Sunday, April 12, 2020

PRE CORONAVIRUS

China and the environment: a decade in review



A story of growing environmental protection told through ten articles published over ten years by China Dialogue
Article image
Blue skies over Beijing (Image: Alamy)
 
The past decade has been a roller coaster ride for environmentalists in China. December 2009 saw the Copenhagen climate talks fail amid disputes between developed and developing nations. Then, after a brief holiday break, recriminations peaked in the new year. Cao Haili concluded in January 2010 that the failure in Copenhagen gave China “more time for its development” but that “China’s 30-year economic miracle has come at the cost of a rapidly deteriorating environment; this has not been sustainable development”.

These were prescient words; the consequences of the damage to China’s environment become more apparent in 2010. However, lessons were learned, and China set out on a transformative journey to tackle pollution that by 2019 had achieved a stunning turnaround. This has been documented in article after article on China Dialogue. We’ve chosen ten to trace that journey – and hint at what the next decade holds.

2010: Dynamic Data (Ma Jun)

At the dawn of the decade, China’s environmental protection record was cause for concern. Early 2010 saw the publication of the country’s first survey of pollution sources, providing citizens with new information on the state of their environment. Ma Jun, director of the Institute of Public & Environmental Affairs, acknowledged in this comment piece that things were worse than expected. The survey, which took two years to complete, served as a footnote to China’s “pollute first, clean up later” approach to development. The publication was undoubtedly a step forward, but many pollutants such as fine particles were missing, meaning the report’s diagnoses were incomplete – and an opportunity to foresee the oncoming air pollution crisis was missed.

2011: Beijing’s hazardous blue sky (Stephen Q Andrews)

By the winter of 2011, there was no avoiding northern China’s air pollution problem. Widespread smog had turned “air quality” into the first environmental buzzword of the decade, and an analysis by independent researcher Stephen Q Andrews triggered media reports and responses from Chinese experts and officials. Andrews pointed out that Beijing’s air quality measures were inaccurate, as key measures such as PM2.5 and ozone were absent. This became key to the debate. China made sweeping changes to how air quality data was collected and published, and soon Chinese people could check official PM2.5 levels for major Chinese cities on their phones.


(Image: Yin Kuang / ​Greenpeace​)

2012: Shifang: a crisis of local rule (Tang Hao)

The cost of China’s expansive economic growth was more than air pollution. In 2012, the country was shaken by environmental mass protests in Sichuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces over pollution from smelters, paper mills and chemical plants. The protests prompted changes in the management of China’s environment, and that process is a major thread in the story of China’s environmental protection over the last decade. Academic Tang Hao wrote that public clashes with industry and government highlighted problems in local governance, and that greater public participation within the system could resolve the conflicts. “Public participation” in environmental protection became a common term among Chinese environmentalists.

2013: Beijing’s neighbours hesitate at pollution cuts (Wang Jiankun, Wang Xiuqiang, Xu Nan)

In 2013, China published an ambitious plan for tackling pollution that would greatly reduce smog by 2017. The plan’s controls on coal required key cities and provinces to burn less. China pushed ahead with this “energy revolution” – a turning point in global environmental and climate history. But as well as being a major cause of air pollution, coal is China’s most important primary energy source. Three reporters wrote about the challenges of reducing coal use. Local governments, keen to maintain economic growth and tax income, pushed back against the central government’s green agenda, and this dynamic has influenced China’s environmental ambitions and achievements ever since.

2014: Reaction: US-China climate pledge (China Dialogue)

After months of low-key talks, presidents Xi and Obama surprised the world with a joint statement on climate change. Five years after the failure of the COP15 talks in Copenhagen, China made its first international commitment on a timetable to peak carbon emissions, taking steps to bridge the huge disagreement between developed and developing nations on setting emissions targets, and creating a path to the 2015 Paris Agreement and a new climate governance model based on nationally determined contributions. China Dialogue documented how the statement was received. But more importantly, this change in China’s climate stance reflected changes in the environmental and energy sectors at home: a broad green transition designed to tackle air pollution was helping the country re-evaluate its role in global environmental governance.


(Image: US Embassy The Hague/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

2015: China's new silk roads tie together three continents (Brian Eyler)

China’s environmental journey over the last decade has not just been domestic. After three decades of rapid economic growth, Chinese firms could afford to invest overseas, developing markets for Chinese goods and services and acquiring resources to feed the huge Chinese economy. The year 2015 was key to this process, as the Chinese government fleshed out its One Belt, One Road development strategy – later rebranded the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank was also created, founded by China in partnership with other nations, and another landmark in China’s approach to multilateral finance. Bryan Eyler, an expert with the Stimson Center, a US thinktank, wrote an article representative of the hopes, questions and concerns international society had for the BRI, which remains a key framework through which Western observers view China’s overseas footprint.

2016: Solar power dawns on Datong as coal industry declines (Zhang Chun, Liu Yuyang)

Grand green visions and national policies meant changes for ordinary Chinese people too. China Dialogue researcher Zhang Chun and photographer Liu Yuyang documented one local example of this transition: former coal workers in the mining town of Datong finding new jobs in solar power plants built on old mine sites. Similar stories are unfolding elsewhere, and their success or failure will be a key determinant of China’s future energy footprint.

2017: What caused China’s squeeze on natural gas? (Li Jing)

If 2013 saw China declare war on pollution, 2017 saw that war enter a decisive phase. To win back their blue skies, authorities at all levels pushed forward with environmental policies, one of which saw natural gas replace coal for winter heating in northern China. Millions of households were quickly weaned off coal and connected to gas supplies. This was a huge undertaking, and there was no shortage of problems, with many rural households struggling to heat their homes. Li Jing explained that the problems seen in the winter of 2017 also highlighted a difficulty in China’s efforts to tackle smog: who pays for protecting the environment? Is it fair for low-income rural families to shiver so Beijing can enjoy bluer skies?

2018: China reshapes ministries to better protect environment (Ma Tianjie, Liu Qin)

In 2018, the environmental ambition China had shown in the first half of the decade was finally enshrined in the structure of the state. In March that year, the concept of “ecological civilisation” was added to the Chinese constitution, and sweeping ministerial reforms soon followed, with the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and the Ministry of Natural Resources formed to manage and protect China’s environment. In interviews with China Dialogue, experts described the changes as one of the most concrete steps yet taken towards an ecological civilisation, and helping to bring environmental management and policy-making under more unified control. Responsibility for climate change was moved from the National Development and Reform Commission, the state’s overall economic management body, to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment – prompting questions as to whether this would strengthen China’s climate policy.

2019: Waste sorting: an imposed ‘social contract’ with potential (Jiang Yifan)

By 2019, efforts to tackle air pollution had returned China’s skies to blue and smog was no longer the public’s chief environmental concern. That inspiring turnaround from worsening pollution to clear improvements over the course of a decade, was due both to a government that reassessed the relationship between the environment and development, and a public with much higher levels of environmental awareness.

In 2019, the government and the public were again faced with a shared issue: waste sorting. A greener China needs a public that is enthusiastic and disciplined about protecting the environment. But Chinese people are used to the government taking the lead, and complaints were heard when compulsory waste-sorting measures were imposed. In this article commentator Jiang Yifan described waste-sorting as a social contract between government and people: the government imposes responsibilities on the public, but the public has the right to see if the government is fulfilling its own commitments. Will such a contract redefine China’s environmental progress in the coming decade? We are all watching.

The last word: Xie Zhenhua: China’s top climate negotiator steps down (Li Jing)

 As the decade drew to an end, a baton was handed on. China’s special representative on climate change, Xie Zhenhua, stepped down just prior to the COP25 climate talks in Madrid. His career in climate diplomacy had largely paralleled China’s green transition. Li Jing reviewed his work, and in doing so offered a recap of those ten years – an encouraging and thought-provoking read for people concerned with China’s environment, and a story which will shape the next ten.

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Mining expands on Kashmiri rivers despite dire warnings

INDIAN #IMPERIALISM 
#KASHMIR IS #INDIA'S #GAZA

Despite warnings from research commissioned by itself, the government has thrown open mining auctions in Kashmir, threatening the stability of the riverbed, flood control mechanisms, and local livelihoods


A view of the Jhelum in Srinagar [image by: Athar Parvaiz]

Athar Parvaiz, February 17, 2020

The Indian government is in the process of auctioning out approximately 200 blocks in Jhelum river and its tributaries for mining of sand and other minerals. This is despite a recent study warning against large-scale mining operation in the Jhelum, and the advice of an environmental committee against haphazard mining in water bodies.

In 2018, the department of Irrigation and Flood Control (IFC) had asked the Central Water and Power Research Station (CWPRS) to do a detailed technical report covering a host of issues. This was also cited by a World Bank supported study for the Jhelum and Tawi Flood Recovery Project.

“The dredging de-silting/sand mining of the main channel of Jhelum from upstream to Asham is not advisable and may cause difficulties for the flood management. Re-sectioning by increasing the waterway width may possibly be taken up at few places only as recommended in the tour report of CWPRS officers,” the technical report concluded.

The report, CWPRS said, is based on the morphological analysis, site visits and analysis of unsteady flow conditions using 1-D unsteady mathematical model with the data provided by the state engineers including the hydrographs, their lag time of flood initiation and capacity curve for the various lakes.

The World Bank supported study also noted:

“In addition to the works to be included in the interim scheme, CWPRS also recommended that further consideration be given to:


Cessation of dredging of Jhelum River between Sangam and Asham;

Dedication of low lying areas on the left bank of the Jhelum River near the start of the Flood Spill Channel to form detention basins of 49km2 and 44km2) – uncontrolled development in these areas will preclude their utility for flood retention in the future”

Considering the frequent flood threats from Jhelum and its tributaries, the IFC department has a large authority over these water bodies its approval is mandatory for any extraction of resources from them.
Massive auctionsDespite these recommendations, mineral blocks in the Jhelum and its tributaries (which include sand, boulders and gravel) are being auctioned to mineral extracting contractors and companies by Jammu & Kashmir’s Geology and Mining department. By February 10, 2020 sand blocks in Pulwama, Srinagar and Baramullah districts were auctioned against a bidding amount of INR 720 million (USD 10 million) for five years.

Applications for the auctioning process were invited online (from December 21, 2019) for the first time this year at a time when internet connectivity in Kashmir was completely blocked from the first week of August 2019 until the 3rd week of January 2020. Since its restoration, only low-speed (2G) internet connectivity is allowed in the region. Internet was shut down across Kashmir following India’s decision to fundamentally change the semi-autonomous status of the mountainous state of Jammu and Kashmir on August 5, 2019 and its subsequent conversion into a Union Territory (which, under the Indian Constitution, has comparatively limited powers).

Interestingly the reports recommending the limitation of mining were largely conducted during the time that the former state of Jammu & Kashmir was under Governor’s Rule, meaning that the central government is going against the very recommendations that were prepared under it.

The joint director of Geology and Mining Department in Jammu and Kashmir, Imtiyaz Ahmad Khan, said that his department has received written permission from IFC. However, an official of the IFC alleged that the IFC faces a lot of pressure from the government to grant such approvals.

“We are strongly against this extensive mining in Jhelum and its tributaries, particularly in south Kashmir as it can have huge consequences on flood management in Kashmir. But we are not able to assert our authority before the government,” the official said requesting anonymity.

According to the Water Resources Act of Jammu and Kashmir, “The control of the bed and banks of all water sources, navigation channels, intake channels, city channels and flood spill channels together with all works that affect the hydraulic conditions in the State shall be under the Irrigation and Flood Control Department.”

Khan claimed that his department will take environmental and other concerns into consideration when the contractors start the work. “These are the resources required for raising of developmental infrastructure and housing. But we will definitely seek the opinion of experts on this,” Khan said.

But a member of Environmental Appraisal Committee of Jammu & Kashmir, which gives environmental clearance to such projects, said on the condition of anonymity, “We had advised the government during a meeting in December last year that no mining should be allowed in Jhelum and other rivers till there is a basin-wise scientific mining plan as to which area should be declared feasible for mining and which areas should be declared as river sanctuaries.”

“Any mining has to be done in a way so that it doesn’t cause problems in flood management or functionality of water bodies,” he added. Recently, he said, some 160 cases of mining from Jammu region had come to the committee for clearance, “but we didn’t find even a single case worth clearance.” He, however, alleged that the committee faces a lot of pressure to give clearances.

Now that close to 200 blocks are being formally thrown open for mining of minerals in Kashmir, there are apprehensions that large scale mining for sand and other minerals from the Jhelum and its tributaries can lead to severe environmental consequences. Given that the miners will be operating with the permission from the government, it would be hard for environmental activists and media to question them.

The Indian Institute of Technology (ISM), Dhanbad, cites an interesting example of how this works (or does not work) in practice. “Imagine this: a group of reporters are visiting a picturesque creek of a river on the western coast of India and are taking some photos. They are approached within minutes by a menacing gang in a large vehicle who interrogate them on their presence in the area. One of them roars: “who gave you permission to shoot here? We have purchased the entire creek for Rs 28 crore (INR 280 million / approx. 5.1 million USD). We own it now.”

Dominated by non-Kashmiri bidders

Another related issue is that the change in Kashmir’s legal status now means that non-residents of the territory can now buy property in Kashmir and conduct business based on the region’s resources. Earlier, these rights were only with local residents. Most of the mineral blocks auctioned so far, have been bought by companies from outside Kashmir.



A man standing on the bank of a tributary of Jhelum in south Kashmir, Vishu. In autumn and winters, Jhelum’s tributaries have extremely low flows [image by: Athar Parvaiz]

All the 10 sand blocks in Srinagar (on the Jhelum), have been bought by the companies from outside Kashmir for five years against a bidding amount of INR 50 million (USD 0.7 million). In Pulwama, local contractors have successfully bid for 40% of the 36 blocks in the district, the rest going to companies from outside Kashmir with total bidding amount of INR 480 million (USD 6.7 million).

In Baramullah, out of the 35 blocks, 28 blocks have been auctioned by February 10. 19 of the 28 auctioned have been bought by companies from outside Kashmir against a bidding amount of INR 190 million (USD 2.66 million).

Local contractors allege that it is a “huge injustice” to them that natural resources, which provide employment to thousands of households in Kashmir, are now “open for sale” for anybody. “We are not in a position to compete with companies from outside. How can our resources match theirs? Obviously, they manage to buy most of the mineral blocks,” said Bilal Ahmad, a local contractor. Ahmad’s concerns apart, the large-scale auctioning also raises concerns that illegal mineral mining of sand, boulders and gravel that has happened earlier, may now become beyond control.

Engineers in Kashmir’s Flood Control Department are aware of the consequences they are going to face in coming years because of large-scale mining in Kashmir’s rivers. “When you mine intensively in Jhelum and its tributaries, it is certainly going to leave an impact on local ecology as also on flood management in Kashmir,” said an engineer in Irrigation and Flood Control Department requesting anonymity. “For example, when massive exploitation of minerals is done in tributaries of Jhelum, it will increase the velocity of river flow, which, in turn, can result in instant flooding and over siltation in our water bodies such as Wular,” he said.

In recent years, Kashmir has faced many floods notably the devastating floods in 2014 which killed hundreds of people in parts of Kashmir controlled by India and Pakistan and caused losses worth bi
BLUE ECONOMY
Sustainable fisheries management is working, study finds
Data shows management is saving fish populations, but the health of many Asian fisheries remains unclear


David Adam February 6, 2020

A yellowfin tuna breaks the surface of the Pacific Ocean
 (Image: © Paul Hilton/Greenpeace)

Fisheries around the world are in better health than most people realise, according to a new study that suggests many populations are recovering and sustainable management plans are working.

Key fishing grounds in Europe, South America and Africa are among those found to have healthy or improving numbers. But the good news has limits. The status of many unmanaged fisheries, especially those in South and Southeast Asia, are unclear. As global trade continues to increase demand, these regions are most likely being overexploited.

Published last month, the study is the latest comprehensive health assessment of the world’s fish populations. The data paints an improving picture, with many fisheries now able to provide a sustainable catch.
sustainable fisheries, which countries catch the most fish?

“There is a narrative that fish stocks are declining around the world, that fisheries management is failing, and we need new solutions. And it’s totally wrong,” said lead author Ray Hilborn, a fisheries expert at the University of Washington, who led the study. “Fish stocks are not all declining around the world. They are increasing in many places, and we already know how to solve problems through effective fisheries management.”

That 2009 analysis concluded many depleted fisheries were making good progress towards recovery. But the data used only covered about 20% of the world’s catch. In other words, the status of 80% of the fish landed every year across the globe remained a mystery.

Last week’s study is put together by a similar team of researchers and significantly extends the dataset, which now contains information on about half the world’s catch. The results, Hilborn says, show that consumers in the developed world – including in North America and Britain – can now buy many fish species with a clear conscience. “If you want to be very careful, you need to look at exactly what species it is,” he says. “But as a general rule, particularly those of us in the West, we’re largely eating fish that come from well-managed fisheries.”

Buying seafood sustainably

WWF offers consumers a useful pick of country-specific seafood guides.

There are some important exceptions. For example, shrimp is the most popular seafood in the US, and the majority is imported from unmanaged fisheries in Southeast Asia.

“Many of the countries that have made progress domestically still import from countries where the situation isn’t as nice. That is something else we should be conscious of,” says Beth Fulton, a marine scientist with the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Hobart, Australia, who was not involved with the new study.

She adds: “Serious effort has to go into helping nations which do not currently have significant fisheries management capacity to tackle the issues they face, which go beyond a lack of resources.”

Many important fisheries are not included in the new dataset, sometimes because dozens of different species of fish are caught at the same time. That type of fishing activity is more difficult to track as management schemes typically focus on fisheries where a single species is targeted, such as cod or tuna.

Hilborn says: “The unassessed fisheries are largely highly mixed fisheries. They may catch a hundred species in one haul of the net, and you can’t regulate those on a species-by-species basis. So the toolkit for managing those fisheries is going to be different than what we dominantly use in the successes we’ve had so far.”

Unassessed fisheries in India, Indonesia and China represent 30-40% of the world’s fish catch. “China is a big black box. It’s the biggest fishing country in the world. And they have essentially no publicly available assessments of their resources,” Hilborn says.

Steve Palumbi, a fisheries scientist at Stanford University, says some caution is also needed with the data where they do exist. “I’m not as convinced that this shows the universal success of fisheries management schemes,” he says. “Because regional data from the same countries – mostly the US and Canada – show different patterns.” East coast fisheries in both countries have not responded well, whereas west coast fisheries, and Alaska have done better. “It may well be that there has not been enough time for the effect of management to take hold in the eastern fisheries, perhaps because they were so far down to begin with,” he says.

Reg Watson, a marine researcher at the University of Tasmania, says scientists tend to think about fisheries in two distinct ways. “One tries to save the oceans and all its life from the destruction of fishing. While the other tries to focus on the stocks that feed us and provide jobs and support to the millions around the world,” he says. “The typical uncertainty associated with grand assessments of the world’s ocean life leave room for both.”

Focusing on fish stocks might show that a fishery can provide a sustainable supply, he says, but such data don’t necessarily offer a true picture of the health of a marine ecosystem – “like our terrestrial systems they have likely been greatly simplified and now lack much of the diversity and resilience they once had.” Watson adds: “This could be very important in the near future.”

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David Adam is a freelance journalist based near London.

CANADIAN MINERS
Mexico's lithium discovery is a double-edged sword

Lithium holds the promise of accelerating the energy transition but at what cost for Mexico's water resources and national development?


Ann Deslandes February 14, 2020

Mexico's Sonora state has suffered big environmental impacts from
 mining and the discovery of massive lithium deposits will test its
 ability to extract responsibly (image: LuisGutierrez / NortePhoto.com)

With reserves of some 244 million tonnes, lithium deposits discovered by the Canadian company Bacanora in the northeastern Mexican state of Sonora are the world’s largest, containing significantly more than the second-placed Thacker Pass site in the US state of Nevada (178 million tonnes), Mexico’s under secretary of mining Francisco Quiroga claimed in December.

Lithium is an central component in rechargeable batteries used in smartphones and electronic vehicles (EVs), making it critical for the global energy transition. Ganfeng Lithium, China’s largest lithium compounds producer and supplier to Tesla, has already agreed to a joint venture Bacanora to develop the mine in Sonora, which will be Mexico’s first lithium mine.
Did you know...?

As well as electric vehicle and smartphone batteries, lithium is used to manufacture heat-resistant glass and ceramics, industrial greases, and in treatments for bipolar disorder and depression

Chinese companies keen to corner the global EV market, which the Paris-based International Energy Agency estimates will reach 44 million vehicles by 2030.

“Lithium is the new oil”, Víctor Manuel Toledo, Mexico’s Environment Secretary said on announcing the Sonora discovery.

While the metal holds clean energy potential, it comes with pitfalls. The exploitation of lithium, requires huge quantities of water and can have serious consequences for the environment. Its extraction and industrialisation has also ignited vigorous national debates about resource ownership and management in countries including Chile and Bolivia.

Mexico has the added complication of its lithium mine sitting in a region controlled by criminal organisations, which the government has failed to control.

Extraction of the deposits in Sonora’s Bacadéhuachi municipality, which the Bavispe river runs through, are expected to commence in 2022.

China hones in on Mexico’s lithium


“Ganfeng has investments in resources all over the world - China, Australia, Argentina, Ireland and now Mexico,” Joe Lowry, a lithium market expert, told Diálogo Chino. He noted that the company is unable to invest in lithium in the US due to regulations on foreign control of strategic resources.

China currently dominates the EV supply chain, producing close to two-thirds of the world’s lithium-ion batteries. The US produces scarcely 5%. China also controls most of the world’s lithium processing facilities, according to data from Benchmark Minerals Intelligence.

75% of the world's lithium lies in the salty brine deserts of northern Chile and Argentina, and southern Bolivia

Toledo said that the Mexican government is looking to begin manufacturing EVs in state-owned factories. Sonora Economy Secretary Jorge Vidal also said that his government had met with Ganfeng to discuss building a battery factory alongside the mine.

Quiroga said the Bacadéhuachi mine will bring “progress and wellbeing” to Sonora, a state with high rates of corruption and violence.
Security and sustainability concerns

Lowry said the mine’s location is “at best ‘challenging’” from a security perspective. “There are certainly much better places [than Sonora] to invest in a lithium project,” he added.

The mine is situated in an area affected by organised crime, just 98 kilometres from where gunmen suspected of belonging to a drug cartel massacred nine women and children of dual US and Mexican nationality on November 4 last year. According to Reuters, Coparmex--an influential Mexican business organisation, warned that violence is causing investors to lose confidence in the economy.

On November 11, armed robbers stole gold and silver in transit from a Sonoran mine in an incident that served as “an unwelcome reminder of the security risks faced by miners in Mexico,” business news website BN Americas wrote recently.

Furthermore, global lithium prices are volatile, and Mexico’s mining sector in particular has struggled to attract investment for over a decade.

Water Shortages and Chemical Spills

Sonora is already facing a desertification crisis and is ranked as having ‘Extremely High Baseline Water Stress’, according to the World Resources Institute. This means the population is already using more than 80% of their available water supply.

it’s a resource that we could be taking advantage of here in Mexico, both as an export and as a source of cleaner energy

Ricardo Durazo, coordinator of environmental campaign group Fridays for Future in Sonoran state capital Hermosillo, told Diálogo Chino that water supply is a critical environmental issue in the state. The discovery of the lithium deposits is “a double-edged sword” he said.


“Just as lithium is indispensable for the creation and development of renewable energies, it is also a mineral that is particularly polluting” he said.

There lithium extraction process has an inherent risk of contamination. In Tibet in 2016, where lithium has been mined since the 1960s, initially for use in industrial greases and anti-depressants, a toxic chemical leak from the Ganzizhou Rongda Lithium mine killed fish and cattle that local farming communities depended on.

Hydrochloric acid is used in lithium processing to filter waste products from the brine, rock or clay. This has generated conflict with communities living near mines in Argentina and Chile, where it has polluted local water sources. Lithium extraction can also affect soil and air quality.


“I think it’s a resource that we could be taking advantage of here in Mexico, both as an export and as a source of cleaner energy,” said Durazo. “But it will depend on the politicians, the authorities and the mining companies to implement environmental protection standards.”

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Ann Deslandes
Ann Deslandes is an Australian freelance journalist and writer based in Mexico City


You can republish our articles for free under the Creative Commons licence.

Why are experts calling for a green stimulus?




Fixing the economic crisis requires stimulus plans that address climate change and social injustice too, reports Olivia Boyd
Article image
Sunrise at an off-shore wind farm near Shanghai (Image: Alamy)
The extraordinary spending figures announced by governments in recent weeks are one signal of the scale and breadth of Covid-19’s impact: a $2.2 trillion US rescue package; multibillion-dollar welfare interventions in the UK, France and elsewhere; and a “neo-infrastructure push” on the horizon for China.

But as states scramble to deal with the public health emergency and its immediate economic fallout, a growing number of experts and campaigners are turning attention to what happens after the pandemic. And they are making the case for economic recovery policies that also confront climate change and social injustice. 

“We have converging crises – the Covid crisis, record levels of inequality and the climate crisis,” said Mijin Cha, senior fellow at US think-tank Data for Progress and co-author of an 
open letter to US Congress calling for a menu of green stimulus measures to be made “shovel ready” for when the disease is brought under control. 

The authors propose an American recovery package of at least $2 trillion to create green jobs, transition away from fossil fuels and raise living standards, to be renewed annually at 4% of GDP until the economy is fully decarbonised and the unemployment rate below 3.5%. Suggested policies include everything from electrification of ports to grants for farmers transitioning to regenerative agricultural practices.

“I hate to say ‘use this moment’ because the moment is so dire,” said Cha. “But we know there will be a stimulus, so it’s up to us to make sure it’s one that invests in a low-carbon and more just future.” 

Cha is not alone. Over 1,000 academics, campaigners and citizens have signed the letter. And prominent figures around the world have made similar pleas. International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol, for example, has 
urged policymakers to “put clean energy at the heart of stimulus plans”.

Their calls come at a pivotal moment for the planet. The year 2020 was meant to be a turning point for climate and biodiversity, with a packed line-up of negotiations intended to ramp up action to stave off dangerous warming and species extinctions. The push for green deal policies promoting environmental and social justice had also been gaining momentum, with US presidential contenders debating them and the EU announcing in December a $1 trillion plan for a “just and inclusive” economic transition.

The question now is whether policymakers can be persuaded not to turn their backs on these processes, but to accelerate the move to cleaner, greener economies.

Planning for a stimulus

Michael Jacobs is professor of political economy at the University of Sheffield, and was once a special adviser to then UK prime minister Gordon Brown. He argues that, when the time is right, a sweeping range of stimulus and policy measures – from investing in smart grids, home insulation and conservation schemes to adjusting taxation regimes to boost renewables – could help drive a “green, equitable and resilient recovery”. 

Stimulus planning is complicated by the fact we don’t know quite what society will look like coming out of the pandemic, said Jacobs. For example, will a level of social distancing be required for some time, keeping certain economic activities off limits? But one advantage is that there are already many well-developed ideas and proposals around for helping the transition to low-carbon societies: “It’s not as if nobody has thought about this before,” he said.

Some things are easier to forecast than others – corporate bailouts will likely be the first thing needed, said Jacobs, and should come with conditions. Aviation companies, for example, could be given funds on the basis that they start paying fuel tax, or become broader transport companies and invest in railways. The public sector could also take equity in companies and direct change from within.

Perhaps most important of all, said Jacobs, is that governments avoid doing things that may seem easy but would be devastating for the planet, like massive investment in road building or oil extraction, which would lock in years of avoidable emissions. “The core of the message is we cannot afford to exacerbate our climate problem as we come out of this. So let’s not do the things we shouldn’t,” he said.

Proponents of green recovery measures also argue that they can provide crucial employment in a time of historic joblessness. Helen Mountford, vice president for climate and economics at the World Resources Institute, said a US tree planting programme, for example, could put 150,000 Americans to work while sequestering 540 million tons of CO2 per year by 2040.
We believe an economic revival package should focus on people. The most vulnerable communities hit by this crisis deserve help
When it comes to infrastructure investment, greener choices – like public transport and EV charging infrastructure – can be more effective at generating jobs than their dirtier counterparts, said Mountford. She pointed to research showing that, after the 2008 financial crisis, one billion dollars spent on public transit projects in the US created almost double the number of job hours as the same money spent on highways.

There are signs such arguments are finding traction. A joint statement from the European Council last week called for “the green transition and the digital transformation” to be integrated into recovery measures. And in South Korea, the ruling Democratic Party launched a climate manifesto on 16 March stating an ambition for a zero-carbon society by 2050 and promising an end to coal project financing and a carbon tax.

This is so meaningful because Korea is heavily dependent on the fossil fuel industry like its neighbouring countries,” said Justin Jeong, a Greenpeace campaigner in Seoul, calling it a “great message to all Asian countries”.

Chang Hoon Lee, vice president of the Korea Environment Institute, called for more detailed proposals for achieving these goals, but said the announcement came at the right moment: “Korea is now preparing a vast economic stimulus package, and the investment in greening of industry and in green industries is not only environmentally but also economically rational.”

China plans more infrastructure spending

China, where Covid-19 has been brought under control at least for now, is one of the countries furthest along the road in 
stimulus planning. But while support for “new infrastructure projects” could see huge sums directed into areas like electric vehicle charging, the inclusion of coal projects on a list of provincial spending plans has prompted head-scratching. “China has managed to build more coal plants than it needs. Adding more of them will not burn coal, but money,” said Li Shuo, senior global policy advisor at Greenpeace East Asia. 

Li notes that China had new coal projects in the pipeline even before the pandemic. He thinks the bigger problem with the mooted stimulus is the emphasis on infrastructure spending to make up for the decline of consumption, an approach he argues “will inevitably increase emissions, however you design it”. Instead, he calls for money to be spent on strengthening the social safety net, public healthcare and the service sector.

“We believe an economic revival package should focus on people and sustainable consumption. The most vulnerable communities hit by this crisis deserve help,” Li said.

These arguments resonate across the Pacific, where a growing number of US academics and activists are joining the call for a 
People’s Bailout, with a focus on using public funds to improve ordinary lives rather than simply prop up companies. Thea Riofrancos, assistant professor of political science at Providence College and another co-author of the open letter to Congress, is already worried the US emergency measures have set the wrong tone, describing last week’s bill as a “$4.5 trillion corporate bailout with very few strings attached”. 

But she said there was still a long fight ahead “for the economy we want”, and that she was encouraged by engagement with their ideas from officials both in Congress and state legislatures. At least four stimulus packages are expected in the US in the coming months, but Riofrancos said the response would inevitably go beyond these.

“This is going to be a crisis rivalling the Great Depression and more global in scope,” she said. “So I think there will be untold numbers of stimulus measures in the future.”

“This is the moment to make bold demands.”

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Stimulating the economy sustainably after coronavirus






Government spending should incentivise consumption of public goods and services, not investment in big infrastructure and heavy industry


 middle school teacher in south China gives a lesson to an empty classroom via internet. Students remain isolated at home as part of efforts to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. (Image: Alamy)

As the Covid-19 outbreak stabilises in China, the central government is starting to talk about protecting the economy as well as mitigating the virus.


On 3 February, the politburo standing committee called for China to “tackle the epidemic with one hand, and develop the economy with the other”, and continue working "to realise the year’s economic and social goals”. It reiterated this approach on 12 February.


This year marks the end of the 13th Five Year Plan, which includes the goal of creating a “moderately prosperous society”. Over the plan period (2016-20), national GDP and average incomes were meant to double compared to 2010. For that to happen, GDP would need to grow around 6% this year. There is no doubt the government will produce a stimulus package to help. But a programme focused on infrastructure such as railways and roads will hamper the country’s transition to a sustainable economy.


Heavy industry on the mend


Covid-19 led to the extension of the Chinese New Year holidays to almost a month, which affected all parts of the economy. For heavy industry, the biggest uncertainty was demand. Downstream manufacturers and property developers have been slow to get back to work and the economy in general is sluggish. With demand not yet recovered, output of the raw materials produced by heavy industry, such as steel and aluminium, has fallen, though not precipitously. Steel mill utilisation rates remain at a normal level of about 70%, with no major reduction in output. First quarter steel output is expected to be down about 3%.


The return to work has picked up since 10 February. Coal consumption at six major power plants has increased slowly but steadily, indicating industry is getting back on track. Work on key infrastructure projects such as roads and bridges resumed on 15 February, with considerable fanfare. Experts answering questions online for the Ministry of Ecology and Environment said that despite widespread stoppages in construction, services and labour-intensive manufacturing, the heavy industries that supply these sectors continued to operate through the Chinese New Year and beyond. It’s not economical, for example, to stop furnaces in a steel factory for a week or two, so these continued to burn while producing less steel.


The analyst Lauri Myllyvirta pointed out that China has excess heavy industrial capacity and the sector will be able to ramp up to meet any increased demand, with industrial output and power consumption soon recovering. Experts have said the epidemic will mean a significant but short-term drop in energy consumption by heavy industry in the first quarter of the year, until the epidemic is brought under control.


Signs of an infrastructure-focused stimulus


Covid-19 is a new challenge for a Chinese economy already facing a slowdown. The government’s usual response to economic pressure is to use public spending to promote investment, particularly in infrastructure, and there are signs this will again be the case.


Tens of trillions of yuan of investment is planned in major projects across China this year, according to figures in the Economic Information Daily. The latest figures indicate that among the batch of special-purpose bonds (SPBs) issued by local governments earlier in the year, about 67% are to the infrastructure sector. SPBs are designed to help local governments inject funds into specific projects, such as irrigation and toll roads, to help boost their economies. Since January, local governments have issued about 950 billion yuan (US$136 billion) of SPBs, accounting for about 73.6% of the front-loaded SPB quota for this year.


Transport and energy infrastructure – including gas pipelines, oil refineries and nuclear power plants – are well represented in the project lists that some provinces have published. For example, Jiangsu province plans to invest 220 billion yuan (US$30 billion) in infrastructure out of the 540 billion yuan that is going into 240 major projects. Of the 233 major projects listed by Shandong province, 25 are road or rail construction and 16 are building projects. Meanwhile, Yunnan province announced an infrastructure construction plan at a recent press conference on Covid-19, including 100 billion yuan for high-speed rail.


Economic analysts expect to see infrastructure investment in China climb by as much as 8% to 9% this year.


Lauri Myllyvirta has calculated that the extended holiday cut China’s carbon emissions in the first two weeks of the lunar new year by a quarter year-on-year. These climate savings may be offset by a government stimulus package favouring infrastructure projects. According to Zhang Shuwei, director of the Draworld Environment Research Center: “If the government eases monetary policy and boosts infrastructure construction, we may see a nationwide increase in the energy intensity of the economy. It’s likely that energy consumption will not be affected, or will even jump quite a bit.”


If an economic stimulus is unavoidable, it should at least be targeted and not run contrary to China’s efforts to improve the structure of the economy. The service sector, which has been rocked by Covid-19, accounts for 54% of China’s GDP and provides huge numbers of jobs. Support tailored to it will be crucial for rebuilding resilience and confidence, and is in line with China’s economic transition.


Sustainable stimulus?


Chinese economists often debate how best to direct public finances in order to stimulate the economy. The coronavirus has brought something new to that discussion, by highlighting that public services like hospitals and schools suffer from a lack of resources and capacity to respond to emergencies.


Former mayor of Chongqing, Huang Qifan, wrote that government spending has long favoured transportation and construction, while overlooking public facilities and services. Huang believes spending on the latter would be a more effective way to boost GDP while also meeting public needs. He thinks government spending should incentivise consumption of public goods and services “to promote sustainable and high-quality economic growth.”
"When we look back at the lessons of the epidemic, will we acquire an awe at how nature, society and ourselves rely on each other?"
Heilongjiang and Jiangsu provinces are adding public health and other “catch-up” projects to their list of major projects, with funding support for those chosen. Nationally, the decision on whether to make improving the public health and emergency response systems a key target for government investment will be a test for policymakers.


Covid-19 is believed to have spread to humans via wild animal consumption. The public is now more aware of the importance to health of living in better harmony with the natural world. What is less recognised is that as well as bringing us disease, the overexploitation of nature also brings systemic risks that could cause disastrous “black swan” events. Four of the five major risks listed in the World Economic Forum’s 2020 Global Risks Report are environmental: climate change, biodiversity loss, extreme weather and the water crisis. As these risks interact rather than stand alone, they could cause a chain reaction.


If we are to increase our resilience, we need to fully understand these risks and ensure the facilities and mechanisms to respond are in place to prevent incidents escalating catastrophically. Environmental risks, like public health risks, need major investment to guard against. There are two aspects to this investment: one is spending on restoring our damaged environment and minimising further damage; the second is investment in environmentally-friendly technologies and industries that can change our mode of economic growth – to increase the “compatibility” of our society and economy with the environment.


How will we restore the economy once the epidemic has passed? If we direct government spending to high-carbon infrastructure construction and heavy industry, as usual, we will place ourselves at huge climate risk. This kind of investment is clearly not sustainable.


According to Zhang Shuwei: “The key is what we see when we look back at the lessons of the epidemic. Will we focus solely on the joy of victory, or acquire an awe at how nature, society and ourselves rely on each other? Our answer will lead us down different paths.”


作者 AUTHORs


Yao Zhe

Yao Zhe is a strategic climate communications officer at chinadialogue.

Wu Yixiu

Wu Yixiu is team leader of chinadialogue's Strategic Climate Communication Initiatives.  
Before joining the team she was campaign manager with Greenpeace East Asia responsible for international policies. She also worked as a reporter at the English Service of China Radio International. Yixiu holds a B.A. in History in Fudan University and a master’s degree in Journalism from University of Westminster, London.