Saturday, December 16, 2023

AMERIKA A HANDMAIDS TALE 
A Black woman was criminally charged after a miscarriage. It shows the perils of pregnancy post-Roe

JULIE CARR SMYTH
Updated Sat, December 16, 2023 

FILE - The U.S. Supreme Court is seen, with a carving of Justice in the foreground, April 19, 2023, in Washington. A Black Ohio woman who miscarried in her bathroom has been charged with abuse of a corpse and awaits grand jury action. Her case has sparked a national firestorm over the plight of pregnant women, especially women of color, following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. 
(AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)More


COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Ohio was in the throes of a bitter debate over abortion rights this fall when Brittany Watts, 21 weeks and 5 days pregnant, began passing thick blood clots.

The 33-year-old Watts, who had not shared the news of her pregnancy even with her family, made her first prenatal visit to a doctor's office behind Mercy Health-St. Joseph's Hospital in Warren, a working-class city about 60 miles (100 kilometers) southeast of Cleveland.

The doctor said that, while a fetal heartbeat was still present, Watts' water had broken prematurely and the fetus she was carrying would not survive. He advised heading to the hospital to have her labor induced, so she could have what amounted to an abortion to deliver the nonviable fetus. Otherwise, she would face “significant risk” of death, according to records of her case.


That was a Tuesday in September. What followed was a harrowing three days entailing: multiple trips to the hospital; Watts miscarrying into, and then flushing and plunging, a toilet at her home; a police investigation of those actions; and Watts, who is Black, being charged with abuse of a corpse. That's a fifth-degree felony punishable by up to a year in prison and a $2,500 fine.

Her case was sent last week to a grand jury. It has touched off a national firestorm over the treatment of pregnant women, and especially Black women, in the aftermath of the U.S. Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision that overturned Roe v. Wade. Civil rights attorney Benjamin Crump elevated Watts’ plight in a post to X, formerly Twitter, and supporters have donated more than $100,000 through GoFundMe for her legal defense, medical bills and trauma counseling.

Whether abortion-seekers should face criminal charges is a matter of debate within the anti-abortion community, but, post-Dobbs, pregnant women like Watts, who was not even trying to get an abortion, have increasingly found themselves charged with “crimes against their own pregnancies,” said Grace Howard, assistant justice studies professor at San José State University.

“Roe was a clear legal roadblock to charging felonies for unintentionally harming pregnancies, when women were legally allowed to end their pregnancies through abortion," she said. “Now that Roe is gone, that roadblock is entirely gone."

Michele Goodwin, a law professor at the University of California, Irvine, and author of “Policing The Womb,” said those efforts have long overwhelmingly targeted Black and brown women.

Even before Roe was overturned, studies show that Black women who visited hospitals for prenatal care were 10 times more likely than white women to have child protective services and law enforcement called on them, even when their cases were similar, she said.

“Post-Dobbs, what we see is kind of a wild, wild West,” said Goodwin. “You see this kind of muscle-flexing by district attorneys and prosecutors wanting to show that they are going to be vigilant, they're going to take down women who violate the ethos coming out of the state's legislature.” She called Black women “canaries in the coal mine” for the “hyper-vigilant type of policing” women of all races might expect from the nation's network of health-care providers, law enforcers and courts now that abortion isn't federally protected.

In Texas, for example, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton mounted an aggressive and successful defense against a white Texas mother, Kate Cox, who sued for permission to skirt the state's restrictive abortion law because her fetus had a fatal condition.

At the time of Watts' miscarriage, abortion was legal in Ohio through 21 weeks, six days of pregnancy. Her lawyer, Traci Timko, said Watts left the hospital on the Wednesday when, coincidentally, her pregnancy arrived at that date — after sitting for eight hours awaiting care.

It turned out the delay was because hospital officials were deliberating over the legalities, Timko said. “It was the fear of, is this going to constitute an abortion and are we able to do that,” she said.

At the time, vigorous campaigning was taking place across Ohio over Issue 1, a proposed amendment to enshrine a right to abortion in Ohio’s constitution. Some of the ads were harshly attacking abortions later in pregnancy, with opponents arguing the issue would allow the return of so-called “partial-birth abortions” and pregnancy terminations “until birth.”

The hospital did not return calls seeking confirmation and comment, but B. Jessie Hill, a law professor at Case Western Reserve University School of Law in Cleveland, said Mercy Health-St. Joseph's was in a bind.

“These are the razor's edge decisions that health care providers are being forced to make," she said. "And all the incentives are pushing hospitals to be conservative, because on the other side of this is criminal liability. That's the impact of Dobbs.”

Watts had been admitted to the Catholic hospital twice that week with vaginal bleeding, but she left without being treated. A nurse told the 911 dispatcher that Watts returned no longer pregnant on that Friday. She said Watts told her, “the baby’s in her backyard in a bucket,” and that she didn't want to have a child.

Timko said Watts insists she doesn't recall saying the pregnancy was unwanted; it was unintended, but she had always wanted to give her mother a grandchild. Her lawyer believes Watts may have meant that she didn't want to fish what she knew was a dead fetus from the bucket of blood, tissue and feces that she’d scooped from her overflowing toilet.

“This 33-year-old girl with no criminal record is demonized for something that goes on every day,” she told Warren Municipal Court Judge Terry Ivanchak during Watts’ recent preliminary hearing.

Warren Assistant Prosecutor Lewis Guarnieri told Ivanchak that Watts left home for a hair appointment after miscarrying, leaving the toilet clogged. Police would later find the fetus wedged in the pipes.

“The issue isn't how the child died, when the child died,” Guarnieri told the judge, according to TV station WKBN. “It's the fact the baby was put into a toilet, was large enough to clog up the toilet, left in that toilet, and she went on (with) her day.”

In court, Timko bristled at Guarnieri's suggestion.

“You cannot be broadcasting any clearer that you just don’t get it,” she said in an interview, suggesting Watts was scared, anxious and traumatized by the experience. “She’s trying to protect Mama. She doesn’t want to get her hair done. She wants to stop bleeding like crazy and start grieving her fetus, what she's just been through.”

As chief counsel to the county’s child assault protection unit, Assistant Trumbull County Prosecutor Diane Barber is the lead prosecutor on Watts’ case.

Barber said she couldn’t speak specifically about the case other than to note that the county was compelled to move forward with it once it was bound over from municipal court. She said she doesn’t expect a grand jury finding this month.

“About 20% of the cases get no-billed, (as in) they do not get indicted and the case does not proceed,” she said.

The size and stage of development of Watts' fetus — precisely the point when abortion crossed from legal to illegal without exceptions — became an issue during her preliminary hearing.

A county forensic investigator reported feeling “what appeared to be a small foot with toes” inside Watts' toilet. Police seized the toilet and broke it apart to retrieve the intact fetus as evidence.

Testimony and an autopsy confirmed that the fetus died in utero before passing through the birth canal. In regard to abuse, the examination identified “no recent injuries.”

Ivanchak acknowledged the case's complexities.

“There are better scholars than I am to determine the exact legal status of this fetus, corpse, body, birthing tissue, whatever it is,” he said from the bench. “Matter of fact, I'm assuming that's what ... Issue 1's all about: at what point something becomes viable.”

Timko, a former prosecutor, said Ohio's abuse-of-corpse statute is vague. It prohibits treating “a human corpse" in a way that would “outrage” reasonable family or community sensibilities.

"From a legal perspective, there's no definition of ‘corpse,’" she said. “Can you be a corpse if you never took a breath?”

Howard said clarity on what about Watts' behavior constituted a crime is essential.

“For rights of people with the capacity for pregnancy, this is huge," she said. "Her miscarriage was entirely ordinary. So I just want to know what (the prosecutor) thinks she should have done. If we are going to require people to collect and bring used menstrual products to hospitals so that they can make sure it is indeed a miscarriage, it’s as ridiculous and invasive as it is cruel."


Grieving mothers are not criminals. Brittany Watts, Kate Cox cases show cruelty to women.

Ray Marcano
The Columbus Dispatch
Opinion
Thu, December 14, 2023

Jun 24, 2022; Columbus, OH, USA; Alexis Voss, Obetz, wears her sign on her shirt, during an abortion rights protest at the Ohio State House, after the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v Wade.


Historically, men have used power and place to subjugate people of color and women.

But the recent shameful and cruel patriarchal behavior should be enough for all decent people to scream, enough.

Ohio, Texas, Missouri, and Florida all highlight some of the most egregious examples that show the abuse of male power results in cruelty to women.

Right here in Ohio, Brittany Watts, 33, has been charged with felony abuse of a corpse in Trumbull County because she had a stillborn baby at home.

Watts was 22 weeks pregnant when she went to the bathroom and delivered the stillborn baby. A forensic pathologist testified the autopsy showed no injury to the fetus and it would not have lived.

But authorities allege that after the miscarriage, Watts tried to plunge the toilet with the fetus in it. That gave the law all it needed to arrest and charge a grieving woman who just lost a child.

It’s just as bad in Texas, where the state attorney general tried to force a Dallas women, Kate Cox, to carry and bear a child that has a rare and almost certainly fatal disorder.

Doctors diagnosed Cox’s fetus with trisomy 18, a rare chromosomal disorder. Some 90 to 95% of all children die within the first year.

Most die within a couple of days or weeks.

Ohio GOP lawmakers an unhinged. Vows to chuck abortion, weed vote proof

Women shouldn't be forced to give birth to dead fetuses

Kate Cox can't get abortion for now, Texas Supreme Court court says, halting judge's OK https://t.co/ZGbykWEHuD
— USA TODAY (@USATODAY) December 9, 2023

In the very small number of cases that these babies survive, they need a lifetime of round the clock care because of the damage the disorder causes to internal organs, especially the heart.

These powerful Texas men wanted Cox to endure even more pain by forcing her to have a baby that will likely die during delivery or be dead shortly thereafter.

Who believes a woman should carry a dead fetus to term? Raise your hand. Defend it.

I want to hear this one.

And don’t give me the, well, there’s a small chance. We don’t force people who have a “small chance” of overcoming life-threatening cancer to get treatment if they don’t want to.

Cox had enough and left Texas to have her procedure in a place not nearly as unfeeling as the Longhorn State and the men who run it.

The Texas cases mirrors the horror that a pregnant Florida woman when, 24 weeks into her pregnancy, learned her fetus had no kidneys and would not survive. She couldn’t get an abortion in Florida, so she gave birth and watched helplessly as her baby died within a day.

That’s cruel.


Grieving mothers should not be treated like criminals


In Missouri, some lawmakers want to charge women who have an abortion with homicide.

Let that sink in for a second. If a woman, late in pregnancy, finds out her child will die at birth, she would have to choose between the agony of carrying a dead fetus in her body or potentially ending up in jail.

These are just a few of the efforts across the country to treat women like things and not people. It’s a conscious effort by men — the vast of majority of them who are white —to do more than place their anti-abortion values on a segment of society.

It’s an effort to keep women in their place by denying them domain over their own bodies and stripping them of the ability to make decisions in their best physical and emotional interest.

Now, they’re gleefully adding a psychological torture component by forcing these women to give birth to a dead child.

None of this is about abortion. It’s about patriarchy and doing whatever it takes to keep women under the thumb of powerful men.

Patriarchy means, in part, “a system of society or government in which men hold the power and women are largely excluded from it.” The definition should say “white men,” but maybe that goes without saying.

The definition matters less than the actions these men perpetuate. We need to be on the side of women who find themselves under attack by men who pleasure themselves with obscene powerplays.

It needs to stop.


Ray Marcano, a longtime journalist, is the former national president of the Society of Professional Journalists, a two-time Pulitzer juror, and a Fulbright fellow. He is a long-time journalist with writing and editing experience at some of the country’s largest media brands. He is a frequent Columbus Dispatch contributor.

This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Texas' Kate Cox, Ohio's Brittany Watts cases show abuse of male power

That Texas Abortion Case Is Even Worse Than You Think

Philip Elliott
TIME
Fri, December 15, 2023 

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks outside of the US Supreme Court in Washington, DC in 2021. Credit - Mandel Ngan—AFP via Getty Images

This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIME’s politics newsletter. Sign up here to get stories like this sent to your inbox.

So much of the national conversation this week has been about Kate Cox, the 31-year-old mom who had to flee Texas to have an abortion to end a doomed pregnancy as the state's Supreme Court slowly decided to substitute its judgment for her doctor’s advice.

But what’s been missing from most of the talk about this case is this reality: Texas has at least three separate laws on the books designed to make getting an abortion nearly impossible. Those overlapping, vague statutes not only create one of the most restrictive environments in the country for reproductive rights, but shaped Cox’s case in ways that many following her ordeal likely missed. It also shows how even minor details can matter, especially when judges have political bents and time is an urgent component.

To understand the lay of the land that Cox, her family, and her doctor were facing, we need to look at what Texas lawmakers put in place before Dobbs, the 2022 case that invalidated a half-century of protections enshrined in Roe v. Wade. A year earlier, Texas passed a so-called “trigger ban” that would outlaw abortions should the Supreme Court overturn Roe. We’ll call this Ban A. It serves up a felony life sentence for health care providers who perform abortions and a $100,000 fine.

A second 2021 law—let’s call it Ban B—was a novel attempt at effectively banning most abortions in Texas without waiting for the Supreme Court to give permission, and it largely succeeded. That law runs along civil lines by deputizing neighbors and strangers to enforce it through lawsuits. Under Ban B (also known as S.B. 8), even an Uber driver who ferries a customer to a place where abortions are performed can be civilly charged. Critics have labeled it a Bounty Law. Yet unlike Ban A, Ban B isn’t a complete ban, though it functions as one in practice. It blocks most pregnant individuals from seeking an abortion after about six weeks, or when lawmakers decided there exists a beating “fetal heart”—a term doctors do not use, because a fetus at that point does not yet have a heart. (What abortion opponents describe as a heartbeat at that stage is actually the electrical impulses developing cells start to emit.)
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Finally, there is Ban C, which are the pre-Roe laws in Texas, dating back to the state’s first criminal code of 1857. At that time, the state had a ban on abortion—including the funding of it—except in cases when the pregnant person’s life was at risk. The penalty? Five years in prison for those providing the care. Texas officials have asserted that those laws snapped back into effect when Roe fell.

All three abortion bans include language that provides exceptions when the health of the pregnant person is in question, although the specific definitions and conditions are different and vague. (None, it also should be noted, holds the pregnant party criminally liable.)

This all created a legal and medical minefield for Kate Cox, the Dallas-area mother of two who has been public about wanting, in her words, “a large family.” When Cox and her family learned the fetus she was carrying had tested positive for a genetic condition that almost always results in a miscarriage or stillbirth, she took action. She had already been to the hospital four times in two weeks seeking emergency attention and worried what this troubled pregnancy would mean for her future potential; her doctor agreed that an abortion would leave her with the greatest potential for a pregnancy at a future date.

But Cox’s situation ran afoul of Ban B, the law that bans most pregnancies after about six weeks in the name of the “fetal heartbeat” threshold. And remember, under Ban B, anyone who helps Cox get an abortion could be liable for a civil lawsuit by a complete stranger. It also, of course, might have been considered an illegal abortion under Ban A, the trigger ban, meaning her doctor could be jailed for life and fined at least $100,000. Or maybe just Ban C, meaning only five years in jail.

All of this explains why not only Cox, but her husband, and her doctor wanted to have her standing resolved and some protections put in place for her future, and theirs.

A district judge agreed with those concerns last week, allowing Cox to move forward with receiving an abortion.

Then Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton lept to action. He asked the Texas Supreme Court to step in and enforce the state’s anti-abortion bans—all of them. For good measure, he gave notice to area hospitals and doctors that they would face felony prosecutions and civil penalties if they helped Cox.

The state Supreme Court—all nine elected Republicans, mind you—heard the case and sided on Monday with Paxton, who said Cox’s case didn’t meet the medical exception. They said the proper standard for allowing the termination of a pregnancy, then at 20 weeks, was enshrined in law as a “reasonable medical judgment.” Cox’s doctor, by contrast, said she held a “good-faith belief” that Cox met the exception.

The court, however, said the “good-faith belief” was incompatible with the law’s standard of “reasonable medical judgment” that Cox faced a life-threatening condition. (Of course, neither are defined in any of the state’s bans, giving hair-splitting Paxton a win because the doctor didn’t use the magic words.) The justices then entered Kafkaesque territory—implying that if an abortion was actually needed, it would have already been done, and asking the state medical board for guidance—advice, of course, that doesn’t change the law’s text.

Given the GOP’s partisan monopoly in Texas, the outcome was largely expected. So much so that Cox had already fled Texas to receive an abortion in another state while awaiting the ruling.

Stories like Cox’s are just the tip of the iceberg in a post-Dobbs world. Twenty one states have banned abortion or restrict the procedure earlier in pregnancy than Roe allowed. Texas went from reporting more than 50,000 abortions in 2020 to 34 recorded through September of this year, according to state health statistics. Polling shows Texans don’t love the new limits, but Republicans dominate the political and judicial landscape. And a conservative U.S. Supreme Court seems completely fine with such restrictions. Even before Dobbs, they had blessed Texas’ legally thorny efforts with Ban B, creating a model that other red states have followed.

But the developments this week speak to the problems when laws lack definition and are left in the hands of partisan interpreters. Talk to anyone who reads—or writes—laws for a living, and there are two clear camps in state capitol buildings or here in Washington: the detail-obsessed nitpickers who want the legislation on their desk to define all of its terms or at least point to previously passed definitions; and the ambivalent regulationists who are happy to let bureaucrats frame the scope through rulemaking. Lacking definitions can give wide wiggle room to folks like Cabinet secretaries, agency administrators, and, yes, even judges. Incomplete legislative text yields imprecise readings and incomplete legal recourse for situations like the one facing Cox.

And, in that gray area, abortion foes can have tremendous power in leaving things vague, especially in a state when there are at least three anti-abortion laws in play. It provides for loopholes that can be exploited by anyone with enough imagination, nitpickery, and endurance. And it’s exactly the thing that specific-minded folks wandering legislative hallways spend their nights obsessing over. Because if there had been some specificity in Texas’ law, and had any of the bans grappled with the other ones still on the books, Cox would not have been forced to flee in a high-profile case that, in most states, would have been handled in the privacy of the doctor’s office. So the next time either party complains about the size of legislation—so many pages!—understand that a good chunk of those pages are probably defining terms that really, really matter.

Write to Philip Elliott at philip.elliott@time.com.


Dozens of Texas businesses back challenge to abortion ban: ‘This is why our economy is taking a hit’

Saul Elbein
Thu, December 14, 2023 


Ambiguities in Texas’s abortion ban are making it harder for businesses in the state to recruit, a coalition of businesses argued Thursday.

Fifty-one businesses have signed onto an amicus brief filed by in-house counsel at dating site Bumble, which was filed in support of 22 women suing the state over the abortion ban.

The plaintiffs in that case — Zurawski v. Texas — are 20 former patients who argue that they were denied medically necessary abortions because physicians were afraid of legal consequences.

As a tech company largely run by women, Bumble CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd said she feels it has a duty not just to provide access to health care, “but to speak out – and speak loudly – against the retrogression of women’s rights.”

The businesses signing onto the letter — which include dating sites Bumble and Match Group (the parent company of Match.com and Tinder), advertising giants Preacher and GSD&M, event organizers SXSW and the United States Women’s Chamber of Commerce as well as dozens of Texas real estate, law firms and restaurant groups — argued that the state’s abortion laws make it unattractive for families looking to move to a place where they can have children.

In the wake of the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, Texas has enacted a near-total ban on abortion after a fetus has a heartbeat, which typically occurs around 6 weeks into pregnancy and often before a woman knows she is pregnant.

After that point, the state allows the procedure only when it’s deemed medically necessary — an exception that the Zurawski plaintiffs, and others, argue is overly ambiguous and has not translated into legal abortions in the real world.

The uncertainty in those laws “has impacted, and will continue to impact, companies doing business in Texas, companies thinking about doing business in Texas, employees living in or traveling to Texas, and individuals considering relocating to Texas,” the companies wrote in the letter.

“Because of those undeniable realities, businesses are now forced to confront this issue head on — not for moral or legal reasons — but to keep the lights on and people working, making money,” it continues.

“No sector of the Texas economy is immune.”

The state’s GOP leadership has sought to attract transplants from other states to Texas, which it has cast as a pro-business, small government paradise: a place with no income tax and consistent local regulations and where parents’ rights in schools reign supreme.

But the Bumble letter draws together case studies of prospective transplants — including oil company executives — who decided against moving to Texas based on their desire to start a family.

It also emphasizes the risk felt even by women who are visiting the state on business — or for the lucrative professional conventions that Texas cities compete to attract.

In 2023, for example, the Society of Women Engineers (SWE) — an organization with 40,000 members — announced it would not hold conferences in “any location where there are limits on reproductive” health care, a list that incudes Texas.

The SWE was joined in this move by other professional societies, like the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology, and the Journal of Urology, which cited the duty of conference organizers “to reasonably ensure female urologists can safely attend without the threat of catastrophic health consequences.”

The Bumble filing draws on research that found that nearly half of young women in nine battleground states are considering or making plans to move to a state with “comprehensive protections” for reproductive health care, and nearly two-thirds of college educated workers nationwide would not consider a job in a state with abortion restrictions.

To make matters worse, women and their doctors don’t have a clear picture of what conditions are exceptional enough to allow them to secure abortions under the exception for medically necessary cases, filing author Sarah Stewart of law firm Reed Smith told The Hill.

“The Zurawski question is: what standard doctors need to meet? Is it good faith medical judgment or something else?” Stewart asked.

Stewart added that the inherent complication and unintended consequences that attend pregnancy make a set-it-and-forget-it list of exceptions untenable. “If it’s an objective standard, then the state will always be able to come up with another doctor who will testify that the abortion wasn’t necessary — so that brings no comfort, and no clarity and certainty to the doctor,” she told The Hill.

In essence, Stewart added, the exceptions leave state doctors in the same place as an explicit ban, only now “with the threat of very severe consequences if it turns out that they guessed wrong.”

All this means that the abortion ban is costing the state $15 billion per year in lost revenue as qualified candidates go elsewhere and women of childbearing age stay out of the workforce, according to a 2021 report by the Institute for Women’s Policy Research cited in the Bumble letter.

The businesses that signed on to the Bumble filing argue that these costs are falling on them. To draw people to states where abortion bans are in place, businesses are now having to beef up their medical policies to pay for travel so that employees can get reproductive health care outside the state, the letter notes — something that corporations from Microsoft and Disney to Google and Wells Fargo now offer.

Critics of Texas’s abortion laws, passed in 2021 and 2022, have pointed to the disjunction between the start-point of the state’s ban and the timeline when most women learn they’re pregnant as a troubling source of uncertainty.

The Bumble letter — and the broader Zurawski challenge it is a part of — emphasize that the laws’ cut-off point also conflicts with another timeline: the one when some women with badly wanted pregnancies receive the brutal news that their fetuses have serious medical conditions.

The state’s ban kicks in long before parents get such news.

For example, genetic testing — which can reveal lethal fetal abnormalities like trisomy 13, Tay Sachs or anencephaly — can only be performed after about 10 weeks of pregnancy.

That testing is how Kate Cox — the Dallas-area woman at the center of a court battle over the ban who recently fled Texas to secure an out-of-state abortion — found out roughly 20 weeks into pregnancy that the fetus she was carrying had trisomy 18, a rare and generally fatal condition that leads to rampant abnormalities throughout the body.

Like many of the Zurawski plaintiffs, Cox was told by her doctors that her health would be at risk if she didn’t get an abortion — but she was unable to obtain the procedure under the state’s ban despite its exception for medically necessary cases.

The standard for this exception, Zurawski plaintiffs argue, is dangerously unclear, and the penalties for doctors who get it wrong are very high. Those can include felony charges of up to 99 years in prison, civil fines of up to $100,000 and — even if the state ignores the case — potential lawsuits under Senate Bill 8 from any private citizen who feels the abortion was unnecessary.

That’s a restrictive understanding of the ban — but also one the Texas Supreme Court seemed to affirm in Cox’s case.

The court ruled Monday evening that protections are available to doctors who perform abortions only if the mother’s life is definitely at risk, and that since Cox’s doctor had not used the phrase “life-threatening physical condition” in the filing that sought to secure her an abortion, she had not met the standard.

Similarly to Cox, Zurawski plaintiff Lauren Hall had to travel to Washington to get an abortion after her fetus was diagnosed with anencephaly — a fatal condition in which a fetus develops without a skull or brain.

In that case, Hall recalled to The Texas Tribune, her doctor advised her to sneak out of state.

The state Legislature in 2023 passed some reforms allowing abortion in limited cases. But the court’s Monday ruling on Cox’s case strongly implies that little has changed in the law’s practical application since Hall’s flight.

Cases like those tell women thinking of a move to Texas that the state is “fundamentally unserious” about protecting women and newborns, said Rachel O’Leary Carmona, executive director of Women’s March.

O’Leary Carmona said that dynamic is particularly clear when the abortion ban is stacked up against Texas’s high maternal mortality rate and its lack of mandatory paid maternity leave or state support for recent mothers.

“There’s not any demonstrable policy that deals with the issue of actually giving women the support that they need to have to have a reasonable choice to become a mother,” she added.

The Bumble letter echoed those concerns. As medical practitioners leave Texas to avoid being caught in its abortion ambiguities, it’s creating a feedback loop “that further pushes away business and workers,” Stewart wrote.

Cox’s case, she said, “are why businesses will continue to struggle to recruit and retain talent. This is why pregnant women from other states are hesitant to travel to Texas for business meetings. This is why doctors are leaving the state.”

“This is why our economy is taking a hit.”

— Updated at 12:39 p.m.
Paying people to replant tropical forests − and letting them harvest the timber − can pay off for climate, justice and environment

Jefferson S. Hall, Smithsonian Institution; 
Katherine Sinacore, Smithsonian Institution, 
Michiel van Breugel, National University of Singapore
Fri, December 15, 2023 
THE CONVERSATION

Planting trees on deforested lands in Panama. Jorge Aleman/Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute


Tropical forest landscapes are home to millions of Indigenous peoples and small-scale farmers. Just about every square meter of land is spoken for, even if claims are not formally recognized by governments.

These local landholders hold the key to a valuable solution as the world tries to slow climate change – restoring deforested tropical landscapes for a healthier future.

Tropical forests are vital to Earth’s climate and biodiversitybut a soccer field-size area of mature tropical forest is burned or cut down about every 5 seconds to clear space for crops and cattle today.


While those trees may be lost, the land still has potential. Tropical forests’ combination of year-round sunshine and high rainfall can lead to high growth rates, suggesting that areas where tropical forests once grew could be valuable sites for reforestation. In fact, a host of international agreements and declarations envision just this.

For reforestation projects to make a dent in climate change, however, they have to work with and for the people who live there.

As forest ecologists involved in tropical forest restoration, we have been studying effective ways to compensate people for the ecosystem services flowing from their land. In a new study, we show how compensation that also allows landholders to harvest and sell some of the trees could provide powerful incentives and ultimately benefit everyone.
The extraordinary value of ecosystem services

Tropical forests are celebrated for their extraordinary biodiversity, with their preservation seen as essential for protecting life on Earth. They are reservoirs of vast carbon stocks, slowing down climate change. However, when tropical forests are cleared and burned, they release copious amounts of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that drives climate change.

Programs offering payments for ecosystem services are designed to help keep those forests and other ecosystems healthy by compensating landholders for goods and services produced by nature that are often taken for granted. For example, forests moderate stream flows and reduce flood risks, support bees and other pollinators that benefit neighboring croplands, and help regulate climate.

Tropical forests burned or clear-cut can be restored, like these newly planted (upper left) and naturally regrowing (lower right) watersheds at Agua Salud in Panama. Marcos Guerra/Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute

In recent years, a cottage industry has grown up around paying people to reforest land for the carbon it can hold. It has been driven in part by corporations and other institutions looking for ways to meet their commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions by paying projects to reduce or prevent emissions elsewhere.

Early iterations of projects that pay landholders for ecosystem services have been criticized for focusing too much on economic efficiency, sometimes at the expense of social and environmental concerns.

Win-win solutions – where environmental and social concerns are both accounted for – may not be the most economically efficient in the short term, but they can lead to longer-term sustainability as participants feel a sense of pride and responsibility for the project’s success.

That longer-term sustainability is essential for trees’ carbon storage, because many decades of growth is required to build up stored carbon and combat climate change.
Why timber can be a triple win

In the study, we looked at ways to maximize all three priorities – environmental, economic and social benefits – in forest restoration, focusing on infertile land.

It may come as a surprise, but most soils in the tropics are extraordinarily infertile, with concentrations of phosphorus and other essential nutrients an order of magnitude or more lower than in crop-producing areas of the northern hemisphere. This makes restoring tropical forests through reforestation more complex than simply planting trees – these areas also require maintenance.

Species like Terminalia amazonia, valuable for commercial logging, can grow quickly, storing carbon in their wood as they grow. Andres Hernandez/Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute

In our study we used some 1.4 million tree measurements taken over 15 years at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute’s Agua Salud site in Panama to project carbon sequestration and potential timber revenues. We looked at naturally regrowing forests, native tree species plantations and an effort to rehabilitate a failed teak plantation by planting high-value native trees known to grow on low-fertility soils to test routes to profitability.

One set of solutions stood out: We found that giving landholders both payments for carbon storage and the ability to generate revenue through timber production on the land could lead to vibrant forests and financial gains for the landholder.

It may seem counterintuitive to suggest timber harvesting when the goal is to restore forests, but allowing landholders to generate timber revenue can give them an incentive to protect and manage planted forests over time.

Regrowing trees on a deforested landscape, whether natural regrowth or plantations, is a net win for climate change, as trees take vast amounts of carbon out of the atmosphere. New forests that are selectively logged or plantations that are harvested in 30 to 80 years can help slow climate change while the world cuts emissions and expands carbon capture technologies.
Reliable payments matter

The structure of the payments is also important. We found that reliable annual carbon payments to rural landlords to regrow forests could match or surpass the income they might otherwise get from clearing land for cattle, thus making the transition to raising trees possible.

When cash payments are based instead on measurements of tree growth, they can vary widely year to year and among planting strategies. With the costs involved, that can stand in the way of effective land management to combat climate change.

A chart of three different types of forest restoration shows how variable payments for carbon storage would be if they were based on measured growth rather than average growth over 30 years. When payments decline over time, the incentive to nurture and protect those forests disappears. The blue line represents a flat payment of US$130 per hectare. Agua Salud/Smithsonian InstitutionCC BY-NDMore

Using flat annual payments instead guarantees a stable income and will help encourage more landholders to enroll. We are now using that method in Panama’s Indigenous Ngäbe-Buglé Comarca. The project pays residents to plant and nurture native trees over 20 years.
Shifting risk to buyers of carbon offsets

From a practical perspective, flat annual carbon payments and other cost-sharing strategies to plant trees shift the burden of risk from participants to carbon buyers, often companies in wealthy countries.

The landholders get paid even if actual growth of the trees falls short, and everyone benefits from the ecosystem services provided.

While win-win solutions may not initially appear to be economically efficient, our work helps to illustrate a viable path forward – where environmental, social and economic objectives can be met.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and analysis to help you make sense of our complex world.

It was written by: Jefferson S. HallSmithsonian InstitutionKatherine SinacoreSmithsonian Institution, and Michiel van BreugelNational University of Singapore.

Read more:

How debt-for-climate swaps can help solve low-income countries’ crushing debt and environmental challenges at the same time

The great Amazon land grab – how Brazil’s government is clearing the way for deforestation

Katherine Sinacore receives funding from the Mark and Rachel Rohr Foundation, Stanly Motta, Frank and Kristin Levinson, the Hoch family, and the Smithsonian.

Michiel van Breugel receives funding from Singapore’s Ministry of Education and the Future Cities Lab Global Program of the ETH-Singapore Centre, which is funded by National Research Foundation Singapore.


Guy Who Urged Planting a Trillion Trees Begs People to Stop Planting So Many Trees

Frank Landymore
Sat, December 16, 2023 


No Treegrets


In 2019, ecologist Thomas Crowther sparked a global tree-planting craze to offset carbon emissions.

But now the former chief scientific adviser for the United Nation's Trillion Trees Campaign has had a change of heart, Wired reports, pleading with environmental leaders to bring their mass tree planting to a halt.

Taking the stand at this year's UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai, Crowther spelled out the overlooked drawbacks of mass tree planting, such as stifling biodiversity and not being as effective carbon capturers as once believed.

Most insidiously of all, he warned that tree planting is used "as an excuse to avoid cutting emissions," as quoted by Wired.

"If no one had ever said, 'Plant a trillion trees,' I think we'd have been in a lot better space," he added. "But maybe there wouldn't have been so much noise and attention on nature, so that all the very responsible scientists who are here could correct it and turn it into something that is good."

Taking Root

In 2019, Crowther and his team published a soon-to-be blockbuster study with a bold and controversial conclusion: that the Earth could fit another 1.2 trillion trees. This highlights "global tree restoration," the researchers wrote in the paper, "as our most effective climate change solution to date."

At the time, some scientists criticized the paper as overestimating both the amount of carbon trees could absorb and the amount of land that could viably be forested.

But the optimism it instilled was too infectious to die down. After all, trees were a seemingly easy solution to our existential climate woes.

Big oil companies like Shell immediately capitalized by pledging to spend hundreds of millions of dollars in reforestation initiatives. The social media campaign Team Trees that aimed to plant 20 million saplings became a viral sensation, securing a million-dollar donation from Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

Planter's Remorse

Despite the craze and widespread optimism, carbon emissions ironically continued to climb. Ever since, Crowther's work has taken a more measured, sober tone.

His latest study, published last month in the journal Nature, takes aim at "greenwashing," the deceitful practice by companies — and countries — in which they flaunt their supposedly eco-friendly efforts to overshadow their heinous environmental practices.

Crowther, by speaking at the climate summit, wanted to kill the practice.

"Killing greenwashing doesn't mean stop investing in nature," he said, per Wired. "It means doing it right. It means distributing wealth to the Indigenous populations and farmers and communities who are living with biodiversity."

What's more, Crowther believes that the focus should now be on preserving existing forests rather than planting new ones. According to his research, letting existing woodlands expand and mature naturally will offset around 50 percent more carbon in the long run.

Even so, the role that carbon offsetting plays in our fight against climate change remains hotly contested — but continuing to destroy precious forests certainly doesn't help.

More on climate change: Carbon Dioxide Is Becoming More Fearsome, Scientists Find
Family of Indian man linked to Sikh murder plot asks court for consular help

Arpan Chaturvedi
Fri, December 15, 2023


By Arpan Chaturvedi

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - The family of an Indian man in Czech custody, whom the U.S. accuses of involvement in an unsuccessful plot to kill a Sikh separatist on American soil, on Friday asked India's top court to direct the government to give him consular assistance.

The man, Nikhil Gupta, 52, has been accused by U.S. federal prosecutors of working with an Indian government official on the plot to kill a New York City resident who advocated for a sovereign Sikh state in northern India.

Gupta was arrested by Czech authorities in June when he travelled from India to Prague and is awaiting extradition to the U.S.

The Gupta family petition said he was "illegally detained" in Prague, denied the right to contact his family in India and the freedom to seek legal representation.

It requested the court direct the Indian government to provide Gupta with consular assistance to ensure he gets a fair extradition hearing in Prague.

The court posted the petition for hearing on Jan. 4.

India has expressed concern about one of its government officials being linked to the plot, from which it dissociated itself, and said it would carry out its own investigation.

The Indian foreign ministry spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment from Reuters on Friday.

The case is delicate for both Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government and the Biden administration as they try to build closer ties in the face of an ascendant China perceived as a threat for both democracies.

It comes two months after Canada said there were "credible" allegations linking Indian agents to the June murder of a Sikh separatist leader, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in a Vancouver suburb, a contention India has rejected.

(Editing by YP Rajesh and Christina Fincher)
UPDATES
COP28 climate deal 'stab in the back', activist Greta Thunberg says

Reuters
Fri, December 15, 2023 

The March for Climate and Justice, in Amsterdam

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - The COP 28 climate deal reached with huge fanfare this week in Dubai is a stab in the back for the nations most affected by global warming and won't stop temperatures rising beyond critical levels, activist Greta Thunberg said on Friday.

Nearly 200 countries agreed at the summit to begin reducing global consumption of fossil fuel and adopt a raft of measures, including more clean energy production, to avert the worst effects of climate change.

But critics say the deal will not prevent global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, which scientists say will trigger catastrophic and irreversible impacts, from melting ice sheets to the collapse of ocean currents

"This text is toothless and it is nowhere even close to being sufficient to keep us within the 1.5 degree limit," Thunberg told Reuters outside Sweden's parliament where she and a handful of other protesters were calling for climate justice.

"It is a stab in the back for those most vulnerable."

The Alliance of Small Island States, which includes countries most affected by climate change like Fiji, Tuvalu and Kiribati, said the agreement was full of loopholes and was "incremental and not transformational".

Thunberg, 20, who shot to fame as the face of climate activism in 2018 after she started staging weekly protests in Sweden, said the pact was not designed to solve the climate crisis but as "an alibi" for world leaders that allowed them to ignore global warming.

"As long as we don't treat the climate crisis as a crisis and as long as we keep lobby interests influencing these texts and these processes, we are not going to get anywhere," she said.

(Reporting by Ilze Filks, writing by Simon Johnson, editing by Nick Macfie)

Petrol states are hosting climate summits. Maybe that’s not a bad thing?
Zack Budryk
Sat, December 16, 2023 


Azerbaijan will host the 2024 United Nations COP29 climate summit, the second in a row to take place in a major producer of oil, after this year’s event in the United Arab Emirates.

But after the unexpected breakthroughs at this year’s meeting, some are hoping that the conferences can make progress when held in countries built on oil wealth.

Putting COP28 in Dubai prompted widespread skepticism. The UAE is an OPEC member, and its oil and gas production makes up more than a quarter of its gross domestic product.

How much progress on climate change was possible at a summit hosted by a country so dependent on oil production? Such questions were underlined when COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber claimed there was “no science” behind calls for phasing out fossil fuels, sparking outrage among attendees.

Yet the international talks came to a strong conclusion, with a final agreement that called for a “transition away” from fossil fuels for the first time in the COP’s history. This followed OPEC pressing nations late in the talks to block such language.

Both the breakthrough and the initial skepticism loom large after Baku was chosen as the site for the 2024 conference.

Azerbaijan is one of the biggest oil and gas producers in the Caucasus region. Its oil industry goes back to the mid-19th century, most of it produced offshore in the Caspian Sea for export, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

“Ideally we wouldn’t be hosting COP with another petrochemical state,” said Cherelle Blazer, director of international climate policy at the Sierra Club, who attended the Dubai summit. “I think there’s less known about the dynamics, [but] guarded optimism for sure” ahead of COP29.

Azerbaijan, unlike the UAE, is not an OPEC member but has been invited to join. Brazil, which has been selected as the 2025 host, is an OPEC member that produced about 2.94 million barrels of oil per day in 2020.

“We have to continue to make progress with what we just accomplished at COP28, but I don’t think this is ideal for sure,” Blazer said. “We saw that open interference by OPEC, and I assume they would do the same thing next year. I assume they’ll apply the same pressure next year, even though the host country may not be [a member].”

A major oil producer hosting the summit “doesn’t have to preclude meaningful progress but I think it makes it more difficult,” Blazer added. “This is a conference that’s supposed to be protecting the environment, [but] it is a bit more of the fox guarding the henhouse.”

Ultimately, “a lot of this exercise is performative, marketing and greenwashing,” said Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia Business School.

“The key bit is to figure out how to have real change on the ground,” Wagner added.

Even COPs hosted by petrostates, he said, could effect meaningful change merely by rethinking their urban design to improve features such as public transportation, “transforming the city itself as a result of this traveling circus.”

“They have a lot of oil wealth — they could, if they wanted to, put in the Beijing metro system times two,” he said.

Wagner expressed hope that between now and COP29, Baku can add features including rapid bus lanes, “so when those 100,000 people show up, maybe do it for that one event and keep going.”

Kaveh Guilanpour, vice president for international strategies at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, noted that numerous European oil and gas producers have hosted COP summits in the past and that, despite skepticism around the Dubai COP, it was the site of unprecedented progress on fossil fuel language.

The U.S. itself is producing more oil and gas than ever before, and climate advocates have said it must also lead by example if it intends to ask the same of other countries.

“We have to square up what we say we want to do with what we’re actually doing,” Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) said Thursday at The Hill’s “Enhancing Energy Efficiency: How Technology is Cutting Carbon Emissions” event. “You can’t teach temperance from a barstool.”

Guilanpour said he did not see evidence that Dubai sought to water things down at the recently concluded summit.

He said it’s possible that the UAE’s position in the Global South and the international oil market gave it credibility among participants, and that this might have led to a stronger final agreement.

“I think it would have been much harder for a Northern country to have had the dynamic and the trust of, for example, regional partners and other fossil fuel producers,” he said. He contrasted it with less forceful language on coal that participants agreed to at the 2021 COP summit in Glasgow, Scotland.

“People who were certainly skeptical going into the COP[28] weren’t saying that by the second week,” he added.


COP28: Is it really the beginning of the end for fossil fuels? Here’s what history tells us

Euronews Green
Fri, December 15, 2023 

COP28: Is it really the beginning of the end for fossil fuels? Here’s what history tells us


On Wednesday, United Nations climate negotiators made a "historic" declaration that the world must transition away from oil, gas and coal. It is the first time in nearly 30 years of climate talks that the need to reduce fossil fuels has been included in the final deal.

But will countries keep their word by moving away from planet-warming fossil fuels and toward more green energies like solar and wind?

History may provide some insight into that question. Below are five of the most important decisions to come from climate talks, and what has happened since.

COP28 strikes ‘historic’ deal to transition away from fossil fuels: What are the key takeaways?
Kyoto Protocol promises emissions cuts in 1997

The third-ever UN climate summit took place in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997 - one of the warmest years recorded in the 20th century.

Known as the Kyoto Protocol, the agreement made there asked 41 high-emitting countries across the world and the European Union to cut their emissions by a little more than 5 per cent compared to 1990 levels.

Emissions cuts can come from many places, from deploying green energies like wind and solar that don't directly produce CO2 to generate power to making things that do, like vehicles with combustible engines, run more cleanly.

Kyoto Gov. Teiichi Aramaki makes a speech during the opening session of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1997. - AP Photo/Katsumi Kasahara File

Despite the agreement to cut emissions, it was only in 2005 that countries agreed to finally act on the Kyoto Protocol. But the United States and China - the two highest emitters both then and now - didn't join the agreement. The US signed it agreement, but its Congress did not ratify it.

In terms of sticking to the promises made, Kyoto wasn't successful. Emissions have increased dramatically since then. At the time, 1997 was the hottest year on record since pre-industrial times. 1998 broke that record, as have more than a dozen years since then.

Environmentalists and citizens hold banners calling for reduction of green house gas emissions in front of the Heian shrine in Kyoto, western Japan in 1997 - AP Photo/Katsumi Kasahara, File

This year is virtually certain to be the hottest the world has ever seen.

But Kyoto is still considered a landmark moment in the fight against climate change because it was first time so many countries recognised the problem and pledged to act on it.

Weakened EU vehicle emissions standards could mean €100 billion in health and environmental damages

Copenhagen's 2009 climate cash pledge

By the time the 2009 conference in Denmark came around, the world was capping off its warmest decade on record - another record which has since been broken.

The summit is widely regarded as a failure for the impasse between developed and developing countries on slashing emissions and whether poorer nations could use fossil fuels to grow their economies.

Still, it did see one major pledge: money for countries to transition to clean energy.

Rich countries promised to channel $100 billion (roughly €91 billion) a year to developing countries for green technologies by 2020. But they didn't reach $100 billion by the start of the 2020s, drawing criticism from developing states and environmentalists alike.

Danish military appear next to a sign reading "Copenhagen Seal the Deal" in the centre of Copenhagen in 2009. - AP Photo/Peter Dejong, File

In 2022, the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development said rich countries might have finally met and even exceeded this goal. But Oxfam, a group focused on anti-poverty efforts, said it's likely that 70 per cent of the funds were in the form of loans that actually increased the debt crisis in developing countries.

And as climate change worsens, experts say the funds promised are not enough.

Research published by climate economist Nicholas Stern found that developing countries likely need $2 trillion (€1.8 trillion) for climate action every year by 2030.

Climate funds for Indigenous Peoples 'evaporate' before reaching them, report reveals
The 2015 Paris Agreement's 1.5C limit

It wasn't until 2015 that a global pact to fight climate change was adopted by nearly 200 nations. It called on the world to collectively slash greenhouse gases.

But they decided it would be non-binding, so countries that didn't comply couldn't be sanctioned.

The Paris Agreement is widely considered the single biggest UN achievement in efforts to confront climate change. It was agreed upon eight years ago to a standing ovation at the plenary. Nations agreed to keep warming "well below" 2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times, and ideally no higher than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Celebration as the Paris Agreement is adopted at COP21 in Paris France in 2015. - AP Photo/Francois Mori, File

Paris' legacy continues, with the goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees still central to climate discussions. Scientists agree that the 1.5 threshold needs to be upheld because every tenth of a degree of warming brings even more disastrous consequences, in the form of extreme weather events, for an already hot planet.

The world hasn't exceeded the limit set in the Paris Agreement - it has warmed around 1.1 or 1.2 degrees Celsius since the early 1800s - but is currently well on its way there, unless drastic emissions cuts are made quickly.
Glasgow's 2021 pledge to 'phase down' coal

Six years after Paris, global warming had hit such a critical point that negotiators were looking to recommit to the goal of capping warming to the levels agreed in 2015.

Average temperatures were already 1.1 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial times.

The Glasgow summit was postponed until 2021 as the world was emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic. It included mass protests headlined by climate activist Greta Thunberg, who helped lead a global movement of youth activists to demand more action from leaders.

Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg speaks on the stage of a demonstration in Glasgow, Scotland during COP26 in 2021. - AP Photo/Jon Super

After last-minute disagreements over the language of the final document, countries agreed to "phase-down" coal, less strong than the original idea of a "phase-out." India and China, two heavily coal-reliant emerging economies, pushed to water the language down.

Coal gets free pass under electricity market reform

Alok Sharma, COP26 President, fought back tears as he accepted this last-minute motion to weaken the language of the Glasgow Climate Pact.

Britain's Alok Sharma President of the COP26 looks out at delegates during the closing plenary session at COP26 in 2021. - AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali

The burning of coal is responsible for more emissions than any other fossil fuel, approximately 40 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions. The burning of oil and gas are also major sources of emissions too.

So far, countries have failed to deliver on the Glasgow deal. Emissions from coal have slightly increased and major coal-using countries have yet to begin moving away from the dirtiest of fossil fuels.

India is a case in point. It is dependent on coal for more than 70 per cent of power generation and plans a major expansion of coal-based power generation capacity over the next 16 months.

From living in tents to missing school, here’s why climate change is a ‘child rights crisis’
The Sharm el-Sheikh loss and damage fund agreement

At last year's climate talks in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh, countries agreed for the first time to create a fund to help poorer nations recover from the impacts of climate change.

It came just a few months after devastating flooding in Pakistan that killed nearly 2,000 people and caused losses of over $3.2 trillion (€2.9 trillion). COP27 delegates decided to set up the loss and damage fund so that destroyed homes, flooded land and lost income from crops damaged by climate change would compensated.

After disagreements about what the fund should look like, it was formally created on the first day of this year's talks in Dubai.

A hand reads "pay" calling for reparations for loss and damage at COP27 in 2022. - AP Photo/Peter Dejong

More than $700 million (around €640 million) has already been pledged. But the pledges - and the amounts the countries choose to commit - are voluntary. A fact reflected in the comparatively small contribution pledged by the US - historically one of the world's biggest emitters.

Climate experts also say the pledges are just a fraction of the billions needed, as climate-driven weather extremes such as cyclones, rising sea levels, floods and droughts are increasing as temperatures rise.


'It's finished!': IEA boss says COP28 bid farewell to fossil fuels

Catherine HOURS
Fri, December 15, 2023 

IEA boss Fatih Birol says fossil fuels are 'finished' (JOEL SAGET)

While the UN's COP28 climate summit marked a pivot moment, when the world pledged to say "goodbye" to fossil fuels, International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol told AFP on Friday, it needs to now urgently boost finance for the energy transition in developing countries.

Birol welcomed the landmark agreement struck at the negotiations in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates, under which nearly 200 countries agreed that the world should be "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems".

But he said the next challenge would be to drive investment in emerging economies, particularly to reach for COP28's goal of tripling global renewables capacity and doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.

Q: How do you feel about this agreement?

It is a good outcome, a significant COP result.

The most important thing for me from this COP meeting is that the direction of travel for the global energy system now has been signed off by 200 countries around the world.

As of now everyone -- governments, energy industry, investors -- must make crystal clear what they are really doing in real life to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels in the next six years.

So everybody now has the right to ask the CEO of an oil company or the head of a government or a minister of energy how the decision you are taking now on this or that issue will help the world move away from fossil fuels, as it has been agreed in COP28.

What is missing big time, in my view, is how to help developing countries to finance their green energy transitions.

Q: How can the deal be translated into real life?

It gave an unmistakable signal to investors that if you continue to invest in fossil fuels you may well have serious business risks -- in addition to the climate risk this investment is causing.

And also, in my view, it gives a signal to the investors for clean energy that they may be more profitable than many people now believe they are.

As such, it is very important.

When we talk about climate change, it is not only people in London or in Paris or Sydney who are raising the alarm.

More and more people all around the world, from the cities of New Delhi to Jakarta to Nairobi, are seeing the clear links between use of fossil fuels, and (the) increasing and serious climate impacts (they) are experiencing in their daily lives.

This is very important.

This is in my view, will be a major problem for the fossil fuel industry and for the investors.

Q: You mention the lack of funding for developing countries. Do you see any movement on this issue?

It is a big problem. (At the time of the Paris Agreement in 2015), clean energy investment in the world was $1 trillio, and today it is close to $2 trillion.

But the problem is this increase -- almost $1 trillion increase -- comes from the advanced economies and China.

Green energy investment in the rest of the world is completely flat. No growth.

Just for their own interest, (advanced economies) would in my view need to support clean energy finance in developing countries, because for example, in Europe, even if tomorrow's (greenhouse gas) emissions go to zero, the impact of climate change in Europe would not change at all if the emissions from the other countries go in line with the current trend.

Emissions don't have a passport.

In my view this is the missing link in the COP28 outcome.

Financing the clean energy transition will be a top priority for our agency (at the next COP negotiations, COP29, in Azerbaijan in late 2024).

Q: Is the world on the right track on renewables?

We are not on the right path.

Our next job will be a translation job -- translating those targets to the real concrete energy policies around the world.

Q: Observers have pointed to potential loopholes in the COP28 agreement, like the nod to gas as a 'transition fuel'. Is this a concern?

I wouldn't say that tomorrow the use of gas will be zero.

It needs to decline, and to decline rapidly. But different parts of the world will have different profiles. Europe is different from Africa.

Two hundred countries have signed a document to say goodbye to fossil fuels.

The direction of travel is extremely clear. There is no way to change it now. Too late, it's finished!

cho/klm/gil


Thornwood student on U.N. Climate Change conference: ‘We’re all connected’

Alexandra Kukulka, Chicago Tribune
Fri, December 15, 2023 

Avery Smith, a senior at Thornwood High School, said his favorite moment at the 28th annual United Nations Climate Change, or COP28, conference hosted in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates was listening to a panel discussion with Indigenous people from Canada about how climate change affects them.

“It was a panel of four women, and the elder was talking about how the hunters and the trappers in their culture rely very heavily on nature,” Smith said. “With climate change, they didn’t know what to do. They didn’t have anything to pass down to the next generation because their knowledge was antiquated. It didn’t apply anymore because the climate changed that much.”

Smith, of South Holland, said he had the opportunity to interview the elder and they had a powerful conversation about the effects of climate change.

“That’s the crux of everything, but especially the climate conversation,” Smith said. “If you have a group of people who think that the problem only affects them or that the problem doesn’t affect them, then you’ll never fix the problem, because the truth is the problem affects everybody. If the problem affects one of us it affects all of us.”

Smith said he first became interested in learning about climate change three years ago when he joined Community and Economic Development Association of Cook County’s Green Generation, or G2, summer program. Through G2, Smith said he learned about home performance and urban sustainability. Now, he is the G2 Sustainability Youth Council president.

“It felt like an opportunity, and so I took advantage of it. It turned out being one of the better, most memorable experiences of my high school career,” Smith said. “Through that, I kind of became entrenched in the climate crisis.”

In June, Smith gave two speeches at GreenTown Climate & Equity conference at Triton College, organized by Seven Generations Ahead. His speeches caught the attention of representatives with It’s Our Future, Seven Generations Ahead’s youth environmental advocacy program, who ultimately invited him to be one of six area student COP28 delegates.

“He made a huge impression. He was an excellent speaker,” said It’s Our Future manager Rachel Rosner.

The summit, which ran through Dec. 12, brought together thousands of people, including politicians, business leaders, climate experts and environmental advocates from around the world. The global summits are convened to find ways to address the climate crisis, such as limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, helping vulnerable communities adapt and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Smith said the delegation’s trip from Dec. 1- 9 was his first time out of the country. The conference was divided into the green zone and the blue zone.

The green zone, which was open to the public, felt more like a museum where people could learn about climate change. The blue zone, which required tickets, was where policymakers held talks, panels and “where the real U.N. stuff happens,” Smith said.

For example, the first day Smith went to the blue zone was to listen to former Vice President Al Gore give a presentation on a new technology called Climate Trace that tracks and measures greenhouse gas emissions.

“They can now fairly accurately, or at least more accurately, tell which countries are polluting and from where and what those sources are. Now, the idea is, that the nations of the world have no choice but to be accountable,” Smith said.

Another moment he enjoyed was listening to former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton moderate a panel about the need for women in the climate change conversation.

“If women are included in the conversation, if women are not repressed from the conversation, if you open your mind enough to listen to what a woman has to say, the climate conversation can at least take a step forward in a new direction,” Smith said.

The delegates, Rosner said, enjoyed talking with people experiencing climate change in real time and returned energized.

Smith said his main takeaway is the interconnection of climate change.

“We’re all connected. We need to be kinder to one another. We need to help people where we can. It may not seem that way, but we help people when we live sustainable lives,” Smith said.

How the World’s First Deal to Ditch Fossil Fuels Was Forged at COP28

Jennifer A Dlouhy, Laura Millan and John Ainger
Fri, December 15, 2023 







(Bloomberg) -- It was an improbable scene in Dubai as a top oil executive basked in a standing ovation from hundreds of diplomats tasked with fighting climate change.Sultan Al Jaber, head of the United Arab Emirates’ state-owned oil company, had just presided over the two-week COP28 summit that led to the world’s first agreement to move away from fossil fuels. There were tears, hugs and claps on the back as exhausted delegates celebrated a milestone in the battle against global warming.

It was a remarkable turnaround from just two days earlier, when negotiations had become so fraught there were fears they might fall apart. That would have been a disaster for Al Jaber and his army of hired consultants, who had spent months crisscrossing the globe to build support for a deal. And it would signal that the Paris Agreement to stem greenhouse gas emissions was unraveling — catnip for climate-denying populists like Donald Trump.

With the planet baking in the hottest year on record, many nations were determined that this time the world would finally pledge to eradicate — or “phase out” — all fossil fuels. While they had agreed in Glasgow in 2021 to cut some coal, an alliance including the US, European Union and vulnerable island nations wanted this COP to tackle oil and gas as well.

The annual climate negotiations have become increasingly complex since the 2015 breakthrough in Paris. Nations now need to agree on concrete steps needed to keep global temperature rise within 1.5C, forcing delegates to grapple with thorny issues that will directly impact their economic prospects.

Read More: Is It Time to Change How We Talk About 1.5C?

The positions that countries take have become “more vague,” said Marina Silva, Brazil's environment minister. “There are allies good for one paragraph, but not for another paragraph.”

This account of how the Dubai agreement came together is based on interviews with a dozen negotiators from different countries, some of whom asked not to be named discussing private talks.

COP28 started promisingly with a flurry of announcements that included billions of dollars for green solutions and vulnerable communities. Nations agreed ahead of time on how to run a fund to compensate poor countries for climate damages, resolving an issue that could be a major stumbling block. Al Jaber got more than 50 major oil and gas companies to promise to stem methane emissions.

But then the wheels threatened to come off.

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said on the fifth day that his country would “absolutely not” agree to phase down fossil fuels. The head of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which includes the UAE, days later urged members to reject any language that called for reducing fossil fuel production. Because COP decisions are made by consensus, a single country could block a deal.

Meanwhile Al Jaber was facing a crisis of confidence. Just before COP28 kicked off, a story by the Centre for Climate Reporting alleged he planned to use his position to lobby for oil and gas deals. A video uncovered by The Guardian days later showed he had questioned if fossil fuels need to be phased out to keep global warming to 1.5C.

Al Jaber, who had hired dozens of public relations officers to manage the summit’s media coverage, was visibly angry when he was asked about the CCR report at his first press conference. He flatly denied any inappropriate conversations. When the second scandal broke, it took aides a full day to persuade him to clarify his comments.

The revelations ratcheted up the pressure on Al Jaber to deliver something on fossil fuels. “He was accountable for the result” and “this is a very important incentive,” said Teresa Ribera, Spain’s environmental transition minister. “He insisted that fossil fuels should be part of the agreement.”

On Monday, that goal looked further away than ever. With just two days to go before COP28 was due to end, Al Jaber’s team released a draft that proposed nations “could” employ a menu of options, including ramping up renewable energy and cutting fossil fuels. The language was so weak it angered countries who had been pushing for progress, while the Saudis and their allies wanted to avoid mentioning oil and gas altogether.

“Nobody was happy with it — one sector because of some reasons, and another sector because of opposite reasons,” said María Susana Muhamad, Colombia's environment minister. "That created pressure on both sides to start bridging."

Negotiators gathered for a closed-door meeting where, turn by turn, they detailed flaws with the proposal.

“What we have seen today is unacceptable,” said John Silk, head of the Marshall Islands’ delegation and chair of a bloc of climate-vulnerable island states. “We will not go silently to our watery graves.” A representative from Australia assured him the country would not “sign their death certificates.”

The draft was so universally unacceptable that it ended up bringing countries together, a senior US State Department official said. Whether or not that was Al Jaber’s intention, it empowered his team to push for a stronger agreement or risk a full-scale collapse.

Dozens of bilateral meetings between opposing factions took place on Tuesday, with the US, China and the European Union helping to barter concessions alongside the COP presidency.

“We worked day and night to listen to our allies in developing countries, working with shuttle diplomacy with countries like Brazil, the United States, South Africa — everyone,” said Jennifer Morgan, Germany's special representative for climate.

John Kerry, the US climate envoy, and his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, were central figures in bringing countries together after having reached consensus themselves at a meeting in California last month. The special relationship between the veteran diplomats, developed after years of sitting across from each other at the negotiating table, has been a key factor in global climate progress over the years.

It might be the last time the two form the power center of COP talks. Xie is set to retire and it’s unclear if Kerry, who turned 80 earlier this week, will remain in his role. Their numerous meetings in Dubai included birthday festivities, where Xie presented Kerry with a framed series of photos of them together and his grandson gave the US envoy a card.

Kerry recalled how emotions were running high on Tuesday. “You can’t ask us to commit economic suicide,” Kerry said a minister from a fossil fuel producing country told him. European negotiators had at least two difficult meetings with the Saudis. Al Jaber’s team met with a host of countries as techno music blared from a nearby Turkmen restaurant.

Negotiators worked into the night on Tuesday, fueled by chicken dinners with tiramisu, tweaking the language to try and please all parties. That included coal-dependent India and top oil and gas producers such as Iraq. Developing nations, especially in Africa and South America, wanted commitments to come with financial support and to make sure their economic circumstances were taken into consideration.

Earlier international meetings served as building blocks. Inspiration for three key words — to “transition away from” fossil fuels rather than “phase out” or “phase down” — came from a recent Pacific Island Forum communique. Language compelling countries to lay out ambitious and expansive climate pledges for 2035 was drawn from a joint statement released after Xie and Kerry met in November.

Adnan Amin, COP28 chief executive officer and one of Al Jaber’s top lieutenants, offered the first sign of hope around 8 p.m. on Tuesday. Delegates were on the cusp of a deal, he said, as he popped out of the UN climate body’s offices for a brief moment. But he quickly added "Inshallah” – or “God willing” in Arabic.

Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Saudi minister, emerged as an unlikely helper. He swept into the talks just after midnight. After his intervention earlier in the COP, many attendees saw the prince as climate enemy No. 1. Now, here he was, trying to get a text over the line. He convinced a group of developing countries, which includes heavyweights India and China, that this was an agreement the skeptics could accept.

The result was a document gaveled through on Wednesday that wasn’t what anyone wanted, but one everyone could live with for now.

The oil industry had managed to secure two main priorities, with the deal leaving room for some natural gas and highlighting carbon capture as a climate solution. The expensive technology would, in theory, allow for continued burning of fossil fuels without emissions, though some experts warn it’s a long-shot distraction from cutting consumption.

Little progress was made on securing finance for developing countries and the Alliance of Small Island States warned that the pact was far from adequate to meet the climate crisis. “We have made an incremental advancement over business as usual when what we really needed is an exponential step-change in our actions and support,” said Anne Rasmussen, the bloc’s lead negotiator.

Still, the outcome is vindication for Al Jaber, who pitched his ties to the fossil fuel industry as an asset and staked his reputation on being able to bring oil-rich nations along. Pulling off the largest-ever COP summit, with more than 100,000 attendees, marks a diplomatic high point for the UAE. Experts have already pointed out many flaws that will have to be addressed at COP29 in Azerbaijan, but also acknowledged the hurdles Al Jaber had to be overcome.

“I don't think that anybody else could have been in the position of doing that,” said Muhamad, the Colombian minister. “In a very paradoxical way, having the COP here in the oil-producing heart of the world ended up producing the result that we accept the transition from fossil fuels.”

--With assistance from Lou Del Bello, Alfred Cang, Nayla Razzouk, Jess Shankleman, Ewa Krukowska and Akshat Rathi.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.



Experts at odds over result of UN climate talks in Dubai; 'Historic,' 'pipsqueak' or something else?

SETH BORENSTEIN
Updated Thu, December 14, 2023







COP28 Climate Summit
(AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili)



DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The climate negotiations that just finished in Dubai hit upon the essence of compromise, finding common language that nearly 200 countries accepted, at times grudgingly.

For the first time in nearly three decades of such talks, the final agreement mentioned fossil fuels — coal, oil and natural gas — as the cause of climate change and said the world needs to be “transitioning away” from them. But it did not use the words “phase out," sought by advocates and more than 100 countries who argued it would provide sharper direction for the world to move quickly toward renewable energies that don't produce the greenhouse gas emissions that heat the planet.

For an agreement so steeped in compromise, what experts thought of it, including what impact it could have in the years to come, was as polarizing as can be.

The Associated Press asked 23 different delegates, analysts, scientists and activists where they would rank COP28 among all climate conferences. More than half said COP28 was the most significant climate talks ever. Yet a smaller but still large chunk dismissed it as awful. Even some who deemed it the most significant also highlighted what they characterized as big problems.

Thirteen of the 23 said they’d rank what COP28 president Sultan al-Jaber calls the UAE Consensus in the top five of negotiations and deals. Several called it the most significant since the 2015 Paris talks, which set specific goals to limit temperature increases and was the nearly unanimous choice for the most meaningful climate meeting.

The two weeks of negotiations at COP28 also put into effect a new compensation fund for nations hit hard by the impacts of climate change, like cyclones, floods and drought. Called loss and damage, the fund drew nearly $800 million in pledges during the talks. Nations also agreed to triple the use of renewable fuel, double energy efficiency and adopted stronger language and commitments to help poorer nations adapt to worsening extreme weather from climate change.

Leaders, mostly non-scientists, said Dubai kept alive the world’s slim and fading hopes to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial temperatures, the goal adopted in Paris. The world has already warmed 1.2 degrees (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit). Many scientific calculations that look at policies and pledges project at least 2.5 to nearly 3 degrees of warming (4.3 to nearly 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit), which could lead to more extremes and make it harder for humans to adapt.

Negotiators, who spent late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning in special closed-door meetings with al-Jaber before the agreement was reached, were especially proud, using the word historic frequently in public pronouncements. When asked where COP28 fit in that history, they stayed on message.

“I think it ranks very high,” said Zambia Green Economy and Environment Minister Collins Nzovu, who headed his nation’s delegation. “Loss and damages is there. GGA (the adaptation agreement) is there. We talked about fossil fuels, as well. So I think we’re going somewhere."

German climate special envoy Jennifer Morgan, who has attended all these talks either as an analyst, environmental activist and now negotiator, said it “is very significant” and not just for the list of actions agreed to.

“It shows that multilateralism works in a world where we are having trouble cooperating in a number of different areas,” Morgan told the AP hours after the agreement was gaveled through.

Former U.S. special climate envoy Todd Stern, who helped craft the Paris deal, put the UAE agreement as number five in his list of significant climate meetings, with Paris first.

Stern’s colleague at the RMI think-tank, CEO Jon Creyts, put this year’s deal second only to Paris “precisely because the message is comprehensive, economywide. It also engaged the private sector and local communities at a scale that is unprecedented. The U.S. and China were once again united in leadership mode while voices of the most vulnerable were heard."

Power Shift Africa’s Mohamed Adow also thought it ranked second only to Paris: “This COP saw the loss and damage fund established, it finally named the cause of the climate crisis — fossil fuels — for the first time and it committed the world to transition away from them, with action required in this decade. That is a lot more than we get from most COPs.”

Johan Rockstrom, a scientist who heads the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, praised what happened, but like so many others who ranked it high, also saw problems.

“Finally, we have a plan the world can work with towards a phase-out of oil, coal and gas. It is not perfect, by far, and not entirely aligned with science, but it is something we can work with,” Rockstrom said in an email. “Will it deliver 1.5°C (even if implemented)? The answer is no.”

The problem is the agreement has too many loopholes that allow countries to continue producing and even expand use of fossil fuels, said Center for Biological Diversity’s Jean Su. She also cited a portion of the text that allows for “transitional” fuels — a term the industry often uses for natural gas that isn't as polluting as coal but still contributes to warming.

“Politically it broke a major barrier, but it also contained poison pills that could lead to the expansion of fossil fuels and climate injustice," she said.

Joanna Depledge, a climate negotiations historian at Cambridge University in England, said the idea that the weak language is “somehow seen as a triumph” shows the world is in trouble, Depledge said.

“The yawning chasm between science and policy, between intention and action, barely shifted in Dubai,” she added.

Scientists were among those who ranked the UAE deal low.

“In the context of these previous, truly significant COPs, Dubai is a pipsqueak,” said Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer, who is also a professor of international affairs.

The agreement language was “like promising your doctor that you will ‘transition away from doughnuts’ after being diagnosed with diabetes," said University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann. "The lack of an agreement to phase out fossil fuels was devastating.”

Mann, like former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, called for a dramatic reform of the COP process. For his part, Gore said it’s too early to judge this COP’s significance, but he’s unhappy with the slow progress.

“It’s been 31 years since Rio, and eight since the Paris Agreement,” Gore said. “Only now are we even summoning the political will to name the core problem, which has otherwise been blocked by fossil fuel companies and petrostates.”

Gore and others still have hope, though.

“I think 1.5 is achievable,” said Thibyan Ibrahim, who led negotiations on adaptation on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States. “You need to ensure that people are going to do the things that they have said they’ll do, that the pledges will be actually reached and that commitments will be followed through.”

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Sibi Arasu and Jamey Keaten contributed to this report.

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Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment

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Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears

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Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.



Historic climate deal does the ‘bare minimum’ as the world warms, burns and floods

Lucas Thompson and Denise Chow and Evan Bush
Thu, December 14, 2023 

If there was ever a year that called for bold global action on climate change, 2023 was it.

In what will likely go down as the warmest year on record — one rife with catastrophic floods, scorching heat waves, devastating wildfires and enduring drought — leaders from nearly 200 countries gathered to chart a path forward in the fight against climate change.

After more than two weeks of tense negotiations at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP28, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, representatives from 198 countries agreed Wednesday to “transition away” from fossil fuels.


It was a historic deal but one that once again fell short for many climate activists, who saw it as further evidence that efforts to address climate change are moving too slowly and are being compromised by fossil fuel interests.

Former Vice President Al Gore called the agreement an “important milestone” but added that acknowledging the role that the burning of fossil fuels has played in the climate crisis is “the bare minimum we need and is long overdue.”

“Whether this is a turning point that truly marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era depends on the actions that come next and the mobilization of finance required to achieve them,” Gore wrote Wednesday on the social media platform X.

Skepticism of what comes next is understandable. The COP agreement’s lack of a concrete plan to eliminate the use of fossil fuels adds to growing concern that the big-picture moves necessary to avoid drastic environmental consequences are coming up short. Sure, the rise of clean energy technology and broader social awareness of global warming has spurred some optimism, but many environmentalists stress that these developments could mean little without a drastic reduction in how much carbon dioxide is pumped into the atmosphere.

fossil fuel protest climate summit (Fadel Dawod / Getty Images)

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said Wednesday that the era of fossil fuels “must end,” adding that science indicates it will be impossible to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) without eliminating their use.

“Whether you like it or not, fossil fuel phase out is inevitable,” he wrote on X. “Let’s hope it doesn’t come too late.”

The COP28 climate summit was controversial from the start. The host country, the UAE, is an oil-rich nation, and the meeting’s president, Sultan al-Jaber, is chief executive of the UAE’s state oil company, ADNOC.

Early in the conference, Al-Jaber came under fire for claiming in an online event in late November that there was “no science” to support the need to phase out fossil fuels to limit global warming, as first reported by The Guardian.

The event came as faith that oil companies are committed to reducing fossil fuel emissions has dwindled. While major oil and gas companies previously signaled they would transition to clean energy and do their part to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, they have walked back many of those claims over the past year. Critics have accused the industry of “greenwashing,” all while companies have increased exploration and hundreds of new oil and gas projects have been approved around the world.

Throughout the meeting, which ran into overtime talks, critics questioned how much could be accomplished on fossil fuels when it was being held in Dubai and led by Al-Jaber. Those fears came to the forefront when it became clear that the final agreement would not commit to a fossil fuel phaseout.

While the phrases “transition away” and “phase out” sound similar, there are key distinctions between them. Phasing out means their use in energy systems will ultimately be eliminated, while “transition away” represents a compromise, implying their use will be cut but will still continue.

Nate Hultman, a former State Department official and the founder and director of the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland, said it was an open question going into the conference as to whether world leaders would seriously debate the future of fossil fuels.

“There was a risk this could have been an exercise in avoiding an issue,” he said.

But Hultman said the final agreement — which calls for countries to “transition away” from fossil fuels in an equitable way, to triple the amount of renewable energy installed by 2030, and to shore up leaks of the potent greenhouse gas methane — makes clear that world leaders did reckon with a future without fossil fuels.

“The outcome indicates, this issue not only was substantially discussed, but highlighted in the text. There are good, strong elements,” said Hultman, who attended his 21st COP this year. “It will be important having this kind of signal sent about transitioning away from fossil fuels.”

Still, the agreement is nonbinding and its critics — in particular, leaders from poor, developing countries and island nations that are disproportionately affected by climate change — said it does not go far enough to eliminate fossil fuels and keep the world below 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming.

Many climate scientists and activists have expressed frustration that calls to “phase out” fossil fuels were significantly watered down.

“The agreement emerging from COP28 rightly emphasizes nature as a solution, but the failure to acknowledge the need to phase out the use of fossil fuels is dispiriting,” Mustafa Santiago Ali, executive vice president of conservation and justice at the nonprofit National Wildlife Federation, said in a statement Wednesday.

Earlier in the week, as drafts of the agreement emerged, emotions ran even higher. Gore wrote Monday on X that “COP28 is now on the verge of complete failure.”

In the end, nations agreed for the first time in nearly 30 years of these U.N. summits that a shift away from fossil fuels was needed to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by or around 2050 and to avert the worst consequences of climate change.

Merely mentioning what has been the elephant in the room at previous COP meetings was hailed as a major milestone.

“The very fact that the phasing out of fossil fuels has become center stage in an international arena would have been hard to imagine five years ago and is a significant advance,” said Michael Lazarus, a senior scientist and director of the Stockholm Environment Institute U.S., which is based in Seattle. “It means there is a shelf life, a due date, on fossil fuels now. We’re at a point where we can envision transitioning away from fossil fuels.”

Lazarus said the consensus nature of the international process — every country participating in deliberations effectively has veto power — makes global progress a grind.

“People talk about how it’s just words and not action, but the discourse that comes out of these international meetings have a remarkable resonance and ability to change the conversation,” Lazarus said. “Unless we have a sense of global action to phase out fossil fuels, to reduce emissions across the board, countries will not have the same incentives to act in the ways they need to.”

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com


How the COP28 deal got done
Reuters Videos
Updated Thu, December 14, 2023



STORY: COP28 PRESIDENT SULTAN AL JABER: "We have now reached the end..."

For the first time in history, countries have expressed a desire to end the oil age.

The COP28 accord from the summit in Dubai calls for “transitioning” away from fossil fuels.

Key players, including conference president Sultan Al Jaber, say it's “historic.”

AL JABER: “I must say that you did it, you delivered."

U.S. CLIMATE ENVOY JOHN KERRY: “This is a sea-change moment…”

EUROPEAN COMMISSION PRESIDENT URSULA VON DER LEYEN: "I think this is a global turning point…”

Some remain dissatisfied with concessions allowing for the use of tech such as carbon capture to keep greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere.

But striking a deal was by no means a foregone conclusion.

Here’s a look at how the COP28 deal… got done.

AL JABER: “I promised I would roll up my sleeves…”

Before the conference, COP28 President Al Jaber was pilloried by environmental activists as untrustworthy.

He runs the United Arab Emirates’ state oil company.

But he didn't want to oversee a failed conference.

Before it started, his office pumped up climate initiatives…

Like an EU- and U.S.-led declaration by nations to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.

U.S. VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS: "The urgency of this moment is clear..."

And a U.S.-China cooperation agreement reached in November.

Sources say getting a deal took deft maneuvering by the conference host...

As well as backchannel diplomacy from the top envoys of the world’s biggest polluters, the U.S. and China.

Al Jaber intentionally stirred the pot, sources say.

His approach was to put out deliberately provocative drafts for a deal that forced negotiators to reveal the outer limits of their positions...

Then, find common ground.

On December 11, Al Jaber’s draft deal outlined a broad “menu” of options that countries could – not should – take to fight climate change.

Those options ranged from carbon capture to reducing fossil fuel use, or cutting subsidies.

Missing... Was any mention of a “phase out.”

That sparked outrage... including from small island nations:

SAMOAN ENVIRONMENT MINISTER, TOEOLESULUSULU CEDRIC SCHUSTER: “We will not sign our death certificates.” // "It is our very survival that is at stake.”

While scores of countries came to Dubai wanting language around “phasing out” fossil fuels entirely….

It was something oil group OPEC particularly opposed.

But the outrage expressed at the summit was the desired effect, according to one source, who said the move made clear where people stood.

The presidency then took meetings into the early morning hours over the next days...

And did not release an updated draft until December 13, a day after the summit’s scheduled end.

The term “phase out” remained a red line that some like China and Saudi Arabia would never accept.

So, U.S. envoy John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua found a workaround.

They already had a road map from their recent climate cooperation in November: use words that essentially mean the same thing as "phase out."

With China and the U.S. aligned, it was just a matter of getting OPEC on board.

One source said it was Kerry, China and the Saudis that played a constructive role at the eleventh hour.

A source familiar with the negotiations said the final flurry of diplomacy ensured the deal would pass.

AL JABER: "Allow me please to declare the meeting adjourned"

Was COP28 a Success or Flop? Depends Who You Ask

Aryn Baker / Dubai
Thu, December 14, 2023


This story was produced in partnership with the Pulitzer Center’s Ocean Reporting Network.

There is nothing quite like an “I’ll try” response to my requests for my family to help more around the house to set my blood on fire. While those two words acknowledge the problem—my husband knows a heater in an empty room drives our electricity costs higher, my daughter knows that laundry left to molder in the washing machine will smell, and they both have seen that plants left unwatered will die—the phrase is nonetheless wholly lacking in conviction and commitment. In our household, it has become shorthand for “not happening anytime soon, if at all.”

Fourteen days of tense negotiations over how the world should address the looming threat of climate change at the COP28 conference in Dubai concluded on Dec. 13 with a similar response. The 21-page “Global Stocktake” text lays out the pathway that nations must take to limit global warming to the previously-agreed-upon goal of no more than 2°C higher than pre-industrial levels—beyond which scientists say severe storms, floods, droughts, heat, and wildfires will increasingly surpass humanity’s ability to adapt. The document is noteworthy for finally acknowledging that countries need to “transition away” from fossil fuels. Nonetheless, it is riddled with loopholes and lacks clear goals and fixed timelines. Boiled down into three words, it says, essentially, “We will try.”

Read More: Why Colombia’s President is Determined to Ditch the Country’s Oil Wealth

For those most immediately threatened by climate change, such as island nations and low-lying coastal countries already suffering the effects of sea-level rise, the final deal was not good enough. "We have made an incremental advancement over business as usual when what we really needed is an exponential step change in our actions," said Samoan chief negotiator Anne Rasmussen, speaking on behalf of the 39-nation Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). Scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which informs the climate negotiations process, have long said that the only way to keep climate change in check is to rapidly reduce emissions from fossil fuels. Yet, Rasmussen said, the final text did not adequately reflect that advice. “We reference the science in this text … but then we refrain from an agreement to take the relevant action in order to act in line with what the science says we need to do.”

Still, the fact that fossil fuels got a mention at all is a triumph, says Ani Dasgupta, president and CEO of the World Resources Institute, a non-profit research organization focused on climate change. The draft text went through multiple iterations over the course of the negotiations, and one version, supported by oil and gas producing nations, dropped a reference to the root cause of climate change entirely. But pushback from the U.S., the E.U., and AOSIS saw fossil fuels put back in at the last minute, even though the final version lacked the concrete term “phaseout” that many nations, including Samoa, wanted to see. “Fossil fuels finally faced a reckoning at the U.N. climate negotiations after three decades of dodging the spotlight,” said Dasgupta, in a statement. “This historic outcome marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era.”

In a sign of incremental progress, the new agreement also calls for a tripling of renewable energy and a doubling of energy efficiency by 2030. But it failed to make any progress at all on coal, only repeating tired language dating back to COP26 in Glasgow, calling for an “acceleration of efforts towards a phasedown.” And in a turn of phrase that worries many climate scientists and activists, COP28’s final text also contains references to “transition” fuels that could be interpreted to mean natural gas, a potent source of planet-warming methane. There is also greater recognition of the need for adaptation measures to enable countries to adjust to climatic upheavals, but little on how such measures should be funded for poor and developing nations.

Like any good compromise, the final agreement contains elements guaranteed to both please, and piss off, competing factions. As such, the outcome will be seen as a win for the U.A.E., which hosted COP28, and this year’s conference president Sultan Al Jaber, who managed to bridge the gap between petro states and countries on the frontlines of climate change. But that doesn’t mean that the talks themselves can be deemed a success, especially when it comes to the final outcome.

Read More: What Happens When You Put a Fossil Fuel Exec in Charge of Solving Climate Change

The year 2023 has already been declared the hottest on record, with the earth’s average temperature briefly exceeding 2°C (3.6°F) above the pre-industrial average on Nov. 17. Thousands died this year due to extreme heat, floods, storms, and wildfires linked to climate change and nearly 2 billion people are currently impacted by drought. The Panama Canal is drying up, the oceans have never been hotter in recorded history, and glaciers in both the Arctic and Antarctic are melting at unprecedented rates.

The primary goal of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which held the first COP (Conference of Parties) meeting in Berlin in 1995, was to “stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses at levels that would prevent ‘dangerous’ human interference with the climate system.” Yet year after year, emissions have continued to rise, bringing the planet dangerously close to the tipping point. “A successful COP means that global carbon emissions will stop this year,” says oceanographer Enric Sala, who attended this year’s conference as an advocate for the oceans. “There has been significant progress. But unless we reduce emissions dramatically, phase off fossil fuels and replace them with renewables, while removing excess carbon from the atmosphere, then this COP has failed.”