2024 Presidential Election In The US And Its Implication For Myanmar Policy – OpEd
“We do not have government by the majority. We have government by the majority who participate.” As quoted by Thomas Jefferson, U.S. citizens are participating in a historic turnout in the 60th quadrennial presidential election to choose between two contrasting candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. This significant election highlights stark policy differences that could impact both domestic and foreign affairs.
While the economy is the top issue among voters, a large majority (69%) cite at least five of the ten issues surveyed by the Pew Research Center as very important to their vote. Among Trump supporters, the leading issues are the economy (93%), immigration (82%), violent crime (76%), foreign policy (74%), and healthcare (55%). For Harris supporters, issues such as healthcare (76%), Supreme Court appointments (73%), the economy (68%), abortion (67%), and foreign policy (54%) are of top importance.
While current foreign policy has focused heavily on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Middle East, and China, strategic competition with China—now one of the world’s two largest economies, alongside the United States—will be one of the most consequential foreign policy challenges confronting the next presidential administration. It will face an increasingly contentious relationship with Beijing on both trade and security issues. Focusing solely on Taiwan and overlooking Myanmar would be a missed opportunity in crafting a strategic policy on China.
Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are essential components in diverse industrial and high-tech applications. China, the world’s largest producer of REEs, accounts for 70% of global annual mine production, while the United States (14%), Australia (6%), Myanmar (4%), and Thailand (2%) make up the rest. China sourced 72% of the U.S.’s rare earth imports in 2022, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Ironically, China imports REEs from Myanmar, with a 52.1% year-over-year increase in imports, reaching the highest level in 2023, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Global Trade Analytics Suite.
A shortage of REEs would be considered a significant national security threat for the United States, which heavily relies on imports, primarily from China. This dependence could be used as leverage to disrupt vital military and technological applications, such as advanced weaponry, aircraft, and renewable energy systems—essentially creating a potential chokepoint for U.S. national security.
On February 1, 2021, Min Aung Hlaing and the military ousted the democratically elected Aung San Suu Kyi’s civilian government in a coup. The coup was met with strong resistance through widespread, peaceful demonstrations and the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM). The brutal crackdown by the military led to the formation of armed resistance across the country, marking the beginning of a violent new chapter known as the Spring Revolution. This involved genuine nationwide resistance by all ethnic groups, brought together into a unified front with aligned political objectives and military cooperation.
The Myanmar crisis was the first foreign policy challenge for the Biden administration. The U.S. immediately condemned the coup and the violent suppression of peaceful demonstrations, as well as the atrocities committed by the military. However, the administration became passive in dealing with the crisis. Unlike the United States, which has been largely sidelined, China has played an important role as the most influential foreign actor in Myanmar.
China is the largest investor in Myanmar, which is also strategically important for China’s access to the Indian Ocean, providing a critical alternative route from the South China Sea through the Strait of Malacca. Additionally, the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor is a key component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. China seeks to use its influence in Myanmar to encourage a stable environment that can boost Chinese investments and secure perpetual stability along its 1,250-mile border. Despite Beijing’s preference for state-centric diplomacy, China initially conducted backdoor diplomacy through various groups and special envoys, as long as U.S. involvement remained minimal.
As Myanmar’s junta loses its grip on power, China still seeks to maximize its influence with all parties in the civil war. However, China opposes the collapse of the junta. China is also concerned about the rise of rebel groups that have built an alliance with the National Unity Government, which Beijing fears could be influenced by the West due to their engagement in humanitarian assistance and advocacy for democracy. The passage of the Burma Act in December 2022, which provides a framework for U.S. engagement and support for democracy in Myanmar, has further complicated China’s position.
Shortly after the collapse of the Northeast military command center in Lashio, China became more proactive, shifting its posture by pressuring rebel forces for a ceasefire, blocking imports, and tightening border controls. Myanmar remains a diplomatic and security headache for China: the same situation as before the coup, where different actors will listen to China only to an extent and act according to their own interests, sometimes surprising China. The ongoing civil conflict and the rise of anti-junta forces have complicated China’s approach. Additionally, Beijing is uncomfortable with the junta’s close military ties to Russia.
The next U.S. administration, regardless of which candidate wins, will face several critical considerations. Supporting Myanmar’s democratic forces could serve as a counterbalance to China’s regional dominance.
If Kamala Harris wins, the Harris administration should address the shortcomings of the current administration’s symbolic support, which has inadvertently led to paradoxical effects, particularly regarding China’s influence over the resistance forces fighting against the military dictatorship—the perpetrators of regional instability. If Donald Trump prevails, the national security-focused Trump administration must adopt a fresh outlook on Myanmar, which might seem like an unimportant spot in Southeast Asia, but is, in fact, a potential source of essential resources for national security, particularly rare earth elements.
The Myanmar situation presents an opportunity for the next U.S. administration to demonstrate leadership in promoting democracy while addressing strategic interests in Southeast Asia. By engaging more actively with Myanmar’s pro-democracy forces and working with regional allies to articulate clear, strategic policies on Myanmar that align with broader U.S. interests in Asia-Pacific stability, human rights, and economic security, the U.S. can potentially influence the balance of power in this critical region. For the citizens of the U.S., “the ballot is stronger than the bullet,” as quoted by Abraham Lincoln.
Reference:
- https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-the-2024-election/
- https://natural-resources.canada.ca/our-natural-resources/minerals-mining/mining-data-statistics-and-analysis/minerals-metals-facts/rare-earth-elements-facts/20522
- https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/how-an-anxious-china-is-backing-myanmars-faltering-junta-civil-war-2024-10-25/
- https://www.stimson.org/2024/china-in-myanmar-how-the-game-changing-neighbor-would-continue-to-maintain-its-influence/
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