Saturday, November 26, 2005

NDP Election Messaging

Getting results for people...with a common sense compromise.


Just drop the 'compromise', that was yesterdays tag line.

Going into the Election "Getting results for people" works.

Identifying Jack with the Party works, we did that in the 97 election in Alberta identifying the popular party leaders, Pam Barrett with the party. And it worked, people connected the two.

The issue:
Privatization of Health Care.
Klein has made it the issue and put it front and centre on the agenda. The Liberals have not protected public health care from Klein, Charest and Campbell. This gives the NDP the opportunity to differentiate themselves from the Liberals while bashing Harper for his silence.

The other issues:

Ethics and electoral Reform.
The NDP ethics package is an excellent foil to the Liberals and Conservatives. Even without Ed running, he can hit the national hustings promoting the package with his statemans charisma. You get two for one on this Layton and Broadbent. Layton is strong on prop rep and the need for electoral reform stick to that and avoid Torontocentric issues like housing.

The Environment
Not Kyoto but a New Industrial Policy.
Brush the dust off the hybird Green car plan that the NDP, Sierra Club and CAW raised two years ago in the last election.Layton raised it in the house last week, it was a good sound bite. Good stuff saves jobs, ties auto funding to new cars, and creates a Volkswagon for 21st century Canada.
Kyoto nice in Toronto lousy in the West. Useless period won't really impact climate change, just changes the way the numbers are shuffled. Kyoto is old news, we need a made in Canada Sustainable Industry policy, like the Green Car plan. Its a mouthful but it steals the thunder from the Conservatives. Greens are not a factor in this election. However a made in Canada Environment plan could sell well in the West.

Either way its going to be a minority government, Quebec is sewn up with the BQ and Alberta is sewn up with the Conservatives. The latest polls show the battleground is B.C. and Ontario. Even though the Ekos Poll is predicting a Liberal Majority (heavens forbid).

Two Decima polls this past week give us hope that the urge for change by Canadians will result in more votes for the NDP. A poll done for the Ottawa Citizen found:

The second has to do with the dynamic between the Liberal, Conservative and NDP choice.
For months, it’s been clear that a “desire for change” is the major catalyst for rising
Conservative and NDP support. That desire acts as a virtual ceiling that Liberal support seems
unable to penetrate. When people hear that Liberal support is rising and a majority government
may be possible, the desire for change is aroused, and Liberal support starts to drift downward.
So, for months, between 33% and 39% of decided voters indicate they will vote Liberal at the
next opportunity. Maybe enough not to lose the election, but not enough for a convincing win
either. What keeps it from falling below 33% is the other part of the equation: anxiety about a
Conservative government led by Stephen Harper. This anxiety acts as a ceiling for
Conservative support, a floor for the Liberals, and soft NDP supporters are those that have the
most to do with moving the numbers around.

More importantly Decima found that the NDP support has steadily increased in four out of five of its last polls!

Even some died in the wool NDPbloggers are saying the unthinkable.
Time for a change says fellow Edmontonian , Idealistic Pragmatist

"Like James Bow, Andrew Spicer, and Greg of Sinister Thoughts, I'm hoping that the upcoming election will bring us a new Prime Minsister named Stephen Harper"

Oyy Vey. But in the NDP world this is the message that has to get out to pink liberals; either a Liberal or Conservative Minority government, with the NDP holding the balance of power is OK with us. Even a Harper minority would actually have to deal with the NDP and BQ and that would temper their extreme wing with the harsh reality of pragmatic parlimentary politics.

survey: Race tightens More become comfortable with idea of Harper as next prime minister

Ipsos-Reid president Darrell Bricker said yesterday one of the apparent reasons for the declining Liberal support is a backlash triggered by the pre-election strategy of promising billions of dollars in tax cuts and new spending programs.

"It underscores the fact that people believe the Liberals are willing to spend money to buy votes," Bricker said.

"It's one of the things that came out of the sponsorship inquiry, so it highlights the character elements of the Liberals that people don't like.

"For opposition voters, it's throwing a log on the fire for them and steeling their resolve to kick these guys out.

"For people who are voting for the government, it's making them nothing but squeamish."

The poll found that after 12 years of Liberal government, there is a widespread desire for change.

The poll also found a growing number of voters are becoming comfortable with the idea of Conservative leader Stephen Harper becoming prime minister, provided a Tory government is kept to a minority.

Moreover, the poll found the Liberals are in trouble in two key regional battlegrounds: Quebec, where the popularity of the Bloc has surged, and British Columbia, where the Conservatives have suddenly soared in a close three-way contest.

In order not to have the Liberals pull off an eleventh hour Hail Mary pass to win pink liberals from the NDP, Layton has to balance his attacks to against Martin as much as against Harper. He has to remind voters its not who governs but who holds the power in the upcoming Minority government. A plague on both their houses, vote NDP for real change.

Hey Brad just put my cheque in the mail for this advice.

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