COP29 and the quest for an accord acceptable to all
Zaki Abbas in BakuPublished November 16, 2024
DAWN
At COP29, every day is a ‘leg day’, at least for journalists, who have to run from one block to another, trying to keep up with the various sessions going on simultaneously, all the while trying to get hold of their respective countries’ delegations.
The negotiations, on the other hand, are going nowhere, as the developed and developing worlds bicker over the new climate finance goal, aka the New Collective Quantified Goal.
COP29 was off to a bumpy start since the very first day, and the little headway that has been made is on standards to boost the global carbon market under Article 6.4 of the historic Paris Agreement signed in 2015.
Some of the countries were unhappy with how these guidelines were rushed through without any debate, which may pose a problem at a later stage.
There is, however, little progress on what the carbon markets will look like and how countries will evolve a consensus on carbon credits, which supposedly provide solutions to climate problems.
Controversial carbon markets, non-operationalisation of Loss and Damage fund among key sticking points
By the evening, after a delay of several hours, parties managed to agree in principle on a draft for the new finance goal, but it will be a long time before any final agreement is reached.
Supposedly, the money earned from carbon markets will be part of climate finance — a contentious issue between the North and South — as even after over a decade, its modalities still need to be hammered out.
Interestingly, some Latin American countries such as Venezuela and Ecuador who had opposed such schemes at every climate conference, seemingly gave in this time.
Activists and civil society members at COP29 see these credits as ‘false solutions’, which are not acceptable to them.
Whither loss and damage?
Let’s set aside this controversial topic for a minute. Even the Loss and Damage (L&D) Fund — which was operationalised at COP28 in Dubai — has not picked up steam.
Out of over $700 million in pledges made at the last COP, only $10 million materialised which came from Japan, according to the Loss and Damage Collaboration.
The fund was established at COP27 after 31 years of “inaction, delay and obfuscation by developed country parties since the first proposal for a Loss and Damage finance mechanism was tabled by Vanuatu on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in 1991”.
At present, the fund is empty.
The World Bank, which maintains the secretariat of this fund, says it has no control over the money supposed to be contributed to the account.
Arif Goheer, executive director of the Global Change Impact Study Centre, told Dawn at the Pakistan Pavilion there were losses to the tune of trillions, and the L&D Fund was not equipped to deal with that.
“Loss and Damage does not have even procedures,” Mr Goheer, who is privy to negotiations, said, adding that the fund should be topped up with ample amount of money keeping in view of vulnerabilities of different, especially the most-affected states with no coping capacities.
According to Mr Goheer, since the L&D Fund is for emergencies and natural disasters, it should be given instantly to help the countries cope with it instead of linking it to the project-based funding.
About the negotiations, he said G-77 and China block, which also includes Pakistan, want easy to climate funds as well as easy procedures for accessing them. The talks to agree on a climate finance goal will continue on Saturday, the official added.
Global Stocktake
Similarly, in the first week of COP29, the countries have failed to take the Global Stocktake, which could potentially delay the new NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) which all parties are expected to submit by February 2025.
The global stocktake takes a look at the performance of countries with regard to their NDCs as well as set the stage for the more ambitious ones.
The Adaptation Fund has also hit a stonewall due to significant disagreements between developed and developing countries on adaptation-related matters, particularly the provision of Means of Implementation (MOI).
Concerns have been expressed by activist groups at COP29, who believe the presence of fossil fuel lobbyists at the venue is counterproductive as they step up their campaign ‘Weed Out the Snakes’ and ‘Let’s Kick Big Polluters Out’.
According to Rachel Ross, there are almost 1,700 fossil fuel lobbyists at the venue who are “poisoning” climate action.
On the third day of COP29, the Argentine delegation was abruptly pulled out of the conference on the orders of its president, who is a climate denier.
Its neighbour, COP30 host Brazil, has submitted its NDCs and is poised to host the next conference, which is evident from the massive pavilion in Baku.
On Monday, the conference enters its second phase with ministers from different countries coming together to hammer out an agreement acceptable to all.
Produced as part of the 2024 Climate Change Media Partnership, a journalism fellowship organised by Internews’ Earth Journalism Network and the Stanley Centre for Peace and Security.
Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2024
Fragile countries make $20bn climate finance push at COP29, letter says
Reuters Published November 15, 2024
Emergency physician Joe Vipond, a member of Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment (CAPE), poses for photographers with a model of the globe as he stands for support of climate agenda during the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29), in Baku, Azerbaijan on November 15. — Reuters
A group of conflict-affected countries is pushing at COP29 to double financial aid to more than $20 billion a year and combat the natural disaster and security crises facing their populations, a letter seen by Reuters showed.
The group is one of several pitching at the climate talks in Azerbaijan this week for funds to better prepare for the impacts of extreme weather as countries seek to agree to a new annual target on financing.
Island nations, for example, argue climate change threatens their very existence as seas rise, while rainforest nations say they need more money to protect their vast carbon sinks.
Countries mired in conflict and its aftermath say they have struggled to access private investment, as they are seen as too risky. That means UN funds are even more critical to their populations, many of whom have been displaced by war and weather.
In response, the COP29 Azerbaijan Presidency on Friday will launch a new ‘Network of Climate-vulnerable Countries’, including a number of countries that belong to the g7+, an intergovernmental group of fragile countries, which first sent the appeal.
The network aims to advocate as a group with climate finance institutions; build capacity in member states so they can absorb more finance; and create country platforms so investors can more easily find high-impact projects in which to invest, said think tank ODI Global, which helped the countries create the network.
Burundi, Chad, Iraq, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Timor-Leste and Yemen have already joined the initiative, but all 20 members of the g7+ have been invited. “My hope is it will create a real platform for the countries in need,” said Abdullahi Khalif, chief climate negotiator for Somalia on the sidelines of the Baku talks.
The move follows a letter sent by the g7+ to the United Nations, World Bank Group, International Monetary Fund and COP presidencies last month, and shared exclusively with Reuters, asking for more support.
In it, the group demanded an explicit commitment in any final deal on finance at COP29 that would double financing to help them adapt to climate change to at least a collective $20 billion per year by 2026.
While 45 of the world’s least developed countries have their own UN negotiating group, which includes some of the g7+ countries, conflict-affected states face distinct struggles, advocates said.
“A flood situation in South Sudan or Somalia creates more catastrophe than it would in any other developing country,” said Habib Mayar, g7+ deputy general secretary, who helped coordinate the letter.
A child born in South Sudan, which has been mired in war since 2013, was 38 times more likely in 2022 to be internally displaced by climate-related disasters than a European or North American child, according to Unicef data.
Yet conflict-affected countries received only $8.4bn in climate funding in 2022 about a quarter of what was needed, according to a 2024 analysis by ODI Global.
“It’s clear that climate funds aren’t doing enough to support the world’s most climate vulnerable people,” said Mauricio Vazquez, ODI Global’s head of policy for global risks and resilience, said.
Climate ambition gapPublished November 15, 2024
DAWN
AS the world inches closer to catastrophe, all eyes are on the Conference of Parties (COP) taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan.
The opening speeches from the COP28 UAE presidency, COP29 Azer presidency, and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) executive secretary all made the links between climate action and finance needs.
Climate finance was at the heart of the agenda, with parties eager to discuss means of implementation to support delivery of the Global Stock-take outcome. Political engagement to break the gridlock on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) will be crucial for countries to enhance ambition on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 3.0 to meet mitigation and adaptation targets.
The NDC announcements from the UAE and Brazil are welcome signals from two of the COP troika on their commitments to multilateral climate action. However, the troika countries collectively plan to expand oil and gas production by 32 per cent by 2035 (Brazil 36pc, UAE 34pc, and Azerbaijan 14pc).
With a packed agenda and only two weeks to move the needle on critical and contentious issues, it is important to reflect on facts and figures to develop a better understanding of the state of play and what’s at stake.
It is important to reflect on facts and figures to develop a better understanding of the state of play and what’s at stake.
The report on Doubling Adaptation Finance, released by the developed countries, states that the developed countries provided and mobilised a total of $32.4 billion in adaptation finance in 2022, including a total of $28.9bn in international public finance, an increase of nearly 23pc over 2021 levels and 54pc over 2019 levels. According to the report, significant progress has been made towards doubling adaptation finance from 2019 levels in the first three years of available data, and efforts are on track to reach $40bn by 2025.
The International Energy Agency acknowledges the momentum on decarbonisation, with record rollout of renewable energy and a scaling-up of electric vehicles, but expresses concern that the progress is not enough to keep the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold alive. The IEA finds that governments are still responsible for around $1 trillion of energy sector investment today and will need to increase net-zero investments by about 40pc by 2035.
The World Meteorological Organisation report outlines that CO2 concentrations have increased 11.4pc in just 20 years, with the long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere locking in future temperature increase.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development reports that in 2022, developed countries provided and mobilised a total of $115.9bn in climate finance for developing countries. This occurred with a delay of two years from the original 2020 target, but public finance accounted for close to 80pc of the total in 2022, and increased from $38bn in 2013 to $91.6bn in 2022. Mitigation continued to account for 60pc of the total and public climate finance grew by 52pc following several years of stagnation.
The Biennial Assessment of Climate Finance Flows prepared by the UNFCCC Standing Committee on Finance states that global climate finance flows in 2021-2022 increased by 63pc compared to those in 2019-2020, reaching an annual average of $1.3tr, and tracked adaptation finance increased by 28pc to an annual average of $63bn in 2021-2022. The report acknowledges that more than half of the global climate finance was provided in the form of debt instruments, while grant finance more than doubled in absolute terms but still accounted for only 6pc of the total flow.
The UN Trade and Development report on the NCQG outlines the climate finance needed from the developed countries to developing countries to meet the Paris Agreement goals. It concludes that the developing countries require $1.1tr in climate finance from 2025, rising to around $1.8tr by 2030. Based on these numbers, developed countries should anticipate a funding equivalent of three quarters of the investments needed in developing countries for climate mitigation and adaptation, as well as supporting response to climate-induced loss and damage.
Accordingly, the NCQG contribution target for developed countries should be around $0.89tr in 2025, reaching up to $1.46tr by the fifth year of implementation. This would imply a target for around 1.4pc of developed countries’ GDP per year from 2025 until 2030, and then reviewed to make it equivalent to around 2pc of developing countries’ GDP.
And finally, the United Nations Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2024 raises alarm with its findings that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions grew by 1.3pc year-on-year to 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023. The mitigation pledges for 2030-2035 are not on track and need to be 26 gigatons of carbon dioxide lower for a warming limit of 1.5ºC.
Clearly, the ambition gap is widening, the need gap growing and the window of opportunity shrinking. GHG emissions are dangerously high and cash flows dismally small and slow. It is unlikely that COP29 will succeed in issuing a declaration that satisfies everyone. However, the goal of 1.5 still remains within reach but delay in action is not an option.
For Pakistan, the current temperature trends mean an increase in climate-induced hazards, more loss and damage, and a higher risk of sinking deeper into a debt and poverty trap.
It is time to reconcile with reality and accept the fact that total reliance on external support for succour is not a gamble that the country can afford.
Pakistan needs to reset its priorities and align them with the national security policy, making geo-economics and governance reforms its top action agenda. Now is perhaps the last opportunity for making long-term strategic choices to prepare the country for a future with a new socioeconomic and political climate.
The writer is the chief executive of the Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change.
aisha@csccc.org.pk
Published in Dawn, November 15th, 2024
Optimising COP29 Published November 14, 2024
DAWN
THE global demand for skilled workers in green technologies is growing. This is important for Pakistan, where climate change and environmental degradation are urgent concerns. Green Technical and Vocational Education and Training is vital for developing skills needed to make key industries sustainable. However, substantial challenges remain in fully integrating Green TVET into the national development framework.
With COP29 in Baku focused on climate action and sustainable workforce development, Pakistan has an opportunity to formalise Green TVET strategies. Indeed, the country’s vulnerability to climate change underscores the need for Green TVET. Pakistan is among the top 10 countries most affected by the impact of climate change. It accrues an annual loss of $3.8 billion due to extreme weather events. The industrial and agricultural sectors, contributing more than 40 per cent of GDP and employing over 60pc of the workforce, are heavily reliant on obsolete, environmentally damaging practices, thus making it critical to transition to eco-friendly methods.
However, in adopting Green TVT, Pakistan will face several structural and economic hurdles, one challenge being the absence of a comprehensive national policy connecting green economic goals to vocational training. Although environmental concerns have been partially addressed in the National Climate Change Policy, the latter does not prioritise workforce development for green sectors. This indicates an institutional disconnect with organisations that are attempting to bridge the gap by integrating green skills into their programmes.
Incorporating green skills requires strategic focus and institutional coordination. For instance, the National Vocational and Technical Training Commission has introduced some foundational green skills, aimed at building awareness of sustainable practices. However, these efforts require substantial expansion.
Industry demand for green skills remains low in Pakistan.
At COP29, where global leaders are discussing climate action and workforce development, Pakistan can advocate for Green TVET on an international platform. Efforts of organisations, such as the NAVTTC, could benefit from aligning with frameworks emerging from the climate conference, potentially securing commitments for funding and support from international partners. Such alliances could enable them to expand Green TVET programming and help Pakistan achieve both its climate and economic objectives.
There is also not much awareness of or demand for green skills among employers. Many industries lack an understanding of the benefits of green skills; their motivation to adopt sustainable practices is thus reduced. Critical sectors, including the construction industry and agriculture, still depend on resource-intensive methods, as they perceive the transition costs to be high. For instance, the construction sector, which contributes over 2pc to GDP, often resorts to energy-inefficient practices, while agriculture — the largest employment sector — has been slow to adopt climate-smart techniques.
These challenges deter TVET institutions from investing in green training programmes as industry demand for these skills remains low. Creating awareness and a demand for green skills within industries requires focused outreach and partnerships to educate employers on the long-term economic benefits of sustainable practices.
Many vocational institutions also lack modern equipment, which is essential for teaching technologies, such as those related to solar panel installation or sustainable agriculture practices. Nearly half our TVET institutions are under-resourced, highlighting an immediate need to upgrade facilities to meet the demands of a green economy. Securing these upgrades is challenging as budget allocations are limited. Pakistan’s TVET sector receives around 2.5pc of the national education budget, which would need to be scaled up in order to match countries that prioritise vocational training. Private sector investment in green skills training is also minimal, and although international funding options, such as the Green Climate Fund, exist, Pakistan has to do much more to access these resources.
Investing in Green TVET can speed up both economic growth and environmental resilience. By establishing cohesive policies, raising industry awareness, securing funding, and promoting TVET, Pakistan can build a workforce capable of supporting sustainable development in core sectors of the economy. This shift will not only reduce Pakistan’s environmental footprint but also position the country as a proactive participant in the global green economy, aligning with COP29’s objectives and working towards a more sustainable future.
The writer is the chairperson of the National Vocational and Technical Training Commission.
chairperson@navttc.gov.pk
Published in Dawn, November 14th, 2024
