Why Telegram chief's arrest raises 'red flags' for tech bosses

Paris (AFP) – Now that France has charged Telegram's founder with failing to stop illegal activity on his platform, other tech bosses may have reason to weigh the wisdom of jetting into Europe themselves.

Issued on: 29/08/2024 - 

Law enforcement agencies across the world have long argued they need access to encrypted messages to stop criminal activity © Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV / AFP/File

Russia-born Pavel Durov is accused of "complicity" in running an online platform that allowed illicit transactions, child sex abuse images and other illegal content.

French lawyers told AFP it was "unprecedented" for an individual to be held criminally liable for what users chose to do on a tech platform.

Chat apps like Telegram -- which boasts having more than 900 million users -- were almost certainly hosting illegal content whether the bosses knew it or not, experts told AFP.

"It's clear that if they take this case against Pavel Durov all the way, any other platform could be threatened with the same thing," lawyer Guillaume Martine told AFP.

However, the idea of X owner Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg, whose Meta group includes Facebook and WhatsApp, being arrested in Europe remained beyond the realms of likelihood.

"I would be very surprised if any EU member state, including France, arrested Elon Musk under similar charges," Jan Penfrat of the European Digital Rights (EDRi) advocacy group told AFP.

"But then again, I was also surprised that they arrested Durov."
'Limited cooperation'

Although comparing these platforms is superficially appealing -- like its competitors, Telegram is not based in France, and Durov is an ally of Musk -- there are key differences.

For one, Durov is a French citizen, making him a much likelier target in France.

But also, although Musk trumpets an extreme free-speech position, he generally complies with government takedown orders on X, the social platform formerly known as Twitter.

Telegram, however, refuses on principle.

"It's true that Telegram is characterised by extremely limited cooperation, if any at all," said digital rights lawyer Alexandre Lazaregue.

"They don't respond to letters, they don't respond to summonses, they don't even have legal representation in court... Whereas Facebook, Twitter, etc still have well-known lawyers in Paris."

And Penfrat said comparisons with services like Signal or WhatsApp were also misleading as they are encrypted by default -- unlike Telegram.

"So Signal and WhatsApp can say: 'We're cooperating, we just don't have the information,'" he said.

"But Telegram says: 'Well, we could give you all that information because it's in plain text on our servers, but we're not going to, sorry.'"
'Red flags'

The particular position of Durov and Telegram suggests other tech bosses do not have anything immediately to worry about.

But Penfrat said he was concerned that the move against Telegram could be used as a precedent to go after other encrypted services.

Law enforcement agencies across the world have long argued they need access to encrypted messages to stop criminal activity.

But services like WhatsApp and Signal have pushed back, saying the only way to do that would be to outlaw encryption.

"It does raise a lot of red flags to see these charges, which seem random and also are just not very convincing," said Penfrat, suggesting it was like trying to blame a knife-maker for a stabbing.

Lawyer Martine said it was "extremely dangerous" to try to hold Telegram accountable for the actions of its users, likening it to prosecuting Europcar for renting a vehicle to a drug trafficker.

Lazaregue concluded that the charges against Durov were pushing the legal definition of "complicity" to breaking point.

"To be convicted of complicity, you still need to be aware that a crime is happening and intend to participate in it," he said.

The man with four passports: Durov's international network

Paris (AFP) – The arrest and charging by France of Telegram founder Pavel Durov has thrown a spotlight on the international connections of a man with at least four passports and high-level contacts but who has also aroused the attention of security agencies around the world.


Issued on: 29/08/2024 - 

Durov has a host of international connections 

© Steve Jennings / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File

Born in 1984 under the USSR into a family of academics in Leningrad, now known as Saint Petersburg, Durov spent his childhood in Italy before his family returned to Russia when the Soviet Union fell.

He stopped living in Russia a decade ago as he set up the Telegram messenger, picking up the citizenship of the Caribbean archipelago of Saint Kitts and Nevis as he sought a base.

Finally basing his company in Dubai, he was given Emirati citizenship in 2021 and in the same year, via a special procedure that remains shrouded in secrecy, French nationality.

Here AFP looks at Durov's key relationships with world powers.

Russia

Durov says he left Russia in 2014, accusing Kremlin allies of seizing ownership of his first social network, the Russian-language VKontakte, after he refused to hand over data of users involved in 2011-2012 protests in Russia and then 2013-2014 demonstrations in Ukraine.

He was regarded by many at the time as a dissident. The Russian authorities in later years sought to block Telegram but unsuccessfully, and the app is seen as a key tool for the military in the invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking to US right-wing talk show host Tucker Carlson in an interview in April, Durov said only people with "very limited knowledge of where Telegram came from" could claim it was an instrument of the Russian government.

But Moscow has in no way disowned Durov during his current legal problems, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warning France against turning the case into "political persecution".

According to the Vazhnye Istorii news site, citing leaked border data, his departure from Russia was anything but an abrupt exile and he visited the country more than 50 times between 2015 and 2021.

France

Media have repeatedly noted that Durov's reception when he was arrested on arrival at Paris Le Bourget airport Saturday was in stark contrast to previous visits.

Le Monde newspaper reported Wednesday that Durov had met President Emmanuel Macron on several occasions prior to receiving French nationality in 2021, via a special procedure reserved for those deemed to have made a special contribution to France.

A source close to the case, who asked not to be named, told AFP on Thursday that after his arrest Durov requested that French telecoms tycoon Xavier Niel, chairman and founder of the Iliad mobile operator and seen as close to Macron, be informed of his arrest.

Durov has said his name in his French passport is written as Paul du Rove, a humorous French translation. His personal Telegram channel is called "Du Rove's Channel".

Another source close to the investigation said Durov had emphasised his links to the French head of state during questioning.

Both Pavel Durov and his elder brother Nikolai, a lower-profile figure seen as the mathematical brain behind Telegram, have been wanted by France since March this year.
United Arab Emirates

Durov says he chose to base Telegram in Dubai after finding the UAE offered a far better business climate than European cities, allowing the company to hire the best people, enjoy a tax-efficient regime and the city's infrastructure.

"We tried several places. We first went to Berlin... We tried London, Singapore. San Francisco. You name it -- we have been everywhere," Durov told Carlson.

"The bureaucratic hurdles were too difficult to overcome," whereas the UAE "turned out to be a great place", he said, lauding the state as "a neutral place... not aligned geopolitically".

The United States

There is no indication Durov ever sought US citizenship but his interview with Carlson threw up some interesting -- if unconfirmed -- insights about his relationship with the country.

He said that at one point he thought San Francisco "would be the place for us" but he was then attacked by "three big guys" who tried to grab his phone while he was tweeting about meeting then Twitter chief Jack Dorsey.

Durov claimed to have come out the better in the altercation. "There was a short fight and a bit of blood involved."

He also said US security agencies gave him "too much attention" whenever he visited, complaining that two FBI agents would always meet him at the airport asking questions.

© 2024 AFP

Telegram chief Durov released on €5 million bail, forbidden to leave France

Russian-born Telegram boss Pavel Durov was released on bail after being placed under formal investigation by French authorities following his arrest as part of a probe related to illegal content carried on his messaging app. Durov was freed after paying a €5 million deposit and instructed not to leave France. The Kremlin, which is closely watching the case, emphasised his status as a Russian citizen and warned against "political persecution".


Issued on: 29/08/2024 -

Telegram's boss Pavel Durov speaks in San Francisco, on September 21, 2015. © Steve Jennings, AFP file photo

By: NEWS WIRES

Telegram chief Pavel Durov was spending Thursday out on bail after four days of detention in France, banned from leaving the country as he faces a possible trial related to illegal content carried on his messaging app.

Russian-born Durov, dressed in black and wearing dark glasses, walked briskly out of the Paris court house late Wednesday into a waiting car after being charged but allowed to go free under judicial supervision.

He thanked his lawyer and was rapidly ushered into the vehicle by a burly man appearing to be a bodyguard, video posted on social media channels showed.

Durov, 39, was charged on several counts of failing to curb extremist and illegal content on the popular messaging app which now has over 900 million followers but has become increasingly controversial.

His lawyer David-Olivier Kaminski said it was “absurd” to suggest Durov could be implicated in any crime committed on the app, adding: “Telegram complies in all respects with European rules concerning digital technology.”

In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned France against turning the case into “political persecution”, emphasising he is a “Russian citizen” and “we will be watching what happens next.”

Among those also voicing support for Durov is fellow tech tycoon and chief executive of X, Elon Musk, who has posted comments under the hashtag #FreePavel.

After the charges, Musk posted a meme on X of a surveillance camera attached to buildings inscribed with France’s motto, “liberty, equality, fraternity.”
‘Near total absence’

Durov was arrested at Le Bourget airport outside Paris late Saturday and questioned in subsequent days by investigators.

01:31


He was granted conditional release on a bail of five million euros and on the condition he must report to a police station twice a week as well as remaining in France, Paris prosecutor Laure Beccuau said in a statement.

The charges concern alleged crimes involving an organised group, including “complicity in the administration of an online platform to enable an illicit transaction”.

This charge alone could see him jailed for up to 10 years and fined 500,000 euros if convicted.

Durov has also been charged with refusing to share documents demanded by authorities as well as “dissemination in an organised group of images of minors in child pornography” as well as drug trafficking, fraud and money laundering.

The Paris prosecutor said the French judicial authorities had been made aware of the “near total absence of a response” from Telegram to requests from the authorities and had first opened an investigation in February 2024.

The next step will be for the case to be sent to trial.

Separately, Durov is also being investigated on suspicion of “serious acts of violence” towards one of his children while he and an ex-partner, the boy’s mother, were in Paris, a source said. She filed a criminal complaint against Durov in Switzerland last year.

The tech mogul founded Telegram as he was in the process of quitting his native Russia a decade ago following a dispute with authorities related to ownership of his first project, the Russian-language social network VKontakte.

An enigmatic figure who rarely speaks in public, Durov is a citizen of Russia, France and the United Arab Emirates, where Telegram is based.

Forbes magazine estimates his current fortune at $15.5 billion, though he proudly promotes the virtues of an ascetic life that includes ice baths and not drinking alcohol or coffee.

Special procedure

Numerous questions have been raised about the timing and circumstances of Durov’s detention, with supporters seeing him as a freedom of speech champion while his detractors paint him as a menace who wilfully allowed Telegram to get out of control.

Le Monde newspaper reported Wednesday that Durov had met President Emmanuel Macron on several occasions prior to receiving French nationality in 2021, via a special procedure reserved for those deemed to have made a special contribution to France.


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The Wall Street Journal added that at one lunch in 2018, Macron—who along with his team was in the past an avid user of Telegram—had suggested it should be headquartered in Paris, but Durov refused.

According to a source, both Pavel Durov and his elder brother Nikolai, a lower-profile figure seen as the mathematical brain behind Telegram, have been wanted by France since March this year.

Durov’s departure from Russia was reportedly not an abrupt exile: according to the Vazhnye Istorii news site, citing leaked border data, he visited the country more than 50 times between 2015 and 2021, adding to questions about his relationship with the Russian authorities.

Meanwhile, a UAE government official said it “prioritises the welfare of its citizens” and was “in touch with the French authorities about this case.”

(AFP)

Nepal: Will new laws offer closure to war crime victims?

Swechhya Raut

DW

August 28, 2024

Nepal's long-awaited transitional justice law is aimed at addressing war crimes committed during the country's 10-year Maoist insurgency.

Both security forces and former rebels have been accused of carrying out torture, killings, rapes and forced disappearances during Nepal's civil war

Image: Narendra Shrestha/dpa/picture alliance

Thousands of people in Nepal are still waiting for justice 20 years after tens of thousands were tortured, raped, killed and forcibly disappeared during a decade-long bloody conflict between the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) and government forces.

Long-delayed amendments to legislation aimed at addressing the war crimes committed during the 1996-2006 civil war are expected to finally offer justice to victims like Laxmi Khadka.

Khadka last saw her husband, Dil Bahadur, on March 13, 2004, when they were eating dinner with their three children at home in their village in Bardiya district in western Nepal.

The meal was disrupted by a group of Maoist soldiers who entered their family home and dragged Bahadur outside, claiming they needed to "discuss some things."

He never returned.

Dil Bahadur's family waited throughout the whole night and for several days, but he never returned

Image: Laxmi Khadka

Two weeks later, a local newspaper reported that the Maoist group had "eliminated" Bahadur as a suspected enemy — although no evidence supported this claim, so Khadka refused to believe that he had been killed.

"He was an ordinary man who had returned home for a few days after months of working in India," she told DW, recalling how she even went looking for her missing husband in the forests near their home.

"It was dangerous, not only because of wild animals but also due to the conflict," she said.

Ten years of conflict

The brutal Maoist insurgency, led by the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) to overthrow the monarchy, ended in 2006 with over 13,000 people dead and around 1,300 missing.

The government of Nepal and the Maoists signed the Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA), which cleared the way for the establishment of two transitional justice mechanisms — the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) and the Commission of Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons (CIEDP).

The commissions were formed to address the human rights violations and crimes against humanity that were committed during the conflict, but they have faced legal challenges.

A 2015 Supreme Court ruling struck down parts of the law that established the TRC and CIEDP, "in particular because they were empowered to grant amnesties to perpetrators of serious crimes under international law," according to Human Rights Watch.

"The law was weak, making it difficult for victims, human rights activists, and civil society to coordinate effectively with the commissions," lawyer Om Prakash Aryal told DW.

He claimed that the government delayed appointing commission members, which risked the destruction of criminal evidence.

"The lawmakers included former government officials and Maoists," Aryal said.

"They blocked international intervention to ensure impunity for actions taken during the conflict."

Nepal's Supreme Court directed the government to revise certain parts of the act.

The amendment to the transitional justice act is intended to help Nepal heal some of the wounds left by the 10-year civil wa

rImage: Devendra Man Singh/AFP/Getty Images

Parliament approves amendments to transitional justice act

In July this year, the three major parties — the Nepali Congress, Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), and Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) — formed a mechanism to find common ground on the contentious provisions in the bill.

They reached a written agreement on the bill earlier this month, and on August 14, Nepal's lower house of parliament approved the long-delayed amendments to the transitional justice act.

Ram Kumar Bhandari, whose father disappeared during the conflict, sees this as a "historic achievement."

Bhandari believes new legal provisions incorporate assurances of truth, justice, and reparation but await the law's effective implementation.

"We've been entangled in the legal and political web for years. Now, we expect an emphasis on the basic needs of grassroots victims and survivors, rather than just legal aspects," he told DW.

Changes welcomed, but issues remain

Prakash Chaudhary, who was forcibly disappeared by the state for 82 days in 2002, welcomed the changes.

In 2005, Chaudhary's younger brother, who was still in school, was killed for allegedly buying instant noodles for the Maoists.

"Our family spent years waiting for justice," said Prakash. "If the new law punishes those responsible for our suffering, our long wait will have been worth it."

Relatives urged Laxmi Khadka to perform her husband's final rites, but she wasn’t ready to accept life as a widow

Image: Laxmi Khadka

However, some human rights activists and organizations have pointed out that problematic provisions remain, including the definition and classification of human rights violations.

Lawyer Om Prakash Aryal noted that the definitions are inconsistent with international human rights standards.

"They do not address issues related to child soldiers and crimes against humanity, which are mentioned in the peace agreement and the interim constitution," he said.

"How can any victim be satisfied when such issues are not addressed by the law?"

Lenin Bista, who was recruited as a Maoist soldier at age 12, shares a similar opinion: "We have been advocating for economic and psychosocial support for child soldiers. But the government continues to deny our existence even in the transitional justice law."
Is compensation being prioritized over justice?

A joint statement from Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and the International Commission of Jurists highlighted that while the law includes several positive provisions, it also has elements that could undermine its effectiveness.

"Transitional justice should not turn into yet another exercise in which victims are encouraged to accept compensation without truth and justice," the statement said.

Khadka, who struggles with the legal jargon used by leaders and organizations, awaits guidance on the next steps. Justice for her means knowing her husband's fate.

"If they prove that my husband was killed, I will perform his last rites," she said. "That will be the most painful truth, but I believe his soul will finally find peace."

Nepal is losing young men to Russia's war in Ukraine  03:55


Edited by: Keith Walker

FASCISMUS

Mind games: Populists' 'downward spiral' to unhappiness

Zulfikar Abbany

DW

August 28, 2024

Right-wing populism is rising across Europe, with Germany’s AfD possibly becoming the first far-right party to win state elections since the Nazis. However, their rise won’t bring greater happiness to their supporters.

A rally of the far-right Alternative for Germany in eastern Germany.

Image: Daniel Lakomski/IMAGO

If you were feeling unhappy, afraid or threatened by the changing reality of your life and surroundings — your neighborhood, work, grocery store — would your first instinct be to join a political party reinforcing those negative feelings?

You might if that very same party told you they — and only they — could fix things for you.

Two researchers found this when they examined voters who had turned to support the German far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

The AfD is classified as a "suspected" far-right extremist organization and is alleged to have used Nazi-era sloganeering. However, there has also been a significant bump in support over the past decade.

In Germany's 2017 election, the AfD became the third-strongest party with 12.6% of the vote. Though support dipped to 10.4% at the next election in 2021, the party received 15.9% of the vote in this year's European elections, a surge driven in part by enticing younger voters. The AfD is also expected to make major strides in upcoming state elections in Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia.

Three reasons the past still shapes eastern Germany today  01:32

The rise of right-wing populism is not just a trend in Germany. Other European countries have seen similar developments.

At the 2024 UK general elections, when the Brexit Party of 2016 became Reform UK, it grew from zero to five parliamentary seats, with a 14.3% share of the total vote. Far-right populists in France and Italy can also boast successes.
Right-wing voter happiness on a 'downward spiral'

The researchers, Maja Adena and Steffen Huck of the Berlin Social Science Center, were interested in AfD voters' sense of happiness, or what psychologists call subjective well-being (SWB). They wanted to discover the emotional impact of supporting a populist party.

And their findings were simple: AfD supporters started unhappy and became unhappier. It's like a "downward spiral," said Adena in an email to DW.

"There is a strong self-selection of unhappy or unsatisfied individuals [turning] to AfD. They're already unhappy. However, the novelty of our study is that we show [their] happiness deteriorate[s] once they're exposed to the AfD's negative rhetoric," said Adena.

The effect was apparently strongest among new AfD supporters, those whose identity as AfD supporters was "not yet fully formed."

In their paper, published in the journal Plos One, Adena and Huck infer that "the initial decision to support a right-wing party … has the most profound negative effect on well-being."

Adena and Huck wrote that they found "causal evidence" to suggest that while new supporters may experience a positive effect because of their "taking a stance," ultimately, the negative rhetoric of "blaming elites," a common theme among populist parties, wears people down.

But there is a silver lining: "While the well-being of long-term supporters stabilizes," Adena told DW. "Those who stop supporting the AfD partly recover" and get a bit happier again.

How political psychologists measure voter happiness

Adena and Huck took data from four surveys between 2017 and 2021, sampling about 4,000 people.

Each time, the respondents were asked to measure their subjective perceptions of personal and financial well-being — how they felt about the past year and the year to come — on a scale.

This is what psychologists call internal referencing: there is no comparison with others; it's just your perception of yourself. The researchers said this would give them more precise data, but this may, in fact, be where the study comes unstuck.

"That part of the study is shaky, to be frank. I don't think you can make any kind of assessment of how you are without making social comparisons," said Fathali Moghaddam, a professor of psychology at Georgetown University's Berkely Center in Washington DC who was involved in the study.

Moghaddam said any sense of happiness or unhappiness must be discussed in relation to the threats people feel.

"And to understand populist movement[s], we have to take the larger, global context into account — the subjective [sense of] instability, the feeling that the world is unstable," said Moghaddam. "Particularly in Europe and in the United States … where white Christians are feeling the world is unstable, that they are being invaded and threatened."

That may indeed motivate one to join a populist movement. That feeling of "taking a stance" can lead to a positive sense of well-being — "I'm taking back control!"
Motivating and demotivating emotions in politics

If you are truly unhappy, however, perhaps even depressed, you may be less likely to "take a stance." Those existing negative emotions combined with negative populist rhetoric is likely to be a complete turn-off for some.

"I was surprised at the angle these authors took because we know that happiness is not a driver for political action, and unhappiness is even less of a driver. Unhappy, depressed people are much more likely to turn away from politics," said Anna Kende, director of the Department of Social Psychology at ELTE University, Budapest, Hungary.

Other studies have suggested that voting for populist parties increases discontent, but, said Kende, discontent is not the same as unhappiness.

On the other hand, the issue of negative rhetoric rang true for Kende. Hungary's populist leader Viktor Orban , and his Fidesz party have been in power for 14 years. Their negative rhetoric never lets up, said Kende. "It's paradoxical because they should have solved all ‘our problems,' but that's not in their interest."

Kende said populists seldom campaign on their success, only on new threats. This can affect voters and their future voting behavior.

"The real seasoned supporters are okay with [this] not delivering, but the new ones, the less strong supporters who maybe at one point in their life feel like, 'OK, the AfD could offer me something,'" said Kende. "For them, this negative repertoire may have a stronger impact, and they may be more likely to turn away at the failure because they were not committed to the start."

The far left are no better off

None of this means that voters on the left of politics are necessarily happier than those on the right.

Research out of Columbia University New York in 2023 suggested that "American adults who identify as politically liberal have long reported lower levels of happiness and psychological well-being than conservatives."

Researchers are unsure why this is, but it may be that people of any political standpoint feel unhappy if their views aren't reflected by governing institutions.

"[From our study], we are far from pinning down the mechanism, unfortunately: whether the observed deterioration in well-being is due to the negative rhetoric of the AfD or rather due to feeling marginalized and non-mainstream. We actually point to both possibilities," said Adena.

Edited by: Fred Schwaller

Primary source:

Support for a right-wing populist party and subjective well-being: Experimental and survey evidence from Germany, published by Maja Adena and Steffen Huck in PLOS ONE (June 2024) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0303133

Germany: Immigrants in east wary of rising far-right AfD

Oliver Pieper

DW

August 28, 2024

The far-right AfD could become the leading party in Germany’s state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, raising concerns among many immigrants. While most are worried, some remain unafraid of the potential shift.

'The East get's it done: Summer, sun, remigration' — the AfD campaigns on an anti-immigration platform in the eastern states

Image: dts-Agentur/dpa/picture alliance

It happened again on a train the other day: When the conductor came to check train tickets, Nour Al Zoubi was the only person in her compartment who needed to show identification. The conductor threatened to call the police if she did not comply. This was a typical situation for this Syrian-born social worker, who now works as a consultant for the Thuringia Refugee Council.

"There is this kind of everyday racism," she told DW. "But after living in Gera for six years, I'm used to it — I know how to handle it."

Moving away is out of the question for Al Zoubi — even if the Alternative for Germany party (AfD), classified as right-wing extremist by Germany's domestic intelligence agency — were to win the Thuringian state election on September 1. Al Zoubi says that Thuringia is her home. She was awarded Gera's Integration Prize in 2020 for a newspaper project she founded for refugees.

After the incident with the train conductor, she received reassurance and encouragement from two older female passengers — things like that make her feel that she can stay.

Syrian-born social worker Nour Al Zoubi experiences everyday racism in Thuringia

Image: Privat

"The number of AfD voters has increased — but so has the number of Germans committed to a culture of welcoming immigrants," she said. Al Zoubi knows some people who are considering leaving Thuringia if the AfD wins, but others don't have the option.

"Not all migrants in Thuringia can. Refugees and asylum seekers are required to stay in Thuringia for three years due to restrictive residence regulations."

Growing anti-immigration sentiment

The mood toward immigrants has been increasingly harsh in Thuringia for some time. The recent knife attack in Solingen in northwestern Germany, which left three people dead, is likely to inflame sentiments even further.

For Al Zoubi, this will mean extra caution — if, for example, things heat up again, such as when AfD Thuringia leader Björn Höcke got his Gera audience to shout Nazi slogans in December 2023, or when the weekly anti-migration protest winds its way through the town's streets. How does Al Zoubi envision the state after the election if the AfD does win?

"We will experience even more racism in public spaces, then. On a higher level. Not just insults, but physical violence, too. That's what I fear. Especially after what just happened in Southport, England," she said, referring to the stabbing of three girls, which triggered riots across the UK.

Germany: Fear of the AfD  05:01

Many migrants fear an AfD election victory

Al Zoubi's gloomy view of the future is not an isolated one. In Dresden, 150 kilometers east of Gera, Ismail Davul is having similar thoughts. Davul was born in Turkey and came to Saxony to study in 2006. He has been working for Dresden's Foreigners' Council for almost 11 years. He mainly helps young migrants, but he also hears parents' concerns.

"Some people have asked me: In which direction is Saxony going?" he told DW. "What will it mean if the AfD wins? Will our living situation then change? The mood is clear: everyone is actually afraid."

Davul often hears about people who might leave Dresden should the AfD win Saxony's state election in September. He and his team reassure them by reminding them that the city council's democratic parties are fighting the shift to the right; that the situation won't change overnight; and that the Foreigners' Council and many civil society organizations are here in Dresden. But the reality is that a growing number of attacks against immigrants in this city are being reported to authorities, Davul told DW.

"In the past: an attack on an immigrant was very rare, it was an isolated incident. Back then, the media condemned such attacks much more than it does now. We hear that migrants are targets of attacks, mobbings, or are spat upon, every single day, just because of their appearance, skin color, or dialect. Sadly, this is almost commonplace on the streets today," Davul said.

Ismail Davul was born in Turkey and has been working for Dresden's Foreigners' Council for almost eleven years

Image: privat

Some have sympathies with the AfD

While many immigrants are extremely worried about AfD election victories in the states of Thuringia and Saxony, others even consider voting for the far-right party, despite its anti-immigration rhetoric and talk of "remigration" — a term coined for the plan to return immigrants to their place of origin, regardless of their citizenship status.

How can those two things coexist? Özgür Özvatan, a political sociologist at Humboldt University in Berlin, explained to DW how the AfD is targeting Erdogan supporters of Turkish origin living in Germany, and immigrants from Russia: In videos they glorify Turkish nationalism and the Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan. To reach Russian-Germans they use the narrative that they were forced to integrate without getting recognition, and are still lacking status in German society. An estimated 6 million Russian-speaking people live in Germany. The majority of them are German nationals: ethnic Germans who came from the former Soviet Union — largely from Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.

Özgür Özvatan is a political sociologist with a special focus on integration and extremism

 Frederic Kern/Geisler/picture alliance

The AfD's message to migrant voters is: You had to work hard for everything when you came, but now the new refugees are being given everything for free.

Özvatan explained that such messages are based on perceived truths — even if they do not stand up to fact-checking. The AfD is campaigning most heavily for the votes of young immigrants on social media like TikTok, with a lot of money and the help of immigrant influencers. Özvatan believes that is down to simple arithmetic: The AfD can only win an election if it also wins over people with an immigration background.

"The AfD has learned how to connect with specific target groups on the new social media platforms. It has understood very well that 'recommendation algorithms' enable almost contradictory positions to be simultaneously spread in this social media world. Above all, there is a structural competitive advantage for anti-democratic parties: abbreviated and false content has a higher potential for virulence."

This article was originally written in German.

FROM STALINISM TO FASCISM

Pessimism dogs eastern Germany despite economic gains


By AFP
August 28, 2024

The city of Jena in eastern Germany is a world-renowned centre of expertise in the field of optics - Copyright AFP/File Tobias SCHWARZ
Florian CAZERES

With its shiny new housing estates, scores of building sites and bustling city centre, Jena represents the fresh face of the former East Germany.

“The former East German states now play a full part… in the success and strength of our economy,” Chancellor Olaf Scholz said at a meeting in the city this week.

Economic problems and a general sense of being disadvantaged are often cited as the reasons why support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is particularly high in the once-communist East Germany.

The AfD emerged as the biggest party in eastern Germany in June’s European Union elections and also looks set to make big gains at regional polls in Thuringia and Saxony on Sunday.

But in fact the former East German states have racked up a slew of positive economic data in recent years, with investment on the rise and unemployment falling.

“For the past 10 years, growth in (eastern Germany) has been higher than the national average,” Axel Lindner, a researcher at the IWH Halle economic institute, told AFP.

As the economic centre of Thuringia, Jena is a world-renowned centre of expertise in the field of optics, with a thriving start-up scene and renowned universities.

In neighbouring Saxony, the city of Dresden has become a hub for the semiconductor industry.


– ‘Top performers’ –


Eastern Germany’s GDP will grow by 1.1 percent this year, almost three times the national average, according to the IFO economic institute, while unemployment fell from 11.6 percent in 2013 to 7.8 percent in 2023.

While the German economy as a whole has stagnated over the past 12 months, partly due to its reliance on exports, the economy in the east of the country, dominated by family businesses and services, has held up well.

Eastern Germany has also been chosen as the location for several large industrial projects, such as Tesla’s electric car plant in Brandenburg, the state that surrounds Berlin.

Partly thanks to the factory, Brandenburg was able to rack up growth of 2.1 percent last year while the country as a whole went into recession.

“Something has happened that we didn’t expect: we are the top performers,” said Carsten Schneider, the government’s commissioner for East German affairs.

Consumer purchasing power has also risen faster in the east than in the west, thanks to recent increases in pension payments and the minimum wage.

Incomes and wealth are still lower in the east, but the gap is narrowing — wages in eastern Germany were around 91 percent of those in the west in 2022, compared with 80 percent in 2015.

However, the picture is different in the region’s rural areas, where the mass exodus of workers and an ageing population and have led to a stubborn sense of pessimism.


– Population decline –


According to a study by the IW economic research institute in Cologne, the shrinking population in rural areas could be the root cause of the region’s high number of protest voters.

“There is a correlation between population decline and pessimism among residents” fuelled by a sense of deprivation and the “disappearance of public services”, Matthias Diermeier, an author of the study, told AFP.

Ironically, the reduction in immigration called for by the AfD could exacerbate this problem and harm the economy, worsening a growing shortage of skilled workers.

By 2030, the working-age population in the eastern regions of Germany is set to fall by 800,000, according to government estimates.

In the run-up to the elections in Saxony and Thuringia, many business leaders have warned the far right could threaten economic development, stressing the importance of diversity and openness.

It was in Jena that the Prussian army was defeated by Napoleon in 1806, sparking the beginnings of German nationalism.

But the AfD scored only 15 percent of the vote in the city in June’s European elections, well below the rest of eastern Germany.

“When you have money in your pocket, you’re automatically less likely to vote for the extremes,” Thomas Nitzsche, the mayor of Jena, told AFP.

In Germany’s industrial east, old traumas boost far right


By AFP
August 28, 2024

'People simply don't want to be deceived anymore,' said Jonas Duenzel, an AfD candidate in the Saxony election - Copyright AFP/File Yuichi YAMAZAKI
Isabelle LE PAGE

In the relatively well-off city of Zwickau, in Germany’s former communist east, economic uncertainty and a turbulent history have combined to drive support for the far right ahead of a key regional election.

“People are afraid of losing everything they’ve built up again over the years,” said Zwickau’s mayor, Constance Arndt.

To understand why “the mood is so bad” ahead of Sunday’s elections in the state of Saxony, one has to “perhaps delve into the past”, she told AFP.

Zwickau residents have “achieved a certain level of prosperity” after a period of painful decline in the wake of German reunification in 1990, she said.

The city owes its revival in part to its status as a hub for automotive manufacturing, with Volkswagen a major employer in the area.

But recent crises, from the coronavirus pandemic to the Ukraine war and high inflation, have triggered a renewed “fear of losing”, said Arndt, 47, from her office overlooking a picturesque market square.

As a result, some are voting for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party “out of protest”, the independent mayor in the city of some 90,000 people added.

At the start of the year, thousands of people in Zwickau nevertheless rallied against the far right following revelations that some members of the anti-Islam, anti-immigrant AfD had joined a meeting that discussed plans for mass deportations of asylum seekers.

The rallies, which also took place across Germany, were at the time seen as a rare mobilisation of the so-called silent majority against right-wing extremism.

But it didn’t last long.

In early June, the AfD won a municipal election to become the largest group on Zwickau’s district council.

Although the AfD fell short of a majority, council discussions are expected to become more challenging, the mayor predicted, particularly regarding cultural funding.



– Swastikas –



On a sweltering day in August, social worker Joerg Banitz pointed out several swastika tags and inscriptions of “NS-Zone”, a reference to the Nazi era, daubed onto walls outside the city centre.

“We see that a lot,” said the Zwickau native, who was one of the organisers of the demonstrations against the far right early this year.

Banitz believes the AfD’s rise is fuelled by more than just protest votes.

The party’s “radical language, its way of thinking” now has “an acceptance” among the public, he said, helped by the fact that conservatives from the centre-right CDU party in Saxony have adopted some of their populist stances.

“I think most of the people who vote for the AfD want exactly what the programme says,” he added.

The AfD has found fertile ground in a city with an active right-wing extremist scene, Banitz said. It was in Zwickau that the three members of the NSU neo-Nazi cell, who murdered nine people of immigrant origin between 2000 and 2007, hid from the police for years.

Wolfgang Wetzel, a Zwickau city councillor from the Green party, said many locals felt overwhelmed in an increasingly complex world.

And in a region that has lived through two consecutive authoritarian regimes, Nazism and then communist East Germany, there is a resurgence of “nostalgia for the simplicity of dictatorship, where you don’t have to make decisions,” which benefits the far right, Wetzel said.



– ‘Uncertainty’ –



But the AfD rejects those interpretations.

“I think people simply don’t want to be deceived anymore,” said Jonas Duenzel, a candidate for the AfD in the Saxony election, where polls suggest the party is neck-and-neck with the CDU.

The 30-year-old former insurance salesman took aim at the conservatives who he said had co-opted AfD calls for tougher border controls and asylum policies, but done nothing to make that happen during their five years in power.

If people vote for the AfD, “it’s not because they’re turning away from democracy”, as Saxony prime minister Michael Kretschmer from the CDU has claimed, but because “they have a problem with Mr Kretschmer”, he said.

The increased populist sentiment has worried Volkswagen, which produces all-electric vehicles at a large plant in Zwickau. The AfD regularly rails against the push towards zero-emissions driving, dismissing it as “a fairy tale”.

“The discussions about the future of electric mobility create uncertainty” for the roughly 10,000 workers at the Zwickau plant, said Christian Sommer, VW’s head of corporate communications in Saxony.

“And there is indeed a fear,” he told AFP, “that these jobs could be threatened if a right-wing populist-conservative government were to emerge from the elections.”



Far right poised for gains at key German regional polls


By AFP
August 28, 2024

The far-right AfD is unlikely to come to power, but the result would still be humiliating for Scholz's Social Democrats - Copyright JIJI Press/AFP STR
Femke COLBORNE

Voters in two former East German states will go to the polls Sunday in what could be a bad night for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government, with the far-right AfD expected to make big gains.

The elections in Thuringia and Saxony come just a week after three people were stabbed to death in the western city of Solingen, allegedly by a Syrian asylum seeker, in an attack that has shocked Germany and fuelled a bitter debate about immigration.

Opinion polls have the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) as the biggest party in Thuringia on around 30 percent, while in Saxony it is running neck-and-neck for first place with the conservative CDU.

The AfD is unlikely to come to power in either state, even if it wins, as other parties have ruled out collaborating with it to form a majority.

But the result would still be a humiliating slapdown for Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) and the other parties in his governing coalition, the Greens and the liberal FDP, as they look ahead to Germany’s national election next year.

In both states, Scholz’s SPD is polling at around six percent.

A third former East German state, Brandenburg, is also due to hold an election later in September, with the AfD also leading there on around 24 percent.

The picture in each state is slightly different but “in any case, it is clear that the AfD will unite a very strong number of votes behind it”, Marianne Kneuer, a professor of politics at the Dresden University of Technology (TU Dresden), told AFP.

Besides causing a headache for Scholz’s coalition, the election could also have international implications if it gives a boost to parties that oppose continued support for Ukraine.



– ‘Dissatisfied protest voters’ –



Created in 2013 as an anti-euro group before morphing into an anti-immigration party, the AfD has enjoyed a resurgence over the past 12 months as Germany struggles with a rise in migration and a stumbling economy.

The AfD has also capitalised on dissatisfaction with the three-way coalition government in Berlin that has been plagued by disagreements and stalemate, most recently a protracted dispute over the 2025 budget.

In June’s EU Parliament elections, the party scored a record 15.9 percent overall and did especially well in eastern Germany, where it emerged as the biggest force.

The AfD has also notched up several local successes including its first city mayor, but a victory in Thuringia or Saxony on Sunday would be the first time it has won a state election.

The AfD is especially strong in the former communist East Germany partly “because it has a core of voters there who can identify with its nationalist and authoritarian positions”, according to Kneuer.

But the party’s popularity there can also be put down to “a large proportion of dissatisfied protest voters who turn to the AFD because they don’t want to vote for any other party”, she said.

Saxony is the most populous former East German state, with around four million inhabitants and several large cities including Leipzig, Dresden and Chemnitz.

Thuringia, which has a population of around two million and whose biggest city is Erfurt, is the only state to currently have a leader, Bodo Ramelow, from the far-left Die Linke party.



– ‘The right party’ –



After struggling economically for years after reunification, eastern Germany has recently seen higher growth than western Germany and wage increases have also been higher.

But “despite these positive economic developments, differences and injustices persist (between east and west)”, according to Carsten Schneider, the government’s commissioner for East German affairs.

Stefan Angelov, 35, a security guard from Jena, the second-largest city in Thuringia, said the AfD was “the right party” to vote for, “especially after the attack in Solingen”.

“Open borders, anyone can come in… with who-knows-what in their hands,” said Angelov, who is originally from Bulgaria but has been living in Jena for 10 years.

BSW, a new party formed by popular left-wing politician Sahra Wagenknecht after she defected from the Die Linke, is also polling well in all three states.

BSW has enjoyed a swell of support for its stance against weapons deliveries to Ukraine and won six percent in June’s EU elections.

“It is possible that BSW could become an important factor in forming a coalition in Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony,” Kneuer said.



Read more: https://www.digitaljournal.com/world/far-right-poised-for-gains-at-key-german-regional-polls/article#ixzz8kHR2w2E9

Belarus: Activist fights to stop extradition from Serbia

Elena Doronina

DW

August 28, 2024

Andrey Gnyot is fighting extradition from Serbia to Belarus, where he fears political persecution. Accused of tax evasion by Minsk, the Belarusian activist insists his case is politically motivated.

Filmmaker and activist Andrey Gnyot says he will suffer violence and torture in Belarus

Image: privat

Yet again, a court in the Serbian capital Belgrade will determine Andrey Gnyot's fate — it is his last hope. Judges in Gnyot's case have been weighing his appeal of a prior Serbian ruling that would see the Belarus activist extradited to Minsk. He has spent most of the last 10 months in a Serbian jail.

According to court documents, Belarus authorities want Gnyot to answer accusations of tax evasion. But Gnyot's lawyers say he is being persecuted because of his past political activities against dictator Alexander Lukashenko. Gnyot joined numerous protests calling out Lukashenko for election fraud in the summer of 2020.
Detained in Serbia on an INTERPOL warrant

Andrey Gnyot is a director, journalist and activist, he makes TV ads and music videos. He has lived in Thailand since fleeing Belarus. He was arrested on October 30, 2023, when he arrived in Belgrade from Bangkok.

"That was already my second trip, I was in Serbia to film for a short time in August. I was arrested at passport control, then I was taken to the police and informed that I was wanted on an INTERPOL warrant — at the request of Belarus' INTERPOL office," Gnyot told DW.

It was then that he discovered authorities in Belarus had charged him with having withheld roughly €300,000 ($367,000) in taxes. Gnyot says the charges against him are politically motivated. After his arrest, Gnyot announced that he had been one of the founders of the Belarus Free Association of Athletes SOS-BY, an initiative that was created after the country's controversial 2020 presidential election.

The group was able to influence a decision to strip Belarus of hosting the 2021 Ice Hockey World Championships, it was also instrumental in cutting funds to Belarus' National Olympic Committee. In 2022, Belarus authorities declared SOS-BY an "extremist organization."

Alexander Lukashenko (right) has ruled Belarus with an iron first since taking power three decades agoImage: Belarus' Presidential Press Office/AP/picture alliance

Jail, house arrest and electronic ankle bracelet

Andrey Gnyot was immediately taken to Belgrade's main prison after his arrest. After about a month-and-a-half of detention, Serbian authorities decided Gnyot could be extradited to Belarus. "In mid-December 2023, I received a piece of paper upon which was written that Serbia considered my extradition possible and saw no reason not to transfer me," he said. "Naturally, that came as a shock to me."

Yet in March 2024, an appeals court suspended the decision, citing procedural errors: The court found that not all aspects of the case had been clarified, noting, too, that Gnyot had not been given the opportunity to testify. The case went back to court for a retrial.

A new appeal and lots of nervous waiting

On June 6, 2024, Gnyot was released from prison and put under house arrest. Friends had rented him an apartment in Belgrade before the decision was finalized. "They gave me an electronic ankle bracelet. I am allowed to leave the apartment once a day… for exactly one hour."

Then the hearings began once again — and when they were concluded in June 2024, Serbia's Supreme Court ruled in favor of extradition. Gnyot and his legal team again filed an appeal. An appeals court has been considering that motion since August 27.

"If the appeals court doesn't rule in my favor the minister of justice will have to sign the extradition papers. Then Serbia will send me to my death," says Gnyot. "Violence, torture and the destruction of my physical and psychological health await me in Belarus. I have a tough fight ahead of me… to be able to leave this apartment and go home, and not be destroyed by a dictatorship."

International support for Andrey Gnyot

The International Criminal Police Organization INTERPOL blocked access to Gnyot's personal data in February 2024. In July 2024, INTERPOL informed a European Union (EU) delegation in Serbia that there was no reason to put out an international arrest warrant for Gnyot.

Prior to court hearings in Belgrade, Marie Struthers, regional director of Amnesty International's (AI) Eastern Europe and Central Asia sections, said, "In light of ongoing human rights abuses in Belarus" and the clear threat posed to Andrey Gnyot, it is important that Serbian officials "immediately end the extradition process." No one who has participated in anti-government activities "should be handed over to Alexander Lukashenko's regime under any circumstances."

The Belgrade Center for Human Rights (BCHR) is pessimistic, noting that Serbia has repeatedly abused the rights of individuals when it comes to extradition.

"What previous practice has shown is that courts very often explicitly state in their decisions that they are not competent to decide whether a person is threatened with expulsion or torture in their country," as BCHR's Petar Vidosavljevic explained to DW. Judges say, "that it is either within the competence of the asylum office, or the asylum procedure, or it is within the competence of the Ministry of Justice, because the minister of justice can stop extradition if it is related to political crime."

Demonstrations in support of Andrey Gnyot have now been held in some 20 different countries. Hundreds of artists have also signed an open letter penned by the Belarus Independent Film Academy (BIFA); including Nobel Literature Laureate Svetlana Alexievich; the president of the European Film Academy, Juliette Binoche; directors Wim Wenders and Yorgos Lanthimos, stage director Kirill Serebrennikov; and actors Sandra Hüller and Margarethe von Trotta.

Belarusian activist calls on EU leaders to investigate Lukashenko  04:45

Sanja Kljajic in Belgrade contributed to this article which was originally published in Russian

Brazil judge, Musk standoff intensifies as Starlink assets frozen

Brasília (AFP) – A standoff between a Brazilian Supreme Court judge and Elon Musk intensified Thursday as the billionaire's Starlink company said its assets had been frozen in the country amid a feud over the fate of his social media platform X.


Issued on: 30/08/2024 - 

Brazil Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes ordered Elon Musk to name a new legal representative in the country or face X being shut down there © EVARISTO SA / AFP/File

The episode began Wednesday when Brazilian Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes threatened to suspend X, formerly known as Twitter, unless Musk named a new legal representative for the company in Brazil within 24 hours.

Then on Thursday, Musk's satellite internet operator, Starlink, said it had received an order from Moraes that "freezes Starlink's finances and prevents Starlink from conducting financial transactions" in the country.

Starlink, which operates in Brazil, particularly in the Amazon, alleged that the order "is based on an unfounded determination that Starlink should be responsible for the fines levied --unconstitutionally -- against X."

The company said on X it intended "to address the matter legally."

Moraes, who also presides over Brazil's Superior Electoral Tribunal, has spearheaded a battle against disinformation in South America's largest nation, clashing with Musk along the way.

Several of the X accounts he ordered suspended belonged to supporters of Brazil's former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, who tried to discredit the voting system in the 2022 election, which he lost.

Moraes's Wednesday decision escalated the months-long feud.

Already in April, Moraes ordered an investigation of Musk, accusing him of reactivating some of the banned accounts.

Musk and other critics accuse Moraes of stifling free speech.

In the order made public Wednesday, Moraes told Musk "to appoint the company's new legal representative in Brazil within 24 hours."

"In the event of non-compliance with the order, the decision provides for the suspension of the social network's activities in Brazil," it said.

Following the order, the hashtag "O Twitter morreu" ("Twitter is dead") went viral in Brazil, and leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva posted a message on the platform with the addresses of his other social media accounts.

Musk responded to the order by accusing Moraes of having "repeatedly broken the laws he has sworn to uphold."

He also posted a sarcastic message and doctored photo depicting Moraes as "Voldemort and a Sith Lord," an allusion to the villains of the Harry Potter and Star Wars sagas.

Musk shut X's business operations in Brazil earlier this month, claiming Moraes had threatened the company's previous legal representative with arrest to force compliance with "censorship orders."

Brazilian users have meanwhile continued to be able to access the social media site.

Musk is also the subject of a separate judicial investigation into an alleged scheme where public money was used to orchestrate disinformation campaigns in favor of Bolsonaro and those close to him.

© 2024 AFP

Brazil may soon shut down Musk's X after deadline expires

There has been a public feud for months between a Brazilian Supreme Court judge and X’s owner Elon Musk over content moderation on the social media platform. Now X may be suspended as it failed to meet a court deadline.

Brazil is one of X's largest, most coveted markets

Image: Andre M. Chang/ZUMA Press Wire/picture alliance



Brazil on Thursday appeared set to suspend the services of the social media platform X, formerly Twitter, after the company did not name its legal representative for the South American country by 8:07 p.m. local time (2307 GMT) as ordered by the Brazilian Supreme Court.

Brazilian law requires all internet companies to have a legal representative in the country.

This ensures someone can be notified of legal decisions and is qualified to take any requisite action.

But earlier this month, X removed its legal representative from Brazil on the grounds that Brazilian Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes had threatened her with arrest.

The judge had given X time until Thursday evening to appoint a new representative, or face a shutdown until his order is met.

Does Elon Musk want to make X the new TikTok   12:36

What's the issue between Brazil and X?

The social media site's billionaire owner Elon Musk responded to the judge's order with insults, including calling de Moraes a "tyrant" and "a dictator."

In a post on X, Musk complained that Moraes "is an outright criminal of the worst kind, masquerading as a judge."

At issue in the intensifying dispute is whether Moraes can order X to block certain accounts accused of spreading lies and distortions, a request Musk has denounced as censorship.

Most of the accounts ordered blocked are run by backers of far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro, some of which deny he lost his 2022 reelection bid.

Musk challenged that decision and said he would reactivate accounts on X, accusing Moraes of stifling free speech.

The announcement prompted Moraes to open an inquiry into the billionaire in early April over the dissemination of fake news. Moraes also launched a separate investigation into the billionaire for alleged obstruction.

Brazil freezes Starlink's finances

On Thursday, Starlink, Musk's satellite internet operator, said it had received an order from Moraes that "freezes Starlink's finances and prevents Starlink from conducting financial transactions" in Brazil.

The company alleged that the order "is based on an unfounded determination that Starlink should be responsible for the fines levied — unconstitutionally — against X."

Starlink said it intended "to address the matter legally."

Meanwhile, after the deadline for the naming of a legal representative expired, X released a statement saying it expects its service to be shutdown in Brazil.

"Unlike other social media and technology platforms, we will not comply in secret with illegal orders," it said. "To our users in Brazil and around the world, X remains committed to protecting your freedom of speech."

X, formerly known as Twitter, is widely used in Brazil. The platform is an important means of communication for politicians in particular.

sri/wd (AFP, AP, Reuters)

How Middle East authoritarians benefit from Gaza conflict

Cathrin Schaer

DW

August 28, 2024

The Gaza conflict has allowed authoritarian leaders in the region to polish their images, defend Arab honor, and use protests against Israel to push foreign NGOs out of the country and crack down on their opposition.

Over the weekend Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel and Israel's military launched around 100 jets to strike at targets in Lebanon

Image: Kawnat Haju/AFP/Getty Images

Over the weekend, after a significant exchange of missiles between Israel and the Hezbollah group, Egyptian leader Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi spoke to a top US general, warning of the danger of any further escalation of the Gaza conflict.

The international community needs to "exert all efforts and intensify pressures to defuse tension and stop the state of escalation that threatens the security and stability of the entire region," el-Sissi said, according to a statement published by his office after a visit from the US General Charles Quinton Brown a few hours after the Israeli military and the armed wing of Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, traded fire.

Alongside Americans and Qataris, Egyptians are part of the team of mediators trying to negotiate a cease-fire in Gaza, where an Israeli military campaign has been ongoing since the October 7 attacks by the Gaza-based Hamas militant group.

Such statesmanlike words help el-Sissi polish his image, says Hossam el-Hamalawy, an Egyptian researcher and activist now living in Germany who writes a regular newsletter on Egyptian politics. "And the war in Gaza basically has helped consolidate his regime even further," el-Hamalawy told DW.

During almost 11 months of the Gaza conflict, the idea that Egypt — the Middle East's most populous country, with around 111 million people — is "too big to fail" has become more compelling.

Fighting has meant important income earners for Egypt, like tourism and shipping through the Suez Canal, have been throttled. This has worsened a crippling economic crisis in Egypt widely considered to be the result of years of financial mismanagement by el-Sissi.

"So the Europeans, Americans, the International Monetary Fund and other international powers are basically all rushing to bail [Egypt] out," el-Hamalawy argues, referring to various recent loans and investment deals worth over $50 billion that have helped prevent the collapse of the Egyptian pound.

"Sissi goes to the West and says that 'I'm fighting terrorism, I'm essential for regional stability.' But at the same time he's cracking down on internal dissent," el-Hamalawy continues. "He's simply a hypocrite. Among those arrested recently was Ashraf Omar, a cartoonist, and because of his cartoons, he's now being held on terror charges — as are most of the other Egyptian journalists and media workers behind bars."

El-Sissi "seems to be hoping that popular anger will be focused on Israel and, to a lesser extent, the US for backing its actions in Gaza," agreed researchers from UK-based think-tank, Chatham House, in a recent article.

How to profit in a crisis

Egypt's authoritarian ruler is not the only leader in the region hoping for this.

Over the last two years, governments in Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Morocco "have deftly managed to tap the veins of several global crises — including wars, migration and rising populism in Europe — to revive their faltering rule," Alia Brahimi and Karim Mezran, both senior fellows at the Atlantic Council think tank, wrote in a July post for the organization.

The researchers mostly looked at the impacts of the war in Ukraine and the rise of far-right parties in Europe that have prioritized migration policies over human rights by funding governments who say they can police migration. But the Gaza conflict has also had an effect.

It has allowed Algeria to use its temporary seat on the United Nations Security Council, to "showcase its Arab nationalist credentials, as well as its historic and principled anti-colonial position," Brahimi and Mezran said. At the same time, penalties against Algerian pro-democracy activists are getting tougher and human rights organizations are being banned in the country, they added.

During the regional crisis, President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi has managed to use the idea that Egypt is 'too big to fail' to his country's advantage

Image: Amr Nabil/AP Photo/picture alliance

Gaza as a "distraction"

In Tunisia, activists say their increasingly authoritarian head of state, Kais Saied, has been using a pro-Palestinian stance to "distract" locals from the country's economic crisis and a crackdown on the Tunisian opposition.

Gaza is a constant in the president's speeches and on social media, Tunisian writer Tharwa Boulifi stated in a March op-ed for The New Arab. "Since October, activists protesting for the release of political prisoners have become irrelevant to local media, which predominantly focuses on pro-Palestine protests," she recounted.

A draft law, presented last October, that could potentially see civil society and non-governmental organizations in Tunisia suspended as "foreign agents," is also being sold by politicians as a reaction to the Gaza conflict. The law explicitly forbids any Tunisian body from a relationship with the Israeli state. But at the same time, activists point out, it establishes conditions where the Tunisian government could shut down human rights organizations by simply accessing foreign funding.

Difficult balancing act

Despite the gains some authoritarians may have seen as a result of the Gaza conflict, it is also often pointed out the issue can be a double-edged sword. The Palestinian cause is close to the hearts of the majority of the Middle East's ordinary citizens, even if they don't live in democracies.

For some countries, this is now resulting in a difficult balancing act. There have been plenty of accusations from citizens that, despite paying lip service to the Palestinian cause, most Arab leaders have not done enough to bring about a cease-fire.

Israel-Hamas conflict: Civilians 'paying the price'  02:25

Marc Lynch, a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, doesn't believe things can go on this way.

Arab leaders "are among the world's most experienced practitioners of realpolitik, and they have a record of ignoring their people's preferences," he wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine in April. "They often dress up even the most nakedly cynical and self-interested moves as serving the interests of Palestinians or defending Arab honor."

But they may soon find that drawbacks of conflict in Gaza outweigh any advantages, Lynch argues.

"Staying in power … means not only preventing obviously regime-threatening mass protests but also being attentive to potential sources of discontent," Lynch wrote. "With almost every Arab country outside the Gulf suffering extreme economic problems, and accordingly exercising maximum repression, regimes have to be even more careful in responding to issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict."