Understanding the energy transition: How models shape the future
Veit Hagenmeyer (KIT) and Klaus Stierstorfer (University of Münster) receive funding for a Reinhart Koselleck project on critical analysis of energy transition models and their effects
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Professor Veit Hagenmeyer seeks solutions for stable, economical, and secure energy supplies
view moreCredit: Amadeus Bramsiepe, KIT
“Our projections about future energy use are developed using models, and the models are used to make policy. But if we don’t understand how these models work, then we have to believe what we’re told. That’s a dangerous situation,” said Professor Veit Hagenmeyer, head of KIT’s Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics, in explaining the need for a thorough examination of current practices for modeling the energy transition. In the transdisciplinary research project entitled Poetik der Modelle (poetics of models), Hagenmeyer is working with literary scholars Professor Klaus Stierstorfer and Professor Matthias Erdbeer from the University of Münster to examine how energy transition models are not only technical calculations and constructs but also narratives for shaping the future. The DFG is funding the research as a Reinhart Koselleck project for exceptionally innovative, high-risk research with EUR 1 million over a period of 5 years.
Hidden Premises of Energy Transition Models
Technical models are a central tool in energy research. They are used to calculate energy requirements, manage supply networks and inform decision-making in government and business. But their underlying assumptions are often hidden. “Models aren’t neutral. They’re based on assumptions about technology trends, political conditions, and human behavior. Many of these assumptions remain hidden,” Hagenmeyer said, adding that this lack of visibility could cause scientific findings to be uncritically adopted or completely called into question. Aims of the project include revealing the hidden mechanisms of model building, determining which narrative patterns are included in the models, and finding new ways to make energy transition models more transparent, participative, and inclusive.
An important driving force behind this innovative approach was Professor Armin Grunwald, who heads KIT’s Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS) and the Office of Technology Assessment at the German Bundestag. “We often need models when advising policymakers, for example in the German parliament. We need to understand those models, especially their assumptions and premises. If we don’t, our advice could be biased and lead to poor policy decisions,” Grunwald said. Along with Grunwald, Professor Daniel Lang, also from ITAS, is another partner in the project. His expertise in real-world lab research complements the project’s transdisciplinary perspective and helps to ensure that the social dimension of the energy transition is given thorough consideration.
Real-world Labs at KIT Involved
To ensure that the assumptions behind models are not only scientifically convincing but also successful in practice, researchers are trying to simulate future energy systems under conditions that are as realistic as possible. With real-world labs for energy transition research, such as the Energy Lab (Europe’s largest research infrastructure for renewable energy) or the Karlsruhe Real-World Lab for Sustainable Climate Protection (for a participative energy transition), KIT has created an extensive infrastructure that is being integrated into the research project. “So the project isn’t only investigating which assumptions energy transition models are based on, it’s also investigating how real-world labs work as places of scientific and social give-and-take about the models,” Hagenmeyer said. “Real-world labs are test centers for technical scenarios, and as such they’re now becoming objects of scientific analysis themselves. How does the way they’re presented affect thinking about the models implemented there? Which narratives arise when the public interacts with these models?”
Overcoming Reservations about the Energy Transition
“The energy transition is both a technical and a narrative challenge,” Hagenmeyer noted. Accordingly, the Poetik der Modelle research project looks beyond the technical issues of transforming the energy system, beginning precisely where reservations about the energy transition arise: in communicating about a desirable future among scientists, policymakers and the public. “As long as people don’t understand where scenarios about the future of the energy supply come from, the public discourse will be marked by uncertainty, mistrust, and simplistic demands. Our project aims to remove these uncertainties and show new ways for scientists, policymakers and the public to work together to develop viable energy strategies. We can only actively shape the future when we understand how it’s modeled,” Hagenmeyer said.
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