Saturday, November 16, 2024

PAKISTAN

Protecting Chinese investments
November 14, 2024 
DAWN


THERE are two critical dialogues taking place between the governments of China and Pakistan. One of them concerns the rescheduling of payables owed to Chinese project sponsors by the government of Pakistan. The second revolves around protection of Chinese investments and nationals in Pakistan in the wake of deadly attacks.

There is now a string of statements from Chinese officials, going back a few years in time, stressing how important it is for them that the state of security for their nationals living and working in Pakistan be improved. Recently, we had a joint statement released on Oct 15, after the visit to Islamabad by Chinese premier Li Qiang for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which spoke of the need to “jointly create a safe environment” for Chinese investments and personnel in Pakistan.

That statement came couched heavily in diplomatic language. The security concerns expressed by the joint statement were mild compared to other statements, such as a vexed retort by the Chinese ambassador to Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar’s off-the-cuff remark that Pakistan is unique to the Chinese in that they are willing to invest here despite the security risks their personnel face, or earlier statements following the March attack on Chinese workers on the Dasu hydropower project.

However, the matter is far more serious. On Monday, for example, two things happened arou­­nd this question. One was a routine press conference by the Chinese foreign ministry in which the Reuters correspondent asked specifically about “recent attacks on Chinese nationals in Pakistan” and received another diplomatic answer with no specifics, using language like ‘China will continue to support Pakistan in fighting terrorism’.

The Pakistani authorities have done the right thing to not grant the request for an expanded Chinese security presence in the country.

But on the same day, almost at the same time, Pakistani officials in the city of Karachi hosted a press conference in which they provided minute details of the terror attack on Oct 6 outside Karachi airport that took the lives of two Chinese nationals and one Pakistani citizen.

The level of detail shared during that presser on the sequence of events that led up to the actual attack was impressive. Through the presser, hosted by the IG Police and the home minister of Sindh, the authorities seemed to be conveying an important message: we are getting to the bottom of this, our investigation is producing results.

The next day, Reuters put out a story saying “Beijing is pushing Pakistan to allow its own security staff to provide protection to thousands of Chinese citizens” working in Pakistan. The push by Beijing came after the October attack, which the story said has “angered China, which has pushed Pakistan to begin formal negotiations for a joint security management system”. The story was sourced to “five Pakistani security and government sources with direct knowledge of the previously unreported negotiations”.

The following day, another article in the Financial Times, written from Taipei and Islamabad, carried the same message. Beijing was unhappy with the security situation in Pakistan and was demanding a greater role for itself in securing its nationals from attacks. The demand to allow Chinese authorities to protect Chinese investments and nationals was originating from within the managements of the enterprises already operating in Pakistan, according to the FT article, which cited a number of Chinese executives in Pakistan.

To some extent, the request had been granted. In some cases, cited by the article, Chinese security engineers were already on the ground to set up the security plan, hire local guards, run background checks, and “gather intelligence”. But pressure is apparently mounting to grow this role.

A subtle change in approach seems to have come about in how the Chinese are dealing with Pakistan when stressing their security concerns for their investments and personnel here. In previous cases, official Chinese announcements made their displeasure with the security situation explicit, and generally downplayed other aspects of the relationship. But now that equation has been reversed.

The joint statement issued after the last SCO, for example, talks at great length about “consolidating” and “deepening” and “promoting practical cooperation”. It lists some areas where this cooperation will be deepened, such as the ML-1 railway upgradation and Karakoram Highway realignment, but points to issues to be worked out in the financing arrangements for these critical projects. And the language containing the security concerns is muted and couched in the language of overall cooperation. The same happened on Monday, when Beijing was asked specifically about the security concerns and responded by talking more about cooperation.

Privately, though, things are different, as most recently evidenced by the Reuters and FT articles, but also by numerous other off-the-record interactions that people have had with Pakistani and Chinese officials. Privately, the Chinese are raising the deteriorating security situation repeatedly, and are demanding a more intrusive role for themselves in safeguarding this security.

This presents a very slippery slope. Where would such a role end? Would Chinese guards be used? Will they be armed? Under what conditions will they be authorised to use lethal force? Will they have the power to conduct surveillance, “gather intelligence”, flag suspects, apprehend people, detain them, question them, and so on? More importantly, Chinese security guards means more Chinese personnel in the country, which means more targets for the militants. Who will guard the guards?

The Pakistani authorities have done the right thing to not grant the request for an expanded Chinese security presence in the country. But for their part, it seems the Chinese are finding out that Pakistani authorities have a performative approach to solving problems. They say things, do things, and look busy, all the while letting the problem in question fester while trying to keep it out of sight.

This is how economic problems have been allowed to fester, problems like inadequate government resources, liquidity constraints in the foreign exchange markets, low savings to finance investment with, and so on. But now the time has come to solve the security problem. And the performative approach is reaching its limits.

The writer is a business and economy journalist.

khurram.husain@gmail.com

X: @khurramhusain

Published in Dawn, November 14th, 2024
Spate of child poisoning deaths sparks S.Africa xenophobia

By AFP
November 15, 2024

Copyright AFP/File -
Clément VARANGES

The deaths of 23 children in Johannesburg this year from suspected food poisoning has ignited anger in South Africa against foreign nationals who run small corner shops known as spazas.

There is still police tape around a now-closed spaza shop in Soweto’s Naledi area that allegedly sold snacks to six young children who died from poisoning in October.

The tragedy angered local residents who attacked and looted the spaza and hounded out the shopkeeper, reportedly an Ethiopian national. Even the person who was renting out the premises fled in fear.

While an autopsy revealed that a pesticide had caused the deaths, a link to the shop has not been officially established.

As similar cases were reported in other areas, the outcry mounted, leading authorities to launch raids on foreign-run spazas to check compliance with laws and regulations.

Several have been forced to shut and the shopkeepers — generally from Ethiopia, India, Pakistan or Somali — have fled.

Six spazas were closed at Olievenhoutbosch outside the capital Pretoria last week for irregularities, municipal council official Sarah Mabotsa said.

“They’re selling expired food, they’re selling skin products, they’re selling meat, everything is in one shop,” she charged.

– ‘Operation Dudula’ –

As the continent’s most industrialised economy, South Africa is a prime destination for people seeking work even though its own unemployment rate is around 32 percent.

The competition has triggered mistrust and even violence.

If authorities don’t step in, a xenophobic vigilante group known as Operation Dudula — which means “push back” in Zulu — often does.

In Naledi, efforts by Dudula recently saw the foreign shopkeepers at six spazas replaced with South African nationals.

“We have chased the foreigners. Foreigners were running the shop before and we kicked them out,” one of the new shopkeepers, Maphoka Mohalanwani, said proudly.

The recent spate of food poisonings is without doubt “related to the foreigners”, the 54-year-old said.

“When our kids eat chips from the streets, they do not die… they are dying because of their poison,” said Mohalanwani.

The former cashier was selected for the job by Operation Dudula, which awards some finance to South Africans to take over from foreign nationals running spaza shops.

“Some stores were closed down by officials because they don’t respect the laws of this country,” the head of Operation Dudula, Zandile Dabula, told AFP.

And for those that reopened, “we went back to go and make sure that they closed again,” she said.

Even politicians have made outright calls for all spaza shops to be run by South Africans.

– Eliminating competition –

The tragic wave of deaths of the young children has gripped South Africa, with speculation running wild in the absence of proven facts about what really caused their deaths.

Some people believe that foreigners are deliberately setting out to poison South Africans; others say the outcry is a manufactured ploy to get the spazas and their profits back into the hands of locals.

“We don’t know what is causing these things (cases),” said Somali national Zachariah Salah at one spaza in White City, Soweto.

It was not even clear if the claims of poisonings were genuine or not, he said. Either way, “it’s tragic for us.”

Loren Landau, who studies migration at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, said attacks against foreign-owned shops were “really about eliminating competition for business.

“If you try to shut down South African businesses, people would protest,” he said. But “you can go after a foreigner, no one will protest.”

Back in White City, one of the spazas that shut down in the initial flare of anger a few weeks back has reopened, to the relief of locals who rely on their corner shops.

“When it was shut, I had to go to … malls that are very far,” said Nomsa Skosan, 63, who was browsing the aisles of cereal, frozen food and household items.

“If what they sell in these stores is as bad as they say, why loot them?”
PAKISTAN

Mothers in prison
 November 16, 2024 
DAWN




INCARCERATED mothers constitute a rapidly increasing segment of the prison population in Punjab. According to data released by Punjab Prisons, as of last month, the total number of female prisoners stood at 1,218. Of these, 137 are mothers with children and 104 are under trial. The total number of children living in prisons with jailed mothers is 159, including 68 boys and 91 girls.


In 2022, the total number of mothers in Punjab’s prisons was 83. This data shows an increase of 65 per cent in their population across the province from 2022 to 2024.

Children living with incarcerated parents, as well as those left behind when a parent is imprisoned, are among the most at-risk populations. They face social stigma and isolation, with a long-lasting impact on their intellectual growth and emotional development. Despite these challenges, they are not recognised as a vulnerable group and no special initiatives are being initiated to protect their best interests.

Existing prison facilities across Pakistan were designed primarily for male prisoners during the colonial era. However, the number of female prisoners has increased over the years. Prison facilities do not cater to the gender-specific needs of female prisoners, such as pregnancy. Additionally, women are the primary caregivers of children in Pakistani society. Prisons lack the necessary capacity and mechanisms for the adequate educational, health, and psychological development of children.


The primary legislation governing the Punjab prison system includes the Prisons Act of 1894, the Prisoners Act of 1900, and the Pakistan Prison Rules of 1978. The PPR contains specific provisions for the management of female prisoners. Unfortunately, these laws are rooted in colonial-era practices and a retributive approach, lacking sufficient focus on the rehabilitation and welfare of incarcerated mothers and their innocent children. The laws are not in line with Pakistan’s international legal obligations.

The ‘UN Rules for the Treatment of Women Prisoners and Non-custodial Measures for Women Offenders’, also called the ‘Bangkok Rules’ are the universally recognised standards regarding the treatment of female offenders and prisoners, and were adopted by the UN in 2010.

Rule 326 of the PRP allows women prisoners to keep their children with them in jail until they turn six. However, as per Rule 52 (1) of the Bangkok Rules, the decision regarding when a child is to be separated from its mother is to be based on individual assessments and the child’s best interests.

The UN Convention on the Rights of the Child was ratified by Pakistan in 1990. Article 3(1) of the convention provides that “in all actions concerning children, whether undertaken by public or private social welfare institutions, courts of law, administrative authorities or legislative bodies, the best interests of the child shall be a primary consideration”.


Children living with parents in jail face isolation.

The Committee on the Rights of the Child in 2011 emphasised that in “sentencing parent(s) and primary caregivers, non-custodial sentences should … be issued, in lieu of custodial sentences, including in the pre-trial and trial phase. Alternatives to detention should be made available … with full consideration of the likely impacts of different sentences on the best interests of the affected child(ren)”.


Therefore, courts should collect data on the number of dependent children of parents involved in legal conflicts and then take a balanced view, weighing the best interests of the affected children against the severity of the parent’s offence.

Additionally, it is crucial to ensure that “non-custodial sentences for pregnant women and women with dependent children shall be preferred” for non- violent crimes, in line with Rule 64 of the Bangkok Rules.


Punjab has an effective Probation and Parole Service. Several strategic initiatives have been taken to enhance the effectiveness of the service. This includes the Offender Management Information System to centralise and streamline the tracking of offender information. Release on bail at the pre-trial stage along with probation and parole should be utilised as alternatives to imprisonment. The Punjab Legal Aid Agency has also been established under the Punjab Legal Aid Act, 2018. However, it is not effectively working for the protection of the rights of prisoners.

Punjab should establish a provincial hu­­man rights commission similar to Sindh’s, which is empowered by the Sindh Pro­tection of Human Rights Act, 2011. The Sindh Human Rights Commission raises awareness, inspects jails, recommends improvements, and investigates human rights violations by public servants. A similar body in Punjab would enhance prison conditions.

The writer is a barrister of Lincoln’s Inn and an advocate of the high courts of Pakistan.

Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2024
Cyber sovereignty


Sanaullah Abbasi
DAWN
November 16, 2024 

FOR a modern society, the intersection of rights and governance in the digital sphere should become an area of pressing concern.

As scholar Evgeny Morozov observes, “the internet is a reflection of humanity with all its beauty and ugliness”.

The statement above aptly captures the complexities of Pakistan’s evolving digital environment, which hosts millions of people who participate in substantive online engagement. The country’s internet penetration is projected to reach approximately 111m users this year. While this growth suggests immense technological advancement and connectivity, it also presents significant challenges, which require an in-depth analysis.

An assessment of the dynamics of Pakistan’s internet usage reveals a diverse and multifaceted online experience: Facebook leads with 44.5m users; it is followed by YouTube with 71.7m, TikTok has 54.38m and Instagram has 17.3m. Despite such vibrant and large-scale engagement on social media platforms, the digital landscape faces a number of challenges. Amid declining global internet freedom, Freedom on the Net 2024, a report from the Washington-based, nonprofit Freedom House, classifies Pakistan as ‘not free’ with a pathetic score of 27 out of 100.

The scale of online harassment — there are more than 3,000 reported cases that predominantly involve women — exacerbates the situation and raises concern about safety and equity in cyberspace. Moreover, data security and privacy breaches have resulted in a climate of distrust — over 20 documented infringements have adversely affected more than 1m people.


The rapid evolution of cyberspace demands a new social contract.

The economic ramifications of such challenges are considerable. The Pakistan Telecommunication Authority estimates show that daily internet outages lead to approximately Rs3.5 billion worth of losses; annually, these disruptions account for about 2pc of the national GDP, which means that a total of Rs540bn are lost. The e-commerce sector is particularly hard hit, as it suffers daily damages to the tune of Rs750m. These economic implications underscore the urgent need for improved infrastructure and regulatory oversight in the country’s internet governance.

In response to this spate of problems, the government has introduced regulatory frameworks aimed at mitigating online misconduct and protecting digital rights. A preliminary step towards securing digital commerce was the Electronic Transaction Act, 2002, and then the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act, 2016, which criminalised the various violations that plague the integrity of the digital space. But the Punjab Defamation Act, 2024, is viewed as a draconian law that seeks to curb free speech.While the Cybercrime Investigating Agency is seen as a worthy instrument of law enforcement in the country, its long-term value remains uncertain.

In the broader context of rights, while the 18th century criminologist Cesare Beccaria stressed on the primacy of dignity, life and liberty over property rights, Sigmund Freud’s assertion that “unexpressed emotions will never die; they are buried alive and will come forth later in uglier ways”, is particularly relevant to Pakistan, where unaddressed grievances manifest as anti-social disorders that require sustained treatment.

However, the challenges faced by Pakistan resonate with the international commentary on cyber rights and governance. International organisations, inc­luding the United Nations, have highlighted the need for regulatory frameworks to monitor the development and use of artificial intelligence, especially because so­­c­ial and technological revolutions have always coexisted. Yuval Noah Harari, in A Brief History of Tomorrow, warns of the existential threats posed by unregulated AI, particularly in authoritarian regimes, and underscores the necessity to prioritise human rights and dignity.

The rapid evolution of cyberspace demands the establishment of a new social contract, which is nationally and internationally grounded in specialised cyber laws on AI, currency and governance mechanisms to criminalise rights violations.

Finally, navigating the complexities of contemporary digital interactions demands that Pakistan addresses these challenges, and also works towards creating a framework that empowers its citizens, granting them the freedom to safely engage with internet rights for innovation, expression and opportunity. These internet rights have given birth to a scientific and societal revolution.

The writer has a PhD degree in law. He is former DG, FIA and currently a faculty member at SZABUL Law University, Karachi.

Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2024
PAKISTAN

Unrestricted freedom of speech contributing to degradation of moral values in societies: army chief

Dawn.com 
November 15, 2024 


Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Asim Munir speaking in Islamabad on Nov 15, 2024. — @PTVNewsOfficial on X


Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Asim Munir on Friday addressed the impact of technology in spreading false information, reiterating that unrestricted freedom of speech was “contributing to the degradation of moral values in all societies.”

Gen Munir was speaking on the topic of “Pakistan’s role in peace and stability” at the Margalla Dialogue 2024 in Islamabad, organised by the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI).

According to a statement issued by state broadcaster PTV on X, the army chief said, “Unrestricted freedom of speech is leading to the degradation of moral values ​​in all societies.”


He said that while technology had played an important role in the dissemination of information, “the spread of misleading and incorrect knowledge was a major challenge”.

“Without comprehensive laws and regulations, false and misleading information, and hate speech will continue to destabilise political and social structures,” he said.

Today’s statement was the latest in a long line of warnings from the army chief and the military about the dangers of misinformation, that particularly spreads through social media posts.

Over the past couple of years, social media campaigns against the army have escalated, reflecting broader tensions within the country’s political and social fabric. The government, often in tandem with the military, has responded with stringent measures aimed at controlling the narrative and stifling dissent.

These measures have led to numerous arrests and legal actions against journalists and social media users accused of spreading “negative propaganda” about the military and the state, resulting in restricted internet access and bans on platforms like X.

Previously, Gen Munir warned that social media was being exploited to spread anarchy and false information aimed at the armed forces, while the term ‘digital terrorism’ is now being used to describe the actions of online critics accused of spreading falsehoods.

In August, during an Independence Day speech, the army chief stressed the importance of investigating and verifying information so as not to cause consternation among the people.

He had said that while the Constitution allowed for freedom of speech, it also contained “clear limits to what constitutes free speech.”

“To the inimical forces, let it be clear; that regardless of the multilayered and multidimensional threats piled up against us we stand united and reassured. Traditional or non-traditional, dynamic or proactive, whatever form of warfare is applied against us, our retribution will be sharp and painful and we will certainly strike back,” he had said.

“For indeed, we know that freedom is not for free, it costs many great sons and daughters, and we are always ready for that. I have full faith and confidence that the people of Pakistan and its security forces will never relent and let anyone cast an evil eye on this great country.”

‘TTP home to all terrorist proxies worldwide’

During his speech, Gen Munir also talked about how violent non-state actors and state-sponsored terrorism had become major global challenges.

“Terrorism is a common challenge for all humanity globally, and Pakistan has an unwavering commitment to the fight against terrorism,” he said.

He also stated that a robust border management system had been implemented to secure Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan against Fitna al Khawarij, who he said was “home to all the terrorist organisations and proxies of the world”.

In July, the government, through an official notification, designated the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as Fitna al Khawarij, while mandating all institutions to use the term khariji (outcast) when referring to the perpetrators of terrorist attacks on Pakistan.

The country has lately witnessed a sharp uptick in the number of attacks targeting security forces, other law enforcement agencies, and security checkpoints, particularly in Balochistan and KP.

Attacks escalated after the TTP broke a fragile ceasefire agreement with the government in 2022 and vowed to target security forces.

Islamabad maintains that the TTP uses Afghan soil to launch attacks in Pakistan and has repeatedly asked Kabul to deny safe havens to the outlawed group and to hand over its leadership to Pakistan. Afghanistan has denied the allegations.

“Pakistan expects the Afghan Interim Government not to allow Afghan territory to be used for terrorism and to take strict measures in this regard,” Gen Munir reiterated today.














Army chief seeks stricter rules for social media


Baqir Sajjad Syed 
November 16, 2024 
DAWN

ISLAMABAD: Army Chief General Asim Munir on Friday observed that unrestricted freedom of speech was leading to the degradation of moral values in all societies.

In wide-ranging remarks at the Margalla Dialogue, hosted by the Islamabad Policy Research Institute, subjects such as India’s Hindutva ideology, occupied Kashmir, Pakistan’s role in peacekeeping missions, terrorism from Afghan soil, border management, freedom of speech, false information, etc all came up.

The army chief reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to remaining neutral in international conflicts and staying away from bloc politics while continuing its role in fostering global peace and stability.

Addressing the growing issue of fake news, he said, “While technology has played a pivotal role in the dissemination of information, the spread of misleading and incorrect information has become a significant challenge.”

Says country will stay away from bloc politics; speaks of TTP’s potential threat beyond Pakistan’s borders

“Without comprehensive laws and regulations, false and misleading information, along with hate speech, will continue to destabilise political and social structures,” Gen Munir stated, advocating for stricter regulation of social media and a reduction in online freedoms.

Interestingly, the session featuring Gen Munir’s remarks was held a day after the two-day conference officially concluded.

The audience comprised members of the diplomatic community, serving military officials, and representatives from Islamabad-based think tanks.

Non-alignment policy

The event served as a platform for the army chief to reiterate Pakistan’s long-standing policy of non-alignment, as he said, “We will not become part of any global conflict but will continue to play our role for peace and stability in the world.”

Pakistan’s policy of avoiding bloc politics has been a consistent part of its foreign policy. However, the timing of this renewed emphasis is significant, coinciding with Washington’s preparations for a transition following Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.

The escalating rivalry between the US and China remains the defining global competition of the current era, with profound implications for international alliances, economic systems, and strategic stability. This high-stakes contest is shaping the future of global governance and international order.

Gen Munir’s message was apparently addressed to both Washington and Beijing, emphasising Pakistan’s commitment to peace and neutrality.

However, notably absent from the publicly shared details of his speech was any mention of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

The army chief focused instead on Pakistan’s broader contributions to global peace and stability. He highlighted Pakistan’s significant role in the UN peacekeeping missions, noting that 235,000 Pakistanis have served in these missions, with 181 making the ultimate sacrifice.

In a pointed message to the West, particularly the United States, the army chief underscored that the extremist ideology espoused by India’s ruling junta is not only a threat to Pakistan but also poses risks to Indian-origin citizens in America, the UK, and Canada.

While speaking about India’s ongoing atrocities in occupied Jammu and Kashmir, Gen Munir described these actions as an extension of the Hindutva ideology.

“The resolution of the Kashmir dispute, in accordance with United Nations resolutions and the aspirations of the Kashmiri people, is inevitable,” he asserted.

Addressing the terrorism threat from Afghanistan, Gen Munir emphasised Pakistan’s expectation that the Taliban administration would prevent the use of Afghan territory for terrorist activities and take stringent measures to curb such threats.

“A comprehensive border management regime has been established to secure our western borders,” he stated, highlighting Pakistan’s efforts to prevent unauthorised cross-border movement.

He also warned about the potential for the banned TTP to evolve into a threat beyond Pakistan’s borders.

Referring to the proscribed group as Fitna al-Khawarij, he pointed out its connections to several international terrorist organisations and proxies.

Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2024





Mobile internet services suspended in certain areas of Balochistan to ‘ensure public safety’, says PTA


Published November 15, 2024 

The Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) on Friday announced that mobile internet services in certain parts of Balochistan have been suspended to “ensure public safety”.

Pakistan, particularly the Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces, has witnessed a sharp uptick in terrorism-related incidents over the past year.

At least 26 people were killed and 62 injured after a suicide blast ripped through a Quetta Railway Station on November 9, local authorities and hospital officials said.

On September 26, at least two policemen were among a dozen people injured by a bomb attack, which targeted a police vehicle in Quetta.

Officials said that unidentified miscreants had parked an explosives-laden motorcycle in the Bhosa Mandi area of Eastern Bypass. When a police vehicle reached the spot, an explosion was triggered, ostensibly using a remote-controlled device.

“The general public is hereby informed that, under the directives of authorised departments, mobile internet services have been temporarily suspended in certain areas of Balochistan,” Friday’s statement said.

The statement added that the step was taken “to ensure public safety given the security situation in these areas”.

It, however, did not specify the areas where mobile internet services have been suspended or provide details on the duration of the suspension.

To ensure security within the province, the Balochistan government decided to develop a provincial action plan to significantly enhance governance and security across the province.






Balochistan Chief Secretary Shakeel Qadir Khan on Wednesday briefed a high-level meeting, presided over by Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti, on the proposed plan.

The chief secretary said that a comprehensive strategy is being developed to effectively counter terrorism, crime, extortion and smuggling cases with a focus on enhancing enforcement measures.


Throwing the VPN baby out…


November 17, 2024 
DAWN




THOSE who govern us may have expertise in multiple areas, but their ability and propensity to score own goals seem without parallel. None of us will have to look too hard to find examples. The latest of these are curbs on the internet.

Pakistan often competes with India because it sees its eastern neighbour as a fierce rival and often gives the impression it has the desire and the ability to match it in all spheres. But does any Pakistani who believes this ever reflect with honesty on whether it is true?

India is about four times bigger than Pakistan in terms of land mass and five to six times larger in population. Now, if we were competing like for like, we’d have been justifiably smug if, for example, our trade volume, foreign exchange reserves, GDP and other key development indicators reflected this proportion.

Who doesn’t know the history which tells us that while our eastern neighbour had political (leadership) continuity well past its first decade as an independent state (16 years to be precise), saw meaningful land reforms and investment in education, with at least five world class IITs (Indian Institutes of Technology) set up within the first 14 years of its existence. Not forgetting the passage of its first constitution in 1950.

Hugely power-hungry players and their petty agendas take precedence over what is vital for the collective good.

In our case, a similar period of our existence saw the father of the nation passing away within 13 months of independence, assassination of his political heir apparent a few years later, and then a devastating and debilitating game of thrones which witnessed politicians and civil-military bureaucrats passing through a revolving door in power grabs, sanctioned by a superior judiciary that sullied itself and set the theme for years to come.

While India stayed on the democratic course, Pakistan strayed and strayed and strayed from it, in a tradition that continues to this day. The one area where Pakistan appeared to be ahead was in economic growth and development, funded by throwing in its lot with the West (read: the US) during the Cold War years and beyond.


In different forms, this slight edge continued till the early 1990s, when Manmohan Singh became India’s finance minister and embarked on an unprecedented reform and deregulation plan, which was to transform India’s economy and fate within a few years. There has been no looking back for it since.

Of course, critics of any such analysis would ask if Indian society is any better than Pakistan’s as a result of this economic growth and development. They’d cite the rise of Hindutva ideology and list its negative impact on the country and its unity. That would be valid criticism, as that is true.

Any such analysis does not for a moment suggest that Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah was wrong in seeking and securing a separate homeland for the Muslims of the subcontinent. He was right. It was his tragic death soon after independence that pushed Pakistan off track and into the direction in which it finds itself today.

The religious intolerance and strife in society and the extra-constitutional role and transgressions of various power players in the country since Mr Jinnah’s passing would have enraged him no end, and, frankly, they would not have happened had he lived through the initial years of Pakistan. But he did not.

What we have as a result is an unmitigated mess where various hugely power-hungry and self-righteous players and their petty agendas take precedence over what is vital for the collective good of the country and its citizens.

While many executives of Indian origin are now at the helm of global technology giants (a tribute to the quality education imparted by the IITs, 23 of which exist today with an enrolment of nearly 100,000 students at any given time), we are still debating whether free access to the internet is highly desirable or anathema to our society.

I became aware through an anecdote of the quality of IIT education when, in the early 1990s, my nephew, then at MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), told me that he was quite surprised to see some Indian students transferring directly from IITs to MIT undergrad programmes.

The result of this education and Dr Singh’s reform was that the Indian tech sector grew exponentially, like the rest of the economy. India today is home to some of the world’s leading technology companies, and their software exports total more than $200 billion a year, and are likely to grow further. India’s exports are services-led. So should ours.

Pakistan’s software exports are around $3.2bn annually. By no means is this comparison meant to run down our companies and IT professionals but merely to demonstrate the growth potential. Our firms have performed so well even when unsupported by government policy — not just unsupported, but often restricted, as is happening with this new VPN allergy that the rulers have developed.

Whatever the rationale they have cited for restricting free access to the modern tools of communication and information technology, it will not stand the test of time nor sanity. Contentious political issues will not be resolved by turning off the IT tap.

In fact, it is tantamount to turning off the water, food supply (even oxygen) to an entire city’s population because hiding among them are some terrorists. Any law enforcement has to be targeted and pinpointed. This collective punishment is self-defeating.

Instead of scoring own goals, those running the country should reflect and ask themselves whether they wish to see Pakistan as a modern developing/ developed state with its abundant youth talent contributing to its development, earning it billions in badly needed foreign exchange, or a dysfunctional isolationist security state perpetually in need of bailouts with all their negative consequences.

The writer is a former editor of Dawn.

abbas.nasir@hotmail.com

Published in Dawn, November 17th, 2024
BALOCHISTAN IS A COUNTRY

No quick fixes in Balochistan

Rafiullah Kakar 
Published November 16, 2024 
DAWN






THE deadly terrorist attack in Quetta has reignited debates surrounding the security situation in Balochistan. Predictably, hawkish voices have sought to discredit advocates for political reconciliation. This knee-jerk reaction merits a nuanced response.

There is no question that the escalation of violence by Baloch separatists has resulted in appalling attacks against innocent civilians, notably labourers, coal miners, truck drivers and others. These acts warrant unequivocal condemnation, and it is imperative that we stand united in denouncing violence against citizens merely seeking to work and live in peace.

Nonetheless, during such tragic situations, we must also guard against those who push their agenda for intensified repression of the Baloch people. Here’s why we should not adopt their hawkish narrative.

First, the Baloch insurgency is rooted in a deeply entrenched popular grievance stemming from decades of systemic political exclusion and socioeconomic marginalisation and exploitation. This grievance is pervasive, resonating across the spectrum of pro-state Baloch leaders, nationalists, and insurgents alike. Baloch grievances have historically been met with a combination of political engineering — co-optation and installation of pliant political voices — and coercion. This dual strategy may have produced an illusion of stability, but it has reinforced the underlying resentment and perception of disenfranchisement.

The reality is that insurgents have drawn strength from the very policies intended to curtail them.

The post-18th Amendment period presented a critical opportunity to foster political reconciliation and stability. Yet this opening was largely squandered. While the amendment was inadequate in its ability to address the underlying institutional drivers of Balochistan’s marginalised status, it still represented a major step towards federal harmony.

Through political and fiscal decentralisation, the amendment briefly pacified tensions, as Baloch nationalists largely engaged in the parliamentary process with renewed hope. However, this optimism was short-lived. The establishment’s de facto power at the provincial level not only endured but expanded.

Indeed, political developments since the 18th Amendment have only amplified grievances. Over the past decade, the province has seen a rapid turnover of six elected chief ministers (excluding caretaker leaders). At least two exited through the threat of no-confidence votes, allegedly backed by powerful elements in the establishment. The irony is that, despite the frequent reshuffling, the principal actors have remained nearly the same, though the political parties involved have changed because this cohort of ‘electables’ shifts political allegiances every five years at the behest of the state. This cycle of political musical chairs has left governance and public service delivery in a shambles, with little accountability.

Public procurement, jobs, and development funds have become prime conduits for rent-seeking and corruption. Street-smart politicians have adopted a simple formula for securing and retaining the chief minister’s post: the development budget is effectively parcelled out to MPAs, with the largest shares allocated to key ministers, heads of coalition partners, and non-elected ‘notables’. This approach has proven so effective that MPAs have often disregarded party lines to support the treasury benches, even when in opposition. Hence an elite class of ever-green politicians, along with their allies in the military and civil bureaucracy, have allegedly accumulated wealth and influence.

In the past, my critique of the corruption and misgovernance in Balochistan has been used by some to argue against the 18th Amendment and the seventh NFC Award. However, these issues are not a failure of decentralisation per se. Rather, the situation is an indictment of elite capture perpetuated primarily by state-sponsored political engineering.

The practice of political engineering has only intensified. The current provincial government, brought to power after the widely criticised elections of February 2024, arguably stands as one of the least legitimate coalitions in the last three decades. This persistent installation of pliant figures has eroded the legitimacy of parliamentary politics in the eyes of citizens. At the same time, state heavy-handedness has grown more pronounced: enforced disappearances of Baloch students and activists, mistreatment of peaceful protesters, and the recent strong-arming of BNP-M senators have fuelled distrust.

What state officials fail to realise is that such tactics serve only to bolster the Baloch insurgents’ narrative, who adeptly exploit these actions to portray the federal parliamentary system as ineffective and indifferent to Baloch grievances. Akhtar Mengal’s resignation from parliament stands as a striking illustration of this unfortunate reality.

In light of these realities, any strategy for peace that fails to address the foundational grievances underlying the insurgency is bound to fail.

Secondly, those advocating a more aggressive response appear to suffer from political amnesia. This hawkish stance has been the prevailing strategy for over two decades. The outcomes speak for themselves. The bitter reality is that insurgents have drawn strength from the very policies intended to curtail them.


Genuine political reconciliation, with few exceptions, has rarely been given a chance. One notable instance was the short-lived efforts of Dr Abdul Malik Baloch, whose tenure as chief minister saw an attempt at reconciliation undermined by the establishment, whose reliance on their Baloch protégés took precedence over fostering an authentic dialogue with Baloch nationalists.

The oversimplified question posed by hawks —‘how can one negotiate with those who don’t want to talk?’— obscures a more complex reality. In the climate of alienation, we may be approaching a point of no return. The situation has been compounded further by the changed character of the Baloch insurgency, where a younger, educated and more radical cadre calls the shots. The insurgency’s increasingly urban and decentralised nature renders traditional reconciliation efforts insufficient, even if all other factors were conducive.

Clearly, there are no simple solutions or quick fixes. However, confidence-building measures could help lay the groundwork for future political engagement. At a minimum, such CBMs should achieve these objectives: ensuring genuine political representation, ending enforced disappearances, and reducing the reliance on force. CBMs along these lines could open the door to a path of political reconciliation. Short of such CBMs, the future of Balochistan looks bleak.


Balochistan politics

Rafiullah Kakar 
Published November 16, 2023
DAWN

BALOCHISTAN has again captured the spotlight, courtesy of Nawaz Sharif’s strategic foray into the province to court electables from BAP and other parties in a bid to solidify PML-N’s position ahead of the polls. The influx of over two dozen electables into PML-N begs a critical evaluation of Islamabad’s approach towards Balochistan. The national discourse has almost always attributed the plight of Balochistan to its own predatory and corrupt political elite, particularly the tribal sardars. While Balochistan’s people generally agree with this assessment, they stress a crucial exception: these predatory elites owe their sustenance primarily to the patronage emanating from Islamabad.

The genesis of the predatory political behaviour of traditional elites in Balochistan can be traced to the tribal governance system of the British. Popularly known as the ‘Sandeman system’, the colonial frontier governance model corrupted tribal social structures and fortified the position of tribal sardars by extending to them patronage in exchange for performing specific administrative functions. Tribal sardars thus became integral to a two-way patron-client relationship, acting as both clients of the colonial state and patrons of their tribal subjects.

The postcolonial state perpetuated this policy of ‘indirect rule’ through the tribal sardars. Although the introduction of representative democracy opened avenues for commoners to enter the political arena, the de facto power of the sardars endured, courtesy of the patronage received from Islamabad. The Islamabad-sardar alliance symbolises a marriage of convenience, with the state providing patronage in return for sardars’ countering assertive Baloch nationalists and downplaying thorny issues straining Baloch-Islamabad ties.

Since Balochistan’s establishment as a province in 1970, it has predominantly witnessed rule by Islamabad-backed tribal elites. In the period from 1970 to 2023, Balochistan experienced civilian rule for only 28 years, with countrywide parties governing for approximately 22 years (82 per cent), leaving ethno-regional parties with a mere six years (18pc). Countrywide parties like the PML-N, PPP, and PTI have remained primary conduits for the traditional sardars and newly emerging electables, generally hailing from the mercantile class. They have switched political allegiances frequently. Despite their penchant for political nomadism, these turncoats find ready acceptance in the very parties they had deserted previously.

Ruling through electables has hindered parties’ organic growth.

In the current scenario, the influx of electables into the PML-N raises eyebrows about the party’s strategy for the restive province. Given the proclivity, and proven track record, of these electables to change political loyalties opportunistically, the PML-N leadership should prioritise the medium- and long-term goal of cultivating a genuine support base among the masses. Of all the parties, the PML-N should know better that these electables are trustworthy neither in the short nor medium term.

It was only in 2018 that the PML-N chief minister in Balochistan, Nawab Sanaullah Zehri, was deserted by more than two-thirds of his own party members in support of a no-confidence motion filed by the opposition. Requiring a simple majority (33 votes) to continue as Leader of the House, the PML-N, with 21 members in the provincial assembly, should have comfortably thwarted the motion with the support of coalition partners whose combined strength was 25. However, it couldn’t retain the loyalty of even nine out of 21 members and collapsed like a house of cards. Despite this experience, the PML-N leadership appears reluctant to learn from the past. The opportunistic and inconsistent behaviour of countrywide parties to­­wa­rds political turncoats ren­­­ders them susceptible to ex­­ternal ma­­­nipulation when political fortunes reverse.

This policy of ruling the province through electables has hindered the organic growth of political parties and fostered the growth of non-partisan, predatory political behaviour in the province.

Further, it has fostered and cemented patronage-based provision of public goods and services at the expense of systemic reforms and service delivery. Lastly, it has weakened the public accountability of elected representatives, who increasingly rely on state patronage rather than popular support to enhance their chances of re-election.

In conclusion, the embrace of proven turncoats carries damaging implications for both political culture and public service delivery. Moving forward, the countrywide parties and the ruling elite in Islamabad, at the minimum, must acknowledge their complicity in Balochistan’s crisis of political leadership rather than shifting the blame onto the province’s citizens.


The writer is a public policy and development specialist from Balochistan.

X: @rafiullahkakar

Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2024
What Kamala’s loss portends

The scale of Trump’s resurgence confirms that his 2016 victory wasn’t a fluke.

OPINION
Anis Shivani 
November 16, 2024
DAWN

MUCH of the election postmortem predictably focuses on the mistakes made by Kamala Harris, but I want to take a step back for a big-picture explanation of the Democrats’ across-the-board losses in the 2024 elections.

No doubt Joe Biden and his quick-fix successor’s missteps contributed to the wipeout, but the fundamental reason for the latest liberal setback against the ballooning hypernationalist threat is the political paralysis the declining empire confronts in its last days.

Running with discredited neocons like Liz Cheney, refusing to let a Muslim American speak during the convention, and hoping to run on vibes and joy alone were terrible concessions to the consultant-driven politics of corporate empowerment, but why did the Democratic Party prefer self-marginalisation rather than make any real effort to address economic pain and end the wars?

The scale of Donald Trump’s resurgence is confirmation that his initial 2016 victory wasn’t a fluke. Rather, the Obama era of strident identity politics plus pint-sized economic initiatives has received a definite rebuke. The 2024 election bears comparison to 1980 and 2000 for the working class’s rejection of the very policies neoliberals thought would benefit them. I wouldn’t describe it as realignment, which was mistakenly applied to 2004 and 2008 as well. This designation is thrown around by political operatives every few years, and except for 1968, in the wake of the Vietnam debacle and the South’s backlash towards civil rights legislation, is rarely applicable.

Trump will probably overreach in dismantling the administrative state as per Project 2025. The attempts to finish off the regulatory state in every sphere of life will cause unbearable pain. He will also try to impose stiff universal tariffs and implement mass deportations through administrative means and actual roundups. As these measures reignite inflation, his newly assembled coalition of working-class voters will shatter. By the next electoral cycle, they will be eager to move on, not that there will be any help forthcoming from the De­­m­ocrats in alleviating their declining quality of life.

Trump 2.0 is a different beast than the first incarnation. Inchoate isolationist tendencies — really, the desire of empire to terminate itself — have lately merged with the billionaire class’s overt interest in returning to the pre-New Deal era of zero regulation, buttressed by the state’s muscular punitiveness in keeping the working class in check.

Trump arrives infinitely better prepared than the last time, with loyalists ready with det­ai­led plans to have an immediate go at everything that makes life worth living. Even accomplishing a fraction of these aims, particularly with respect to migration and tariffs, will cause an upheaval, lea­ding to another oscillation in political fortunes.

The scale of Trump’s resurgence confirms that his 2016 victory wasn’t a fluke.

Every election now seems to be a change election. The last time there was any substantive bip­artisan legislative progress was when Bill Clinton put in place the foundations of neoliberal globalisation, followed by George W. Bush’s implementation of the surveillance state. Obamacare, a form of privatised medicine, yielded the Tea Party, and in part Trumpism. Each time there is a grassroots progressive upsurge, as with Ralph Nader in 2000 or Bernie Sanders in 2016 and 2020, the final result seems to be a massive rightward shift. The electorate has endorsed the same move this time.

Although much of the criticism of Harris’s loss will rightly focus on her unwillingness to offer any coherent economic message to alleviate the cost of living beyond bits and pieces, neither Biden nor Harris touted the progressive milestones they did achieve. It might sound surprising to praise Biden, but he was undoubtedly far to the left of Obama, and a down payment was made on clean energy, infrastructure rebuilding, industrial policy, and anti-trust regulation. Biden’s precipitous slide in popularity began when he rightly followed through on withdrawing from Afghanistan.






The original Build Back Better plan, whose care economy components were mostly removed, seems like an impossible dream in the wake of Harris’s rightward lurch. The Biden presidency can also be interpreted as a managed letdown from the peak of progressive enthusiasm, as social safety measures to soften the pandemic were abolished, but at least there was rhetorical fidelity to­­w­ards strengthening worker rights.

Immigration was rightly loosened up, to meet the enormous shortfall of workers, and the rate of growth of inflation, to which Trump’s previous tariffs and immigrat­­­ion restrictions contributed as much as pandemic-era supply chain shortages, were down considerably.

But why would Biden and Harris never run on the back of these initiatives? Why did Trumpian xenophobia and cultural paranoia, exemplified in the fear of transgendered people, so completely push Biden’s legislative efforts to the background? I don’t believe that the outcome of the election was inevitable, despite the ravages of inflation. Harris could have built on Biden’s rudimentary economic progressivism, and offered young people hope for a financially sustainable future and a way out of the dual wars of choice. But she didn’t, and it wasn’t coincidental.

There seems to be more soul-searching on the part of liberals than after 2004, and certainly 2016, when it was all too easy to blame Trump as an outlier and his voters as deplorables, and then spend years trying to disqualify him and his movement as criminal enterprises.

But what do you do when large numbers of working people of all races gravitate towards the party whose tariffs and migration crackdowns will cause enormous economic disruption? Is there even a language that exists to speak to such voters about the benefits of openness, after four decades of the neoliberal zero-sum game pitting individual against individual? Perhaps there is, but it wasn’t tried.

The healthiest outcome for the rest of the world would be for the MAGA movement to actually disengage from international linkages. This is the fatal blow the empire seems determined to inflict upon itself and it ultimately explains why progressive initiatives, large or small, cannot satisfy the rotten emptiness at the core. It was, finally, less a failure of strategy or tactics that doomed Harris than the downward trajectory of empire that now seems unstoppable.

The writer’s political books include Why Did Trump Win?

Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2024

Mushroom houses for Gaza? Arab designers offer home-grown innovations

By AFP
November 15, 2024

Mushroom-based structures are an appealing alternative to the shelters now housing many displaced Gazans - Copyright AFP FADEL SENNA

Sahar Al Attar

As winter descends on Gaza’s tent cities, emergency housing made from mushrooms could keep out the cold — just one of several sustainable, home-grown innovations put forward by Arab designers at an expo in Dubai.

Lightweight, warm and versatile, mushroom-based structures are an appealing alternative to the flimsy shelters now housing many thousands of Gazans displaced by more than a year of war, according to Dima Al Srouri, a member of the ReRoot initiative.

“Right now, there is a huge problem with the shelters that they’re receiving from NGOs,” she said at Dubai Design Week, which featured a range of environment-friendly innovations.

“When the winter comes, when it rains, when it’s too cold, they’re not working really.”

Mycelium, the root-like part of a fungus, can be grown in combination with organic matter to fit different-shaped moulds, producing a strong building material that can be cultivated anywhere.

It’s “a healthy material because it’s fully natural”, urban planning expert Srouri, who is Palestinian, said next to a prototype shelter — a roomy, enclosed structure with windows and a sloping roof.

“It’s something that can provide the solution to extreme weather conditions to protect them from the extreme cold.”

ReRoot’s emergency housing was not the only example of sustainable Arab design at the annual exhibition in Dubai, which closed on Sunday.

Contrasting with the towering high-rises that dominate the city’s skyline, Emirati architect and designer Abdalla Almulla is championing a very different approach: low-rise buildings made from recycled construction waste.

Almulla has teamed up with the Swiss company Oxara, which makes a low-carbon cement replacement, to create structures built with discarded concrete from demolished buildings and roofing made from palm fronds — a nod to the Gulf’s ancient construction techniques.

“When I look back, especially in the region where I’m living, a lot of the architecture and designs were based on finding what’s surrounding you, finding material around you and then being innovative and creating out of it,” Almulla said.

The model is intended as a riposte to the “world of abundance” that has come to characterise modern design, he added.

“Whenever you want… something, you need to ship it from halfway around the world.”


– Sustainability ‘not a luxury’ –


As well as the large-scale installations, smaller objects were on display, including furniture made from recycled materials and a 3D-printed electric motorcycle.

Faheem Khan, a Qatar-based designer, developed a bottle that minimises water consumption during Wudu, the ritual washing performed by Muslims before prayer.

Elif Resitoglu of Isola Design, the Milan-based studio that organised the exhibition, said sustainability was a “new thing” for Arab designers.

But they “blended it into their culture”, designing objects that “a Western designer could not actually design”, she said.

While the region is more concerned with conflicts than environmental matters, tackling the issue “is not a luxury”, said Srouri.

“For me, I always believe that the best way to do activism is through your work,” she said.

“You don’t have to shout out loud on the streets… Sometimes the solution can be through your knowledge and expertise and sharing it to solve other people’s challenges.”

The UAE, a major oil producer which hosted the UN’s COP28 climate talks last year, is one of the world’s largest emitters of CO2 per capita.

It is also in one of the hottest regions in the world, making it especially vulnerable to climate change.

According to climate data, the Middle East is warming at a rate nearly twice as fast as the global average.

Palestinians turn to local soda in boycott of Israel-linked goods

By AFP
November 15, 2024


Chat Cola has tapped into Palestinians' desire to move away from companies perceived as too supportive of Israel - Copyright AFP Arun SANKAR


Louis Baudoin-Laarman and Hossam Ezzedine

In a red box factory that stands out among the drab hills of the West Bank, Chat Cola’s employees race to quench Palestinians’ thirst for local products since the Gaza war erupted last year.

With packaging reminiscent of Coca-Cola’s iconic red and white aluminium cans, Chat Cola has tapped into Palestinians’ desire to shun brands perceived as too supportive of Israel.

“The demand for (Chat Cola) increased since the war began because of the boycott,” owner Fahed Arar, told AFP at the factory in the occupied West Bank town of Salfit.

Julien, a restaurateur in the city of Ramallah further south, said he has stocked his classic red Coca-Cola branded fridge with the local alternative since the war began in October last year.

Supermarket manager Mahmud Sidr described how sales of Palestinian products surged over the past year.

“We noticed an increase in sales of Arab and Palestinian products that do not support (Israel),” he said.

Although it does not supply Israeli troops in Gaza with free goods — as some US fast food brands have been rumoured to — Coca-Cola is perceived as simply too American.

The United States provides enormous military assistance to Israel, aid that has continued through the devastating military campaign in Gaza that Israel launched in response to Hamas’s unprecedented attack of October 7, 2023.

Coca-Cola did not respond to a request for comment, but it says the company does not support religion nor “any political causes, governments or nation states”.

A manager of the National Beverage Company, the Palestinian firm bottling Coca-Cola in the Palestinian territories, told AFP the company had not noticed the return of many products from local stores.

There was however a decline of up to 80 percent in the drink’s sales to foreign-named chains, said the manager, speaking on condition of anonymity.



– Not just cola –



“The national boycott movement has had a big impact,” Arar said.

Ibrahim al-Qadi, head of the Palestinian economy ministry’s consumer protection department, told AFP that 300 tonnes of Israeli products were destroyed over the past three months after passing their sell-by date for want of buyers.

The Palestinian economy’s dependence on Israeli products has made a broader boycott difficult and Chat Cola’s popularity partly stems from being one of the few quality Palestinian alternatives.

“There’s a willingness to boycott if the Palestinian producers can produce equivalently good quality and price,” the head of the Palestine Economic Policy Research Institute, Raja Khalidi, told AFP.

Khalidi said the desire for Palestinian substitutes has grown sharply since the war in Gaza began, but is stifled by “an issue of production capacity which we lack”.

A boycott campaign has been more successful in neighbouring Arab states less dependent on Israeli goods.

In neighbouring Jordan, the franchisee of French retail giant Carrefour, Dubai-based conglomerate Majid Al Futtaim Group announced it was shutting down all its operations after activists called for a boycott.



– ‘Palestinian taste’ –



Chat Cola’s Arar is proud of developing a quality Palestinian product.

Staff at the company’s Salfit factory wear sweaters emblazoned with the words “Palestinian taste” in Arabic and the Palestinian flag.

After opening the factory in 2019, Arar plans to open a new one in Jordan to meet international demand and avoid the complications of operating in the occupied West Bank.

Although the plant still turns out thousands of cans of Chat, one production line has been shut down for more than a month.

Israeli authorities have held up a large shipment of raw materials at the Jordanian border, hitting output, Arar said, adding he can meet only 10 to 15 percent of demand for his product.

As Arar spoke, Israeli air defences intercepted a rocket likely launched from Lebanon, creating a small cloud in view of the plant.

But with war have come opportunities.

“There has never been the political support for buying local that there is now, so it’s a good moment for other entrepreneurs to start up,” economist Khalidi said.