistic emissions scenarios, are currently located in the north of the Upper Paraguay River Basin, in the transition to the Cerrado (Brazilian savannah-like biome), near Cuiabá (Mato Grosso state), and in the southeast of the region, near Campo Grande (Mato Grosso do Sul state), as well as in the southwest, near the Paraguayan Chaco.
Among the current protected areas, none had higher amphibian richness than expected for the current climate scenario, although six of them (8.2%) had significantly lower richness than expected. The comparison was made with non-protected areas of the same size and shape, chosen at random.
The projections for the future also show a greater gain of species than expected in five of them (6.8%) in the optimistic scenario and in three (4.1%) in the pessimistic scenario. However, two and three (2.7% and 4.1%) in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively, show greater loss of species than expected.
“In summary, only 13.7% of the current protected areas in the Upper Paraguay River Basin have the potential to host more or lose fewer species in at least one future scenario. Most of these areas are indigenous lands,” explains Moura.
Although the researchers advocate the creation of new integral conservation units and the expansion of existing ones, they stress the need to mitigate the impacts of inappropriate agricultural practices and promote the restoration of aquatic ecosystems.
“While the Paris Agreement aimed to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C by the end of the century, we already reached that level in 2024. The change in the economic model, currently based on fossil fuel consumption, needs to be radical to mitigate the impacts of the climate catastrophe on biodiversity and society,” concludes Moura.
About FAPESP
The São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) is a public institution with the mission of supporting scientific research in all fields of knowledge by awarding scholarships, fellowships and grants to investigators linked with higher education and research institutions in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. FAPESP is aware that the very best research can only be done by working with the best researchers internationally. Therefore, it has established partnerships with funding agencies, higher education, private companies, and research organizations in other countries known for the quality of their research and has been encouraging scientists funded by its grants to further develop their international collaboration.
Journal
Journal of Applied Ecology
Article Title
Climate change threatens amphibians and species representation within protected areas in tropical wetlands
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