The US has slapped sanctions on Pakistan, its longstanding ally in the supposed war on terror, over long-range ballistic missiles. Pakistan's missiles have had India within their range, but they can't reach the US, 12,000 kilometres away. So, what threat has jolted the US out of its slumber?
Pakistan’s Shaheen III long-range missile, which has a range of 2,750 km, is capable of carrying nuclear warheads. (AFP Image)
India Today World Desk
New Delhi
,UPDATED: Dec 25, 2024
Written By: Sushim Mukul
After decades as a "major non-Nato ally" of the US, Pakistan is now facing Uncle Sam’s sanctions. The US punishment came as it claimed that Pakistan planned to develop long-range ballistic missiles that could potentially be turned nuclear-capable. Although Pakistani missiles cannot reach the US mainland, 12,000 kilometres away, they have always had India, considered an arch enemy by Islamabad, within their range. Then, why did the Pakistani missiles irk the US administration in the final few weeks of the outgoing President Joe Biden?
This reaction is severe and needs to be viewed from a historical perspective. Washington, which, under Richard Nixon, had ensured Pakistan's military support against India in the 1971 war, has punished Pakistan for what it sees as "an emerging threat to the United States".
The US sanction response suggests its concerns go far beyond India, its QUAD partner, or even itself. The US is around 12,000 km from Pakistan and the most a missile can travel is 5,500 km.
Though missiles belonging to the longest-range category, known as Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), are capable of hitting targets over 5,500 km, as per reports, Pakistan has no ICBMs. Its missile policy has been focused on short- and medium-range categories.
The US sanctions most likely have to do with Israel, which is often dubbed as the 51st state of the US.
Written By: Sushim Mukul
After decades as a "major non-Nato ally" of the US, Pakistan is now facing Uncle Sam’s sanctions. The US punishment came as it claimed that Pakistan planned to develop long-range ballistic missiles that could potentially be turned nuclear-capable. Although Pakistani missiles cannot reach the US mainland, 12,000 kilometres away, they have always had India, considered an arch enemy by Islamabad, within their range. Then, why did the Pakistani missiles irk the US administration in the final few weeks of the outgoing President Joe Biden?
This reaction is severe and needs to be viewed from a historical perspective. Washington, which, under Richard Nixon, had ensured Pakistan's military support against India in the 1971 war, has punished Pakistan for what it sees as "an emerging threat to the United States".
The US sanction response suggests its concerns go far beyond India, its QUAD partner, or even itself. The US is around 12,000 km from Pakistan and the most a missile can travel is 5,500 km.
Though missiles belonging to the longest-range category, known as Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), are capable of hitting targets over 5,500 km, as per reports, Pakistan has no ICBMs. Its missile policy has been focused on short- and medium-range categories.
The US sanctions most likely have to do with Israel, which is often dubbed as the 51st state of the US.
PAKISTAN’S LONG RANGE MISSILE UPGRADE FACED US SANCTIONS
A senior Biden administration official recently claimed that Pakistan was developing long-range ballistic missiles that could eventually be turned nuclear-capable and hit targets outside its neighbourhood, including the United States.
"Candidly, it's hard for us to see Pakistan's actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States," said Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer, adding Islamabad's conduct raised "real questions" about its intent.
If that continues, Finer added, "Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States".
Finer’s statement followed the US announcing sanctions on Pakistan’s state-owned National Development Complex and three Karachi-based associated entities for advancing the Shaheen ballistic missile program and acquiring components for long-range missile testing.
US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said that the sanctions were slapped on Islamabad through an executive order that targeted “proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery".
In effect, the sanctions would bar state-owned National Development Complex (NDC), Islamabad and three companies in Karachi from conducting business within the US and freeze any US-based assets they possess. The NDC is a defence and aerospace body responsible for developing Pakistan's missile systems, including the Shaheen and Babur series.
PAKISTAN REPLY TO HINTS AT THREATS BEYOND INDIA, FLAG EXPERTS
On Saturday, spokeswoman for Pakistan's foreign ministry Mumtaz Zahra dismissed Finer’s allegations as “unfounded”, “devoid of rationality”, and “unhelpful for the overall relationship”.
Pakistan's foreign ministry also held that its nuclear and missile programme was solely aimed at balancing power in its neighbourhood, as Islamabad's defence hinted at India.
“Pakistan has also made it abundantly clear that our strategic programme and allied capabilities are solely meant to deter and thwart a clear and visible existential threat from our neighbourhood and should not be perceived as a threat to any other country. Hence, any irrational assumption of a hostile intent from Pakistan by any other country, including the US, is perplexing as well as illogical,” said the statement from Pakistani spokeswoman Zahra.
Meanwhile, Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif defended Pakistan's nuclear and missile programme, saying the US sanctions had "no justification".
"Pakistan has absolutely no intention of our nuclear system being aggressive. It is 100% for Pakistan's defence. It's just deterrence; nothing else,” he said.
Pakistani missiles, incapable of reaching the US mainland, have always posed a threat to India, remaining within its range. But the Pakistani spokeswomen’s insistence on the “neighbourhood” with respect to the missiles, has raised alarm about Islamabad’s potential intent.
On Saturday, spokeswoman for Pakistan's foreign ministry Mumtaz Zahra dismissed Finer’s allegations as “unfounded”, “devoid of rationality”, and “unhelpful for the overall relationship”.
Pakistan's foreign ministry also held that its nuclear and missile programme was solely aimed at balancing power in its neighbourhood, as Islamabad's defence hinted at India.
“Pakistan has also made it abundantly clear that our strategic programme and allied capabilities are solely meant to deter and thwart a clear and visible existential threat from our neighbourhood and should not be perceived as a threat to any other country. Hence, any irrational assumption of a hostile intent from Pakistan by any other country, including the US, is perplexing as well as illogical,” said the statement from Pakistani spokeswoman Zahra.
Meanwhile, Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif defended Pakistan's nuclear and missile programme, saying the US sanctions had "no justification".
"Pakistan has absolutely no intention of our nuclear system being aggressive. It is 100% for Pakistan's defence. It's just deterrence; nothing else,” he said.
Pakistani missiles, incapable of reaching the US mainland, have always posed a threat to India, remaining within its range. But the Pakistani spokeswomen’s insistence on the “neighbourhood” with respect to the missiles, has raised alarm about Islamabad’s potential intent.
ISRAEL WITHIN RANGE OF PAKISTAN MISSILES GOT US TO ACT?
Reacting to Pakistan's response, Farhan Jaffrey, the deputy director of the Netherlands-based think-tank ITCT, said that Pakistani missiles extending their range beyond India “would be a problem and the international community will make things difficult for Pakistan in that case”.
“Their statement says that the Pakistani nuclear and missile programme is solely meant to balance power in its neighbourhood (hint towards India) and isn't meant for another country (hint towards Israel). But such statements are not enough when Pakistan's own former defence minister once tweeted nuclear threat against Israel,” wrote Jaffrey on X.
Back in 2016, a fake news report prompted Pakistani defence minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif to threaten Israel with nuclear weapons.
“Washington never really stopped worrying about it [Pakistan’s missile program] since the 1990s in the first place. But now this is a post October 7 world. That one event was as big as 9/11 and will prove to be as impactful on global geopolitics as 9/11,” explained Jaffrey.
The fact that Pakistan's missiles could potentially extend their range beyond India, into the Middle East (West Asia) must definitely be a factor for the US to be concerned about the security of its most important geopolitical ally. The US has had a long geopolitical footprint dominance in the region since the Cold War, thanks to Israel.
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“Their statement says that the Pakistani nuclear and missile programme is solely meant to balance power in its neighbourhood (hint towards India) and isn't meant for another country (hint towards Israel). But such statements are not enough when Pakistan's own former defence minister once tweeted nuclear threat against Israel,” wrote Jaffrey on X.
Back in 2016, a fake news report prompted Pakistani defence minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif to threaten Israel with nuclear weapons.
“Washington never really stopped worrying about it [Pakistan’s missile program] since the 1990s in the first place. But now this is a post October 7 world. That one event was as big as 9/11 and will prove to be as impactful on global geopolitics as 9/11,” explained Jaffrey.
The fact that Pakistan's missiles could potentially extend their range beyond India, into the Middle East (West Asia) must definitely be a factor for the US to be concerned about the security of its most important geopolitical ally. The US has had a long geopolitical footprint dominance in the region since the Cold War, thanks to Israel.
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What Israel's security and threats mean to the US has already been apparent with Uncle Sam getting its ally's back.
WHY LONG RANGE MISSILES AND NUKES WITH PAKISTAN NEED A CAREFUL WATCH?
The US sanctions on Pakistan amid a shifting geopolitical equation, following Hamas' surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, likely put weight into its vigilance and caution toward potential threats from Pakistan, given it claimed Islamabad was developing long-range ballistic missiles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Washington looks to be compelled to take a more aggressive stance against Islamabad, given the country's prolonged political, security and economic situation.
“We’ve warned the world about Pakistan’s destabilising agenda for decades. Is the US just going to wait for a catastrophe?,” asked Mariam Solaimankhil, who calls herself a "member of Afghanistan’s Parliament in exile".
Solaimankhil, the Taliban-critic, was a secretary of the defence committee in the Ashraf Ghani regime.
The concern for the US, according to geopolitical expert Jaffrey, is not the direct threat to its mainland but the potential for Pakistani missiles to reach Israel.
“The general reaction [to the October 7 attack] was of pure joy, as was the case for most of the Muslim world. Do you think nobody noticed that? Pakistan, along with some other Muslim countries, have consistently condemned Israel while not condemning the October 7 massacre itself,” wrote Jaffrey on X.
This probably, clubbed with Islamabad's political, economic and security instabilities, made the US pull the sanction trigger.
Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, since it first conducted tests in 1998, has grown to about 170 warheads, according to Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. Now, Pakistan, with the long range missile Shaheen III, which has a range of 2,750 km, is eyeing-to join an elite club, while putting up a deterrence.
The nuclear warheads of Pakistan could realistically grow to around 200 by 2025 at the current growth rate, said a report in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
PAKISTAN HAS THREATENED INDIA, ISRAEL, NOT RESPONSIBLE N-POWER
Pakistan possessing long-range ballistic missiles that could potentially carry nuclear warheads isn't the sole concern.
It is Pakistan.
Can the economically fragile nation, with a dysfunctional democracy where real power lies with the Army and ultra-orthodox elements are thriving, truly handle the responsibility of nuclear weapons and the power of long-range missiles? Considering its reputation for using terrorism as a state policy, serious questions arise about the security of its nuclear arsenal.
Hafeez Saeed, the 26/11 attack mastermind, warned India and Israel of being under the sight of Pakistan's nuclear weapons. Years later, in 2019, then-PM Imran Khan twice threatened India with nuclear war, first over the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A, and later in response to the Citizenship Amendment Act.
Moreover, Pakistan does not have a "no-first use" policy regarding nuclear weapons. It says its deterrence capabilities are meant to counter threats from its enemies. It actually uses nuclear warheads to blackmail India, which has a much superior conventional military.
Such apprehensions are magnified and the history of terror being a part of its statecraft, Pakistan has raised legitimate fears. The fear, rather concern aligns with former US president Barack Obama’s warning: “the single biggest threat to US security, both short-term, medium-term, and long-term, would be the possibility of a terrorist organisation obtaining a nuclear weapon”.
Pakistan possessing long-range ballistic missiles that could potentially carry nuclear warheads isn't the sole concern.
It is Pakistan.
Can the economically fragile nation, with a dysfunctional democracy where real power lies with the Army and ultra-orthodox elements are thriving, truly handle the responsibility of nuclear weapons and the power of long-range missiles? Considering its reputation for using terrorism as a state policy, serious questions arise about the security of its nuclear arsenal.
Hafeez Saeed, the 26/11 attack mastermind, warned India and Israel of being under the sight of Pakistan's nuclear weapons. Years later, in 2019, then-PM Imran Khan twice threatened India with nuclear war, first over the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A, and later in response to the Citizenship Amendment Act.
Moreover, Pakistan does not have a "no-first use" policy regarding nuclear weapons. It says its deterrence capabilities are meant to counter threats from its enemies. It actually uses nuclear warheads to blackmail India, which has a much superior conventional military.
Such apprehensions are magnified and the history of terror being a part of its statecraft, Pakistan has raised legitimate fears. The fear, rather concern aligns with former US president Barack Obama’s warning: “the single biggest threat to US security, both short-term, medium-term, and long-term, would be the possibility of a terrorist organisation obtaining a nuclear weapon”.
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