The Not-So-Secret Israeli Strategy: This is the Real Gaza Plan

Ramzy Baroud

July 17, 2026

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Here is the bottom line: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no intention of leaving Gaza, either before Israel’s general elections—likely to be held in October—or after. Conceding an inch from the roughly 70 percent of the territory his army currently occupies in Gaza will be considered a weakness by the majority of Israeli voters and would result in an open revolt within his extremist coalition.

He has made his intentions clear time and again. Recent statements by Israel’s political leadership have only reinforced that reality, with officials insisting that Israel must maintain indefinite military dominance over the Strip and explicitly rejecting any framework that requires a full withdrawal of troops. To Netanyahu, the military footprint in Gaza is a permanent fixture, not a temporary bargaining chip.

Some may argue that Netanyahu’s statements are merely political fodder aimed at prolonging his career and avoiding the disastrous outcomes awaiting him—in terms of state investigations and court trials—should he be ejected from power. However, his extremist policies throughout his entire career at the helm of Israeli politics say otherwise. There has never been a period in Netanyahu’s history in which he showed a genuine willingness to compromise or engage in an authentic political process with the Palestinians.

This reduces the point of the Washington-led Board of Peace and its subsequent administrative bodies to near irrelevance. These entities—including the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) and a multinational International Stabilization Force (ISF)—were supposedly assembled with the sole aim of managing a transitional phase, delivering humanitarian aid, and deploying a peacekeeping buffer to facilitate a gradual Israeli military withdrawal.

It seems that two separate, irreconcilable tracks are taking shape. One is the Israeli track of continued war, entrenched military occupation, and prolonged genocide. The other is an international track, controlled firmly by Washington, aimed largely at finding alternative ways to manage Gaza on behalf of Israel.

Yet even with its obvious limitations, the Gaza plan’s first phase theoretically promises a phased Israeli military repositioning, a sustainable ceasefire, a massive influx of reconstruction aid, and the gradual handover of civil administration to a non-factional Palestinian authority.

Little of that has actually been delivered. While the United States and international envoys claim the ceasefire hinges on disarmament, Israel has used the diplomatic deadlock to advance its troops further into the Strip rather than withdrawing them. Aid remains choked at the borders, and the promised reconstruction has not even begun.

Indirect talks are ongoing in Cairo, though it seems that only Palestinians are being held accountable or expected to carry out heavy concessions. Moreover, after 19 years of Hamas governing Gaza, the movement announced on July 6 that it has officially dissolved the Emergency Committee that has been administering the Strip. The movement declared its full readiness to transfer governance to the National Committee, intended to administer Gaza under the framework of the US-brokered plan.

On paper, this suggests that a political transition is finally underway. In reality, no such transition is taking place.

Israel is actively preventing this technocratic government from assuming any real duties. Rather than facilitating a civil handover, the Israeli political security cabinet has completely dismissed the transition. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar openly labeled the move a “trick,” arguing that a technocratic administration would merely be responsible for municipal tasks like garbage collection while allowing resistance networks to persist.

Instead, Israel’s military strategy continues to fuel conditions that undermine any possibility of stabilizing the devastated Strip. Its objective is not merely to reject an alternative Palestinian administration, but to ensure that no functioning Palestinian governing authority can emerge at all. By doing so, Tel Aviv wants to create a permanent governance vacuum, sowing further chaos and fragmentation.

If no alternative Palestinian political body is permitted to stabilize Gaza, the default collapse will inevitably force local factions to reassert control over daily survival, thus giving Israel yet more pretenses to exact more punishment on a helpless population.

Following the Hamas political move, Israel simply responded with its standard currency: immediate violence. This was starkly illustrated on July 9, when Israeli forces carried out a targeted airstrike on a vehicle in Gaza City in a failed attempt to assassinate Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem. Though the assassination attempt failed, the strike sent a clear message that Israel has no intention of respecting political transformations or ceasefires.

While no houses are being built, no schools are being constructed, and no hospitals are being revived, the only numbers that keep growing are those of the dead and wounded. The human cost has reached unfathomable proportions: the Palestinian death toll in Gaza has surpassed 73,000, with the number of wounded exceeding 173,200. Tragically, these numbers continue to climb daily: over 1,098 Palestinians have been killed since the so-called ceasefire framework was initially agreed upon, proving that the truce exists only in media rhetoric, not on the ground.

This leaves us with a single, inescapable conclusion: the political track aimed at reconstructing Gaza and ending the Israeli military presence has little bearing on the grim realities unfolding on the ground.

The only way out is a stronger, independent international will that wrestles the future of Gaza from the grip of Netanyahu, translating political agreements into immediate humanitarian outcomes and a definitive end to the Israeli occupation.

Until Israel is compelled to relinquish its military control over Gaza, every new committee, reconstruction mechanism, or diplomatic initiative risks becoming little more than political theater.

Dr. Ramzy Baroud is a journalist, author, and the editor of The Palestine Chronicle. He is the author of six books. His new book, Before the Flood: A Gaza Family Memoir Across Three Generations of Colonial Invasion, Occupation and War in Palestine was published by Seven Stories Press. His other books include “Our Vision for Liberation,” “My Father was a Freedom Fighter,” and “The Last Earth.”  Baroud is a Non-resident Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA). His website is www.ramzybaroud.net    

Shocking Revelations Out of West Antarctica

Robert Hunziker

 July 17, 2026

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Image by Cassie Matias.

It’s mid-winter but a large area of West Antarctica that should be frozen solid is not frozen. What’s up?

Antarctica is the coldest spot on the planet where the average winter temperature is -34.4°C (-30°F), but it does vary by region. For example, inland locations like the South Pole average around -60°C (-76°F), while coastal areas such as the Antarctic Peninsula range between -12°C and -20°C (10°F to -4°F).

The area recently experienced a winter heatwave, but that has passed. Winter heatwaves happen on occasion, but the ice always, always, always refreezes for as long as anybody can remember. But satellite photos d/d July 12, 2026, by the University of Colorado Boulder’s Snow and Ice Data Center show a large portion of West Antarctica 150,000 square miles that’s typically frozen this time of year shockingly ice free! Something is wrong.

Scientists Identify Thin Vulnerability of West Antarctica

Of even more concern than failure of refreezing in the dead of winter, the following headline appears in Space Daily d/d June 20, 2026 and serves as a shocking backdrop to the recent news: Scientists say the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Could Collapse With Very Little Additional Warming and the Four Metres of Sea Level Rise that Would Follow Cannot be Stopped Once it Begins.

“A modelling study published in Communications Earth & Environment in June 2025 found that West Antarctic Ice Sheet could begin an irreversible collapse at ocean temperatures between zero and 0.25°C above current levels — meaning the threshold may have already been reached,” Ibid.

Still, nobody really knows for sure how soon or how far sea levels will rise, but the direction is known. It’s up!

That was then. Today, parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet don’t refreeze. Hmm.

Civilization is currently living through break-neck climate change. It’s reflected in erratic climate system behavior. The entire global system has gone bonkers, unpredictable, ecosystems threatened everywhere. As it happens, science has isolated the main culprit as too much heat; it’s excessive greenhouse gas emissions CO2 from burning fossil fuels.

CO2 has been on a rampage as oil and gas companies crank up production.

Based Upon AI Analyses, July 2026: “Carbon dioxide is the main driver of climate change. It traps heat, so the more of it in the air, the warmer the planet runs, which is why its concentration is the most closely watched number in climate science. Almost everyone has seen the chart of that number climbing since the 1950s.But the line is not just going up, it is getting steeper. The air took on more CO2 in the last decade than in any 10-year stretch since record-keeping began in 1959, and this past May the monthly average at Mauna Loa hit 432 parts per million, the highest ever measured.”

It’s hard for scientists to accept global warming so pervasive, so unexpected that it halts Antarctic refreezing in the dead of winter. No scientific models predicted this.

As a prelude, the past couple of years science did provide clues. An article in Inside Ecology d/d May 11, 2026 describes the background: Antarctic Sea Ice Defied Global Warming for Decades – Now Hidden Ocean Heat is Breaking Through, to wit: “For decades, Antarctica seemed to defy global warming. Since satellites began monitoring the poles in the late 1970s, the seasonal growth and retreat of Antarctic sea ice – frozen seawater that expands around the continent each winter – appeared remarkably resilient. It was often described as the ‘heartbeat of the planet.”

The “one-in-3.5 million” Happenstance

“Since 2015 Antarctic sea ice has declined sharply. In 2023, winter sea ice extent fell to record lows — so far below the long-term average that scientists considered it an event with roughly a one-in-3.5 million probability of occurring by chance,” Ibid.

A “one-in-3.5 million” proposition demands attention. Those odds demand analysis, a wake-up call, an omen of change, and sure enough, three years later the strangest thing happens, refreeze fails in a region of brutally cold West Antarctica.

There are other omens, e.g., Hektoria Glacier (Antarctica) retreated 8 kilometers (5 miles) in only two months; one-half of the structure collapsing in record time. This is the fastest glacier collapse ever, and the message to the world is very clear: Global Warming looks like it’s ahead of schedule. (Antarctica Just Saw the Fastest Glacier Collapse Ever Recorded, ScienceDaily d/d February 26, 2026)

Another early warning signal: “Researchers have discovered dozens of new methane seeps littering the ocean floor in the Ross Sea coastal region of Antarctica, raising concerns of an unknown positive climate feedback loop that could accelerate global warming,” a decidedly negative configuration. (Methane Leaks Multiplying Beneath Antarctic Ocean Spark Fears of Climate Doom Loop, LiveScience d/d Oct. 15, 2025)

And more forewarnings: Polar scientists have been warning, with more fervor than ever before, of a rapidly deteriorating Antarctica, especially since 2024. Their warnings via press releases address the public at large; as politicians, especially Americans, care less. Major warnings by scientists since 2024: (1) August 2024 the 11^th Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research attended by 1,500 scientists: Gino Casassa, glaciologist head of Chilean Antarctic Institute claimed: “Based upon current trends, sea levels will be up 13’ by 21oo.” This is the first time a high-level scientist has made such an alarming forecast. (2) November 2024, 450 polar scientists called an emergency meeting in Australia to make a public announcement: “If we don’t act, and quickly, the melting of Antarctica ice could cause catastrophic sea level rise around the globe within our lifetimes.” This is the first time polar scientists have predicted ‘catastrophic sea level rise with our lifetimes.’ (3) A February 2025 study in Nature: Worldwide Glacier Meltdown Underway, a 20-year study by 35 international teams identified terrestrial glacier losses that are larger than Greenland and Antarctica but not found in scientific models of sea level rise, yet described “staggering loses” of terrestrial glacier systems.

The West Antarctic downturn over the past decade was not predicted by climate models. This means the decline is especially concerning and suggest things may be unfolding faster than scientific models can capture.

Accordingly, that matters a lot because sea ice reflects sunlight back into space, one of the planet’s major albedo (reflective) sources that helps keep the climate system stable and it helps drive ocean currents that lock away heat and carbon deep underwater. This sudden change will bring serious far-reaching consequences for the climate system and for Antarctica’s ecosystems, already starting to show the impact.

Why should anybody care if Antarctic sea ice does not refreeze? Most people will surely shake it off as one more issue not to worry about today. And that is understandable. But when the dashboard of their cars blink red, they freak out, gotta find a service station immediately or the engine might freeze-up, who knows what’s going on?

In similar fashion, Antarctica is the planet’s dashboard flashing red, nonstop.

The failure of the nations of the world to cut CO2 emissions, as agreed by 195 countries at Paris 2015, cannot be talked about enough. Only a couple of countries, out of 195 signatories, are tracking Paris 2015 commitments to cut CO2 emissions by 2030. They agreed to cut CO2 emissions by 2030 via Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the core climate action plans submitted by countries under the 2015 Paris Agreement. They collectively (to a person, 195 delegates) recognized excessive fossil fuel emissions as an existential risk to society in 2015. That remains but it’s much worse now with global heat thriving like never before on record-setting CO2 emissions.

Where are they?

Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.