Sunday, March 18, 2007

Priming For An Election

The Conservative Party and the PM spent the weekend leaking election threats. On Saturday before the Conservatives election preparation school in Mississauga, the Party leaked this; Tory memo warns of snap vote

No they don't have a mole, this is party strategy tried and true , release your own memo, they did it last election as well.

It was followed up with this in the afternoon when Harper addressed the troops gathered.
Election could come 'at any time,' PM says

But the polls say otherwise;
Poll suggests federal parties at stalemate

While those that are wildly optimistic might take heart with this headline which uses the same poll numbers but suggests the glass is half full. Conservatives maintain lead in poll

The bottom line is that unless the budget is defeated there will be no election. ANALYSIS-Canadian govt survival hangs on Monday's budget

Why? Because Harper would not get a majority. Despite his desperate need to call an election.

Even his right wing allies at the National Post, voice of the Conservatives in print, are pointing out his flaws;
Comment: Harper spends like it's 2005,

If there is no election, then his whole political platform since gaining office will come under scrutiny. And it won't be a pretty picture.

His childcare spaces and wait time priorities are failures. He has revived Liberal programs,
Who's the real flip-flopper? His crime bill will pass, with amendments, and his Clean Air Act will come back with amendments and hard targets. In other words through out the next four months until the summer recess his government will have egg on its face.

Which can only help the opposition.

So besides the budget what could trigger an election that the Conservatives are priming us for? A strong showing by the ADQ and the Liberals in the Quebec election. The former gives Harper seats in Quebec, the latter makes the Conservatives look good in Quebec when they pay for the fiscal imbalance.

Election-ready budget
Toronto Star, Canada - 23 hours ago
Much of the cash will be aimed at Quebec, but other provinces such as Ontario will wind up with more money for post-secondary education and similar ...
Will budget seal the deal for charest? Montreal Gazette (subscription)
Analysis: Budget may add up to majority National Post
Fiscal Imbalance: your questions answered

It's Texas Hold Em until then.
Quebec election tight three-way race: Poll

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1 comment:

Mike said...

I'm really hoping that they are just testing the waters here and won't actually call the election. It's been just over 13 months since we were finished with the last one. I'm calling on individuals to send the leaders of the 5 big political parties a note to say that they don't want the election just yet.