The UN's 10,000-page red alert on climate change
Author: AFP|
The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for capping global warming "well below" 2C, and 1.5C if possible / © AFP/File
In every IPCC projection for a liveable future, Earth's average surface temperature increases by 1.5C or 1.6C by around 2030 -- a decade earlier than estimates made only a few years ago.
In theory, it will be possible to cap temperature increases to below the 1.5C threshold by the end of the century, but even a temporary "overshoot" could cause irreversible damage to fragile ecosystems at the poles, in the mountains, and in coastal areas.
If countries do not improve on the emissions reduction pledges running to 2030, made under the Paris treaty, even staying under 2C will be a serious challenge. Current national policies would see Earth warm 3.2C by 2100.
- Avalanche of suffering -
Once a problem on the distant horizon, the devastating consequences of climate change have become a here-and-now reality. Nearly half the world's population -- between 3.3 and 3.6 billion -- are "very vulnerable" to global warming's deadly impacts, which are certain to get worse.
Hundreds of millions of people could be forced from their homes by rising sea levels / © AFP/File
Heatwaves so extreme as to literally be unliveable; superstorms made more deadly by a water-logged atmosphere and rising seas; drought, water shortages, more disease-carrying mosquitoes and ticks...
These and other impacts are set to become worse, and will disproportionately ravage Earth's most vulnerable populations, including indigenous peoples.
Hundreds of millions could eventually be forced from their homes by sea levels -- pushed up mainly by melting ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica -- that will continue to rise across the next century no matter how quickly humanity draws down emissions.
Even if global heating is capped at 2C, oceans could gain half-a-metre by 2100 and two metres by 2300, double the IPCC's estimate from 2019.
- Only option left -
The IPCC insists that it does not provide recommendations, only background information and policy options so decision makers can make the right choices to ensure a "liveable future" for the planet and its inhabitants.
But all roads leadiing to a 1.5C or even a 2C world "involve rapid and deep and in most cases immediate greenhouse gas emissions reductions in all sectors" -- including industry, transportation, agriculture, energy and cities.
Hitting those temperature goals will require a massive reduction in fossil fuel use, the IPCC says: 90 percent, 25 percent and 40 percent less coal, gas and oil, respectively, by 2050, and 90 percent, 40 percent and 80 percent less by 2100.
The use of coal plants that do not deploy carbon capture technology to offset some of their pollution to generate power must decline by 70 to 90 percent within eight years.
- Tipping points -
The new trio of IPCC reports emphasise as never before the danger of "tipping points", temperature thresholds in the climate system that could, once crossed, result in catastrophic and irreversible change.
By 2050, virtually all electricity generation must be carbon free if Paris temperature goals are to be reached / © AFP/File
The good news is that we seem to have pulled back from emissions scenarios from human sources that could by themselves result in a 4C or 5C world. The bad news is that "low probability/high impact" tipping point scenarios in nature could lead us there all the same.
The disintegration of ice sheets that would lift ocean levels a dozen metres or more; the melting of permafrost containing vast stores of the same greenhouse gases we are desperately trying to keep out of the atmosphere; the transformation of the Amazon basin from tropical forest to savannah -- all could be triggered by additional global warming.
Where are those triggers? Scientists are not sure, but they do know that the risk is much higher in a world that has warmed 2C above 19th-century levels than one that has warmed 1.5C.
Above 2.5C, the risk is "very high".
Author: AFP|
Update: 04.04.2022
Scientific evidence has removed any lingering doubt that human activity is "unequivocably" responsible for global warming, says the IPCC / © AFP/File
Accelerating global warming is driving a rising tide of impacts that could cause profound human misery and ecological disaster, and there is only one way to avoid catastrophe: drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Spread across 10,000 pages, these are the main takeaways from a trio of UN reports on climate change published in August 2021, February 2022 and on Monday. The three tomes -- each with its own roster of hundreds of authors -- focus on physical science, impacts and the need to adapt, and finally how to slash carbon pollution.
This will be the sixth such trilogy since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) delivered its first report in 1990 and positioned itself as the final word on the science behind global warming.
Here are five key findings from the three reports:
- Beyond a doubt -
Whatever climate sceptics might say, scientific evidence has removed any lingering doubt that human activity is "unequivocally" responsible for global warming, which has seen the planet heat up an average of 1.1 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.
The atmospheric concentration of CO2 -- the main driver of warming, emitted mainly by burning fossil fuels -- rose at least 10 times faster between 1900 and 2019 than any time in the last 800,000 years, and is at its highest in two million years.
- Bye bye 1.5C? -
The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for capping global warming "well below" 2C, and 1.5C if possible. A crescendo of deadly impacts already being felt and a slew of new science has led most countries to embrace the more ambitious aspirational goal.
But that ship may have sailed.
Scientific evidence has removed any lingering doubt that human activity is "unequivocably" responsible for global warming, says the IPCC / © AFP/File
Accelerating global warming is driving a rising tide of impacts that could cause profound human misery and ecological disaster, and there is only one way to avoid catastrophe: drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Spread across 10,000 pages, these are the main takeaways from a trio of UN reports on climate change published in August 2021, February 2022 and on Monday. The three tomes -- each with its own roster of hundreds of authors -- focus on physical science, impacts and the need to adapt, and finally how to slash carbon pollution.
This will be the sixth such trilogy since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) delivered its first report in 1990 and positioned itself as the final word on the science behind global warming.
Here are five key findings from the three reports:
- Beyond a doubt -
Whatever climate sceptics might say, scientific evidence has removed any lingering doubt that human activity is "unequivocally" responsible for global warming, which has seen the planet heat up an average of 1.1 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.
The atmospheric concentration of CO2 -- the main driver of warming, emitted mainly by burning fossil fuels -- rose at least 10 times faster between 1900 and 2019 than any time in the last 800,000 years, and is at its highest in two million years.
- Bye bye 1.5C? -
The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for capping global warming "well below" 2C, and 1.5C if possible. A crescendo of deadly impacts already being felt and a slew of new science has led most countries to embrace the more ambitious aspirational goal.
But that ship may have sailed.
The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for capping global warming "well below" 2C, and 1.5C if possible / © AFP/File
In every IPCC projection for a liveable future, Earth's average surface temperature increases by 1.5C or 1.6C by around 2030 -- a decade earlier than estimates made only a few years ago.
In theory, it will be possible to cap temperature increases to below the 1.5C threshold by the end of the century, but even a temporary "overshoot" could cause irreversible damage to fragile ecosystems at the poles, in the mountains, and in coastal areas.
If countries do not improve on the emissions reduction pledges running to 2030, made under the Paris treaty, even staying under 2C will be a serious challenge. Current national policies would see Earth warm 3.2C by 2100.
- Avalanche of suffering -
Once a problem on the distant horizon, the devastating consequences of climate change have become a here-and-now reality. Nearly half the world's population -- between 3.3 and 3.6 billion -- are "very vulnerable" to global warming's deadly impacts, which are certain to get worse.
Hundreds of millions of people could be forced from their homes by rising sea levels / © AFP/File
Heatwaves so extreme as to literally be unliveable; superstorms made more deadly by a water-logged atmosphere and rising seas; drought, water shortages, more disease-carrying mosquitoes and ticks...
These and other impacts are set to become worse, and will disproportionately ravage Earth's most vulnerable populations, including indigenous peoples.
Hundreds of millions could eventually be forced from their homes by sea levels -- pushed up mainly by melting ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica -- that will continue to rise across the next century no matter how quickly humanity draws down emissions.
Even if global heating is capped at 2C, oceans could gain half-a-metre by 2100 and two metres by 2300, double the IPCC's estimate from 2019.
- Only option left -
The IPCC insists that it does not provide recommendations, only background information and policy options so decision makers can make the right choices to ensure a "liveable future" for the planet and its inhabitants.
But all roads leadiing to a 1.5C or even a 2C world "involve rapid and deep and in most cases immediate greenhouse gas emissions reductions in all sectors" -- including industry, transportation, agriculture, energy and cities.
Hitting those temperature goals will require a massive reduction in fossil fuel use, the IPCC says: 90 percent, 25 percent and 40 percent less coal, gas and oil, respectively, by 2050, and 90 percent, 40 percent and 80 percent less by 2100.
The use of coal plants that do not deploy carbon capture technology to offset some of their pollution to generate power must decline by 70 to 90 percent within eight years.
- Tipping points -
The new trio of IPCC reports emphasise as never before the danger of "tipping points", temperature thresholds in the climate system that could, once crossed, result in catastrophic and irreversible change.
By 2050, virtually all electricity generation must be carbon free if Paris temperature goals are to be reached / © AFP/File
The good news is that we seem to have pulled back from emissions scenarios from human sources that could by themselves result in a 4C or 5C world. The bad news is that "low probability/high impact" tipping point scenarios in nature could lead us there all the same.
The disintegration of ice sheets that would lift ocean levels a dozen metres or more; the melting of permafrost containing vast stores of the same greenhouse gases we are desperately trying to keep out of the atmosphere; the transformation of the Amazon basin from tropical forest to savannah -- all could be triggered by additional global warming.
Where are those triggers? Scientists are not sure, but they do know that the risk is much higher in a world that has warmed 2C above 19th-century levels than one that has warmed 1.5C.
Above 2.5C, the risk is "very high".
Campaigners Say IPCC Report Reveals 'Bleak and Brutal Truth' About Climate Emergency
"It's not about taking our foot off the accelerator anymore—it's about slamming on the brakes," said one expert in response to latest U.N. assessment.
Mining machines work in the Garzweiler open-pit lignite mine, with wind turbines in the background in North Rhine-Westphalia, Jackerath, Germany on April 4, 2022.
(Photo: Federico Gambarini/dpa/picture alliance via Getty Images)
JESSICA CORBETT
JESSICA CORBETT
April 4, 2022
A United Nations report on the climate emergency—released Monday after negotiations spilled into overtime—sparked a fresh wave of calls for bolder and scientifically informed action to rapidly and dramatically reduce planet-heating emissions for the sake of all life on Earth.
"This monumental climate report is distressing but it is not surprising."
"How much more destruction must we witness, and how many more scientific reports will it take, before governments finally acknowledge fossil fuels as the real culprits behind the human suffering being felt across the globe?" asked Namrata Chowdhary, head of public engagement at the advocacy group 350.org.
"As we come ever closer to the tipping points for human existence, once again scientists are sounding a clear alarm: Massive cuts in emissions are unavoidable to avert the worst," Chowdhary added.
The new report, entitled Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, is the third installment from the sixth assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Earlier analyses, released in August and February, focused on physical science and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, respectively. A synthesis document is forthcoming.
The analysis was produced by 278 authors from 65 nations and is based on over 18,000 papers and nearly 60,000 comments from countries and experts. The document emphasizes the need for systemic changes globally, including decarbonizing the energy sector, electrifying transportation, shifting to more plant-based diets, and restoring key ecosystems.
Limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C is the more ambitious goal of the Paris agreement, which also has a 2°C target and has guided global climate policies and talks since it was finalized in late 2015.
"This latest IPCC report finds that global emissions are now 54% higher than they were in 1990 and starkly points out that from 2010 to 2019, heat-trapping emissions were higher than ever and are still rising globally across all major sectors," noted Kristina Dahl, a principal climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
Dahl continued:
To keep the principal goal of the Paris agreement within reach, countries will need to strengthen their national pledges and decrease global heat-trapping emissions by roughly 40% relative to 2019 levels within this decade. Because we have failed to rein in global warming emissions to date, the choices available to us are no longer ideal. In addition to deep, absolute cuts in heat-trapping emissions, some amount of these emissions will also need to be removed from the atmosphere if nations are to limit planetary warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C. Most emissions removal options, however, come with substantial, and in some cases untenable, tradeoffs. On the other hand, surpassing the 1.5°C threshold would lead to catastrophic climate impacts—with some so extreme adapting will no longer be feasible—as well as significant loss of life, property, and ecosystems in the United States and around the world. The science of climate change, its consequences, and the solutions to it could not be clearer. The ball is now in the court of world leaders and policymakers, who must act with the utmost urgency to address the global climate crisis.
Oxfam climate policy lead Nafkote Dabi declared Monday that "this IPCC report pulls no punches. The bleak and brutal truth about global warming is this: Barring action on a sweeping scale, humanity faces worsening hunger, disease, economic collapse, mass migration of people, and unbearable heat. It's not about taking our foot off the accelerator anymore—it's about slamming on the brakes. A warming planet is humanity's biggest emergency."
Describing 1.5°C as "a survival target" that "remains within our grasp, but just barely," Dabi highlighted the need for "a dramatic shift towards sustainable renewable energy." While warning that ramping up fossil fuel production in response to Russia's war on Ukraine "is shortsighted folly," she noted that the costs of extreme weather exacerbated by human-caused global heating "are piling up" and "do not hit everyone equally."
"People living in poverty are suffering first and worst," Dabi explained. "Farmers in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia have lost crops and entire herds of livestock to an exceptionally long and severe drought. Millions of people in East Africa are now on the brink of a hunger catastrophe. Meanwhile, the richest people who have massive carbon footprints are turning up the air-conditioning on their mega-yachts."
"This monumental climate report is distressing but it is not surprising," she added. "Scientists and the IPCC have been warning governments of this danger for decades. Our future lies in the decisions we make today. We cannot tackle climate change later. We must clamp down on emissions now or face more catastrophic climate disasters, season after season."
"The United States in particular must accept its role in creating the climate impacts we're experiencing right now," Raman added. "Scientists have confirmed that much more finance must urgently flow from developed to developing countries, to enable the latter to adapt and adjust to irreparable damage from climate impacts. This funding is necessary to secure the well-being of their citizens and economies. Without it, our hard-fought progress for equity, equality, rights, and justice will unravel."
"The IPCC report out today reaffirms that frontline communities, Indigenous groups, and youth groups should have a seat at the table."
Earthworks policy director Lauren Pagel similarly focused on the United States, declaring that "solutions to solve this crisis exist but political courage and policy creativity are lacking" and calling on President Joe Biden to "immediately declare a climate emergency to ramp down oil and gas extraction and limit its harmful methane pollution."
Keith Slack of EarthRights International pointed out that "as governments have failed to take meaningful climate action, Indigenous and frontline communities such as the water protectors at Line 3 in Minnesota, those in the Omkoi region of Thailand, and the Macho Piro people in the Peruvian Amazon have risen to address the crisis by building a global movement to resist climate-damaging industries and denounce the inaction of world leaders."
"The IPCC report out today reaffirms that frontline communities, Indigenous groups, and youth groups should have a seat at the table in the adoption of climate policies," said Slack, the group's director of strategy and campaigns. "The IPCC also acknowledges the important role of climate litigation in helping communities protect their rights in the midst of the climate crisis."
"The main barrier to a sustainable future at this moment is that governments are not showing the political will for an energy transition and are not listening to frontline communities and everyday citizens who are demanding change," he added.
Varshini Prakash, executive director of the U.S.-based Sunrise Movement, agreed. As she put it: "We are at a crossroads right now. Do we continue to rely on fossil fuel corporations and petrostates who are fueling war and making record profits at the expense of working families, or do we begin a mass mobilization of our government and society to transition to a renewable energy future?"
According to Prakash, "The science of the IPCC report is clear: Fossil fuels are to blame for the climate crisis, and our government's continued support for fossil fuels at home and abroad is killing us."
A United Nations report on the climate emergency—released Monday after negotiations spilled into overtime—sparked a fresh wave of calls for bolder and scientifically informed action to rapidly and dramatically reduce planet-heating emissions for the sake of all life on Earth.
"This monumental climate report is distressing but it is not surprising."
"How much more destruction must we witness, and how many more scientific reports will it take, before governments finally acknowledge fossil fuels as the real culprits behind the human suffering being felt across the globe?" asked Namrata Chowdhary, head of public engagement at the advocacy group 350.org.
"As we come ever closer to the tipping points for human existence, once again scientists are sounding a clear alarm: Massive cuts in emissions are unavoidable to avert the worst," Chowdhary added.
The new report, entitled Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, is the third installment from the sixth assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Earlier analyses, released in August and February, focused on physical science and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, respectively. A synthesis document is forthcoming.
The analysis was produced by 278 authors from 65 nations and is based on over 18,000 papers and nearly 60,000 comments from countries and experts. The document emphasizes the need for systemic changes globally, including decarbonizing the energy sector, electrifying transportation, shifting to more plant-based diets, and restoring key ecosystems.
While there is evidence of increased climate action globally—particularly with wind and solar energy and well as electric vehicles (EVs)—the IPCC report concludes that "unless there are immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, 1.5°C is beyond reach."
Limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C is the more ambitious goal of the Paris agreement, which also has a 2°C target and has guided global climate policies and talks since it was finalized in late 2015.
"This latest IPCC report finds that global emissions are now 54% higher than they were in 1990 and starkly points out that from 2010 to 2019, heat-trapping emissions were higher than ever and are still rising globally across all major sectors," noted Kristina Dahl, a principal climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
Dahl continued:
To keep the principal goal of the Paris agreement within reach, countries will need to strengthen their national pledges and decrease global heat-trapping emissions by roughly 40% relative to 2019 levels within this decade. Because we have failed to rein in global warming emissions to date, the choices available to us are no longer ideal. In addition to deep, absolute cuts in heat-trapping emissions, some amount of these emissions will also need to be removed from the atmosphere if nations are to limit planetary warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C. Most emissions removal options, however, come with substantial, and in some cases untenable, tradeoffs. On the other hand, surpassing the 1.5°C threshold would lead to catastrophic climate impacts—with some so extreme adapting will no longer be feasible—as well as significant loss of life, property, and ecosystems in the United States and around the world. The science of climate change, its consequences, and the solutions to it could not be clearer. The ball is now in the court of world leaders and policymakers, who must act with the utmost urgency to address the global climate crisis.
Oxfam climate policy lead Nafkote Dabi declared Monday that "this IPCC report pulls no punches. The bleak and brutal truth about global warming is this: Barring action on a sweeping scale, humanity faces worsening hunger, disease, economic collapse, mass migration of people, and unbearable heat. It's not about taking our foot off the accelerator anymore—it's about slamming on the brakes. A warming planet is humanity's biggest emergency."
Describing 1.5°C as "a survival target" that "remains within our grasp, but just barely," Dabi highlighted the need for "a dramatic shift towards sustainable renewable energy." While warning that ramping up fossil fuel production in response to Russia's war on Ukraine "is shortsighted folly," she noted that the costs of extreme weather exacerbated by human-caused global heating "are piling up" and "do not hit everyone equally."
"People living in poverty are suffering first and worst," Dabi explained. "Farmers in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia have lost crops and entire herds of livestock to an exceptionally long and severe drought. Millions of people in East Africa are now on the brink of a hunger catastrophe. Meanwhile, the richest people who have massive carbon footprints are turning up the air-conditioning on their mega-yachts."
"This monumental climate report is distressing but it is not surprising," she added. "Scientists and the IPCC have been warning governments of this danger for decades. Our future lies in the decisions we make today. We cannot tackle climate change later. We must clamp down on emissions now or face more catastrophic climate disasters, season after season."
The campaigner's call for action—particularly by wealthy countries most responsible for polluting the planet—was echoed by other activists and experts, including Meena Raman from Friends of the Earth Malaysia, who said that "it is a disgrace that decades of cowardly decisions by rich industrial nations have led us here, to the brink of climate catastrophe laid bare in this latest IPCC assessment report."
"The United States in particular must accept its role in creating the climate impacts we're experiencing right now," Raman added. "Scientists have confirmed that much more finance must urgently flow from developed to developing countries, to enable the latter to adapt and adjust to irreparable damage from climate impacts. This funding is necessary to secure the well-being of their citizens and economies. Without it, our hard-fought progress for equity, equality, rights, and justice will unravel."
"The IPCC report out today reaffirms that frontline communities, Indigenous groups, and youth groups should have a seat at the table."
Earthworks policy director Lauren Pagel similarly focused on the United States, declaring that "solutions to solve this crisis exist but political courage and policy creativity are lacking" and calling on President Joe Biden to "immediately declare a climate emergency to ramp down oil and gas extraction and limit its harmful methane pollution."
Keith Slack of EarthRights International pointed out that "as governments have failed to take meaningful climate action, Indigenous and frontline communities such as the water protectors at Line 3 in Minnesota, those in the Omkoi region of Thailand, and the Macho Piro people in the Peruvian Amazon have risen to address the crisis by building a global movement to resist climate-damaging industries and denounce the inaction of world leaders."
"The IPCC report out today reaffirms that frontline communities, Indigenous groups, and youth groups should have a seat at the table in the adoption of climate policies," said Slack, the group's director of strategy and campaigns. "The IPCC also acknowledges the important role of climate litigation in helping communities protect their rights in the midst of the climate crisis."
"The main barrier to a sustainable future at this moment is that governments are not showing the political will for an energy transition and are not listening to frontline communities and everyday citizens who are demanding change," he added.
Varshini Prakash, executive director of the U.S.-based Sunrise Movement, agreed. As she put it: "We are at a crossroads right now. Do we continue to rely on fossil fuel corporations and petrostates who are fueling war and making record profits at the expense of working families, or do we begin a mass mobilization of our government and society to transition to a renewable energy future?"
According to Prakash, "The science of the IPCC report is clear: Fossil fuels are to blame for the climate crisis, and our government's continued support for fossil fuels at home and abroad is killing us."
‘At a crossroads’ to a liveable future: UN ‘file of shame’ urges rapid climate action
“There is clear economic and technical potential to meet the kind of reductions that would be needed, but we are a long way from being on track in terms of what is actually going on.”
By Jonathan Wilson
E&T
Published Monday, April 4, 2022
Substantial reductions in the use of fossil fuels are needed to tackle the climate crisis, the third instalment of a crucial UN report has warned.
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) science body has today released the third part of its sixth assessment report, spelling out how to cut emissions by switching to increasingly cheap renewables and fuels such as hydrogen, as well as energy efficiency, capturing carbon and planting trees.
The first “code red” part of the report, released in August 2021, was considered essential in sounding the “death knell” for fossil fuels. The second part, released in February this year and which followed the intense climate deliberations at COP26, was billed as “an atlas of human suffering”.
Now the third and final part of the IPCC’s report starkly positions humankind as being “at a crossroads”. Meeting goals agreed by countries to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C or below 2°C to avoid the worst impacts of climate change requires rapid, deep and immediate greenhouse gas emissions cuts in all areas, it says.
UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres described the IPCC’s report as a “file of shame”. Speaking at a press conference, Guterres said: “The jury has reached a verdict and it is damning. This report is a litany of broken climate promises.
“It is a file of shame, cataloguing the empty pledges that put us firmly on track towards an unliveable world. We are on a fast track to climate disaster: major cities under water; unprecedented heatwaves; terrifying storms; widespread water shortages; the extinction of a million species of plants and animals.
“This is not fiction or exaggeration. It is what science tells us will result from our current energy policies.”
He added that investing further in fossil fuel infrastructure is “moral and economic madness”.
The report, which draws on 18,000 studies and sources, pitches scientific findings on climate change into an already heated debate over energy supplies and costs prompted by rising oil and gas prices amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Fossil fuels are naturally once again in the firing line, with coal firmly in the climate crosshairs. The report posits that in order to keep temperatures from rising above 1.5°C, global use of coal must decline by 95 per cent by 2050 compared to 2019. Oil must also must be reduced by 60 per cent and gas by 45 per cent.
Almost all electricity will need to be supplied from clean sources, such as renewables, or fossil fuels fitted with carbon capture and storage. Continuing to install technology such as coal power plants without carbon capture and storage will “lock in” unmanageable fresh emissions. The report also states that simply removing global fossil fuel subsidies could reduce emissions by between 1-10 per cent by 2030.
A meeting to agree the 63-page summary of the report for policymakers, approved in a line-by-line process involving scientists and representatives of 195 countries, overran by more than two days as delegates wrangled over the text, which is now deemed to have been approved by governments.
Finding international agreement on climate change sparks fierce debate between countries that remain heavily reliant on fossil fuel use or revenues and those most vulnerable to rising temperatures beyond 1.5°C, which they warn would be a death sentence for their nations.
Within the UK, the current energy crisis has provoked clashes over whether to speed up the shift away from oil and gas with clean heating, renewables and insulation or to boost domestic fossil fuel supplies from the North Sea or fracking. The government is due to set out its new energy strategy on Thursday with expectations of support for offshore wind and new nuclear reactors, but not cheap onshore wind.
The UN’s IPCC report finds there are still routes to curbing global warming to 1.5°C, but without immediate action it will be impossible to achieve. Report co-chair Jim Skea said: “It’s now or never if we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.”
The world is well off track to make the necessary emissions cuts, with pollution continuing to rise and pushing temperatures towards dangerous levels. There is still more private and public money flowing into fossil fuels than into climate action.
The report says the costs of solar and batteries needed for electric vehicles have plunged by 85 per cent in the last decade and their deployment has soared, while wind power has fallen by 55 per cent in price.
Some countries have also brought in effective laws and policies that have led to falls in emissions. The report also finds that the economic benefits of cutting emissions exceed the cost of the action needed, while trillions of dollars of coal, oil and gas assets could become “stranded” as the world takes action to limit global warming.
The report also highlights how consumers can be encouraged to make green choices in eating more plant-based diets; heating homes; taking up walking and cycling; driving electric cars, and moving away from excessive consumption of ‘status’ goods and services. Meanwhile, cities can be made greener, more walkable and healthier by electrifying heating and transport and creating more green spaces. In rural areas, protecting, restoring and managing forests and other natural landscapes provides the biggest opportunity of cutting emissions from land.
The IPCC’s full study, comprising the three instalments making up this sixth assessment, is the first of its kind since 2014.
The first set out a “code red” warning on what humans are doing to the planet, and the second detailed impacts of climate change and our options for – and limits to – adapting to rising temperatures.
The latest report finds that based on policies implemented up to the end of 2020, the world faces temperature rises of 3.2°C by 2100 and warming of 2.8°C, even if all the climate action pledges for the next decade are successfully delivered.
To give the world an even chance of limiting temperatures to 1.5°C, immediate action is needed, with 43 per cent cuts in greenhouse gases on 2019 levels by the end of this decade.
Emissions have to peak by between 2020 and before 2025 to limit warming to 1.5°C or 2°C, with rapid and deep reductions in the coming decades, including for methane which is produced through activities including farming and oil and gas production.
The report warns that measures to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere are “unavoidable” if the world is to reduce emissions to zero overall by the second half of the century to meet the temperature goals. These measures, which range from restoring forests to developing technology that directly captures carbon from the air, can have risks of their own.
IPCC chairman Hoesung Lee said: “We are at a crossroads. The decisions we make now can secure a liveable future. We have the tools and know-how required to limit warming.”
Commenting on the report, Guterres said: “Climate promises and plans must be turned into reality and action now. It is time to stop burning our planet and start investing in the abundant renewable energy all around us.
“We owe a debt to young people, civil society and indigenous communities for sounding the alarm and holding leaders accountable. We need to build on their work to create a grassroots movement that cannot be ignored.
“If you live in a big city, a rural area, or a small island state, if you invest in the stock market, if you care about justice, and our children’s future, I am appealing directly to you.
“Demand that renewable energy is introduced now – at speed and at scale, demand an end to coal-fired power, demand an end to all fossil fuel subsidies.”
Report author Michael Grubb, from University College London, said: “Annual emissions over the past decade were the highest in history, but there is increased evidence of climate action in some areas, remarkable progress in low-carbon technologies and at least 18 countries with sustained emission reductions.
“There is clear economic and technical potential to meet the kind of reductions that would be needed, but we are a long way from being on track in terms of what is actually going on.”
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