Friday, March 13, 2026

War Over Law: Europe’s Unforced Errors Over The Use Of Force In Iran – OpEd
 ECFR
By Anthony Dworkin

In their responses to the war in Iran, many European leaders appear concerned to adjust to the unabashed international power politics unleashed by President Donald Trump. But their apparent discarding of the principle of non-aggression may only store up trouble for the future.

As America and Israel launched their war of choice, not only was Europe sidelined but its leaders’ responses have proved confused and divided. They have largely declined to make clear that the UN Charter’s rules on the use of force still provide an essential foundation for international peace and security—a fundamental question raised by the military campaign.

European differences over policy towards Israel are nothing new. But, in this case, the divergences and ambiguities in the positions of European leaders seem to reveal a more profound uncertainty. They testify to a loss of faith in a principle of international order that Europeans have traditionally seen as fundamental. And this has come at precisely the moment when the likely harms to European interests of an unnecessary war are most obvious.

There is little question that the US and Israeli war against Iran is an unlawful act of aggression. The UN Charter prohibits the use of force except when authorised by the Security Council or in cases of self-defence against an armed attack. There is overwhelming agreementamong legal scholars that neither of those applies in this case. No European leader has argued the war is lawful, and the implausibility of Trump’s statements about the risk of imminent attack by Iran suggest he launched it as a response to Iranian defiance rather than any immediate threat. But many European statements have glossed over American and Israeli responsibility for a prohibited use of force. The statement issued by high representative Kaja Kallas on behalf of the EU’s member states called for “full respect of international law, including the principles of the United Nations Charter”. It does not acknowledge the overwhelming consensus in Europe that the attack contravened the charter. In this way, and by focusing its criticism on Iran, the statement failed to uphold the principles it purported to endorse.


Even more worryingly, several European leaders have implied that a realistic view of global politics requires a move away from fully supporting the prohibition on the use of force except for genuine self-defence. Most prominently, German chancellor Friedrich Merz has backed the idea that international law should not be allowed to stand in the way of necessary and justified action against Iran. After America and Israel began their attacks in February, Merz said it was inappropriate to lecture partners and allies when “we share many of their goals without actually being able to achieve them ourselves”. In a television interview, he said it was necessary to ask “what should we do when international law clearly reaches its limits” in respect of an Iranian regime that did not respect international law itself.

In her speech to the EU ambassadors conference, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen coupled a call to “see the world as it actually is today” with the statement that there should be no tears shed for the Iranian regime and that the people of Iran deserved freedom, dignity and self-determination. In slightly coded language, such comments give weight to the idea that the erosion of the rules-based order means legal technicalities can be at odds with justified goals. Going further, Dutch foreign minister Tom Berendsen said that “international law isn’t the only framework you can apply to this situation. You also have to be realistic, given the murderous nature of the Iranian regime.” Belgian foreign secretary Maxime Prévot suggested that the extra-legal nature of the war needed to be “weighed against the principle of reality” and that the attack on Iran was justified for global security. In a more nuanced way, French president Emmanuel Macron said that Iran bore primary responsibility for the war but that the US-Israeli action took place outside international law. This framing nevertheless suggested the prohibition on the use of force was a constraint that stood in the way of an operation that was at least understandable, if not justified.


At the other end of the spectrum, Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez has forthrightly argued the attack on Iran undermines a core principle of the international system that remains important and valuable. He saidSpain rejected “the unilateral military action by the United States and Israel, which represents an escalation and contributes to a more uncertain and hostile international order.” Norway’s government has also emphasised the illegality of the war, and British prime minister Keir Starmer initially refused to allow the use of British bases for offensive action (though he has since modified his position to allow strikes in defence of regional partners). He linked his stance to the lack of a thought-through plan for the campaign and the impossibility of effecting regime change from the air. But Starmer has been fiercely attacked by the opposition Conservative Party, whose leader, Kemi Badenoch, argued that “international law will have failed” if it protected a despotic regime.

Of course, some European positioning on the war is likely to reflect a desire to avoid antagonising Trump to influence his policies on Russia’s war in Ukraine. But there is little to suggest that Europe’s courting of Trump has led to any long-term or sustainable change in his position on Ukraine, which seems to continually default back to the idea that Ukraine must make concessions that will win Russia’s approval. Moreover, Europe’s downplaying of international law in relation to Iran undermines any principled stance about the illegality of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. And the language that Europeans have used—implying that restrictions on the use of force are in tension with the realities of today’s world—goes further than merely muted criticism of US and Israeli policies.

There are legitimate questions about how far Europe’s traditional support for a rules-based international system should be modified for an age of geopolitical and geoeconomic competition. But this does not mean that Europe should lose faith in the core principle of non-aggression. Indeed, the first two weeks of the war have shown how damaging this unnecessary conflict is likely to be for European interests—from the spike in energy prices, and disruption to global trade more widely, to the danger to European citizens and territory and the risk of a wave of migration if disorder spreads within Iran. The harms, escalating costs and unintended consequences that war brings are evident.

Indeed, it is notable that some of the political figures who were most outspoken in suggesting a realistic view of national or European interests should take precedence over international law, such as Merz and Badenoch, have subsequently voiced greater reservations about the conflict. Rather than projecting a loss of faith in their values that can only weaken Europe’s standing, European leaders should reaffirm the need to end the conflict as quickly as possible. In the future, rejecting wars of choice as a tool of great power politics will place them in stronger stead for protecting the full range of European interests.About the author: Anthony Dworkin is senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He leads the organisation’s work in the areas of human rights, democracy, and justice.

Source: This article was published by ECFR

ECFR

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is an award-winning international think-tank that aims to conduct cutting-edge independent research on European foreign and security policy and to provide a safe meeting space for decision-makers, activists and influencers to share ideas. We build coalitions for change at the European level and promote informed debate about Europe’s role in the world.
Strikes Hit Iranian Regime Nuclear Site While Gulf States Face Massive Drone Barrage – OpEd


Airstrikes in Tehran, Iran. Credit: PMOI

March 13, 2026 
By Sadegh Pashm-Foroush


March 12, 2026, marked the thirteenth day of the conflict between the Iranian regime, the United States, and Israel. The war, which began on February 28, 2026, saw the death of the regime’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

Faced with mounting domestic pressure and crippling infrastructure destruction, the regime previously issued direct shoot-to-kill orders against protesters while enforcing a near-total internet blackout. Now, as the conflict enters its 13th day, the new supreme leader has voiced unprecedented fears of an explosive public uprising, even as the regime drastically intensifies its regional attacks and endures fresh waves of devastating airstrikes on its military and nuclear facilities.

Roundup of key events on day 13New regime supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first written statements, expressing deep concern over explosive public anger while vowing to continue the war.
A new wave of intense US and Israeli airstrikes targeted several Iranian cities, including Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan, and Kashan, as well as the “Taleghan” nuclear facility in Parchin.

The Iranian regime expanded and fortified street checkpoints, anticipating domestic unrest and further Israeli drone strikes.

A massive wave of regime drones and missiles targeted multiple Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain.

Regime proxy forces suffered heavy casualties in Iraq, with over 260 members of the PMF killed, wounded, or missing following heavy airstrikes.

The regime escalated its maritime attacks, targeting multiple commercial ships and oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.

The Indian Prime Minister spoke with the regime’s president to urge dialogue, while the regime’s foreign ministry condemned a new UN Security Council resolution.

New supreme leader expresses fear of public uprising and vows revenge

In his first written remarks since taking power, the regime’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, expressed explicit concern about the explosive anger of the Iranian people. Pleading for internal cohesion, he stated that “unity among all individuals and strata of the nation must not be damaged.”

Framing the regime’s actions as an “effective and regret-inducing defense,” Mojtaba Khamenei insisted that the regime must continue using the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as leverage. He also threatened that “opening other fronts will take place if the state of war continues.” Relying heavily on regional proxy groups to sustain the regime’s survival, he described the “resistance front” as the regime’s “best friends,” adding that Hezbollah and Iraqi proxy forces have come to their aid. Concluding his message, he vowed that the regime “will not give up on revenge.”

Fresh wave of airstrikes targets multiple Iranian cities and nuclear site

On the night of the 12th and into the early hours of Day 13, a widespread new wave of airstrikes hit multiple cities across Iran. Citizen reports indicated that Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan, Kashan, and surrounding areas were heavily targeted. Around 4:00 AM on March 12, successive explosions were heard in Parand, Karaj, and Kashan. Residents in Kashan reported multiple blasts that shook homes, accompanied by the sounds of fighter jets overhead.

Explosions were also reported in Arak around 4:00 AM, alongside strikes on the Hasanabad Fashafuyeh and Parand industrial estates. In Ahvaz, multiple explosions and the sound of fighter jets were reported around 6:50 AM. Additionally, a drone strike hit a vehicle on Tehran’s Chamran Highway at approximately 11:30 PM the previous night, completely incinerating the car before firefighters could arrive.

Simultaneously, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) released videos announcing it had targeted the regime’s large military transport aircraft. The Israeli military also declared the start of a “massive wave of attacks” against the regime’s infrastructure in Tehran. Crucially, the Israeli army announced it had struck a nuclear facility near Tehran known as the “Taleghan Complex” in Parchin, which the regime has historically used for the advancement of its nuclear weapons capabilities.

Regime expands street checkpoints amid security fears

Fearing a popular uprising and ongoing military strikes, the Iranian regime has drastically expanded its security checkpoints in the streets. According to a Telegram channel affiliated with the IRGC’s Fars News Agency, a large number of regime loyalists have volunteered to man the checkpoints following Israeli drone strikes on several existing inspection stations. A Basij official announced a change in the street formation of these checkpoints, claiming that a “new mechanism” has been implemented to counter what the regime calls “the enemy’s design to make neighborhoods unsafe.”
Heavy casualties among regime proxy forces in Iraq

The regime’s proxy networks suffered massive losses in Iraq on Thursday. Heavy airstrikes targeted positions of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in the Akashat area in western Iraq, as well as near the city of Kirkuk. Asharq Al-Awsat reported that the strikes hit three bases belonging to the 19th Brigade of the PMF, including a military center, the second battalion, and a support unit. Initial figures indicate staggering casualties: 99 killed, 43 missing, and 123 wounded, with many suffering severe injuries.
Attacks escalate in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz

The Iranian regime has dramatically escalated its efforts to disrupt global shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. According to Al Arabiya, the regime has been using explosive boats and drones to terrorize the strategic waterway. Maritime authorities confirmed that at least two attacks on oil tankers have been carried out by unmanned boats since the war began.


On Thursday, the IRGC explicitly claimed responsibility for an attack on a Marshall Islands-flagged ship named “Safe Sea,” alleging the vessel was American-owned and part of US military assets in the northern Persian Gulf. The IRGC stated the ship was attacked for “ignoring warnings.” The US military has yet to comment on this specific incident.

Additionally, an Iraqi security official told Reuters that explosive boats linked to the Iranian regime attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters, causing fires on board. Security and port authorities confirmed that projectiles hit three commercial ships in the Persian Gulf on Thursday, resulting in the death of one crew member. The government of Thailand also summoned the Iranian regime’s ambassador in Bangkok after a Thai-flagged cargo ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz.
Gulf nations and regional targets intercept massive wave of regime missiles and drones

The Iranian regime launched a massive, coordinated barrage of missiles and drones against neighboring Arab nations.Saudi Arabia: The Saudi Defense Ministry intercepted a drone heading toward the Shaybah oil field, as well as a ballistic missile and three drones launched toward the country’s eastern region. A warning was also issued for the Al-Kharj governorate, southeast of Riyadh. Saudi forces later confirmed the interception of six additional drones over the Eastern Region.
United Arab Emirates: The UAE’s Defense Ministry announced its forces engaged with 10 ballistic missiles and 26 drones launched from Iran in a single day.
Qatar: The Qatari Defense Ministry reported intercepting two ballistic missiles, one cruise missile, and a number of drones originating from Iran.
Kuwait: The Kuwaiti army stated it battled a wave of incoming missiles and drones. The country’s civil aviation authority reported that a drone attack on Kuwait International Airport caused damage, though no injuries were reported.
Bahrain: The Interior Ministry activated air raid sirens across the country, urging citizens to remain calm and seek the nearest safe shelter.
United Arab Emirates (Dubai): A drone struck a high-rise building near Dubai Creek, leaving a large hole in the facade. The ensuing fire was contained with no injuries.

Additionally, a missile struck an Italian military base in Erbil, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Italy’s Defense Ministry confirmed that none of its roughly 300 soldiers stationed there were harmed. Meanwhile, the regime’s state-run ISNA and IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency claimed that a US military base in Erbil was targeted and set on fire, and that the US embassy in Riyadh was also targeted.

In cyberspace, Al Arabiya reported that hacker groups linked to the Iranian regime attacked Stryker, an American medical equipment manufacturer.
International reactions and diplomatic fallout

As the regional crisis deepens, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a phone call with the Iranian regime’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Modi expressed his deep concern over the escalation of tensions and the loss of civilian lives, reiterating India’s commitment to peace and urging dialogue and diplomacy. He noted that the safety of Indian nationals and the unhindered transit of goods and energy remain his top priorities.

Meanwhile, the regime’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, condemned a newly passed United Nations Security Council resolution. The resolution condemned the regime’s attacks on Gulf countries and Jordan. Baghaei falsely claimed the resolution distorts international law and defended the regime’s aggressive actions, baselessly asserting that Tehran “has no intention of violating the sovereignty or territorial integrity of its neighbors.”


Sadegh Pashm-Foroush writes for PMOI/MEK


Tensions Bubble Along Eritrea-Ethiopia Border

March 13, 2026 
By Africa Defense Forum

Locals in Ethiopia’s embattled Tigray region say Eritrean troops have entered border areas, raising concerns about a return to war. Infiltrations come amid a feud between the countries over Red Sea access and Asmara’s alleged support of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the region’s ruling party.


Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed also has accused Eritrean troops of committing mass killings while fighting alongside Ethiopian troops in the war that ended in 2022.

A military source anonymously told The Africa Report magazine that Eritrean forces are visible along sensitive routes in the porous border areas.

“They have entered through Tigray now,” the source said. “In Tigray, they have come as far as Mekelle, Adigrat and Zalambessa. On the Humera side, they infiltrate by posing as residents, especially through Hamdayet, a Sudanese town near Humera.”

Hamdayet has become a transit point for military movement and logistics. Residents say military vehicles move back and forth along routes linking Eritrean positions with TPLF-controlled areas in Tigray.

The Eritrean troops “disguise themselves as [Ethiopian troops] and we catch them frequently,” the military source told The Africa Report. “But those wearing their own uniforms and appearing as soldiers have entered from Mekelle to Adigrat and Zalambessa.”

The military source said Eritreans and TPLF associates in Tigray are coordinating among themselves.

“Their shared goal is to dismantle the country,” the source said. “Right now, they are leveraging internal chaos. Their main mission is to create obstacles so the government remains distracted and cannot focus on development or organizing citizens. They will not hesitate to destabilize us.”
Ethiopia Accuses, Eritrea Denies

In a February 7 letter to his Eritrean counterpart, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos accused Asmara of supporting militant groups operating in Ethiopia. Gedion demanded that Eritrea “withdraw its troops from Ethiopian territory and cease all forms of collaboration with rebel groups.” He called the alleged actions “not just provocations but acts of outright aggression.”

Two days later, Eritrea’s Ministry of Information said the claims were “patently false and fabricated,” describing them as part of a “spiral of hostile campaigns against Eritrea for more than two years.”

“The government of Eritrea has no appetite for, or desire to, engage in meaningless acrimony to add fuel and exacerbate the situation,” the statement said.

Despite Eritrea’s denial, the Ethiopian Army has moved large amounts of troops and weaponry toward Tigray’s borders. Locals told Agence France-Presse that they feared a return to civil war. The previous Tigray conflict killed at least 600,000 people between 2020 and 2022.
TPLF Tensions

Tensions between Abiy and the TPLF run high. The TPLF is embroiled in a power struggle with the Tigray Interim Administration, appointed by Abiy in 2023 as part of the Pretoria Agreement that ended the previous war.

The Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) on January 26 entered the disputed northwestern Tigray territory of Tselemt, clashing with federal troops and militias from the neighboring Amhara region. Three days later, the TDF moved into Korem and Alamata in southern Tigray’s contested Raya district without apparent federal resistance, the International Crisis Group reported. The federal government then canceled all flights to the region and on January 31 conducted two drone strikes in central Tigray.

Leftover animosity from the civil war drives this crisis. When the war broke out in 2020, Amhara militias seized western Tigray, where hundreds of thousands of people were forced to flee. A few thousand people returned to their Tigray homes in 2024, but many faced intimidation and abuse from Amhara militias. Abiy also has stonewalled the TPLF’s demands to give control of disputed territories from Amhara back to Tigray.

Ethiopia’s destabilization holds significant security concerns for the Horn of Africa, which is experiencing armed conflict in Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan. Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan also have argued over Addis Ababa’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a hydroelectric dam on the Nile River, since 2011.

During the previous Tigray war, conflict between Ethiopia and Sudan was renewed over the fertile border region of Al Fashaga, where governance rights have been contested since the early 1900s. The continuous dispute was exacerbated by Sudan’s support for the TPLF, according to the Global Conflict Tracker.
Why Iran Is Not Iraq: Authoritarian Institutions And Regime Survival – Analysis

March 13, 2026 
By Savas Savidis

When the United States invaded Iraq in March 2003 and toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime, the military campaign lasted only a few weeks. The rapid collapse of the Iraqi state governed by Saddam created an enduring image of how quickly authoritarian systems can fall once external pressure is applied.


The Iranian regime, on the other hand, which has existed in its current form since 1979, continues to exist in 2026. However, in this year, the survival of the Iranian system is at stake. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke of regime change being pursued in Iran. In the American-Israeli war since February 28, both the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other key figures such as the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Pakpour, were killed. Other notable victims included a senior security advisor to the Ayatollah, Ali Shamkhani, and Defense Minister Asis Nassirsadeh. Even a ground invasion is reportedly being considered, according to U.S. President Trump.

Meanwhile, voices in the U.S. have drawn parallels to the Iraq war. Ted Cruz, Senator from Texas, told CNBC that it would take “a few weeks” to overthrow the Iranian regime. The Iraq war did indeed proceed quickly, but in Iran, doubts are warranted. The military analyses presented in the media over the past weeks are not the subject of this analysis. Instead, this analysis aims to show why Iran, despite numerous short-term crises – such as the Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988, the mass protests of 2009, or the women’s demonstrations of 2022 – has maintained remarkably high regime stability until today. It also explains why the current U.S.-Israeli war is unlikely to bring about a rapid regime collapse. The Iranian regime is unlikely to collapse within weeks as Saddam’s regime did in 2003.


Gerschewski’s Three-Pillar Model


To explain this, the article compares Iran’s regime with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.

For the operationalization of regime stability in both countries, the theoretical three-pillar model of Johannes Gerschewski (2013) will be used. The political scientist argues that authoritarian regimes secure their hold on power through three pillars: legitimacy, co-optation, and repression. All three pillars complement each other and are important for maintaining existing structures. Gerschewski argues that authoritarian regimes require not only repression but also a degree of societal acceptance. He describes legitimacy, based on Max Weber’s definition, as “(…) the ‘belief in legitimacy’ in the validity of the political order by those subject to rule (…)”.

The second pillar, co-optation, refers to other relevant state actors beyond the ruling elite. These can be, as Gerschewski notes, military or economic elites of the country. These actors must be strategically integrated into political negotiation processes institutionally and economically, as they possess resources and could pose a threat to the existing regime.

Repression, the most well-known and visible form of authoritarianism, refers to the state suppression of political opponents or even the entire population. This pillar can become particularly prominent when the other two pillars falter. Gerschewski distinguishes in his model between subtle and restrictive forms of repression. The use of armed force, as in Iran during the mass demonstrations in December 2025 and January 2026, is an example of the harsher pillar of repression. According to the model, internet shutdowns in response to protests in Iran can be considered a soft form of repression.

The next step involves a brief comparison between the regimes in Iran and Iraq.


Saddam’s Iraq

Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq from 1979 until his overthrow in 2003. He came to power through a coup. The country’s dominant party, the Ba’th Party, was, alongside the military and the bureaucracy, one of the three major institutions of the country. However, since 1968, when the party came to power, it was the most important and influential. Saddam Hussein’s pillars of power shifted over the years increasingly from legitimacy toward repression and co-optation.

At the beginning of his first term as president in the 1980s, he deliberately relied on a mixture of socio-economic welfare programs and the construction of a personality cult to strengthen the legitimacy of his regime, especially during wartime with Iran. This included, as Divya Malhotra writes: “Industrial modernization, increased access to education, better infrastructure and improvement in health facilities.” Through this, he gained the support of many people in the country. At the same time, the construction of statues and the omnipresence of Saddam in public life created a fusion of personal and national identity. Ba’th nationalism, originally pan-Arab in nature, transformed into an exclusively Iraqi nationalism. The legitimacy of the regime also grew through the Iran-Iraq war, initiated by Saddam. Saddam could present himself to the population as the defender of the nation against a Persian threat. He drew historical reference to the struggle between Arab Muslims and Persian forces in the 7th century and saw his own war against the Islamic Republic as a continuation of this struggle.

This changed, however, when the war ended in 1988 with a ceasefire. The population’s belief in the strength of the regime consequently suffered, especially in the 1990s. This was also due to external stress factors such as UN sanctions, which, according to studies, cost hundreds of thousands of Iraqis their lives.


Co-optation in Saddam’s regime was based primarily on the principle of neo-tribalism. After the end of the Iran-Iraq war, the regime secured the loyalty of local tribal leaders (Shaykhs) to maintain its own power base and prevent uprisings. By appointing followers from his own al-Bu Nasir tribe (Tikrit) to key positions in the military and security apparatus, he strengthened the regime. Many soldiers of the Republican Guard came from Saddam’s home region Tikrit, which also served his own protection. Saddam tied members to himself and his regime through privileges such as new cars. The Ba’th Party, as the central institution of the country, was also used as an element of co-optation. The party sought to gain large segments of the population as members, with women playing an important role. Although they lacked practical decision-making power, this way participants felt part of the state and regime.

Repression in Saddam’s regime increased particularly in the 1990s. This pillar was mainly based on the feared civilian intelligence service Mukhabarat, led by his half-brother. It ensured political and violent suppression of opponents and regime adversaries. The military, especially the Republican Guard, as well as the paramilitary militia Saddam Fedajin, were also key elements of repression. These forces were deployed to crush uprisings such as the 1991 Shiite revolt in southern Iraq, as well as Kurdish insurgencies in the north.

While the Saddam regime ultimately fell to the U.S. invasion in 2003, maintaining the system would have become increasingly difficult even without that war. As mentioned at the beginning, in the 1990s, increased reliance on the pillar of repression emerged from the strengthening of legitimacy and co-optation. This was partly due to external stress factors, such as the failed invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and the resulting UN sanctions. These brought the country’s economy into serious difficulties. However, internal developments in the regime – like the sectarian divisions with Shiites – also caused increasing problems. The Anfal operation in northern Iraq, in which tens of thousands of citizens – mostly Kurds – were killed, including through use of chemical weapons, revived sectarian tensions in the country. Saddam’s plan to unite the Sunni population behind him failed as he alienated other groups in the country. Iraq’s population consisted largely of a Shiite majority ruled by a Sunni-dominated political elite under Saddam. Saddam’s Arabization policy divided the country and continues to create tensions in the multi-sectarian political system.

Saddam’s governance model relied – especially toward the end – on a personality cult, which was based on the co-optation of loyal tribes and families as well as repressive state power. The weakness of the system was the declining legitimacy of the regime over years due to external and internal factors. This was linked to a personal fixation on Saddam Hussein as the leading figure of the model. As Gerschewski’s model shows, a regime loses its binding power and thus legitimacy when – like in Iraq – Saddam, as a symbol of national strength and unity, no longer enjoys credibility. The system and the party of the regime were highly dependent on one person, making them very vulnerable to internal and external weakening.


Institutionalized Stability in Iran

The Islamic Republic of Iran has existed since 1979. With the overthrow of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the monarchy was replaced by a theocratic-presidential system. In this system, the Supreme Leader (Ayatollah) makes all important decisions. In addition to political power – he commands the country’s armed forces and can dismiss the president – he is also the religious leader of all Shia believers in the country. Unlike Saddam’s Iraq, Iran does not have only one party to vote for, but formally offers the option of multiple candidates. This is evident, for example, in the election of the president every four years or the selection of parliament. The elections, however, are not fair, and candidates are vetted for loyalty to the religious-political ruling system before being allowed to run.


The legitimacy of the Iranian regime overlaps with Saddam’s rule in some respects, but only minimally.

Like Saddam, the revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the 1980s -particularly due to the Iran-Iraq war – relied on nationalism. He referred to the war against Iraq as the “Holy Defense” (Defa-e Moqadas) and promoted the image of a homogeneous unity through the fusion of nation and religion. The collective identity that the young Islamic Republic consolidated also acted domestically as a bulwark against regime opponents. In this way, Khomeini was able to position the Mullah regime as the savior of Shi’ism. Unlike Saddam’s nationalism, the regime in Tehran derives its claim to power from religion. Moreover, the Iranian regime was able to portray itself, in contrast to the overthrown monarchy of the Shah and the colonial history of the Middle East, as a fighter against Western imperialism.

The personality cult is also omnipresent in Iran – photos of Ayatollahs Khomeini and Ali Khamenei hang everywhere – but the legitimacy of the Iranian system is broader, both ideologically and institutionally.

When the U.S. and Israel killed regime chief Ali Khamenei in the war at the end of February 2026, the system did not collapse, as some observers had predicted. This is because Iran’s regime stability – even despite formal concentration of power – is not dependent on a single personality. This is a key difference from Iraq, where the overthrow of Saddam triggered a de facto collapse of the regime.

While the Iranian regime initially still relied heavily on the popularity of Revolutionary Leader Ruhollah Khomeini – in a 1979 referendum, 98 percent voted for the establishment of the Islamic Republic – over the years it shifted toward repressive measures.

The co-optation pillar in Iran primarily consists of religious, economic, and security elites. While Saddam relied on neo-tribalism and tribal networks, the Iranian regime co-opts economic elites, including networks often referred to as Aghazadeh – the politically connected families of senior clerics and officials who benefit from privileged access to economic resources. Clerical elites are incorporated into the system through influential positions within the state’s religious and political institutions, such as the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts. In this way, religious elites are tied to the regime both ideologically and materially, reinforcing loyalty through economic privileges. Statistical data on the political elite of the Islamic Republic indicate that more than half of Iran’s presidents and parliamentary speakers have been clerics, highlighting the central role of religious authorities in the country’s key governing institutions.

Another central power factor, for many observers even the central one in today’s regime, is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which combines military power with vast economic influence. According to media estimates, they currently control about half of the country’s economy, including ports, agriculture, and infrastructure (oil). Originally, revolutionary leader Khomeini founded the Guard to protect himself, like Saddam in Iraq, against disloyal military forces. Today, in 2026, the elite force is considered by experts to be better armed and funded than the regular army (Artesh). Among other things, they control the ballistic missile program, a central element of the regime’s defense. While the IRGC serves as a central pillar of the regime’s power, its vast autonomy and economic influence also make it a potential rival to the civilian leadership. The Mullah regime, while dependent on the Guard – both defensively and economically – can also be seen in reverse: the Guard depends on the status quo of the theocratic system and would lose its privileges in state and economy in the event of a regime collapse.


The repression pillar, which served as the backbone of Saddam’s power, has also grown in Iran over the past decades. It can first be noted that the suppression of opponents and regime adversaries is mainly carried out by two actors: the Pasdaran (Revolutionary Guards) and the Basij militia. Here, a key parallel to Saddam’s regime emerges. He also relied on a Republican Guard and a Special Republican Guard (SRG) founded in the 1990s for his protection. The similarity between the Pasdaran and Basij in Iran and the Guards in Iraq lies primarily in unconditional ideological loyalty and dependence on the existing regime.

The Revolutionary Guards have repeatedly been deployed to suppress large protest movements. The Basij militia, on the other hand, recruits volunteers and is organized paramilitarily. For example, it monitors whether women comply with the public hijab requirement. Under the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005-2013), the influence of the Revolutionary Guards continued to grow. The suppression of the Green Movement in 2009, protesting election fraud, as well as the violent response to the “Women, Life, Freedom” protests across the country in 2022 (mainly led by women), led to increasing repression escalation. In the mass demonstrations of December 2025 and January 2026, again triggered by the economic crisis, thousands of people were reportedly killed violently, suppressed again by the power apparatus.

Since the proclamation of the Islamic Republic, the regime has lost significant legitimacy, which can be explained using Gerschewski’s three-pillar model: the legitimacy of a regime depends on performance and “performative binding force.” Due to corruption in the state sector, where ideological loyalty rather than competence is rewarded, and international economic sanctions, the regime loses legitimacy. Increasing repression attempts to compensate for this loyalty deficit, and the co-optation pillar also appears largely intact, but it remains uncertain how long violence and suppression can maintain the existing system of rule.

From the regime’s perspective, Iran has a major advantage over Iraq: sectarian fault lines are not as pronounced, as approximately 90 percent of Iranians adhere to the Shia faith.

Unlike Saddam’s highly personalist regime, the Islamic Republic was built as a system that can absorb leadership losses without collapsing.

What distinguishes Iran from Saddam’s Iraq is not the absence of repression, but the presence of institutions that bind elites to the regime and regulate succession.

This analysis shows that the religious Mullah regime in Iran is not comparable to the personalist Saddam system in Iraq. According to research (Barbara Geddes, Beatriz Magaloni), personalist systems are more vulnerable to instability during leadership transitions. Since Saddam’s political authority was primarily legitimized through his personality cult, his regime would have faced problems even without the U.S. war upon his death. The elite cohesion that Gerschewski describes would not have existed, and an open power struggle for his position could have occurred.

In Iran, by contrast, a more institutionalized system exists. The legitimacy of the regime is not dependent on a single person. Succession mechanisms in case of need are clearer and bureaucratized, as demonstrated after the deaths of the two Ayatollahs in 1989 and 2026. Even during ongoing hostilities in February 2026 against the U.S./Israel, the regime succeeded in installing Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader. In one respect, Ted Cruz is correct: “Iran is not Iraq.”


Savas Savidis

Savas Savidis holds a Bachelor's degree in Social Sciences from the University of Augsburg and a Master's degree in Political Science from the University of Vienna. Currently, he works as a freelance journalist in Germany. His research interests include migration & integration studies, diaspora research and authoritarianism & regime stability.
World Should Redouble Efforts To End Sudan War – Analysis



People who have fled El Fasher arrive in Tawila in North Darfur, Sudan. Photo Credit: UNOCHA

March 13, 2026 
By Dr. Majid Rafizadeh


As the devastating conflict in Sudan approaches the start of its fourth year, the international community is facing an urgent problem. The war, which erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, has evolved into one of the gravest humanitarian catastrophes of this century.

However, despite the immense scale of destruction and the suffering that the Sudanese population is enduring, the war has long been overshadowed by other global crises.

Millions of civilians in Sudan are enduring displacement, hunger, violence and the collapse of essential services. As a result, it is imperative that the international community gives adequate attention to Sudan and intensifies efforts to end the conflict. This requires sustained diplomatic engagement and expanded humanitarian aid.

What began as a power struggle within Sudan’s military establishment rapidly transformed into a nationwide conflict that has engulfed major cities, destroyed critical infrastructure and fractured the already fragile political order.

The capital, Khartoum, has become one of the principal battlegrounds, but violence has also spread across multiple regions of the country, including the already volatile area of Darfur. As the conflict intensified, Sudan’s state institutions began to collapse, leaving large portions of the population without effective governance, security or access to basic services.

The humanitarian consequences of the war have been catastrophic and continue to worsen. Millions of civilians have been forced to flee their homes, producing one of the largest displacement crises in the world. Vast numbers of families have sought refuge within Sudan’s borders, while others have crossed into neighboring countries such as Chad, South Sudan and Egypt.

This mass movement of people has placed enormous strain on fragile regional systems and humanitarian infrastructures. Camps for the displaced are overcrowded and under-resourced, while host communities struggle to accommodate the influx of refugees fleeing violence and insecurity.

The collapse of Sudan’s healthcare system is one of the most critical issues to address. Hospitals have reportedly been destroyed or abandoned, medical personnel have fled conflict zones and the supply of lifesaving medicines has been severely disrupted. In many regions, healthcare facilities are no longer operational, leaving civilians without access to treatment for injuries, infectious diseases or chronic conditions.

At the same time, there are widespread food shortages because agricultural production has declined, markets have collapsed and supply routes have become increasingly dangerous. As a result, large segments of the population are facing severe food insecurity, with humanitarian organizations warning of the risk of widespread famine in several regions.

Another facet of the conflict is the human cost, which is particularly devastating for vulnerable people, including children and women. Millions of children have been deprived of education as schools have been destroyed, closed or repurposed as shelters for displaced families. In addition, malnutrition among children has risen sharply.

Women and girls face heightened risks of violence, exploitation and displacement, especially in areas where law enforcement institutions have effectively ceased to function. This is likely to create a lost generation shaped by war, deprivation and the absence of stable institutions.

It is alarming that despite the magnitude of this humanitarian catastrophe, the war in Sudan has often received limited attention from the international media and global leadership. This means Sudan’s tragedy risks becoming a forgotten war.

The consequences of neglecting the Sudan war could be severe. Prolonged instability in Sudan carries serious implications for the broader region, including the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, where fragile political systems and economic vulnerabilities already pose significant challenges. Continued conflict could also exacerbate refugee flows, fuel cross-border insecurity and deepen regional instability.

Some diplomatic initiatives have emerged in an effort to halt the fighting and create a pathway toward a political settlement. Among the most viable and notable efforts is the diplomatic framework advanced by a group of countries commonly referred to as the “Quad” — Saudi Arabia, the US, Egypt and the UAE.


This is a practical and viable initiative because it represents an important attempt to coordinate regional and international diplomatic efforts to achieve a ceasefire and a broader political transition. By bringing together key regional stakeholders and global powers, the Quad framework aims to encourage negotiations between the warring factions and establish conditions conducive to peace.

One of its most important pillars is recognizing that the Sudan conflict cannot be resolved through military means alone. As a result, it is focusing on a phased process that would begin with a humanitarian ceasefire, allowing aid organizations to deliver urgently needed assistance to civilians trapped in conflict zones.

Such a pause is important because it could create space for broader negotiations aimed at establishing a permanent ceasefire and initiating a transitional political process. The final objective of these efforts is to facilitate the emergence of a civilian-led political order capable of restoring stability and governance in Sudan.

In a nutshell, as the third year of this devastating conflict draws to a close, there is an urgent need for the international community to act. The suffering of millions of civilians demands a sustained global response that combines humanitarian assistance with diplomatic engagement. Renewed diplomatic initiatives such as the Quad framework, combined with the leadership of regional institutions like the African Union, can offer viable pathways toward peace.

This article was published at Arab News

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh




Russia’s oligarch wealth overtakes the entire population’s bank savings, doubles over four years

Russia’s oligarch wealth overtakes the entire population’s bank savings, doubles over four years
Russia’s billionaires have seen their combined wealth surge to $696.5bn since the Ukraine war began, surpassing the total savings of the country’s population despite Western sanctions aimed at curbing their fortunes. / bne IntelliNews
By Ben Aris in Berlin March 12, 2026

The combined wealth of Russia’s billionaires is now $696.5bn, more than the combined savings of the entire Russian population and almost double what it was at the start of the Ukraine war, Forbes reported on March 11.

Sanctions and the economic slowed down were supposed to strip the oligarchs of their money, but in a set of unintended consequences the war in Ukraine has made them richer. Their combined wealth exceeds the household savings held in term bank deposits of RUB46.23 trillion ($587bn) as of February 1, according to the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) data. However, the calculation excludes money held in current accounts. Forbes now counts a record 155 Russian nationals listed in its annual rich list of billionaires.

The figures represent a sharp turnaround from 2022, when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered sweeping western sanctions and a collapse in the Russian stock market. Much of the rich list wealth is calculated from evaluating the shares they own in their companies listed on stock markets. At that time, the combined wealth of Russian billionaires fell to $352.8bn and the number of individuals on the list dropped to 88, according to The Moscow Times.

In addition, Western sanctions specifically targeted oligarchs, especially those that were designated “close to Putin.” Luxury yachts and European villas were a particularly popular target for asset freezes.

But the campaign was not a success. In four years, a total of some $60bn-$80bn of assets have been frozen on paper, or about 9-12% of their total wealth. However, as many of the assets were moved into Russia or restructured before sanctions could take effect. According to bne IntelliNews estimates the total oligarch money frozen since 2022 is closer to $22bn, or circa 3% of their wealth.

One of the ironies of the oligarch sanctions that were supposed to impoverish the Russian economy and generate resentment amongst Russia’s elite towards Russian President Vladimir Putin has had the opposite effect. Most oligarchs have chosen to safehaven their money by bringing it back to Russia from offshore havens around the world, and cut off from the global economy, they have doubled down on their investments in the Russian market, making them more dependent on Putin than ever. Moreover, these are amongst the best managers and most successful business members of Russian society – a boon in times of economic stress.

In a conversations with bne IntelliNews, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a former oligarch turned Kremlin critic, argued that the West should have thrown its doors open to oligarchs that wanted to leave and make it easy for them to take their money with them, as an effective way of hollowing out the Russian talent pool.

Russia is still ranked in the top five in the global oligarch count according to the Forbes Global billionaires list this year. The US continues to lead with a total headcount of 989 billionaires which is well ahead of 2nd place China with 610 and 3rd place India with 229. In Europe Germany leads with 212 billionaires followed by Russia with a total of 147.

In 2026 the richest man in Russia is Alexey Mordashov, owner of steelmaker Severstal, whose fortune is estimated at $37bn, placing him 57th globally. Vladimir Potanin, owner of Norilsk Nickel and T-Bank, ranks second among Russian billionaires and 79th worldwide after his wealth increased by $5.5bn over the past year to $29.7bn. Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov is third with an estimated net worth of $29.5bn, placing him 81st globally.

Fourteen Russians joined the billionaire list for the first time this year. Among them are brothers Ruslan and Timur Rakhimkulov, owners of the investment holdings Kafijat and MGTR Alliance, with fortunes estimated at $1.9bn and $1.8bn respectively, The Moscow Times reported on March 11. Former Krasnodar region governor and agriculture minister Alexander Tkachev also entered the ranking with $1.8bn, while Vladimir Ivanov, a former Yandex programmer and co-owner of Nebius Group, debuted with $1bn.

Nevertheless Russia's super rich trail well behind the world leaders. Elon Musk tops the list with a personal net fortune of $839bn and has added almost 500bn to his wealth in just the last year alone. Next in the lineup is Larry Page and Sergey Brin, the Co founders of Google, who were worth $257bn and $237bn respectively. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is in 3rd place it will stop Bernard arms, chairman and CEO of the fashion company LVMH is the only non American to make it into the top ten with an estimated fortune of $171bn he's also the only one in the top ten who didn't make his money from technology.

Geographically America remains the most important region however the emerging markets are starting to produce their own members of the ultra-rich club. China has long ago established its credentials as an ex-emerging market with over 600 and among the notable female newcomers was China’s Zhou Xiaoping, who is the cofounder of Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems and entered the list with the highest female self-made fortune of $3.8 billion.

But some truly emerging markets are starting to produce their first billionaires. This year saw the first from Afghanistan and Pakistan: Afghan national Mirwais Azizi is a 63-year-old real estate developer based in Dubai, and Pakistan's Sualeh Asif is only 26 and co-founded AI coding tool Cursor in the US with three friends from MIT.

 

 You will find more infographics at Statista  

You will find more infographics at Statista

IEA calls Middle East oil shock "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”

IEA calls Middle East oil shock
The International Energy Agency warns that war in the Middle East and the disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz are triggering the largest oil supply shock in modern market history. / bne IntelliNews
By Ben Aris in Berlin March 13, 2026

 

The war in the Middle East is triggering what the International Energy Agency called "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market” in its latest monthly oil report.

“The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the Paris-based agency said in the last update. It added that “Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 mb/d. In the absence of a rapid resumption of shipping flows, supply losses are set to increase.”

Michelle Wiese Bockmann, shipping and commodities analyst, said the figures pointed to an unprecedented shock to the global oil system. “We estimate that crude production is currently being curtailed by at least 8 mb/d, with a further 2 mb/d of condensates and NGLs shut in,” she said. “Major supply reductions are seen in Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.”

The disruption is reverberating most strongly through Asia, the largest buyer of Middle Eastern crude shipped via the Strait of Hormuz. According to the IEA, China accounts for 37% of exports from the region, or more than 5.2 mb/d, followed by India at 14% or 2.1 mb/d, while Japan and South Korea each account for roughly 12%, or about 1.7 mb/d.

“At barely a week’s navigation from Hormuz, India’s exposure to lost supply will be the hardest to compensate for in the near term,” the IEA said, highlighting the Middle East Gulf supplied 40% of India’s 4.9 mb/d of crude imports in 2025. The disruptions are already spreading beyond crude. “LPG shortfalls have led to a cooking gas crunch in India, with two-thirds of the country’s LPG demand effectively blocked.”

Refined fuel markets are also tightening rapidly. Gulf producers exported 3.3 mb/d of refined products and 1.5 mb/d of liquefied petroleum gas in 2025, but more than 3 mb/d of refining capacity in the region has already shut because of attacks and a lack of viable export routes.

“That’s why transport fuel costs are rising faster than crude,” Wiese Bockmann said. “Not only will filling up your car cost more for a while yet, but airline tickets are going to skyrocket.”

The Strait’s closure is also forcing export-oriented refineries to cut runs as storage tanks are filled. “More than 4 mb/d of refining capacity is at risk,” according to the IEA.

Despite the supply shock, global inventories remain elevated. The IEA estimates “global observed inventories of crude and products are currently assessed at more than 8.2bn barrels, the highest level since February 2021”.

Even if the waterway reopens soon, the logistics of restarting flows could take time. The agency cited obstacles including maritime insurance, seafarers’ refusal to work in a war zone and the challenge of co-ordinating dozens of vessels through the narrow channel without a governing authority.

“The consequences will ripple through for months,” Wiese Bockmann said. “Shut-in upstream production will take weeks and, in some cases, months, to return to pre-crisis levels depending on the degree of field complexity and the timing for workers, equipment and resources to return to the region.”

Iran’s oil sales soar past pre-war levels

Iran’s oil sales soar past pre-war levels
  / bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews March 13, 2026

Iran’s oil exports have bounced back to surpass pre-war levels, data from analytics firm Kpler show, as regional producers have scaled back production due to difficulties exporting the commodity through the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

According to Kpler, since the outbreak of the US-Israeli war against Iran on February 28, nine tankers have loaded Iranian oil and departed the Persian Gulf, mostly heading towards China, which has been identified by tracking firms as the main buyer of Iranian barrels over the past few years.

Data indicate that tankers have been loading an average of 2.1mn barrels of Iranian crude oil per day, exceeding Iran’s daily exports of 2mn barrels in early February and before the conflict began.

At least 13.7mn barrels of Iranian oil have made their way from the narrow waterway to China since the start of the war, according to figures obtained from ship-tracking companies, Tasnim News Agency wrote on March 12.

While major shipping companies have halted operations in the region, tankers linked to Iran continue to sail through the strait.

The increase in Iranian oil loadings comes despite vessels being hesitant to brazenly navigate the Strait of Hormuz, an artery through which 20% of the world’s oil passes.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has targeted at least 15 vessels since the start of the conflict for ignoring warnings about the waterway’s closure.

The IRGC says passage through the strait is unsafe due to crossfire between parties involved in the conflict. Iran is exporting more oil than it did before the war, demonstrating that Tehran maintains control over this strategic waterway.

Meanwhile, Persian Gulf oil producers, ranging from Saudi Arabia to Iraq, have reduced their output and are trying to find alternative routes other than the Strait of Hormuz.

Disruptions to oil flow in the strait have led to a sudden surge in prices, with oil fluctuating between $80 and $120 per barrel during wartime, now hovering around $100 per barrel.

Market intelligence firm IIR Energy announced that nearly 1.9mn barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil refining capacity in the Persian Gulf had been shut down due to the conflict and disruptions to oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the industry monitor, the idle refining capacity includes production fluctuations in Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Furthermore, according to a report by JP Morgan, if the Strait of Hormuz were to be blocked for two weeks, the Persian Gulf’s oil supply could fall to around 3.8mn bpd.

India negotiates with Iran for safe passage of fuel carriers

India negotiates with Iran for safe passage of fuel carriers
Randhir Jaiswal - spokesperson if India's Ministry of External Affairs / Randhir Jaiswal - spokesperson MoEA - India - X
By Bno - Aditya Pareek March 13, 2026

India is feeling the bite of the global energy crunch after the ongoing war in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider West Asia region has made it risky for cargo ships to transit through the region without getting hit by Iranian weapons.

According to a March 12 2026 press briefing by India's Ministry of External Affairs(MEA), their minister incharge Dr. S. Jaishankar has held three separate conversations with Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi.

During these conversations, Jaishankar has purportedly discussed India’s national interests and energy security needs being affected by the attacks on shipping originating or transiting through the West Asia region.

While official government sources don’t talk about an agreement being reached with Iran, it is likely that India has secured some sort of arrangement, with Tehran agreeing to not target vessels bound for India that pre-notify their presence to Iranian authorities.

Iran has reportedly made similar arrangements with Bangladesh, which has also requested higher supplies of diesel from India which is a major exporter of refined petroleum products. India's MEA has acknowledged the request but has said that it remains under review.

However, the enforceability of these arrangements is uncertain, as misidentifications during combat operations are a phenomena no country or forces are unacquainted with and since the beginning of military operations against Iran, the US Air Force has lost three F-15 fighter jets to friendly fire.

Iran which has suffered decapitation strikes against its leadership including its former Supreme Leader Ayattolah Ali Khamenei is even less likely to be able to effectively coordinate the various branches and commanders of its forces operating weapons platforms across the country and in the Strait of Hormuz which can sink vessels.

As a result, this gap in leadership and communication could easily lead to accidental targeting of vessels heading to countries Iran has made transit agreements with.

According to a press release by India’s Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, 70% of India’s crude imports are routed outside Strait of Hormuz, however over 60% of its liquified petroleum gas (LPG) which is the main cooking fuel for Indian households and the restaurant industry have been impacted.

New Delhi has increased domestic LPG production by 25% and has taken steps to increase inventory and availability to consumers by invoking the Essential Commodities Act.

India consumes around 189mn metric standard cubic metres per day(MMSCMD) and produces around 97.5MMSCMD, leaving 91MMSCMD which is slightly less than half of its requirement dependent on foreign supplies.

While Indian social media is already abuzz with people comparing the cost of cooking with electric induction stoves over the ubiquitous LPG stoves it remains to be seen if the transition is temporary or will remain a trend even after the conflict ends and energy supplies become normalised.

New Delhi has also clarified that “28 Indian-flagged vessels are operating in the Persian Gulf region. Of these, 24 vessels are located west of the Strait of Hormuz carrying 677 Indian seafarers, while 4 vessels are east of the Strait with 101 Indian seafarers onboard”.

Furthermore, while there has been no official acknowledgement of the fact, it is understood that China has a deep maritime transit relationship and energy dependency on Iran. Beijing is also believed to have supported Tehran through decades of US, Western and UN sanctions with both cash and military supplies including advanced hightech components for its military industrial complex.

As such, it is highly likely that Iran is paying back those favours or more accurately continuing the favourable deals it cuts with Beijing even under the ongoing kinetic-threat rich environment in the Persian Gulf region.

Iran agrees to provide safe passage to Bangladeshi oil and LNG vessels

Iran agrees to provide safe passage to Bangladeshi oil and LNG vessels
/ Giorgos Barazoglou - Unsplash
By bno - Mumbai Office March 13, 2026

Iran has officially agreed to grant safe passage to Bangladeshi oil and LNG ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, Middle East Monitor has reported.

As per the new deal, Bangladeshi ships need to inform Iranian authorities before entering the Strait of Hormuz to ensure secure passage. The move comes as the Bangladesh authorities boost efforts to stabilise the supply of fuel in the local market, Middle East Monitor said in a post on social media platform X.

A consignment of 27,000 tonnes of diesel recently docked at Chattogram port in Bangladesh, with four more vessels like to arrive soon. Bangladesh is also planning to source 300,000 tonnes of diesel from other sources to meet energy demand in April.

Local Bangladeshi media has not confirmed this news. New Age reported on March 13 that Dhaka has sought safe passage for its vessels. Energy, power and mineral resources minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud on March 12 said that they were expecting a positive reply from Tehran soon in this regard. This has been not been greenlit by Tehran yet, the newspaper reported.

Bangladesh, which imports about 6.2mn tonnes of crude and refined petroleum products, relies heavily on the Strait directly and indirectly, New Age added.

It imports about 1mn tonnes of crude oils from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates while 5.2mn tonnes of refined petroleum oils from China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh has formally requested the United States grant a temporary waiver that would allow it to buy crude oil from Russia, saying this was needed to maintain stable energy supplies in the domestic market, The Daily Star reported.

Dhaka wants an arrangement similar to the one extended to India, which has been allowed to continue importing Russian crude under a temporary waiver despite Western sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine.

Bangladesh’s finance and planning minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury confirmed that the matter was raised during discussions with US officials.

Dhaka says that access to discounted Russian crude could help ease pressure on its foreign exchange reserves and stabilise domestic fuel supplies. The government has said the request reflects the need to protect economic stability at a time of volatile global energy markets.

During the meeting with the US ambassador to Bangladesh, Brent Christensen, Bangladeshi officials noted that India had already been granted a temporary exemption to continue purchasing Russian oil, and said Bangladesh should be considered for a similar arrangement.

According to the report, US officials indicated that the request would be conveyed to authorities in Washington for consideration. Dhaka is now awaiting a response from the US administration on whether such a waiver could be granted.


Around 70% of India’s crude oil imports now bypass Hormuz

Around 70% of India’s crude oil imports now bypass Hormuz
/ bne IntelliNews
By bno - Mumbai bureau March 13, 2026

India now sources approximately 70% of its crude oil imports via supply lines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, significantly cutting the country’s exposure to disruptions resulting from the prevailing tensions in the Middle East, the government of India said in a recent press release.

Senior officials from India’s oil and gas ministry, foreign ministry, ministry of ports, ministry of shipping and waterways and ministry of information and broadcasting provided details about the steps taken by the India government during a press meet held in New Delhi on March 11.

India’s daily crude oil consumption stands at 5.5mn barrels. Officials said diversified sourcing from around 40 countries has helped secure volumes in excess of what would normally have arrived through the Strait of Hormuz during this period. Two additional crude cargoes are already on their way to the country and will help in further boosting supplies in the days ahead. Indian refineries are operating at very high-capacity utilisation levels, in some cases exceeding 100%, they said.

The government is also focusing on the natural gas sector. India’s cumulative natural gas demand is about 189 mmscmd, out of which about 97.5 mmscmd is produced locally. Approximately 47.4 mmscmd of supply has been impacted by the force majeure conditions. This has resulted in sourcing from alternative suppliers and routes. Indian gas supplies have secured LNG cargoes from new sources and two shipments are currently on the way to India, the officials stated.

To take care of the distribution part, the government issued a Natural Gas Control Order on March 9, 2026 under the Essential Commodities Act to prioritise supplies for vital industries. Piped natural gas for domestic cooking usage and compressed natural gas for transport will continue to get full supply, while the industrial sector connected to the gas grid will get about 80% of their previous six-month average allocation. Fertiliser plants will get about 70%, and refineries and petrochemical plants will cut usage by approximately 35% so that priority sectors remain protected.

The government has also announced emergency measures to address the liquefied petroleum gas supplies. Approximately 60% of India’s LPG consumption is met through imports, and about 90% of the imports are routed through the Strait of Hormuz. To effectively handle the disruptions, refineries and petrochemical complexes have been asked to reroute streams such as propane, butane, propylene and butane to the LPG pool, boosting local LPG output by almost 25%. Almost the whole of the domestic LPG production is now being directed toward household demand.

In case of non-domestic LPG priority is being given to vital entities like hospitals and educational institutions. A committee has been set up to review allocations for commercial consumers such as hotels and restaurants.

Authorities said few instances of panic booking and hoarding were reported, but the average LPG delivery time remains 2.5 days. Steps such as expanding the Delivery Authentication Code system to about 90% of consumers and hiking the minimum gap between bookings from 21 days to 25 days have been announced to handle demand and stop diversion.

The officials also stated that 28 Indian-flagged ships are at present operating in the Persian Gulf. Out of these 28 vessels, 24 vessels are carrying 677 Indian seafarers and are located west of the Strait of Hormuz, while four ships with 101 Indian seafarers are located to the east of the strait.

Advisories have also been issued by the government requesting Indian-flagged ships to take into account enhanced security protocols. Ship managers, recruitment companies and Indian missions in the area have been asked to ensure help wherever needed. Port operations across India continue to be normal, while the government is monitoring vessel movements and cargo flows to maintain export-import trade.

In its update, the Ministry of External Affairs said that there are around 10mn Indians residing in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Advisories have also been issued by Indian missions from time to time. These missions have also helped stranded travellers, mostly tourists and transit passengers, to fly back to India via flights from cities such as Muscat, Riyadh and Jeddah.

Approximately 9,000 Indian nationals are residing in Iran at present. The Indian mission there is in close touch with the community, while students and pilgrims have been relocated from Tehran to safer areas in the country. Help is also being provided for land border crossings into Armenia and Azerbaijan for onward travel to India.

Officials confirmed that two Indians died and one remains missing following attacks on merchant vessels in the region.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting said the Indian home secretary has held talks with various state governments and advised strict action against hoarding and black marketing of essential items while making sure that availability of supplies remain uninterrupted. States and union territories have also been directed to appoint official spokespersons and provide verified updates through government channels.

Officials said the government remains vigilant about the developments in the Middle East while coordinating across ministries to safeguard India’s energy security, maritime trade and the welfare of its citizens residing overseas.