Obsession with extreme weather has a deep underlying psychology

The Conversation
July 17, 2024 

Illustration of a tornado causing destruction [Shutterstock]

At first glance, the 2024 remake movie Twisters contains many of the ingredients of the 1996 original, which starred Helen Hunt and Bill Paxton: a catastrophic and rare weather event, the urgency to use new technology to understand it, and central characters battling personality clashes.

However, Twisters (on general release from July 17) does more than confirm Hollywood’s interest in money-making sequels. It suggests movie financiers are convinced that people are fascinated by extreme weather and the devastation it can cause. And they’re right.

To make the film contemporary, Twisters adds the dimension of a social media superstar storm chaser (Tyler Owens, played by Glen Powell). Storm chasers like Owens have long been cult figures in the public imagination, and have even been the focus of a popular US TV series called Storm Chasers.

The idea of a celebrity whose popularity comes from uploading weather content accurately reflects the interest (and financial value) in posting weather footage online. Now, during any significant event, it’s easy to find not just professional footage from news channels, storm chasers or weather-focused social media channels, but also thousands of videos from people experiencing that catastrophe.

Extreme weather videos are hugely popular. Videos of dramatic events on YouTube and TikTok frequently attract tens of millions of views. During both Hurricane Irma (2017) and Hurricane Ian (2022), some YouTube channels streaming beach webcam footage had over 100,000 live viewers. Content recorded in the lead up to events also appear to capture the public imagination: popular social media accounts have begun to document seemingly mundane activities like packing tornado preparation bags.

What compels us to watch these kinds of videos? What are the psychological drivers of online rubber-necking? And, in a world where many will experience more extreme events, are there any benefits in watching videos of disastrous events?

A deeper social psychology

Research shows that our fascination with extreme weather videos – particularly live ones – is complex. While inevitably, some people want to watch things crash and burn, evidence is beginning to suggest that our captivation is driven by a deeper underlying social psychology: people often watch these videos because they connect us to people, places and ideas.

Sometimes, this is about being able to visualise concepts we’ve heard about but never seen with our own eyes. In a recent study, I examined why people were watching live footage of hurricanes and storms on YouTube. I found people wanting to see things they’d repeatedly heard reference to, such as the eye of the storm or the exact moment a hurricane made landfall. In one discussion in the comments, people wanted the wind to stop because they were only there to see if they could witness an “eye”.

For these people, videos of extreme moments helped connect what they’ve been told with what they could see (even if only through a screen).

The trailer for Twisters.




Extreme weather footage can also generate spaces that become important information sources and networks. Livestreams of all kinds often generate communities that are more valued than the content itself.

My study of the 2022 UK storms as well as Hurricanes Ian and Irma found the comment spaces around these videos mattered, because they connected people with different proximities to the event. During Irma, people used comment sections to compare government advice they’d received about whether to evacuate. Some watchers also became information conduits by connecting people to news reports and government websites.

Perhaps counterintuitively, people sometimes watch live videos hoping nothing will happen. I’ve come across numerous people watching livestreams of developing hurricanes for more than 12 hours. For these people – often on the other side of the world from the event – watching, hoping and commenting are the only things they could do to support the situation.

The giving up of time is considered an act of solidarity – one person said they had taken a day off work to watch because their childhood town was affected. Adapting a phrase used by one of these watchers, I termed these people “committed viewers”.

But for some people, it’s not about weather at all. Other researchers have written about how the watching of livestreams can be driven by desire to be part of a culturally or historically significant moment. Tens of thousands of people watched Aberdeen airport’s live webcams after the death of Queen Elizabeth II, for example, to catch a glimpse of planes landing as other members of the royal family flew in.

Currently, little is known about the effects of watching extreme weather footage on human behaviour. My ongoing research is trying to understand how hazard-focused social media influencers shape their followers’ future preparations, such as having an emergency plan or kit. What is already clear is that representations of disasters in films create misunderstandings about hazards and their aftermaths.

In Twisters, storm chaser Owens embodies the idea that people place a value (entertainment, support or otherwise) in watching spectacular situations – and that social media has created new ways to document experiences and engage increasing numbers of people with them. The challenge for scientists is harnessing this fascination in a way that stimulates knowledge and behavioural change beyond the small window of the event itself.

Simon Dickinson, Lecturer in Human Geography , University of Plymouth

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Decline in bees, other pollinating insects leads to shrinking crops

By Rachel Mallinger, University of Florida

THE CONVERSATION

Many plants, from crops to carnations, cannot bear fruit or reproduce without bees, beetles, butterflies and other insects to pollinate them. Photo by Pixabay/Pexels

Many plants, from crops to carnations, cannot bear fruit or reproduce without bees, beetles, butterflies and other insects to pollinate them. But the population of insect pollinators is dropping in the United States, due in part to pesticides, climate change, invasive plants and diminished habitats. Rachel Mallinger, assistant professor of entomology at the University of Florida, explains why these insects are in decline and how homeowners can create yards and gardens that are good for pollinators.

The Conversation has collaborated with SciLine to bring you highlights from the discussion that have been edited for brevity and clarity.

What kind of insects pollinate?

Rachel Mallinger: A lot of different insects pollinate. Insects visit flowers for many purposes, often for food, to get nectar or to get pollen. Sometimes they'll visit flowers to mate or to lay eggs or as refuge. Bees are the primary pollinators for a lot of plants, but flies, wasps, beetles and butterflies also play an important role.

How ecologically critical are insect pollinators?

Mallinger: A small percentage of flowering plants are pollinated primarily by wind, but new research suggests that as much as 90% require animal pollinators. Although birds, bats and other mammals also pollinate, insects are the main pollinators for the vast majority of those plants.

Without insects and their pollination, these plants would not be able to reproduce, and we would see a dramatic decline in plant diversity and abundance. Without insect pollinators, these plants wouldn't produce the seeds and the fruit that feed many animals -- including people.

Have insect pollinator populations declined?

Mallinger: Recent studies have shown pretty dramatic declines in insects generally, and this has been shown even in conservation lands. So we think that in highly developed areas, insect declines are probably even more dramatic.

I study primarily native wild bees. Here in North America, we have between 4,000 and 5,000 species. For many species, we don't know if they're declining. Of the ones that we do have some information on, it's estimated that about half are declining and about a quarter are imperiled and potentially on the road to going extinct.

The insect pollinators that tend to be most at risk are ones that are specialists -- those that require really unique, specialized food or nesting resources. Also ones that already have a limited range. For example, maybe they are found only on islands or in a small area.

What about the economic importance of insect pollinators?

Mallinger: Crops pollinated by animals, primarily insects, make up about one-third of our agricultural production in terms of acreage. A study in the state of Georgia found over $360 million per year in crop pollination services provided by insects in that state alone.

What do insect pollinators need to be healthy?

Mallinger: Aside from pollen and nectar, some insect pollinators require additional food sources. For example, butterflies in the caterpillar stage need foliage from their host plants.

Other insect pollinators, like wasps and flies, are carnivores in the larval stage, so during that time they need to eat small arthropods -- like spiders and centipedes -- and insects.

Beyond that, they need nesting habitat. The majority of our insect pollinators nest below ground, and so they need ground that is relatively undisturbed, bare and accessible. Other pollinators nest in woody debris, stems and reeds. And some pollinators, like butterflies, just lay their eggs on host plants.

Additionally, pollinators need environments that are free from toxins. So they need environments that are not regularly sprayed with pesticides, including insecticides.

What stressors are leading to declines in insect pollinator populations?

Mallinger: I would say there are five main stressors.

Land use change is one. This can be the conversion of wild lands to agriculture or to development.

Climate change is another stressor. It changes the average temperature that these pollinators are experiencing and increases the chance of extreme temperatures and weather events. Hurricanes and flooding can be really detrimental and destroy the habitat for pollinators.

Third, pesticides and other chemicals in our environment that are toxic.

Invasive plants can be really detrimental for pollinators. They can take over an area and replace the native plants that pollinators depend on. That's four.

And finally, pathogens and parasites.

All five of these stressors can interact. For example, climate change may increase the likelihood of invasive plant species, pathogens and parasites thriving. Land use change can also increase the likelihood of invasive species.

What can homeowners do to help pollinators?

Mallinger: Planting a diversity of flowering plants for pollinators is one of the best things you can do. Aim to have at least three plants flowering at any given time, and look for a diversity of flower colors and shapes. Different pollinators have different preferences. You can have flowers that are yellow, blue, purple, pink, red and white.

In terms of floral shapes, plant some flowers that are flat and are accessible for pollinators with small mouthparts. And also plant some flowers with medium-length tubes, and some with long tubes.

Focus on native plants and try to seek out plants that might not just be the common types that you find in the big box stores. Go to native plant nurseries and seek out resources online.

Additionally, try to have nesting habitat in your garden. If the space allows, have some woody debris around for the pollinators that nest above ground. This can include things like logs, stems and reeds. Also manage your area to be as chemical-free as possible. This includes reducing pesticide use.

Keep in mind that many pollinators that nest below ground are not aggressive and are solitary. It's just one individual pollinator and her nest.

Watch the full interview to hear more.

SciLine is a free service based at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, a nonprofit that helps journalists include scientific evidence and experts in their news stories.

Rachel Mallinger is a professor of entomology at the University of Florida. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.

CDC confirms sixth Colorado bird flu case


Six poultry workers in Colorado have tested positive for the bird flu, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Friday. File Photo by Bill Greenblatt/UPI | License Photo


July 20 (UPI) -- A sixth person has contracted the bird flu in Colorado due to contact with infected birds, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced.

The afflicted party is a co-worker of five poultry workers who likely contracted the bird flu while working directly with infected birds, the CDC reported Friday.

The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment on Sunday reported the infected workers were killing or removing selected birds to control the potential spread of the bird flu.

The CDC said the affected workers have been offered medication that can fight the virus.

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Testing done on one of the affected workers shows the bird flu strain is closely related to one in Michigan.

The CDC said that's a "reassuring" sign that suggests the bird flu is not mutating or otherwise adapting due to the antiviral medication used to treat those who become infected.

The CDC has a team of veterinarians, epidemiologists, clinicians and an industrial hygienist helping investigate the Colorado bird flu outbreak.

A total of 10 human cases of the bird flu have been reported in the United States since April, according to the CDC.

The six Colorado poultry workers are the only ones so far identified as contracting the disease from birds

The other four cases are due to exposures that occurred on dairy farms.

An estimated 19.32 million birds belonging to 34 commercial flocks and 16 backyard flocks have been affected by the bird flu, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported.

More cattle also are being reported with the bird flu with 157 dairy cow herds located in 13 states testing positive for the bird flu.

The CDC says the bird flu's risk to the nation's population is low.

The Colorado Health Department says poultry products are safe for consumption when handled and cooked properly.

People can protect themselves against the bird flu virus by avoiding raw or unpasteurized milk and staying away from dead or sick animals, animal dung and animals' bedding.

Neo-Nazis take over Nashville streets for the second week in a row

Holly Mccall, Tennessee Lookout
July 16, 2024 

On Nashville’s Lower Broadway, a little girl was frightened by a group of Neo-Nazis. (Photo: John Partipilo)

For the second time in as many weeks, members of a neo-Nazi hate group massed in downtown Nashville, accosting passerby in Nashville’s tourist-heavy Lower Broadway entertainment district.

Members of the Goyim Defense League, some wearing masks and shirts that said “Pro-White,” carried flags emblazoned with swastikas and shouted anti-semitic epithets while attempting to hand out flyers. Nashville police arrested one member following a fight outside the Johnny Cash Museum on 3rd Ave., S.

On Monday, group members were spotted on a Nashville interstate overpass, gesturing at motorists after dropping a banner over the side.

This follows a July 7 march through the same part of Nashville by Patriot Front, a white nationalist hate group that shares a theory of “white replacement” — that immigrants and people of color will outnumber white Americans — with the Goyim Defense League. It marked the second time in 2024 Patriot Front staged a Nashville event, the first in February.

Nashville Mayor Freddie O’Connell addressed Sunday’s march in a post on X: “Right now, though, as we see people putting effort into demonstrating hateful ideology publicly—including in Nashville—we should all work both to recognize the incredible power of the First Amendment while rejecting the most hateful and painful of its possibilities.”

A June report by the Southern Poverty Law Center found that white nationalist groups, emboldened by right-wing politics ahead of the presidential election, grew by 50% in 2023.

Tennessee Lookout is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Tennessee Lookout maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Holly McCall for questions: info@tennesseelookout.com. Follow Tennessee Lookout on Facebook and X.

How studying trends in human lifespans can measure progress in addressing inequality

The Conversation
July 15, 2024 

Differences in human lifespan are a useful indicator of inequality. (Shutterstock)

People are living longer lives compared to previous generations but, over the last few decades, there has been a hidden shift — they are passing away at increasingly similar ages.

This is a trend captured by the Gini Index, also called the Gini Coefficient. Should everyone pass away at the same age, the Gini Index would be zero. This makes the Gini Index a measure of equality, and a Gini Index of one represents inequality.

The Gini Index was developed by Italian statistician Corrado Gini. It is used primarily to study people’s incomes, and to measure inequality.

The Gini Index, typically associated with wealth distribution, reflects the degree of inequality within a society. In the context of life expectancy, lifespan serves as the new wealth — the Gini Index quantifies the disparity between lifespans, wealth distribution and equality.

Integrating the Gini Index with the expected lifespan yields the Gini Mean Difference (GMD).

A global shift

Breakthroughs in modern medicine are pushing the boundaries of human longevity, with life expectancy climbing globally, at different rates. The universal lifespan Gini Index hovers around 0.10 — 0.30 across the world, reflecting a reduction in lifespan inequality.



A map showing life expectancy in countries globally in 2021.


(S. Dattani, L. Rodés-Guirao, H. Ritchie, E. Ortiz-Ospina & M. Roser), CC BY

But individuals are passing away closer to the average age of mortality. This intriguing trend is measured by the Gini Index, reflecting a noticeable global shift with regional nuances.

Some regions show a tighter cluster of deaths around the average age of death than some other regions. While any two regions may show similar expected average ages of death, it is the distribution of ages at death that is of note. One region may show a clustering of deaths around the expected age, while in another, people may pass away across a broader range of ages.

The GMD predicts the anticipated age gap between two random individuals departing this world at a given moment in time in a specific location, and is used to calculate the Gini Index.

Analyzing the data

To validate these findings, our research team used data from the Human Mortality Database, giving us the number of people dying at various ages during specific time frames. This allowed us to calculate the Gini Index and GMD for select countries with available data.

The data we analysed covers total deaths across age categories from 47 countries spanning various decades. Notable findings from six countries — Canada, the United States, the Netherlands, Japan, Poland and Italy — reveal a universal rise in expected lifespan but a significant decrease in the Gini Index over time, indicating clustering of ages at death around the expected age of death.

Japan and Italy showed the lowest Gini Index (0.09) and GMD (14 years) in the 2010s, while the U.S. showed the highest Gini Index (0.13) and GMD (20 years) during the same period. In the late 1800s, the Netherlands and Italy had GMDs higher than expected lifespan and Gini Indexes higher than 0.5, suggesting the expected difference between the ages in two random deaths was higher than the expected lifespan itself.

Based on this analysis, we have identified a reason for optimism: the Gini Index has shown a consistent decrease over time. This implies that on some level, we anticipate people living longer lives and avoiding premature deaths.

Moving forward, there are several scenarios. The Gini Index may continue its decline, resulting in reduced lifespan inequality. Alternatively, it could stabilize at its current levels, or even worsen, leading to a resurgence in lifespan inequality.

Peter Zizler, Professor, Mathematics, Mount Royal University and Shoba Ittyipe, Associate Professor, Mathematics & Computing, Mount Royal University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

SPACE

Events commemorate 55th anniversary of moon landing


Astronaut and Lunar Module pilot Buzz Aldrin is pictured during the Apollo 11 extravehicular activity on the moon on July 20, 1969.

 Photo courtesy NASA | License Photo

July 20 (UPI) -- Amid a full moon from San Diego to Houston to Florida to Washington, D.C., activities on Saturday will mark the 55th anniversary of the first lunar landing and men to walk on the moon.

NASA's two main visitor centers, the Johnson Space Center near Houston and the Kennedy Space Center on Merritt Island in Florida, have activities scheduled.

A gala also will take place Saturday night at San Diego Air and Space Museum with Buzz Aldrin, 94, the last surviving member of the three-man Apollo 11 crew, He'll be joined by astronaut Charlie Duke, who was the voice inside Mission Control for the July 20, 1969, moon landing.

Hours later Neil Armstrong stepped foot on the moon, then Aldrin followed him as Michael Collins flew in the Command Module circling the moon.

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Activities have been scheduled all week at the Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex, which is near the launch of the spacecraft on July 16, 1969. The spacecraft returned to Earth on July 24 in the Pacific Ocean.

"Don't miss this opportunity to learn about humanity's ongoing journey of space exploration," the complex's website says. " Whether you recall the moment Apollo 11 touched the lunar surface, or you could be the first astronaut to visit Mars, Moon Fest Weekend promises to be an unforgettable experience for all ages."

One Giant Leap short film runs on the top of the hour.

A replica of the Atlas V rocket sits on its side as part of the tour of the space center.

The space center also looks ahead to the next mission to the moon: Artemis. The complex includes the Space Shuttle Atlantis with family-friendly activities scheduled there this weekend.

At the Johnson Space Center in Texas, a special presentation will culminate in a reconstruction of the memorable moon landing.

A panel discussion will explain "what it was like to be in Mission Control for the iconic Apollo 11 Mission that landed the first humans on the moon," according to the center.

Tours are conducted at the Historic Mission Control from which NASA led Gemini and Apollo missions.

On Friday, the center inaugurated the Dorothy Vaughan Center in Honor of the Women of Apollo, honoring the significant contributions and breaking of racial barriers by the late mathematician and NASA's first Black manager.

The National Air and Space Center in Washington, D.C., includes tours. The charred Apollo 11 craft is housed there.

Not just space rocks: 6 things we’ve learned about Earth from meteorites and comets

The Conversation
July 16, 2024

Meteorites (Festa/SHutterstock.com)

Apart from the Sun, its planets and their moons, our Solar System has vast amounts of space rocks – fragments left over from the formation of the inner planets.

A large concentration of asteroids forms a vast ring around our Sun, orbiting it between Mars and Jupiter. Fittingly, it’s called the main asteroid belt. Comets are icy bodies of dust and rocks that originated even farther away – in the Kuiper Belt beyond Neptune and the Oort Cloud of debris surrounding the Solar System.

Extraterrestrial rocks come in many sizes. Generally speaking, asteroids are space rocks larger than one metre, while the smaller pieces (from two millimeters up to one meter in size) are known as meteoroids.

Regardless of where they come from, once these foreign rocks make it to Earth’s surface, we call them meteorites. But they are much more than just simple rocks from far, far away.

They have allowed us to estimate the age of our planet, and changed the course of evolution more than once. Here are six major ways meteorites and comets have contributed to Earth’s history or our knowledge of it.

1. The age of our planet

About 4.5 billion years ago, a Mars-sized planet collided with the proto-Earth, changing the composition of our planet and forming our Moon.

During its first tens of millions of years, Earth was predominantly molten. It was too hot to form solid minerals and rocks, so the exact age of our planet remains unknown. But we do know it’s between the age measured from meteorites and the age of the oldest rocks we have been able to find and date.

The oldest minerals that have been reliably dated on Earth are tiny zircon grains found in Western Australia. The oldest one is 4.4 billion years old. However, scientists have also dated specks of calcium and aluminum found in meteorites, which yielded an older age of 4.56 billion years – the age of our Solar System.

So, thanks in part to the oldest age provided by a meteorite, our best estimate is that Earth formed around 4.54 billion years ago.



A slab of the Allende meteorite, the best-studied meteorite in history. It has many calcium–aluminum-rich inclusions dated to be 4.567 billion years old – the oldest known solids to have formed in the Solar System. Shiny Things/Flickr, CC BY-NC


2. The building blocks of life

The most plausible theory for the beginning of life on Earth is based on simple organic compounds that formed in space and were brought to Earth by meteorites and other celestial bodies.

During the Late Heavy Bombardment, a period between 4.1 and 3.8 billion years ago when more impact events hammered our planet, Earth’s surface was partially solid.
Amino acids, hydrocarbons and other carbon-based molecules arrived at our planet in carbonaceous chondrites (primitive meteorites, remnants from the early Solar System) and comets.

Once the early Earth was enriched with these organic molecules, chemical evolution followed. Eventually, life emerged on our planet. The earliest evidence is potential microbial life from 3.8 billion years ago, not long after the Late Heavy Bombardment.

Regardless of how life started, all theories agree on the need for a primitive ocean – or pools of water – that allowed early life on Earth to develop.


Photomicrograph of an ordinary chondrite meteorite found in northwestern Africa containing small spherical particles of minerals called chondrules. Circled is a barred olivine chondrule. Francisco Testa/From the author's personal collection

3. How we got our oceans

Meteorites and comets also played a major role in the formation of Earth’s oceans and atmosphere. Large quantities of water were delivered to our planet during the Late Heavy Bombardment.

In addition, water was released from Earth’s interior through volcanic activity during the Hadean Eon, the first eon in our planet’s history.

Water vapor, along with other gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, ammonia, nitrogen and sulphur, formed the proto-atmosphere. Rain began to fall once the temperature dropped below the boiling point of water, forming our primordial ocean.

Yes – the water we drink today is at least partly of extraterrestrial origin.

4. Changing the course of evolution

The extinction of dinosaurs happened about 66 million years ago. It’s linked to the second-largest known meteorite impact on Earth, the deeply buried Chicxulub crater in Mexico.


In contrast, the Late Devonian extinction about 380 to 360 million years ago cannot be explained by a single impact. Several factors have been proposed as potential causes, including multiple impacts, climate change, depletion of oxygen (anoxia) in the oceans and volcanic activity.

Repeated times during Earth’s history, impact events have influenced the survival and evolution of life on our planet.


The subtle impression of the Chicxulub impact crater is still visible on the Yucatán peninsula in Mexico today. NASA/JPL

5. Sampling Earth’s deep mantle and core

Scientists use a combination of methods to understand Earth’s internal structure: crust, mantle, core and their subdivisions. Seismology is the most important of them, which studies the propagation of seismic waves generated by earthquakes or artificial sources through Earth’s interior.

We have access to rock samples from the crust and upper mantle, but we will never be able to sample the deep mantle or solid core. Even if we had the technology, it would be astronomically expensive, and going down to such depths involves extreme pressures and temperatures.

Since direct sampling is impossible, scientists rely on indirect methods.

Pallasites and metallic meteorites are rocks from differentiated asteroids – ones that also have a mantle and core. Such space rocks are the closest we will ever come to sampling the deepest portions of our own planet. They help us understand its composition.

Pallasites are rare, and contain a silicate mineral called olivine embedded in nickel-iron alloys. It’s thought pallasites form in the boundary between the core and mantle-like regions of differentiated asteroids.

Metallic or iron meteorites are mainly composed of the nickel-iron alloys kamacite and taenite. They are the core fragments of differentiated asteroids, giving us clues to our own planet’s core.



Slab of Aletai iron meteorite, found in Xinjiang, China in 1898. Francisco Testa/From the author's personal collection

6. Meteorite impacts gave us huge gold and nickel deposits

The Witwatersrand rocks in South Africa host the world’s largest known gold reserves. This would not be the case without the Vredefort impact crater – the largest known impact structure on Earth – formed about 2.02 billon years ago.

The impact saved these gold deposits from erosion by covering the entire area with ejected material, concealing the ore-bearing layers beneath. If an ore deposit erodes, the material disperses and it wouldn’t make for profitable extraction.

Witwatersrand is the largest gold-producing district in the world. Which means the ancient meteorite impact has made an indirect, lasting impact on our society through the availability of this precious metal.

But that’s not the only such event. The third-largest known impact crater on Earth is the Sudbury Basin in Canada, formed 1.85 billion years ago. It hosts giant nickel deposits because the impact disrupted Earth’s crust, partially melting it and allowing magma from the mantle to rise.

This led to the accumulation of nickel, copper, palladium, platinum and other metals, producing one of the richest mining districts on the planet.

The author would like to acknowledge helpful feedback on this article from Prof Noel C. White, University of Tasmania.

Francisco Jose Testa, Lecturer in Earth Sciences (Mineralogy, Petrology & Geochemistry), University of Tasmania

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Manifesting has a dark side

DO WHAT THOU WILT, SHALL BE THE WHOLE OF THE LAW

The Conversation
July 17, 2024 

Cast Of Thousands/Shutterstock

Have you tried manifesting? It’s hard to escape on social media – the idea that you can will what you desire into reality through the power of belief. This could be financial success, romantic love or sporting glory.

Singer Dua Lipa, who headlined Glastonbury festival in June 2024, has said that performing on Friday night at the festival was “on her dream board”. “If you’re manifesting out there, be specific – because it might happen!”

Manifesting gained popularity quickly during the pandemic. By 2021, the 3-6-9 manifestation method was famous. A TikTok viewed over a million times, for instance, explains this “no fail manifesting technique”. You write down what you want three times in the morning, six times in the afternoon and nine times before you go to bed and repeating until it comes true. Now, content creators are explaining countless methods to speak your dreams into reality



But the idea that if you wish for something hard enough it will happen isn’t new. It grew out of the self-help movement. Some early popular books that peddled this idea include Napoleon Hill’s Think and Grow Rich from as long ago as 1937, and Louise Hay’s You Can Heal Your Life from 1984.

No one’s 20s and 30s look the same. You might be saving for a mortgage or just struggling to pay rent. You could be swiping dating apps, or trying to understand childcare. No matter your current challenges, our Quarter Life series has articles to share in the group chat, or just to remind you that you’re not alone.

The trend really took off with Rhonda Byrne’s The Secret, a book published in 2006 which claims you can bring about whatever you desire through the power of manifestation. It has sold more than 35 million copies and boasts many celebrity fans. Drawing upon the “law of attraction”, Byrne proclaims: “Your whole life is a manifestation of the thoughts that go on in your head.”

Manifesting as an intellectual vice

But there is a dark side to manifesting. Popular trends such as the 3-6-9 manifestation method promote obsessive and compulsive behavioural patterns, and they also encourage flawed thinking habits and faulty reasoning.

Manifesting is a form of wishful thinking, and wishful thinking leads to false conclusions, often through the inaccurate weighing of evidence. The wishful thinker overinflates their optimism about the likelihood of a preferred outcome. In philosophical terms, this kind of thinking is called an “intellectual vice”: it blocks a rational person’s attainment of knowledge.

Manifesting urges people to dream big and imagine in detail everything they desire. This sets people’s expectations unnaturally high, setting them up for failure and disappointment. It’s arguably a form of toxic positivity.

If you believe your own thoughts have the power to create reality, you may end up downplaying or ignoring practical actions and the efforts of others. You might manifest by saying: “I attract positive things to me”. But in doing so, you may not notice or credit the role of luck, chance, privilege and circumstance in explaining why some things happen and others do not.

Logical errors

Manifesting leads to logical errors. Someone who practices manifesting – and who finds that something they manifested comes true – is likely to attribute these desired outcomes to their prior hoping or wishing. But this does not mean hoping was the cause of the outcome. Just because one came before the other does not mean it was the cause: correlation does not imply causation.



Manifesting journal. Mallika Jain/Dupe

If you believe the power of wishing for something results in what you want coming true, you will disproportionately attribute your mental activity with causal efficacy over other causes.

For instance, if you study hard for an exam and achieve a good grade, you might end up attributing this outcome to the daily mantra or repeated affirmations you said leading up to the test, rather than crediting the effort you put into studying. For your next test, you might keep on manifesting, but study less.

And when a hoped-for outcome does not occur, you might find yourself accounting for it in positive or fatalistic terms: the universe has something better planned. The negative outcome becomes additional evidence that you should still think positively, and so you won’t change your approach.

While it may seem initially appealing, manifesting may also encourage victim blaming: that if someone had thought more positively, an outcome would have been different. It also fails to encourage people to make backup plans, leaving them vulnerable to luck and circumstance.

Manifesting is very self-involved. The wants of the manifester are central to their focus and the use of their mental energy and time.

If you rely solely on mental power to achieve your desires, you will not succeed. Try to consider the various factors that support and resist your goals. Finally, remember that sometimes the thoughts we think are imaginative, fictive, fanciful or fantastic. It is enriching and positive that in many cases, our thoughts do not come true.

Laura D'Olimpio, Associate Professor of Philosophy of Education, University of Birmingham


This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

HOW MANY THELEMITES DOES IT TAKE TO CHANGE A LIGHTBULB

NONE THELEMITES ARE NOT AFRAID OF THE DARK

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Manifesting, intention & making the magickal link - star + splendor

Sep 9, 2019 ... Crowley, Aleister. Magick in Theory and Practice. Castle Books ... aleister crowleychangeintentionmagickmanifestationshadow work. By Ami.

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Manifestation 101 — Or How You're Performing Magick Everyday ...

Jul 2, 2018 ... First things first, let me clarify that I'm using the word Magick as defined by Aleister Crowley (I don't neccasarily agree with or endorse ...

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What is Magic? Aleister Crowley Explains - Faena

Crowley recognized that the invocation of entities through magick was an inherent part of our psyche. In his Introduction to Lemgeton Clavicula Salomonis he ...

'Well-preserved' dinosaur fossil revealed by Brazilian flood

Agence France-Presse
July 19, 2024 

Heavy rains that caused historic flooding in southern Brazil earlier this year revealed a dinosaur fossil about 230 million years old, scientists said 

© Handout / Federal University of Santa Maria/AFP

Rio de Janeiro (AFP) – Torrential rains causing historic flooding in southern Brazil have revealed a "very well-preserved" dinosaur fossil dating back some 200 million years, according to the research team who discovered it.

The fossil was first identified in May near the city of Sao Joao do Polesine, some 280 kilometres (170 miles) west of Porto Alegre, in a part of the Brazilian pampas dubbed the country's 'El Dorado' of palaeontology.

A team of palaeontologists from the Federal University of Santa Maria spent four days excavating the fossil to remove the block of rock containing a "near complete" dinosaur fossil to take back to their research centre for study.

Initial findings have determined the fossil was a specimen of the Herrerasauridae family, which were bipedal carnivores with long tails found in the area of modern-day Brazil and Argentina.

The fossil dates to the Triassic period, between 250 to 200 million years ago.

Rodrigo Temp Muller, who's leading the research effort, told AFP that the fossil is possibly the second most complete fossil of a Herrerasauridae specimen to date.

The most complete was found in the same part of Brazil in 2014, leading to the identification of a new species with hooked claws, dubbed gnathovorax cabreirai.

The fossil will undergo several rounds of analysis before researchers can determine whether the specimen is a member of the same species.

"We have to be very careful with this work, it's very meticulous, almost surgical," Muller said, adding the process could take "several months."

"Every little part that we might damage will be a bit of information that we might not be able to recover."

Once the analysis is done, Muller's team will publish the results in a scientific journal.

Erosion acceleration


The heavy rains that affected the pampas in May killed more than 180 people in Brazil and caused major damage to infrastructure.

Photo released by the Federal University of Santa Maria (UFSM) on July 18, 2024, showing the site where a dinosaur fossil was discovered in Sao Joao do Polesine, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil © Handout / Federal University of Santa Maria/AFP

The floods revealed the fossil much earlier by "accelerating erosion," a silver lining to researchers, who would not have discovered it until much later, according to Muller.


The downpour is not without its drawbacks, however, as heavy rainfall "also destroys a lot of the material" from the fossils, especially small fragments.

Palaeontologists maintain a close watch on the fossil deposits as a result, especially any fragments that may be exposed, and focus their efforts during excavations to recover these fossils in the best possible condition.

Operation Valkyrie: 80th anniversary of plot to kill Hitler

Christoph Hasselbach

July 20, 2024

No other act of resistance against Adolf Hitler had such a long-term impact as the assassination attempt by Claus Schenk Graf von Stauffenberg. Nevertheless, his plans remain controversial to this day.

Stauffenberg (left) had direct contact with Hitler (center)Image: picture-alliance/akg-

Eighty years ago, on July 20, 1944, at 12:42, a bomb went off in the conference room of the Wolf's Lair military headquarters in East Prussia, the easternmost province of the German Reich until the end of World War II. It was supposed to kill Adolf Hitler, and had been planted by German army officer Claus Schenk Graf von Stauffenberg. The former ardent National Socialist now no longer saw any other option apart from murdering the dictator. "There is nothing left but to kill him," he had told his closest confidants a few days earlier.

Stauffenberg was not only the assassin, but also the most important organizer of a large-scale coup attempt by people from conservative circles, which included high-ranking military, diplomatic and administrative officials.

Claus Graf Schenk von Stauffenberg (1907-1944)Image: picture-alliance/akg-images

Shortly before the time bomb exploded on July 20, 1944, the officer had left the barracks. He flew in a military aircraft toward Berlin, believing the "Führer" was dead. In the German capital, "Operation Valkyrie" was underway.

Originally devised as a Wehrmacht plan to suppress a possible uprising, the conspirators — who held key positions throughout the Nazi state apparatus — wanted to repurpose "Valkyrie" for their own coup.

Doomed to fail

But Hitler suffered only minor injuries. The heavy oak table and the fact the barracks' windows were opened wide due to the hot weather had dampened the force of the explosion.

Despite this, the chance for a putsch would not yet have been completely lost — if everyone involved had followed through with Operation Valkyrie unswervingly. But there were delays, breakdowns and insufficient planning. In addition, facing the enormous pressure of possibly being discovered, some of those involved remained passive or even changed sides.

By the evening, the coup attempt had failed. Hitler went on the radio to broadcast to the people and spoke of the "providence" which saved him. Stauffenberg and several co-conspirators were arrested and executed by firing squad that night. Others were only discovered later. In total, about 200 resistance fighters were killed.

Historian Wolfgang Benz believes the main reason for the failure was because "none of the famous military leaders" from that time, such as General Erwin Rommel, took part. "At least one of them needed to have been at the helm, so that then the people would say: 'Aha, Rommel also sees it that way, that Hitler is a criminal,'" he said.

Known and unknown heroes: People who resisted Hitler

They were few, but they existed: People who risked their lives to fight the Nazis. The German Resistance Memorial Center in Berlin pays tribute to them

The assassination attempt of July 20, 1944

Seventy-five years ago, a bomb exploded in the Führer's Wolf's Lair headquarters, which was supposed to kill Adolf Hitler. The assassination attempt failed; Hitler survived. The resistance fighters involved were executed in the days following the attempted coup.

Man behind the July 20 plot

Claus Graf Schenk von Stauffenberg was instrumentally involved in the bomb plot of July 20, 1944. As early as 1942, the officer realized that the Second World War could no longer be won. In order to save Germany from imminent destruction, Stauffenberg and other Wehrmacht officers decided to overthrow the Hitler regime.

Kreisau Circle

Fundamental political reform in Germany was the goal of the Kreisau Circle. Helmuth James Graf von Moltke and Peter Graf Yorck von Wartenburg (pictured) were the driving forces behind the movement. Some members of the Circle joined the July 20 plot in 1944 and were tried and sentenced to death after the assassination attempt failed.Image: picture-alliance/akg-images

Hans and Sophie Scholl

Starting from 1942 a group of Munich students, led by siblings Hans and Sophie Scholl, tried to resist the National Socialists. The group, which called itself the White Rose, distributed thousands of leaflets denouncing the crimes of the Nazi regime. In February 1943 the Gestapo found the siblings and sentenced them to death.

Attempted Hitler assassination by Georg Elser

In 1939, carpenter Georg Elser fastened explosive devices behind Hitler's lectern in the Munich Bürgerbräu brewery. The bomb detonated as planned. However, since Hitler's speech was shorter than expected, he had already left the hall before the explosion. Seven people died and 60 more were injured. Elser was arrested on the same day and taken to Dachau concentration camp, where he died in 1945.

Weidt's Workshop for the Blind

During the Second World War, Berlin manufacturer Otto Weidt employed mainly blind and deaf Jews. His broom and brush bindery was considered an "important defense business" and could therefore not be closed down by the Nazis. Weidt managed to provide for his Jewish employees throughout the war and protect them from deportation.

Resistance by artists and intellectuals

Numerous artists and intellectuals already turned against the regime when Hitler came to power in 1933. Many who did not want to adapt or openly oppose the system fled into exile. Others, such as the Berlin cabaret group Katakombe, openly criticized the regime. In 1935 the theater was closed by the Gestapo and its founder Werner Finck was imprisoned in the Esterwegen concentration camp.

Die Swing Youth

The Swing Jugend or Swing Youth, regarded the American-English way of life, represented by swing music and dance, as a clear opposition to the Nazi regime and the Hitler Youth. In August 1941 there was a wave of arrests, especially in Hamburg, of Swing Youths, many of whom were taken into custody or deported to special youth concentration camps.

Red Orchestra resistance group

The Gestapo used direction finders to track down illegal transmitters used by resistance groups. In the summer of 1942, more than 120 members of the Rote Kapelle were arrested. This group, centered around Harro Schulze-Boysen and Arvid Harnack, wanted to help Jews document the crimes of the Nazi regime and distribute leaflets. More than 50 members were sentenced to death and executed.

German Resistance Memorial Center

On July 19, 1953, the ceremonial unveiling of the Memorial to the German Resistance took place in Berlin in the inner courtyard of the Bendlerblock building, the place where Count Stauffenberg was executed after the failed Hitler assassination. In addition, however, the memorial also commemorates all the other courageous men and women who stood up against the Hitler regime.

10 images

An enduring symbol

Despite its failure, the resistance to Hitler on July 20, 1944, became a strong symbol. A few days before, Stauffenberg's co-conspirator Henning von Tresckow had concluded that success was no longer what mattered: The important thing was "that the German resistance movement had dared to risk its life in front of the world and in front of history."

There were other resistance operations, such as the narrowly failed attempt by carpenter Georg Elser to kill Hitler using a homemade bomb in a Munich beer hall in 1939, or the leaflet campaign by a group of young friends known as the White Rose. They were later unjustly overshadowed by "the late, not to say belated resistance of the conservative elites," as Wolfgang Benz judged the July 20, 1944 plot.
'The Holocaust did not interest them'

The remembrance of Operation Valkyrie and the assassination attempt has shifted over time. For a long time after the war ended, its initiators were still regarded as traitors. Stauffenberg's wife, for example, was initially refused the pension received by widows. Later, the conspirators were officially designated as heroes: Streets, schools and barracks were named after them, and public buildings were decorated with flags every July 20. Swearing-in ceremonies for Bundeswehr armed forces recruits were held on the anniversary: The military of democratic Germany invoked the resistance fighters surrounding the former Wehrmacht officer Stauffenberg.

July 20 plotter Stauffenberg as role model  02:43


But there was always criticism of those involved in the plot. Stauffenberg biographer Thomas Karlauf pointed out that the group first acted in the European summer of 1944, shortly after the Allies landed in Normandy. Following Germany's rapid military victories over Poland and France in 1940, Stauffenberg had enthused: "What a change in such a brief time!" He and the other men who participated in the military resistance took a "very, very long path to reformation," said Benz, adding: "The Holocaust did not interest them at all." Faced with a looming military defeat, they wanted to try to "save what can be saved" for Germany by initiating a coup.

Stauffenberg, not a democrat?

Fellow historian Johannes Hürter is of the view that Stauffenberg was no democrat: He had an authoritarian form of government in mind for Germany if the assassination had been successful.

Wolfgang Benz makes a slightly less harsh judgment: "Under any circumstances, Germany would have become a constitutional state again. But democracy as we know it, as it was established in the Basic Law constitution, was not the vision of the July 20 conspirators."

Many Germans today think first of July 20, 1944, when it comes to the resistance against National Socialism. Claus Schenk Graf von Stauffenberg, as a result, has become its face. But there were many other heroes who rebelled against the terror of the Nazi regime: Jews, communists, people in the church, artists, partisans. There were certainly also people who resisted in silence and whose deeds, unlike those of the July 20 attackers, have since been forgotten.

This article was first published in German on 20.07.2019. It was updated and published in English on 19.07.2024.

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Why Chinese technology set off alarm bells in Germany

Dirk Kaufmann

July 17, 2024

Even as the German government moves to bar components made by China's Huawei and ZTE from core parts of the country's 5G networks, some German companies are looking to work with Chinese firms in other critical areas.

Germany's communications networks are critical, with the government wary of allowing China to provide the technology for it

Image: Boris Roesller/picture alliance/dpa

On July 11, the German Interior Ministry (BMI) announced that by the end of 2026 components made by Chinese technology companies Huawei and ZTE "must no longer be used" in building up the country's next-generation 5G mobile networks.

Already existing components, the BMI decided, "must be replaced by the end of 2029."

The German government considers 5G networks "critical infrastructure" because they are crucial for the energy sector, transportation, health care and financial services.

The ban comes as Chinese technology firms are increasingly viewed with suspicions for their allegedly too close ties to the government in Beijing. Especially Beijing's drive to make companies like Huawei and ZTE world leaders in high-tech sectors makes Western governments wary of giving them too much influence on their national infrastructures.

Germany must no longer 'sit on the fence' over Huawei  02:53

Wind power market becomes new battlefield

Meanwhile, another German-Chinese collaboration has caused a stir in this respect. Luxcara — an independent asset manager based in Hamburg, Germany, — announced it had contracted Chinese company Ming Yang to build the turbines for a wind project off the German coast.

"The decision for Ming Yang was based on an extensive due diligence exercise, covering the supply chain, ESG [environmental, social, and governance] compliance aligned with the EU taxonomy and cyber security supported by independent experts from renowned international advisors," the company said in a statement on July 2.

Energy supply is also considered critical infrastructure in Germany, as the country strives to generate 80% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2035.

Wind power is expected to be a significant part of the future electricity mix. Official German data show that in the first three months of this year, 38.5% of all electricity produced in Germany came from wind power. No other renewable energy source has grown as significantly as wind power.

Lars Haugwitz, senior consultant at Luxcara, says Luxcara "chose the most powerful turbines" for their Waterkant wind park project.

"Ming Yang was the only company that could meet the delivery time by 2028 with an 18.5-megawatt unit," he told DW, adding that the decision was based on a thorough review of all the offers they'd received during the international tender.

China has closed the technology gap with the West in wind turbine technology

Image: Huang Hai/Photoshot/picture alliance

With a little help from Beijing

To date, Danish company Vestas and German-Spanish manufacturer Siemens Gamesa have dominated offshore wind power in Europe. However, other German wind farm operators are now also considering Chinese companies as suppliers.

According to German business daily Handelsblatt, energy giant RWE is among them, with the newspaper citing limited supply of wind turbines in Europe and high demand as reasons.

In a statement, the Germany-based utility said it has no Chinese suppliers in its wind portfolio so far and was planning to continue working with established European suppliers. However, a company spokesperson told DW that the offshore industry needs to understand "what products Asian suppliers can offer and whether they meet the requirements in terms of technology, quality, safety and cost-effectiveness."

There are several reasons why companies from Asia are often leading in new technologies, says Michael Tenten, managing director of Pure ISM, a company focused on data security in the renewable energy sector. They were "mostly economic," he told DW, with "faster availability of the equipment" being the main one.

However, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) in Germany found that in 2022, more than 99% of China's listed companies also received direct state subsidies and enjoyed easier access to critical raw materials, forced technology transfer in joint ventures and assistance in public procurement processes.

China's carmaker BYD, for example, has become the world's leading electric-vehicle manufacturer after receiving particularly high subsidies, IfW research director Dirk Dohse recently told Handelsblatt. It also benefited from subsidies for battery production and subsidized components.

"Although European industries often can't compete with Chinese prices, without China's subsidized technology, products needed for Germany's green transformation would be more expensive and scarcer," Dohse said.

Massive state support has contributed to BYD's meteoric rise as an electric vehicle maker

Image: AFP

Data leaks a security risk?

Pure ISM's Michael Tenten sees another reason for mistrust toward Chinese suppliers: data security.

"Manufacturers usually operate their own control centers to monitor the wind farms they build. As long as these control centers aren't located in Germany, there is always a risk of unwanted influence on operations from abroad," he said, adding that he isn't aware of any Chinese manufacturer currently planning or intending to set up its own control center in Germany.

For Luxcara's Lars Haugwitz, such a risk is rather theoretical as there will be "no direct data link" between the German offshore wind park and the Chinese turbine manufacturer.

"Control, operation, and maintenance of the turbines will be entirely conducted in Germany," he said.

This article was originally written in German.