Tuesday, December 03, 2024

Imperial rivals circle Syria as civil war returns to Aleppo

Syrian socialist Ghayath Naisse spoke to Socialist Worker about the roots of the situation in Syria



Syria has been torn apart by imperialism and civil war

By Arthur Townend
Monday 02 December 2024
SOCIALIST WORKER Issue 2934

Bashar al Assad’s regime in Syria faces its biggest challenge in a decade as the civil war ­reignited last week. Forces led by Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), an armed Islamist group backed by Turkey, launched a military offensive in the north of the country.

HTS was formed out of a merger of several groups in 2017. Its leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani broke away from the Al Qaeda organisation in 2016. It took control of Syria’s second city, Aleppo, last week and its ­militarised forces are now pushing further into the country. Assad, backed by Russia and Iran, is determined to regain control.

Syrian socialist Ghayath Naisse told Socialist Worker that in order to unpick the latest events, it was important to understand three things.

First, the 2011 Syrian Revolution (see below). Second, Assad’s brutal civil war to defeat it. And third, the imperialist wars and ­rivalries that dissect the region. “After Hamas’s 7 October attack on Israel last year, the Turkish regime called for the normalisation of relations with the Syrian regime,” he said.

“This process was slow, and Syria refused to advance it because Turkey was unclear about its armed presence in Syrian territory. The Syrian regime would not negotiate because it wants a ­monopoly over the region.”

Ghayath said that, in part, the Turkish state wants a presence in Syria as a means to expand its economic and imperialist influence. But, he added, its main objective in Syria is to crush the struggle for a Kurdish nation state.

Turkish president Recep Erdogan has waged a brutal and repressive war against the Kurds, who maintain a presence in the north east of Syria, as well as parts of Turkey.

That enclave, known as Rojava, borders Turkey and is backed by Kurdish groups there. Last Sunday, HTS began to attack the Kurdish population north of Aleppo.

Ghayath outlined why HTS—and Turkey—sees a key opportunity to mount a challenge to the Assad regime.

“HTS is the most significant armed Islamist group in Syria, and is heavily backed by Turkey,” he said. “Hezbollah and Iran heavily support the Assad regime—but they are struggling with Western ­imperialism and Israel.”

Because Assad, Iran and Hezbollah are so closely bound up, an attack on any one of them effectively weakens them all.

“Russia also supports Assad’s regime, but its backing is constrained by the war it is fighting against the West in Ukraine.


How the Syrian revolution was lost
Read More

“That we are in a period of ­transition between US administrations is also a factor—the Turkish state knows that president-elect Donald Trump likes Erdogan. Looked at this way, now is a good time for Turkey to attack Assad.”

But that dynamic is contradictory, because the United States doesn’t want the chaos that would come with the fall of the Assad regime.

Ghayath said, “HTS will create a very unstable regime, so the US will likely support Assad to keep some stability for the sake of ­imperialism”. He added that “the group’s main objective is to control more of Syria”.

And that serves Erdogan’s interests because it pressures Assad into negotiating with the Turkish regime. “There could be a new agreement between Turkey, Russia and Assad, which would inevitably see Erdogan gain more influence in Syria,” he said.

“As HTS develops its attack, Russia will intervene to limit it and then negotiate with Turkey to find a new agreement.”

Russia was slow to respond to HTS’ initial offensive last week but has now launched air strikes into Aleppo.

“The winner in this event is Turkey,” said Ghayath. “That’s mostly because Syria’s international supporters are engaged elsewhere. Erdogan has found the exact strategic moment to intervene in the future of Syria. And his state will also reinforce its ability to repress the Kurds.”

Ghayath says HTS is challenging Assad’s regime but is, in effect, acting in the interest of the Turkish state. “Between 2014-24, Syrian people protested against HTS,” he explained. “The Islamist group is against civil rights and freedom of opinion, it oppresses women and is socially conservative. Like many religious-inspired groups, it is full of contradictions.”

Amid a melting pot of imperialist rivals fighting over Syria, Ghayath stressed, “There is nothing here that is in the interest of the people. There’s just bloodshed.

“We are against this war—and we demand the withdrawal of all forces from our country and to give Syrian people the right to self-determination.”
How Assad used sectarian war to break a revolution

The Syrian Revolution was part of the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011. Its target was Bashar al Assad, a dictator who has run the country since the death of his father, Hafez, in 2000.

Anger at years of poverty and dictatorship boiled over into mass protests, and by March 2011 huge forces battled against state repression. Workers and the poor played the central role in the fighting.

In response, Assad launched a brutal, sectarian civil war in a bid to drown the revolution in blood.

Ordinary people, many of whom had never fired a weapon in their lives, joined newly formed militias to fight against the regime.

The militias themselves were often formed by soldiers that had broken ranks and refused orders to fire on the people.

In an attempt at coordination, the militias together formed the Free Syrian Army. But the resistance remained fragmented, and without a centralised command. By 2014, Assad was receiving military support from Iran and Russia.

Russian president Vladimir Putin sent in airstrikes against the revolution in a bid to shore up the regime. Iran also used its influence to persuade the Lebanese resistance group Hezbollah to back Assad.

Imperial powers used that as a pretext to “intervene” in Syria. The United States threatened to bomb Assad’s regime, and then backed Kurdish forces in the north that were fighting against him too. But the West quickly abandoned the Kurds after Turkey invaded northern Syria.

Assad succeeded in crushing the revolution but at some cost. Syria was now more divided than ever, with both regional and major imperial powers vying for control.

Today, the regime controls roughly 65 percent of Syria, and even that is thanks mainly to Russian airpower.

Armed Islamist groups, such as HTS, are winning ever more territory in the north of the country. There they are in conflict with Kurdish fighters for an independent state.

Since the revolution, Ghayath said that Assad’s regime has been “militarily weak, relying on other regional powers for military and economic support”.

“The region is exhausted. There’s no electricity, water or healthcare—people’s basic needs are not being met. And this means the people have little means to survive, let alone resist.”

Assad is relying on their impoverishment to stay in power.

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