SPACE RACE 2.0

The Mysteries of the Dark Side of the Moon

Joelle Renstrom
Fri, August 18, 2023 

Photo illustration by Slate. Photos by Getty Images Plus.

If all goes according to plan, next week spacecraft from Russia and India will arrive at the moon’s south pole, an area thus far unexplored by both humans and landers. A successful landing by either country would represent a scientific first and would pave the way for future missions by these and other countries, such as the U.S. and China. Those missions will later be crewed—also a big deal, as no human has been to the moon in more than 50 years. And presumably, those crews will eventually lead the construction of lunar bases, which will have major implications both on Earth and in space.

Indeed, the lunar south pole appears to be the stage of the next space race. For practical and scientific reasons, as well as for geopolitical and astropolitical ones, this race is different from the Soviet–U.S. one of the 1960s. And although the U.S. isn’t directly involved in either of the current south pole missions, these missions will galvanize future moon exploration and habitation. They also set the stage for a future in which, once again, the world’s space-faring powers will have a choice between competition and collaboration.

In 1959, Russia’s Luna-2 became the first spacecraft to reach the moon’s surface, and in 1966, its Luna-9 made the world’s first successful lunar landing. Russia’s last uncrewed mission there, Luna-24, concluded in 1976. Nearly 50 years later, Luna-25, Russia’s latest lander, launched on Aug. 11. But Luna-25 isn’t the only craft with the south pole in its sights. The craft’s initial landing date, Aug. 23, was bumped up to Aug. 21, largely in an attempt to beat India’s moon-bound spacecraft, Chandrayaan-3, which launched in July and also has a target landing date of Aug. 23. (India’s spacecraft has taken a less direct route to the moon than Russia’s, in part because it’s carrying a bigger and heavier payload.)

Both missions seek to land on the moon’s mountainous south pole, a difficult and dangerous landing spot. Because of the lack of sunlight, much of the region—where temperatures can drop below –300 degrees Fahrenheit—has remained in endless darkness for billions of years. But hidden in this darkness could be something essential for a human future on the moon: frozen water.

NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, India’s Chandrayaan-1, and other spacecraft have observed the presence of billions of gallons of water ice in the lunar poles. But thus far, those observations have been conducted from afar. Russia and India both seek to confirm firsthand the presence of water ice—and see if there’s even more of it under the surface. Chandrayaan-3 will also study the moon’s surface, atmosphere, and tectonic activity, running at least two weeks’ worth of experiments. Luna-25 is scheduled to operate on the moon for a year, drilling, collecting, and analyzing samples.

Why is ice so important? Ice leads to water, which boosts the chances of long-term lunar habitation. It could also help astronauts produce oxygen and rocket fuel. And figuring out how to mine and process water ice could pave the way not only for future lunar bases, but also for travel beyond the moon.

Space exploration is rarely just about space or science, and this is especially true for Russia. Russia’s war against Ukraine put its collaboration with the U.S., with whom it shares the International Space Station, on precarious footing. Last year, Roscosmos, Russia’s space agency, announced that it intended to pull out of that partnership in 2024—though it later walked that back, saying it wanted to remain involved with the ISS until at least 2028, at which point Russia’s own space station could be operational.

As Russia looks to walk away from collaborations at the ISS, it’s shaking hands with countries like China, which is not an ISS partner. According to the Russian News Agency, the director general of Roscosmos said that after it finishes three other pending lunar missions, it will embark on “the next phase—a manned mission and the construction of a lunar base with our colleagues from China.” The director general also said he “expect[s] many countries to join” the lunar base program it intends to create with China. It’s unclear who those other countries will be—though if the U.S. is not in that group, it’s reasonable to imagine that a Russia-China partnership might prompt the U.S. to accelerate the construction of the lunar base it already has planned on the south pole.

And what about India? You may not think of the country as a space superpower, but it has slowly and steadily developed a cosmic presence. In 2008 India sent Chandrayaan-1 into lunar orbit, the country’s first major space milestone. Its 2014 Mars Orbiter Mission made India’s space agency the fourth to successfully guide a spacecraft into the red planet’s orbit. Chandrayaan-2 would have become the first spacecraft to land on the south side of the moon in 2019, but it crashed. If Chandrayaan-3 touches down successfully, India will become just the fourth country to land a spacecraft on the moon. (China became the third in 2013 with its Yutu-1 rover; the Yutu-2 rover, which landed on the moon in 2019, remains in operation.)

Although it’s unclear who India’s space allies might be for future missions, the country should be considered a major player in the next chapter of space exploration. Space exploration, after all, has long eclipsed the exclusive province of the U.S. and Russia. China’s speedy and ambitious advancements in space include the operation of its own space station. All of these countries possess fierce military might, including nuclear weapons, which raises the stakes of these lunar missions. Soon, the moon’s south pole will be another venue for competition—or for collaboration.