Analysis
Russia’s grisly Palm Sunday attack on the city of Sumy has focused attention on the northern Ukrainian region where Kyiv says an expected Russian spring offensive is already under way. Experts say the push into Sumy is aimed at stretching Ukraine’s defensive lines and projecting an image of Russian progress on the front – even as Moscow’s war of attrition in the east grinds to a bloody stalemate.
Issued on: 15/04/2025
By: Benjamin DODMAN
The aftermath of Russian missile strikes on Ukraine's Sumy, in which at least 35 people were killed and more than a hundred injured, on April 13, 2025. © Sofiia Gatilova, Reuters
In the weeks before a pair of ballistic Iskandar-M missiles slammed into the heart of Ukraine’s Sumy, torching cars and gutting buildings as people gathered to celebrate Palm Sunday, Vladimir Putin’s gruesome war had been inching steadily closer to the northern city known for its elegant architecture and picturesque, tree-lined streets.
Sumy, where Sunday’s successive strikes left at least 35 dead and more than a hundred wounded, lies just 18 miles from the Russian border. A regional capital, it has witnessed a steady influx of civilians seeking refuge as the fighting draws closer to their homes.
“Every day in Sumy we saw several hundred people arrive in the city looking for shelter,” said FRANCE 24’s senior reporter James André, who recently visited a centre for internally displaced people in the northern city.
“They were fleeing the constant drone attacks and artillery shells that have become a daily occurrence for villagers who live close to the border,” he added.
In the weeks before a pair of ballistic Iskandar-M missiles slammed into the heart of Ukraine’s Sumy, torching cars and gutting buildings as people gathered to celebrate Palm Sunday, Vladimir Putin’s gruesome war had been inching steadily closer to the northern city known for its elegant architecture and picturesque, tree-lined streets.
Sumy, where Sunday’s successive strikes left at least 35 dead and more than a hundred wounded, lies just 18 miles from the Russian border. A regional capital, it has witnessed a steady influx of civilians seeking refuge as the fighting draws closer to their homes.
“Every day in Sumy we saw several hundred people arrive in the city looking for shelter,” said FRANCE 24’s senior reporter James André, who recently visited a centre for internally displaced people in the northern city.
“They were fleeing the constant drone attacks and artillery shells that have become a daily occurrence for villagers who live close to the border,” he added.
Sumy, in northern Ukraine, borders Russia's western region of Kursk. © FRANCE 24
The escalated attacks come after Russia recently recaptured much of its territory in neighbouring Kursk oblast, which Ukraine attacked last year in a lightning offensive ostensibly designed to pre-empt a Russian offensive on Sumy.
“Russia is now pressing its advantage, pushing Ukrainian forces out of Kursk and carrying the momentum into Ukraine,” said André. “Sumy is the main city in their path.”
Putin’s message
Russia’s deadliest attack this year, the Sumy strikes have made a mockery of Washington’s attempts to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine – let alone the type of durable peace deal President Donald Trump had boasted he would deliver in a matter of days.
The Palm Sunday attack came two days after Putin hosted Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff for talks the Kremlin described as “extremely useful and very effective”. It came a day after the US president told reporters that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine were “going fine”.
Peter Zalmayev, director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative, spoke of an “opportunistic crime” facilitated by the city’s proximity to the border, which ensured Ukraine’s air defences had no time to respond.
The twin strikes “send a signal that Putin doesn’t really care and is beholden to no agreement, and that Trump needs to make even more concessions to the Russian side", Zalmayev said.
“They show Putin is confident there’s still more Ukrainian territory to grab and more lives to be taken before he is willing to sit down at the negotiating table,” he added.
The escalated attacks come after Russia recently recaptured much of its territory in neighbouring Kursk oblast, which Ukraine attacked last year in a lightning offensive ostensibly designed to pre-empt a Russian offensive on Sumy.
“Russia is now pressing its advantage, pushing Ukrainian forces out of Kursk and carrying the momentum into Ukraine,” said André. “Sumy is the main city in their path.”
Putin’s message
Russia’s deadliest attack this year, the Sumy strikes have made a mockery of Washington’s attempts to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine – let alone the type of durable peace deal President Donald Trump had boasted he would deliver in a matter of days.
The Palm Sunday attack came two days after Putin hosted Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff for talks the Kremlin described as “extremely useful and very effective”. It came a day after the US president told reporters that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine were “going fine”.
Peter Zalmayev, director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative, spoke of an “opportunistic crime” facilitated by the city’s proximity to the border, which ensured Ukraine’s air defences had no time to respond.
The twin strikes “send a signal that Putin doesn’t really care and is beholden to no agreement, and that Trump needs to make even more concessions to the Russian side", Zalmayev said.
“They show Putin is confident there’s still more Ukrainian territory to grab and more lives to be taken before he is willing to sit down at the negotiating table,” he added.
Ukrainian officials have been warning for weeks that Russia is poised to launch a new offensive against Sumy and the neighbouring Kharkiv oblast to strengthen its hand in future negotiations.
On April 9, days after President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russian forces were mustering for a new push into the northeastern regions, Ukraine's commander in chief, General Oleksandr Syrskiy, stated that the offensive had “effectively already begun”.
“For several days, almost a week, we have observed almost a doubling of the number of enemy attacks in all main directions,” Syrskiy said in an interview published by the Ukrainian newspaper LB.ua.
Later that day, Zelensky claimed more than 67,000 Russian soldiers deployed in the Kursk operation had been “relocated for an attack on Sumy”.
But neither the scope nor the scale of the Russian push was immediately clear.
When visiting Kursk in March, Putin instructed military commanders to set up a buffer zone along the border to prevent further Ukrainian incursions. Experts say Russia could be tempted to push further into Ukraine while Kyiv’s troops are on the back foot.
“It’s too early to say whether the Russians want to seize swaths of Sumy region or establish a buffer zone at the border to stave off a repeat of the Kursk offensive,” said retired French general Jérôme Pellistrandi, chief editor of the monthly review Défense nationale.
“Either way, the Russians won’t miss a tactical opportunity to seize territory and wear down Ukraine’s defences,” he added.
On April 9, days after President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russian forces were mustering for a new push into the northeastern regions, Ukraine's commander in chief, General Oleksandr Syrskiy, stated that the offensive had “effectively already begun”.
“For several days, almost a week, we have observed almost a doubling of the number of enemy attacks in all main directions,” Syrskiy said in an interview published by the Ukrainian newspaper LB.ua.
Later that day, Zelensky claimed more than 67,000 Russian soldiers deployed in the Kursk operation had been “relocated for an attack on Sumy”.
But neither the scope nor the scale of the Russian push was immediately clear.
When visiting Kursk in March, Putin instructed military commanders to set up a buffer zone along the border to prevent further Ukrainian incursions. Experts say Russia could be tempted to push further into Ukraine while Kyiv’s troops are on the back foot.
“It’s too early to say whether the Russians want to seize swaths of Sumy region or establish a buffer zone at the border to stave off a repeat of the Kursk offensive,” said retired French general Jérôme Pellistrandi, chief editor of the monthly review Défense nationale.
“Either way, the Russians won’t miss a tactical opportunity to seize territory and wear down Ukraine’s defences,” he added.
‘No reason for panic’
Less than a year after Russia suffered its first major territorial incursion since World War II, Moscow’s forces have pushed Ukrainian troops out of all but 50 square kilometres of Kursk region, according to data from the Institute for the Study of War, which has mapped the conflict and published daily updates since the start of the war.
Pushing into neighbouring Sumy region, Moscow's army has also captured several border settlements and controls around 95 square kilometres in the Ukrainian oblast – up from virtually nothing at the start of 2025.
“The speed with which Russia has recaptured Kursk has been quite surprising, particularly when compared with the stalemate elsewhere,” said Veronika Poniscjakova, a Ukraine war expert at the University of Portsmouth in Britain. “So it’s fair to say they have the momentum there and could be tempted to push even further.”
Some Ukrainian sources on the ground, however, have played down the reports of Russian progress.
“There’s no reason for panic over Sumy,” Maksym Zhorin, deputy commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade, wrote in a Telegram post on April 12. “Enemy sabotage groups and border attacks have been happening there constantly. The region is shelled regularly – that’s nothing new.”
Zhorin claimed that the situation had not fundamentally changed, adding: “The enemy hasn’t made any real gains in this direction. Our forces have long since learned how to counter them.”
Ukrainian security officers work at the site of the Palm Sunday missile strikes on Sumy. © Oleg Voronenko, AFP
In its April 13 update on the conflict, the ISW also said Russia had failed to make further gains in Sumy region despite continuing its offensive operations. It suggested Moscow’s primary objective in the northern region was to “create defensible buffer zones (...) and approach to within tube artillery range of Sumy City”.
An earlier assessment by the war monitor, published on April 9, said Russian units along the border were “unlikely to launch a major offensive on Sumy without substantial reinforcements”.
What has changed, argued Zhorin, is Russia’s broader strategy. He said Moscow’s troops were “trying to stretch the frontline – redirecting forces, opening up new zones of contact".
“There are more important parts of the front line that Russia is likely to continue focusing on,” added Poniscjakova. “But in so far as the Sumy attacks help stretch Ukrainian lines, they can indeed be considered a significant element in Russia’s spring offensive.”
In its April 13 update on the conflict, the ISW also said Russia had failed to make further gains in Sumy region despite continuing its offensive operations. It suggested Moscow’s primary objective in the northern region was to “create defensible buffer zones (...) and approach to within tube artillery range of Sumy City”.
An earlier assessment by the war monitor, published on April 9, said Russian units along the border were “unlikely to launch a major offensive on Sumy without substantial reinforcements”.
What has changed, argued Zhorin, is Russia’s broader strategy. He said Moscow’s troops were “trying to stretch the frontline – redirecting forces, opening up new zones of contact".
“There are more important parts of the front line that Russia is likely to continue focusing on,” added Poniscjakova. “But in so far as the Sumy attacks help stretch Ukrainian lines, they can indeed be considered a significant element in Russia’s spring offensive.”
‘Active defence’
True to form, Kyiv has responded to Russia’s attacks with cross-border incursions of its own, recently launching operations near the junction of the Kursk and Belgorod oblasts in western Russia.
Zelensky confirmed last week that Ukrainian units were operating in Russia’s Belgorod, where Moscow reported land attacks in March, while also maintaining a bridgehead in Kursk.
“We continue to conduct active operations in the border areas on the enemy's territory, and this is absolutely right – the war must return to where it came from,” the Ukrainian leader added.
According to the DeepState military blog, which is considered close to Ukraine's army, Kyiv’s troops have gained a foothold inside the Russian region, around the border villages of Demidovka and Popivka.
As with the Kursk offensive last year, Ukrainian commanders say the goal is to divert Russian forces and pre-empt attacks on Ukrainian soil.
Read moreWhy Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has failed to distract Russia from Donbas push
“We understand that after Russia constantly brings in additional forces to regroup its positions and replenish losses, the risks for Sumy and its city centre grow,” Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Musiyenko said in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty last week.
Musiyenko described Ukrainian cross-border incursions as “preventive actions to prevent the enemy from rapidly launching their offensive operations.” He added: “This is why we speak of active defence – to stop the enemy from quickly advancing into Ukrainian territory and minimising the risks to the Sumy region.”
Deadlock
Even as they warn of the threat to Sumy and neighbouring Kharkiv, Ukrainian officials have cautioned that they still expect the main thrust of Russia’s spring offensive to bear down on key battleground areas further east.
In an interview with Reuters last week, senior Ukrainian official Pavlo Palisa said he expected Russia to focus its offensive push on the strategic eastern city of Pokrovsk, which Russian forces have been trying to encircle for the past year.
Moscow’s troops have advanced less than 50 kilometres in the Pokrovsk area over the past year, according to the ISW, which registered a slowdown in Russian advances across the front line this winter. This has led several Russian military bloggers to lament a strategy of securing marginal gains at a tremendous cost both in lives and material.
In an April 12 post on Telegram, blogger “Philologist in Ambush”, a former instructor for Storm-Z units made up of convicts, blasted Russian commanders for seeking to “grind” down Ukraine’s defences by deploying poorly trained, ill-equipped infantry units that incur massive losses.
FRANCE 24 in Ukraine: 'When leaders talk about a ceasefire, soldiers don't believe it at all'
06:29© France 24
“Will they continue pushing for Pokrovsk? Yes, likely,” said Poniscjakova. “But they’ve been trying for a year now and the situation is largely deadlocked.”
In fact, she added, “with the exception of Kursk, the entire front line has been in a state of deadlock, with neither side making any kind of significant operational advance".
Fooling Trump
“The Russians are still inching forward, but the fact is Ukraine is holding on, however high the cost,” added Pellistrandi.
The retired general said Ukraine’s army is now in a better shape than it was last autumn, at the height of Russia’s territorial advances in the east, with fewer shortages of artillery pieces.
“They’ve also built up stronger defences, though that necessarily implies that they have largely given up on hopes of recapturing lost territory – at least militarily,” he said.
“On the Russian side, meanwhile, the armaments industry is in full swing and they’ve launched a new recruitment drive. And yet they still can’t secure a decisive breakthrough, the kind of tactical victory that would force Ukraine to fall back,” he added. “It's a problem for Putin, who won’t have a lot to show for at his annual May 9 Victory Day parade.”
A cap with a Ukrainian flag lies on the ground after Russia's Palm Sunday missile attack on Sumy. © Volodymyr Hordiienko, AP
That is where Kursk and Sumy present an opportunity for the Kremlin, eager to play up its advantage on the battlefield and persuade the Trump administration it is on the verge of a decisive win.
“We can definitely say this war is not just about the fighting, but also about the perceptions of who has the upper hand – both domestically and abroad,” said Poniscjakova. “It’s especially the case with the United States, who are going to play a major role in any kind of negotiation.”
Russian propaganda has been in full drive during the recapture of territory seized by Ukraine in Kursk region, sometimes shaping the White House’s own narrative of events. Trump notably picked up on the Kremlin’s unverified claim that Ukrainian forces had been encircled in Kursk, allowing Putin to suggest he might spare them in a goodwill gesture.
Likewise, the attacks on Sumy “indicate that Russia is trying to make a point to the United States, claiming it is the winning side and that it therefore should not be the one making any concessions", said Poniscjakova. “And it seems the Americans may well be listening.”
That is where Kursk and Sumy present an opportunity for the Kremlin, eager to play up its advantage on the battlefield and persuade the Trump administration it is on the verge of a decisive win.
“We can definitely say this war is not just about the fighting, but also about the perceptions of who has the upper hand – both domestically and abroad,” said Poniscjakova. “It’s especially the case with the United States, who are going to play a major role in any kind of negotiation.”
Russian propaganda has been in full drive during the recapture of territory seized by Ukraine in Kursk region, sometimes shaping the White House’s own narrative of events. Trump notably picked up on the Kremlin’s unverified claim that Ukrainian forces had been encircled in Kursk, allowing Putin to suggest he might spare them in a goodwill gesture.
Likewise, the attacks on Sumy “indicate that Russia is trying to make a point to the United States, claiming it is the winning side and that it therefore should not be the one making any concessions", said Poniscjakova. “And it seems the Americans may well be listening.”
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