The 2024 Southeast Asian Heatwave and Indonesia’s Divergent Experience
Why Indonesia’s warming phenomenon is different with the rest of Southeast Asia.
Recently, ‘weather’ and ‘climate’ have become buzzwords in discussions about climatological events took place in my region, Southeast Asia. While related, these terms have distinct meanings. Weather refers to the short-term atmospheric conditions in a specific area, fluctuating rapidly from hour to hour or day to day. In contrast, climate describes the long-term average weather patterns in a region, typically measured over 30 years or more.
Understanding this distinction is crucial, as these terms are often used interchangeably. Weather might describe a single rainy day, while climate refers to the overall tendency for a region to experience rainy seasons. Recognizing this difference is essential for interpreting scientific reports, news articles, and discussions about our changing Earth.
The Heatwave Impacts Across Southeast Asia
Starting in early 2024, a significant heatwave swept across Southeast Asia, peaking in April, with extreme increases in both average daily and maximum temperatures. This climatological event, characterized by prolonged periods of abnormally high temperatures, has had far-reaching impacts on the region. Reports from various Southeast Asian media highlight the severity of the heatwave’s effects:
- Thailand: The heatwave has tragically took 30 lives due to heatstroke, prompting urgent calls for precautionary measures.
- Malaysia: At least two heat-related fatalities have been recorded, including the death of a young child, as per April 2024.
- Vietnam: Abnormally high temperatures in the South have caused widespread drought, devastating rice fields and triggering a state of emergency due to the severe impact on the agricultural sector.
- Cambodia: The heatwave is expected to persist, prolonging its effects on the country.
- Philippines: In-person classes in some cities have been suspended as daily temperatures soared to 42 degrees Celsius.
What is a heatwave and how we define a heatwave?
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a heatwave is defined by specific criteria:
- An increase in the average temperature of 5 degrees Celsius (or more) above the normal average.
- This elevated temperature must persist for five or more consecutive days.
Most of Southeast Asia lies within the mid-latitudes, where heatwaves are common. This latitudinal position also makes the region susceptible to El Niño events, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Prolonged El Niño events can disrupt weather patterns, leading to changes in temperature and rainfall.
However, Indonesia’s location in low latitudes results in a somewhat different experience of this phenomenon, which will be explored in the latter part of this article.
Is it still related to climate change?
To classify a weather event as a climate phenomenon, extensive data spanning long periods is necessary. Only by observing significant shifts in weather patterns over time can we confidently link them to potential indicators of climate change.
It is true that climate change has the potential to amplify the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.
Heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, storms, and floods are all examples of events that can become more common and severe as the planet warms. This heightened intensity is due to the fact that warmer air holds more moisture, leading to increased precipitation and intense downpours.
Furthermore, climate change can also trigger shifts in temperature patterns.
Beyond simply raising average temperatures, it can also disrupt cycles of dry and rainy seasons. For instance, Indonesia typically experiences its rainy season from October to March. However, significant anomalies have been observed since last year, with October 2023 being unusually hot, and the hot season extending into April 2024.
To fully grasp the intricacies of the heatwave phenomenon in Southeast Asia, it’s crucial to understand the role of air movement and heat masses as Southeast Asia lies within the tropics, a region characterized by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a band of high-altitude, extremely hot air.
Within the ITCZ, convection is prevalent, with air rising and carrying abundant water vapor due to increased evaporation from the region’s vast oceans. This process effectively ‘supercharges’ the atmosphere, leading to an abundance of water vapor, cloud formation, and rainfall, which can significantly alter precipitation patterns.
What’s happening in Indonesia is not a heatwave
Contrary to other Southeast Asian countries, after careful analysis, the hot weather phenomenon experienced in Indonesia is not classified as a heatwave. This conclusion aligns with official statements released by the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) and the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN).
According to the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) criteria for heatwaves, the average daily maximum temperature in Indonesia throughout 2024 has only ranged from 35.2 to 36 degrees Celsius. This range falls short of the 5-degree Celsius increase above the average temperature typically required for a heatwave classification. Furthermore, Indonesia’s location at a low latitude prevents it from experiencing the same level of intense heat observed in countries like Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Myanmar.
While heatwaves are infrequent in Indonesia, their occurrence can trigger changes in temperature patterns. Data collected from 1981 to 2022 reveals that the most significant temperature increases have been recorded in Palembang (1 degree Celsius) and Medan (0.9 degrees Celsius). However, despite these fluctuations, official records show no instances of heatwaves in the country to date.
What sets Indonesia apart from other Southeast Asian nations in this regard?
Beyond its slightly different latitudinal position, Indonesia’s unique geography, dominated by vast bodies of water, plays a crucial role. The surrounding waters act as a natural ‘cooling system’, effectively mitigating the conditions necessary for heatwave development.
With two-thirds of its territory comprised of water, Indonesia experiences dynamic atmospheric circulation patterns. This dynamic nature ensures that even if a heatwave were to occur, it would be short-lived and unlikely to persist for an extended period of time.
In contrast, many Southeast Asian countries share land borders and are located within the mid-latitudes, where heatwaves are more common. In such regions, heat phenomena originating in one country can easily spread across borders, exacerbating the situation and leading to slower atmospheric circulation patterns that further prolong the heatwave
In conclusion, Indonesia’s extensive water bodies and dynamic atmospheric circulation, provides a natural shield against the prolonged and intense heatwaves that often affect other Southeast Asian countries.
While the region as a whole is susceptible to such phenomena due to its latitudinal position and shared land borders, Indonesia’s distinct characteristics set it apart, offering a more temperate and resilient environment in the face of rising global temperatures as now happening in the first half of 2024.
Thank you for reading.
Heatwave crisis bearing down on developing Asia
Spike in temperatures in South and Southeast Asia are cause for long-term concern
By PRANJAL PANDEY
In April 2024, extreme heat hit South and Southeast Asia, affecting nations like India, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Myanmar. These heat waves severely impacted some of the world’s most densely populated regions, taking a heavy toll on health, the economy, and education.
In May and June, tens of millions of people faced dangerous heat. India had its longest heat wave ever, starting in mid-May. In northern India, temperatures rose above 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit), with some areas exceeding 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit). Official reports in May mentioned 56 heat-related deaths between March and May, but the real number is probably higher because rural deaths often aren’t reported.
Myanmar has faced unprecedented high temperatures in several townships, including Magway, Mandalay, Sagaing, and Bago divisions. Cambodia has recently experienced its highest temperatures in 170 years, reaching up to 43 degrees Celsius (109 Fahrenheit).
In northern Thailand, temperatures soared above 44 degrees Celsius (111 Fahrenheit), while Bangkok saw temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit). In 2024, Thailand’s summer, which typically runs from late February to late May, was 1–2 degrees Celsius hotter than the previous year, with rainfall below average.
Through May 10, 2024, at least 61 people in Thailand died from heatstroke, compared to 37 deaths throughout the entire previous year.
The intense heat has caused disruptions in education and labor productivity. In the Philippines, authorities instructed millions of students to stay home by suspending in-person classes for two days. The Department of Education directed more than 47,000 public schools to shift to online lessons.
Extreme heat is influenced by both local and global factors. Locally, reduced vegetation and soil moisture contribute to higher temperatures. Urban areas, with their concrete and asphalt surfaces, retain heat, creating what is known as the urban heat island effect. Additionally, wind patterns and cloud cover play roles in local temperature variations.
El Niño is a weather phenomenon characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It occurs irregularly every few years and can affect global weather patterns.
During El Niño, increased ocean temperatures lead to changes in atmospheric circulation, which can cause heavy rainfall in some regions and droughts in others. It also influences the jet stream, altering storm patterns worldwide.
In South and Southeast Asia, El Niño often correlates with hotter and drier conditions, worsening heat waves and extending dry periods. These conditions pose severe challenges for agriculture, leading to reduced crop yields and increased wildfire risks.
El Niño and La Niña are integral to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, a natural phenomenon causing significant year-to-year climate variations on Earth.
However, human-induced climate change is now affecting this cycle. Studies indicate that that factor is increasing the occurrence and intensity of severe El Niño events, multiplying their impacts such as droughts, floods, heat waves, and altered hurricane patterns.
Climate models predict that extreme El Niño events could occur approximately every 10 years instead of every 20 due to global warming. This heightened frequency could result in more frequent and severe weather-related disasters globally.
Climate change presents a significant challenge for Global South countries due to their limited resources and capacity to respond effectively. These nations heavily rely on agriculture as a vital economic pillar, making them particularly vulnerable to the erratic weather patterns associated with climate change. Consequently, they often experience crop failures, food insecurity, and heightened poverty levels.
Economically, the impact is substantial. Projections from the World Bank indicate that by 2050, over 140 million people in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America may be internally displaced due to factors exacerbated by climate change such as water scarcity and reduced agricultural productivity.
Socially, climate change worsens existing inequalities within these countries. The poorest populations, despite contributing minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions, bear the brunt of climate-related disasters such as floods and droughts. This exacerbates health issues, displaces communities, and sparks competition over essential resources like water and land. Moreover, inadequate healthcare infrastructure further complicates matters, as these countries struggle to manage the increased burden of climate-related illnesses.
Heat waves pose a serious threat to low-income communities, worsening existing health and economic disparities. These neighborhoods often lack adequate infrastructure to handle extreme temperatures, such as poorly insulated homes and limited access to cooling options.
The urban heat island effect further exacerbates the problem, making urban areas hotter than surrounding rural regions due to human activities. As a result, cooling costs rise, putting financial strain on many low-income families during heat waves.
The health impacts on these communities are significant, with more hospitalizations due to heat-related illnesses like dehydration, heat exhaustion, and potentially fatal heatstroke. Limited health care access complicates timely treatment during heat emergencies. Moreover, existing health conditions prevalent in these areas, such as respiratory and heartdiseases, worsen under extreme heat.
Economically, heat waves disrupt the livelihoods of low-income workers who rely on outdoor jobs or work in non-climate-controlled environments. Lost work hours due to illness or caregiving responsibilities contribute to financial instability.
Heat waves present significant risks to vulnerable populations in third-world countries, particularly women, the elderly, and children, exacerbating their health and socioeconomic challenges. Women, often engaged in agricultural labor, face heightened susceptibility to heat-related illnesses due to limited health care access and outdoor work.
The elderly, with age-related health issues and reduced mobility, are at increased risk of heat stress complications, compounded by insufficient cooling infrastructure. Prolonged heat waves can lead to school closures and hinder educational opportunities, further impacting the development and future prospects of children in these regions.
While developed nations revel in the comforts of modern life, third-world countries face the harsh realities of escalating climate change and severe heat waves. These communities grapple with extreme temperatures that disrupt daily routines, endanger health, and undermine economic stability.
The unequal distribution of resources starkly illustrates that as global temperatures increase, the consequences disproportionately affect those with limited resources and infrastructure to cope and adapt.
Pranjal Pandey, a journalist and editor located in Delhi, has edited seven books covering a range of issues available at LeftWord. You can explore his journalistic contributions on NewsClick.in.
Published Globetrotter.
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