1 November, 2024
LEFT FOOT FORWARD
The public haven't warmed to the Tories
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At the time of writing, we don’t know whether Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch will be the next leader of the Conservative Party. But we do know they’ve got a mighty uphill struggle to turn around the party’s fortunes after its worst ever general election defeat.
New polling has firmly driven this home. The headline figures from YouGov’s latest poll on the Tory leadership election will make grim reading in Tory circles.
Here are the 8 key stats you need to know from the poll:
The public haven't warmed to the Tories
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At the time of writing, we don’t know whether Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch will be the next leader of the Conservative Party. But we do know they’ve got a mighty uphill struggle to turn around the party’s fortunes after its worst ever general election defeat.
New polling has firmly driven this home. The headline figures from YouGov’s latest poll on the Tory leadership election will make grim reading in Tory circles.
Here are the 8 key stats you need to know from the poll:
Keir Starmer has a 7 point lead over Kemi Badenoch on who would make the best prime minister. 27% of the public say Starmer, compared to 20% who say Badenoch.
Those figures are marginally worse for Robert Jenrick. 29% of the public say Starmer would be the better PM, compared to 21% wo say Jenrick.
Robert Jenrick has a -27% favourability rating. Just 13% of the public say they have a favourable opinion of him, compared to 40% who say they have an unfavourable one.
Kemi Badenoch’s favourability is worse, at -33%. Just 12% of the public say they have a favourable rating of her, compared to 45% who say they have a unfavourable one.
Just 16% of the public think Kemi Badenoch would make a good Conservative Party leader. That’s less than half of those who think she’d make a bad leader – 35%.
Robert Jenrick doesn’t get a ringing endorsement either, with only 17% of the public thinking he would make a good Conservative Party leader. 31% say he’d make a bad leader.
In spite of all this, it turns out the public don’t really care who wins. Just 19% of the public say they care a great deal or a fair amount about whether Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch become the next Conservative Party leader. A whopping 71% of people say they don’t care very much or at all.
And the public think the Tories are irrelevant. Over half (51%) of the public say the Tories are not relevant to British politics at the moment, compared to just 35% who think they are relevant.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
Those figures are marginally worse for Robert Jenrick. 29% of the public say Starmer would be the better PM, compared to 21% wo say Jenrick.
Robert Jenrick has a -27% favourability rating. Just 13% of the public say they have a favourable opinion of him, compared to 40% who say they have an unfavourable one.
Kemi Badenoch’s favourability is worse, at -33%. Just 12% of the public say they have a favourable rating of her, compared to 45% who say they have a unfavourable one.
Just 16% of the public think Kemi Badenoch would make a good Conservative Party leader. That’s less than half of those who think she’d make a bad leader – 35%.
Robert Jenrick doesn’t get a ringing endorsement either, with only 17% of the public thinking he would make a good Conservative Party leader. 31% say he’d make a bad leader.
In spite of all this, it turns out the public don’t really care who wins. Just 19% of the public say they care a great deal or a fair amount about whether Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch become the next Conservative Party leader. A whopping 71% of people say they don’t care very much or at all.
And the public think the Tories are irrelevant. Over half (51%) of the public say the Tories are not relevant to British politics at the moment, compared to just 35% who think they are relevant.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
Tory leadership race: what does Kemi Badenoch’s victory show?
The Tory leadership race has pulled the party further to the right
Kemi Badenoch
By Camilla Royle
Saturday 02 November 2024
Saturday 02 November 2024
Kemi Badenoch—a hard right “culture war” warrior—won the Tory leadership race with 53,806 votes compared to Robert Jenrick’s 41,388.
Badenoch has called for a defence of “British values” and a crack down on migration. She said, “We cannot be naive and assume immigrants will automatically abandon ancestral ethnic hostilities at the border, or that all cultures are equally valid. They are not.”
She wants to change the Equality Act to ban transgender women from “women and girls’ spaces”. And she has attacked transgender children, saying that she “fundamentally disagrees” that under 18 year olds can be trans.
Earlier this year Badenoch was forced to backtrack after suggesting that maternity pay is “excessive” and threatens small businesses. Her comments were part of a wider attack on regulations for the bosses.
The Tories are crowing that they have a black leader, unlike any of the other major parties. But this is no victory for black people.
When she was equalities minister Badenoch said it was against the law for schools to teach what she calls “Critical Race Theory”. She supported the Sewell report, which denied the existence of institutional racism in Britain.
Badenoch’s media strategy has involved keeping relatively quiet and allowing her rival to dig himself into a hole.
Jenrick has waded into the realm of far right politics earlier this week. He said he was “seriously concerned that facts may have been withheld” when the Southport murders suspect was charged with terror offences.
He talked about a “cover-up” by “liberal elites”—language usually associated with fascists and the right.
In the final round of Conservative Party leadership contests, the party membership gets to vote for the winner.
This is a small and dwindling rump of some of the worst people in British society. The party had around 172,000 members in 2022. In this leadership election they stated that there were 131,680 eligible voters.
Over 60 percent of Tory members in 2022 were over 55. This is true of just 26 percent of the general population. Some 97 percent of them classified themselves as White British and they tend to be richer than the average.
One study found that 77 percent of Tory members think that young people need to have more respect for British values. Over half support the death penalty in some cases. And 42 percent want censorship of films and magazines to uphold “moral standards”.
Badenoch and Braverman—what’s behind the rise of black reactionaries?
Read More
But, more than the views of the Tory membership, Badenoch’s victory is a symptom of the influence of the far right on mainstream politics.
The general election was a devastating defeat for the Tories. Reform UK got more than four million votes and came second in 98 seats—in many places beating the Conservative Party.
Since then, the Tory leadership candidates lurched rightwards in an effort to court racist voters. This is why, in a short and opaque victory speech, Badenoch alluded to a need to “reset our politics and our thinking” and to bring voters back to the party.
But the politics on offer from both candidates seems to be leaving most people cold. A YouGov poll published yesterday found that 40 percent of British people have an unfavourable view of Jenrick and 45 percent have an unfavourable view of Badenoch.
Only 13 percent and 12 percent of people said they like the respective candidates. Everyone else did not know. Conservative voters viewed both candidates more favourably. But the disapproval ratings were still 29 for Jenrick and 26 percent for Badenoch.
Even some Tories were disappointed with the embarrassing choice. Former Scottish Conservatives leader Ruth Davison said that both Jenrick and Badenoch were unsuited to be leader of the opposition because of their “personality types”. She expects more turmoil and potentially another leadership election in a couple of years.
It is tempting to think this leadership result will put the Tory party one step closer to the dustbin of history.
But the same YouGov poll showed a whopping 63 percent of people disapproved of Labour’s Keir Starmer.
The Tories think they can take on a weak Labour government. But we don’t have to be spectators to the mainstream parties’ crisis. We need to build the movement against racism—whether it comes from Reform, the Tories or Labour—and an alternative to pro-boss, anti-worker policies.
Badenoch has called for a defence of “British values” and a crack down on migration. She said, “We cannot be naive and assume immigrants will automatically abandon ancestral ethnic hostilities at the border, or that all cultures are equally valid. They are not.”
She wants to change the Equality Act to ban transgender women from “women and girls’ spaces”. And she has attacked transgender children, saying that she “fundamentally disagrees” that under 18 year olds can be trans.
Earlier this year Badenoch was forced to backtrack after suggesting that maternity pay is “excessive” and threatens small businesses. Her comments were part of a wider attack on regulations for the bosses.
The Tories are crowing that they have a black leader, unlike any of the other major parties. But this is no victory for black people.
When she was equalities minister Badenoch said it was against the law for schools to teach what she calls “Critical Race Theory”. She supported the Sewell report, which denied the existence of institutional racism in Britain.
Badenoch’s media strategy has involved keeping relatively quiet and allowing her rival to dig himself into a hole.
Jenrick has waded into the realm of far right politics earlier this week. He said he was “seriously concerned that facts may have been withheld” when the Southport murders suspect was charged with terror offences.
He talked about a “cover-up” by “liberal elites”—language usually associated with fascists and the right.
In the final round of Conservative Party leadership contests, the party membership gets to vote for the winner.
This is a small and dwindling rump of some of the worst people in British society. The party had around 172,000 members in 2022. In this leadership election they stated that there were 131,680 eligible voters.
Over 60 percent of Tory members in 2022 were over 55. This is true of just 26 percent of the general population. Some 97 percent of them classified themselves as White British and they tend to be richer than the average.
One study found that 77 percent of Tory members think that young people need to have more respect for British values. Over half support the death penalty in some cases. And 42 percent want censorship of films and magazines to uphold “moral standards”.
Badenoch and Braverman—what’s behind the rise of black reactionaries?
Read More
But, more than the views of the Tory membership, Badenoch’s victory is a symptom of the influence of the far right on mainstream politics.
The general election was a devastating defeat for the Tories. Reform UK got more than four million votes and came second in 98 seats—in many places beating the Conservative Party.
Since then, the Tory leadership candidates lurched rightwards in an effort to court racist voters. This is why, in a short and opaque victory speech, Badenoch alluded to a need to “reset our politics and our thinking” and to bring voters back to the party.
But the politics on offer from both candidates seems to be leaving most people cold. A YouGov poll published yesterday found that 40 percent of British people have an unfavourable view of Jenrick and 45 percent have an unfavourable view of Badenoch.
Only 13 percent and 12 percent of people said they like the respective candidates. Everyone else did not know. Conservative voters viewed both candidates more favourably. But the disapproval ratings were still 29 for Jenrick and 26 percent for Badenoch.
Even some Tories were disappointed with the embarrassing choice. Former Scottish Conservatives leader Ruth Davison said that both Jenrick and Badenoch were unsuited to be leader of the opposition because of their “personality types”. She expects more turmoil and potentially another leadership election in a couple of years.
It is tempting to think this leadership result will put the Tory party one step closer to the dustbin of history.
But the same YouGov poll showed a whopping 63 percent of people disapproved of Labour’s Keir Starmer.
The Tories think they can take on a weak Labour government. But we don’t have to be spectators to the mainstream parties’ crisis. We need to build the movement against racism—whether it comes from Reform, the Tories or Labour—and an alternative to pro-boss, anti-worker policies.
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