El Niño threat to Vietnam coffee crop should not be underestimated, official says

By

Reuters

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August 27, 2026 

Coffee beans are held by an employee at Club Coffee's plant in Toronto on Thursday, Nov. 2, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young

Vietnam’s 2026/27 

Robusta coffee crop could see a slight increase in output, though the threat posed by this year’s El Niño should not be underestimated, Thai Nhu Hiep, vice chairman of the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association, told Reuters.

The slight increase in output should come as areas replanted in recent years enter phases of more stable yields, Hiep, who is also chairman and CEO of Vietnamese coffee exporter Vinh Hiep Co., Ltd, said late on Thursday.

Though he did not give a production forecast of his own, Hiep pointed to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which expects Vietnamese coffee production of 32 million 60-kilogram bags in the 2026/27 crop, the overwhelming majority of which is robusta coffee.

However, the threat from the El Niño weather phenomenon cannot be ignored, Hiep said, adding that Vietnam’s central highlands region is particularly vulnerable to extreme weather patterns during crucial parts of the crop cycle.

“For Vietnam, adapting to climate change is no longer a future concern. It has become an urgent necessity to safeguard coffee production,” Hiep said while in Brazil for an international coffee event.

Vietnam’s coffee industry is collaborating with farmers to develop a specialty robusta profile based on quality, helping the country’s beans gain recognition for their unique origins, he said.

“We believe this approach will boost export value while enabling farmers to capture a larger share of the value generated throughout the coffee supply chain,” he said.

The country is also building data infrastructure to help meet European Union rules on traceability intended to prevent deforestation caused by crops like coffee, Hiep said.

Twice delayed due to its complexity, the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) requires importers of commodities and related goods to prove their products weren’t grown on recently deforested land.

“EUDR should not be viewed merely as a barrier to exports,” Hiep said. “It also presents an opportunity for Vietnam to build a coffee supply chain that is more transparent, sustainable, and competitive in the long run.”

Reporting by Oliver Griffin; Editing by Kirsten Donovan

 

U.S. farmers to harvest second-largest corn crop ever despite lower yields

By

Reuters

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August 27, 2026 

A child walks past a patch of corn at Farmfest, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026, in Morgan, Minn. (AP Photo/Ellen Schmidt)

CHICAGO — U.S. farmers will harvest their second-largest corn crop on record this autumn as lower yields caused by adverse summer weather were more than offset by larger plantings, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday.

The USDA projected the average 2026 U.S. corn yield at 180.7 bushels per acre, down from its forecast of 183 bpa a month ago, while the agency’s harvested acreage outlook increased to 88.6 million acres, from 87.4 million acres a month ago. Production increased slightly to 16.013 billion bushels from USDA’s July forecast of 16 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the USDA trimmed its 2026 U.S. yield forecast to 52.7 bpa from 53 bpa a month earlier. Production was projected at 4.519 billion bushels, up from 4.475 billion bushels a month earlier.

HEAT, DROUGHT STRESS CORN

Corn yields were dragged lower as severe heat and intensifying drought stressed pollinating crops in parts of the western Midwest last month, while excessive rain further east drowned fields and washed away soil nutrients.

This summer’s U.S. weather woes came as wars disrupted supply chains and drove up fuel and fertilizer costs, as heat seared European crops and forecasters warned that a super El Niño could further clip global food production.

• Latest updates on commodities here

But the USDA raised its outlook for harvested corn acres, which more than offset the drop in per-acre yields. As a result, U.S. farmers are expected to reap their second-largest corn crop on record, behind only the 2025 crop of 17.021 billion bushels.

Chicago Board of Trade corn Cv1 and soybean Sv1 futures extended gains after the USDA released its forecast.

U.S. corn crop conditions assessed by the USDA stabilized last week after three straight weeks of declines caused by stressful Midwest weather. Soybean condition ratings dipped slightly as the crop was entering its key pod-filling stage of development this month.

The latest condition ratings for both crops were the lowest for early August since 2023.

Analysts polled by Reuters, on average, expected the USDA to trim its corn yield view to 182.4 bpa and production to 15.934 billion bushels, along with a 76,000-acre cut to harvested area. For soybeans, the USDA was expected to reduce the average yield to 52.9 bpa and production to 4.472 billion bushels, while harvested area was expected to rise by 163,000 acres.

Stronger corn exports and a smaller supply to start the season were expected to reduce U.S. stocks at the end of the 2026/27 season to 1.653 billion bushels, from its 1.790-billion-bushel estimate in July. Soybean ending stocks for 2026/27 were seen at 320 million bushels, compared with 310 million previously.

(Reporting by Karl Plume in ChicagoEditing by Rod Nickel)

El Niño fears drove record sugar futures open interest, ICE exchange says

By

Reuters

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August 19, 2026

Trading Charts on a Display (Source: da-kuk/Getty Images)

NEW YORK — Investors, food companies and commodities traders, driven by fears that the El Niño climate event could hurt global sugar production, drove record-high open interest in sugar contracts last week, the Intercontinental Exchange said on Wednesday.

ICE said open interest, the number of outstanding contracts, in raw SBc1 and refined sugar LSUc1 futures reached 2.3 million contracts on Friday, surpassing the previous record from February 2010.

“Supply and demand balances are shifting, a strong El Niño forecast through January 2027 is weighing on supply outlooks, and uncertainty around some of the world’s largest producing regions is prompting participants to hedge across the curve,” said Matthew Ryan, ICE’s senior director for soft commodities.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center sees a 90 per cent chance of a very strong El Niño between the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027. It estimated a 69 per cent chance of a “historic El Niño” that would be stronger than all previous ones since 1950.

Tropical commodities, including cane sugar, could be acutely exposed to a strong El Niño that would change the pattern of rain and increase temperatures.

During last week’s record sugar trading open interest, financial investors were particularly aggressive buyers, erasing the long-term bearish bet they held on raw sugar.

Funds poured a record US$2.5 billion into raw sugar contracts during the period, said market analyst Peak Trading Research.

Mills took the opportunity to sell contracts and lock in better prices for their sugar.

Below-average monsoon rains in India, the world’s second-largest producer, might hurt the sugarcane crop there, while experts fear excessive rain could disrupt the last stage of harvesting in Brazil, the world’s top grower.

(Reporting by Marcelo TeixeiraEditing by Rod Nickel)

Premiers at odds over leveraging potash in Canada's trade war with U.S.

By

The Canadian Press

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Published: August 28, 2026

Premier of Saskatchewan Scott Moe, left, and Premier of Ontario Doug Ford shake hands during a media event to sign a Memorandum of Understanding in Saskatoon on Sunday, June 1, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Liam Richards

OTTAWA — Premiers are sharply divided over whether to use Canada’s natural resources as leverage in the trade war with the U.S., and potash has emerged as a key point of contention.

Canada is a major global supplier of potash, a key ingredient in fertilizers that are vital for the agricultural sector. The U.S. imports about 85 per cent of its potash from Canada.

While Ontario’s Doug Ford is pushing to pull the most damaging levers with the U.S., Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe and Alberta’s Danielle Smith are warning about a harmful long-term backlash.

Federal politicians are also weighing in. NDP leader Avi Lewis called for an export tax on “oil, gas, thermal coal, potash and other minerals to hit Trump where it hurts.”

• Trade War coverage on BNNBloomberg.ca

Federal Green Party leader Elizabeth May agrees.

“If you’re dealing with a really large bully who’s beating you up, you really need to get out your keys, put them between your fingers, and go for soft, fleshy parts that are gonna hurt,” she told The Canadian Press.

“And that for us would be withholding potash.”

At a news conference Wednesday, Ford said cutting the U.S. off from potash would kill the American agricultural sector “overnight.”

But Moe, whose province supplies the U.S. with more than 86 per cent of the potash coming in from Canada, has said that such a move would backfire and harm Canadians.

“That would be a tremendous economic hit to our province and to our nation,” Moe said at a news conference this week, warning of job losses and price hikes.

He said Saskatchewan would not support any kind of export taxes or withholding supply, but did open the door to leveraging access to additional production in trade negotiations.

“The United States of America, most assuredly, would switch to buying potash from other nations around the world. We would lose a long-term customer to some degree.”

• Latest economic news on BNNBloomberg.ca

And while the drastically differing viewpoints of Ford and Moe may suggest cracks in the “Team Canada” approach that premiers and the prime minister have championed over the past year, one expert says it’s a matter of perspective.

“Ontario and B.C., are the provinces that are going to be hit the most by the tariffs that Trump is rolling out,” said Jim Farney, the director and Stauffer Dunning chair at the School of Policy Studies at Queen’s University.

Pieces of potash at a surplus pile at the Mosaic potash mine in Esterhazy, Sask. on Wednesday, May 3, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Liam Richards

He said he has seen some analysis suggesting Alberta and Saskatchewan will be “hardly touched” by the U.S. tariffs.

Heather Exner-Pirot, a senior fellow and director of natural resources, energy and environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, also said the tariff impact is “much more pungent” in places like Ontario with the auto and steel sectors being hit.

“Out west, we don’t talk about CUSMA, we don’t talk about the tariffs. They’re a very small part of our lives and our economy, and we’re not getting damaged and it’s not really affecting us,” Exner-Pirot, who’s also an adviser with the Business Council of Canada, told The Canadian Press.

“It is having such a different impact out West, and we don’t want it to have the same impact.”

• Latest updates on commodities here

Taking questions from reporters Wednesday, Moe said one way to leverage natural resources in trade negotiations is to barter with “access to additional production” of potash, uranium and oil.

But Exner-Pirot said such a move with potash might not make much of an impact.

“In the United States, it’s not the growing market for potash. It’s pretty saturated. They use as much as they can use, and they’re efficient at it,” she said.

The exterior of PotashCorp's (now Nutrien's) Rocanville potash plant is seen here on Wednesday Nov. 3, 2010 near Rocanville, Sask. Rocanville is approx. 250 kilometre's east of Regina. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Troy Fleece)

She also said potash companies like Nutrien started stockpiling supply in the United States to get ahead of any potential tariffs or export taxes.

“So when we say, ‘well, we’ll put an export tax on it,’ well, that won’t apply to what’s already there,” she said.

Trump administration officials have repeatedly pointed out how the U.S. has not tariffed Canadian oil, energy, uranium and potash. White House officials have indicated there’s no intention at this point to change course.

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Nick Murray, The Canadian Press

With files from Sarah Ritchie, and Kelly Geraldine Malone in Washington

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 27, 2026.