UPDATE

Archaeology sensation: An ancient city reemerges in Iraq reservoir

Extreme drought in Iraq have given German and Kurdish archaeologists the unique chance to examine an ancient Bronze Age city, Zachiku. It was a race against the clock.



The ruined ancient city was exposed for only about six weeks


Southern Iraq has been suffering from extreme drought for months. Since December, large amounts of water have been diverted from the Mosul Dam, Iraq's most important water reservoir, to prevent harvests from drying out.

Due to the low water level, the remains of a 3,400-year-old city that disappeared decades ago emerged on the edge of the reservoir.

"I saw on satellite images that the water level was falling but it wasn't clear when the water would rise again. So, we had an unknown window of time," says German archaeologist Ivana Puljiz, a junior professor at the University of Freiburg.

But archaeologists knew that the site — known as Kemune — was interesting. They had been there before.


Archeologists had little time to uncover and document the site

So, Puljiz got together with Hasan Ahmed Qasim, a Kurdish archaeologist and director of the Kurdistan Archeology Organization, and Peter Pfälzner, a German archeology professor at the University of Tübingen, to carry out a spontaneous rescue excavation.

They quickly put together a team of German and Kurdish archaeologists to uncover and document as much of the large site as they could.

The team surveyed the Bronze Age city for seven weeks in January and February 2022 before it was completely flooded again.
Emergency excavation reveals large buildings

During a similar dry phase in 2018, the researchers had discovered a fortress-like palace located nearby on a small hill. It was bordered by a large terrace wall.


'We had an unknown window of time," archaeologist Puljiz told DW

At the time, Ivana Puljiz's team found the remains of wall paintings in bright red and blue tones, thought to be a typical feature of such palaces.

The fact that the pigments were preserved despite the flooding was "an archaeological sensation," Puljiz told DW after their 2022 visit to the site.

"Of course we had high hopes. Based on the things we had found in 2018, we knew that this site could bring interesting findings. But we didn't know what exactly we would find [this time]," said Puljiz.

The team was not disappointed: During this year's excavation, the archeologist said they were able to uncover other large buildings, such as a massive fortification with a wall and towers that surrounded the city.
A mighty city that dominated the area

The researchers' discovery of a large, multi-story warehouse full of supplies was particularly exciting.

The extent of what was once possibly a mighty city can only truly be viewed from above

"The sheer size of this building alone shows that it had to have housed an enormous amount of goods. And these goods had to be produced and brought there first," said Puljiz. It suggests the city obtained its supplies from a surrounding area it controlled.

Puljiz said their initial findings suggested the extensive city complex could be ancient Zachiku, an important center in the Mitanni empire (circa 1550 to 1350 BC). Zachiku controlled large parts of northern Mesopotamia and Syria.

However, not much is known about ancient Zachiku. "There are very, very few mentions of this city name in other sources, so we are only now bringing new knowledge to light about it," Puljiz said.

Ceramic vessels with over 100 inscriptions

The walls and foundations of the building appear to be in surprisingly good condition, said Puljiz, despite their being made of unfired adobe bricks that have been under water for decades.


The researchers discovered clay vessels containing numerous cuneiform tablets

It's possible that a massive earthquake that struck the city around 1350 BC helped preserve those walls — when the building was destroyed and the rubble fell, it may have covered the lower parts of the wall, thereby preserving them.

One of the most fascinating finds, said the researcher, was the discovery of five ceramic vessels, containing over 100 cuneiform tablets, as if in a kind of archive.

Cuneiform is one of the oldest forms of writing. Some of the clay tablets were even found in clay "envelopes."

"When you think that these clay tablets — which aren't fired, they're just solid clay — were underwater for so long and survived and hopefully can soon be read by a philologist, then that's really a sensation," said Puljiz.
Unknown empire of the Mitanni

Those clay tablets were created in the Middle Assyrian period, shortly after that devastating earthquake, when people may have started to settle on the ruins of the ancient city again.

The archeologists says it's a "sensation" that unfired clay tablets found at the site weren't destroyed

The cuneiform texts may now provide information about the end of the Mitanni-period and the beginning of Assyrian rule in the region. The kingdom of Mitanni is still considered one of the least explored states of antiquity.

During its heyday in the middle of the second millennium BC, the kingdom stretched from the Mediterranean coast across modern-day Syria to northern, modern-day Iraq.
Heartland of the Mitanni lies in darkness

Mitanni royalty are said to have maintained a lively exchange with Egyptian pharaohs and Babylonian rulers. Around 1350 BC, however, the Mitanni empire was conquered by neighboring Hittites and Assyrians.


Archeologists hope plastic sheeting will protect the site until the next time the water is low

The events that led to the city's fall remain unclear. To learn more about the Mitanni empire, researchers would need to investigate the center of the former empire — which was probably located in what is now northern Syria — said archaeologist Puljiz.

But the many years of war in the region have made such archaeological digs impossible.

"Without finding notable texts from the center of the empire, it is very difficult to get a picture of how it functioned, what held it together or what landowners did. So far we only have single, spotlight sources from peripheral areas, like now from what is probably ancient Zachiku," said Puljiz. "But the core area remains in the dark."

Before the ruined city was submerged again by the reservoir, the archeologists covered the excavated buildings with a tight-fitting plastic film and gravel to protect them from further damage. With luck, the lost city of the Mitanni will reappear another time.

ARCHAEOLOGISTS DISCOVER 'LOST GOLDEN CITY OF LUXOR'
Largest ancienct city unearthed in Egypt
The ancient city, reported to be the largest ever found in Egypt, dates back to the era of king Amenhotep III, who ruled the ancient kingdom from 1391 to 1353 BC. That's according to Zahi Hawass, the Egyptian archaeologist who led the expedition. "Many foreign missions searched for this city and never found it," Hawass, a former antiquities affairs minister, said in an online statement.
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CRYPTID ALERT

Texas city shares photo of unidentified 'object' outside zoo

The City of Amarillo, Texas, is asking for the public's help to identify this "Unidentified Amarillo Object" caught on a security camera outside the Amarillo Zoo. Photo courtesy of the City of Amarillo/Facebook

June 9 (UPI) -- Officials in a Texas city are asking for the public's help identifying an unidentified "object" caught on security cameras outside the city's zoo.

The City of Amarillo posted a photo to Facebook on Wednesday showing what appears to be an oddly-dressed person wandering outside the gates of the Amarillo Zoo about 1:25 a.m. May 21.

"Is it a person with a strange hat who likes to walk at night? A chupacabra? Do you have any ideas of what this UAO -- Unidentified Amarillo Object could be?" the post said.

Michael Kashuba, City of Amarillo's director of Parks and Recreation, said city officials want members of the public to submit their theories.

"It is definitely a strange and interesting image," Kashuba told KXAS-TV. "Maybe Amarillo can help solve the mystery of our UAO."

He said local authorities do not believe any crime was committed.

"It is [also] important to note that this entity was outside of the Amarillo Zoo," Kashuba said. "There were no signs of attempted entry into the zoo. No animals or individuals were harmed. There we no signs of criminal activity or vandalism."

PUBLIC LOBBYING SINCE 1948

NASA launches UFO study as mainstream interest grows

© via AFP

The space agency on Thursday announced a new study that will recruit leading scientists to examine unidentified aerial phenomena—a subject that has long fascinated the public and recently gained high-level attention from Congress.

The project will begin early this fall and last around nine months, focusing on identifying available data, how to gather more data in future, and how NASA can analyze the findings to try to move the needle on scientific understanding.

“Over the decades, NASA has answered the call to tackle some of the most perplexing mysteries we know of, and this is no different,” Daniel Evans, the NASA scientist responsible for coordinating the study, told reporters on a call.

While NASA probes and rovers scour the solar system for the fossils of ancient microbes, and its astronomers look for so-called “technosignatures” on distant planets for signs of intelligent civilizations, this is the first time the agency will investigate unexplained phenomena in Earth’s skies.

With its access to a broad range of scientific tools, NASA is well placed not just to demystify UFOs and deepen scientific understanding, but also to find ways to mitigate the phenomena, a key part of its mission to ensure the safety of aircraft, said the agency’s chief scientist, Thomas Zurbuchen.

Zurbuchen acknowledged the traditional scientific community may see NASA as “kind of selling out” by venturing into the controversial topic, but he strongly disagrees.

“We are not shying away from reputational risk,” Zurbuchen said during a National Academy of Sciences webcast. “Our strong belief is that the biggest challenge of these phenomena is that it’s a data-poor field.”

The announcement comes as the field of UFO study, once a poorly-regarded research backwater, is gaining more mainstream traction.

Last month, Congress held a public hearing into UFOs, while a US intelligence report last year cataloged 144 sightings that it said could not be explained. It did not rule out alien origin.

NASA’s study will be independent of the Pentagon’s Airborne Object Identification and Management Synchronization Group, but the space agency “has coordinated widely across the government regarding how to apply the tools of science,” it said in a statement.

A paucity in the number of UFO observations make it difficult at present for the scientific community to draw conclusions.

Therefore, said astrophysicist David Spergel, who will lead the research, the first task of the group would be identifying the extent of data out there from sources including civilians, government, nonprofits and companies.

Another overarching goal of NASA is to deepen credibility in this field of study.

“There is a great deal of stigma associated with UAP among our naval aviators and aviation community,” said Evans.

“One of the things we tangentially hope to do as part of this study, simply by talking about it in the open, is to help to remove some of the stigma associated with it, and that will yield obviously, increased access to data, more reports, more sightings.”

(FRANCE 24 with AFP and AP)

US Survey: For many, wages up almost 5% this year and more hikes are coming

Most American workers need pay raises of more than 70% before earning a living wage

A survey this month found that about two-thirds of U.S. employers said they made wage and salary boosts above 4% this year, while a quarter increased pay by more than 6%. File Photo by FotograFFF/Shutterstock/UPI

June 9 (UPI) -- As inflation hovers at a 40-year high and with many wages already up by almost 5% this year, some U.S. employers are looking to raise worker pay again this year, according to a survey.

The Pearl Meyer compensation planning survey this month says that base wage and salary hikes this year were 4.8% for all employee groups combined, and found that about a third of employers are planning mid-year hikes.

"Based on participant responses collected during the third quarter of 2021, Pear Meyer's annual, in-depth compensation planning survey projected that 2022 salary increase budgets would be consistent with previous years. However, after that survey was conducted, inflation continued to rise through the fall and the labor market became even more competitive," the survey states.

Pearl Meyer said total base salary increases hovered in the low 3% range for the past two decades.

RELATED Analysis says most U.S. workers need major pay increase to earn living wage

Two-thirds of employers surveyed made wage and salary boosts above 4% this year, while a quarter of them increased pay by more than 6%.

"Most companies are giving thoughtful consideration to mid-year increases and are providing them to key employees, targeted job families, and top performers rather than granting increases across the board," the survey said, noting that most of the organizations surveyed, 64%, said they're not planning a mid-year pay increase.

As some employers raise wages, a report by the University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute found this year that worker compensation is still way behind what workers need to earn living wages.

RELATED U.S. workers' pay rose by 1.5% in Q3; biggest hike in decades

The Wisconsin report found that most American workers need pay raises of more than 70% before earning a living wage -- and the average living wage across all U.S. counties for one adult and three children is roughly $36 per hour.

World health experts now say COVID 'lab leak' theory needs further investigation

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Group isn't ruling out that the pandemic was caused by a

laboratory accident

The Associated Press · Posted: Jun 09, 2022 

This transmission electron microscope image shows SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. A World Health Organization expert panel says more research is needed to determine where it came from. (NIAID)

An expert group drafted by the World Health Organization to help investigate the origins of the coronavirus pandemic says further research is needed to determine how COVID-19 first began, including a more detailed analysis of the possibility it was a laboratory accident.

That stance marks a sharp reversal of the United Nations agency's initial assessment of the pandemic's origins. WHO concluded last year that it was "extremely unlikely" COVID-19 might have spilled into humans from a lab. Many scientists suspect the coronavirus jumped into people from bats, possibly via another animal.

In a report released Thursday, WHO's expert group said that "key pieces of data" to explain how the pandemic began were still missing. The scientists said the group would "remain open to any and all scientific evidence that becomes available in the future to allow for comprehensive testing of all reasonable hypotheses."

Identifying a disease's source in animals typically takes years; it took about 15 years for scientists to find the species of bats that were the natural reservoir for SARS, a relative of COVID-19.

WHO's expert group also noted that since lab accidents in the past have triggered some outbreaks, the highly politicized theory could not be discounted.

Letters sent to China

Former U.S. president Donald Trump speculated repeatedly — without evidence — that COVID-19 was started in a Chinese lab. He also accused WHO of "colluding" with China to cover up the initial outbreak, citing the health agency's continued public praise of the country.

The expert group said WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus sent two letters to senior Chinese government officials in February requesting information, including details about the earliest human cases of COVID-19 in the city of Wuhan. It's unclear whether the Chinese responded.

• The WHO hopes its new panel can determine the origin of COVID-19. Some experts are skeptical

• China uninterested in WHO plan for further COVID-19 origins study

The experts said no studies were provided to WHO that assessed the possibility of COVID-19 resulting from a laboratory leak. They said their understanding of how the coronavirus emerged was limited by several factors, including that not all research presented by Chinese scientists has been published.

Jamie Metzl, who sits on an unrelated WHO advisory group, has suggested that the Group of Seven industrialized nations set up their own COVID origins probe, saying WHO lacks the political authority, scientific expertise and independence to conduct such a critical evaluation.

Security personnel keep watch outside the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China during a visit by a WHO team tasked with investigating the origins of COVID-19, in February 2021. (Thomas Peter/Reuters)

Metzl welcomed WHO's call for a further investigation of the lab leak possibility but said it was insufficient.

"Tragically, the Chinese government is still refusing to share essential raw data and will not allow the necessary, full audit of the Wuhan labs," he said. "Gaining access to this information is critical to both understanding how this pandemic began and preventing future pandemics."

WHO's expert scientists said numerous avenues of research were needed, including studies evaluating the role of wild animals, which are thought to be COVID-19's natural reservoir, and environmental studies in places where the virus might have first spread, like the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan.

Previous report said lab accident unlikely 

In March 2021, WHO released a report about COVID-19's origins following a highly choreographed visit by international scientists to China. The report concluded that the disease most likely jumped into humans from bats and that there was no evidence to suggest there was a connection to a laboratory.

Yet after considerable criticism, including from some of the scientists on WHO's team, agency chief Tedros acknowledged that it was "premature" to rule out a lab leak and said he asked China to be more transparent in sharing information.

An expert panel says WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus sent two letters to senior Chinese government officials in February requesting information, including details about the earliest human cases of COVID-19 in the city of Wuhan, but it's unclear whether he received a response. (Salvatore Di Nolfi/Keystone/The Associated Press)

In its new report, WHO said the experts were given access to data that included unpublished blood samples from more than 40,000 people in Wuhan in 2019. The samples were tested for COVID-19 antibodies. None were found, suggesting the virus was not spreading widely before it was first identified in late December of that year.

WHO's experts called for numerous studies to be done, including testing wild animals to find which species might host COVID-19. They also said the "cold chain" supply theory should be probed, a scientifically questionable theory advanced by China, arguing that traces of COVID-19 on frozen packaging — rather than any domestic source — were causing outbreaks.

To investigate whether COVID-19 might have been the result of a lab accident, WHO's experts said research should be conducted "with the staff in the laboratories tasked with managing and implementing biosafety and biosecurity," noting that would provide more information about how viruses related to COVID-19 were managed.

• COVID-19 most likely derived from animal-to-human transmission: draft report of WHO-China study

• China delayed releasing coronavirus info, frustrating WHO, documents and recordings reveal

China has previously called the suggestion that COVID-19 began in a laboratory "baseless" and countered that the virus might have originated in U.S. facilities, which were also known to be researching coronaviruses in animals.

The Chinese government has said it supports the search for the pandemic's origins but that other countries should be the focus.

Scientists connected to WHO lamented in August 2021 that the search for the pandemic's origins had stalled and that the window of opportunity was "closing fast." They warned that collecting data that was now at least two years old was increasingly difficult.

SEE https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2022/06/washington-post-promotes-trumps-other.html

Edmonton police chief's salary made public

Author of the article:Kellen Taniguchi
Publishing date:Jun 08, 2022 • 17 hours ago • 1 minute read • 8 Comments

Edmonton Police Service Chief Dale McFee. 

PHOTO BY LARRY WONG /Postmedia, file

The Edmonton Police Commission released police Chief Dale McFee’s 2022 salary on Wednesday after a request for it to be made public was made earlier this year.
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In a Wednesday statement, the police commission said the head of the Edmonton Police Service (EPS) is being paid $340,000 this year.

The commission said it currently does not have a policy in place to release the chief’s yearly salary to the public — something it is looking to change.

“This practice does not align with the goals of transparency and governance the commission has set out for itself. Internal policies will be changed to ensure there is an annual process by which the chief of police’s salary is made public going forward,” said the police commission’s statement.

The statement also listed salaries for some police chiefs in other jurisdictions across Canada as comparisons.

McFee is making more than his counterpart in Calgary, who made between $244,677 and $299,250 in 2021 and more than Winnipeg’s chief of police, who earned $291,834 per annum in 2021.

The Vancouver police chief topped the list provided by the Edmonton Police Commission at $378,368.

McFee’s 2022 salary isn’t far behind the chiefs in Toronto and Ottawa, with Toronto’s chief being paid $356,600 in 2021 and Ottawa’s earning slightly more at $359,133 in 2020.

The commission also listed $327,220 as the salary for the Peel Regional Police chief’s salary in 2021 and $354,343 as the 2021 salary for the chief of the Ontario Provincial Police.

The Edmonton Police Commission has uploaded a copy of chief McFee’s contract online, with appropriate redactions, which is available to the public.

The salary reveal comes a day after city council voted to set the Edmonton police base funding at $407 million for 2023. However, council also voted to bring back a police funding formula.

PROVINCE DEFUNDS POLICE

The $407 million was determined in part to account for lower than projected revenue from photo radar fines.

Bank of Canada sounds alarm on economic risk of high household debt amid soaring inflation

Mackenzie Gray
Producer, CTV National News
Updated June 9, 2022 

With interest rates set to keep rising, the Bank of Canada is sounding the alarm on the risk record high house prices and an increasing number of households with high mortgage debt could have on the Canadian economy.

“In Canada, elevated levels of household debt and high house prices remain two key interconnected vulnerabilities,” the bank said in its annual Financial System Review.

Despite house prices increasing 53% nationally between April 2020 and April 2022, the bank is concerned that recent homebuyers lack the equity in their home to withstand a “significant price correction” and would “face more financial strain when they renew their mortgages at higher rates.”

Last week, the Bank of Canada signalled it is willing to hike its key interest rates above the previous target of 3%, which would put those with variable rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit under additional stress.

The bank says many of the recent homebuyers “financially stretched” themselves to purchase a property at record prices due to a “fear of missing out” on the continued increase of house prices across the Canadian housing market.

Share of home purchases by investors increased in 2021

SPECULATORS

The bank blamed the massive run-up in house prices on strong demand relative to supply and an increase in the number of investors snapping up properties.

Investors accounted for 22% of property purchases with mortgages in the fourth quarter of 2021, up from 19% in 2019, according to the bank.

Those investors are taking out existing equity in other properties they own to make new purchases, which the bank says “highlights the feedback loop between rapid gains in the house prices and the strong demand for housing that investors generate.”

House prices remain at all-time highs across Canada but the bank warns that it’s too soon to tell if the recent decrease in resale activity and prices are “temporary or is the start of a deeper, lasting decline.”

One-third of households have a mortgage- with majority on fixed rate

If investor demand dries up for Canadian housing, the bank warns that would “amplify the downward pressure on prices” and could “lead to an abrupt price correction in the future.”

Typical mortgage payment could be 30% higher in 5 years, Bank of Canada warns

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Bank says those who took out a home loan in 2020 or 2021

 should brace for higher rates at renewal

CBC News · Posted: Jun 09, 2022 

The Bank of Canada says anyone who got a mortgage recently should expect to see higher rates when they renew. (Bloomberg)

High house prices and debt loads associated with them are a major vulnerability to Canada's economy, the Bank of Canada said Thursday, warning buyers who bought during the pandemic that the impact of even slightly higher mortgage rates could be dramatic.

In its Financial System Review, the central bank said that while the country's financial system is strong and weathered the pandemic well, the economy remains vulnerable because of elevated debt levels tied to the country's increasingly expensive housing market.

"Even as the average household is in better financial shape, more Canadians have stretched to buy a house during the pandemic," Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said Thursday. "And these households are more exposed to higher interest rates and the potential for housing prices to decline."

The bank said that assessing risks related to high household debt levels has become more complex, but overall "the vulnerability has increased."

• ANALYSIS
  Canadians have record-high mortgage debt. What happens when rates rise?

Roughly two thirds of Canadians are home owners, and about half of them own their homes outright while the remaining have some sort of mortgage debt attached to it.

Raising lending rates slowed housing market

Home prices increased by about 50 per cent, on average, during the pandemic, as low rates allowed buyers to qualify for larger loans while still keeping the ongoing payments relatively affordable.

After slashing its benchmark interest rate at the outset of the pandemic, in March of 2022 the bank began to raise its benchmark lending rate from 0.25 per cent at the start of the year to 1.5 per cent today, and the impact on the housing market has been almost immediate, with sales volumes slowing, along with average selling prices.

"Given the unsustainable strength of housing activity, moderation in housing would be healthy," Macklem said. "But high household debt and elevated house prices are vulnerabilities."

As part of its analysis of how resilient the financial system is in the face of various shocks, the bank examined what the impact of higher rates and lower selling prices might look like.

As part of that, the bank crunched the numbers on what might happen to the mortgages of recent home owners when their loans come up for renewal in five years.

The bank makes the assumption that in 2025 and 2026, variable rate loans will cost 4.4 per cent in five years, while fixed rate loans will be slightly higher at 4.5 per cent. Both scenarios are roughly two percentage points higher than what's available on the market today.

Mortgage costs could go up 30%

Under that scenario, the 1.4 million Canadians who got a mortgage in 2020 or 2021 would see their median monthly cost go up by $420, or 30 per cent upon renewal.

The impact on fixed-rate borrowers would be slightly less, as they'd see their payments go from $1,260 on average to $1,560 a month for an increase of 24 per cent.

But variable rate borrowers are even more vulnerable, under the bank's thought exercise, as their typical monthly payments go from $1.650 a month right now to $2,370 when they renew. That's an increase of 44 per cent.

"If those in highly indebted households lose their jobs, they would likely need to reduce their spending sharply to continue servicing their mortgage," Macklem said.

"This is not what we expect to happen … But it is a vulnerability to watch closely and manage carefully," Macklem said.

• Brace yourself: Interest rates could be headed up even faster and higher than we thought

Higher inflation, global tensions

complicating financial system risks: 

Bank of Canada

Stephanie Hughes - NATIONAL POST

The Bank of Canada warned that threats to the financial system have grown more complicated in recent months as the country grapples with tightening monetary policy, rampant global inflation and geopolitical tensions. However, the biggest vulnerability remains higher household indebtedness, the central bank highlighted in its latest Financial System Review .


A person walks past the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa.


Policymakers said they are facing a “delicate balancing act,” as surging inflation will force them to raise interest rates over the months ahead, even though Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has rocked global stability and the pandemic continues to hinder economic growth.

“Failure to balance these competing objectives could lead to a further global repricing of risk and a sharp tightening of global financial conditions, potentially triggering risks associated with high leverage,” the report said.

High household indebtedness from bigger mortgage volumes and soaring house prices are interwoven issues the central bank said are receiving extra attention, especially as rising interest rates put more strain on the carrying costs of all that debt. As households renew their mortgages , they could find themselves with less disposable income, and potentially tied to less valuable assets if housing markets correct.


© Mark Blinch/Reuters files

As households renew their mortgages, they could find themselves with less disposable income, and potentially tied to less valuable assets if housing markets correct.

But Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem argued in a Thursday morning press conference that households were in strong enough shape to shoulder a more aggressive rate hike path.

“We think the economy can handle higher interest rates, we think the economy needs higher interest rates,” Macklem said. “The likelihood that we may need to go to the top of that two to three per cent neutral range, or possibly somewhat above it, to bring inflation back to target has increased.

“When we indicate that we’re prepared to move more forcefully if needed, what we’re indicating is we may need to take more … interest rate steps to get inflation back to target, or we may need to move more quickly. (We) may need to take a larger step.”

In April, Macklem suggested he had not ruled out an interest rate hike larger than the 50-basis point increases the bank has put in place during the past two rate announcements.

Housing has been a concern for years, but now financial markets are emerging as a significant threat to financial stability. The Bank of Canada said that while the Canadian financial system remained resilient throughout the pandemic, global inflationary pressures and the war in Ukraine brought higher volatility in commodity markets and significant market repricing as investors moved away from riskier assets.


The central bank added that tighter global financial conditions would put this resilience to the test, and would more clearly expose system vulnerabilities moving forward. As China pursues a COVID-zero strategy, new outbreaks of COVID-19 are another concern the central bank said it is watching.

Countries emerging from the pandemic have lifted restrictions, bringing robust demand for goods and services, straining supply chains. These factors working in tandem pulled inflation up to multi-decade highs. As the central bank tightens its policy to put a lid on inflation, corporate bond yields hit multi-year highs and borrowing costs for homeowners are soaring.

Policymakers said they are paying particular attention to the greater number of Canadian households carrying a much larger mortgage debt, noting that the number of new mortgages with a loan-to-value ratio of 75 per cent or more has risen 40 per cent in recent quarters. Canadians are taking on larger mortgages compared to their income, with the share of mortgage originations with a loan-to-income ratio above 450 per cent surpassing 25 per cent since the start of the pandemic.

“Higher interest rates at the time of mortgage renewal will significantly reduce the financial flexibility of some households, particularly the most indebted,” the report said, while adding that rising borrowing costs will erode homeowners’ purchasing power if wages cannot keep pace.

Assuming variable- and fixed-rate mortgages originating in 2020 and 2021 renew at 4.4 per cent and 4.5 per cent in 2025 and 2026, the central bank estimated that households that took out a mortgage during the pandemic could see a median 30-per-cent boost in monthly mortgage payments once they renew.

Despite household net worth increasing $230,000 on average, the report noted that indebted Canadians may not be able to tap into home equity if the housing market corrects and these wealth gains are wiped out. The lower purchasing power could present a drag on consumption in the economy at a time when the economy is getting back on its feet following the pandemic.

The central bank noted that high house prices and household debt could weigh on projected economic growth, and the probability of negative growth projected for the first quarter of 2024 is nearly two times greater than if these vulnerabilities were not there. An economic disruption lowering household income and spending would hit consumption and weaken housing market activity.

According to Bank of Canada data, home prices have risen over 50 per cent on average during the pandemic with investors disproportionately driving up home prices last year, bringing the risks of a housing correction up with it. Canadian markets are already seeing this moderation take hold as resale activity slowed in March and April. The report noted this could be an “echo effect” as demand was pulled forward, seeing homeowners lock in mortgages before rates rose — or could be “the beginning of the end of the pandemic upswing.”

Macklem said the housing market is still being supported by strong fundamentals, such as solid employment and wage growth, as well as rebounding immigration, though he said he would not be surprised to see markets moderate given the pandemic-fuelled run-up in home values.

Most major Canadian housing markets saw higher price exuberance in the first quarter, according to the central bank’s house price exuberance indicator. According to this metric, the Greater Vancouver Area, Hamilton, the Greater Toronto Area, Ottawa, and Montreal are among the most exuberant markets across the country.

Another potential risk the Bank of Canada flagged is a sudden spike in demand for liquidity from asset managers outpacing supply, which poses stronger risks of large price swings and even potential freezes in fixed-income markets. It was an issue the central bank flagged in last year’s report, though a tightening monetary environment this year has reduced liquidity even further.

In an increasingly digital world, the central bank has grown more wary of cyber threats, particularly as the ongoing Russian invasion into Ukraine gives rise to more state-sponsored cyber attacks, which could run the risk of targeting Canadian financial institutions, especially as they grow more sophisticated. The report added that a successful attack could have far-reaching impacts on the broader financial system since financial infrastructure is so inter-connected, causing households and firms to lose access to funds and the ability to move money electronically.

To combat these risks, financial institutions and authorities are investing in cybersecurity improvements to keep pace with sophisticated attacks.

• Email: shughes@postmedia.com | Twitter: StephHughes95

Bank of Canada says some Canadians could see mortgage payments jump by 45% in 2025-26 as rates rise

Canada risks housing-related recession if interest rate hikes get too aggressive

World Bank slashes global forecast by almost a third, warns many countries now face recession

‘You better brace yourself’: Corporate America sounds the alarm on the economy

CBSA officers caught giving preferential treatment, associating with criminals, documents reveal

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The border agency says it concluded 92 'founded' 

investigations last year

Catharine Tunney · CBC News · Posted: Jun 09, 2022 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: 2 hours ago

Canada Border Services Agency workers can stop travellers for questioning, take blood and breath samples and search, detain and arrest people without warrants. Some even carry firearms. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

Canadian border officers have been reprimanded for hundreds of acts of misconduct over the past two years — including preferential treatment and criminal association — according to documents obtained by CBC News.

Details of the cases — all of which were deemed founded — were released under access to information law and cover the period Jan. 1, 2020 to Jan. 1, 2022.

The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) said that, during the last fiscal year, it concluded 92 founded investigations. Of those, 12 saw border officers verbally reprimanded, 42 led to written reprimands and 38 ended in suspensions.

That figure is substantially lower than the number for 2020 — the first year to see a reduction in travel due to the pandemic. In 2020, the CBSA reported 215 founded cases resulting in nine dismissals, 82 suspensions, 52 written reprimands and 27 verbal reprimands. (The figures don't say what happened in the remaining cases.)

A CBSA spokesperson said the agency considers a complaint "founded" if "aspects" of it are found to be "valid."

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While details of these cases — including names and locations — are redacted in the documents released to CBC News, they describe some troubling behaviour at land and air crossings.

In one case, an officer was found to have failed to properly process travellers and vehicle plates — a key component of the job — for three years.

In another, an officer accessed the CBSA's computer system to remove flags from someone's file. Flags are indicators related to an individual's criminal or travel history that are meant to warn CBSA officers that a particular traveller warrants a closer look.

One founded investigation report said only that the officer in question posed "a security risk" and could "harm the agency's reputation."

Ties to Hells Angels

The documents also describe multiple founded cases of criminal association — including one involving an officer who "provided [a] false name when stopped by police while having dinner with [a] cocaine smuggler" and another involving an officer with ties to the Hells Angels.

A handful of cases involved officers engaging in sexual harassment — sexually assaulting a colleague while off duty in one case, spraying insect repellant on a colleague's crotch and sending sexually explicit messages or photographs in others.

Other investigated cases involved interpersonal grievances, such as employees spreading rumours about each other.

The president of the Customs and Immigration Union said he believes the CBSA's approach to discipline sometimes goes too far. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press)

Allegations typically are reviewed by CBSA management through the disciplinary process. If the allegations are serious enough, a senior investigator from the agency's security and professional standards directorate launches a formal investigation.

"The CBSA has a responsibility to address misconduct in the workplace and takes this obligation seriously. CBSA management addresses allegations of misconduct," said CBSA spokesperson Patrick Mahaffy.

"Discipline is managed case by case, and discipline is rendered based on the severity of the allegations and takes into account mitigating and aggravating factors."

Union chief says environment at CBSA 'cold, clinical'

But Mark Weber, president of the Customs and Immigration Union, said he believes the CBSA goes too far in its approach to discipline.

"The serious things are absolutely investigated, and many things that shouldn't go to a formal investigation are also investigated," he said. "Discipline is not supposed to be punitive. It's supposed to be corrective."

While Weber acknowledged some of the founded cases are serious, he called the agency's approach to discipline "extreme."

"Everything is very cold, clinical," he said.

"Over the years, what we have noticed is that the agency has become very formal. Things that used to be dealt with between a manager and an employee with a conversation …'You could have done this differently and it would have gone better' … everything at the CBSA has been centralized and become an official email, an official fact-finding that often happens weeks or months after the event."

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The CBSA remains the only public safety agency in Canada without an independent oversight body for public complaints.

While the National Security and Intelligence Review Agency keeps an eye on CBSA's national security activities, members of the public have to take their complaints about the CBSA's services directly to the agency, which deals with them internally.

Last month, the federal government announced plans to reintroduce legislation to allow travellers and immigration detainees to complain to an independent body if they feel they've been mistreated by Canada's border agency.

"Ultimately, this legislation is about strengthening our law enforcement agencies by strengthening accountability, transparency … and it will lead to a safer country for everyone," said Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino, whose portfolio includes the CBSA.

New complaints commission in the works 

Bill C-20 (previous versions died on the order paper) would replace the Civilian Review and Complaints Commission — the watchdog agency that fields public complaints about the RCMP — with a Public Complaints and Review Commission that would handle complaints about both the RCMP and the CBSA.

Weber said he worries C-20 will put even more pressure on a strained employer-employee relationship at the CBSA.

"We have an employer who is already very heavy-handed in terms of discipline," he said. "Our members are regularly placed on leave without pay, sometimes for a year or more, pending the outcome of investigations."

Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino introduced a bill last month to allow people to complain to an independent body if they feel they've been mistreated by the CBSA. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)

If the bill passes, the new Public Complaints and Review Commission would be able to carry out reviews of any CBSA activities that don't involve matters of national security, either on the commission's own initiative or at the request of the minister.

Weber said he'd like to see the new body take on managerial misconduct as well.

He said that if a complaint "points to a systemic issue," the commission should tackle that issue "rather than everything being directed to the one person that the traveller interacts with."

He said CBSA officers are often stuck "working on mandatory overtime" and sometimes process "hundreds of people" a day.

"Depending on what happens in that circumstance, that might be the reason for the complaints," he said.

Bill C-20 is still awaiting second reading in the House of Commons.