Balochistan farmers sow ‘seeds of hope’ as they take a bold leap into organic farming


As traditional methods falter, Balochistan’s embrace of organic farming marks a pivotal shift towards sustainable agriculture in a land besieged by resource scarcity.

S. Raza Hassan 

Published August 6, 2024
DAWN

Naeem Ahmed, a young farmer from Jaffarabad, Balochistan, never imagined the tables would turn so dramatically. Once mocked by his neighbour for using organic fertiliser, Ahmed now finds himself sought after for his farming methods.

At just 21 years of age, he’s part of an inspiring movement of nearly 300 farmers embracing organic farming after the devastating 2022 floods hit the mineral-rich Balochistan province.

Official figures paint a stark picture: out of Balochistan’s 34.7 million hectares, a mere 2.06 million (5.9 per cent) are cultivated, with 54pc lying fallow due to chronic water scarcity.

In a province where 90pc of the population depends on agriculture and livestock, the lack of industrial activity compounds the struggle. Despite these odds, Ahmed has completed three successful rounds of crop cultivation, which have gradually lifted him out of debt, helping him achieve financial stability.

It was during his third round of rice cultivation that Ahmed’s neighbour, who had always ridiculed the former for his use of organic fertiliser, finally took notice.

“He was laughing at me, saying I should use the chemical one because it’s tried and tested,” Ahmed recalled. Undeterred, Ahmed’s reply was simple: “Let me do my job, and you do yours.”

Turning the tide

As the seasons changed, so did the fortunes of Ahmed’s farm. In the sun-baked fields of Jaffarabad, he watched his crops flourish under the care of organic fertilisers — a method criticised by many. The lush, healthy crops grown with organic methods stood in stark contrast to his neighbour’s chemically treated fields. The same neighbour, once doubtful, began to see the tangible benefits of Ahmed’s approach.

Ahmed’s neighbour was burdened by a crushing debt of Rs150,000, largely incurred from purchasing diammonium phosphate (DAP) and urea fertilisers from Sindh. He bought a bag of DAP for Rs18,000 and urea for Rs8,000. Ahmed, on the other hand, spent only Rs12,000 on organic fertiliser.

Gohram Baloch of the Institute of Development Studies and Practice delivers a training session for farmers in Quetta. — All photos by author


While Ahmed made a profit of Rs95,000 from his crops, his neighbour was drowning in expenses due to the exorbitant cost of chemical fertilisers. The difference in the revenue was startling, but it was more than just economics that changed the latter’s mind.

The tipping point came when the neighbour, already exasperated by relentless costs, was faced with the looming threat of counterfeit chemical fertilisers that could ruin his six months of hard work. Ready to leave behind the uncertainty of chemicals, he wished to practice organic farming for its promise of sustainability.

The organic boom

Ahmed’s journey into organic farming began with the Institute of Development Studies and Practice (IDSP) whose representatives distributed aid in Jaffarabad district following the 2022 floods.

The initiative was the brainchild of Gohram Baloch, an IDSP graduate, inspired and encouraged by Dr Quratulain Bakhteari, the founder director of IDSP. Their vision was simple yet profound — use local seeds, organic fertilisers, and create community seed banks for future use.

Initially, farmers from five districts — Jaffarabad, Sibi, Naseerabad, Kachhi (formerly Bolan), and Sohbatpur — were selected to participate. Each owned no more than five acres of land and agreed to abide by the IDSP policy to use local seeds and not chemical fertilisers. The support of Rs38,000 per farmer facilitated the acquisition of seeds and tractor use, with the expectation that they would return the seeds after the harvest.

In February 2023, the Rotary Club Karachi, impressed by the progress, pledged support for 200 farmers by providing seeds for sunflowers and millet.

A phase-wise progression shows that the initiative which began with 25 farmers, has now blossomed to include around 300.

IDSP initially purchased organic fertilisers from the market, but to ensure sustainability, they established two production plants in Sohbatpur and Sibi. These plants produce manure, micronutrient, and bio-stimulant fertilisers. As a result, 1,398 acres of land across the five districts were cultivated, yielding 13,356 bags of crops, each weighing 100 kilograms, Gohram Baloch informed.

The soils are crying out for revival

Pakistan has the potential to produce organic fertilisers capable of cultivating nutritious crops. The combination of de-oiled mustard, cotton seeds (khali), neem seeds (nimboli), pongamia pinnata seeds (sukh chain), Jatropha curcas (ratan jot) seeds and cow dung, produces a nutrients-rich bio-fertiliser through the vermi-compost method, said Dr Mehmood Ali, Associate Professor at Department of Environmental Engineering, NED University of Engineering and Technology.

Organic farming, Dr Ali emphasised, enhances crop productivity by improving soil fertility, reducing impact of pollution, lowering carbon footprints, conserving water by increasing soil water-holding capacity, and supporting biodiversity.

Pakistan’s soils, burdened with deficiencies and low nutrient levels, are crying out for revival. “The characteristics of soils in Pakistan showed low to medium quality,” said Dr Ali, underscoring a pressing need for change.

With organic matter at only 1.25pc, a pH of 8.1, and critical nutrients in short supply (nitrogen at 0.078pc, phosphorus at 0.108pc, and potassium at 0.28pc), the path to improvement is clear — embrace an organic bio-fertiliser composition that includes up to 25.2pc organic matter, a pH of 7.56, and enhanced nutrient levels (nitrogen at 1.99pc, phosphorus at 3.02pc, and potassium at 1.26pc).

These organic minerals, rich in essential nutrients, promise not just to rejuvenate the soil but to transform farming itself. Despite an 18pc yield drop compared to conventional methods, organic farming shines with benefits that extend far beyond the field. It cuts down the carbon footprint, fuels community development, and spurs rural job creation. Economically, it stands strong with reduced input costs and better prices for organic produce, Dr Ali added.

Amidst these hopeful changes, Gohram Baloch criticises the green revolution’s damage, advocating for a return to more sustainable practices.

Farmers attend a training session at the IDSP office in Quetta.

When cost benefit analysis is done, seven to eight bags of DAP and urea are used which cost around Rs18,000 to Rs7,000 respectively. However, organic farming now thrives with just Rs22,000 for five acres — a fraction of the cost.

This June, IDSP’s review meetings revealed a breakthrough — farmers have broken the cycle of debt and interest that once defined their existence; their financial struggles a thing of the past, Baloch declared.

Seed of hope

The IDSP now plans to spread its success across five districts. The vision is to further empower farmers by shifting organic fertiliser production from centralised units to their own hands.

The transformation doesn’t stop there. With IDSP’s district-level setup, farmers will also gain access to local seed storage, fostering independence and sustainability. This initiative isn’t just about farming — it’s about reshaping the future of agriculture, district by district, said Baloch.

IDSP is now also championing a brighter future with its initiative, ‘Seed of Hope’. “Through GPO courier, we’re launching a new line of organic products such as flour, mustard oil, and millet,” said Gohram. At Karachi’s farmer market, the vision comes full circle as farmers are encouraged to sell directly, cutting out middlemen and ensuring fair profits. The purpose extends beyond selling produce; it’s to empower farmers and bring hope to the forefront of agriculture, he concluded.

Header Image: This image is taken from Shutterstock

As Britain burns, echoes of a dark past reverberate through the South Asian diaspora

It’s a deeply unsettling realisation to see the place you’ve come to call home suddenly feel so unwelcoming and even dangerous.

Mannal Ejaz 

Published August 9, 2024

DAWN

The violent protests by far-right groups over the last couple of weeks seem to have chillingly resurrected Britain’s dark legacy. The cataclysm began on July 29, when the tragic stabbings of six-year-old Bebe King, seven-year-old Elsie Dot Stancombe, and nine-year-old Alice Dailca Aguiar at a Taylor Swift-themed dance workshop in Southport stirred echoes of the nation’s grim history. Their untimely deaths unleashed a storm of anguish and reflection, rekindling the shadows of a past marred by racist rhetoric and brutal intolerance.

At first, I didn’t think much of it, but soon, a creeping sense of uncertainty began to take hold. The fear hit me unexpectedly, starting with a late-night message from my flatmate on Monday. They offered to walk me home or to the station if I felt uneasy, and that’s when it truly sank in — I was scared. Scared to leave the house, scared to return home from work, simply because I am a brown Muslim. As the night progressed, texts from friends of colour began flooding in, checking if I had reached home safely and urging me to stay in, work from home, and avoid going out alone. My mother, all the way in Pakistan, shared the same concern, urging me to seek permission to work from home for safety.

A view shows the interior of a cafe that was set on fire during anti-immigration protests on Saturday in Belfast, Northern Ireland, on August 8, 2024. — Reuters

Conversations with South Asian friends in London revealed that we all shared this unease. Many had cancelled plans, opting for safety over routine. The tension in the air was palpable, unlike anything I’d experienced before.

As an immigrant, this was the first time I felt that my ethnicity and religion might make me a target for violence. It’s a deeply unsettling realisation to see the place you’ve come to call home suddenly feel so unwelcoming and even dangerous — especially after leaving Pakistan, a country conventionally considered unsafe and turbulent, to feel safer here.

Disinformation fuels the fire

The heart-wrenching deaths of Bebe King, Elsie Dot Stancombe, and Alice Dailca Aguiar ignited a nationwide uproar, fuelled by a wave of disinformation that spread like wildfire. It was falsely claimed that the attacker was a Muslim man named “Ali Al-Shakati.” To stoke the flames further, a sensational story circulated that he had entered the UK illegally on a dinghy boat in 2023.

The reality is that no such person as Ali Al-Shakati exists. This misinformed narrative incited individuals to take violent measures, who were swiftly labelled as far-right extremists by much of the Western media. However, the use of politicised language obscures the hateful nature of these acts and mischaracterises the protests as mere far-right demonstrations. In reality, they represent far-right extremism, Islamophobia, and extreme levels of racism.

Security forces stand guard as riots erupt in Hull, Britain, on August 3, 2024, in this picture obtained from social media. — Reuters/ Social Media

These extremist groups rampaged through the streets, demolishing shops, hotels, and places offering refuge to immigrants in a reckless bid to ‘send them back.’ The violence and fear-mongering soon created a climate of uncertainty and apprehension across the nation, with many feeling increasingly vulnerable in their own communities. While the far-right’s penchant for violence against immigrants and asylum seekers is well-documented, the specifics of this case require careful verification.

The attack in Tamworth made headlines, where far-right extremists targeted a Holiday Inn housing asylum seekers. The rioters attempted to storm and set fire to the building, reflecting a broader surge in anti-immigrant violence following recent tragedies. These incidents highlight the escalating hostility towards immigrants, fuelled by disinformation and political scapegoating, echoing the UK’s troubled history with racism and xenophobia. The unrest has sparked widespread condemnation as the nation grapples with the resurgence of far-right extremism.
The rhetoric of racism

The far-right-led riots in the UK can be partly attributed to political figures and media outlets using migration as a scapegoat for broader economic failures, deflecting attention from the real issues. With the impacts of the Ukraine war and Covid-19 significantly straining the UK’s economy, some politicians have chosen to focus public attention on migration as a major problem, despite evidence to the contrary. This rhetoric has not only fuelled hostility and violence but also ignored the more pressing challenges. This framing of migrants as the cause of economic and social woes has led to a toxic environment, stoking fear and division within communities.

With the latest developments, the immigrant diaspora vividly recalls accounts of the era when “paki-bashing” was rampant, driving people of colour into their homes out of fear of being targeted in the streets.

The term “paki-bashing” first publicly emerged in 1970 in East London, a period when far-right extremists would routinely attack South Asian immigrants, especially those from Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh. These communities faced physical assaults, verbal abuse, and systemic discrimination, driven by far-right groups like the National Front. This led to a climate of fear and division, underscoring the pressing need for racial equality and protection against hate crimes.

The slur “paki” itself, originating in the UK in the 1960s, was a product of rising racial tensions and the influx of South Asian immigrants. Exploited by far-right groups, this term became a tool of oppression during the 1970s and 1980s, symbolising a broader agenda of racial hostility.

Protestors throw fireworks as the riots continue into the night in Liverpool on August 3, 2024. — Reuters

The London Chest Hospital, where a third of the staff were people of colour, became a focal point for these attacks. One night, two South Asian employees were brutally assaulted by far-right extremists on their way to work. The Observer’s coverage of this incident was the first public mention of “paki-bashing,” likening the actions of the extremists to those of the Hitler Youth. Just days later, Tosir Ali, a 50-year-old South Asian man, was murdered by far-right extremists on his way home, a chilling escalation that made national headlines.

The murder of Altab Ali in 1978 was another tragic milestone, where the textile worker from Bangladesh, was stabbed to death in London, in a racially motivated killing. His death galvanised the local community to take a stand against racial violence. This act of brutality highlighted the pervasive nature of racism in the UK, particularly in East London, where far-right extremists and far-right elements frequently terrorised South Asians. Altab Ali’s death spurred a movement, leading to organised protests and the eventual renaming of a park in Whitechapel in his honour, serving as a stark reminder of the community’s struggle against hate.

Over the years, however, these acts of violence only became more frequent and organised, with “paki-bashing” becoming a horrifyingly common practice across the UK. In the 1970s and beyond, this form of racial violence also spread beyond the UK, with incidents reported as far as Toronto, Canada. A defining moment of this resurgence occurred when a woman in Belfast paraded the streets with her daughter, chanting “paki’s out, paki’s out,” marking a harrowing moment of racial hatred.

Is there any hope?

Today, groups like the English Defence League (EDL) — far-right, Islamophobic organisation — use Telegram and other platforms to mobilise their supporters and orchestrate mass protests against asylum centres, immigration offices, as well as mosques. These far-right factions leverage social media to propagate their divisive and inflammatory agendas.

In response to the surge in far-right violence, thousands across the UK rallied in counter-protests, showcasing their commitment to unity and tolerance. The far-right’s planned marches largely failed to materialise as counter-protesters flooded the streets in cities like London, Birmingham, and Manchester.

People gather against racism ahead of an anti-immigration protest in London on August 7, 2024. — Reuters

On August 7, thousands of protesters in London participated in a major demonstration against far-right groups. This rally was organised in response to a far-right march planned for the same day. Demonstrators shouted slogans such as “Nazis out” and “No place for hate” as they marched through central London. Over in Manchester, another anti-far-right protest too saw a significant turnout of counter-protesters opposing a far-right event. The demonstrators were vocal with chants including “Nazis out” and “Racists, get out,” reflecting a broad community rejection of far-right ideologies.

These demonstrations saw people from diverse backgrounds coming together to oppose the far-right’s xenophobic and violent rhetoric. The large turnouts underscored a collective resolve to reject hate and uphold multiculturalism, with many emphasising the need for solidarity in the face of growing extremism.

The new government faces mounting pressure, with newly elected Prime Minister Keir Starmer convening a COBRA [Cabinet Office Briefing Room] meeting and vocally denouncing any tolerance for racist rhetoric. He has proposed severe penalties, including up to 15 years in prison for rioting, violence, and hate crimes. While Starmer’s commitment to combating racism is clear, the specifics of COBRA’s deliberations and legislative proposals require confirmation from recent official statements.

A person takes part in a rally supporting migrants and refugees and opposing recent anti-immigration protests, in Brighton on August 8, 2024. — Reuters

The resurgence of such violent rhetoric and actions forces Britain to confront its unsettling past, casting a glaring spotlight on the persistent challenge of eradicating deeply ingrained racism and ensuring that such dark chapters are not relived.

As a first-generation immigrant who arrived in London in 2017, I am part of the contemporary wave of individuals who came to the country, seeking educational and professional opportunities. My family remains in Pakistan, and my journey is emblematic of modern migration patterns.

In the wake of last week’s violence, as a Pakistani Muslim woman, I felt utterly alienated by the nation I hold deep respect for and have found a home in. The spread and impact of disinformation as well as the hateful rhetoric amplified by media platforms and politicians have deeply frustrated not just the South Asian diaspora, but people of colour broadly.

It is heartbreaking to constantly check in with loved ones to ensure their safety and to have to inform my loved ones of my safety, while advising those in the country with me, to stay indoors due to the pervasive climate of fear. The media platforms that have contributed significantly to the spread of hate speech only deepen the sense of alienation and danger.

Yet, witnessing the anti-far-right protests and receiving heartfelt support from my friends and colleagues filled me with a profound sense of hope. It was incredibly moving to hear their expressions of solidarity and care. Despite the pervasive negativity and hatred, their actions reminded me that a far broader majority stands for humanity, unity, and strong moral values. This outpouring of support reassured me that, even in the face of deep-seated prejudice, there is a powerful and enduring commitment to kindness and solidarity.

The author has a background in Politics and International Relations, specialising in South Asian, Middle Eastern, Central Asian, US, and UK politics. She is currently working as a TV producer on “Piers Morgan Uncensored”, where she covers topics ranging from global politics to entertainment.

Iraq prepares bill lowering marriage age for girls from 18 to nine

The first of three readings of the bill has taken place, with protests slated to be held today.

AFP

Updated 08 Aug, 2024

Rights advocates are alarmed by a bill introduced to Iraq’s parliament that, they fear, would roll back women’s rights and increase underage marriage in the deeply patriarchal society.

The bill would allow citizens to choose from religious authorities or the civil judiciary to decide on family affairs. Critics fear this would lead to a slashing of rights in matters of inheritance, divorce and child custody.

In particular, they are worried it would effectively scrap the minimum age for Muslim girls to marry, which is set in the 1959 Personal Status Law at 18 — charges lawmakers supporting the changes have denied.

According to the United Nations children’s agency, UNICEF, 28 per cent of girls in Iraq are already married before the age of 18. “Passing this law would show a country moving backwards, not forward,” Human Rights Watch (HRW) researcher Sarah Sanbar said.

Amal Kabashi, from the Iraq Women’s Network advocacy group, said the amendment “provides huge leeway for male dominance over family issues” in an already conservative society. Activists have demonstrated against the proposed changes and were planning to protest again later Thursday in Baghdad.

The 1959 legislation passed shortly after the fall of the Iraqi monarchy and transferred the right to decide on family affairs from religious authorities to the state and its judiciary.

This looks set to be weakened under the amendment, backed by conservative Shia Muslim deputies, that would allow the enforcement of religious rules, particularly Shia and Sunni Muslim.

There is no mention of other religions or sects which belong to Iraq’s diverse population.

In late July, parliament withdrew the proposed changes when many lawmakers objected. They resurfaced in an August 4 session after receiving the support of powerful Shia blocs which dominate the chamber. It is still unclear if this bid to change the law will succeed when several earlier attempts have failed.

For a bill to become binding it must have three readings, be debated thoroughly and then a vote will be held unanimously.

“We have fought them before and we will continue to do so,” Kabashi said. Amnesty International’s Iraq researcher Razaw Salihy said the proposed changes should be “stopped in their tracks.”

“No matter how it is dressed up, in passing these amendments, Iraq would be closing a ring of fire around women and children,” she said.

According to the proposed changes, “Muslims of age” who want to marry must choose whether the 1959 Personal Status Law or Sharia Islamic rules apply to them on family matters. They also allow already-married couples to convert from civil law to religious regulations.

Constitutional expert Zaid Al-Ali said the 1959 law “borrowed the most progressive rules of each sect, causing a huge source of irritation for Islamic authorities.”

Several attempts to abrogate the law and revert to traditional Islamic rules have been made since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein. This time, lawmakers are maintaining the 1959 law by giving people a chance to choose it over religious authorities.

“They are giving men the option to shop in their favour,” Ali said. The bill would hand them “more power over women and more opportunities to maintain wealth, control over children, and so on.” By giving people a choice, “I think they’re trying to increase the chances of the law being adopted,” Ali said.

The new bill gives Shiite and Sunni institutions six months to present a set of rules based on each sect to parliament for approval.

By giving power over marriage to religious authorities, the amendment would “undermine the principle of equality under Iraqi law,” Sanbar of HRW said. It also “could legalise the marriage of girls as young as nine years old, stealing the futures and well-being of countless girls.”

“Girls belong on the playground and in school, not in a wedding dress,” she said. HRW warned earlier this year that religious leaders in Iraq conduct thousands of unregistered marriages each year, including child marriages, in violation of the current law.

The rights groups say child marriages violate human rights, deprive girls of education and employment, and expose them to violence. Lawmaker Raed Al-Maliki, who brought the amendment forward and earlier this year successfully backed an anti-LGBTQ bill in parliament, denied that the new revisions allow the marriage of minors.

“Objections to the law come from a malicious agenda that seeks to deny a significant portion of the Iraqi population” the right to have “their status determined by their beliefs,” he said in a television interview.

But Amnesty’s Salihy said that enshrining religious freedom in law with “vague and undefined language” could “strip women and girls of rights and safety.”

Los Angeles will urge public transit at ‘no car’ 2028 Games

Reuters Published August 11, 2024

PARIS: Mallory Swanson (R) of the US scores the winner during the women’s football gold medal match against Brazil at the Parc des Princes on Saturday. Following a goalless first half, Swanson broke the deadlock 12 minutes after the break as the US claimed the Olympic gold in women’s football for a record-extending fifth time. It is the first time the US have taken the Olympic title in 12 years, their gold in Paris adding to those won in 1996, 2004, 2008 and 2012.—AFP

PARIS: Los Angeles, a city famous for its passionate car culture and notorious for its traffic, will strongly emphasise the use of public transportation when it hosts the Olympic Games in 2028, LA Mayor Karen Bass said on Saturday.

LA is the birthplace of the modern freeway system but its decades-long romance with the automobile has come with a cost, including soul-crushing congestion and frequently poor air quality.

“The no car Games means that you will have to take public transportation to get to all of the venues,” Bass said at a press conference in Paris. “In order to do that, we have been building out our transports and system.”


Bass said the city will utilize 3,000 buses loaned to it from around the country to ease traffic congestion. The US government last month pledged $900 million to help improve the city’s rail and bus systems in anticipation of the Games.

While the phrase “no car Games” is sure to raise eyebrows among Angelenos, there will be no prohibition on driving to venues like Dodger Stadium and the Rose Bowl, which have parking lots.

Instead the idea is to encourage the use of public transit as much as possible.

“We’re already working to create jobs by expanding our public transportation system in order for us to have a no car Games,” Bass said. “And that’s a feat in Los Angeles, because we’ve always been in love with our cars. But we’re already working to ensure that we can build a greener Los Angeles.”

Published in Dawn, August 11th, 2024

Iran finds new export destinations for its oil

Reuters Published August 11, 2024 

LONDON: Iran has sent small shipments of crude oil to new destinations such as Bangladesh and Oman, according to shipping sources and data, the latest sign of Tehran pushing to sustain output at close to its highest in five years.

Oil Minister Javad Owji said in July that Iran was selling crude oil to 17 countries, including those in Europe, according to the semi-official Mehr News Agency. The details could not corroborated.

In one new trade, the Golden Eagle tanker sai­l­ed near the port of Chit­tagong in Bangladesh earlier this year after receiving oil from another vessel that loaded it from Irans Kharg Island according to available evidence based on shipping data, Claire Jungman, from US advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told Reuters.

The Golden Eagle offlo­aded parts of the cargo to smaller tankers around Chitt­agong in April, said Jun­gman, whose organisation tracks Iran-related tanker traffic via satellite.

The shipment to Bangla­desh was separately confirmed by another oil export tracking source.

An official with state-owned Bangladesh Petr­oleum Corporation, which operates the country’s main refinery, said it did not buy the cargo and it was difficult to establish who was the buyer.

Iranian officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At least eight cargoes of oil — mostly from Iran — were heading to Syria with some already discharged, shipping sources said. Shipments to Syria,

A separate tanker delivered a cargo believed to be Iranian crude oil into the Omani port of Sohar in June after loading the consignment via a ship-to-ship transfer with another vessel that picked up the shipment from Iran’s Kharg Island earlier this year, UANI’s Jungman said, citing shipping data.

Published in Dawn, August 11th, 2024

Trade, debt and poverty reduction

Zafar Masud | Sayem Ali 

Published August 9, 2024

DAWN


The World Bank’s International Debt Report 2023 highlights that surging interest rates and external shocks have intensified debt vulnerabilities in all developing countries.

In the past three years alone, there have been sovereign defaults in 10 developing countries — greater than the number recorded in all of the previous two decades. The report warns that about 60 per cent of low-income countries are at high risk of debt distress or already experiencing it.

In a recent WTO panel discussion in Geneva on ‘Mainstreaming trade: the way out of debt crises for developing countries’, it was argued that trade competitiveness and productivity are prerequisites for better debt management.

While the reduction of debt through trade (and FDI) is a long-drawn process, it’s the only sustainable path to growth and poverty reduction.

According to the World Bank, a one per cent increase in FDI as a share of GDP leads to a 0.38pc increase in economic growth. South Korea is an example of how implementation of trade liberalisation and comprehensive industrial policies has led to a war-ravaged state in the 1960s graduating to a high-income country in the 2000s.

The starting point in achieving trade competitiveness is striking a balance between promoting exports (export bias) and protecting domestic interests (import substitution). The success of the Asean economies and China in moving from protectionism to trade liberalisation has led to a significant increase in incomes and a reduction in poverty over the last three decades.

Pakistan has experimented with trade liberalisation; however, there has been a complete shift back to protectionism since 2008, with a rise in customs duty and additional taxes (regulatory duties).

The tariffs collected at the import stage constitute around 48pc of Pakistan’s total tax in 2022. Pakistan’s weighted average mean tariff of 12.7pc is the highest amongst the top 70 exporting countries in the world. In comparison, the weighted average tariff of the top 70 exporting nations is 2.7pc.

The South Asian average is 5.9pc, the Asean average is 2.5pc, China is 3.8pc and India 5.8pc. Pakistan has the second highest effective protection for domestic producers of final consumption goods in the world, as intermediate inputs and raw materials typically have much lower tariffs than consumer goods.

The starting point in achieving trade competitiveness is striking a balance between promoting exports and protecting domestic interests.

As a result, Pakistan has been unable to develop a strong export base and has fallen behind regional economies in terms of per capita growth. Even today, more than 50pc of its exports rely on only four markets — the US, EU, China and Afghanistan.

The country has been losing competitiveness in international markets and finds it harder to sell its exports within its traditional markets. About 70pc of Pakistan’s exports continue to be low-tech; the country is unable to diversify its commodities and markets, with textiles and clothing (about 5pc to world trade) accounting for around 58pc of our total exports.

Pakistan’s loss of competitiveness is evident from the fact that its export-to-GDP ratio was only 8.4pc in 2023, whereas in India it was 19pc and in Bangladesh 15pc. A recent World Bank report highlights that between 1991-2021, labour productivity in Pakistan lagged behind other countries, rising only from about $3,200 to $4,700, a multiple of 0.5, compared to Vietnam, where it shot up from $1,200 to $6,000, a multiple of five.

The country has also tried selected liberalisation through free trade agreements with selected countries. However, this has not led to any incremental increase in exports, and, in fact, has led to the widening of the trade deficit.

Pakistan has distorted trade relations with its neighbours. The World Bank suggests that a 10pc reduction in trade barriers within South Asia could lead to a 31pc increase in regional trade.

A study by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute suggests that a 1pc increase in trade openness leads to a 0.8pc decrease in the risk of interstate armed conflict. The World Bank estimates that Pakistan’s exports could increase by a staggering 80pc, or about $25 billion, if trade with India reached its full potential.

According to the State Bank, about 45pc of Pakistan’s imports could be imported from India at a lower cost than the rest of the world, with average savings estimated between 0.3pc to 0.7pc of GDP per annum, whereas, about 70pc of the items exported from Pakistan have unit values less or equal to the Indian imports’ unit values, indicating a scope to enhance exports to 1.9pc of GDP.

While we strongly advocate the removal of trade barriers, any policy changes must be done gradually to allow domestic firms time to position themselves to benefit from the reduction in trade barriers.

Apart from tariff rationalisation, there’s also a need to build trade infrastructure and improve trade facilitation. The World Bank estimates that a 1pc reduction in the cost of trade leads to a 0.7pc increase in trade volumes.

We also need to revamp the fiscal and monetary incentives to exporters, introducing targeted and time-bound incentives that are linked to performance. The access to these incentives should not be limited to only traditional export industries.

These reforms have become critical to enhancing exports, attracting long-term foreign investment, and getting Pakistan out of debt distress. Vietnam launched the Doi Moi reforms in 1986, moving away from a ‘centralised planned economy’ to a global manufacturing and export hub, sustaining a growth rate of 7pc over the last three decades. Poverty rates fell from 40pc in the 1980s to less than 5pc in 2022.

Pakistan needs a new, home-grown economic plan. The current structure of the economy distorts the allocation of resources, stifling productivity growth. The new growth plan must focus on integrating Pakistan with the global economy by removing the anti-export bias and protectionist policies.

There is an urgent need for corrective actions to improve the investment climate, which will boost private and foreign investments in the economy.

Zafar Masud is president and CEO of the Bank of Punjab. Sayem Ali is an economist.

Published in Dawn, August 9th, 2024

PAKISTAN

Challenges to social cohesion

CONFRONTING a polycrisis mostly of its own making, the state’s governing capacity has gravely weakened and is wobbling between distress and failure.

Shahid Kardar 

Published August 10, 2024 

DAWN

There are increasing signs that degeneration has set in, with the capability to deliver on the social contract between the citizenry and the rulers compromised — even when it comes to the primary function of providing security to life and property. An attempt is made below to identify the manifestations of the polycrisis.

The country is teetering on the brink of financial insolvency, as the economy is hard-pressed to bear the burden of a bloated, predatory and extractive state machinery and its key functionaries’ lavish perks and privileges. The privileged segments, state functionaries and those well-connected with decision-makers have arrogated to themselves increasing shares of the pie.

Representative and supporting institutions lack moral legitimacy and general public ownership. Disenfranchised, people are discontented; they are not able to participate freely, openly and transparently in the political process, and are also hurt by the absence of the rule of law.

There is a deepening sense of vulnerability due to growing terrorism, the nature of the governing class, and the failure of administrative governance. The gap between diminishing state capability and the challenges being faced makes the task formidable.

Civilian institutions, which serve as pillars on which the structure of the state rests, are largely dysfunctional and in a condition of utter disrepair. The institutions are fragile, with a disempowered executive, an inadequately functioning bureaucracy with limited capability, a rubber-stamping parliament, and a judiciary unable to operate a grievance redressal system, especially against the state. All of them also suffer from a lack of internal stability and unity, having depleted their professional independence.

The growing gap between state capability and challenges has made the task formidable.

The reasons are several: political and establishment interference, mismanagement, non-merited appointments to decision-making positions driven by a culture of loyalty and patronage, sheer incompetence as an outcome of inadequate resource allocations for decent quality education and skill development, and ‘entrenched institutionalised corruption’. The challenge is how to remedy this situation by making these institutions ‘normal’ through orderliness, harmony, and consistency.

Then, there are self-serving definitions of national interest. A rational view of engagement with the world is missing. While harbouring a victim syndrome, we also entertain an exaggerated view of our own importance. In the past, this assessment was fed by fortuitous global events, coupled with an institutionally ingrained belief that the establishment was better equipped to address the country’s multifarious challenges, while holding a poor opinion of the capability of civilian institutions to deliver on such a mission.

It is difficult for the vast majority of the labour force, with limited education and skills, to participate meaningfully in the modern economy, which is also constrained by suffocating regulations.

The education and skill development systems have failed to enable this participation. Even university education is not producing knowledge and skill — nor the ability to acquire it — to meet the market demands of an economy growing at barely 2.5-3 per cent. The latest Labour Force Survey reveals that 31pc of graduates are unemployed and 34pc of 15-to-29-year olds have simply dropped out of the labour force.

Social indicators have not been allocated adequate funds for investments and operational spending. While spending on education and health was 1.7pc of GDP in the 1980s, 3pc of GDP in the 1990s, and 2.3pc of GDP in the 2000s, the comparatives for defence have been 6.5pc of GDP, 5.6pc of GDP and 3.6pc of GDP respectively, enabling establishment-related institutions to strengthen their capabilities significantly. To their credit, they deployed these resources to create and embed a culture of discipline and internal cohesion and a meritocratic system for career progression. They also brooked no civilian interference in their institutional affairs, jealously guarding their independence.

The economy is not growing at a pace to absorb the high population growth rate. But thanks to the internet and cable television, the youth is exposed to global developments, magnifying the challenges of managing expectations.

The state’s huge footprint on the economy distorts markets, blocks opportunities and raises the cost of doing business through excessive, obsolete and flawed regulations — with little clarity about why activity needs regulation. All this is presided over by a generalist, cadre-dominated civil service with a 19th-century mindset.

A highly protected industrial structure is producing low productivity and low value-added goods. The growth of one such industry has created markets for others (each flourishing with varying degrees of inefficiencies). The economy’s competitiveness is being eroded by a power sector beleaguered by poorly negotiated contracts, incompetence and misgovernance.

While there is deep-seated mistrust between Islamabad and the smaller provinces, widening regional disparities in growth rates, quality of physical infrastructure and social and economic services have contributed to ethnic and intercommunal strains and stresses. Even the much-referred to monolithic category of the youth as an emerging vocal stakeholder is alienated along national/ ethnic/ values lines, with little by way of a sense of shared identity, shared values and moral compasses between, say, the youth of Punjab and those of Balochistan and KP.

Society is fractured and polarised, both horizontally and vertically. Social divides are deepening, the space for talks is narrowing and hampering possibilities of coexistence, which is critical to social cohesion.

The result of all this is an unfair socioeconomic structure.

Social cohesion built around a set of values requires a holistic approach to our sociopolitical and economic affairs. It needs reconfiguration of state and society. This is a huge challenge. Tackling it would be overwhelming for the most capable leadership anywhere in the world. And what are we blessed with? Subsequent articles on the key issues will attempt to propose the structures, policy actions, instruments, and institutional arrangements on the way forward.

The writer is a former governor of the State Bank of Pakistan.

Published in Dawn, August 10th, 2024

AI versus economists

Aqdas Afzal 

Published August 10, 2024 

DAWN

Down Main Street from Union Station and the National World War I Museum stands the imposing Kansas City Fed, one of 12 regional offices of the Federal Reserve (Fed), the US central bank.

The Kansas City Fed has become synonymous with holding one of the most important economic policy symposiums each year. In late August, policymakers, central bankers and economists will gather in the picturesque town of Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for ‘Reassessing the effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy’.

This reassessment has become necessary due to the poor performance of the Fed’s current economic models used for forecasting inflation. Back in March-April 2021, when inflation started rising in the US, the Fed’s workhorse models failed to flag anything unusual. Tightness of the labour market, or what are known as Phillips curve effects, did not appear to be of concern, while inflation expectations were not anchored on the upside.

Despite economic models not portending inflation, the US ended up experiencing explosive inflation — the highest in 40 years. So much so that the Fed still appears leery of making a policy pivot towards lower interest rates despite a significant drop in inflation.

This recent failure to predict inflation demonstrates the narrowness of existing economic models, meaning that present economic models are not able to go beyond quotidian predictions. There are now also additional drivers of inflation, such as the ongoing structural transformations in the global economy as countries move from free trade to strategic trade.


What if, tasked with eradicating poverty, AI decides to reduce the population of poor people instead?

Given such gaps and the need to incorporate different variables, recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) can add tremendous value to economic policymaking over the next few years.

Economists are taught to let theory guide the selection of variables in economic models. They are strongly advised to avoid a ‘kitchen sink’ approach, including too many variables, but often ending up with spurious inferences.

But, since economic theory cannot possibly identify every single variable, one workaround has been ceteris paribus, or the assumption that the world outside a model does not change. Sadly, not only has this assumption led to poor model fitness, but whatever relationships are established can only be described as ‘partial’ theories.

Recent advances in AI, particularly in deep learning involving neural networks like Large Language Models — GPT-4, for instance — demonstrate the power AI brings to economic analysis. LLMs have been shown to be remarkably resilient in “overparameterised” models — that is, when the number of model parameters exceeds even the number of data points — thereby heralding a potential paradigm shift in economic research by ending ceteris paribus.

LLMs can analyse structured economic data like GDP, inflation rates, etc, and unstructured text data such as news, reports, a finance minister’s press conference, or even a central bank monetary policy committee’s meeting minutes. LLMs can then be ‘trained’ to understand economic context and sentiments leading to the integration of LLM output with traditional econometric models. Such combined models can then be used to produce powerful economic forecasts.

We seem to be moving towards a future when the finance minister’s presser or the central bank’s monetary policy statement will bring about an instantaneous change in estimates for next year’s key economic indicators, such as economic growth.

Instantaneous economic adjustments are not entirely new. A number of firms have been using ‘dynamic pricing’, when prices continually adjust to reflect real-time supply and demand conditions. This is exactly what happens when different ride-hailing apps charge a ‘peak factor’ during elevated demand, for instance, at the end of a concert.

Given the exponential rate of AI development, dynamic prices will become the norm throughout the economy. Prices will adjust 24/7 like stock prices and, coupled with LLM-based models, the economy will autonomously equilibrate as if driven by an invisible AI hand.

Instead of a central bank trying to take the economy in the direction of a neutral rate of interest, or R-star, through monetary policy, the economy will itself adjust around R-star, the interest rate at which the economy is neither overheating nor in recession. Monetary policy — and all other econo­mic policies — will become endogenous to real-time economic ground realities. In such a future with autonomous economic adjustments, who would want to place faith in the whimsical ways of finance ministers, central bankers and economists?

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

The hype about AI appears a bit premature. AI is not truly intelligent in the way humans are. The much-touted LLMs are fundamentally pattern-spotting engines that cannot differentiate between what is linguistically probable and what is factually correct, leaving LLMs to ‘hallucinate’.

Human beings also hallucinate, but they can also imagine, creating counterfactual scenarios in their minds that can throw up clues about ‘unknown un-knowns’ — variables whose omission remains hidden from us, at least initially. Lacking the ability to imagine, AI has no way of discovering omitted variables.

AI also does not operate in a normative context; it neither has the ability to assign value to policy options nor the capability to carve a permissible action path. Rather, AI reinforces biases of those who design algorithms. In an offensive mistake, Google’s photo app labelled some African-Ameri­cans ‘gorillas’, leading to strong condemnation.

Bereft of a values compass, AI often behaves unexpectedly, raising doubts about whether it can be entrusted with policymaking. In the 1980s, an AI decision support engine called EURISKO sank its own slowest-moving vessel to maintain manoeuvrability in a naval wargame. AI will do what you ask, but not necessarily what you meant. What if tasked with eradicating poverty, AI decides to reduce the population of poor people instead?

Traditional economic models stand to gain much from exponential leaps in AI development. The incorporation of LLMs into economic forecasting might render economists redundant. But, due to serious issues with AI lacking ‘alignment’ with human goals and values, economists’ jobs are secure, at least for now.

The writer completed his doctorate in economics on a Fulbright scholarship.

aqdas.afzal@gmail.com

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Published in Dawn, August 10th, 2024

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Big friendships

Muna Khan

Published August 11, 2024 

DAWN

MY friend Meena came to visit with her family, and it was the right cheer I needed from the usual dreariness that comes with consuming news and being online 24/7. Nothing compares to spending time with your best friend or, as the kids call it, my ‘ride or die’.

We had breakfast a few times together, we caught up with our friends and extended family; we discovered new places, revisited old haunts; we attended a qawwali, listening to a new troupe she’d not heard before, and, of course, we ate a lot of barbeque, ma­­ngoes and paan. And her daughters taught me what the kids are saying, doing, uploading, which proves handy when teaching.

We all have those friends with whom we enjoy a special bond. You can go months, maybe years without speaking to them, but then pick up like you’d been in touch forever when you reconnect. Unlike childhood, where friendships are formed around play, as we grow older our priorities change, and sometimes friendships change too, but what we want from them, doesn’t.

A relationship expert in 2020 told The Atlantic magazine that “young adulthood is the golden age for forming friendships”. It is usually our first time as independent adults outside home and school, navigating life. We choose our friends and learn concepts of intimacy and care with them.


This generation born into a screen world has different challenges.

While Meena was here, I noticed a reduction in a chronic pain condition I have been afflicted with for years. I wasn’t always reaching for the pain relief balm, whose menthol smell has come to be associated with me. I wasn’t waking with the same stiffness, or doing my exercises every two hours for pain management, etc. Of course, I recognise that a change in routine can uplift the mood, as it does each time I meet friends MS, ZB and HZ here, whenever we can manage.

There’s science to back up my claims. Research shows people with “thriving social networks” tend to be healthier. It is down to understanding the biopsychosocial model of health, which examines health and wellness through biology, psychology and environment. It is no longer the purview of kooky science and the amount of research into this, from the 1960s, has shown how social connections can play a role in a person’s longevity.

In short, your friends can influence your immune system’s strength and your heart health, according to a story in the BBC. They help you live longer — along with a moderate, balanced diet, limited drinks and snacks, no tobacco, good sleep and exercise. Social connections are just as important, new research tells us, and they have been documented “using multiple methods to quantify people’s social connections” across different populations, using different measurement types, says the BBC. What’s more, research has seen “parallel effects in other social species” like dolphins, chacma baboons and rhesus monkeys. “The more integrated an individual is within its group, the greater its longevity,” the BBC says.

If our friends can increase our longevity, is the opposite also true?

Social media has also changed the meaning of a friend. You wouldn’t invite a stranger to your home but you are adding friends of friends you’ve not, people you just met, sometimes strangers, on your socials. These online communities have benefits — they help us through difficult times, make us feel less alone, etc, but they cannot replace familial connections. They keep you in a silo, as you’re only friends with people online because of a shared value or belief. Think of rabid political party supporters or incels online who lack intolerance. This is not the case in the real world, where you will likely not have the same opinions, for exa­m-­ple, on gender iden-tity, but can still talk about it without resorting to abuse.

The slow eros­ion of communities, that consisted of friends, families, neighbours in the mohalla, has chan­ged the way we communicate with each other. Especially as internet penetration has grown in the country — by 24 million from January last year to January 2024, according to Kepios. If we’re only being angry and resentful online, that frustration is going to show up somewhere. We’ve seen that intolerance for different views and misogyny online also convert to violence in real life. People have used social media to groom young people into doing illicit drugs, hating, and organising violent encounters.

Who amongst us was not warned about the one friend in their group that was a bad influence? We learned, sometimes the hard way, but came out stronger because we had communities looking out for us. However, this generation born into a screen world has different challenges.

How can we use our elders and our friendships as models to “expand our conceptions of intimacy and care” as The Atlantic wrote? Teaching by example yields the best results. Our kids need our friends as much as we do.

The writer is a journalism instructor.
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Published in Dawn, August 11th, 2024

BANGLADESH

Hasina’s downfall

Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry 

Published August 11, 2024 

DAWN

 

AS Sheikh Hasina Wajed boarded a military helicopter to flee from Dhaka last Monday, TV television screens showed scenes of angry protesters ransacking her official residence and hacking away at statues of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the first leader of Bangladesh, who himself was assassinated this month in 1975.

The student-led protests over civil service job quotas spiralled out of control and became the immediate cause for the downfall of Sheikh Hasina, who ruled Bangladesh from 1996 to 2001, and then again from 2009-2024. However, most Bangladesh watchers believe she was sitting atop a volcano waiting to erupt, a volcano that her own repressive policies, human rights abuses, and a rigged election last January had created.

Since 2009, Hasina had ruled Bangladesh with an iron fist. Systematically, she clamped down all political opponents. Her main political rival, Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, who served twice as prime minister, was caught in a web of legal cases and sentenced to 17 years in prison in 2018.

The leaders of the Jamaat-i-Islami also faced brutal persecution; many of them were convicted and executed by a so-called international crimes tribunal. In the final days before her unceremonious end, Hasina had exhorted Awami League supporters to fight the demonstrators, which brought the country to the brink of a civil war.


Pakistan and Bangladesh can make a fresh start.

Where is Bangladesh headed now? In the wake of Hasina’s flight, complete mayhem has engulfed the country. The residences of former ministers were ransacked, and Mujibur Rahman’s home in Dhanmondi was attacked. The police went on strike, and total chaos enveloped the country for days. Parliament has been dissolved, and an interim government headed by Muhammad Yunus formed.

The top priority at this stage is to restore law and order and then hold fresh elections so that a truly representative government comes to power. If that is not done, the unrest might continue because the people would not want to move from one dictatorial rule (Sheikh Hasina’s) to another. It is important for the people to resume their life. As it is, Bangladesh’s economy had begun to decline after years of impressive growth, and economic inequalities and unemployment have increased.

To what extent are these developments a setback for India, the Sheikh Hasina regime’s main foreign backer? India’s foreign policy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has increasingly become more assertive and hegemonic towards its smaller neighbours. Bangladesh under Sheikh Hasina’s watch was being perceived as subservient to India, much to the resentment of the people, who wanted India’s friendship but not its dominance.

This writer had the opportunity to participate in the Bay of Bengal conversations in Dhaka in 2022, and could sense growing discomfort regarding India’s dominating influence over Bangladesh. In that session, a Bangladeshi-American scholar discussed his article ‘Saath saath [together] or too close for comfort?’ on Bangladesh’s relations with India. In many ways, it represented the prevailing sentiment.

How will these developments affect Pakistan’s relations with Bangladesh? This is an opportunity to reset ties. Sheikh Hasina had cut off all links with Pakistan, even though her father, Mujibur Rahman, had committed to ‘forgetting the past and making a fresh start’ when he signed a tripartite agreement between Bangladesh, India and Pakistan in April 1974.

Sheikh Hasina refused to bury the bitterness of the past, and started using the UN platform to pro­pagate false claims that three million Bengalis were killed in 1971, a claim that is grossly exaggerated and evidentially re­­jected by impartial observers. It is re­­g­rettable that exces­ses were committed by all sides, and hence it is important for both countries to let bygones be bygones and move on. Instead, she tried to politicise the events of 1971 to her own advantage, and continued to deepen estrangement with Pakistan. When India refused to join the Saarc summit in Islamabad in 2016, Sheikh Hasina teamed up with it to make Saarc, which was created in Dhaka in 1985, dysfunctional.

Given that there are large segments of people in Bangladesh and Pakistan who would like to normalise bilateral ties, a fresh beginning can be made, first by the interim government, and later when an elected government assumes power in Bangladesh. One hopes that fresh elections are held soon, as the democratic ethos of the people of Bangladesh must be respected.

An important lesson for Pakistan is for our political parties to adopt a culture of live and let live, respect people’s aspirations, and resolve issues through the democratic way of negotiations in parliament, and not on the streets.

The write is a former foreign secretary and chairman of Sanober Institute Islamabad.

Published in Dawn, August 11th, 2024